Comments by "Gary VAQ" (@stlouisix1) on "Rus Defeats Ukr Avdeyevka Attack, Ukr Troops Surrender, Zelensky Evasive IL76: US Iraq Syria Pullout" video.
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A Direct HIT! Russian KH-101 Cruise Missiles Destroyed NATO Objects In ODESSA, KHARKIV, & KRYVYI RIH
On the night of January 25, Russia launched another massive missile attack on the territory of Ukraine. This time, military facilities on the territory of Odessa, Kharkiv, and Kryvyi Rih were attacked. In all these cities, the air alert sounded throughout the night. Witnesses claim that after a series of powerful explosions, fires began to break out in different parts of these cities. According to preliminary data, during today's missile attack, Russia used about 50 KH-101 cruise missiles and about 70 jet-powered 'Geranium' kamikaze drones. The missile launches were carried out using Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers. - BORZZIKMAN
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There are some very strange happenings in the Middle East which underscore the historic shifts grumbling just beneath the surface, ready to break through.
Firstly, to set the stage we turn to Israel, which appears to be concealing an operation that has gone off the rails, and is not yielding any of the expected results—and in fact has done little more than turn the world against them, creating a shockwave of anti-Israeli fervor that will steer sentiment for generations.
Israel has withdrawn many of its brigades from the north, citing ‘rest and rotation’ when in reality it appears to be ‘reconstitution’, as the brigades took major attritional losses. Now in the wake of that, the latest bombshell reports state that resistance fighters have re-infiltrated the entire north.
I myself was skeptical—could Israel really have abandoned the entire north after “claiming” to have captured it?
But here’s the double bombshell: even ISW admitted it:
For the Kagan-run institute to admit this is huge.
All we can do is infer from a variety of objective observations, such as the distinct lack of any mass eliminations or captures of resistance fighters, which is very telling.
During the entire time, there have been increasingly urgent secret talks between the US and Israel, with the Biden administration pleading with Netanyahu to curb his assaults.
In the meantime, Israel has continued to press into Khan Younis in the south. But yesterday they suffered what was unanimously called the biggest ‘tragedy’ of the entire conflict thus far. During one of the IDF’s routine mining operations, consisting of rigging explosives on civilian buildings, resistance fighters were able to trigger a detonation with dozens of IDF still inside the building:
This led to ~24 IDF killed in a single blast:
This is only a symbolic culmination of what appears to be turning into a fiasco. If I didn’t know any better, I would surmise that Israel’s operation is mirroring Ukraine’s doomed Khrynki assault: where an inability to admit grave miscalculation has led to a sunk cost fallacy induced comedy of errors.
Recall that just last month Kirby admitted that Hamas had not been attrited at all, and an Israeli reserve colonel gave a tearful account of piled up IDF bodies which seemed to imply that they are taking far heavier losses than they’re admitting to.
Israel steadily loses support even among its allies.
Now, at the worst possible time, Iran has decided to turn the screws on Israel, creating extremely unfavorable conditions by locking down the maritime chokepoints, as well as putting unprecedented pressure on Israel’s top ally of the US, militarily, all across the region.
My take is this: in short, the US is being run out of town by Iran. Their bluff was called and US knows their puny strikes can do nothing to truly degrade Iran’s highly decentralized hybrid warfare systems and groups. Iran has risen to become a hegemon verging on a Great Power of the region. The US has a few obsolete fleets which cannot keep up blow for blow with Iran in exchanged rounds of ammo. Iran can saturate them forever with drones and cheap rockets which the US is spending millions per every fired shot to intercept.
Each day that passes and each new strike on US bases in Iraq and Syria brings the US closer and closer toward the brink. They know they cannot maintain this tempo, particularly given that Israel was the US’ chief mode of deterrence against Iran in Syria. But now Israel has its own hands tied in Gaza and US has suddenly found itself being overwhelmed.
The action appears to be coordinated within the resistance axis, particularly given new reports that Russia will begin aerial patrols of the Golan Heights corridor.
This is an escalation spiral that the West is not ready for, particularly when they’re embroiled in numerous conflicts around the globe.
The longer it goes, the larger the political storms that will engulf Europe. The AfD in Germany, for instance, is already now calling for a DeXit or German exit to leave the EU. Things are certainly coming to a head, and the chickens are coming home to roost for the US as well, as the southern border is now slowly inching toward civil war.
Biden appears to be caged in by the Israeli lobby, contrasting that with previous presidents who managed to show a little more dignity and gumption in standing up to Israel’s control over the US.
And some within the state department and military may be outright pushing for the total withdrawal simply to keep the US from being embroiled in a larger war they know is unwinnable. - Simplicius
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