Comments by "Black Cat Dungeon Master\x27s Familiar" (@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311) on "THETI Mapping" channel.

Whether Russia keeps Lyman or Ukrainian cuts it off and forces the capitulation of the Russian garrison is still hugely important. If Russian holds out until reserves arrive, the writing is on the wall for Ukraine. If Ukraine captures Lyman and the garrison, that's a huge disaster for the Russians, Ukraine is still in the game.
2
@rockrabbit253 If you think things are bad for the Russian economy, consider the Ukrainian economy. Frequent electricity blackouts, winter approaching and they're seriously talking about evacuating civilians from Kiev. Already over ten million people have left, presumably most will never return since after living in Western Europe for a few months they'll start to get jobs and put down roots. Russia seems determined to continue the war, how long can Ukraine sustain the current level of effort?
2
@damonburroughs5283 Russia has taken lower casualties overall from a population more than four times bigger. And most of the Russian casualties have been DPR/LPR/Wagner rather than Russian military. Russian morale right now seems pretty good, obviously there are always going to be a lot of complaints but we're not seeing deliberate surrenders (ie. radioing the enemy to organise surrenders) like we've seen from the Ukrainian side on many occasions over the past two weeks. Over months now I've seen dozens of videos of Ukrainians rounding up random guys picked up off the street for the army. Whereas Russia had one round of mobilising reservists - not conscripts - reservists. I don't suggest it's all easy for Russia but Ukraine has taken higher casualties with a much smaller population. Much of the Ukrainian population doesn't support the war anyway (tens of thousands of them are fighting for the Russian side). Given the recent Russian gains at what's supposed to be the height of the Ukrainian offensive, I don't think it looks good for Ukraine.
2
Except Russian style attacking is flatten defences with artillery and send in patrols to see if anyone is still alive, if not, occupy the new position. It's very slow in the well fortified areas but Ukraine takes higher casualties in this kind of warfare.
2
Why not evacuate Kherson? Too many people to resettle.
2
@werner9643 DPA is pretty good but there's a bit too much fluff. Military Summary has a lot more analysis but some of it's a bit far eccentric.
2
@DonetskResident Military Summary? Yeah maybe. He tends to panic and overreact to the latest developments and contradict himself month to month.
2
@truthseeker6116 What is History Legends wrong about? Seems to me he backs up what he says with plenty of evidence and anyway, he only does videos when it's pretty well known what happened. That Theti (and Weeb and DPA) are doing is much harder: daily videos of status updates where the reliability of the information is harder to determine.
1
@truthseeker6116 I've seen all his videos going back months, I think you're misrepresenting what he said about Bakhmut. It is true that Ukraine poured huge resources into holding Bakhmut longer than many people including Zaluzhny thought was wise and they did hold Bakhmut longer than many including History Legends were expecting them to. As for Leopard losses, I presume you're going by Oryx's reported losses which are implausibly low. I think maybe three destroyed last time I checked. Whereas other sources have identified 29 damaged or destroyed as of a couple of days ago. I don't know why Oryx has not identified more, perhaps he's just far behind it's often claimed he applies different standards of proof for Ukrainian and Russian losses. History Legends isn't slow to acknowledge Ukrainian achievements and if you go back to the Kharkhov offensive, he's hugely critical of the Russian command.
1
@truthseeker6116 Which particular point? I'm not clear what you think History Legends was actually wrong about. Unless you think Oryx is the definitive truth about vehicle losses - which can't be taken seriously. Or something about Bakhmut? In which case what did he say when which was false? If you can point me to something I'll rewatch the video concerned and if you're right I'll concede your point. But if you can't point out something specific then I have to wonder whether your own pro-Ukraine bias just makes you hostile to neutral sources.
1
@rockrabbit253 You're very optimistic. The vast majority of the aid to Ukraine is loans that it will never be able to pay back. The Europeans are struggling themselves - like really struggling. There's no way they're going to want to pay to rebuild a country which isn't part of the EU.
1
Disagree, Ween Union, Military Summary, Theti Mapping, Defense Politics Asia all do a great job of remaining neutral.
1
Except Russian style attacking is flatten defences with artillery and send in patrols to see if anyone is still alive, if not, occupy the new position. It's very slow in the well fortified areas but Ukraine takes higher casualties in this kind of warfare.
1
@hallgeirtveit5553 I suspect you don't watch Telegram footage from both sides?
1
I don't think we've seen anything like everything they have yet. They're trying to suck in Russian reserves and to take the approaches. This is going to run for a long time yet, maybe for weeks - unless the shaping goes so badly the Ukrainians cancel the whole thing. When it's all over there'll be tens of thousands more of brave men lost on both sides that would still be alive if Ukraine had just honoured the Minsk accords and agreed to keep out of NATO.
1
Multi-storey building - you can fit a lot of men into a small space when they're in sleeping bags and foam mats.
1
@damonburroughs5283 Ukraine is running low on manpower and morale is starting to fail. Check recent Zerohedge article. Ukraine can probably keep fighting for a long time yet but if they can't break through Russian lines now, it's hard to see how that's going to improve as attrition grinds them down further
1
@damonburroughs5283 Yes I think you're right, it'll go on for months longer but ever since the Russians mobilised, or maybe a couple of months later, they seem to have recovered their balance and are slowly winning through attrition.
1
The Ukrainians usually leak a lot of videos though.
1
Alexander Mercouris is a pedantic wind bag who knows nothing about military affairs and has an extreme pro-Russian bias. Brian Berletic has much better understanding and presentation but also extreme pro-Russian bias. Theti Mapping, Military Summary at least attempt to be neutral, as does History Legends Alex who has pretty sensible takes.
1
Good wikipedia copy and paste skills
1
I'm not suggesting it's going to work but the Russian defences north and south of Bakhmut aren't that strong. It's newly captured territory and a lot of it isn't easy to entrench. The Ukrainians want to drive around Bakhmut, not fight through it. If the Ukrainians succeed anywhere, my bet would be they can retake that large salient north west of Bakhmut. I doubt they can get much further though.
1