Comments by "John Adam" (@johnadam2885) on "Sky News"
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At the start of the counter offensive, this Sean Bell fellow said, the first 72 hours are critical, Ukraine has to do a breaching operation quickly, and then do a blitzkrieg to the Sea of Azov and the Russians would be so dazed, they would surrender. He said Ukraine must not get bogged down in a war of attrition as the Russians would win on that.
But what we observe is that Ukraine could not breach the Russian defence lines after 2 months, they could not even reach the first line and in trying, they lost much western equipment and got massacred. Then a month ago, this Sean Bell said the Ukranians are doing probing operations. After they had found the weak spot and worn the Russians down, he said they would bring their strike force and uncommitted equipment into the fray and force the Russians into surrender !
Meanwhile Ukraine's handlers in the US are beginning to voice the opinion that Ukraine cannot win. The US military is saying the Ukrainians are wasting their time and western resources with attacks on the bridge and on Moscow, and they should stick with the plan of breaching the Russian defences and heading towards Azov Sea. Meanwhile, Russia is advancing on Kupiansk with a view to get Kharkhov oblast back.
In Vilnius, the US signalled acceptance of defeat when it said Ukraine cannot join NATO and there is no plan - they conceded THE key Russian demand.
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Decisive months of battle ahead which will lead only to Russian gains. Russia has the initiative, Ukraine has lost too many soliders in Soledar and Bakhmut. Soledar has fallen, Bakhmut is encircled. Even the Americans are advising the Ukrainians to pull out of Bakhmut - so they have some save troops left for American training ! Once Bakhmut falls, Donbass will be completed with the capture of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Then the Russians will be ready to move to central Ukraine.
This expert is trying to live off the past, he recounts Russia did not succeed in capturing Kiev, he claims Donbass front has remained static etc. We can see the effort to gloss over and try to present a brave face for the west. Russia has neutralised the Himar led Kherson offensive. Zelensky's tall talk of taking Crimea by last December was just vain boasting.
Russia on the other hand can mount a major offensive. For Ukraine, this time round, it will be difficult to defend. Ukrainians forces have been attritioned and depleted in the Donbass, so they are not in a position of mounting a significant counter offensive. The paltry western tanks will make as much difference as the Himars. The west is staring at the writing on the wall, but cannot admit it. Ukraine cannot push back Russia the second time, Russia will prevail.
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Ukraine was assured it would be independent only if it gave up nuclear weapons. It had no choice. If it did not want to give up, it would have remained part of Russia. Get it ? No point claiming if only Ukraine had not given up nukes....
Next, the Budapest Memorandum did not foresee that one signatory, the US, would engineer a coup in Ukraine in 2014 and usher in a govt. that would conspire with the US to threaten Russia with NATO bases. The Budapest Memorandum says in case of any disputes on security, all four parties would have meetings to resolve it through negotiations. When Putin asked for security negotiations in 2021 for Russia, Biden declined. Hence, the US, UK, Ukraine reneged on the the Budapest Memorandum. The US thought Ukraine could defeat Russia by arming it. By 2024, it became clear that Ukraine had lost, so the US would like to go back to negotiations. Since the US, UK and Ukraine spurned negotiations to avert war in Dec. 2021, it follows any future negotiations will be on Russian terms. Those terms are : Ukraine has to cede what it has lost AND it cannot be in NATO. There can be no NATO or EU peacekeepers in Ukraine, as they took part in the war against Russia. If Ukraine does not accept, Russia will not negotiate and the war continues. Get it ?
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The lady is subtly provocative - as a news anchor should be ! She is the best western anchor I have seen, always probing behind the western propaganda about Ukrainians winning and the Russians losing.
She starts by mentioning the Ukrainian ambassador sounded weary - meaning not confident this spring offensive will go well. The 'expert' sort of acknowledges.
When she asks whether the Russian casualties the US cites are credible (she does not think it is), the expert says it is the best estimate the west has. Then he adds that the Russians are taking 6 killed in Bakhmut for every Ukrainian. Where is this figure from ? Is it credible when the Russians fire 10 shells for every Ukranian one (by Ukranian and western admission) ?
He claims it was Ukraine's strategy to attrition Russia in Bakhmut so the Russians do not have people left against the Ukrainian counter offensive. There is no mention the Ukranians were heavily attritioned as well, in fact more so, and this weakens their counter offensive prospects.
