Comments by "" (@1987BillyBob) on "Joe Rogan rants about COVID, gets a bunch wrong" video.
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@murphy804 on the cruse ship the infection rate was high and the death rate was low. That was the point. In fact, a NEJM paper titled "Covid-19=Navigating the Uncharted" with Fauci as the lead author said
" If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."
Also you have this from a CDC report
"In a March 23 CDC report: Among 3,711 Diamond Princess passengers and crew, 712 (19.2%) had positive test results for SARS-CoV-2. Of these, 331 (46.5%) were asymptomatic at the time of testing. Among 381 symptomatic patients, 37 (9.7%) required intensive care, and nine (1.3%) died (8)."
Of the 9 that died, all were above the age of 70. If the virus was really that dangerous that number would be much higher. You also have to factor in the people who got it early on and recovered with no symptoms and thus gave negative results.
The whole point of the cruise ship data is that you had a group of people in a confined area, and yes, things were going as usual. In the article titled "The Corona Princess: Learning from a petri dish cruise (i)" it states
" Even if everything had gone as planned, the quarantine was really only for the (approximately 3700) passengers because the 1000 or so crew members still had to run the ship, as well as cook and deliver food to the passenger’s cabins. "
It was the petri dish and from there it was clear that it was not that dangerous
Sweden did have a low death rate. Again, it comes back to if the virus was really that dangerous then Sweden would have seen a very high death rate. Same with Florida which is number two in median age as a lot of older people live in FL. FL is not even number one in the US.
" Hospitals having the ability to extend their capacity doesn't mean they should be put in a position where they have to do so."
Again, that is always the case. Remember, we have a for profit healthcare system and they want to make money. Just like how a restaurant or hotel want to be near capacity, so does a hospital.
"The fact is, if this was left to run rampant, far more people would have directly died from the COVID-19 virus."
And there is nothing to back that up. Again, if it was so deadly a lot of people would have died on that cruise ship, not 9 that were all over 70. FL would have had a very high death rate, they are not even number 1 in the US. You also have to factor in weaken immune systems due to gyms being shut down, spike in alcohol abuse, etc. How many became severely ill because their immune system became weaker as they could not exercise or go outside?
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@sithwolf8017 "What would you suggest that should've been done with covid?"
I told you, and this is something we should have done prior to covid. If you are scared you stay home. We should protect the vulnerable that want to be protected. I fully support that. As I said, I had a colleague in grad school where the university offered all TAs work at home to fulfill their TA contracts. They can do that. I support that. What I am saying is that the moment you step outside of your home you are taking a risk and people should not cater to you.
It angered me when that colleague, when the mask mandate was dropped, demanded all her students wear masks. She had the option to work at home. Instead she wanted to teach lab but demanded people wear masks even though the mandate was dropped. She strong armed her students. My approach is that is that if you are scared, you stay home and we offer you work at home, grocery delivery, etc. Let others live life. We have the technology to do that. And as I said, we have the technology to do that.
"Sure, 99% would be fine, but remember that's still 80 million dead or permanently injured if covid were to spread unchecked and not taking into account comorbidities of which hundreds if not billions have at least one. That number increases with repeat infections and when taking said comorbidities into account"
And that is the same with any disease. That is the risk in life. When you have sex you know the risk of getting HIV or Herpes. What we do is tell people the risk of the disease that exist and give them options. To me one option is that they can hide and work at home. I 100% support that. For others, like me, I fully understand the risk so I take it. Just like I know the risk when I drive to work, I can get in an accident and die. I know the risk of working a football game, I can get hit and die. I know officials who have died on the field. Or in lab, there can be a nitrogen leak and I can die. I know the risks. I choose to deal with them.
" Look, I'm trying to get you to see how a virus impacts the body from a microbiologist standpoint just as you've done to get me to see yours. Have you ever actually read any of the papers on covid and its mechanisms of pathogenesis?"
I have read many papers. During lockdowns when I could not do my hobbies I did. I am telling you what you need to do is tell people the risk, give them options and go from there. Even before covid we should have always protected the vulnerable. Just like before covid we should have always washed our hands. What is funny is that prior to covid I was in grad school. I always had a bottle of hand sanitizer at my desk and used it often. I did so because I supported cleanliness. Just like during my undergrad years I worked at a restaurant and I always kept the grill area clean. Or back to grad school, I kept the area clean. This was all prior to covid. It should not have taken a "pandemic" to get people to keep their work area and hands clean. I was doing it before covid.
