Comments by "Ivancho" (@ivancho5854) on "Things I (Do) Worry About: A Post-Germany Europe || Peter Zeihan" video.

  1. I used to be in this field and I can tell you now that it's Western companies and workers who dominate it and we won't be going back to Russia for decades. The companies lost too much and it's too dangerous for personnel at any price point. So who's left? Indians are competent as individuals, but lack the companies and the Chinese are remarkably incompetent in this and most industries. So the Russian oil and gas sector will continue to burn and crumble to dust. They shouldn't have picked a fight with Ukraine.
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  2. I don't have high hopes for Italy. 😞
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  3. They will emigrate as much of their companies and people to the USA where inputs are all cheaper.
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  4. Who will counter Russia? Without meaning to be insulting, Austria has been freeloading on its security since the end of WW2. Are things going to change now?
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  5. Um, the USA is a huge exporter of all hydrocarbons.
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  6.  @thunderstorm6630  The proven reserves are massive in the USA. The supermajors are buying up the smaller players and concentrating on getting a lot more out of shape fields and I personally have very high hopes. Many offshore areas, like California (🤦‍♂️) have not been fully explored. Also American has over the last few years increased its maritime claims enormously. For instance the area newly claimed north of Alaska and unfortunately disputed with Russia and Canada, is larger than California and likely has gigantic oil and gas reserves. Ultimately if the United States ever does run out of hydrocarbons and the technology to grow it using algae or something similar doesn't exist then you can simply go back to importing. Due to demographics, worldwide demand should be in decline or possibly just flat line for about a decade. Wind, solar and nuclear could also reduce demand somewhat. Then there is Venezuela. They have gigantic proven reserves and are so incompetent that they will soon be importing. The communist dictatorship is hated by Washington DC and it wouldn't take much if oil was required to "liberate" it in the name of democracy. Their threatening of their neighbour Guyana could be beneficial. The USA has many, many options and is in a great strategic position. All you have to do is sort out your politics. 🤣 All the best.
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  7. The only question is: mustache or not? Strong leaders don't have a great history in Germany.
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  8. Yeah, war has returned to Europe and will account for a sizable percentage of GDP going forward. So that's a plus. 😢 I don't see Russia stopping in the next decade. They'll just keep pushing and pushing until they run out of enough manpower. I really don't think that the russian people will effectively mobilize until their losses are at least an order of magnitude greater than today and even then they may not stop Russian imperial expansion. In their history as far as I know the people have only ever risen up once and that did not stop their expansion at all. There's only one thing that can stop their expansion, which is fragmentation and then the whole bloody cycle starts again. Germany should be working on robot soldiers, which make robot soldiers - Robot Wars? God help us all.
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  9. A different kind of bad. 🤣 God save the King.
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  10.  @DezorianGuy  There is no doubt that Russia is an extremely resilient country with a historically very loyal population, whether they like it or not, and shouldn't be underestimated. Some Western equipment with continue to operate, but for instance a Siemens, MAN or GE compressor will soon be scrap - try moving gas without one. As far as the oil sanctions are concerned India is turning away Russian tankers now and that is because of the US tightening banking sanctions in the UAE. Russia does definitely care about this.
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  11. I don't think that there are enough of them, they're old and Russian companies are extraordinarily corrupt - it's a gangster economy. Any modern plant, like a compressor or even a large valve is Western and try getting them serviced or replaced now. Also even the Russians are appalled by Chinese equipment which could substitute. Yeah, Russian oil and gas is slowly going to disappear. They're already starting to import refined products from Belarus. Beyond the Urals is safe from Ukrainian attacks (for now), but the Trans-Siberian Railway is already running at capacity. Russia is in a very bad strategic situation IMHO. All the best.
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