Comments by "dlukton" (@dlukton) on "CNBC Television" channel.

  1. Yes, according to Scott Gottlieb, we should all bow down to the almighty Joe Biden.... and do whatever he orders us to do.
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  2. All the Dems need to do is to slip Raffensperger a couple million bucks to reprogram the Dominion voter machines.
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  3. It's only "volatility" when the market is declining. No one calls it "volatility" when the market is rising sharply.
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  4. These are money-sucking machines; avoid them like the plague. Trade futures, if you want leverage.
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  5. Carter Worth is one of the few "talking heads" on CNBC who is just as willing to be bearish as bullish... and he's willing to do it dispassionately (i.e., no "cheerleading" for the bull side).
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  6. Absolutely. And this outcome (i.e., Biden trying to tax everything that moves, and everything that doesn't) was completely predictable prior to the election.
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  7. If the US could get the Chinese to stop stealing US technology, that would be worth paying a high price for. Of course, few on Wall Street care one way or the other about the technology theft.
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  8. This isn't a question of "the rest of the world" paying the 15% corporate tax; it's a question of the G-20 countries agreeing to it. That is a lot of countries... to be sure... but there'll still be many, many countries what won't be agreeing to the 15% rate.
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  9. I think I'll go buy me some Chicago muni bonds. What could possibly go wrong there?
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  10. Seems like a lot of people who loved asset bubbles when Obama was President don't like them so much now that Trump is President (and facing re-election in 2020).
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  11. Normally I don't waste my time on Cramer. But I made an exception in this case. And he's right.
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  12. He wants to bail out the big blue cities: Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, etc.... .... and it's mostly the underfunded pensions that he wants to bail out (using "funny money" from the Fed).
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  13. Gold will outperform the S&P 500 over the next 12 months (IMHO).
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  14. Gold will outperform bitcoin over the next year or two.
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  15. The economy is going to turn down. Management would be stupid to provide increased benefits or job guarantees that are not explicitly tied... in the contract... to automobile sales.
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  16. The issue is far less about "discharge" versus "no discharge"..... and much more about HONORABLE discharge versus dishonorable discharge. The latter would be very unfair.... and shortsighted on the part of the US military, if that's the route it seeks to take.
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  17. Yes; and if the military imposes a dishonorable discharge on members who refuse the vaccine, that will haunt them (the military) in their recruitment efforts in the future.
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  18. Yeah, anything is possible. Certainly the PRESIDENTIAL election in Georgia was rigged for Biden; but maybe the SENATE election will be rigged for the GOP. Anything's possible.
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  19. Will there ever be an end to these bailouts.... and to the monetization of the debt?
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  20. These "big dogs" could buy up the shale assets; once the price of oil comes back up, they could then continue extracting the oil.
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  21. "A dramatic dollar decline won't hurt the market recovery". Maybe that'll be true in NOMINAL terms.... but not in inflation-adjusted terms.
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  22. Certainly the S&P 500 is now due for a sizable rally... perhaps 20% or so; but then, another downturn.
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  23. Yeah, there's a lot of moving parts here; most critics of the tariffs are either liars or idiots; idiots in the sense that they have a very one-dimensional view of the effects of the tariffs.
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  24. It would start at a threshold of $50 million; but it wouldn't take long before the threshold were lowered to one million.
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  25. Recession will happen in less than 24 months. More like 12 months. But yes, the S&P will go higher over the next several months.
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  26. It's all up to J. Powell.
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  27. The illegal aliens, the homeless people, and the welfare rats.... they'll all stay.
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  28. Yeah, pullback in August and September. Then, everyone waits to see the election results.
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  29. There's also the question of whether one WANTS to pay income taxes & property taxes in California.... EVEN IF he can "afford" to do it.
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  30. Yeah, I've got a Trek bike; I ride it 7 days a week.
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  31. Mark Yusko generally worth listening to; but I'm not nearly as bullish on bitcoin as he is.
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  32. Blankfein isn't a very good liberal if he favors economic growth and productivity.
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  33. Maybe he's good; maybe not. But he's better than 90% of the prognosticators that CNBC gives broadcast time to.
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  34. At least four of the SCOTUS Justices suffer from TDS; but maybe... MAYBE... they can figure out that their ruling could "come back to bite" a FUTURE President... if they make it too easy for some committee chairman in the House to go rifling through financial records of the POTUS.
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  35. "China can wait this guy out until 2020". ABSOLUTELY. Which is why Trump shouldn't play "hardball" with China UNLESS he gets a second term.
