Comments by "Black Cat Dungeon Master\x27s Familiar" (@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311) on "Bad assumptions and the belief in Russian victory" video.

@allanmason3201 Russia heavily subsidised the rest of the USSR during Soviet times. Much of the periphery was economic dead weight, especially the central Asian republics which was part of the union due to ideology rather than economic advantage. Most of the seriously productive parts of Ukraine are populated by Russians and mainly in Russian hands due to this invasion - most of the coal, much of the gas fields and the most fertile farmland.
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Ukraine is winning the meme and propaganda war. Russia is winning the artillery and economic war. Comparisons with Vietnam or Afghanistan are misleading unless Russia is stupid enough to occupy the north west of Ukraine. The territory Russia will take is populated by people who speak Russian and mainly prefer to be part of Russia. There's no reason to think Russian consolidation of Kherson, Mikulayev, Odessa and Kharkov will be less successful than it's consolidation of Crimea and Donetsk.
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@georgethompson1460 1) The Ukrainian army is suffering severe attrition. The Russian army is not. After the Russians pulled back from Kiev, the balance of forces was quite even. Over time, the Russians built up greater forces and the Ukrainians lost their experienced veterans to greater Russian artillery. When the Russians moved on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, it all collapsed quite quickly, two or three weeks. The attrition continues every day and will presumably speed up rapidly now Ukraine is on the offensive. 2) Currently, the Russians are extremely casualty averse. They only take a position when there's no opposition left and an infantry patrol notices vacated Ukrainian defences, we don't see aggressive assaults any more - so their gains are very slow. However the Russians have amassed large air mobile reserves. If it suits them and they want to pay the price in casualties, they can move quickly. Quite likely they'll do this with an airmobile strike because of the thick minefields all over the front now. 3) The Russians currently judge that time is on their side. Diplomatic opposition is gradually crumbling. It could be they want to avoid panicking the West with rapid moves. It could be that they're waiting for ongoing Ukrainian casualties to weaken the opposition. In any case they've got the capacity to fight a lot more aggressively than they currently are.
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@aaronbaker2186 Not really, the parts of Ukraine which Russia has taken is mainly Russian speaking, settled by Russians and mainly pro-Russian. Look at how successfully Russia assimilated Crimea. And whereas Vietnam didn't matter to the Americans, Ukraine really does matter to the Russians.
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@Elbuarto Zelensky himself told the population that the Russians were going to invade just before ... the Russians invaded :) Ukraine certainly isn't about to fold but likewise, I'd say anyone who predicts Russia is going to lose has zero credibility. There's just no evidence whatsoever that Russia is even struggling much less losing.
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@hedgehog3180 Russians captured dozens of military vehicles in Lysychansk. There are plenty of videos online. Likewise of Ukrainian infantry escaping on foot because the only road out was under fire control. According to your logic an advance which isn't rapid is embarrassing. What would you recommend the Russian generals do? A massed tank attack across minefields into towns where a poorly trained territorial can fire a cheap anti-tank missile? That's just stupid. Rommel fought much of WWII in an open desert where there were no forests and few towns and in the days when infantry anti-tank weapons were only dangerous at short range and from flanks.
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@aaronbaker2186 Out of two and a half million population there are a couple of sabotage operations. Which have apparently now been shut down. So it's hardly a popular insurgency.
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Bizarre how this guy thinks the Russians are in a weak position. Across most of the line, they're just sitting back and pouring shells on Ukrainian positions and waiting for the West to collapse economically and lose interest. The Russian army are taking very few casualties. Most of their front line fighting is done by DPR/LPR and Wagner mercenaries, the regular Russian army just gets rotated in and out, building up combat experience. The Russian population is solidly behind the war. The Russian economy hasn't collapsed like most Western leaders and media predicted it would, it's actually holding up better than European economies. The Ukrainian economy in contrast is on life support and won't survive the winter even if the Russians don't try to advance. The Ukrainians have just launched their first serious attack in weeks. All we know so far is they took heavy losses and captured a few villages. Impressive given their paucity of armour, artillery and air support but let's get real. The Russians have a huge air mobile reserve accumulated over the past couple of weeks. If the Russians really do feel themselves under pressure, it's available to plug any gaps. I'll personally be immensely surprised if the Ukrainians reach the outskirts of Kherson much less capture Kherson. More likely the Russians will wait for the Ukrainians to overcommit and burn their reserves before launching a major counter attack. This is the German spring offensive in 1918. The Ukrainians will capture some strategically unimportant territory but at high casualties to themselves of the best of their army. The effort will leave them vulnerable to a Russian counter strike which is likely to be sooner rather than later.
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