Comments by "annoyed aussie" (@annoyedaussie3942) on "Monkeypox, multiple mutations confirmed" video.

@laughingachilles life expectancy is about 75 and you stated an average of once a generation. The other thing is if you know a little about probability the chances of pandemics occurring will keep increasing because the population has quadrupled in the last 100 years and that doesn't mean the probability multiplies by 4 , it will be greater than that, factory farming of animals also can increase the possibility of outbreaks. Compared to 100 years ago when it would take months for an outbreak to spread due to transportation at the time it now takes about 2 weeks to travel to every major country in the world if it's infectious enough like covi SARS 2 was. So to me there's nothing at all out of the ordinary.
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Actually not that unlikely, if we go by your odds it's roughly a one in 25 chance. 3 years at a one in 75 chance each year gives us about 1 in 25 chance. The odds don't change just because 1 virus outbreak has occurred. So given these odds there's a 1 in 75 chance we will get another one within a year.
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@laughingachilles the odds are as I presented if you suggest that it's one in 75 chance per year. Hardly astronomical. You also pointed out there's been many outbreaks of newly detected viruses. As far as monkey pox it's still far less harmful so far compared to MERS or SARS 1.
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Of course it will behave differently in countries with zero immunity than countries where it's endemic and somewhere between many and some already have immunity.
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