Comments by "John Adam" (@johnadam2885) on "DW News"
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The lady lies about the Budapest Memorandum. It was not in exchange for giving away nukes. Ukraine would not have got independence in the first place without giving up the nukes. Those nukes were built by Russia and the command and control was with Russia. Secondly, the Budapest Memorandum envisages that Russia, the UK and the US would not threaten the security of Ukraine - but it states that the security of ALL signatories would not be threatened (that is, it is not just about Ukraine's security). Ukraine was not going to threaten US and UK. The Budapest Agreement did not envisage that Ukraine will be used by the US to threaten Russia. In effect, the US, UK and Ukraine ganged up against Russia which was against the letter and spirit of the Budapest Memorandum. The three refused negotiations just before the war started in 2022. They thought that Russia was bluffing and then when military action started, they thought they could defeat Russia with economic and military means. In 2022, three months into the war, Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement in Istanbul, but the UK and US blocked it and asked Ukraine to continue the war. It did not work out for Ukraine and the west, after the failure of the 2023 counter offensive. Now Ukraine has lost more and it cannot get back what it lost; and if it continues, it will lose more. Ukraine and the west cannot complain after defeat. Due to the defeat, the US wants to withdraw and is ordering Russia to cease fire and negotiate ! The loser wants to set the terms of peace. But it does not work that way. Sir Vladimir had said when Ukraine reneged on the Istanbul agreement that next time, the settlement will be on Russian terms.
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@mag-s7 'Russia GDP = Spain GDP'
That is an irrelevant comparison. It matters what is in the GDP. Spain's GDP is olives, tourism some cars, parts of Airbus. Russia's GDP includes steel, metals like titanium alloys, gold, uranium, planes, tanks, fertilisers, it is the biggest supplier of wheat, it launches satellites and has its own GPS, and now its own banking system. Can Spain do any of these ? Can any European countries do this ? So don't make dumb comparisons. Russia has beaten the collective west. Get it ? Don't dare to mess with Russia again.
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Zelensky is a very sorry wreck, just like Ukraine. In 2022, Zelensky was feted as Mr. Churchill and got standing ovations in western parliaments. He stood for democracy, and righteous western values. But by 2023, in the NATO summit in Vilnius, he started getting the cold shoulder. The British told him to show gratitude and not whinge, and Biden told him Ukraine cannot enter NATO, that magical universe Ukrainians are dying for. The 2023 counter offensive flopped, the Ukrainians could not cross even the first defence in the Surovikin line.
In 2024, Zelensky was touring the west with a victory plan. Now for 2025, he seeks a negotiated settlement. He had a chance for that in Dec. 2021, he could have agreed on neutrality and avoided the war. In 2022, Ukraine reached a negotiated settlement with Russia but Biden and Boris Johnson ordered him to scrap it. Zelensky passed a law against negotiations as long as Putin is alive. Now Zelensky wants a negotiated settlement because he sees that Trump will order him to do so.
Ukraine is not a free country. It died for imaginary western values. The shameless Americans will move on to their next war, and the useless Europeans will go with them.
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Russia did make a mistake attacking on multiple fronts and miscalculating the Ukranian resistance. But now Russia has regrouped, taken Mariopol and the coastal regions, they are making slow but relentless progress in Severodonetsk and Donbas, and the Russians will make the remaining Ukraine landlocked and strangle its economy. Besides, they have forced Ukraine to accept it cannot join NATO and NATO also understands that. The Russians are not going to stop till Ukraine signs up for neutrality and distances itself from NATO. Westerners have been predicting imminent collapse of the Russian economy due to sanctions, high losses, antiquated equipment, malfunctioning equipment, running out of equipment, Putin has cancer, he will be overthrown etc. They have been predicting Ukranian victory due to high morale, western training, western equipment. But the evidence now is Ukraine is losing strategic land and Russia has the all the strong cards.
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@pynn1000 You exaggerate NATO's capabilities. Not so long ago, NATO ran away from Kabul in the most cowardly manner. They were all vying with each other to board planes lest they were captured. The captain of the pack, the US, cut and run first, without even informing its 'allies', that is subordinates. Normally, when a ship sinks, the captain leaves last. With NATO, the captain runs away first.
Do you think such abject cowards are strong enough to fight Russia ? NATO refused to send troops to Ukraine and also refused Ukrainian request for a 'no fly zone'. Why ? Because no one in NATO wants to be killed by the Russians.
Even collectively, NATO is not strong. NATO is the US with a collection of weaklings. The US decides policy. If the US decides it needs NATO, it will ask the weaklings to come to Afghanistan to fight its war, and subordinates have to go. However, for an European war, the subordinates cannot ask the US to come and fight. The NATO command structure is run by the US, so if the US does not fight, the rest of the 30 subordinates cannot do anything.
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@joseaca1010 Due to geography and history, Ukraine's independence was always conditional - Ukraine had to give up nuclear weapons, not join any military alliance and allow Russian navy to use Sevastopol. Otherwise, there would have been no independence. There is no absolute independence, so don't impose your western views. Palestine wants independence, Israel does not allow it, the EU and US solidly back Israel - so hypocrites should not be shouting about Ukraine's absolute right to do what it wants.
Ukraine cannot join any organisation it pleases if it threatens a neighbour. If you don't understand that concept, at least understand the reality now - there will be no Ukraine as it was in 1992.
Russia did not violate the Budapest Memorandum first. It says 'The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense '.
Read the exception clause. An exceptional situation has arisen : Ukraine conspired with two (US and UK) of the three guarantors of its security against the first guarantor (Russia), to threaten the security of Russia. In this Ukraine, US and UK are guilty. Hence, the Budapest Memorandum has been violated by Ukraine, US and UK, so it is null and void for Russia, and Russia is administering the beating that is due to Ukraine. The US and UK are howling on the sideline and trying to give some aid to Ukraine, but they cannot stop the beating. Finally, it means in future negotiations, Russia cannot allow the US and UK to be guarantors of Ukraine. It will have to be Turkey, China, UN, maybe France and Germany.
Think about your shameless western duplicity that has landed Ukraine in this mess. Ukrainains are also at fault for backstabbing and not realising geography and history play a role in statecraft.
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'I don't understand either what is the point of helping Ukraine in the war if it is not to win it.'
What you need to understand is that Ukraine did not have the capacity and never will have the capacity to defeat Russia. The west should never have encouraged Ukraine to think it could join NATO and it could fight Russia and win. It was a strategic miscalculation of the US.
The west has thrown Ukraine under the bus by encouraging it to fight, and then not having the resources to do so.
'On the contrary, at the moment it seems very messy and as if the alliance does not know which way to go and what to do.'
The reason the alliance is confused is the west is fighting Russia and not Iraq or Afghanistan. Russia dangles the nuclear sword and can incinerate all western cities. So your capability to fight is restricted. Unlike Iraq or Afghanistan, the economic consequences of the war were felt immediately by the west - high inflation, de-indsutrialisation of Germany, de-dollarisation. This has led to confusion about what to do. The west said it will be with Ukraine for however long it takes, but it cannot afford it.
'Ukraine must have F16 aircraft, so start training their pilots asap. And give them the missiles they think they need most, long-range artillery, anti-aircraft defense, etc.'
None of it will make much difference. It is always going to be too little too late. The Bandera army has been massacred and there is not much left of it. The west cannot supply enough artillery shells. And if pushed, Russia will use tactical nuclear weapon on Kiev (Russia has said all weapons in its arsenal will be used if Ukraine crosses into Crimea). Don't come back and say the US will use nuclear weapons against Russia; Russia will incinerate all US cities. The Americans do not want to be exterminated for Ukranians.
Russia has Ukraine by the scruff of the neck, it will not let go and allow Ukraine to host US military bases to threaten Russia.
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There is much exaggeration about Ukraine's counter offensive and capability. They took some area defended by the Donbass militias. When the Ukranians tried a counter offensive in Kherson, where Russian troops were stationed in numbers, they were badly mauled.
The use of the word 'rout' is premature. A war is not a battle. The west thought Ukraine had won because the Russians retreated from Kiev, or because they sunk a ship, or because of their sanctions. But Russia kept going and hammered Ukraine. The Ukranians have taken 2% of what Russia had taken and it does not change the overall reality. The UKrainians are not disclosing the casualties they incurred. Russia has Donbas, the GDP creating area of Ukraine; they control the shipping lanes, and wheat only moves due to their permission; they have made Ukraine landlocked and strangled its economy; they have shut down 20% of Ukraine's electricity; Ukraine has $ 1 trillion of damage, and that keeps mounting. Russia can settle it any day with a tactical nuclear strike, or even with a conventional non-stop bombardment, they can raze Kiev. In addition, Russia is strangling the economy of Ukraine's funder, Europe. Russia is going to de-industrialise Germany and Europe. The Ukraine of 1991 will not exist again, and the US will not have NATO bases in Ukraine. All the cards are with Russia - still !
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@JamesC785 I was not talking about Budapest Memorandum. I was talking about Ukraine's independence declaration.
Even Budapest Memorandum says 'The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense'
Russia has acted in self defence in an unexpected turn of events whereby 2 of the 3 guarantors of Ukraine (US and UK) conspired with Ukraine to induct it into anti-Russian military alliance, to put missile and naval bases, to threaten Russia.
Thus, Ukraine and 2 of the 3 guarantors of Ukraine attempted to cheat. Hence, Ukraine's independence is cancelled.
In any future negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, Russia will not allow the US and UK to be guarantors. Maybe it will have to be France, Germany, Turkey and China.
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@andrew30m A chess game has reversals, and readjustments, and the Russians are the best as it. Russia could not get into Kiev, as a multi pronged attack diffused the power, so they switched the theatre to the East and concentrated forces there. And now they have Ukraine by the scruff of the neck. They have the most valuable parts, the industrial land, and the coastal land. The blockade strangles Ukraine's economy and makes it an unviable state. Now Russia feels it has the upper hand, so it does not see the point of negotiating, it might as well go forward and take half of Ukraine. As Lavrov said, any negotiations will be on Russian terms, and that means Ukraine has to cede more land.
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Just analyse the convoluted argument of Eggert to cover up for western defeat. He says Ukraine is in this (losing) position because we did not want them to win ! And why ? Because we were afraid and uncertain what will happen in Russia if Putin is overthrown !
This is an escape from reality. When you refused Putin's request for a security guarantee, it was based on your conviction that Putin would be overthrown due to sanctions. But Russia defeated you in the economic warfare designed to overthrow Putin. And you tried everything to make Ukraine win in 2023, Stoltenberg said NATO gave 98% of what Ukraine asked for the counter offensive. But that too failed.
As for taking the war to Russia, that too was not possible - not because you were afraid Putin would be overthrown, but because he would nuke you. He carries out what he says.
The writing is on the wall. Ukraine is being defeated and the aid will not making any difference. If you think allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with western missiles will work, you will find first Russia will use a tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine, and if any western country wanted to fight, they too would get it. That is what is meant buy 'we do not want Putin to fail'. Putin will not fail as he is resolute and he will use nuclear weapons (he has made that clear).
For the US govt., the only issue is that Zelensky hangs on till the election. After that, if Trump comes, he will stop support for Ukraine; and if Biden comes, he will hand the failed US project to the unfit Europeans to carry on.
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So Russians do not have proper uniforms, helmets, body armor, reasonable accommodation, training, guns that fire safely, ammunition that is not 50 years old, Medical kits, Medical treatment, sleeping bags, or pay.
