Youtube comments of Black Cat Dungeon Master\x27s Familiar (@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311).

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  306. That first negative review is indeed badly flawed but sorry, TIK, the rebuttal of both negative reviews contains important flaws itself. Firstly, the comment that the user's name looks German. No, it really doesn't. But apart from that, the observation contains the implication that the author's nationality or ethnicity has some bearing on his or her credibility. TIK should honestly ask himself why he even mentioned this. TIK talks about "history theory" as if these are authoritative laws like the laws of thermodynamics. But they're not, they're just ideas, and like all ideas in history, they are neither universally applicable nor beyond criticism themselves. The idea which TIK surely doesn't actually believe but implies in his analysis of the first review is that all sources are biased and so all perspectives are equally (in)valid. This is undergraduate postmodernism of the more extreme end of the spectrum. Even worse, that historical truth can be best arrived at by a sort of democratic poll of reading many authors. TIK is ignoring a contradiction here. If history is some kind of popularity contest and everybody is biased anyway, then this reviewer's perspective is just as valid as his own - exactly the argument of the more extreme postmodernists. But obviously, TIK doesn't actually believe that. He has explained elsewhere why he finds this postmodernist line of thinking poisonous so why bring in this postmodernist argument he doesn't really believe in so flippantly here? The reviewer accuses the author of cherry picking and TIK's criticism of that is because no historian can know everything or fit everything into a book, it's justifiable to present just those facts or arguments which suit the author. Obviously it is true that an author can't know everything and is under no obligation to try to include everything. But doesn't excuse cherry picking which is to deliberately overemphasise unimportant points which support your argument and ignore unimportant points which are unhelpful to your argument. TIK would rightfully condemn an author who minimised the brutality of the German or Soviet regimes by presenting facts which supported such an argument while ignoring more important facts which undermine it. An historian has no obligation to present ALL the relevant information (which as TIK says, is infinite) but does have the obligation to portray a subject honestly. If building an argument, there is the obligation to present the most important considerations with bearing on that argument, not just those which support it. It's not good enough to claim there wasn't room in your book! TIK claims that "all sources are anecdotal". No they're not! Official statistics are not anecdotal. Unit orders are not anecdotal. And nor are many other types of evidence historians deal with. The second reviewer criticises that the book authors don't attempt to quantify the popularity of the "pro-Wehrmacht viewpoint". Isn't this a valid criticism? If you're going to write an entire book warning against the popularity of a viewpoint you consider dangerous, shouldn't you at least attempt to quantify that popularity? TIK dismisses this merely because it's not practical to poll the entire country. Of course it's not. But isn't it reasonable to at least attempt to quantify the importance of the things like the authors or chatrooms or whatever that you're discussing? For example by looking at sales figures of books as the reviewer suggests. Because what if they turn out to be really obscure influences with no relevance to larger society? That would undermine your entire argument! Instead TIK just claims a "huge portion" of the American public has this perception and apparently, we must take his word for it. TIK criticises the second reviewer for noting that the book doesn't discuss films, again with the straw man argument that no book can include everything. But aren't films at least as important in influencing public perceptions of history as academic books, chatrooms and computer wargames? And if so, don't they deserve some attention? At bare minimum, the reviewer is making a valid observation. And the reviewer never claimed that Enemy of the Gates is historically accurate. TIK is putting words in his mouth here. TIK does a great job of visually presenting battles in depth and demolishing the Manstein/Halder view of history but in this video, if you're criticising other people who can't reply themselves, you should be doubly careful to present their arguments carefully and fairly. I don't think TIK quite measured up to this in this video. "The Wehrmacht was Guilty as Charged". Yes. Fair enough. If we're talking about the institution as a whole rather than every single member of it. But this is another straw man argument. Neither of these two negative reviewers attempted to claim otherwise.
