Comments by "dlukton" (@dlukton) on "David Lin " channel.

  1. Good for the goose; good for the gander.
    7
  2. QE will fix everything.
    6
  3. Yeah, maybe ... but how long will the Fed allow deflation to continue before revving up the money printer?
    6
  4. Yes.... unlike in the 1930's, where "bread lines" were obvious.
    5
  5. The Fed controls the Fed funds rate; and if they wanted to buy government debt on a large scale, they could put downward pressure on long-term interest rates.
    4
  6. Over the course of the next 5-10 years, we're going to have INFLATION, not deflation. However, disinflation will continue for several more months.
    3
  7. QE baby; that'll provide the illusion of growth.
    3
  8.  @evanhamaker  No disagreement there.
    2
  9. I wouldn't say that he "knows" the future; but his predictions may indeed be better than those of a lot of other people.
    2
  10. Lotta good points made.
    2
  11. The issue concerns the debt service cost as a percentage of federal tax receipts... and what happens as that ratio goes higher and higher; in particular, what happens to inflation as the (above) ratio increases, and what happens to economic growth?
    1
  12. More QE ... before the end of the current calendar year... is more likely than not.
    1
  13. Yeah, maybe Jay Powell would have provided Kamala with a bit more liquidity than he'll give Trump, but Jay Powell's term ends in May of 2026. Furthermore, the US Treasury has quite a lot of debt to refinance this year, and I think the Fed will help with that.
    1
  14. 50% in cash. That's a bold call. I'm not inclined to hold that much cash at the present time; I sure as hell won't use leverage, but 50% cash is too much.
    1
  15. I don't see a "crash"... if "crash" is defined as a very rapid and violent decline; for example a decline of 20% (in the S&P) in a single day would be a crash; and a decline of 50% in a month would also be a crash. But suppose that the S&P were to decline by 10% over 10 years.... at the same time that the purchasing power of the dollar declined by 70%. That would be quite a large decline in the S&P ... in inflation-adjusted terms, but it would NOT be a crash. A decline like this (large, but slow-moving) is a very likely scenario.
    1
  16. OR... the US may send the military into a country that has antimony. Of course, the US government will claim that it's all about "freedom & democracy".
    1
  17. ​​ @Postnghost86 horseshit. The US engineered a coup in Ukraine in 2014, and the US has been micromanaging Ukrainian affairs ever since. The war in Ukraine is a fight over energy resources more than anything else.
    1
  18. Find me someone over the age of 60 who wants to see deep cuts to social security.
    1
  19. @brandon183  yeah, I think the return on the S&P 500... over the next 10 years... will be negative, in inflation-adjusted terms. But gold & silver may do well over that time period. (And, I'm a fan of bitcoin).
    1
  20. If the Fed balance sheet goes to $30 trillion, bitcoin will go to a million.... easy; if not two million.
    1
  21. Yes... BUT.... as the Fed lowers the Fed funds rate, interest expense will come down.
    1
  22. @dmo7815  as Luke points out, the big money is in entitlements & defense; nothing else matters all that much.
    1
  23. Let's take a few hundred billion out of social security & Medicare..... and send it to Zelensky PFFFFFFFT.
    1
  24. Another great discussion from Luke.
    1
  25. There's two different issues: (a) price of food now vs 3 years ago, and (b) RATE OF CHANGE in the price level. Prices aren't going to go back down to where they were; but the rate of change in food prices has come down to a reasonable level.
    1
  26. Encouraging comments from Jim Thorne.
    1