Comments by "MrEkzotic" (@MrEkzotic) on "'GROSSLY INCOMPETENT': Trump takes a jab at Biden during NH campaign stop" video.
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Here's the reality of Biden's "great" economy:
First, the BLS reported an increase inĀ nonfarm payrolls of 216,000 in December, which beat Wall Streetās expectations. But that increase comes on the heels of November and October being revised down by 71,000 payrolls. One-third of the jobs allegedly added in December were ones we thought we already had.
That also means Decemberās report didnāt beat expectations but missed them. And those downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls happened for every other month in 2023 except for July. Those changes, combined with a sizeable drop from the annual benchmark revision, effectively revised away about a quarter of all the jobs initially believed to have been added last year.
The second red flag is the unemployment rate. At first glance, a steady rate of 3.7% sounds great, but it wasnāt in December. The rate stayed low because about 680,000 people left the workforce and were no longer counted as unemployed. The labor force participation rate fell all the way back to where it was in February.
In fact,Ā labor participation has never recoveredĀ to its pre-pandemic trend following the government-imposed shutdowns. Depending on which methodology one prefers, the economy is missing between 4.8 million and 6.8 million workers. Accounting for their absence yields a true unemployment rate between 6.4% and 7.5%.
Third on the list is the kinds of jobs being created: theyāre all part-time. Last month, the economy shed a whopping 1.5 million full-time jobs, the biggest monthly plunge since 2020 when the government made it illegal for people to go to work. That wiped out essentially all the full-time jobs that had been gained in 2023.
December continued the trend of people with full-time jobs having to add a part-time job to their work schedule, as they tried to make ends meet. That rocketed the number of multiple-job holders to a new record high of 8.6 million. This is important to know because every time someone gets anĀ additional job on top of their first job, itās counted as an additional payroll.
Thatās how the number of "jobs" can rise without increasing the number of people employed. The BLS survey of households confirms this, showing roughly no additional people were employed in December versus half a year earlier in July.Ā
Fourth, the supposed job growth last month was disproportionately government jobs, accounting for about one-quarter of the total. Thatās troubling because you need many private-sector jobs to support a single government one through tax revenue, and a three-to-one ratio is insufficient. This is simply untenable.
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Here's the reality:
_____________
First, the BLS reported an increase in nonfarm payrolls of 216,000 in December, which beat Wall Streetās expectations. But that increase comes on the heels of November and October being revised down by 71,000 payrolls. One-third of the jobs allegedly added in December were ones we thought we already had.
That also means Decemberās report didnāt beat expectations but missed them. And those downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls happened for every other month in 2023 except for July. Those changes, combined with a sizeable drop from the annual benchmark revision, effectively revised away about a quarter of all the jobs initially believed to have been added last year.
The second red flag is the unemployment rate. At first glance, a steady rate of 3.7% sounds great, but it wasnāt in December. The rate stayed low because about 680,000 people left the workforce and were no longer counted as unemployed. The labor force participation rate fell all the way back to where it was in February.
In fact, labor participation has never recovered to its pre-pandemic trend following the government-imposed shutdowns. Depending on which methodology one prefers, the economy is missing between 4.8 million and 6.8 million workers. Accounting for their absence yields a true unemployment rate between 6.4% and 7.5%.
Third on the list is the kinds of jobs being created: theyāre all part-time. Last month, the economy shed a whopping 1.5 million full-time jobs, the biggest monthly plunge since 2020 when the government made it illegal for people to go to work. That wiped out essentially all the full-time jobs that had been gained in 2023.
December continued the trend of people with full-time jobs having to add a part-time job to their work schedule, as they tried to make ends meet. That rocketed the number of multiple-job holders to a new record high of 8.6 million. This is important to know because every time someone gets an additional job on top of their first job, itās counted as an additional payroll.
Thatās how the number of "jobs" can rise without increasing the number of people employed. The BLS survey of households confirms this, showing roughly no additional people were employed in December versus half a year earlier in July.
Fourth, the supposed job growth last month was disproportionately government jobs, accounting for about one-quarter of the total. Thatās troubling because you need many private-sector jobs to support a single government one through tax revenue, and a three-to-one ratio is insufficient. This is simply untenable.
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