But they have somehow returned Ukrainians to the 16th century, with no electricity and water. Bakhmut is now getting ready for the Mariopol treatment.
Ukraine will be returned to its agricultural roots.
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Ukraine hit by uprecedented wave of air strikes targeting energy facilities - but they and their western handlers in this video are still dreaming of getting Crimea back.
Behind the scenes, one can see a subtle shift in the western stance. The war is now not charted by Putin but by a professional Russian general Surovkin. That is how it should be. In wars, you don't hold territory if it is not defensible, you give it up, and concentrate the attack in another region or by other means. In chess, sometimes you sacrifice a knight or bishop to win the game.
Surovkin has done that. The decision is to destroy the power infra structure. The intention is not to harm civilians per se, it is to reduce Ukraine's fighting ability. Despite western media saying Russia has run out of missiles, and Russian missiles are inaccurate, and that US missile systems are shooting them down 100%, somehow Ukraine's power grid is down.
The triumphalism over Kherson is fading, as the tactic changes and Ukraine is being hit from the air. Russia should have destroyed the power infrastructure at the beginning. They were too soft. But Surovkin is not soft, he said he will take tough decisions. Withdrawing from Kherson was one, and going after the power is the other.
The west is once again realising retaking of Kherson is not going to bring a Ukranian victory. The west will have to funnel money and equipment indefinitely as Russia is capable and ready to continue. The problem for the west is that Russia has won the economic war, and they are de-industrialising Europe, so funding Ukraine becomes a problem. Russia is undermining the western financial system that the west used to control the world.
The west is now using the Polish missile strike to clip Zelenksy's wings. Normally, they will not say anything that benefits Russia, but it is a signal to Ukraine that endless funding would not be possible. Despite their public stance that Ukraine is winning (Kherson is evidence), the US has started directing Ukraine to negotiate. Zelensky does not like it, but the west is using his stance over the Polish missile to undermine him. More such incidents will occur.
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@nozhki-busha Russia has taken 4 oblasts, Ukraine is now looking for electricity, water, heating and food, they are in no position to mount any major counter offensives to dislodge the Russians. At best, they can make pin pricks.
In a war, you look at the trend, not small battles. The war is fought on several fronts : military, food, energy and financial. On the food and energy, Russia has the upper hand. Even on the financial, Russia turned the tables, the euro and pound have devalued by 20%, and there is a shift to non-dollar trade settlements. In the military field, Russia has not won outright, yet it has the upper hand; there is no way Ukraine can win. The Ukraine of 1991 is gone for good.
Russia is de-industrialising Europe. BASF has announced downsizing in Europe and shift to China, due to intolerable energy prices. China is the world's largest energy importer, yet it can offer lower energy prices to manufacturers thanks to its links with Saudi and Russia. More will follow. BMW has announced it is going to close EV production in UK and shift to China.
Sir Putin has ended the western 'global order' for good. No other country - not even China - could have done this. Russia throughout its history has done world changing things.
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These western jokers are talking now about what the west should have done - put sanctions before the operation as Ukraine demanded. As if Russia would have been defeated by that ! The reason they were delayed was the west thought putting sanctions would instigate Russia to go ahead.
Look at the muddy western minds. The only thing that would have stopped Russia was if the US agreed to a security guarantee, not to induct Ukraine into NATO. If not, they said they will go ahead with military-technical operations. Sanctions before or after would not have changed the outcome.
But such wishful and pointless statements (like 'if only we had listened to Ukraine and put sanctions early') show Ukraine and the west are defeated now.
Ukraine has lost 20% of the land that used to contribute 90% of its GDP. It has lost 20% of its electricity supply. Its shipping lanes are blocked.
As for McDonald's, sports companies etc. leaving Russia - Russia is not going to go down because of that !
All this has shown that Russia is strong militarily - and economically. Russia's economic resilience is beyond the west's expectations. Russia has shown greater political astuteness than the west.
Russia is not isolating itself economy, it is open to China and other countries. Laura is trying very hard to put on a positive spin for Ukraine - they will be integrated in the western economy through IT, and Russia will be cut off from the world ! Give me a break - first, how much of Ukraine will be left ? Secondly, IT is service industry, how many Ukrainians can profit from it. If there is no energy, there can be no IT. Thirdly, the world is not the west, cutting Russia off from the west does not mean Russia will not work with China, India, Arabs, Africans, Turkey and the rest. This war has shown Russia on its own is more powerful than the EU + US, and in future Russia + China will end western dominance.
In short, western analysts as usual tries to present a rosier than rosy picture of Ukrainian prospects, while presenting the bleakest possible picture of Russia's economy. Of course, there is no admission of the havoc Russia is playing on western economies.
The west is subsumed by false pride and the stinging pain of defeat.
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@milesinnz Your reply is feeble and based on wishful thinking.
'NATO does not set foot in Ukraine again" - when did NATO set foot before"
NATO had a training centre near Lvov. Russia struck it in the early days of the war. Western mercenaries had congregated and 40 were rendered lifeless in that missile strike. Russia is fighting to war to prevent NATO bases in Ukraine. At the end of the war, they will not allow NATO to set foot in Ukraine.
'Putin managed to get Finland and Sweden to want to join Nato'. So what - these are weak and irrelevant countries. Russia has proved 35 EU countries, UK and the US do not have the guts to enter Ukraine and fight Russia. All of you are afraid of being killed. Adding another two weaklings will not put courage into NATO. These countries only want to join NATO precisely because they are feeble.
'Now, Putin has managed to get Germany to build a tank manufacturing plant in Ukraine '.
That is a fanciful announcement, it does not mean it will happen. To build a factory takes time, Russia will destroy it with a missile. German workers will not dare go to Ukraine because they will be killed. Russia has already destroyed Ukraine's Soviet tank factory, its aircraft company. What will stop them for destroying the German tank factory ?
''Now, if there was a nuclear attack on Ukraine, Nato would move in - you can be assured that this is planed for. It would be the end of Russia.'
NATO is afraid to send a conventional army to go to Ukraine to fight Russia, they will not have the guts to fight Russia with a nuclear war. Russia has the capacity to incinerate all western cities in a blink of an eye. Before Ukraine is nuked, Russia will take the precaution of putting its nuclear missiles targeting the US and Europe on alert for strikes to eliminate all western cities if NATO dares to strike Russia. Nobody in the west wants to get killed for Ukraine.
'You need to be on the Ukraine front line, in your vintage Russian tank facing Abram/Leopard and Challenger tanks.. then you would be wetting yourself...'
What you can provide is too little, too late. You can provide < 50 tanks. The US said Abrams will arrive in 2024 or 2025. Russia has 14,000 tanks. By that time, Russia will end Ukraine. It is like your Himars. You said it will be a game changer. It was nothing of the sort. After the Himars, Russia destroyed the power grid, took Soledar and now Bakhmut is ready to fall.
Don't fool yourself. The war is lost for the west.
The saying about NATO is 'gros bouches, petits mains'. Big mouths, tiny fists. Your writing embodies that.
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@richardivonen3564 Countries have come and gone, borders have changed in due course. Parts of Ukraine were with Poland, Hungary and Romania, besides Russia. In all good faith, Russia gave Ukraine independence in 1991, and even gave away the Russian areas like Crimea, Donbass, south and Odessa. But from 2014, due to the American instigated coup and implanted government, Ukraine started misbehaving, it jettisoned the neutrality it promised in its independence declaration, and sought to join a military alliance against Russia, and started discriminating against Russian speakers. Hence, Russia decided to take back the Russian areas. If Ukraine continues to misbehave, the rest will go as well. The writing is on the wall. There is nothing inviolable about countries. They exist, they disappear, depending on how well or badly they are governed. Ukraine has blown it by cosying up to America. America bribed and infiltrated Ukraine, and implanted a govt., but when the axe fell on Ukraine, they supported from outside.
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@louisekelly7274 These are false comparisons about economy and GDP of Australia and Russia. What matters is also what is the GDP. Russia can make satellites, launch them, they can make planes, hypersonic missiles, drones, metals, titanium.....Australia cannot make any of that, so just shutup.
Russia is self sufficient - has water, land, biggest wheat producer, has energy, minerals, everything.
If you have a lot of disposable cash, send it to Ukraine, the US and Europe have run out.
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What is the international order ? It is the western order - one set of rules for he west, control of financial institutions and international organisations, and another set of rules for the rest. Invade Iraq because the US has declared Iraq had WMDs (the US and UK can have WMDs because they use them responsibly).
Russia has ended the western international order. It is for good. And the rest of the world thanks Russia for it. Even China could not have done that.
China and Russia should continue and dismantle the western order. The key to this is de-dollarisation ; it will cut America's power. Europe is a dependent, so they will also perish. Why should not China demand more say in the World Bank and IMF ? Why has IMF broken its rules and bent over backwards to give loans to Ukraine ?
The Europeans strike a very conceited view of their importance. They think they are entitled to set the rules for the world. It is an extension of the British 'white man's burden'.
von Leyen announced that Ukraine is part of the 'European family' - which she thinks is some superior status. This China analyst Perkhun talks about defending the 'European soul'. What is the European soul ? Colonialism, slave trade, neo-colonialism, Nazism, waging wars.
Let us say the EU will monitor China's behaviour and make trade conditional, and let us say China decides it will not abide, so EU cuts trade with China, where will it then direct its trade and exports ? It has sanctioned Russia, it reduces trade with China, and it is dependent on costly energy from the US. The Europeans should import costly energy from ally US and trade between themselves.
Europeans need to face the reality. Europe has no energy and materials. Europe's days of colonial bossing are over, so it cannot extract energy and minerals from Asia and Africa, for nothing. Europe's US-relationship will that be of a vassal - that is what the US demands always.
Europe needs to realise that its future lies with Russia and China and India and Asia. It needs to shake off its subservience to the US. The Europeans are committing economic suicide for US's desire for NATO expansion. NATO expansion is a desire of Lockheed and US arms companies. The US also is determined to prevent a large Eurasian trade network from which it will be left out. Its only hope is to keep Europe under its thumb; the US cannot keep Russia and China under its thumb.
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Britain has a confused sense of importance. The British elite like Johnson, Rees-Mogg etc. looked down on Europe, and always thought they were part of a superior Anglo Saxon club. But that only meant be a vassal state of the US.
At the same time, Britain has been more hawkish against Russia than the French and Germans. It wanted to show off to Europe it was a stauncher supporter and beneficiary of Ukraine. Its media portrays Macron and Scholz as surrender monkeys; it blames Germany for energy dependence on Russia. The British talk as if British military support to Ukraine could turn the tide against mighty Russia's onslaught. The British elite have resented Russia because after 1945, the Soviet Union emerged as a superpower, and Britain lost its colonies and faded as a superpower. The Defence Minister Ben Wallace said Britain would kick Russia's backside as it did in the Crimean war of the 1850s. He does not realise that Russia today is formidable compared with Britain.
Meanwhile, Russia's counter economic war has led to shortage of energy and high prices in Britain, like the rest of Europe.
It is odd that the volume of Britain's trade has fallen due to Brexit, it has not been compensated by any trade deal with the US or others, yet Britain goes out of its way to spend money on Ukraine and show it is superior to Europe on that front.
Among western nations, Britain has suffered a double whammy due to Brexit and its imprudent and strident anti-Russianism. The 'special relationship' with the US is imaginary and does not go beyond intelligence sharing. Britain has shared every neo-colonial adventure with the US, but gained nothing.