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  36. That'll probably continue to work for some time to come. BUT, some day, the S&P 500 might do what the Nikkei 225 did back in 1989 (and subsequently). And, we have the example of the DJIA during 1929-1932, and the example of the S&P 500 from 1968 to 1982.
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  37. What if higher tariffs were combined with lower taxes on income; and what if those tariffs resulted in more manufacturing being done in the US...?
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  38. He's "persona non grata" on CNBC.
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  39. I don't know where the bottom in oil is; but after oil does put in a bottom, it'll outperform the S&P 500 by a large margin.
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  40. The market goes higher... to draw in a lot of suckers... before the SHTF in a big way.
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  41. Her proposal is highly impractical, difficult to enforce, and unconstitutional. That being said, moving to Monaco wouldn't be enough; a person would have to renounce his US citizenship on order to avoid the tax.
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  42. Yes; it's about "the politics of envy" more than it is about raising revenue.
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  43.  @hello69468  Point is, if US companies want to operate in China, they have to partner with a local company, and then give up all their technology secrets to the Chinese company; the Chinese company, in turn, hands over the technology to the Chinese government.
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  44. Sometimes they have value as contrary indicators.
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  45.  @DirtyyHouse88  DOWN.
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  46. The S&P 500 could easily rally for the next two months; but if it does, I think it'll go a lot lower after that.
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  47. Federal tax on assets is a horrible, horrible idea; such a tax would RADICALLY change behavior... not only of those who have been directly targeted, but those who believe they will be targeted in future years.
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  48. Not much to disagree with there.
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  49. The politicians.... with their various regulations and taxes.... have a big effect on prices at the gasoline pump.
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  50. Given the lack of agreement on a stimulus package... and more importantly, the likelihood of a contested election, I see the S&P 500 bottoming some time in December, and at a level below 3000. HOWEVER, if it happens that way, it'll be an excellent buying opportunity.
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  51.  @pierrern181  I don't know if there really is a solid consensus for a pullback to occur during August & September; but in any case, I've got some "dry powder" that I plan to deploy in October.
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  52. The tax burden is quite high enough as it is.
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  53. Good to see that at least SOME of the people in California have functioning brain cells (i.e., they're demonstrating that by moving out).
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  54.  @oliviavaughn4428  I can probably run circles around you when it comes to trading futures.
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  55. OK; but bear in mind that the inflation rate pertains to "rate of change" in prices; and NOT the actual price level.
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  56. A lot of people say that; but bear in mind that the Fed is.... to a large extent..... under the control of politicians; and politicians can be very fickle.
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  57.  @59jm24  The issue here is not about what's legal or illegal; the issue that I raised is that of the potential impact of future recruitment, in the event that the military gives a "dishonorable discharge" to each person who refused the vaccine. You probably don't care if there's an impact on recruitment or not; but not everyone shares your view.
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  58.  @rosiebrooks7685  Of course, it'll be a question of what the senate will approve. But the political power of the Dems arises mostly from the "big blue" cities; and so the Dems would like to send as much money as possible to those cities. (And municipal pensions are in deep, deep trouble).
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  59.  @Assface2k  Ripple is the company that issues XRP; and Ripple is also partly responsible for managing XRP.
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  60.  @dontswin  OK, then. Let's have a $5.00 bet... payable in bitcoin.
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  61.  @BlizzyBlake1185  No disagreement from me. But there could be a large rally also. For example, the DJIA rallied for about six months after the crash of 1929 (December '29 to May '30).
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  62. Yes; and I think an important question here is: how could the bill be written so as to maximize the odds of the courts finding it to be Constitutional? Had that question been posed, she wouldn't have been able to wriggle out of it so easily. My guess is that any judge appointed by Obama will say that a tax on unrealized capital gains is Constitutional (no matter how the law is worded); whereas the Supreme Court.... IF IT'S WILLING TO TAKE THE CASE AT ALL.... will say that it is not Constitutional. The nightmare scenario is that the SCOTUS refuses to even hear the case.
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  63.  @pakpala1  they would do just that.
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  64. Governor Cuomo was worried about a big budget deficit BEFORE the coronavirus came along; what's gonna happen NOW...?
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  65. @UnclePlaysBadly  that's not what I'm saying at all.
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  66. @UnclePlaysBadly  people who say that tariffs are NECESSARILY bad.... regardless of how they're applied.... are indeed idiots.
