Comments by "Black Cat Dungeon Master\x27s Familiar" (@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311) on "Kharkiv Offensive Is Coming | Scenario Analysis" video.

  1. Disagree, the big offensives will start as soon as Ukraine reaches the point that it doesn't have enough reserves to plug gaps when a position collapses. And that point seems to be approaching. Big offensives when the enemy is too strong is expensive and risky but positional warfare has an opportunity cost too when the enemy is weak enough that big offensives have a realistic prospect of success. The Kharkov offensive had a good pay off for Ukraine when the Russians were too weak in this sector, cutting off Russian forces and capturing territory. Ukrainian casualties were modest relative to the results achieved so far as we can tell. The balance of power is starting to favour Russia doing something like this.
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  2. The political point you make about not panicking the West is valid but the military pay off of a big offensive is too big to ignore. Russia doesn't want the war to drag on forever either. I think the big offensives will start as soon as Ukraine reaches the point that it doesn't have enough reserves to plug gaps when a position collapses. And that point seems to be approaching. Big offensives when the enemy is too strong is expensive and risky but positional warfare has an opportunity cost too when the enemy is weak enough that big offensives have a realistic prospect of success. The Kharkov offensive had a good pay off for Ukraine when the Russians were too weak in this sector, cutting off Russian forces and capturing territory. Ukrainian casualties were modest relative to the results achieved so far as we can tell. The balance of power is starting to favour Russia doing something like this.
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  3. There will definitely be good underground fortifications under and around Kharkov by now.
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  4.  @chrismartin2034  I'd guess they can keep it up for a long time agree with you there but there is a deficit from all this military spending and there are more productive things to spend this huge armaments effort on. It's a pretty major war, a lot of Russians are dying (even if it's pretty obvious Ukrainian casualties are higher), prolonging the war doesn't seem to be in Russia's interest
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