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@chas721 On the contrary, unlike the west and Ukrainians, Russians do not talk, they do things. They could not take Kiev, so they adjust their operations and concentrate forces on the East and drive the front forward. They have taken the industrial belt, and the coastal areas, and they are strangling the Ukranian economy with the blockade. What Lavrov is saying is they have the upper hand, Russia now sees no need for a cease fire and negotiations, as they can advance and take more. Once they have finished Krematorsk and Slaviansk, they will push forward.
The 1994 Budapest Memorandum says the signatories (US, UK and Russia) will refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence. Russia's security was threatened by the unforeseen circumstance of Ukraine conspiring with the other two signatories (US and UK) to join NATO, a military alliance that is hostile to Russia. Thereby according to the Budapest Memorandum, Russia is entitled to take military action against Ukraine. Russia has said its aim is to de-Nazify and demilitarise Ukraine. If Ukraine does not conform to the requirements of the Budapest Memorandum as well as the terms of neutrality by which Russia gave it independence, then it will be destroyed and annexed by Russia. Ukrainians have proved to be back stabbers, and so are not fit for nationhood.
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@DSan-kl2yc Budapest Memorandum says armed force will not be used against Ukraine - unless it threatens the security of Russia. The last Article of the Budapest Memorandum says that in the case of a dispute, all parties will seek to meet and negotiate. In Dec. 2022, Putin sent a letter to Biden asking for negotiations and a treaty to guarantee to Russia's security (that is, the US will not use Ukraine to threaten Russia with NATO bases). The US refused. Ukraine kept quiet on returning to neutrality, as it believed with US help, it could defeat Russia. Thus, Ukraine, UK and US violated the Memorandum by refusing to negotiate.
Thereafter Ukraine got a beating, and has lost land and has been turned into a wasteland. Ukraine is not in a position to reverse it. The Ukraine of 2014, let alone 1991, is not returning.
A country's sovereignty is not absolute, it can depend on history and geopolitical context. Ukrainian independence was given under two understandings (1) that Ukraine would give up the nukes and (2) agree to be neutral and not join any anti-Russian military military alliance. Otherwise Ukraine would not have got independence.
Ukraine is unable to reverse the first condition (nukes), but it thought it could renege on the second (neutrality). Ukraine is foolish and does not have the skills to be an independent country. It is a failed state. That is the reality.
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@DSan-kl2yc Indeed, the US defence is industry is like the US healthcare, purely driven by profit. The US defence industry gouges the American taxpayer, through the US politicians and govt. and overcharges for its products because it is a monopoly or a cartel. The US govt. in turn tries to turn it into a net benefit for the US to offset the wealth taken from the tax payer. Of this 65 billion, they have said much will be used in the US and it will employ Americans. The way to do that is wage wars on other countries to extract their wealth, enforce the use of the dollar - like Iraq, Libya etc.. That may work if the attacked country is weak and is overtaken.
In the current case, they have taken on someone who is not weak, who makes weapons and has greater expertise in combined arms warfare and land wars, and someone who is even capable of initiating a global change in creating alternatives to trade in dollars. In the Ukraine war, the US may look at the profit-loss account and still believe it is in its favour. It displaced Russian gas from Europe and replaced it with US LNG which is 4x the price. It can argue that it got further NATO expansion by adding Sweden and Finland, so more arms purchases from these countries; and frightened countries like Poland etc. buying Patriots etc.
However, there are losses as well. Ukraine is the biggest loser. It did not make any money. It has at least $ 500-1000 billion worth of damages and it will not exist as a country. The second loser is Europe - it has to pay 4x for energy, and spend more on defence. Countries like Germany which have high labour cost cannot afford the energy and be competitive, and hence industries are relocating outside. The US may have gained in terms of its oil and gas industry getting a captive market in Europe and also contracts for Lockheed; but it has lost the non-western world's confidence in the dollar, so you will see a gradual shift to non-dollar transactions. Countries not in the west are fearful of the US seizing its assets. The US ability to finance massive debt and live beyond its means was based on demand for the dollar, which allowed them to print it as they thought demand will always be there whatever the debt. So the US is a strategic loser, but they do not realise it.
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@mkailov13 'Ukraine will never run out of supplies due to western support. '
The western tanks will take months and it is a hotch potch collection of under 100. Russia has 15,000 tanks. What is western support ? They said Himars will be game changers and Ukraine will get back Crimea. Now the west cannot even supply artillery. Now that NATO has been exposed as not having the teeth, Russia will move in for the kill.
'A country of 145 million determined people will not have manpower problems in modern wars. '
Indeed Russia is a country of 145 million determined people and will not have manpower problems compared with Ukraine which has 40 million people, half of them in exile, and a country whose production and economy is decimated. So you yourself say Russia the country of 145 million will prevail.
'The simple fact is that this war pits the economies of the United States and NATO countries against the economy of Russia. Gee, I wonder which one can sustain this longer. '
Well, Biden said the rouble will be rubble. The rouble is there, and the euro and pound lost 20% of their value. Russia has de-industrialised Europe. Russia has accelerated de-dollarisation of the world economy and that is a killer of the US economy. Russia has production, so does China, the US does not have much production. So there is no place to be smug.
Whatever stand you take has to be evidence-based. All your claims are unsupported, and in one case, you are supporting what I am saying ! The superpower with a population of 145 million will clobber a country with 40 million, which is reliant on aid from countries that are too cowardly to send troops.
What are you ? A typical dumb American ?
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Ukraine was never a free country after the 2014 coup, the US decided its foreign policy, and everything done since then was at the expense of Ukraine. The US decides whether Ukraine should fight or give up. In 2022, when Ukraine negotiated with Russia in Turkey and reached a deal, Biden sent BoJo to scupper it. At that stage, the US and UK believed Ukraine could defeat Russia with their assistance.
After the failed counter offensive in 2023 and the setbacks in 2024, the US does not believe Ukraine can win, and the costs outweigh any benefit. So Ukraine will be ordered to do a deal. And Ukraine has no choice but to agree. Kellogg, Trump's appointee to end the war has already told Ukraine it has to negotiate, if it declines it will be on its own. Hence, Zelensky is now talking about negotiations with absurd caveats, although he was talking about a Victory Plan earlier. His victory plan is to cede land and win it back with diplomacy. He could have used diplomacy to avert the war in the first place, but the US would not allow him.
When the time comes and US changes direction, Zelensky will agree to what the US says....So why does DW ask whether the deal with Putin is at the Expense of Ukraine ? It will be - but Ukraine signed up for it when Ukraine fell in love with the US and NATO.
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@GlennRA3 Even if what you are saying is true, and China is the world's largest wheat importer, Russia is the biggest producer and therefore perfectly set up to supply China. It is doubly beneficial for China as it will get the wheat a little cheaper, and Russia will accept payment in yuan. The Russians are using the yuan to import Chinese cars and car parts. The European and US car manufactures left Russia leaving behind the Russian market. Competitors move in to fill the vacuum. I have read the Chinese are filling in the gap. Wheat supply will be like the energy arrangement between Russia and China. Hence, it is a win-win situation for China, and again drives trade in non-dollars and promotes the Chinese currency. Why would China chide Russia ?
On the other hand, Ukraine and Europe are the losers - just like in the energy battle. Ukraine has lost about $ 500 million in revenue. Europe has to buy wheat at high international prices, as with gas. It increases their food inflation. Ukraine now needs additional $ 500 million from the west to cover their spending budget. The west cannot admit failure of its economic war, so it denounces Russia and cries like crocodiles for Africa, and hopes China will provide relief, as it cannot ask Russia for help, having burnt its bridges.
Europe is the biggest victim of its economic warfare against Russia. False pride does not allow to admit this. Sanctions backfired.
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This episode shows how weak NATO is, despite their vain bluster. NATO cannot take a decision quickly. NATO is subverted by US interests, which over ride Europe's.
The US is asking Germany, the leading European economic power, to over ride its livelihood for US ambitions against Russia. Sure the US has the support of the most useless countries in Europe(Lithuania, Poland etc.), but the principal countries have to be carried as well. The useless countries shout the most against Russia, but when the beating comes, they will be the most helpless.
There is no way NATO can fight and defeat Russia. NATO simply will not be able to take a decision. We have heard of western media boasting about Article 5 as something that will frighten Russia. To invoke Article 5 will take several meetings, and there will be disagreements. Article 5 does not compulsorily say all members have to fight; all it says is that members may react as they say fit, including and up to fighting. Germany does not want to fight. Estonia etc. want to fight but really there is not much they can do against mighty Russia. The UK is an island that blabbers a lot but will find it difficult to cross the sea; they cannot send ambulances within 2 hours in their island. Turkey will not fight for Europeans. Article 5 does not compel members to fight, and if the US opted not to fight (and Americans don't want to die), then the rest of NATO will not stand a chance against Russia.
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@bigg2988 Well, the Ukranians and all the EU thought it was bluff when Russia said it will take military technical action if NATO did not guarantee Russia's security and keep Ukraine neutral. But you know the reality : Putin declares what he will do, and he does it. Once the Russians decide to fight, they fight very hard and do not back down.
If your false pride and arrogance did not get in the way, you would have agreed to give the security guarantee, and Ukraine will be free today, and not beaten to pulp.
Who told you about "missiles that can destroy the area of Britain, etc." have been called as bluff ? I am referring to the Sarmat missiles. Would you like to invite Russia and ask them to test it for you ? If it is bluff, why did NATO not put a 'no fly zone' ? Why is Biden saying his howitzers will not have the range to hit Russia ?
Even after Ukraine is beaten to pulp, and the EU economy is ravaged with more to come, you think it is bluff ? People are coming out on the streets in Europe to protest rising prices. Are they also bluffing ?
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As if Finland is a consequential country..... There are many more important countries than Finland who have sided with Russia.
The west is looking for crumbs of comfort, praising useless and unknown countries like Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Poland etc.... This is because the reality is Ukraine's goose is cooked, and the war is lost for the west. Russia has got Ukraine by the scruff of the neck, it has taken 20% of the land that produces 90% of Ukraine's GDP, and it has strangled Ukraine economically with the blockade. Come this winter, the Russians will derail western economies.
The west and its comedian have shown excellence in show biz and winning the media war with its own public. That is why it talks about Finland's visa restrictions as if it is going to change the course in Ukraine. The west has shown singular geopolitical ineptness and lemming-like suicidal group think. Reversing course is difficult due to the loss of face and false pride.
The west and NATO are tall in rhetoric, but weak in substance. They imagine they are the world. They self-certify NATO as the greatest and most powerful military alliance in the world. But NATO was defeated in Afghanistan, and it does not have the guts to send troops to Ukraine.
Russia does not talk much, it does. Russia does not announce in advance where they plan to strike next, they keep the enemy guessing what their intentions are. The west will announce things in advance, and say 'we are preparing a round of sanctions to cut of Russian gas supply by December'. The west froze (stole) Russian euro and dollar deposits, and made it impossible for Russia to do transactions in these currencies. Russia has never said it is embargoing gas, it merely told these countries to pay in roubles - because euros and dollars have become worthless for them. Yet, the westerners say it is 'Putin's embargo and blackmail'. It is apparent that the Russians are far cleverer than the Europeans and they are geopolitically astute.