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  892.  @dasbubba841  1) casualties - the BBC made a major effort to assess Russian casualties a couple of months ago and could identify only 4000 Russians killed. Obviously it will have increased slightly since then and does not include LPR/DPR/Wagner casualties. In contrast a leaked Ukrainian government report mentioned over 190,000 casualties (not broken down into killed/wounded). 2) Inflation isn't going away any time soon. Biden just signed the inflation reduction bill which is actually going to contribute to inflation because it spends lots of printed money. Inflation has already claimed the scalp of Boris Johnson in Britain and Draghi in Italy. There have been large protests in France, Italy, Germany and especially Netherlands. Canada and the USA look to be politically fragile. Heavy spending on Ukraine isn't sustainable. 3) EU countries have made only token preparations. Germany is now talking about needing to make a 20% reduction in electricity consumption over winter. That's impossible without throwing millions out of work. Fertiliser and aluminium production in Europe is already shutting down and we're still in the summer. Electricity prices in much of Europe are already up to seven times higher than two years ago and gas prices similar. Many people won't be able to afford to heat their houses in countries which get cold enough for the sea to freeze. Poles have been told to gather firewood because there won't be enough gas, you're wrong that Poland doesn't depend on Russia for energy. LPG imports to Europe aren't anywhere near enough to offset Russian gas. US LPG exports to Europe are already dropping because of the high LPG price in USA. I agree that the USA will not be directly affected except by higher prices. Unemployed Germans freezing and hungry over the winter will notice the unequal burden borne by the NATO effort to sanction Russia.
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  1198.  @jamiestone1809  I completely agree with you about immigration. It has questionable short term economic benefits with vast costs longer term of all kinds. I do understand your point about lower taxes don't help out poorer people as much. Public policy is all about trade offs. Overall, poorer parents would be better off by 1) Completely stopping low skilled immigration so market forces push up low skilled pay 2) Rolling back the excessive regulation around child care which mean we have (from memory) the second most expensive child care in Europe (the continent, not the EU) after Slovakia and Switzerland (relative to earnings) I'm not arguing against all child benefits, I'm just highly sceptical of direct benefits. For example there used to be universal free milk in schools i.e. not means tested. Why can't we do that now (part from political correctness?). I'm also fine with some subsidies for child care. The problem with direct benefits, it creates perverse incentives. The poorest people have a strong financial incentive to have more children for the benefits. For higher earning people, the benefits are negligible relative to the opportunity costs. It's not PC to say this but differential fertility rates have seen the genetic component of intelligence fall drastically in Western countries over the past 150 years especially in Britain. Until say 20 years ago, this was masked by improving environment, eg. nutrition, health care etc. but it's really starting to become obvious now. Immigration is a huge problem too of course but we're rapidly becoming a third world country and the fact that less intelligent people have substantially more children on average is one of the two big reasons. Although I agree with you about immigration, differential fertility across let's say the capability spectrum is a really huge problem almost nobody is aware of. There's some very convincing mathematical and genetic evidence behind this long term trend.
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  1218.  @EyeOfMagnus4E201  Interesting points - I think you're underrating both the Russians and the Ukrainians. Have a look at the size of the professional Finnish army - it's tiny. Sure the American 101 division or British regular infantry or whatever are good soldiers but that's a pretty tiny number of guys. The point is both Ukraine and Russia but especially Ukraine are fighting mainly with conscripts/reservists. The pre-war Ukrainian professional army is gone just like the high quality pre-war British professional army was gone by late 1915. Dead or injured or at best diluted in a much bigger replacement of civilians. In Russia's case most of the guys fighting now are at least volunteers who have to do service anyway and sign on for Ukraine partly from patriotism, partly because the pay is pretty good. But there's plenty of the prewar professionals left too. The regular Russian army hasn't even taken high casualties apart from the VDV maybe. Only the pre war DPR/LPR guys have taken the brutal kind of casualties the Ukrainian professionals have. But the Ukrainian army now is mainly guys who were not soldiers before the war. Obviously some of them will now be battle hardened veterans but a lot don't want to be there at all. The average age is about 43 last I heard. Some are as high as 70. If Finland fought a war with Russia it's going to be the same thing. There'll be a tiny number of high quality well trained professionals but the vast majority of the Finnish army are going to be guys who don't get a choice. Many of whom would rather be with their families or safe overseas. Same for other NATO countries. As for Russian casualties the only reliable source we have is Mediazona who spends a serious effort tracking down obituaries and similar from Russian newspapers and websites. They only found around 40,000 KIA. And look at the chronology of when they are, it's mainly from 2022. Since the Russians got themselves organised their casualties just haven't been that high. The British MOD claims and US gov claims are just propaganda you can ignore just like Russian claims about Ukrainian casualties. I realise this isn't the website where people are going to want to hear Ukraine is getting a kicking but I'm following the fighting for a couple of hours a day and from where I'm sitting it's looking pretty damn one sided nowadays.
