Comments by "iorekby" (@iorekby) on "Will Putin win the war in Ukraine? | Stephen Kotkin and Lex Fridman" video.

  1. Tl;DR Russia has not been doing as well as it would've hoped or Putin expected. BUT Contrary to the idea that the sanctions and stilted progress will deter Putin, Mr Kotkin makes the point that Putin has a stranglehold on the Ukrainian economy, which means the West has to come up with $5-7 billion a month to pay for the Ukrainian economy. With Ukraine's economy in such a bad way, this may eventually weaken Western resolve as it becomes too expensive to keep propping up Ukraine. Hungary are dragging their feet on banning Russian oil and Turkey are slowing down Finland/Sweden joining NATO. All this plays to Putin's advantage, and while Russia is suffering in the battlefield and economy, Putin may calculate he just needs to stay the course and the Western support may erode, and then it will put him in a much stronger position.
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