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@thegreatdane3627 Putin never said he will take Kiev in 3 days or 2 weeks. Gen. Milley said that. And you quote that and if you repeat the lie, it becomes truth for you.
The Russians never cite any finish date, or announce any plans. They have stated their general objective : (1) no NATO bases in Ukraine (2) demilitarisation of Ukraine and (3) de-Nazification of Bandera followers. The capture of the Russian areas of Ukraine was added as the war progressed.
Objective (1) is achieved. There will be no more NATO training camps in Ukraine, and no naval bases for the US. The US will have to fight a nuclear war for it, and it does not have the stomach for it.
Objective (2) is partially achieved; Odessa needs to be taken to complete this.
(3) and (4) are ongoing.
The 'western analysts' make up targets and dates. For example, they said Russia will launch strikes on the first anniversary because they like symbolism. There was no such operation. Another strike on the power grid came 3 weeks later. Russians strike as and when appropriate.
War is a dynamic thing. When Russia was stuck on Kiev, they withdrew and came back from the backside to take Donbass. They were endangered in Kherson, so they withdrew to the east bank without loss. Ukraine in contrast tried to hold on to Bakhmut unintelligently and got massacred.
Western analysts said Russia was planning an offensive in March (Russia never said anything). When it did not happen, so then started saying the Russians do not have the capability.
Western analysts said Russia ran out of ammo and was fighting with shovels with prison releases. They must have bayoneted the Ukranians in Bakhmut with shovels.
Ukraine and the west have announced a spring offensive, they have announced Leopard tanks, so Russia has prepared for them. Bring them on, mighty Russia will slaughter the Bandera army till they have nothing to fight with !
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Talking about 'military superiority' for Ukraine before crossing the first Russian defence line after 4 weeks, is a pathetic, wishful thinking that DW is peddling. The same was claimed after delivery of Himars, after delivery of Leopards and Challengers, after the cluster bombs....
Abrams is the next great western hope. But they will go up in flames the moment they come into the open. Ukraine does not have the capacity for combined arms warfare, its supply line extends essentially to the US, its manpower has been massacred. So how can it have military superiority ?
Russia will not lose Crimea. Ukraine will have to breach the three defence lines, enter Crimea and hold it. That is impossible. They have not crossed the first line although they have been saying for a month they have taken Robtyne. There was no follow up and it has disappeared off the news. Russia has told Blinken that a tactical nuclear weapon will be used on Kiev if it captures Crimea. Since Ukraine is unable to breach the Russian defence lines, that will not be needed.
DW needs to be realistic. There have been too many false dawns that it propagated like the rest of the western media. The war is lost for the west. Russia is more powerful than the collective west, it withstood the economic and military warfare of the west. That is hard for the west to accept as it believes in its superiority. The west now has nothing left in the war chest. It cannot produce enough of the armaments needed and it does not have limitless money; and it does not want to send troops. Ukraine will resist but will lose.
The western media now talk about negotiating a frozen conflict but the Russians are not interested. The time for negotiations ended when Ukraine was pressurised by Biden's emissary, BoJo. Russia will be able to block Ukraine for another month till the muddy season sets in, kill more of the Bandera army in that period, and then it will rebuild. Russia will go on the offensive in 2024, take Odessa and will eventually destroy Zelensky and his odd cabal of Jews and Ukro Nazis. Like the Red Army finished Hitler and his German Nazis, the Russians know that can be the only solution now. Meanwhile, Russia knows 2024 is election year and the support is fading in the country that instigated the war. That country has voices asking to ditch Ukraine. The rest of NATO won't have a say when Ukraine is ditched; they will change their tune and blame Ukraine for not following NATO rules on breaching operations, and for corruption. The Poles have already changed. Slovakia is about to. DW will endorse the capitulation when it comes and host experts who will blame Ukraine entirely for American folly and wickedness.
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@sababugs1125 I suggest that you are writing contradictory nonsense out of false pride.
First you say the majority of these factories that shut down were hardly competitive. So let them close. Russia has done EU a service then.
Your next line says 'Also it's only a matter of time before new sources ensure those factories work again.' So you think they will reopen and become competitive again. There is no energy as cheap as piped Russian gas. Europe is trying to replace it with LNG. LNG costs 5x piped gas. So how will those factories which you declared as non-competitive reopen with higher energy costs ?
The factories don't have legs and aren't going to go anywhere. Yes, they will stay - as abandoned hulks. Experience has shown in the 1970s when aluminium factories were shut in Japan due to high energy costs, they were never re-opened again. The companies rack up big costs and debts and that kills them for good.
Hence, Europe will close steel, aluminium, carbon fibres, cement and all energy intensive products and import them from more competitive places - which will be the places you hate such as China, India, and even Russia (backdoor channels will be arranged). But Europe will have to produce something to import these. What will be those ? Europe is not strong in IT and software. There is no Silicon Valley.
No, my fellow, Putin is going to de-industrialise Europe and you do not have the intellect to understand it because of your emotions.
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@treygarver7791 The west also implanted a govt. in Afghanistan and spent 20 years funding them to stay in place. But one day, America decided it could not afford it, and walked away without informing its European subordinates. Zelenksy is the result of the US implant in 2014, and he embarked on a suicidal collision course with Russia, thinking he will have US protection. Afghanistan fighters or their supporters could only inflict a few terrorist strikes in the west; there was a cost for the west to defend against that, but essentially they were pinpricks, and the west could afford to support the implanted Afghan govt. for 20 years. Afghanistan was not capable of inflicting economic warfare against the west.
However, the difference now is Russia is capable of hammering Ukraine militarily while fending off NATO sending troops by dangling the nuclear sword; and it is capable of doing severe economic warfare by cutting off gas supplies and driving up the price. As Gazprom CEO said, commodities (especially energy and food) are more valuable than paper money. You can have all the euros, but it is no use if you cannot buy energy.
There is another aspect to Russia's economic warfare. They are driving (along with China) the creation of non-dollar trade between other countries. Oil is being traded in yuan, and between India and Russia, in rupees and roubles. This will diminish the dollar's value in the long run.
The Soviet Union had the capability for military warfare, but not economic warfare. Russia has capability of both; they understand the capitalist and international economy and know how to play the economic warfare game that the west has always played.
Hence, don't fool yourself. Come this winter, the west will be rethinking on affordability of funding Ukraine.
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@markwilson1096 'So what you are saying is NATO is weak for not wanting to start the next world-wide conflict? '
No, I said NATO is inherently weak, as it is an unwieldy organisation of feeble European states, and dominated by a superpower living across the Atlantic which now uses NATO not to protect Europe in Europe's interest, but to advance its military and economic interests.
Rumsfeld said at the end of the Cold Europe, there is Old Europe and the New Europe. Old Europe is France and Germany, Rumsfeld felt they were obstacles to US interests. By new Europe, he meant Poland, Estonia etc. which would be susceptible to US money, and which could be rekitted with US arms. The US is a predatory ally within NATO, which controls NATO and uses it for itself. The others have to send troops to Afghanistan to fight a US war. In Europe, the US will not sent troops to fight a European war - as you can see in Ukraine.
NATO is as bureaucratic as the EU, it cannot take a quick decision in any war. Article 5 is vague and dubious. In an attack on a NATO state, it is left to each member to decide what contribution to make; there is no commitment that all members have to send fighting forces. The command and control is with the US, and the US is not willing to fight in Europe. Long ago Kissinger said the US will not fight a nuclear war with the Soviet Union to save Germany and Europe. Then NATO's purpose is illusory. If the US walks out of NATO under Trump, that is the end.
'Russia is doing everything in its power to disrupt and divide nato because they know they’re involvement means their demise'.
You are stating the obvious. Why should they not ? NATO went to harass and confine Russia, but Russia ended plans for NATO bases in Ukraine.
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@eddastrohmayer251 The whole British establishment, whether Conservative or Labour, is bitterly anti-Russian, to the point they are delusional. The media is also united with them. Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Ben Wallace; Starmer all hold the same view on Russia. Boris Johnson said Russia should not be allowed to win, because that 'would be the end of western hegemony'.
They are delusional because they know Britain cannot fight Russia, but they just hope the US will do the heavy lifting under British guidance. The British have a craving for a Churchillian moment where the world will notice Britain, that it guided the US to battle against evil. They wanted to give the first battle tanks, the paltry Challenger, thereby claiming they crossed a red line, and they want to do the same with the Storm Shadow. Some months back when Trump's position on Ukraine became clear, the Daily Telegraph wrote an article saying if the US cannot lead Europe, Britain should. The same people look down on Europe and championed Brexit and boasted about 'taking back control from the EU', but they have delusions they can lead Europe in a fight against Russia.
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@dice3809 German reunification, and dissolution of Warsaw Pact, and freeing Baltics and Ukraine was done by the Soviet Union. They could have stopped it. But you thought it was one way, you were sneaky. Now, you have to pay the consequences. Russia has decided enough is enough, anyone who messes with Russia, be it NATO, Baltics, US etc. will be mauled. It is very clear, so no need to argue.
Keep your NATO, but don't cross the limit set by Russia. When Putin said you will face consequences you never faced (if you tried to put a no-fly zone), NATO understood and meekly withdrew. You don't want to be at the end of a Sarmat missile.
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@csh5414 Does not matter whether you think mines destroyed those useless western tanks, they are all part of war. Drones and helicopter gunships also destroyed them. Ukranians are saying their offensive cannot proceed without air cover. Why do you think Ukrainians are begging for air support if it was just mines ?
It is 4 months now and you cannot maintain the counter offensive is succeeding. A breaching operation is meant to be done in a few days, followed by a blitzkrieg. And afterwards, Ukranians would need to hold the land. It is 4 months and they have not breached the first line of defence; they claim to have breached near Robotyne, but since there is no follow up with tanks etc., it is clear those were lies.
If you want to know what is a breaching operation through minefields and fortifications, read up about the Red Army's celebrated Operation Bagration, where they stormed through German minefields and fortifications after months of preparation. Once breached, the Red Army was like tsunami, they went through Poland and to Berlin. The Ukranians were in the Red Army once, they should know. Ukraine's counter offensive is hardly an Operation Bagration. It is an Operation 'Fooling Around'.
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@Crashed131963 'I do not think any country thinks Russia is a conventional military superpower with their performance in the last 10 months.'
Russia is fighting a conventional war not just against Ukraine, but against the US and NATO. In that light, Russia has done remarkably well, it has taken 4 oblasts, made Ukraine landlocked, warded of NATO from entering Ukraine by dangling the nuclear sword on your heads. It has made sure that the US cannot have NATO bases ever in Ukraine; that was its principal objective.
Moreover the west waged an economic war on Russia, but Russia waged a counter economic war effectively, it is in the process of crippling Europe by de-industrialisation, and by speeding up de-dollarisation, it has served a long term blow to the US economy. Effectively, Russia has ended the western 'world order' for good. Only Russia could do this. Throughout history, Russia has been exceptional.
When you look at US wars, it fought against Iraq. Afghanistan etc. Iraq did not have any supplies from a superpower like Russia or China. If those countries had been given weapons as Ukraine, they would have inflicted heavier casualties on the US.
The proof of the US being a superpower would have been if it had sent troops to Ukraine. After all, the US staged a coup in 2014 and their implanted govt. is in place. But the US dared not send troops to Ukraine to save its implant. Why ?