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  1409.  @tsubadaikhan6332  Possibilities to consider 1) They already have most of the territory they want - with the exception of Donetsk oblast which is so heavily defended that advances are very slow. 2) Once the Ukrainian army has collapsed, it's relatively easy to take the rest of the territory they want. The Ukrainian army is suffering high attrition and desertion so although collapse hasn't happened yet, it's probably inevitable rather than just conceivable. I don't know for sure exactly what territory Russia wants but it already has the land bridge to Crimea and the city of Mariupol (which rebelled against Kiev in 2014). It has already secured the Azov Sea and Crimea's water supplies and the best farm land in the country and most of the coal fields and most of the gas fields. Quite likely they'll want Kharkov too and Odessa (other cities with large pro-Russian movements) but who knows? The other consideration is that Russia is playing a very cool game. Avoiding sudden movements avoids unduly alarming the rest of the world. This artillery war of attrition plays to Russia's strengths diplomatically and militarily. As for Kherson, check the latest reports. The Russians are already regaining the villages the Ukrainians took at high cost over the past couple of days. Supply lines? Don't you think the Russians have barges? Pontoon bridges? A huge fleet of heavy lift helicopters? Ukrainian attacks on logistics are about preventing a Russian attack north of Mikulayev, not about seriously retaking Kherson which is just militarily impossible.
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  1680.  @Paul-wo3qh  The Soviets in Afghanistan was not the modern Russian state anyway. You might as well blame the Ukrainians for what happened there which is no different from the two dozen proxy wars the Americans fought in the Cold War. The Russians in Syria are there at the behest of the Syrian government and were fighting ISIS, barbaric Islamic extremists backed by the USA. Ask yourself why the US is backing ISIS in Syria. All the rest are about Russia holding itself together and upholding the rights and safety of Russians in ex Soviet territory. What Russia is doing in Ukraine is no different from what the USA would do in Mexico or Canada if the Chinese (or Russians) staged a coup in those countries and tried to create a well armed enemy on the USA's door step. Look at the Monroe doctrine. US meddling in Ukraine has killed hundreds of thousands of people and has been a total catastrophe for the Ukrainian nation from which it will never recover. Even from the US's selfish viewpoint, continued opposition to Russia is moronic. It just pushes Russia and China into an unnecessary alliance. Smarter by far for the US would be to improve relations with both so all three would balance each other and the US would be the stronger of the three. Instead, Russia and China together are a very powerful coalition. As for Europe, making an enemy of Russia is even worse. After the US realises Ukraine is a losing proposition, Europe is left with a rearmed, reinvigorated and hostile Russia on its doorstep. It has lost its cheap gas probably for decades and will have to heavily increase military spending. And that's the best case - assuming we can avoid further escalation.
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  2081. ​ @alexandermackie7621  The big picture is that before the war, America was the only superpower, the threat of devastating sanctions constrained other great powers like Russia and China. 1) America created this proxy war in Ukraine, Russia got pushed into an intolerable position and has now broken out of the post cold war era. Most of the world outside of the West is now detaching from the American order. 2) Armaments to Ukraine have prolonged the war but are straining Western economies already stretched from lockdowns. Inflation is out of control and even raising interest rates won't help as much as usual because much of the inflation comes from energy costs. Armaments to Ukraine have severely depleted Western militaries e.g. French generals warned their government they're currently too depleted to fight a war. 3) Financial and energy sanctions against Russia have backfired, we're looking at economic collapse in much of Europe this winter when the gas runs out. Energy intensive industries are already closing, just today Slovakia shut down aluminium production - aluminium will have be imported from Russia instead. Financial sanctions on Russia have pushed non Western countries into developing alternatives. China and Russia are now setting up international competition to SWIFT and a new BRICS currency for international transactions. Huge own goal by America there. For the first time, large amounts of oil and gas are being traded in a currency other than US dollars. 4) The totally insane timing of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan antagonises China and contributes to China's orientation away from the West and towards Russia. Far from Russia being isolated, the rest of the world is pivoting away from the West. Obviously there are plenty of small ones but that's the big picture. It'll be clearer by spring next year after Europe has had an economic meltdown, many current Western leaders have gone and Western solidarity against Russia is broken.
