Comments by "Gary VAQ" (@stlouisix1) on "UN vote. Russia Kharkov Volchansk buffer zone, Ukraine panic. Cummings, Elensky is NOT Churchill" video.
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The fact that this motorized regiment without much heavy gear was used is revealing. It confirms reports that Russia is no where close to introducing its “main force” into the region, which can come much later after Russia has tested the Ukrainian defenses, revealed their positions via recon-by-fire, and then softened them up with air strikes.
Ukrainian military sources report that not only does Russia possibly have a much larger force it intends to introduce later, but another one is gathering in Sumy region as well:
Well, almost exactly two months later, it looks like things are bearing fruit. I believe the current action is both multi-stage and longer term. That means you won’t see a flash-in-the-pan blitzkrieg or thunder-run, but rather a very methodical introduction of forces from the north at key points like turning the screws on a vise.
Russia will likely see how Ukraine reacts to the Kharkov incursion, watch where it deploys its reserves, and act accordingly, with potential Sumy and/or Chernigov contingents to come in much later.
Remember: the objectives right now are to degrade and destroy the AFU manpower, not to “capture territory”—that will all come as a natural secondary byproduct of its own.
In the meantime, Russia is slowly degrading the logistics in the region:
The northern incursion is in fact a pinning operation for now, but that’s not all it is. It’s part of the grand boa constrictor or ‘death by a thousand cuts’ strategy I’ve been describing for over a year now, and more resources will be poured constantly onto it until the trickle develops into a deluge. After that, it will be a fully formed front in its own right and Ukraine will have major problems choosing where to send reserves.
In the meantime, the Avdeevka-Ocheretino axis is deteriorating fast, which is precisely why Russia decided to “turn the screws” some more:
And by the way, today new gains were made on the Kupyansk front toward the town Pishchane, which reinforces the idea that soon this front may get more activated in accordance with the northern breach.
Despite advance warning and accurate intel, Ukraine can do nothing about the events that are soon to come. This is a chess match and a numbers game; you can “know” full well the constrictor is tightening over your chest, but there will be little you can do about it. Ukraine will lack the means to respond to the constant swell of Russian troops and armaments on every single frontline, which will only stretch longer and longer as Russia potentially introduces new breaches into Sumy, Chernigov, and perhaps even elsewhere—some Russian channels are still trading rumors of a potential push from Belarus into Kiev region as eventual part of the now initiated cascade.
Recall all the quotes from Ukrainian officers I recently posted wherein they admitted they don’t have the mobility to match Russian ‘whack-a-mole’ tactics. Russia can transfer units from one region to another and mesmerize the AFU with the ‘thousand cuts’ from every angle, and Ukraine simply doesn’t have the logistical infrastructure to keep up plugging each hole. The longer the front stretches, the worse this issue becomes. - Simplicius
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