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@jannekiljunen6784 In history, Russia has been attacked by European powers like Germany, France, Poland-Lithuania, Sweden, and since 1945, the US + NATO continuously threatens it. There can be no European security without Russian security. Russia has put its foot down on NATO expansion, and they will break and destroy any country that threatens its security. That is the bottom line. Ukraine played a dangerous anti-Russian game using the US, as a result, its independence has come to an end. The Ukraine of 1991 is not returning. Lithuania also tried to blockade Kaliningrad but after 3 weeks, after Russia threatened a beating, it climbed down and abandoned the blockade.
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@JamesC785 You have selected the bits you want and omitted the bits you don't want. Typical of a propagandist.
Article 2 of the Budapest memorandum says :
2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
It allows an exemption for Russia to attack Ukraine if it threatens its security (the statement 'except in self defence' allows that). There is an unforeseen circumstance. Ukraine gangs up with two of the three guarantors of Ukraine's security (US and UK) against the other signatory, Russia, seeking to enter a military alliance (NATO) which is anti-Russian. Ukraine, US and UK are therefore guilty of breach of the Memorandum.
The Memorandum is therefore now null void and Russia has taken corrective action to see that US cannot put missile and naval bases in Ukraine. Ukraine of 1992 will not exist, and corrective action can include a nuclear strike.
It also means in any future settlement between Ukraine and Russia, Russia will never again agree to US and UK being a guarantor of Ukraine. These countries have breached trust and cheated. Guarantors have to be maybe Turkey, China, possibly France and Germany.
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@Mr.Cerera69 Bush will tell you many things, you are foolish to do foolish things like bait Russia and believe when Russia gives you beating, US will come to your aid. Have you read Article 5 and understood ? It only says if any member is attacked, there will be a collective response and member countries may respond as they say fit, including and upto armed intervention. However it does not say there is a compulsion on armed intervention, and individual members are free to respond as they see fit. Thus, the US can opt out. Why would the US risk nuclear annihilation to save Lithuania ?
'President Bush speech in Lithuania where he said: By NATO Article 5 i announce that from now on whoever attacks Lithuania will attack United States of America and NATO alliance. These words made a tear in my eye thinking: Finnally after so many decades and centuries of occupatuon of russian empire, soviet union. russia is no longer a threat to us.'
Bush might have said it to induce tears in your eyes, but tomorrow it might be Trump and he does not give a damn about NATO. Remember Kissinger had said the US would not fight a nuclear war with the Soviet Union to save Germany and Europe. That would be the situation now also.
At the end of the day, you have to live next to Russia and if you misbehave, Russia will crush you, Article 5 notwithstanding. Lithuania was very foolish to try to blockade Kaliningrad. Russia can easily sieze the corridor and cut off the Baltics. Take it from me, the US will not fight a nuclear war to save Lithuania. In the end the EU realised and pressured Lithuania to back off. But Lithuanians appear to be as thick headed as Ukranians.
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@kpadalldotablet1009 What you are missing is that the west has always lived on 'might is right', so you should not be moralising. See your behaviour in Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine. I never heard your type shouting about their sovereignty, so why this sudden passionate defence for the sovereignty of Ukraine ? Your whole colonial past, subjugating the world, and justifying it, has been 'might is right'.
Even now you continue with freezing the money of others (Afghanistan, Russia, Iran). What is that other than 'might is right' ?
You fellows complain that Russia is blackmailing you with nuclear weapons. Who made nuclear weapons first and who used it first ? If you do not believe 'might is right', then set up an example and give them up, and persuade Russia and others to give them up.
Sovereignty does not include the right for Ukraine to conspire with US to give missile and naval bases to threaten Russia. That is also the practice of might is right.
There is no absolute sovereignty. That is a totem pole invented by the west - when it suits them.
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Very interesting effort to boost morale with tales of drone hunters. But it does not change the reality. Ukraine is on the back foot, the great bear is on the march, it is prowling around Chasov Yar, seeing that, the US has abandoned Ukraine, and the hyena hordes of Europe are afraid they will be clawed by the bear if they intervene.
Trump said yesterday, he will settle the issue, and ask Ukraine to give up Crimea and 4 oblasts. But even that will not satisfy Russia now. There have to be punitive reparations that Ukraine has to pay, and it needs to return to neutrality and be demilitarised. There will be no negotiations, no return to 2022 borders, let alone 1992 borders.
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The Ukrainian fellow at the end is pretty sour. He is not happy being asked in a doubtful tone 'how is the counter offensive going ?'
He knows the Ukrainian claims of capturing Crimea are just not credible. The perceptive knew Russia will prevail in the end. The Ukranians must be feeling they were let down in Vilnius when the US vetoed Ukraine's entry into NATO and refused to give a time map. The US was not going to be trapped into sending troops to save the wretched Ukrainians. They don't want to be killed by the Russians. Instead, they created a NATO-Ukraine council.
This unhappy fellow is going to find the US will ditch the Ukrainians, and the Danes, Finns, Germans and other Europeans are useless, and cannot save Ukraine from defeat.
If you read the western press (WP, NYT), there self-congratulatory articles saying that Russia got weakened without a single NATO soldier losing his life. For Americans clearly, Ukranians are cannon fodder. The articles also claim NATO has become stronger - because two chicken, Finland and Sweden, joined !
Maybe the reality has still not dawned on the Ukranians. They think the Americans and Europeans are 'our partners' and Ukraine is fighting to save European values. But maybe the unsupressed and helpless anger of the Ukranian towards the DW interviewer at the end shows it must have dawned on Ukrainians that they have been taken for a ride, and they have had a lot of people killed, and more to be killed, for America's games.
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Putin is very clear minded unlike western politicians. There is no point getting western analysts to analyse, because they will always pretend that west has the upper hand.
Putin is correct, the era of the unipolar world is over - US domination is unsustainable. The US cannot expand NATO to Ukraine and put its missiles there. That is surely incontestable.
The west also needs to understand that it had control of the international financial institutions - once. It was the west's trump card. But that is changing because the west undermined it by freezing Russia's money. The west had done this with Iran, Afghanistan etc. but got away with it, but Russia will not let it pass. Banking works on trust and the belief that you will get your money back. The west has undermined that and shot itself in the foot.
Putin has shown Russia has the military and economic power (and understanding of economics) to challenge the west. The west said the rouble will become rubble. But it is now the strongest performing currency. The CEO of Gazprom pointed out that commodities (especially energy) are more valuable than paper money. That is correct. Russia has the food and energy to heat its homes. The west will freeze and face power cuts this winter if it persists in its fight to expand NATO and threaten others. Its euros and dollars are no use if it cannot buy energy.
The most significant outcome of Putin is not what happens to Ukraine, but two key effects he has triggered : (1) the gradual spread of non-dollar transactions, and countries understanding the need to diversify their savings from the dollar; this will undermine the value of the dollar in the long term. This means the US cannot have a unipolar world which it imagined was possible forever, after the end of the Soviet Union (2) the shift from a euro-centric world to a non-euro centric world where Russia and China will be major players, with more countries aligning with them.
The necons in America like Wolfowitz said after the US victory in the cold war, the US will not allow another challenger to rise ever again. Fukuyama wrote about the end of history. Huntingdon wrote the clash of civilisations, in which the west will always prevail. Putin has ended that. 30 years later since these Americans made their exultant projections for a unipolar world dominated by the US and its subordinates in Europe, there are two countries now that have the military AND economic power to challenge the west. And the west is not going to win against them. Europe is a collection of weak states. The US is in decline after two wars that sapped it. It has little manufacturing.
It is not the end of the west - but it is the end of a unipolar world dominated by the west. That is for the better. Russia as usual has played a seminal role in bringing a big change.
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You are ignorant. Ukraine had nuclear power stations, tank factories, steel mills, aircraft factories, it produced good aero engines - it was all due to the Soviet Union, of which the major constituent was Russia.
You imagine it is better Ukraine is 'destroyed but FREE cause one day Ukraine can have its Economy fixed without Russian interference.'
It is good you understand Ukraine is being destroyed. The rest is wishful thinking. Russia will destroy Ukraine and make sure it cannot be rebuilt and the west will not be allowed to set foot there again. Ukraine will be returned to an agricultural state as it was before it joined the Soviet Union. It will have no factories, no electricity, no armaments.....
Russia fought this war to prevent NATO expansion and western interference, do you think Russia will hand Ukraine back for western interference again ? Ukraine lives next to Russia, so Russia will have a say.
In any negotiated settlement, Russia will demand there are no NATO bases in Ukraine. Otherwise, it will indefinitely keep hitting various cities randomly, and no westerner will go there as they don't want to get killed.
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@maryanchabursky9148 You talk like Zelensky : a beggar who claims Ukraine is winning.
Ukraine's GDP is under 50% of what it was. You do not have electricity to run industry, so what are you talking about ? Donbass is where the Ukrainain industry is . If you say, there is industry in Kiev, Dnipro, Krivy Rih, Kharkiv, and Odessa, Russia can destroy that in due course.
If you continue misbehaving, Ukraine will be returned to an agricultural state. Whatever Ukraine has is due to the Soviet Union. You are an ingrate, that is why I favour Russia taking out all Ukrainian industry, arms industry etc.
'ruSSia started the war to annex Ukraine and end its existence, NATO and western intervention is a myth (and you know that).'
NATO expansion to Ukraine has been an American plan. Ukraine changed its constitution and made NATO entry an aim. If you wanted to avert the war, you could have reaffirmed neutrality in Dec 2021. But you thought you could be part of NATO and threaten Russia. Then Russia decided to annex parts of Ukraine to prevent NATO entry. So don't lie.
'If ruSSia keeps hitting Ukrainian cities they will start too run out of munitions capable of doing so and Ukraine will get more AA'.
In the first month, Zelensky said Russia would run out of missiles in 3 days. You are delusional. The missiles keep coming in. Russia is preparing the hypersonic Tsirkon for you. Let the ceasefire end. The west is running out of ammunitions.
'if ruSSia refuses to sign a ceasefire after Ukraine kicks them out of it's territory then Ukraine will go into ruSSia and destroy ruSSian installations. All this is already happening.'
You mean to say Ukraine will launch an Operation Barbarossa ? Then you will receive a nuclear strike on Kiev to force unconditional surrender.
Ukraine is a failed state. You should never have been given independence. You don't have the skills of statehood. Russia gave you independence in good faith, and you blew the opportunity.
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@DSan-kl2yc Independence is not absolute, it depends on history, size of the country and neighbours. Under Ukraine's historical circumstances, it had to commit to giving up nukes, agree to neutrality and allow the Russian navy to use Sevastopol. Ukraine reneged on the last two, and therefore its independence is curbed and its future depends on Russia.
'If Ukraine had give the US bases, Russia wouldn't have invaded.'
It is a pointless comment like saying if Ukraine had not given up its nukes (if Ukraine did not give it up, it would not have got independence).
Ukraine would have given naval bases to the US, that would have come if it joined NATO, and Russia was not going to wait to find out.
Ukraine should return to neutrality, or else Russia will continuing bombing it to a wasteland, maybe even hit with a nuke. Those are the only two options.
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@DSan-kl2yc If Ukraine had said it wanted to join NATO in 1991, it would not have got independence. Its Independence Declaration stated it would be a neutral state.