The fact is the Russians have somehow taken Soledar and pushed the Ukranians out of Bakhmut, using shovels according to the great British intelligence. This is a sore point for the west.
The side that feels defeated always puts out wild propaganda. The Russians are hitting the Ukranians hard like the ammo dump in Pavlograd, so that the Ukrainian counter offensive is still born. There is no point of talking about how F 16 s will turn matters for Ukraine when there is no chance they will have them. It is like the Germans saying they will build a tank factory in Ukraine ! According to NATO, Ukraine has 98% of what is needed. They have to now show Return on Investment as some politicians colourfully put it.
The fact is Russia has the artillery shells, the missiles, and all the other machinery to continue, compared with Ukraine and the west. The Russians have beaten the west in the economic warfare as well, and further their actions have started the de-industrialisation of Europe and de-dollarisation.
It is embarrassing for the west that the world sees that 50 nations cannot match Russia in military or economic warfare. Could there be a bigger blow to western self esteem and feeling of superiority ? Mighty Russia has punctured their ego ! Hence, all the weak propaganda.
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The Kursk operation was not secret to the UK and US, they were the planners for it. Now that Ukraine is trapped in Kursk unable to go forward or back off, and is advancing in Russia Donbass, the US and UK will now say they are not responsible, did not know about it !
This joker Bell is the one who said Russia was reduced to fighting in Bakhmut with shovels.
Gen. Patraeus, an enthusiast for the war said with the Kursk operation, the idea was to force Russia to negotiate. He said western strategy is to force Russia to ceasefire and negotiate and then get Ukraine or what remains of it into the EU and make it a free market economy ! But see the confusion of the western mind. For the 2023 counter offensive, Patraeus said the aim was to drive Russia out of Crimea. That failed, so he is talking about negotiating now, so that some bit of Ukraine can be saved and rearmed to fight. Russia is not dumb like westerners, it is not going to accept that.
Russia does no want to negotiate. When Russia agreed to negotiate with Zelenksy in Istanbul and reached an agreement, Boris Johnson and Biden ordered Zelensky to keep fighting. Ukraine at that time had the best bargaining prospects. Now Russia has the advantage (even Kursk has turned out to be an advantage as it keeps Ukraine's forces pinned), and is moving fast in the Donbass. None of the western schemes will work.
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And how is Kherson now ? Unlivable and nothing to celebrate now. Gen. Surivikin withdrew from Kherson, let the Ukranians come in, and then started massacring them from the other bank. Meanwhile the withdrawn Russian troops are battering Bakhmut. And Russia destroyed the power grid. The plan is to return Ukraine to its agricultural age, before the Soviet Union industrialised the Ukraine. No electricity, no airports, no trains, no ports, no munitions factories, no steel mills, end the capacity to wage war, just agriculture....
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Russia started the incursion into Kharkhov, forcing the Ukranians to divert troops from the Donbass front to defend it. That thinned out the Donbass front and it helped Russians advance.
Now the Ukranians themselves opened a front - and thinned themselves. They did not divert troops from Donbass, but they kind of abandoned them instead of reinforcing them. They threw their reserves into Kursk. They got the Russians by surprise and sure it was an embarassment. But in the long run, they cannot hold on to Kursk when they are simply short of manpower. Over a period, the Russians will kill the Ukrainians in Kursk. And meanwhile, the Ukrainians lose in Donbass.
The Ukrainian and US objectives are not clear.
Zelensky first said it is to strengthen Ukraine's negotiating position. Russia was not inclined to negotiate, but now it is inconceivable. Then Zelensky said Ukraine wanted to create a buffer zone. Russian missiles cross all buffer zones. Then Zelensky said that it was a message to people of Russia that war was in their country - as if the population will be angry with Putin and it would cause an uprising against Putin because of it. Instead, Russians would be angrier at Ukraine and the west and they will agree with Putin. All it does is strengthen the hand of those who advocate a nuclear strike on Ukraine.
The Kursk gamble was taken under US instruction, and it is a publicity stunt. The plan was to capture the Kursk nuclear power plant to force Russia to negotiate, as they would not be able to fight at a nuclear power plant. But the Ukrainians could not get close, and now the Russians have fortified the Kursk nuclear power plant. The Ukrainians are left with sparsely populated areas of Kursk and they are hunted by the Russians.
