Comments by "Samson Soturian" (@samsonsoturian6013) on "Overvalued IPOs Return in 2023" video.

  1. Correction: Wallstreet wasn't necessarily fooled, but those companies were priced according to the return on T-bills plus a suitable risk premium. When T-bills were returning near zero, these growth companies were valued at or near their projected fair value decades in the future. That's why everything growth got slaughtered in 2022.
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  2. A major flaw in the business models of these new restaurants is they assume Americans will like the new exotic foods they're selling. In the real world, Americans are naturally more inclined to Mexican food than Greek food.
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  3. But that's the thing: They're relatively cheap to set up and generate continuous cash, which is why most brands simply sell the license to their brands to whomever wants to open a store. Cheap restaurants are pretty safe as long as you're selling what people want because in hard times the middle class stops eating at restaurants while richer people simply eat at cheaper restaraunts.
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  4. In China, yeah. Everywhere else, you simply have to not be breaking any laws that we know of (especially accounting rules).
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  5. You have to sell to the big banks in order to get listed.
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  6. @Patrick Roers  yes, the base store heavily favors decentralization, but marketing, recipe experiments, and supply distribution all heavily favor centralization. Hence the franchize model
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  7.  @patrickroers752  Ooph, I'm just running a fireworks stand this year and honestly the hardest part is getting hired help.
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  8.  @TimeToGetIntense  Except there are arbitrage relationships between T-bills and EVERYTHING ELSE. Banks lend to each other at the rate of T-bills plus a little extra. Banks lend to people/companies at a rate of the return of T-bills plus extra to cover default risk. Equity funding, however, has an expected return of debt plus some extra to cover the risk of the venture (more risky your business the less they value your company). If any of these are out of whack from each other, people will simply borrow at one rate and lend at another and make a risk free profit.
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  9.  @ritesaidme  treasury bill. AKA government bond.
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  10.  @TimeToGetIntense  I'm not overthinking interest rates, I'm simplifying the whole market. That is, assuming all else is equal, the return of a stock is the return of a T-bill plus a suitable risk premium. Does that not sound fair from a simple economics perspective?
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  11.  @egal1780  IDK, the volatility and often absurd valuations come down to expected future value. The companies in the video were pitched as "the next Chipotle" and by all accounts that COULD be true but it is difficult to assess the chances of that being true. The insane part is that all these different growth companies can't all become the next big thing, so the average return is actually pretty low... In fact, the average return should add up to the return of T-bills plus a risk premium.
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  12.  @TimeToGetIntense  Not if you know anything
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  13.  @TimeToGetIntense  if you really believe that what the fuck are you doing here? Scamming people
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  14.  @hoppingrabbit9849  liars burn in hell with their tongues nailed to yheir balls
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  15. You know the Fed is hinting they may lower interest rates?
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  16.  @rook1196  We LIKE fake Mexican around here.
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  17. The Fed is saying where they have it right now is about right to bring inflation down. No idea when it will return to "normal."
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