You have never read the Budapest Memorandum. It says the signatories will not attack Ukraine unless it posed a security threat to any of the signatories. Ukraine started posing a threat to Russia by seeking to join NATO. It conspired with two signatories, the US and UK, to threaten Russia by joining a military alliance of which the US and UK are members. That is against the spirit of the Memorandum. The last Article of the Memorandum says that should there be a dispute, the parties would sit together and negotiate. Russia asked for a meeting to negotiate a security agreement. The US declined, and Ukraine went along. Hence, all three signatories stabbed Russia in the back, and so that is the end of Ukrainian independence.
Russia will take the Russian areas, and the rest will be bombed into a wasteland and no one will be allowed to reconstruct. If the rump Ukraine is to be independent, there has to be closure of all armaments factories in Ukraine and no US bases. All that Ukraine has got is due to the Soviet Union - arms factories, aero engine factories, steel mills. These should be closed or confiscated. Ukraine should be returned to a pastoral state as it was before joining the Soviet Union. It needs to be deNazified and Azov Batallion and Bandera worship have to be stopped.
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When you look at all of NATO's claimed game changers, from switch blade drones to Stinger missiles and Himars, in the end they made little difference. Russia has taken the land that generated Ukraine's GDP, Russia controls the shipping lanes, they have destroyed the power grid, Ukraine has lost more than 100,000 soldiers, Russia is on the move, and after taking Soledar, they are after Bakhmut. As always, Russia has the nuclear strike to finish Kiev if needed. A few tanks will not make much difference, the Russians have the firepower to continue to batter Ukraine. Russia is not going to allow NATO bases in Ukraine.
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@Ra-ox1cm 'The Russian Economy is the size of spain. '
That is a one dimensional story designed to make you feel better. It depends what is in the GDP. Russia makes metal alloys, titanium, it is the biggest wheat producer, it launches satellites and space stations, it can knock out satellites, it has the best hypersonic weapons, it is the key player in the nuclear energy industry, and it is also a leading oil and gas supplier, it is also is a gold producer. Can Spain produce any of these things ? The whole western world could not produce 150 mm shells to match Russia.
'Outside of Ressources russia is economically irrelevant.'
Russia's gas fired Germany and Europe's industry. Now Europe and Germany face de-industrialisation. High wages, high energy, so BASF is shutting plants and moving to China.
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@stada Your interpretation is highly immature - Russia has lower GDP than Italy etc.
It matters what is in that GDP. Russia is self sufficient - it has land, water, food (biggest wheat producer), it makes metals, it has nuclear power, it has energy (a big asset), it launches satellites, it has its own GPS, its industry is not outsourced, and it has the military power to vapourise any enemy including the US.
It is because Russia is self sufficient, it could not be brought down by sanctions. It is in many ways unique. Instead, Europe is being de-industrialised by the sanctions. You understand, dimwit ?
Italy whom you cite and all the other weaklings of Europe are dependent, vassal states. It needs energy and security from others.
So GDP alone is a very shallow measure.
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@wokeaf1337 I asked why does not NATO send its armies to defend Ukraine ?
NATO has been training Ukraine and encouraging Ukraine to join NATO. Russia said 'no, we shall not allow Ukraine in NATO, you have crossed is a red line, you are using Ukraine to put missiles and threaten Russia'. Russia asked for a security guarantee, which NATO refused. Then Russia took technical military measures it said it would take if a security guarantee was not given. It did what it said it would do, it gave Ukraine a thorough thrashing. The question is when it was NATO that pushed Ukraine into seeking NATO entry, and Ukraine is being smashed for it, and considering how everyone in the west is combusting in outrage, why does NATO not do the honourable thing and enter Ukraine and stop Russia ?
You have given a weak and evasive answer to cover NATO cowardice. Your answer was 'Because they dont want to start a war, RuZZia needs to declare war on Nato for that to happen'.
The reason NATO has not entered Ukraine is not because NATO does not want to start a war, it is because NATO fears if it starts a war, NATO also will get a beating from Russia. If for one moment, NATO thought it could win, it would have sent troops to Ukraine. Putin has invited NATO to come to the battlefield and see if it can win.
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@quantuman100 Kherson shows the difference between the Russians and the Ukrainians, and why the Russians will prevail. They saw the west bank of Kherson was vulnerable, so they withdrew without losing people. And they stayed in the east bank, let the Ukranians come in and then started shelling them, so Kherson is not very usable. By that strategic withdrawal, they took out the sting from the Kherson offensive and it petered out. Before the west was saying with Himars, with the Kherson offensive, Ukraine would trap the Russians and severe it from Crimea. And Zelensky said he would take Crimea by Dec 2022. He said no town will fall after Severodonetsk. But the Russians destroyed the power grid and Soledar fell.
The Ukrainians in contrast are holding on to Bakhmut and getting massacred, so much so the US is asking them to withdraw, so they have troops left. The dilemma for the Ukrainians is if they withdraw, they are afraid it will open the storm gate for the Russians. If they stay in Bakhmut, they get massacred. Avedivka is in a similar plight.
The spring offensive that the west is touting for Ukraine is the last throw of the die for the west. Russia has fortified its lines, they will sit it out, and they know after that Ukraine will run out of steam. Then the west will be forced to scale back the support of Ukraine.
Overall, Ukraine is devastated. And Russia will continue to hammer Ukraine till it agrees to stay neutral. The west cannot change that.
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Don't miscalculate. Years back, Putin warned in the Munich security conference that NATO expansion would lead to war. The US did not listen, it got away with six waves of NATO expansion - till it came to Ukraine. When Russia collected troops on the Ukrainian border in Dec. 2021, the west thought Putin was bluffing. But now they know - Russia rendered Ukraine into a failed state, Ukraine cannot join NATO and the Ukraine of 1991 will not exist, and there is nothing the west can do about it. The west escalated as each of its steps did not work - Javelins, HIMARS, Bradleys, tanks, cluster munitions, F16s.....
If Ukraine is given missiles to hit Russia, then Russia will escalate. It maybe Ukraine's missiles can still only do pinpricks, and Russia can respond with a higher volume of conventional strikes. If that does not work, then a stage will come when Russia will have no choice but to reach out for the nuclear strike. I would imagine a strike on a Ukrainian city on Poland's border like Lvov would be exemplary and send a signal on what happens if you cross red lines. No NATO country can do anything after Ukraine is hit with a nuclear strike. They would not want their own cities incinerated. Hence, don't fool yourself. Russia did not use a nuclear strike after the Kursk incursion. That does not mean Russia is bluffing or will not retaliate. Russia believes it can get back Kursk without a nuclear strike. But if Russia thought that Kursk cannot be recovered by conventional means, it will use a nuclear strike.
Russia can also select non-nuclear options for retaliating against the west. They could give similar missiles to Houthi and other groups who are fighting America and enable them to strike at western ships and bases in the ME. It could cut internet cables.
Hence, don't fool yourself - Russia can and will damage the west.
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After all the claims that NATO is the most powerful and richest military alliance in the world, it is absolute cowardice not to take up Sir Putin's gentlemanly invitation for a duel. He has said no civilians will be targeted, he will give one hour's notice before Miss Hazel arrives, and the test will be on the neutral ground of Ukraine. The west has no chance of stopping Miss Hazel, but even so, the challenge must be accepted.
In Pushkin's time, people regarded it as a matter of honour not to refuse a duel. But nowadays in the west, there is no concept of honour, and cowardice and duplicity reign. The US incited Ukraine to war against Russia and the EU fell in line, and when their plans went awry, they decided to distance themselves from Ukraine and seek negotiations ! This is a very shameful episode of opportunism and cowardice in western history.
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@yasminesteinbauer8565 The blame game against Germany is done by Poland, Baltics, US and UK. Germany is accused of not being sufficiently militarised. Once Germany was once the bane of Europe and restrictions were put on German militarisation. Hence, it is unfair and opportunistic for those who put curbs on German militarisation to blame Germany for not having military production. Germany learned from its history, and it does not want to have a war with Russia or a war in Europe. Germany did nothing wrong in developing economic relations with Russia. It was beneficial for all - Russia, Germany, and all of Europe. That is not in the US interest. The US is facing challenges from China, India, Russia, the ME and others against its hegemony. Only Europe is under its belt culturally. But even Europe was economically drifting away from the US and becoming part of a giant Eurasian economy which connected Europe, Russia, China and India, leaving out the US.
As some of the European public now suspects US motives on Nordstream and Ukraine, and there is some public opposition growing in Europe to NATO, the US felt the need to deflect suspicion of NATO and US. Put the blame on Ukraine, they have a plausible motive. The problem is everyone doubts they have the technical capacity to blow up Nordstream.
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@nintendokings Have you read the Budapest agreement whose signatories were Russia, US and the UK ? Did you understand it ? Read before you come with disinformation.
Article 2 says weapons can be used against Ukraine in self defence, that is if it threatens the security of the other signatories. Ukraine is not going to threaten US and UK, but it has played the game of allying with US and UK to threaten the security of Russia. Hence, Russia is entitled to take action against Ukraine in self defence, including and up to cancelling Ukraine's independence.
2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
Article 6.The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments.
As per article 6, Russia wrote to the US for a security guarantee to the US on 17 Dec. 2021 that US weapons will not be placed in Ukraine threatening Russia. The US refused to agree.
We have an unexpected problem that Ukraine lined up with two of its guarantors to threaten Russia. So end of the Budapest Memorandum.
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@jasonasdecker Ukraine's declaration of independence said it would be a neutral state which would not join any military alliance. Without that commitment, Russia would not have given Ukraine independence.
You are phrasing the Budapest Memorandum to suit your perspective 'Ukraine also promised to give up their nuclear weapons if Russia would respect their territory and UK and the USA promised to defend them if they gave up their nuclear weapons (this treaty was called The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances)'.
This is what article 2 says
2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
It says weapons can be used against Ukraine in self defence - which is what Russia has done. Now you may say Ukraine has not invaded Russia. However, an unexpected and perhaps unforseen situation was created when Ukraine sought to use the two other signatories to threaten Russia through the NATO military alliance. This act of conspiring with NATO powers when considered in light of Russia agreeing to Ukraine's independence according to the neutrality as pledged in Ukraine's declaration of independence, represents an insidious breach of trust and Russia has every right to take action. As far as Russia is concerned, Ukraine's independence is now null and void. Ukraine will be broken up and taken back into Russia. If the other two signatories want to defend Ukraine, Putin asked them to come to the battlefield in Ukraine. Why don't they go ?
Since Ukraine did not respect in spirit the conditions for its independence and embarked instead on the course of Russophobia and Nazism, and conspired with Russia's enemies, Russia is going to demolish them.
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@cyberfunk3793 Russia withdrew from the western side of Kherson to avoid being encircled. They did not lose soldiers nor were the Ukranians able to engage in hot pursuit across the river. The Ukranians moved into western side of Kherson and Russians shelled them and killed them from across the river.
Contrast with the Ukranians. They are being threatened with encirclement in Bakhmut but they decided to stay. The dilemma for them is if they stay, they will be massacred (which is what is happening) and if they withdraw, they fear the Russians will be in hot pursuit and come after Kramaotorsk and Sloviansk.
Now they Russians have taken time out to fortify the entire line so the chances of Ukraine penetrating again are not there. What the Ukranians managed in the first year they cannot repeat because their best soldiers have been killed, and they are short of shells and the west cannot supply them. The longer it lasts, the advantage tilts to Russia
Russia's economy does not work the same as western economy. They sell energy, wheat, metals steel uranium, gold ... that people need, not financial services. It is the biggest resource economy. Unlike Germany and Europe they have the energy to run their industries. Further, they have not outsourced their manufacturing. So they can make shells and everything else.
