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TheThirdMan
DW REV - Cars & Mobility
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Comments by "TheThirdMan" (@thethirdman225) on "" video.
@WangMingGe Even the United States cannot support a large market for ICE vehicles. The three majors - GM, Ford and Stellantis - are all under major pressure. A lot of the trouble stems from well-established oil industry propaganda networks and conservative governments rolling back any legislation. 'Drill baby, drill' is Trump's hope to resuscitate Detroit in a dream of fat, gas-guzzling V8s from a bygone era. All those manufacturers consider themselves global manufacturers and they're not going to build anything they can't sell overseas. That's why Stellantis got rid of its runout stock of Grand Cherokee V8s by sending them to Australia before any emissions legislation could go through. They made it by the skin of their teeth. But if you think the American market wants those kinds of cars, think again. They were sent to Australia because they couldn't sell them in the US. Nobody wanted them. Stellantis's share price dropped by about 50% in 2024. What chance do they have of surviving? They couldn't stick it in China and had to leave. Now they're negotiating with Leap Motors to get back in. And that's what's going to happen: the companies that have been major players for up to a century are going to have to go cap-in-hand to China and hope the Chinese will bail them out. I don't like their chances. They have nothing to offer.
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Concerns over charging infrastructure and range anxiety are basically a non-argument. Few motorists drive more than 30 kms per day and they can charge their cars at home overnight on off-peak rates. Can't do that with ICE. Even then, this is early days. Does anyone think that petrol stations and oil refineries just sprung up overnight 120 years ago? Of course not. In fact, the requirements for EV charging stations will be lower than for ICE vehicles because people will be charging at home. I have seen a large charging area in the carpark at my local shopping centre. People charging their cars while they go off and shop. Can't do that with ICE. For longer trips, all that's needed is a charging station every 20-30 kms on main highways and one in any small town. My cousin has a Tesla and regularly drives long distances in it (>800 kms). He has even charged his car at his hotel. Range anxiety and lack of charging infrastructure are oil industry propaganda talking points. They don't really even apply any more. The shift to EVs will be driven by economics. EVs might cost more at the moment but once they reach parity - probably this year - it's game over for ICE. EVs cost about a fifth of what ICE cars cost to run. There are Tesla Model 3s with 500 kms on them that have never had a service. If an EV costs $10,000 more, you will recoup most of that in about four years in savings from fuel. If your house has solar panels it will basically cost you nothing to run. That's what the oil industry is scared of. They should be.
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The best argument for EVs is economics. ICE cars make absolutely no sense any more. The slow down in European sales figures was part of an overall decline in sales in that part of the world and was not mirrored anywhere else. The sales figures for the UK tell a different story. ICE still comprised the majority but were only 47%, with only 5% of those being diesels. EVs made up 31% of total sales in the UK and the rest were PHEVs and hybrids. This is not a reason to kickstart ICE production again.
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They're too late.
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