Clarke is distancing himself from the narrative that Ukraine is winning for the time when the folly will be exposed.
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The joker says smart weapons, and technology is the west's asymmetric advantage. What are those : Challengers, Abrams, Patriots....? Then he adds 'we don't want to give them to Ukraine because it will fall into Russian hands'.
Thus, we have superior weapons, but Russians will destroy or worse capture them, so we shall hide our superior weapons !
The reality is Russia has destroyed all categories of western weapons and shown they are junk. They have captured some and exhibited them.
Russia fires hypersonic missles, none in the west including the US has made a hypersonic missile, all their tests have failed.
I don't believe Ukraine has made any missiles of its own, it is humbug and posturing. They do not have electricity, and metals, all that was in the east. The west would have given them some old missile technology to strike deep into Russia under a Ukrainian brand, so the west can pretend that NATO is not at war with Russia. But Russia will take care of any factories and destroy them.
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@davidglow3 'The real problem is the EU is so reluctant to denounce US threats in Panama, Canada, Mexico, Greenland,Ukraine, Palestine, Syria, Somalia....'
The real problem is the Europeans have aided the US in attacking Palestine, Syria, Somalia, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Russia....
But this time, Russia was a big fish that could defeat the collective west. The US decided it cannot afford to fight Russia, but that exposed Europe to take the heat from Russia on its own.
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In 2022, the same western jokers were saying Russia had untrained manpower that did not want to fight, that they had run out of missiles and electronic components, that the rouble will be rubble due to their sanctions, and the Russians were taking horrendous casualties unlike the Ukranians....
yet, here we are, Trump knows it is lost of the west, he wants to cut and run as he has no hangup, it was not a war he created.
As for the value of British intelligence that the man claims, they are the ones who have been making the assertions above. British intelligence said that Russian soldiers were reduced to fight in Bakhmut with shovels.
Hence, the comment on Russian casualties that is a standard add-on said when having to admit Ukraine is losing a city, has to be disbelieved. The west is trapped in its lies - the US wanted NATO expansion, the EU went along, they thought they could defeat Russia through sanctions and proxy warfare, but it has failed.
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We shall see the Russians destroy the Abrams with helicopters and drones, and put them on videos.
Earlier western media said that Ukranians had broken through in Robotine, but now Bell says, they have not actually broken through, they are on the verge of breaking through the fragile Russian lines !
Sky's propaganda just does not add up. If the Ukranians have not broken through as claimed for the last two weeks, but are on the verge of breaking through as claimed by Bell now, and these super Abrams will help Ukraine to charge to the Sea of Azov according to Bell, then how will they take part in the charge after the breach (which is imminent), when the Abrams have not arrived (10 Abrams by mid Sept, 20 by end of the year) ? In that waiting period before the super Abrams enter, the Russians will keep killing the Ukranians like flies.
This is the second last throw of the die. After that fails, they will say we need the F 16s.
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It is interesting to hear the reasoning Jake Sullivan and Biden gave. The US and its collection of puny allies are unable to supply artillery shells that Ukraine needs. That is a tacit admission that Ukraine does not have the basic munitions to support their offensive; therefore Russia is winning. [All this while, they had said Russia had run out shells, missiles, tanks etc.].
To sustain the Ukranian offensive that has got nowhere, the US needs to supply what is left in the cupboard : cluster bombs.
The Russians are not going to sit back. They can start spraying cluster bombs on Kiev and Lvov. Who can complain about war crimes ? They can make all of Ukraine uninhabitable.
Further, such steps by the US bring Ukraine a step closer to receiving a tactical nuclear strike.
It shows the dire position of the US and NATO. The original belief that the Russian economy will collapse and Putin will be overthrown has failed. In the war, Ukraine has lost land - and is threatened with loss of more. The Ukranian offensive to regain land is going nowhere. The US realises Ukraine cannot dislodge the Russians; they say the Ukranian offensive is disappointing !
Meanwhile, Ukraine is pressurising the US to join NATO; but the US does not want Ukraine to join NATO, as this will mean the US will need to send troops to Ukraine. The Russians will then kill the Americans like the Ukrainians. And no US President will survive that. If Ukraine joins, and the US does not go through with Article 5, then that is the end of NATO. Even the dumb Europeans will realise it is foolish to be doormats of the US.