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  2288. Sorry to be pedantic but it would be a battalion rather than a regiment. There are lots of stories like this unit falling to 1%. It's important to be aware that usually after a battle like this, many of these men would not be casualties, they were either in reserve, doing jobs which didn't require them to attack (e.g. at least 50 men for a battalion including wagon drivers, signallers, medical aid post staff etc) or simply lost and a lot of men often found ways to avoid making the attack at all. Units get disorganised and mixed up. When someone tries to do a roll call after an attack, the roll call is only going to be of the men who can be immediately found. For example a Seaforths battalion did an attack, only two men could be found afterwards. Casualties were very high but a lot of men appeared days later after other battalions came up to occupy the captured ground. Some of them were pinned down in a German trench which now found itself in no man's land. Some had been temporarily commandeered by an officer from a neighbouring battalion in an occupied German trench. Some had probably just gone to ground and hidden in a shell crater somewhere. It's already been mentioned this regiment is wrong; usually when a battalion took very high casualties and had to be amalgamated, battalions were amalgamated within the same regiment rather than being transferred to another regiment. This could well have happened in 1918 I don't think it's likely in 1916 when the pre-war regimental system was still pretty strong. This was pretty rare in 1916, there were still enough new men coming through to rebuild shattered battalions. It became more common in 1917 when, due to casualties, infantry manpower was shrinking.
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  2455. ​ @ClownCarCoup  I don't know why you think the Russians are bluffing. Even Zeihan who is a pretty extreme anti-Russian propagandist admits this war is existential for Russia. Look at it from Russia's perspective. You don't have to agree 100% but look at how they see it. NATO kept expanding eastwards despite multiple pledges given to the Russians this would not happen. Minsk II accords was a fraud, even Hollande and Merkel and Poroshenko admit that. USA is stationing nuclear capable missiles (so Russia can't tell whether they're nuclear armed) in Poland. Soon before the war Zelensky was talking about Ukraine acquiring nuclear weapons. Kamala Harris explicitly said Ukraine would join NATO. It's one red line too many for the Russians. Now they've crossed the Rubicon they're not backing down, if they were actually losing somehow, they'd escalate. You can bet 100% certain they'd use tactical nukes if Crimea were seriously threatened. So what's the actual point of escalation for the USA? To kill a few more Russians? The Russians won't forgive or forget that, they'll return the favour next time the US is in some overseas war. For Ukraine to actually win? That's even more dangerous than Ukraine losing. That's the path to WWIII which is highly likely going to wipe out both sides. Do you want your family dead to stop Russia controlling Donetsk and Mariupol? Guess what the people who live in those cities would rather be part of Russia anyway. The only smart thing to do is negotiate seriously and in good faith and cut a deal with the Russians that recognises what Putin calls "facts on the ground". Don't force the Russias to fight all the way to Kiev and Odessa because the Ukrainians are going to run out of men and the Russians will manage it eventually
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  2836.  @madhealerofwindurst807  1) From Russia's perspective, broken promises made to the Soviet Union are evidence of NATO (American) treachery. Legally, you are correct. But look at it from Russia's perspective - they feel they have been swindled over and over by the West. It seems to me they have a point. 2) Yes, Russia is a revanchist superpower, several countries bordering Russia feel threatened. Not necessarily rationally in most of these cases (Finland and Sweden). In the case of the Baltic states, poor relations with Russia make NATO membership vital - but poor relations with Russia are also their deliberate choice as much as Russia's choice. Latvia for example has a very poor record regarding its large ethnic Russian minority. 3) Russia views Ukraine as an American puppet state (IMO at least partially correctly). Russia had an issue not so much with NATO as a whole (although it is undeniably an anti-Russian alliance) but with the Ukrainian government specifically. An anti-Russian government in Ukraine is a severe problem for Russia just as an anti-American government in Mexico or Canada would be for the USA. If Russian launched a successful coup in Mexico and installed a pro-Russian government, you can guarantee the USA would invade Mexico immediately. I agree with you that a direct Russian invasion of NATO territory will definitely not happen... because Putin is very shrewd and Russia has nothing to gain by this even if the risk were low. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia takes Moldova but all the talk in the media about rolling into Poland and Latvia etc is just ridiculous war propaganda to motivate NATO populations. This is why Finland and Sweden joining NATO is irrational. They sacrifice good relations with Russia for no advantage. Finland especially has much to lose by this action.
