Comments by "Ivancho" (@ivancho5854) on "Northern Africa, After America || Peter Zeihan" video.

If the US leave, and it's looking increasingly likely that that is the case, then resources in the Mediterranean are up for grabs. This means that those with military might will rule. In a word Turkey. However they will not be able to exploit it. Hence they will have to get a partner with a NATIONAL oil company like Total or ENI, because an independent company would leave at the first sight of trouble. It would also have to be tolerated by the other power in the Mediterranean, France (with assistance from Italy). This may mean that the Eastern Mediterranean oil and gas assets never get exploited. It will make sense for France to try to impoverish Turkey as much as possible as they are regional rivals.
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Renewables will not be a solution for Morocco. Your only assets are, as far as I'm aware, phosphate and you buy arms from the USA. The phosphate is essential, which is good, but whoever controls the mines will export it, which less good. Algeria will probably either get invaded by France or arms from France, my bet would be invasion. I suspect that Morocco will be ok as it should survive because of phosphate, but it's not worth invading. Your biggest threat is likely that you might not be able to feed yourself, but wars are a solution for population control and if France needs North African colonies again then a war between Algeria and Morocco would reduce Algerian capabilities. I suspect that the world is returning to more Machiavellian state politics.
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@devalapar7878 Solar panels must be kept clean and you need water for that. Also Europe will not be beholden to anyone for the lifeblood of any civilisation - energy. We learnt that from Russia. Better to stick with nuclear and hydrocarbons and if we don't have it ourselves then multiple sources are better than relying on one (North Africa).
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If the US becomes seriously disinterested in North Africa, and I suspect that they will in time, then I really wouldn't be surprised if France went after Algeria and Tunisia again. Morocco and Libya pose no threat and the Sahara is like a sea and can be patrolled by drones. France would get oil and gas by pipeline which it needs and it would also secure the Western Mediterranean. The immigrant problem could then be controlled. It makes a lot of sense. The same goes for Italy taking back Libya, but Egyptian proximity poses a problem, but I think that Egypt is screwed if it doesn't expand. I suspect that it would be worth the gamble for Italy and France would likely assist them. An alliance between France and Italy may be needed to counter Turkey. I don't think that Spain would be interested, or even capable of taking Morocco, though I could be wrong. I'm very unsure about Spain's future - could it become a forgotten backwater? Very hard to say. France must first fix it's domestic problems with it's fractured population, though France could be Machiavellian and use a war in Algeria could get rid of people. It then needs to be an incredibly ruthless colonizer, much like Russia and not be bothered by human rights and rule with an iron fist, which reminds me of the pre-19th Century world. I wouldn't be surprised to see France and Italy back in North Africa in my lifetime. Time will tell as things are bound to happen which are unforeseen. Raw geopolitics is a really cutthroat and dirty business. The US world order was objectively a force for good. All the best.
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@juniorjames7076 Stranger things have happened.
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@onehairybuddha Do you wash your windows with air? Your car? Do you take air showers? Do you know how much water is required to grow crops? Desalination to grow food is sheer fantasy and sounds like something that crazy oil rich yet incredibly uneducated and stupid Dubai would try to get their slaves to build. If people worried about the environment then why would you build gigantic solar farms to desalinate seawater? That's insane! And exactly how could Morocco afford all this? Look, it's this simple: ANY country which can't feed itself and relies on imported food will eventually find out that food will be used as a weapon against them and there will be famine. Egypt, Pakistan, Somalia and Eritrea will absolutely have gigantic famines when food gets scarce. Eventually there won't be enough food for everyone in the world and then a lot of exports will stop and the little surpluses will go to the rich and militarily powerful countries. Many millions will die. Overpopulation = War and Famine... EVERY... SINGLE... TIME.
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@hasankilic9825 Never is a long time. Vive la France! 🇫🇷
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