The US needs an off-ramp but there is none. It is trapped by its false pride and the loss of face is unbearable. Some of the less rabid US neocons have started speaking to Russia to seek an end to the war (reported by NBC). But Russia does not want to negotiate till a guarantee is given that there will be no NATO bases in Ukraine. That is the key requirement which Russia will not back down on. Till then, Russia will pulverise Ukraine, with or without cluster bombs.
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@Katoshi_Takagumi 'Debatable, but we don't even know if it was ever on the table or had they done the risk assessement.'
There is nothing debatable. At the start when Ukraine was pleading for a 'no fly zone', Putin issued one of his inimitable statements. He said the west 'will face consequences it has not faced before'. That was understood as Russia would shoot down US planes if they entered Ukraine and it would be ready for escalating to nuclear if needed. The Americans understood, and the next stay Biden announced there will be no 'no fly zone'.
Nuclear is a serious factor, and Ukraine cannot win. Russia has stated that nuclear weapons will be used on Ukraine if Russia was placed in a position of strategic defeat. Strategic defeat is Ukraine enters NATO and grants the US naval and missile bases. Before that can happen, Russia will use a nuclear strike on Ukraine.
The Russian nuclear doctrine is understood by all in the non-west, but is beyond the grasping power of the western intellect. They think Russia is bluffing. Some of them think Russian nuclear missiles will not work.
' I'm hoping there are contingency plans in work unless the west is hoping for some devine intervention to remove Mr. Putin.'
The west was hoping that the sanctions would cripple Russia, and the Russians would do a Maidan revolution and overthrow Putin, and they could put a Zelensky type of implant in Moscow, who would give access to Russia's minerals and oil and gas. That did not work out. Thereafter the west has been hoping for divine intervention. Western media said in the early months of 2022, that Putin had a hand tremor, he had a mysterious illness and he had cancer etc. Zelensky even said Putin is dead and a look-alike was acting on his behalf. The west was so ardent in its fabrications that it believed them.
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The British Army is certainly not a fighting force against Russia - no one in NATO is, not even the US when it comes to fighting the Russian army. The Ukrainains can fight because they are Little Russians, hardy people from the same family. If NATO for one moment thought it could win, it would have sent troops to Ukraine. While they scraped through in Afghanistan with a few thousand of NATO forces killed in 20 years, fighting Russia would involve tens of thousands of western soldiers killed . Afghan fighters only had RPGs mounted on Toyota pickups and IEDs. Russia on the other hand has unbelievable firepower.
In WW 2, as the Red Army approached Berlin, Gen. Montogomery asked Gen. Eisenhower who was in charge of the western command, whether the western armies could race to Berlin before the Soviets. Eisenhower stopped the silly idea as he was sure the Red Army would not stop with fighting the Germans, but it would fight the western armies. He had seen the Red Army was willing to take any casualties which the US army cannot.
The British Defence Minister Ben Wallace said in the first month that a alliance of Britain, France and Turkey kicked the backside of the Tsar in the Crimean War in the 1850s, and it could do it again ! It struck me as vain bravado and British delusions of being a great power (a colonial nostalgia). Now the US general says the British do not have an army. They cannot afford it. Ben Wallace demands money but Sunak in the present condition cannot afford it.
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@thims1961 Don't twist things. Why did the US push NATO expansion to Ukraine when the Russians said it threatens Russian security ? Russia's naval fleet which is based in Sevastopol would have been shut off from the Black Sea - that was the US aim.
The Budapest Memorandum's last Article says if there is a difference, meetings and negotiations would be conducted between the four to resolve it. When Putin asked for negotiations for a security guarantee, the US and NATO scoffed. Ukraine which since 2014 is a US proxy also kept silent. So Putin went for war to make sure there will be no NATO bases in Ukraine. In 2022, three months after the war started, there were negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey to end the war, a deal was initialled, but the US sent Boris Johnson to Kiev to urge it to continue fighting. Why ? Continue fighting they did, but from the end of 2023 the west and Ukraine are in a losing position.
Israel's annexation of Jerusalem, West Bank and Golan Heights has been designated illegal by the UN, but the US now accepts it is part of Israel. Hence, cut out your stinking duplicity and pious humbug.