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  3083.  @philliptemple9841  Thousands of innocent woman and children maimed - reminds me of Madeleine Albright saying yeah it's worth it when asked about the half a million Iraqis killed from the 2003 war. If the Russians were really fighting a dirty war, how come Kharkiv still has water and electricity and internet when the Russians could easily cut all of them with shelling? They're close enough to make that city unliveable for its million population if they wanted to. As for Russians taking territory - firstly, do we know they really care about taking territory? Maybe they already took most of what they want. Do they want to take huge chunks of Ukraine that they'd have to rebuild afterwards? Or do they just want the places like Mariupol where the population is pretty pro-Russian already? Because right now, the Russians are taking very low casualties and the Ukrainians are not. Secondly, how would any army advance quickly in this kind of war? The Ukrainians have plenty of infantry anti-armour weapons. The Russians tried armoured spearheads in the first month and payed a high price. Now, they're only advancing where the Ukrainians retreat or have mainly been killed by shelling. In other words the Russians are very careful about risking their own infantry. What would say the American army do in the same situation? I'd guess they'd take their time and use their firepower advantage too. What I can say is if the Russians are advancing slowly, they're still advancing relentlessly. Sooner or later the Ukrainian army will collapse. We can be sure about this because even the better units are retreating without orders or refusing to move to the front. Given the situation even if the Russians wanted to take all of Ukraine which they almost certainly don't, the best strategy seems to be keep pounding the Ukrainians so long as they stand and fight until their army disintegrates rather than push hard and pay the high casualties of assaulting intact defenders.
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  3334.  @michaeltoms7040  If Ukraine is able to cut the water off to Crimea - and that's a big if - then that's going to convince Crimeans they should be part of Ukraine about as much as Russia is convincing the people of Kiev they should be part of Russia by cutting off their electricity. Actually cutting off the water before the war is a big reason why so many people in Crimea hate the Kiev regime As for rebuilding Ukraine - who's going to do that? Certainly not Britain. Britain's heading into probably the worst recession of our lives and is actually cutting military spending, foreign aid and raising taxes. Certainly not Germany. Germany is deindustrialising - its manufacturing model was built on cheap Russian gas. Certainly not America. America can't afford it either and the population is sick of foreign wars, they're still wondering how they managed to waste two trillion in Afghanistan with nothing to show for it. These tens of billions of aid given to Ukraine - the vast majority was actually loans, not presents. Ukraine started off amongst the poorest countries in Europe and is losing millions of people to emigration. If there isn't a negotiated peace soon, the Russians have already demonstrated they can easily cut off electricity to the cities, most people still remaining will leave over the winter because the alternative is sitting in a dark and literally freezing apartment block with no lifts, no water and for many, no ability to even earn money. Even before the war, a lot of Ukrainians were desperate to get to the EU. Once they actually make that step, most won't want to go back even if there is some kind of peace.
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  3405. ​ @xeganxerxes4319  I do agree that Putin almost certainly underestimated Ukrainian resistance. We can only speculate as to why but one good reason would be the incompetence of the Ukrainian army in the 2014-2015 war when the Russians creamed them with modest resources. Obviously a lot changed since then. Why would Putin launch the invasion with little preparation? Again I can only give an opinion. Two reasons - he was hoping he wouldn't have to. They probably decided they had no choice when on 22nd Feb. Kamala Harris gave a speech suggesting Ukraine should join NATO - this is after years of the Russians pleading that this was their red line and the Americans knew they weren't bluffing (see Burns cable in wikileaks - "Nyet means Nyet"). And secondly, the Russians knew the Americans had spies so they went to great lengths to keep the plans secret. Mid level commanders got their orders maybe 24 hours before hand, junior commanders at the last minute. As for invading Poland etc. That's completely ridiculous, Russia was never going to do that. Putin didn't even want to annex pro-Russian Donetsk and Lugansk before the war, he wanted them to remain in a federalised Ukraine - otherwise why sign the Minsk accords? Only mid war did this policy change. Anyone who says the Russians are going stomp all over Eastern Europe after Ukraine is a clown like Peter Zeihan or is lying for self interest like these NATO generals arguing for bigger budgets. In Soviet times Russia already controlled too much non ethnically Russian territory and it was just a huge cost to them.
