Comments by "Koko" (@kokoyaro) on "Sabbatical"
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@catbertevil750 I think you're stuck in the early 90s/2000s rise of the manufacturing sector as China's main source of GDP. China's economy evolved beyond that in efforts to reduce reliance on foreign demand, a lesson they learned harder from the effect of the 2009 global financial crisis. In fact, there's a trend of their manufacturing moving to South East Asia and other parts of the world due to the rising cost within China. I was a researcher in Beijing throughout their economic reform period when this country created the strongest middle-class and became the world's largest markets for most commodities, including real estate.
You mentioned luxury apartments in Shanghai, that hints me that you also know of the Evergrande story, a company that handled almost 1400 construction projects in almost 300 cities in China. What most people don't know is that Evergrande is just one in hundreds of realestate conglomerates and sub-contractors with big portfolios in China and beyond. When you're outside China it's easy to think these numbers are exaggerated. But when you're in the country stumbling upon ginormous ghost cities like I did, built on billions of $$ debt money, then you begin to see how the real estate is a huge slice of the economic pie and why a sign of its collapse is a big deal.
If you don't trust the CCP data, search western sources like Time, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, etc... They all say the same thing: "Real Estate contributes about 30% of China's GDP, making it the single biggest contributor to China's economy."
P.S. There's a long standing policy in China that the property market is closed to foreign entities, so the Shanghai lux apartments is a far fetched fantasy if you don't hold Chinese citizenship let alone a Shanghai "hukou". Will this real-estate-induced economic crisis become severe enough to cause the CCP to relax the rules against foreign demand? That remains to be seen but highly unlikely
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