But the bottom line is this. I support giving people the option to hide at home if they want to and protect the vulnerable that want to be protected. We have the resources. But for others that want to live life, let them. As I said, I know the risks I take the moment I step outside of my apartment door. I know the risk driving to work where I can get in an accident and can die. I know the risk at work with the XRay spectrometers and gas cylinders involved, or a nitrogen leak. I know the risk of the disease out there I can catch. Heck, I flew the other day to Ohio and drove in a rain storm last week and I knew the risk of that.
What we do is tell people the risk and give them options.
Going back to sports, when I played football my coach, every year played a video called "See What You Hit" where it discussed the dangers of the game how it can lead to even death. I still played. i was told the risk and played. Same with covid. I know the risk.
There will never be a time in life where there will be zero risk in life. I feel you are wanting that when that will never exist. What I am saying is tell people the risk, give them options and go from there.
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@sithwolf8017 as I said, at some point the mitigation causes more damage. Going back to traffic deaths. We have traffic laws to alleviate deaths, however, it still happens. To make traffic deaths be zero we can cap vehicle speed to be 15 mph. But the damage of reduction in productivity will be worse.
It is the same with covid. Yes, locking people in their homes can stop the spread, but the damage physically, psychologically, etc. will be worst. And that was my problem. I knew the risk associated with covid and people had options to stay home. So, you stay home, let me live life because to me taking on the risk of covid to live life and do my hobbies was worth it. Just like I can work at home today and avoid taking the risk of driving to work. However, I enjoy working in the lab more.
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@sithwolf8017 That surgeon thing is a flawed comparison. They are in a highly controlled situation. A clean room, where they wash their hands, and use the mask once that they put on with clean hands. That compared to someone wearing an old ripped up shirt. Or someone wearing the same mask for weeks they grabbed off of the counter with their dirty hands while leaving home. So you can't compare the public wearing a mask to a surgeon.
1. Physically impossible to breath in our CO2? I am physically fit and I felt the difference working out with a mask on and without. I could breath much easier without it on. Because it is also not just breathing in your own CO2 but breathing in O2. Many football teams were making players wear a shield on their face mask. Not just an eye shield but over their mouth. I asked a player how they felt about it and he said they could not breath well. And funny how you went to an insult of me flunking gen chem when I taught it in grad school.
2. How is it stupid? Many people where constantly grapping their masks with dirty hands or using the same one for weeks, or even simply days (back to the surgeon comparison). What is your point on pneumonia?
Also, a damaging point on masks was the image. Just walking around seeing people blindly wear masks. There were psychological effects of not seeing someone smile. Or just the depressing sight similar to some mark of shame placed on society. Also, why not make people wear hazmat suites? Why stop at masks?
As for football, these are young, healthy men. How many players in sports from professional sports down to youth died with covid? Same with the staff, coaches, etc . Basically zero. You may find some, but in the large picture it is zero. In football these players are more likely to be harmed with concussion.
Sticking with football, the NFL and NCAA preach player safety. Meanwhile, the NFL tells a team to play on Sunday and then play on short rest Thursday. Or teams in TX like Rice University practice in the evening as it is cooler but then the NCAA has them play at 11 AM in 100+ degree heat index. That just adds to how inconsistent this whole thing was.
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@ericdunayer6687 "Decisions were made based on the best available evidence at the time. In hindsight, they may now be viewed as wrong but, at the time, it seemed prudent. "
The point is that there were no discussions being made. Sure, the initial lockdowns had valid reasons, but come May of 2020 it was clear that this virus was not that deadly to justify keeping them. We had the petri dish in the cruise ship. We had the numbers. We also know in education LRE is the best route where remote learning is not. Non of this was being discussed. It was just "follow the science" and people were censored.
" Trying to halt the spread of the disease, especially to those who were most vulnerable, seemed especially prudent."
And that is something we should have been doing to begin with. Protect the vulnerable that want to be protected. That is why we have assisted living facilities. However, there was also the argument that many in nursing homes rather die with covid as opposed to being alone. That situation has also been studied a lot in healthcare. Read the book "Being Mortal" on that topic. We can shield the vulnerable from disease, but at what cost?
"It should also be noted that death is an easy statistic to use -- it is binary, i.e. you are dead or alive."
It is more complicated than that. Someone in their 90s with many health issues dying with covid is not necessarily a covid death. Really, the covid deaths should be weighted. There is a table called the Actuarial Life Table where it gives the chances of dying in a year. If you are 90 years old that chance is 18%. We can start as something simple by taking someone who is 90 dying with covid in 2020 and weighing their death from 1 covid death to a 0.82 covid death, as there was an 18% chance of them dying in that time to begin with.