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  3498.  @probusexcogitatoris736  Some of what you say is correct. Obviously the Russian army hoped for a swift Ukrainian collapse and that didn't happen. Obviously their plan B was to surround Kiev and get a capitulation by putting pressure on the city. That also didn't happen. You can call that a humiliation if you want but Ukraine is a major military power, this isn't Iraq or the Taleban. The Western media was full of burned out Russian tanks but the Ukrainians took heavy losses too. Anyway, the Russian army plan C is definitely working well. They've taken a huge chunk of Ukraine - permanently. They're grinding down the Ukrainian army at little cost to themselves in the Donbass. Cities like Mariupol and Kherson are never going back to the Ukrainian state. The Azov sea is a Russian lake and that's not going to change. The most valuable wheat area is going to be annexed by Russia or become Russian satellite states. Crimea's water is secure. All of the territory taken so far is ethnically Russian and either anti-Kiev regime or at worst ambivalent. Russia's not going to be facing any kind of protracted guerrilla warfare there. Probably the same will be true for Kharkov and Odessa when the time comes. Many pro Russians were murdered in both in 2014, it's unlikely to be hard for Russia to get the population onside. Probably you're looking at the slow progress of Russia on the map and perhaps too believing of the triumphalist headlines about Ukrainian counter offensives that rarely amount to gains enduring more than a few days. Russian progress is slow - but it's also relentless. More important than territory captured is the dispareity in casualties due to Russia's vast air and artillery superiority. Even the a top Ukrainian politician admitted they're taking up to 200 killed per day so that probably amounts to about a thousand per day when you include injured. How long will Ukrainian soldiers be prepared to take those kind of losses? Especially the ethnic Russians who are fighting for a country which has often acted to them with hostility? Look at POWs - Ukraine has about 300 Russians (or maybe 600 if you believe the Ukrainian government), the Russian side has about 8000 Ukrainian POWs. 2500 from Mariupol alone. In contrast, although the Russians took heavy losses in the first month, that's no longer true in general. For one thing they're using DPR, LPR, Chechans and Wagner mercenaries to do most of the close in fighting and they usually only attack positions once the artillery has pulverised any defenders. Russia is still using its peacetime army. It can sustain this kind of military effort for a long time to come.
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  3500.  @probusexcogitatoris736  For sure Russia's economy is going to hurt. But there's a couple of things I disagree about. Russia isn't trying to hold up the rouble - quite the opposite. It's buying gold to try to force the rouble down. Russian export receipts are through the roof because the oil price is so high. Oligarchs can't export their wealth any more because the West is freezing their offshore assets. And Russian imports have fallen so yeah - they have a balance of payments crisis but the crisis is how to hold the rouble down, not how to prop it up! You note that Europe and the USA are huge markets but I suggest what's really important from Russian's point of view is not so much the size of the market in general but the size of the market for gas, oil and food - those are the strategic resources which Russia wants to export. For food, Europe and America are pretty unimportant, in normal times they're exporting food - although without Russian/Ukrainian fertiliser, that changes too. For oil, America is pretty irrelevant because America is roughly self sufficient. Europe is indeed a big oil market but certainly much smaller than Asia. And actually it's the size of the European market which makes it valuable because it can't just get what it needs from another exporter. Gas is the interesting one. Russia can't export much except to Europe although it does have a pipeline to Asia. Although Russia can survive without its main market temporarily at least, if the gas runs out in Europe in winter then the economy doesn't just contract, it collapses. Blackouts. Factory closures. No heating, pipes bursting - total chaos. Combined with food prices doubling and possible starvation in Africa, mass migration from there to Europe - I don't know if Europeans realise how vulnerable they are.
