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annoyed aussie
Dr. John Campbell
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Comments by "annoyed aussie" (@annoyedaussie3942) on "Apparent reinfections in Brazil" video.
The alternate view is up to 12 week comprehensive lockdown in all countries with cases and go to 0. Very difficult in poor countries with slums but achievable in all wealthy countries.
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Regardless of the virus you should do something about that weight if you can.
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Sounds unfortunate.
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The US has never shut the border to anywhere as long as US citizen and no hotel quarantine, so no change in policy so far, talk about enforcement of self quarantine but not going to happen in my opinion and can still stay in a house with others while in self quarantine, pretty pointless actually, Australia, New Zealand etc. can't prevent occasional quarantine breeches at hotels so impossible people live together and nobody gets the virus.
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Coming from the covi sars2 virus free world , we wonder why other countries from the diseased world, especially wealthy one don't just lockdown properly for 12 weeks or so and be done with it, and keep border shut without hotel quarantine. Waiting for summer would theoretically make it easier but who knows with these diseased world super strains.
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What you say doesn't follow, with an R0 of 1.5 even you would only expect 6 infections, if no superspreader. The virus is actually fairly slow moving when you think about it, it's just it's exponential so after 10 weeks with R0 of 1.5 you have 225 cases per week based on starting with 4. The problem is the real R0 is far more variable and probably jumps to 10 or something everytime it encounters a nursing home or nightclub.
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@johmyh14 I think you meant interbreeding not inbreeding, the pure homosapiens in subsaharan Africa can run better, the mongrels in most of the rest of the world can swim better. So being mixed homosapien and neanderthal has its advantages as does being a pure bred, not sure how those with Denisovan blood in them have advantages or disadvantages.
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I don't think UK or US will be anywhere near herd immunity in the next couple of months however the weather will get better and in theory at least most vulnerable vaccinated so cases and deaths should go down fairly quickly, but if a strain significantly evades more than one vaccine then could be a case of not much has changed but better weather means in theory could still successful before next cold season. Israel because of its rapid rollout and assuming Palestinian soon after which is fairly likely I would expect should be fine even if have strains that evade vaccines so long as put in hotel quarantine. We will see.
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@endintiers the thing is though border restrictions is a partial lockdown and need to get cases really low internally too, both Japan and South Korea increase restrictions internally now because they never get rid of it. An open border only locks down poor people because rich can just travel to another open borders country with fewer restrictions whenever they feel like it. It amazes me people refer to open borders as still a lockdown, tell that to some maximum security prisoner next time they have a lockdown they are permitted to leave the prison, pretty sure it won't make sense to them.
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We know the cure, get rid of it but vaccines alone may not achieve this.
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Wait for 10 variants of concern probably doesn't increase your chances.
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