The west incited Ukraine to fight Russia, and the west created Israel. Both are unsustainable and are losing, and western credibility is zero.
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What is stopping the west from supplying missiles for strikes into Russia ?
The fear is that it will eventually force the Russians to use a nuclear strike on Ukraine. After the Storm Shadow missile strike on the Crimean beach which killed civilians, Russia gave the UK and US a warning, if such strikes continue, Russia would escalate to a nuclear strike on Ukraine, and if the the west wants to escalate further, then to a nuclear war with the west. Maybe a nuclear strike on Lvov next to the Polish border would be a demonstrator. It will surely freak out the Europeans.
They may not go for a nuclear strike on Ukraine straight away. A non-nuclear escalation is also possible : they can equip the Houthis and others in the Gulf to take out US bases in the Middle East, and strike western shipping.
The west knows that the rest of Donbass will go in the next 6 months, Ukraine cannot regain Donbass, and the Russians will eventually regain Kursk.
What choices does the west then have ? The are looking for a way out with negotiations - they plan a second peace conference and they want to invite Russia !
But the question is also what choice does Russia have ? They are not going to give back Donbass. Putin had said after Ukraine walked out of the agreement reached in Turkey due to Boris Johnson's instigation, next time the Russian terms will be stiffer. Indeed, in any future negotiation, he said Ukraine has to accept the new reality - the borders of 2014, let alone 1991, will not return. Nor can Russia accept the western plan expressed by some to negotiate a frozen conflict and put the remainder of Ukraine into NATO. Russia cannot accept that - the war was fought to prevent NATO bases in Ukraine. Thus, the only option I see for Russia is to continue and take all of Ukraine. Western support will wane after the US elections - even if Harris wins. The US will divest and hand the problem to Europe. But there is opposition in Germany to fund Ukraine.
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@GF_MF It is not Russia, but it is not the single market and customs union either that has landed the EU and UK in this mess. It is the US, which through NATO controls EU and the UK. Both EU and UK have mentally accepted to be subordinates of the US. NATO expansion is driven by the US for the benefit of Lockheed et alia. and as suboridnates, EU and UK have to go along.
The US's help to Europe after WW 2 has made Europeans timid and they bow to the US. It is like the US has a blank cheque to control Europe permanently due to the help they gave 70 years ago. In the case of the UK, it believes that the US will make it a special beneficiary, over and above the Europeans. Hence, the UK regards the Europeans as a hindrance - although 40% of the UK's trade was with the EU, and loss in that trade has not been plugged by an alternative.
By analogy, the UK and EU look down on Russia, although 60-70% of their energy comes from Russia. Putting sanctions has not allowed them to find an alternative to plug the gap.
Till the EU - and the UK also - develops independent thinking, and says they will decide who their friends are and who they will trade with (regardless of what Americans think), the Europeans and British have to jump over the cliff like lemmings because the US thinks that is needed. This crisis has shown countries like India, China, Iran etc. do not follow anyone's order except their own. That is true sovereignty. The Europeans and British are only partially sovereign.
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@lewis123417 'Pmsl russias GDP is barely bigger than that of Italy'
This is based on one dimensional wishful thinking. What matters also is what is in the GDP and how self sufficient a country us. Russia's economy produces oil and gas, it is the largest wheat exporter, it mines diamonds, gold, it makes steel, titanium, aircraft, it is the leading country in the nuclear fuel supply chain, it can launch satellites and destroy them as well, it has its own GPS, it makes incredible weapons like no one else, its industries are not out sourced. Russia is self sufficient in energy, materials, land, water. What is in Italy's GDP : some cars, shoes, fashion, tourism. Italy is dependent on others, it is a vassal of the US.
Biden thought the same as you, and said rouble will be rubble. Instead Russia has withstood economic and military warfare of the collective west - and defeated you. The world can see that. That is the reason you are burning inside.
The world has changed, but you haven't. That is why you come up with immature statements like Russia's economy is the same as Italy's. So can Italy fight Russia, when the combined west fought and could not win ? Numskull !
All the industrial production is not concentrated in western countries anymore like 70 years ago, so Russia can trade with others and get anything it wants. European car makers were forced to leave Russia, but China moved in. They make cheaper and better cars. The European car makers lost market share and it is not coming back. Get it ?
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