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  3549. ​ @Klaatu-gl7jg  I don't know what a monkey currency is but it's interesting that so many Western commentators predicted the rouble would crash upon the imposition of sanctions. If any currency seems to be doing badly just now, it's the Euro since the Euro zone's economic prospects for next year are dire. I think you are overestimating how the balance of power is changing in the world. At the end of WWII, the USA had half the world's GDP and the "West" had a large proportion of the world's population and almost all of the world's educated population. Over time, the West is declining demographically and the rest of the world is catching up economically - not necessarily per capita but certainly in absolute terms. The West in contrast has political instability (over half of the US population excepts a civil war and countries like Sweden and France have huge problems assimilating their immigrants). And economically, the West is unsustainable. It has unaffordable bureaucratic and welfare costs. Am I correct in guessing you are from Finland? If so, congratulations, Finland seems to be an especially well organised Western country. Most of the West is more corrupt, less efficient and more internally cohesive. Outside of the West, the rest of the world looks at Russia very differently. Most of the world regards the USA as a cynical and hypocritical bully - and Ukraine as a corrupt American proxy that continues to make ridiculous and absurd claims for example that the Russians are shelling themselves with mines in Donetsk and that they're shelling a nuclear power plant which they control themselves. It doesn't necessarily matter whether we agree or disagree ourselves, the fact is this is how most people in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and at least some countries in South America think about this war. As for Europe - well we will disagree here I think. I expect that by the end of the winter, the consensus we saw against Russia after the invasion will be completely broken. I don't know where each individual country will stand but I give you two examples. Already in Italy, the new government wants to improve relations with Russia. Even more interestingly, in Poland, the same prime minister who only weeks ago was criticising the Germans for their lax response to Russia is now talking about the need to negotiate.
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  3810.  @marvinc9994  Several points. According to the logic you present, Kosovo should still be part of Serbia. It was taken off Serbia by force. Also, the American revolution was illegitimate because the British empire as a whole should have decided whether the 13 states should be allowed independence. The phrase "nation state" is problematic: a nation is a group of people who consider themselves a distinct group related by ancestry and culture. A nation can coincide with a state's borders and often does for example Japan is undeniably a nation state, the vast majority of the population of Japan belong to the Japanese nation. But Ukraine is not a nation state. It is a state containing many nations of which the Ukrainians are merely the biggest. I don't think a "nation state" is a concept in international law, what counts is the "sovereign state". The problem is, the prestige of international law went out the window because it's so blatantly disregarded by the USA. In other words, international law is only worth the paper its printed on if someone is prepared to enforce it. America considered itself the only super power so it felt free to disregard it for over two decades. Now, China and Russia are challenging that hegemony and its a bit late to start pretending international law is anything more than a convention or guideline that binds great powers. As for planting Russians in Crimea, what's the evidence of this? What evidence is there than Russia moved people to Crimea to change the demographics since the end of the Soviet Union? Ethnic Russians have been an outright majority there for around a hundred years. Crimea was Russian long before it was Ukrainian, in fact it was transferred to Ukraine by Khrushchev in the 1950s. Yes Stalin deported Tartars around the 1940s because some of them supported Germany, what responsibility does modern Russia have for the actions of this Georgian dictator? And actually how is this any different from the USA moving its ethnically Japanese population away from the coast? If you suppose the Tartars have any special right to Crimea more than anyone else, remember they're not an indigenous people, they conquered it before the Russians did. The phrase "certain Russophiles" implies it's just a small minority who support Russia. In Donetsk and Crimea, it's the vast majority who want to be part of Russia. Even many of the ethnic Ukrainians prefer to be part of Russia for various reasons - including distrust of the Ukrainian nationalists, the post Maidan situation in Ukraine and the vastly more generous Russian pensions. My point is not that Russia is in the right in Ukraine. it's just that it's not doing anything there that America didn't do first elsewhere. At least Russia in Ukraine has the excuse that its protecting the interests of ethnic Russians and legitimately safeguarding its own security. America can't genuinely argue anything comparable in Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Somalia or Serbia. I'm not pro-Russian, I have no personal stake either way, it's the Western hypocrisy I find tiresome.
