Comments by "The Looinrims" (@looinrims) on "Largest Russian Missile Barrage In Months - But Where Is Their Army?" video.
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@bilic8094 you need a ‘when’ qualifier, prewar the Kremlin believed by all accounts that Ukraine would not offer organized resistance and it would walk over like in 2014, the map Lukashenko let slip to the public shows the assumption of incorporating the whole of Ukraine and linking up with Transnistria, making it not so subtle who the next target would be
By the time you get to summer the goal was to push in Donetsk and Luhansk for more political reasons, remember Russian propaganda isn’t for the west, beyond demoralizing it, but for India, Iran, Pakistan, North Korea, and China, in an attempt to have support, which shows its working with the rumors of Chinese aid, obvious Iranian and NorK aid, and keeping India on side
When the Ukrainian counteroffensive began in Kharkiv, that’s when the annexations were planned, because in Russia conscripts cannot ‘legally’ be used outside the country, but by annexing these regions, Russian law considers them Russia, and thus you can deploy conscripts there, alongside the idea that ‘well we have it now, let’s begin the ethnic cleansing of the Ukrainian identity’, the UK MOD on Twitter talks in detail about this ‘Russification’ of the annexed territories
Right now the goal as we can tell is still to use pressure to destabilize and damage the global economy, which the west cares and is affected most by, to demoralize the west and pull the plug on aid to Ukraine, Ukrainian economy could not support the war effort in any capacity, its predicted to suffer a 35% drop in GDP this year, maintenance and specialists are found outside Ukraine for its western equipment, soviet equipment has been running out of spares and ammo since pre war, meanwhile the Russians continue to try to increase their strength and position, Russians still hold a qualitative advantage, despite the memes
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I said this in another video but again, I’m getting concerned at how much longer both sides are going to engage in this limited warfare, limited how? Limited to the occupied territory in Ukraine and the frontline, if Ukraine genuinely gets to the point where they don’t believe they can crack the front…then they may feel cornered into expanding the war against Russia in Russia, or perhaps Belarus to keep pressuring Russia, as they’d be quick to point out, Russia can and did invade from all across the border with Ukraine and through Belarus, so why can’t they? This would risk significant geopolitical backlash, but without an alternative military solution, there would be little other choice.
At the same time the Russians are stuck, their offensives may gain ground in a Great War calculation, but they don’t have the resources to continue doing that, and there’s no evidence (objectively, what goes on in the Kremlin doesn’t require objectivity) that Ukraine will capitulate, without western withdrawal, which is highly unlikely, if Russia gets to the point where the line is fortified all around to Donbas levels during the ‘interwar’ times, which were so fortified that for months little to no front movement happened there, they may feel confident to redeploy most troops, maybe leave the separatists and newly deployed forces to gain experience in the south, and try again in Belarus, in the north, in the east, what can Ukraine do about it? Nothing, not without invading or attacking targets inside Russia or Belarus…which just further risks total escalation into classical warfare
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