Comments by "yop yop" (@yopyop3241) on "China Will Soon Lose the Title of "World's Manufacturer" || Peter Zeihan" video.

  1. More expensive to make things = higher prices for those things = higher inflation. Zeihan is predicting protracted high inflation. The silver lining is that wages will increase even faster than inflation. The downside to that silver lining is that you’re going to need to haggle and be willing to change employers to get those higher wages.
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  2. Zeihan has always pegged China’s “sell by date” at 2030. You can paper over the problems with debt for a while, but eventually the problems get too big for that to work anymore. China’s problems get too big between now and when the last Chinese Baby Boomers hit retirement age in 2030. It’s going to get asymptotically much, much worse in China over the next few years.
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  3. It was too soon. If that were the strategy, their demographics would have told them to do it several years later. If we have another pandemic in, say, 2028, then you should be suspicious.
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  4. Imported industrial robots. In the global robotics industry, China contributes less than 1% of the value-added. Relying on imported robots isn’t a viable long term strategy.
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