Comments by "Black Cat Dungeon Master\x27s Familiar" (@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311) on "Covert Cabal" channel.

If you're measuring territorial gains in a war of attrition, you're measuring the wrong thing.
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Evidence?
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@alvaro701 That's definitely false. These were used as sniper rifles. They fire 7.62 rounds. An AK is going to be lucky to hit anything at 500m, the cartridge is too light and the barrel is shorter. It's built for combat at less than 400m. The age doesn't matter. Even earlier than the First World War marksmen often firing at over 1200m, see the South African war.
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In the long run, taking eastern Ukraine puts Russia in a very strong position as a supplier of gas and wheat. Europe has been moving to greener energy sources for decades and it still needs Russian gas. In the long run it can develop LPG infrastructure (too late for this winter) but it'll never be as cheap as piped gas straight from the Urals. Either Europe backtracks and trades with Russia or it deindustrialises and Germany accepts a significantly lower standard of living. My money is on mutually beneficial trade with Russia.
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@veerchand2129 You're missing some things here. Firstly the people driving these T62s/T64s are regular Russian forces. They're DPR/LPR. According to Ukrainian logic, these are actually Ukrainians. Secondly, most of the Ukrainian forces are also poorly equipped. I've seen plenty of videos of conscripted Ukrainians saying they were meant to have two weeks training but never actually fired a rifle and then sent to the front. Guys with WWII machine guns. Thirdly - we've been hearing about the Kherson offensive since the start of May. The Kiev government recently admitted themselves it was just propaganda. If you think Ukrainian counter offensives will capture anything significant you're buying propaganda.
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@alvaro701 Yeah it does seem like Russia is using these guys like cannon fodder, maybe not so much now but earlier in the war. But it could also be that for the kind of fighting we're seeing in Ukraine - basically an artillery war - then heavier round bolt action rifles especially with a decent scope are more appropriate than AKs for a lot of the work these guys are meant to be doing. Holding a tree line with the enemy 500m or even 800m away across these huge open fields. An AK is appropriate in a forest or city but probably not much use in a lot of that more open country.
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One problem with this analysis, it assumes that all the "destroyed" tanks are so severely damaged they can't be repaired. That will be true for some of them but except for losses in the first month where Russia retreated from the north, the vast majority of the vehicles lost since can be recovered since Russia has generally been taking territory since April. Many will be repaired, of those that can't be repaired, many will be useful for parts.
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@homerboy91 Using more dirt bikes is probably more just that the war has opened up a lot. A year ago, dirt bikes against entrenched Ukrainian positions would have been suicide. But the main Ukrainian lines have been breeched now in many places. Dirt bikes allow stealth and speed which tanks do not. Russian losses seem to have dropped off compared to a year ago while territorial gains are increasing. Over and over the Russians are getting Ukrainians into pockets they can only withdraw from under fire.
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Perhaps but you could apply this advice equally to the USA. What Russia is doing in Ukraine now is no different to what the USA has done in Serbia and the Middle East.
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@jamesgrant3343 The way the Russians see it, the land they want and have taken is rightfully Russian land inhabited by Russian speaking ethnically Russian people. It's not just some random territorial conquest. Doesn't hurt that it's also very rich in minerals.
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@PeterSedesse Ukraine's economy will collapse long before Russia's does. It's already held up only by Western aid and has contracted by almost half. The US government is paying the wages of the entire Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian population will not have gas and electricity for heating over the winter and a modern country can't survive a winter far below freezing without energy.
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@PeterSedesse You're assuming that America throwing money at the problem is all that is necessary. The Afghanistan debacle should have shown the dangers of that. A huge but unknown proportion of all the aid to Ukraine is stolen. We've seen Western military aid to Ukraine showing up in the Middle East at very cheap prices, you can buy Javelins in Syria now for $15,000 straight from Ukraine. According to some sources at least, Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe and one of the most corrupt in the world. Two French Caesars were bought by the Russians direct from Ukrainian soldiers and I've seen videos of other equipment being bought. Russia will disconnect Europe's biggest nuclear plant from the Ukrainian grid soon. An injection of money won't be able to prevent electricity blackouts and gas supplies for heating. Ukraine gets cold in winter, usually well below freezing. People in the villages can burn wood but not in the cities. Additionally, there'll be a shortage of vehicle fuel and probably food.
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Sure. Because what China needs most is a nuclear war with Russia. In the real world, China and Russia are improving their relations and are doing military exercises together right now.
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@klown463 Russia is still advancing across most of their front. It's slow because they don't want to take high casualties by assaulting Ukrainian positions. They shell the Ukrainians until any survivors retreat then the Russians send out infantry patrols to take the vacated ground. if the patrol takes fire the Russians retreat and shell some more. It's slow but it's relentless and the casualties are very one sided. Also the entire front line now is covered by minefields.
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Earlier on there was a prediction earlier on in the war that Kalibr missile production would have to shut down due to sanctions. Reality? 500 new job vacancies there.
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@yespeace2000 If the ammunition inside the tank explodes then yes I agree. But many of the tanks reported destroyed are actually just immobilised or have temporary damage.
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@Comanderstick Even five years down the track, imported LPG will never be as cheap for Europe as Russian piped gas. Either Europe buys Russian gas or Europe says goodbye permanently to chemicals, metallurgy, fertilisers and so much else, even cement. You can't make stuff like that with LPG at competitive prices. For Germany especially, that's going to result in severe job losses and a permanently lower standard of living. Will Europeans accept this? Why would they?
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 @bluecanary9417 THe US will probably be fine, you're naive to think Europe will be. Have a look at the price of gas futures and what's happening to energy bills already.
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@bluecanary9417 That's totally unrealistic. Look at the numbers. Germany has to cut energy consumption by 20% according to their own estimates. How does a modern economy do that without people going cold and without massive job losses and permanent economic damage. This isn't "some hardship". This is the kind of thing which brings governments down.
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@PeterSedesse That makes zero sense whatsoever. Guided missiles adjust their flight according to their position and trajectory, if the fuel is degraded it might have a minor effect on their range and speed but not on their accuracy.
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@simonmoorcroft1417 If you measure "the current rate of progress" as ground taken in the past few days then you're measuring the wrong thing. Look at how fast Lysychansk fell after Zolote. We're gong to see more cauldrons like that in the next couple of weeks. You can't follow the war only by looking at a map. The Russians are using their artillery to inflict heavy casualties on the Ukrainians. The Russians aren't trying hard to take ground any more, it's very rare that they make any kind of assault, they don't want infantry casualties. When they take ground it's because they've shelled the Ukrainian defenders so hard the survivors have retreated usually without orders. The Ukrainians have resorted to using extreme nationalists like Kraken as blocking units to shoot retreating defenders. You'll never hear about that in the Western media! And the Russians have to deal with minefields too. It's slow - but it's sustainable. Ukraine can't survive the coming winter economically even if its military doesn't collapse. Russia will have the Donbas in the next few months for sure. The question is how much further they will go. If there's no Ukrainian surrender then the Russians can just keep driving forward. It'll hurt their living standards short term but to put it in perspective, they haven't even sent conscripts to Ukraine.
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@antonwearsakilt5209 Well the French could buy two Caesars back from the Russians if that would help them rearm?
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@sjs9698 Only the most propagandised gullible people believe the side with the armour, air, artillery and drone advantage is taking a "far higher casualty rate" or even higher at all. If you watch neutral mappers it's obvious the Ukrainians are struggling to firefight. Explain where all their hundreds of thousands of conscripts have disappeared to if you think their casualties are lower than Russia's.
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