Look around, it is people in UK, France, Germany who are on strike and not people in Russia. The euro and pound lost 20% and europe is importing LNG at 5x the price, and they have to pay in dollars.
You are repeating western cliches and wishful thinking.
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@cooldued5308 Putin never claimed Ukraine will fall in 3 days. He is far too shrewd to say that. Western media made out that Putin thought it could be taken in 3 days.
Russia never announces what it is going to do in advance. It keeps you guessing. It does it, and then you know.
Europeans are announcing sanctions in advance. Russia has never said it is using gas as a weapon, or it is sanctioning Europe. Putin just says, 'pay in roubles, we shall supply you'.
Putin never said he will use nuclear weapons. He told the west it will faces consequences you have never faced before, if the west put a new fly zone. The west interpreted that he would nuke them !
Now the western media says that Russia is amassing troops in Byelorussia. Will it go for Kiev again ? No one knows.
The west announces all kinds of dumb things in advance - Ukraine reconstruction conference when how much of Ukraine will be independent is not known; it declares Ukraine will be in EU. Likewise, Ukraine announces summer offensive but there is not much to show. Ukraine announces it is applying to join NATO.
Putin is far cleverer and astute than any western politician. You study his speeches and you hear a man who has knowledge. The Americans were saying they will put a price cap on Russian oil. He responded by citing US economist Milton Friedman - if you say the price of tomatoes is high, and the govt. will put a cap on its price, next day there will be a shortage of tomatoes and the price will rocket.
Western politicians do not have the same mental alacrity. They are intellectually lazy and lethargic, vain and conceited, just like their public. When BoJo joked at a G7 summit that they should strip to their shirts to show they are macho like Putin, Putin joked back and told BoJo to be macho like him, first BoJo has to do some exercise, do work and party less !
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@olafsigursons Ukraine is more integrated into NATO now than it was before the war ? Really ? Ukraine is not in the form it was in 1992, it has become a lesser Ukraine, having lost the 20% land that generated 90% of its GDP, its ports are seized, and the remaining part is forced into a landlocked state. Even the part that is left at the moment requires 1 trillion to reconstruct, and anyway it cannot be reconstructed without Russian permission. Russia will only allow Ukraine to reconstruct if it accepts neutrality and keeps NATO out; otherwise, Russia will keep striking with missiles here, there and everywhere, and no one will come for reconstruction.
When there is a settlement, Ukraine will have to accept neutrality, and Russia is not going to allow the US and UK to be mediator or guarantor of Ukraine again, as it did in the Budapest Memorandum. The US and UK were sneaky and conspired with Ukraine to get bases there, to threaten Russia.
So how has Ukraine's integration with NATO helped when Ukraine of 1992 has partly disappeared and the bit that exists will not be allowed any normality ? All this has happened due to NATO. Y
Finland joining NATO is of little relevance. First of all, Turkey's parliament has to approve. Secondly, Finland is a weakling. Thirdly, Russia can destroy Finland with a single Sarmat missile. Ukraine getting into NATO is more serious for Russia as the US can have naval bases there. Russia will nuke Ukraine rather than let that happen. Russia is a mighty country, and if you fight it, you will get mauled. I suggest you learn from Ukraine's stupidity and not mess with Russia. Lithuania also thought it could blockade Kaliningrad with NATO backing, but quietly dropped out when Russia threatened a beating.
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@Omega0850 You citing wishful thinking.
'Ukraine will get plenty of economic aid from the west, after the war, plus a lot of investment'.
Just like Iraq and Afghanistan ? The west is being deindustrialised, you don't have money for yourself, what will you give the Ukranian beggar ?
You talk as if the end of the war and the post war settlement will be decided by the west. It will be decided by Russia. Unless Ukraine signs an agreement reaffirming neutrality and no NATO bases, there will be no end of the war. Russia can keep striking Ukraine and no western people will go there for reconstruction as they will be killed. So no point fantasising about rebuilding.
Basically, the west got Ukraine battered by encouraging NATO expansion, you cannot save Ukraine and you want to assuage your conscience by claiming you plan wondrous reconstruction, Ukraine will be in NATO etc. Nothing is possible without Russian permission.
Russia has stolen nothing, instead you stole $ 300 billion from Russia deposits in western banks. That is why the rest of the world is slowly gravitating towards non-dollar trade. They realise western banks and govt's are untrustworthy thieves.
'nobody will want to invest in Russia'. Again 'nobody' for you means the west; but China, India and others have no issues. Europe is becoming irrelevant, so it does not matter. Europe was dependent on Russian gas, and it was not the other way round. So what are you talking about ?
'And since Russia won´t make much money from its oil and gas reserves anymore, the Russian economy is basically doomed. '
Wishful thinking. Russia is pivoting its energy to China and India and Asia. That is where the economic growth is. Europe is shrinking. European companies like BASF are relocating to China. Europe, not Russia, is being de-industrialised. Get real !
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@MKSense1 The US approach to Ukraine is also based on Return on Investment. They pushed Ukraine to make an ill prepared counter offensive in 2023, it was driven by timeline rather than assessment of possibility of success. Ukraine had to do it by mid year, or the US would have cut aid. The Russians waited and Ukraine's army got decimated, after that the Russians came out. Now to save Ukraine, $ 60 billion is being sent of which 50 billion is for US companies. At the end of the year, Ukraine will be stuck and will need more. Then the Return on Investment will be seen as poor, and money supply will be cut. This is what Ukraine does not understand. Or perhaps Ukrainians are starting to understand, as they are refusing to join the army.
'Many times they buy the competitions ideas or patents as they have more capital. '
They often buy out patents to block the competition rather than develop new products.
'Of course this can't go for ever as the resources are becoming scarce and you did the mistake to teach others to do the same as it happen with China .'
US has 2% of the resources, but consume 20%. That can only be done by taking others resources by war. Hence, the US is engaged in plots to destabilise countries, regime change etc.
It was not a mistake to 'teach China'. That was the natural outcome of US capitalism. The capitalist forever looks to maximise his profits, and cutting labour cost is essential. Thus the US capitalists went for off shoring. The US policy makers also saw it as a way to wean China off the Soviet Union and they encouraged it.
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You are as immature as Zelenksy. I remember when Zelensky got some Himars and fired them in Sept. 2022, on the bridge, he said Ukraine will take Crimea by Dec. 2023. He said 'that is where it started, that is where it will end'.
A few months, he was in Vilnius begging for NATO entry. He was denied and told to be grateful and that NATO is not Amazon. Ukraine is in a desperate position, and you imagine a few F16s will change the outcome.
Now, that has failed, you have pushed it to 2024, after Ukraine gets F 16s. The record shows none of the game changers have worked . Russia has destroyed the Javelins, drones, Himars, Bradleys, Leopards, Patriots, Storm Shadows. They have the capability of destroying the F 16s. The Russians have plenty of time to prepare.
If Ukraine puts one foot in Crimea, it will receive a nuclear strike. Blinken has been told.
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Give me a break ! Ukraine ain't going to force Russia out of Donbass and Crimea.
When Himars were given, Zelensky and his handlers said Ukraine will capture Crimea by Dec. 2022. Ukraine did attack the Kerch bridge and threaten Crimea. That bought massive Russian retaliation. Russia destroyed the power grid and kept Ukraine mending it. No time for Crimea. The Russians withdrew from Kherson city, let the Ukranians take it, and shelled them from the across the river, so Ukraine could not go further with the Kherson offensive. After that Russia, ramped up the attack in Donbass. Soledar fell, Bakhmut is on the verge of falling. Once that falls, Russia will go after Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Odessa is a region that must return to Russia.
Ukraine has lost a lot of manpower in Soledar and Bakhmut. Russia has ramped up its manpower. The Himars did not make much effect, so now it is tanks. But they are too little too late and they are a haphazard collection. The west is not able to ramp up production.
And finally, Russia can force unconditional surrender any time with a tactical nuclear weapon on Kiev.
There is no way the Ukraine of 2014 will return, let alone the Ukraine of 1991. The battle in the south and east is lost and the west knows it. Now the question is whether Ukraine can stave off losing central Ukraine.
The Ukranians have been dumb, sacrificing their country for fighting for an American interest to have naval bases. The Americans are unwilling to die, but Ukranians are will to die for an American goal. Who does that ? Unbelievable stupidity.
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It is amusing to read the confusion and division in NATO and the western ranks over what tanks to send. It has descended to recriminations, which will lead to bitterness. Germany is required to commit national economic suicide to please America's lust for NATO expansion. All the useless nations of Europe like Poland badmouth Germany. The conceited British who disdained the EU and left it, now want to show they lead Europe against Russia !
Westerners keep claiming that NATO is the most powerful and richest alliance in the world. It is actually an unwieldy body controlled by the US and run with US interests first. After seeing the debacle in Afghanistan, where the captain ran away without telling the subordinates, it was clear NATO is a useless organisation. Such an organisation will never dare fight mighty Russia with troops on the ground as its members are fearful of death.
Russia makes decisions quickly and moves, while NATO will need many meetings. By the time they decide on tanks, Bakhmut will fall, and after that Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. NATO has sent many game changers, but Ukraine is against the ropes and is being pummeled. Now, NATO is running out of ideas. As for the much vaunted Article 5, should Russia have to attack Europe (as it nearly did when Lithuania tried to blockade Kaliningrad), the Americans will chicken out from a fight, and the rest of the Europeans will squeal and squawk but will not be able to fight Russia.
It was foolhardy of NATO to push expansion and take on mighty Russia.
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As usual, Israelis are pretending innocence, and claiming they always wanted peace, but could not find anyone to talk to. It is like their claim that Palestine was a land without people for a people without land. And as usual western media sucking up to such people and giving them a platform.
The Israelis have a colonial, apartheid mentality, they always had it, and they have institutionalised it. It is a creation of Britain and it is carried now by the US.
Anyhow, all their humbug and western backing cannot save Israel now. There are no more quick six day wars to win. Israel cannot win a multi-front battle of attrition, the technology gap has narrowed and Israel's opponents can and will fight an open ended war. 500,000 Israelis with dual nationalities have left, and more will go in a prolonged war. The IDF soldiers are psychologically unprepared for a war of attrition, and I read their morale is low now. Unlike Palestinians and Hezbollah who are used to hardship. They belong to the land, they do not have dual citizenship, they cannot run away.
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Russia killed the Ukranian counter offensive even before it could start !
The NATO planners wanted Ukraine to punch through Russian defences and follow with a blitzkrieg to the Azov Sea. The Russians would get dazed and run away or get captured.
Instead, the Bandera army lost a lot of soldiers, and those superior western wonder weapons. This is even without getting near the first Russian line. The west could not deny this because the Russians released videos of Bradleys and Leopards burning, and the Ukranians soldiers getting blown up by mines.
Now we are told the Bandera army is doing probing attacks all along the front, identifying Russia's weak spots, and wearing the Russians down and fixing them. The Russians will lose their concentration and Ukraine will overwhelm them, that is the new theory.
The western expectation was Ukraine will perform like in 2022. However, in 2023, Ukraine has only lost - they lost the power grid, then Soledar, then Bakhmut. The west has not come to terms with the reality. Perhaps the US generals know.
But the US politicians are unable to accept their reality as they staked their reputations on a western win. Ukraine will be ordered to do a big suicide mission before the NATO summit. When that flops as well, the US will ask Ukraine to negotiate. The US has better things to do - fight with China next.