We can expand as I pointed out with 65% of new nursing home patients dying in a year. What other health issues did they have and so on. So it isn't as simple as you are dead or alive.
"But what about all those who have long Covid -- not dead but suffering."
What was their health like to begin with? Were they healthy before and now suffering? Or were they obese? Again, you need other factors. That was the problem in all of this, there was no discussion.
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@sithwolf8017 again, if I would have died from alcoholism during covid you would have said "well, at least he did not give others the sniffles". You did not care about the damage done by the covid restrictions. Kids' education being ruined. Many businesses being shut down forever. The psychological damage. The increases in alcohol and drug abuse. To you it was just covid.
I had the solution, if you are scared you stay home. We have the ability for people to do remote learning, work at home, get food delivered to them, etc. Let those people live in fear. Others, like me, will interact with society knowing the risk. There are risk far beyond covid. I can get in a car accident, get bitten by a rabid animal, get mugged by someone, catch some other disease besides covid, etc. That has been my entire life and yours. But you freaked out over covid and then decided to destroy other people's lives.
You don't care about others. You are selfish. I am for giving people's a choice.
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@jamie_lou with kids dying the number was basically zero in the large scale. Kids die all the time, but the number is low. That is why we have never shut down in the past for them. If you look at those that died with covid and compare those in the ages of 0-17 to those over 85, there were 187 times more deaths in the ages of 85+ compared to those 0-17. That is huge. Listen, I feel bad for the kids that die, but that has always been the case.
As to your points
1. It was a face diaper. If you want to wear one then fine, go for it. I know people who were one pre covid and had no problem. Just don't force me to wear one. That is where the problem lies. Also, many people were wearing cloths that did nothing as the whole thing was stupid. But again, if you want to wear one go ahead. I am not going to stop you.
2. Yes, you are scared. You can claim you are not scared but you are. But it goes beyond that. It is when you start forcing others to do it. That is the problem
3. No, people did not care about my alcoholism. I fought a lot to get back to normal so I can have my cure. I was told to just "shut up and wear a mask" or "stay at home". People did not want to listen to my concerns. But when it came to covid, a disease that almost all had a well over 99% chance of surviving from, man we needed to stop the world.
You say I have no empathy, here is the issue. The moment you step outside of your front door you are taking a risk in life. As I said, I have no problem with people wearing a face diaper, it is when you force others to do it. I have no problem following some irrational health guidelines, it is when you force others to do it.
The problem I have is you forcing others to cater to you. I never do that. I know people who had compromised immune systems that hated the covid restrictions, that wanted to live life. I, along with others, rather have died from covid enjoying life as opposed to living in fear.
So again, it boils down to this. If you are scared then you hide. You wear a face diaper, you do all of that. What you do not do is force others to do it. What you do not do is lock people who who are not infected because of "contact tracing". What you do not do is shut down businesses and schools.
Do you understand? I doubt it.
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@jamie_lou and you can say I have no empathy. Here is the reality, on kids. I have known kids who have died playing football. Should we ban that? Or should we accept the idea that kid wanted to play and was having fun doing so and there was a freak accident that killed them. Same with the virus. We can shelter a kid from it, but then what is their life worth? Or we can allow them to go to school, to the park and play. Tragedies happen.
I can die today leaving my apartment, but I rather leave my apartment and enjoy life as opposed to living in fear. You say I have no empathy, you are the one that has no empathy. There were nursing home patients striking saying they rather die of covid as opposed to being alone when they were not allowed to see loved ones.
Again, if you are scared you hide. And with my alcoholism, when I am at events I don't demand people don't drink. I am not pushing to ban alcohol. If someone wants to have a beer while being next to me then I am fine with that. I have learned to control it. I don't stand there and yell "don't drink, alcohol is bad". If they want to enjoy life and have a drink that is fine. I still go to bars, I just don't drink. I am not pushing to ban alcohol.
You people are wanting to force other people to cater to you, that is the issue. Again, if you want to wear a face diaper then go ahead. I am not stopping you. Just don't force me to wear one.
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@sithwolf8017 uh.....do you know how laws are created? They are not created off of governor's orders. You have a bill that is written. The legislation debates it and votes on it. It goes to the governor can pass it or veto it. And if passed, it goes to the courts to determine if it is constitutional or not.
You live in a world of black and white, I don't. You do not even know how laws are created in this nation.
