Comments by "John Adam" (@johnadam2885) on "Alexander Mercouris"
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'...country with a GDP of the size of Italy's....'
The west makes all these shallow one-point analyses. It also matters what is in that GDP. Italy can make shoes, some fashion, luxury cars, cheese and agricultural products. Russia can launch space vehicles, hypersonic missiles, planes, ships, metals and alloys including titanium, and gold, it is the country with the complete nuclear fuel supply chain, it has oil and gas, it makes fertiliser, and is the largest producer of wheat. Italy and nobody in Europe can do that. Russia is self sufficient which Italy and Europe are not.
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According to The Guardian, the Ukrainians have taken Robotinye and punctured the first line of defence. Typically, they interview some Ukranian soldier and report that as fact. The Ukranian soldier told the Guardian the Ukranians did manual demining at night and created a corridor for advance. There was a lot of self praise, and he said the Russians could not believe Ukraine could do it. All this is natural for a Ukrainian. He said now that a corridor has been demined, the advance was straightforward because the 2nd and 3rd Russians lines are poorly defended. We don't know, but that is the assertion of the Ukranian soldier reported by the Guardian as fact. Once the corridor is demined, the Guardian makes out that it is straightfoward for the Ukrainian armoured vehicles to advance without opposition. The expectation is the Russians will crumble and surrender.
This kind of hopeful reports of breaching the line and impending Ukranian advance has been going on in the western media, but I still see no lightning move towards the Sea of Azov. Expectation and hope does not seem to match the actuality.
On Sky News, I saw self-contradictory propaganda by Sean Bell. He was reporting on the Abrams tanks. He also said that Ukranians were clearing the minefields manually and advancing, and then the Abrams will be invaluable in leading the charge to the Sea of Azov. But he said 10 Abrams will arrive mid Sept. and another 21 at the end of the year. So at present Ukraine's efforts to breach the lines is purely by infantry, and the armoured tanks will appear later from behind to lead the charge ! Firstly, by the time those Abrams come on the scene, the Russians will massacre the Ukrainian infantry. Secondly, the Russians may destroy the Abrams from the air when they arrive.
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Agree, Russia has all the strong cards. Ukraine was foolish to allow Ukro Nazis and indulge in Russophobia, thinking it will bring NATO acceptance. Ukraine is losing its industrial heartland, it has lost the coastal areas, and Russia can strangle its economy. If Ukraine wants to survive with what remains, it has to go back to neutrality, give up on NATO, and the Nazi elements need to be taken out. Playing the anti-Russian card to get western support is not going to work. Otherwise, Ukraine is going to lose more. Of course, having backed Ukro Nazis, this is a humiliating loss for the west. But as the commentator says, it is best for the west to cut its losses now as it will become worse later.
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'England and France have great plans to win against Russia and the only thing they need are Polish soldiers - I hope that the Poles will not be fooled this time'
That is indeed the plan. British MP Tobias Ellwood had floated in 2023 an idea of a 'coalition of the willing'. Asked who would compose it, he said British, French, US - and Poles ! Poles would provide the bodies, the other three the minds.
The Poles will be fooled this time also, they are emotional people without reasoning capacity.
'Roosevelt and Churchill decided that Poland should be in the communist bloc behind the Iron Curtain.'
They had no choice, the Soviet Union and Stalin were too powerful, the Red Army had destroyed 80% of the German armies, and it had driven the Germans out of Poland. It was the Red Army that liberated Auschwitz. If it was left to Germany, there would be no Poland; and if they had relied on the British, they would have been waiting a long time. Roosevelt/Truman and Churchill/Atlee had no choice but to accept Stalin's demands. At least, the Soviets left a Poland, the one that exists today. Putin reminded the Poles that modern Poland is a gift of Stalin.
In an interesting twist, the Pole Konstantin Rokossovsky was one of the Red Army's famous generals who took part in Operation Bagration which stormed the German lines and started the drive to Berlin. After the war, Rokossovsky was made Defence Minister - of Poland ! Th founder of the KGB was the Pole Felix Dzherzhinsky.
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@ccahill2322 Yes, I understand 'sticking with the script', and not the news, is the order even in the free world, for the free press. Noam Chomksy said the western media 'manufactures consent'.
In a recent Palestinian-Israeli fighting episode, the BBC was called out for saying Israelis were 'killed'; but Palestinians 'died'. The first implies a destructive action; the second implies no destruction, it was a natural event. Subtle but wilful distortions shape people's minds : Palestinians are fanatics, Israelis are innocents minding their business.
Israel is a creation of the British and French, and afterwards the US is its sustainer. So the western media has to project Israel favourably since it is its chosen one. Criticising Israel will point the finger of guilt on its creators.
The Ukraine war has come due to western backing of NATO expansion. But the western media is not going to question the recklessness of their own governments in seeking NATO expansion. Instead, they turn it into a holy defence of sovereignty. They did not defend Iraq's or Afghanistan's right to sovereignty. That is why the west has lost credibility, and outside the west, people back Russia.
Every statement on the war now starts with 'Russia is losing'. Afterwards, they tell you Bakhmut might fall. And they will conclude still with 'Russia is losing'.
Russia has achieved many goals : (1) Ukraine will not join NATO (2) US is not going to have missile and naval bases (3) the GDP creating part of Ukraine is taken (4) Russia controls the coastal areas and the shipping lanes (5) reconstruction of Ukraine is not possible without Russian consent and (6) Russia has strangled Ukraine's - and Europe's - economies.
