Comments by "Dorian Shades of gray" (@dorianshadesofgray2981) on "Hong Kong’s COVID-19 surge" video.

Sweden’s herd immunity option is looking more and more attractive
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@Aimee A. The whole idea with herd immunity is to take the hit early, the problem Sweden initially had was that it did not protect it’s aged cared well enough , hence the high early death rates, however, now their daily death rates are at zero and they have not shut their borders or closed their schools and their citizens can go about their lives as per normal. Whereas every other country in the world have some form of restrictions with their businesses, large gathering etc. With regards to the levels required for herd immunity research on T cells and the effect they have on providing immunity reduces the levels to achieve herd immunity to around 10%. Those countries that have tried protecting young people who have a very low chance of dying will result in a prolonged period , possibly years where infections and deaths accumulate and businesses will always be restricted unless in the very unlikely situation where a vaccine is developed.
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@Aimee A. There’s no doubt Sweden took a big risk with a novel coronavirus, however they were forced down this herd immunity path as their constitution does not allow a lockdown. Based on the data, it appears that Sweden at around 10% infection has achieved herd immunity, similarly we could say New York has also achieved herd immunity. Both regions took a big hit with infection rates and deaths but are basically at zero deaths now. The problem is we have not been able to come up with a vaccine for a coronavirus ( such as SARS and MERS) in over 2 decades and it is highly unlikely we will come up with an effective vaccine for some time, if at all. So we have to learn to live with this virus in our midst and we also have to weigh up the losses of life from suicide and alcohol and drug abuse that increases significantly due to lockdowns. To me this means we have to protect the elderly and allow the under 60s to keep the economy ticking over whilst still social distancing etc .
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@J C that 70% figure is based on a very simple model of ( 1-1/Ro) where Ro is estimated around 3. Attached is a more in depth look at herd immunity threshold and estimates it could be as low as 10% to 20%. Go to line 108 for the section on herd immunity https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341108416_Individual_variation_in_susceptibility_or_exposure_to_SARS-CoV-2_lowers_the_herd_immunity_threshold/fulltext/5eae28d5299bf18b9591002c/Individual-variation-in-susceptibility-or-exposure-to-SARS-CoV-2-lowers-the-herd-immunity-threshold.pdf?origin=publication_detail
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@J C there is a direct correlation with case fatality and age , so that 1 to 3 % drops to 0.2% for under 50s , So if the over 60s are isolated and protected from the virus then the hospitalisations and deaths from this virus will be minimal as the data shows young healthy people are unlikely to be hospitalised or die from this virus. So I would rather see a strategy where the elderly are isolated and the young healthy population go about their business keeping the economy ticking over whilst developing herd immunity amongst themselves. Of course there would still be social distancing etc to make sure hospitals aren’t overloaded , but at no stage should another economy destroying lockdown occur.
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@Aimee A. All I can add is that this is a very well presented video and I highly recommend everyone watch it.
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@Walter Bo we are in the middle of a global pandemic and every countries economy has suffered. Some a lot worse than others. When this pandemic is over, we will see which countries recover quicker. I suspect that many countries who have gone into severe lockdowns will result in the killing off of many small businesses who are the life blood of an economy. Whereas countries like Sweden whose businesses are still ticking over are in a much better position to recover.
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