"Kids die while playing sports? We invest in better equipment, train sport officials in first aid, have first aid equipment within immediate reach the second something happens, and even have a medical professional on site at the sporting event just in case with emergency services on speed dial in order to MITIGATE the risk of death or injury."
And kids still die. Gee, what a concept. According to you we should just ban all sports. That is your stance based on your stance on covid. My stance on covid was that if you wanted to live in fear and stay home you can. Same with sports, if you were scared then don't play sports. Simple.
But again, you do not know how laws are created in this nation.
"See the problem is you have no clue what mitigation means hence your "whatever happens happens" attitude towards life."
Uh, no, I 100% understand it. Again, with covid, I knew the risk of it existing. I choose to go out and live life. I fully supported the option of people staying home and living in fear. We have grocery delivery. We had remote learning. As I said with one of my grad student colleagues, the university gave her the option like everyone else to work at home to fulfill her TA contract and get paid. Instead she worked on campus and demanded people wear masks around her, even when the mask mandate was dropped. That is her being selfish. She had the option to stay home, do remote learning and work at home and not demand others cater to her.
Your problem is that you want people to cater to you. Fun fact, the moment you step outside of your home you are interacting with society and are taking risk. Do you want everyone to pull over on the road so you can drive it on your own and not get in an accident? I bet you do. That is your stance. My stance is if you are scared, you stay home.
When I drive to work tomorrow I know the risk of getting in an accident. I don't demand others cater to me. Just like with covid, I knew the risk of the virus existing. I did not demand people wear a face diaper, or quarantine even though they were healthy with no symptoms. I did not demand other things from people. And laws we have in place in society were put in place via an act of congress, and passed by the governor, and determined to be constitutional by the courts. A strict process.
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@sithwolf8017 "For example quote me verbatim where I said I wanted to ban all sports"
That is what you are leading to. I understand mitigation. I also understand that at some point it causes more damage.
In my MBA studies we discussed traffic deaths. Around 40,000 die a year in traffic accidents. You know what will make that number to be zero? Capping all vehicle speeds to 15 mph. Yes, we have traffic laws to alleviate traffic deaths, but they still happen. So capping all vehicle speeds to 15 mph will make that zero. But then what will happen to our society, our economy? My commute time to work will be over 2 hours. Say goodbye to overnight delivery.
There comes a point where the mitigation causes more damage, and that was my point on covid. Come May of 2020 it was 100% clear this virus was not that dangerous and we needed to get back to normal. That people's lives were being ruined from the covdi restrictions. Kids' education was ruined. The economy was ruined. Businesses were closed forever, etc. You had the psychological damage and the spike in alcohol and drug abuse. The mitigation was causing more damage. That is my point.
I was all for protecting the vulnerable that wanted to be protected. I am all for allowing people who were scared to stay home. But most wanted to get back to normal because to them that was a better way of life.
Same with the nursing home patients. Yes, we could have completely shielded them from the outside so they don't get covid, but is that a life worth living? Most wanted to see loved ones knowing it met they could catch covid.
So no, you did not want to help people. You wanted to demand others live a life you felt was best and refused to listen to them. And yes, your approach was that of zero deaths. Similar to banning sports for kids or capping vehicle speed limits to 15 mph. You did not care about the negative consequences as long as it did not lead to deaths in certain cases.
So to you, you did not care that quarantining people led to psychological issues, or led to businesses being shut down for good, or kids falling behind in education as long as it led to zero covid deaths. You ignore all other negative consequences and focused only on covid deaths that you wanted to be zero.
As I said, I could have died from alcoholism and you would not have cared as long as it was not a covid death.
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@sithwolf8017 "People die no matter what so we should stop mitigating the damage and let every preventable death happen without taking any action to prevent it. "
Nope, never said that. There is this thing called opportunity cost. I know definitions are difficult for you but it is the loss or potential gain from one alternative when another is chosen.
Going back to traffic accidents and deaths. Yes, we can make traffic deaths to be zero by capping all vehicles to be 15 mph, but the cost would be an economy that is not good. And productivity that is not good. So us, as society, while having traffic laws to alleviate traffic deaths, accept some level of deaths to keep productivity up.
Same with covid. Yes, we could all lock down at home and stop the spread. But as we have seen it led to a bad economy, a spike in alcohol and drug abuse, kids falling behind in education, bad psychological health, etc. Thus, it is better to go back to normal realizing the survival rate is well over 99% and the covid restrictions caused more damage.
So yes, people will die with covid, but the alternative was way worse.
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