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  4290.  @ilovetechnology8436  I agree. The thing is from the Russian perspective, places like Crimea are Russian. Conquored two hundred years ago. Given to Ukraine by Khrushchev as part of his own political manoevering. The people who live there are mainly Russian and have been since the Second World War (the Tartars got deported by Stalin eastwards). Yes, at a moment of weakness after the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia accepted this as Ukrainian territory but after the Maidan coup displaced the democratically elected president, and after a decade of NATO expansion eastwards despite promises this would not happen, Russia reneged on that agreement. As for places like Donetsk and Luhansk, likewise, Novorossiya, the people there are of Russian origin, speak Russian and overwhelmingly consider themselves Russian rather than Ukrainian. Places like Odessa, Kherson and Kharkov, likewise Russian speaking, Russian origin and many are pro-Russian though a decade of Ukrainian propaganda means many, perhaps the majority now consider themselves Ukrainian. It's a bit like places like Alsace - the population could go either way, German origin, German language but lots of French influence too. When Germany controlled the area, the population accepted that. When French controlled the area the population accepted that too - because they're neither completely one or the other, they're a bit of both. As for who rightfully owns the area, that was decided by force of arms. Over and over, in Napoleon's time, in the 1870s war, then in the First World War, most recently in the Second World War. It's going to be same with Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk and probably other places too. You can call it a land grab or you can call it rightfully reclaiming part of Russia. Which one you call it depends on which side you're on.
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  4349. Bizarre how this guy thinks the Russians are in a weak position. Across most of the line, they're just sitting back and pouring shells on Ukrainian positions and waiting for the West to collapse economically and lose interest. The Russian army are taking very few casualties. Most of their front line fighting is done by DPR/LPR and Wagner mercenaries, the regular Russian army just gets rotated in and out, building up combat experience. The Russian population is solidly behind the war. The Russian economy hasn't collapsed like most Western leaders and media predicted it would, it's actually holding up better than European economies. The Ukrainian economy in contrast is on life support and won't survive the winter even if the Russians don't try to advance. The Ukrainians have just launched their first serious attack in weeks. All we know so far is they took heavy losses and captured a few villages. Impressive given their paucity of armour, artillery and air support but let's get real. The Russians have a huge air mobile reserve accumulated over the past couple of weeks. If the Russians really do feel themselves under pressure, it's available to plug any gaps. I'll personally be immensely surprised if the Ukrainians reach the outskirts of Kherson much less capture Kherson. More likely the Russians will wait for the Ukrainians to overcommit and burn their reserves before launching a major counter attack. This is the German spring offensive in 1918. The Ukrainians will capture some strategically unimportant territory but at high casualties to themselves of the best of their army. The effort will leave them vulnerable to a Russian counter strike which is likely to be sooner rather than later.
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  4420.  @d93atomic  You're wrong about important facts which invalidate your arguments. Start with "strong evidence of a mass genocide going on that country" Mass genocide going on in Serbia. What is that "strong evidence".? There is plenty of evidence there was a genocide in Bosnia. There were thousands of people murdered - by all factions, of all factions. We know what happened, who did it, who the victims were. There's nothing comparable in Kosovo, not before NATO bombing commenced. You shouldn't be surprised by this, we had the same kind of media fabrications with both the Iraq wars. Do you remember the media telling us Iraqi soldiers were turning off incubators in a maternity hospital? Where are those WMD the second war was started to destroy? The actual ethnic cleansing was after the war when the NATO sponsored ethnic Kosovans killed, intimidated and expelled almost all the remaining ethnic Serbs. When NATO bombed Serbia, NATO aircraft attacked civilian targets including a television tower, the Chinese embassy and a passenger train. Deliberately targeting a television tower was officially a war crime but NATO dismissed this because it was "broadcasting propaganda". Compare to Ukraine - since the US sponsored (and funded) Maidan coup violently deposed the democratically elected president, Ukrainian nationalists and the SBU murdered hundreds of people including over 50 in the Odessa fire from which nobody was ever prosecuted despite hundreds of witnesses. The SBU abducted, tortured and murdered people. The Ukrainian army has been shelling what it claims are its own people since 2014 including showering Donetsk city with petal mines, mines which have little military utility but main adults and kill children. Ukrainian politicians openly talked about exterminating Russians. Even the Western media was alarmed at genocidal extreme nationalism in Ukraine. If Russia wanted to make a propaganda case for a humanitarian intervention, it had a lot of material to work with.
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