Comments by "Ivancho" (@ivancho5854) on "The Future of Manufacturing: Where and Why? || Peter Zeihan" video.

  1. I doubt it unfortunately. Argentina was amazing until Peronism - that's a monumentally difficult addiction to combat.
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  2. ​ @t.r.2283 I was visiting my father in hospital in the UK. He's 86 and an occupational therapist asked him what advice he would give to younger people. He didn't reply, so I said "have children" and she nearly had a fit! "Why would I ever want to do that?" She was probably in he mid thirties. I resisted the temptation to tell her that she won't get looked after by the state in old age as she plans. People are unbelievably out of touch with reality. All the best. 👍
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  3. ​ @rtqii  Italy is not in control of its borders or immigration. The faceless bureaucrats of the EU are and their agendas do not favour the needs and wants of the people. I don't think that EU policies are sustainable at all. The EU has become a self feeding creature. I don't know how long the EU has to go, but I've thought this for over a decade! 😐
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  4. Indonesia and the Philippines have been extremely promising for decades, but it never happened for political/closed market and corruption problems which have constantly been downplayed. I hope that they overcome it this time.
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  5. Exactly. Europe has the capacity and capability to re-industrialise, but simply lacks the will - it's almost like a death cult. It's mind blowing how everything that was easily possible in the 60s is now utterly impossible. What happened? Maybe it's demographics? Young people are optimistic, but if there are too many old people a society becomes pessimistic? Who knows, but one thing is for sure: it has to change and fast.
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  6.  @JoeCole_social  I just googled it. 😁
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  7. ​ @ianfromthephilippines  It was a brilliant strategy to peel China away from the Soviet Union during the Cold War and hence entirely necessary. The delusion came afterwards when the West thought that by continuing China would abandon the CCP. It was after the fall of the Soviet Union that the vast majority of harm was done to Western industry. All the best.
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  8. What!?!? Are you saying that Communist Vietnam won't be an American manufacturing paradise? 🤯 It's like the USA is making the exact same mistake as continuing prioritising China after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Brother you couldn't make this up. 🤦🏻‍♂️🤣 All the best.
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  9. ​ @brendanalfo411  No. You can get inputs from anywhere. It's better to produce where the demand is. That way the local politics align with manufacturing needs.
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  10.  @brendanalfo411  Consumption will continue to be dominated by the West. The West can produce much more inputs if it wants to. Inputs come from across the globe because of globalization (bad for security) and cost (it's always better to go after low hanging fruit), but also because of the green agenda which for example bans coal in the West, but not in China, India, etc (a truly insane policy if you believe in the green agenda, in which case carbon emitted anywhere has equal importance, or if you don't believe in the green agenda, in which case you are harming Western economies and benefitting our enemies). Madness. 🤦
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  11. The sun came up today and will tomorrow. 😑
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  12. Bingo! We have a winner. 👍👍
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  13. Eastern Europe has incredibly low birth rates.
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  14.  @JoeCole_social  Poland 1.5 and declining, Czech 1.8 and slightly rising, Hungry 1.5 and rising, Bulgaria 1.8 and declining. These countries seem to be representative of Eastern Europe, between 1.8 and 1.5 and generally declining, though there are large regional differences even within countries (Bulgaria varies from 2.1 to 1.6 regionally) and minorities (eg Muslims and Gypsies, if we're allowed to comment on them?). The figures in Eastern Europe are slightly better than Western Europe, but it's not great. Nowhere in Europe approaches 2.1, but almost everywhere in Europe is seeing immigration (even Poland which socially was very much against immigrants I believe!). IIRC Ukraine was one of the worst before the invasion and now is definitely the worst in the continent. It's a fascinating subject. I'm really interested in Orban's tax breaks in Hungary (despite it looking like he's not a fan of democracy), but there really doesn't look like there's a clear answer as to how to reverse the demographic decline. In the end if it's not too severe and every country is experiencing this then, apart from how to support an ageing population, is falling birth rates a bad thing? Maybe not. Are we panicking about nothing? It's very hard to say. It may just be a change with both positive and negative implications. All the best Joe.
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  15. Incredibly bad economic policy combined with terrible Turkish demographics and great Kurdish demographics. This makes for a very volatile mix.
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  16. I really, really doubt it. 😐
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  17. Yeah, he had one chance to get rid of Argentina's Central Bank and formally Dollarize. He didn't, so he'll fail. Simple.
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  18. India is intentionally focused inward and they are very protectionist. This strategy serves India best. Also their demographics are also prophetically showing weakness.
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  19. Mexico's problems run far, far deeper than mere transport issues and it's very questionable if most are at all fixable.
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  20.  @hpp2021  Um, drug cartels running huge chunks of the country for starters. Next, the implications of those drugs on the population of the USA. The links between Mexican drug cartels and Chinese pharmaceutical and chemical companies, and remember all but the smallest Chinese companies have employees who report directly to the CCP. Do I need to go on?
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  21.  @Urgelt  Exactly. But which president are you referring to? The US President or the President of Mexico?
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  22.  @Urgelt  I have heard that the new Mexican President (I can't recall her name) is basically going to continue the last ones policies - so no changes going forward.
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  23. In the 50s such radical talk could get you shot! 😂
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  24. Canada will soon suffer a depression and totally reverse it's immigration policies IMHO.
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  25. Another comment deleted. Civil, but truthful. 😑
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  26. IMHO Pakistan is likely heading for very hard times because it can't feed itself.
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  27.  @Kapil__Lanjewar  I agree. A degree of Indian self-sufficiency serves India very well and most other countries should try to emulate this as much as possible. All the best. 🇮🇳🇬🇧
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  28. That's bound to end well. 😑
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  29. ​ @ianfromthephilippines  Yes. I agree 100%. The US may not even bother with the Mediterranean, where the French/Italians/Greeks can face up to the Turks.
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