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John Dingle
Bloomberg Television
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Comments by "John Dingle" (@johndingle6293) on "Are We Experiencing 70s-Style Inflation?" video.
What could they have done differently during the 70's? Hold rates high for longer? How much longer? How do you know when it's enough? How would you measure what's enough to prevent inflation? We have excellent media and talking heads to shape narratives and the difference between 70's and now are numerous. But is it enough? Will oil and gas prices stay low? Will commodities stay pinned as growth accelerates? Will growth accelerate? And if so, what happens with inflation?
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I don't think powell has a choice. We will have higher inflation like the 70's. Not only did fed print money, but gov spent it. It was put in circulation. The massive covid SPENDING and rise in wages hasn't fully been absorbed by economy.
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During the 70's ffr was lowered as inflation was falling. And Fed avoided over tightening. Inflation fell as low as 2.9%. While Fed maintained ffr above rate of inflation. Do we need to keep rates as high as 5.5% until inflation falls to 2%? Will Fed keep rates that high if inflation falls? No, Fed pivoted in October as soon as the decline in inflation appeared. Fed has no choice but to "smooth" out the rate of eventual inflation. Until inflation has run it's course.
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The covid spending, infrastructure bill, etc etc was scheduled to be spent over next 6-8 years or whatever the timeline is. It's not like BOJ bond purchases and yield control. They money U.S. gov printed, is being circulated.
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