The reality is frustrating and the sense of being defeated is humiliating, so people console themselves with the media telling us 'Russia is losing'.
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Why are the British so obsessed with fighting and defeating Russia ? Whether it is Johnson, Truss, Sunak, Starmer, they are all eager warmongers who over estimate Britain's power.
What happens if Ukraine strikes inside Russia with Storm Shadow, and Russia retaliates and sinks a British ship, or lands a Sarmat missile on Britain, and the Americans look the other way ?
It seems that the UK thinks it drives US policy. The UK is merely a useful door mat of the US. Why was France not invited when its missile is the same as Storm Shadow ?
Biden is a lame duck President, he is not in a position to take such a momentous decision which would commit the US to a direct war with Russia.
After the election, if it is Trump, he will end this nonsense, he will not allow US to be run by Ukraine and UK. Even if it is Kamala, she will also slowly distance herself and put Germany and the Europeans to shoulder the responsibility for Ukraine.
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@jackneuman5108 Russia is prevailing because Ukraine has lost 20% of the land that produced 90% of its GDP. Further, the Russians block Ukraine's access to the Black Sea. Ukraine has to ship wheat through Poland and now Polish farmers have blocked that. Russia has destroyed Ukraine's power grid. They have taken Soledar and Bakhmut. They have fortified the lines.
Russian economy is going down ? You said that in the first month. Biden said rouble will be rubble. None of that happened. Instead, Russia floored western economies. Germany is being de-industrialised. Workers in France, Britain and Germany are on strike due to inflation. No one is on strike in Russia because they cannot afford heating. Russia's economy is essentially self sufficient. Also, they have found alternative trade partners.
Your 'modern gear flowing in to Ukraine' will make no difference. You said Himars were game changers. Now the western media which said Himars were game changers say the Russians jammed the GPS and the Himars are not hitting targets. The Russians have destroyed one Patriot and damaged one out of a battery of three; this is slowly being admitted.
The western media, Stoltenberg and all the rest of the gang, said that the west cannot produce enough artillery shells to meet Ukraine's consumption. NATO has admitted it cannot ramp up production. The Russians can and have. They fired 7 shells at the Ukro Nazis in Bakhmut compared with one the Ukranians fired. Against the Patriots and tanks, they will keep attacking them with drones and the like, till the west cannot supply enough Patriot missiles. This is their tactic. It will be like the artillery shells. The Russians can turn Ukraine into a wasteland which is permanently dependent on EU aid. They will not allow any reconstruction.
As for demographics, what about Ukraine ? 30% of its population is refugees. Ukraine has lost a lot of men in Bakhmut to no avail.
The war is lost for the west. You know the saying 'Humpty Dumpty sat on the wall and fell down and all the Kinf's Men and Horses could not put him back again'. That is Ukraine's situation. The Ukraine of 2014 is not coming back, still less the Ukraine of 1991. It is gone for good. If they continue, they will lose more.
Anyhow, the west must continue out of false pride. Defeat is painful to accept. This Ukranian counter offensive is the last desperate throw of the die. It has not taken off even. Once it peters out, the US will move on to China and tell Ukraine to accept the reality.
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@b1daly1 The real blame is the US and its subordinates in Europe. The US financed and supported a coup d'etat in Ukraine against an elected government, it aided groups that are Nazi like Right Sector and Azov Batallion, to stoke anti Russian nationalism. The purpose was to get hold of naval bases in Ukraine. Russia asked for a security guarantee, the US declined, so Russia stopped US machinations in Ukraine.
The US has a despicable record overthrowing governments in Latin America, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan and installing puppets who it can control. That might have worked in those countries, but if you try that with Russia, they will maul.
The US sent troops to Iraq to evict Saddam from Kuwait (although the US encouraged Saddam to invade Kuwait and sold arms), so if Russia has robbed Ukraine of its vital areas, why does the US not send troops to Ukraine ?
The reason is the US and its European allies do not have the courage to fight Russia. In that case, why did you encourage Ukraine to think it could get into NATO ? The US is shameless and has let Ukraine down.
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@JackSparrow-vv2uq Your thesis is built on the assumption Russia will pull out. Russia is not pulling out. It will take a part in the east, the industrial part, and control the coastal part. The rest they will bomb to smithereems.
Where did you get the notion that 'Erdogan told him to pound sand and he meekly came back into the agreement to not look more like a weak fool'. If you are referring to the agreement to allow grain shipment, that was not Erdogan. The President of the African Union visited Putin (he ignored the EU) and asked for relief on grain shipment. Putin agreed, Erdogan and UN were intermediaries. Russia at one time reconsidered stopping it, because there was news that the grain was going to Europe.
The damage to Ukraine some weeks back was $ 700 billion, it will cross $1 trillion and it will keep mounting. Russia can keep going, you will find it hard to continue with handouts to Ukraine. Seizing 300 billion is irrelevant, it is not enough. Besides, there is no way Europeans and US can enter for reconstruction, as Russia can keep the war open. If a few of you get killed, you will run away.
You have led Ukraine up the wrong path. The Ukraine of 1991 is not returning. In what form it remains will be decided by Russia, and not you. Russia has changed the western run world order for good. Only Russia could do it.
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