Comments by "Gary VAQ" (@stlouisix1) on "Huge Rus Missile Strike, Rus Advance Ocheretino, Kupiansk; More Ukr Troops Disobey, Zelensky Attempt" video.
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Elites have become authoritarian, using illiberal liberalism, greenism, and identity politics to compel, coerce, and punish. Their self-righteousness breeds narcissism. Sturgeon used "I," "me," and "my" 153 times in her resignation speech, while "Scotland" appeared only 11 times. Covid added to the disdain for voters. Politicians locked us down, raged against dissent, and embraced authoritarian tendencies. New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern’s "Zero Covid" experiment was praised by globalists but angered citizens. She resigned as prime minister in January 2023 with her lowest poll ratings, while Labour suffered its worst defeat in decades. - TFIGlobal
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Now, things have gotten so bad there’s rumor the U.S. is tightfisting its own supply due to shortages:
That means the U.S. and combined West’s 155mm situation is so bad that the U.S. doesn’t even have enough of its own rounds to conduct basic routine training for its own crews, which eats up a certain percentage of rounds per month throughout the year.
But now the latest claim being trotted out is that Germany’s Rheinmetall plans to send Ukraine “millions” of rounds: This is all cruel nonsense. It’s hard to understand why they torture Ukrainians with such lies.
Is that a joke? 100k shells by the second year? Those should be monthly numbers. Russia is said to be doing 250-350k shells a month at the minimum.
And it’s nearly insulting to even comment on Rheinmetall’s claim of building an ammo factory in Ukraine—this is nothing but childish posturing. They know full well such a factory would get a sunny visit from Iskander and his pal Kinzhal and be promptly reduced to constituent silica.
Not to mention NATO’s defense firms continue to go up in flames, with reports claiming Germany’s Diehl plant burned for days:
But when you take a look at the Caesar production capability you learn that France itself has only 40-60 of them total, depending on source. And each unit takes a whopping 30 months to build—it took them something like 8 years just to build the few dozen that they have.
Now of course that doesn’t mean they build one at a time, and the production time has allegedly been “halved” since then—they can build a few simultaneously in those months it takes, but it still means the total “75” is years away.
A trickle of a few Caesars per year is not going to do much when Ukraine is facing collapse.
The UK is in a similar quandary:
Russia’s advantage is that it has many different types of missile systems which are produced independently by various corporations like Novator Design, Raduga, NPO Mash, Zvezda Strela, JSC Tactical Missiles Corp, etc.
In conclusion: I remain unconvinced Ukraine can effectively do anything to the Kerch with ATACMS. Secondly, as time goes by the ATACMS will likely get increasingly ineffective as Russia adapts its systems and tactics to it, and AD operators master its signatures.
To summarize the mood: ATACMS and all the other aid won’t save Ukraine, but rather “a whole new army” is what will do the trick. And even then, the best case scenario is to “force Moscow to negotiate”—goodbye to 1991 and 2022 dreams. - Simplicius
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