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@ironknee6879 There are no alternative facts. Putin declared the aim of the special military operation is demilitarisation and deNazification of Ukraine. I wrote [ Russia fought this war to prevent NATO bases in Ukraine. That is non-negotiable. They will not allow NATO in Ukraine and they are ready to fight a nuclear war]. That is consistent with what Putin said. There are no alternative facts, I am basing myself on what Sir Putin said.
I wrote 'The Russians are winning, they cannot be evicted from Donbass and Crimea. '
The western media acknowledge Ukraine's counter offensive is going 'slower than expected' (= flop). The Ukranians cannot even reach the first defence line and they had massive casualties and loss of equipment. At best they have 3 months to make a breakthrough this year. The Russians have done the right step, they have fortified their eastern oblasts. That is not an alternative fact, the Ukranians themselves say it.
Hence, Russia is winning. In 2022, Ukraine had some wins, but in 2023, Ukraine has not had a single gain : they lost Bakhmut and Soledar, they are unable to recapture the 4 oblasts, their manpower is whittled down, and the shoddy western arms have been burnt. Russia destroyed Ukraine's power grid and has now started destroying the ports in response to the strike on the Kerch bridge. Next year, the west is not going to put money for another offensive.
The acknowledgement that Ukraine cannot win was in Vilnius, where the US barred Ukraine's entry in NATO and gave them no road map. That is the fact. That fits with the Russian aim : no NATO bases in Ukraine.
The only alternative facts are in the minds of the Slava Ukraine brigade.
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@nwhite3080 Keep that pretence of 'democratic policies ['that no matter the size you still get you say and we listen and respect and incorporate within the plan moving forward'], to yourself.
If the US tells NATO, 'you need to come to Afghanistan and die for us', all the useless small countries of Europe oblige. But if the reverse occurred, then the US would not be willing to step forward and die for the Europeans. For example, in the war situation that the US created in Ukraine by the attempted NATO expansion, the US is not willing to come and die for 'democratic Ukraine'.
When the US decided to negotiate with Taliban in Doha under Trump, and cut and run from Kabul under Biden, it did not consult other NATO 'allies' like UK, let alone the even more useless ones like Latvia. The Americans took the first flights out and left. The UK MPs were offended, but what can a vassal do ?
You need to understand the vassal is not equal to the master. This talk about 'allies', 'partners', 'shared values' is humbug.
You will soon find Ukraine will be asked by the US to negotiate and cede land after being thrown under the bus. Latvia and others will not have a say. The US will decide. And Lativia and the rest will accept.
You claim 'no matter the size you still get you say and we listen and respect and incorporate within the plan moving forward'. The Europeans cannot even dare to say who blew up Nordstream even though they know very well who did it. You don't have a say against the US.
Russian foreign minister Lavrov after the UN vote asked some African countries why they voted against Russia. The Africans asked the US what they will get in return. The US told them, 'you will not be punished'. It is the US slogan 'you are with us or against us'.
There are sovereign countries like Russia, China, India, Iran who do not want to be vassals. All one can say of the Europeans is they are vassals of the US, but they are happy vassals with delusions that they are equal 'partners'.
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@chrisallen9949 Don't be pretentious, get real. It is not Latvia or anyone in the EU or UK who decides what NATO will do. It is the US who decides. If the US says 'come and die for us in Afghanistan', Latvia and the others will obey. The reverse is not true. If Latvia misbehaves like Ukraine with Russia, don't assume the US will come and die for Latvia. Article 5 is written in an ambiguous way. It says that it is for each member state to decide what to in case of attack against one country - you can send medical aid, arms, or troops, or stay out. There is nothing binding on the members. Kissinger said long ago that the US will not fight a nuclear war with the Soviet Union to save Germany. It is the same now.
The US decided Europe should not get cheap Russian gas paid in euros. Europe has to buy LNG from the US at 4x the price, paid in dollars. When the US blew up Nordstream 2, Germany, Denmark and Sweden did not have the guts to say so.
European countries are vassal states of the US. Democracy is a fig leaf, it is used for minor policies.
Some years back Putin said there are only 4 truly sovereign states : Russia, US, China and India.
Hence, it is no point taking the weakest and most useless countries like Latvia and Poland and taking them as leaders of the 'free world'.
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@bonnie7898 Are you still putting on airs about NATO's innocence ?
NATO is run for US interests - for its arms lobby and for its govt. which seeks to grab resources.
If Russia had not taken action in 2014 and 2022, the US would have made Ukraine part of NATO. The US staged a coup in Ukraine in 2014. That is a corrupt action with scant respect for democracy. Hence, Ukraine's corruption is not the reason the US is not letting Ukraine in.
Ukraine is at war and cannot be let into NATO. Russia said in Dec. 2022, it would undertake a military-technical action if a security guarantee for Russia was not given. The US could have negotiated and prevented the war. But it did not. When the Turks arranged negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and the making of a deal was on the horizon, Biden send BoJo to scupper it. Why ?
Why send Ukraine to war promising NATO entry, and prevent it from a negotiated settlement to end the war, and when the war leads to defeat, tell Ukraine it cannot enter NATO because it is at war, and it should be grateful ?!!
Now that you realise Ukraine cannot win, you are washing your hands off and putting on an air of innocence. You want to say that the US is not the culprit for Ukraine's plight.
The US is the principal thug but it always wears a suit and acts like a gentleman, and pretends it is on 'the right side of history'. That is what you are doing - a thug posing as innocent. The rest of the world knows the US and has got stronger to rebuff it - not only the Russians, the Chinese and the Africans and the Arabs are pushing back.
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johnnyhjohns3817 Indeed, the west's position is a comedy. It sent Ukraine to fight Russia and promised Ukraine European and western status, and when defeat stared, the US threw Ukraine under the bus, and said NATO entry is not possible (due to corruption !), and Ukraine needs to be grateful, and NATO is not Amazon. Then the blame game started. Ukraine said the west should be grateful as it was sacrificing to save western civilisation. Poland and Ukraine had a spat.
Meanwhile, the west did not find supporters to boycott Russia, de-dollarisation has kicked off, and Africans, Arabs, Latin America, China and India are distancing themselves from the west.
Comic, isn't it ?
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Western media analysis are hardly objective : they typically have 1-3 'experts' all trying to play up Ukraine (they tell us all the time Ukrainians are high on motivation, and filled with the latest technology), and they downplay Russia (low on motivation, low on technology). They have no Russian analyst or anyone who might say 'Ukraine is losing and they cannot turn it around'.
The reality is Russia has taken 20% of Ukraine and they control the shipping lanes. They forget Russian airstrikes do a lot of damage and they will continue with them. Typically, they report Ukrainian claims of how many Russians they have killed, but nothing about how many Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russia can and will use the ultimate weapon, the tactical nuclear if needed. They have got Ukraine by the scruff of the neck and they will not let it go.
There is also economic warfare - they have strangled Ukraine's economy and made it impossible for Ukraine to export from its ports, and they have pinched the western economies with the gas. Russia has both the staying power militarily and economically. If the Ukrainian offensive has made no progress by winter, western support will dwindle. The Ukrainains, Russians and westerners know that. Such issues are not analysed. Ukraine is desperate to claim it is pushing the Russians back, otherwise funding will dry up.
The west has got into this mess because of its arrogance and incapacity to think rationally. Russia will outplay the west because it calculates and is determined. There is no western leader with Putin's determination and calculative mind. The western leaders are all mouth and no trousers. After all, Zelenksy is their model !
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@armandoruiz8758 You are absolutely right. The US and its allies got away with invasions of IRAQ, YEMEN, AFGHANISTAN, SYRIA, PALESTINE, KOSVO, SERBIA, YOGOSLAVIA, KOREA, VIETNAM because they did not fear of attacks on their soil. But even there, there was one attack on US soil, the first one, but it was by non-state actors. It disoriented the US and the west. With Russia, it is strong militarily - and to my surprise even economywise.
The west is used to bullying and invading others, but that is out of the question against Russia. They thought they could win by sanctions because they controlled the financial institutions and the banking systems . They did not realise that Russia could function outside their financial control and the sanctions would hurt them more than Russia. The west is on a suicidal path economywise but unable to back down out of false pride. Europe is going to be de-industrialised and the US dollar's hegemony is going to be chipped away. The rest of the world gains. Was NATO expansion worth it ?
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@scoobydoobers23 So your hope is they will run out of Soviet equipment and men, and then Ukraine will turn the tide.
That sounds like British intelligence to me.
They had said in 2022 that Russia had run out of men, in any case they were untrained and unmotivated, and they were fighting with shovels. Zelensky said the same.
But one by one Maripol, Severodonetsk, Siversk, Bakmuth, Avdivka have fallen, and Pokrovsk is next. The same unmotivated soldiers with shovels managed it, and Ukraine + NATO are losing.
Maths is kicking in - for Ukraine. Ukraine does not have enough men, many were slaughtered in Bakhmut and the 2023 counter offensive, and many are being killed in Kursk. The west does not have enough Patriots, so Lvov and Poltava and others are being struck, and there is no power. Get it ?
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@MarkM001 I did not intend to scare you. I merely intended to invite you not to fool yourself. You need to recognise the reality.
The reality is Ukraine has lost, it cannot push out Russia with Himars or any other western support, it has to cede territory in any future settlement, it cannot join NATO, and the US will not get any missile and naval bases in Ukraine. That much is certain.
The reality is Russia has proved it is more powerful than 30 weaklings + 1 superpower.
I cannot forecast what will happen to any Ukraine that is left over; who will give Ukraine the security guarantee it seeks (Russia will not allow any NATO member again), and who will fund its reconstruction (Russia will reconstruct the areas it incorporates back into Russia). Those factors will become clearer in due course.
I can forecast that Russia will bring Europe to its knees this winter, and Europe will have to lift sanctions if it does not want to be de-industrialised. Europe can of course continue with its false pride and delusions that it has the economic power to defeat Russia.
I can also say weaklings like Finland and Sweden will not make any difference to the outcome in Ukraine. Europe cannot threaten Russia's security without getting mauled by the bear. Lithuania tried to impose a blockade on Kaliningrad for 2 weeks, but Russia threatened it with a beating, and the EU asked Lithuania to back off. Europe got scared ? You tell me why they backed off on Kalinigrad after attempting a blockade, if they were not scared. Russia has out a blockade of the Ukrainian ports, and it will not back off because Harpoon missiles were supplied or one battleship was sunk. They are not scared, they do not flinch, they do what has to be done, one way or another.
Those are the stark realities.
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@Kkdgju 'I don't know what Ukraine seeks to achieve...'
Unfortunately, Ukraine has a US implanted government. Wherever that happens, it is a disaster for that country.
'So why are we encouraging it...'
For that, you have to understand US, British and western psychology. I refer you to Boris Johnson's vociferous statements. At the very beginning of the war, he said that 'we cannot allow Putin to win, as it will mean the end of the international 'rules based order'. By which he meant the order whereby US and UK can invade countries, enforce regime change, use Israel to threaten others, seize bank assets etc. He felt suicidal at the thought that that order was being defied.
Very recently, he went so far as to say, 'if Ukraine is allowed to lose, that would end western hegemony'.
Hence, the reason the west is supporting Ukraine is to maintain 'the rules based international order', known to the non-western world as western hegemony (openly admitted by Boris Johnson).
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