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  67. "recession" versus "no recession (yet)" isn't the issue so much as a "decline in earnings" versus "no decline in earnings".
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  68.  @Voltroc  OK; I didn't know that. If Gottlieb is opposed to a vaccine mandate (by the Feds), he's not such a bad guy after all.
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  69. "Quantitative Easing, deficit spending, IS WELFARE for shareholders." That hasn't really been true YET, especially on an after-tax, after-benefit basis, since those who lack capital haven't really been made worse off (again, on an after-tax, after-benefit basis). If we get a nasty bout of inflation, then perhaps your characterization will become accurate at that point
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  70.  @jaemoon3593  Yes, the Fed has induced a bubble in stocks, and in real estate. But I think that most of the damage of Fed policy lies in the future rather than the present.
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  71. J.P. Morgan in 1912: “Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” Jack Mallers in 2022: "There's bitcoin, and there's everything else".
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  72. The more that the CNBC guys (and gals) tell us to ignore the inverted yield curve, the more that I think that it's going to matter. I say: recession starts in about a year... but the S&P 500 could still rally 4-7% (from here) before the recession starts.
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  73.  @TheMagicJIZZ  I could live without the tax burdens that exist in any of Denmark, France, and Sweden.
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  74. The Fed won't cut unless the stock market declines FIRST. The S&P would probably have to decline AT LEAST as far down as 2600 before the Fed would cut; possibly the Fed would insist on a decline to 2400 before they'd begin to take pity on investors.
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  75. There's something else going on beyond just "fighting inflation"; I think that the Fed is being used as a tool of foreign policy. The strong dollar probably hurts Russia somewhat, and maybe also China.
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  76. China will (if they're smart) wait to see if Trump gets a second term.
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  77. OTOH, the Chinese will have a lot more "leverage" in negotiations BEFORE the 2020 election than they'll have afterwards.
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  78. Wow. Tom Friedman saying something supportive of Trump. Hard to believe.
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  79. "compete like the rest of the world" Although, most of the oil around the world is under the control of governments.
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  80. A number of Democrats have proposed taxing unrealized capital gains. A totally awful idea, but I think it would nevertheless be Constitutionally-compliant (unlike a federal tax on assets per se).
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  81.  @hello69468  Article written by Kyle Bass... published today... that is very relevant: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-11/kyle-bass-warns-trump-dont-take-easy-way-out-china
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  82.  @houfame  Yes, China has the upper hand... from a political perspective.... even if Trump has the upper hand from an economic perspective. Certainly, the Chinese won't give Trump anything substantial prior to the 2020 election; they'll wait first to see if he can win a 2nd term.
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  83.  Jack SIn  Better to fight back than to merely blame; perhaps we can agree on that.
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  84.  @Withnail1969  They're not "happy" to be forced to give up their technology; but they do it in order to get permission to operate in the country. In any case, it's not in the long-run interest of the US, even putting aside the fact that some of that technology can be adapted for military use
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  85.  @Withnail1969  You've disregarded two of my points: (a) what is in the long-run interest of the United States from an economic perspective, and (b) to what extent can the technology that the Chinese steal be adapted for the Chinese military? ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Also, I would turn the question around. If it's really true that the Chinese aren't forcing US companies to partner with them, why would the Chinese not then just agree to refrain from doing that which you believe they're not doing to begin with? And if it's really true that the Chinese aren't forcing US companies to divulge technology secrets to the companies that they partner with, why would the Chinese not then just agree to refrain from doing that which you believe they're not doing to begin with? Seems to me, the whole trade war could be ended in about 5 minutes.... if what you're saying were really true.
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  86.  @Withnail1969  Allowing US companies to give away military secrets is in the long run interest of the US....? I think not. And if you believe there is anything at all "free market" about the way that China treats US companies, I would say that you're misinformed.
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  87. As Garlinghouse said, most of the XRP is traded on exchanges OUTSIDE THE US. So FINE, if some judge wants to declare XRP to be a security, it'll just continue trading on exchanges outside the US. I'm sure the bankers hate XRP; and no doubt Steven Mnuchin hates XRP. But the US government can't shut down XRP.
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  88.  @thoughtsonstocks  Could be that the bankers won't like it because they won't be able to charge fat fees. And looking at it from the perspective of the government, it would seem that XRP will threaten the SWIFT payment system, which the US government uses to badger and coerce foreign governments. So I can't imagine that people in the US government are happy to lose that power.
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