Youtube comments of (@FutureAZA).
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Thanks for all that. I agree with you, though my wife and kids may not. What can I say, they're a tough crowd.
The SNL thing is what I really didn't get. If they're so "anti-whatever-he-is" why would they have asked him (a non-actor, non-comedian) to host and given him such softball skits? SNL is as close to middle of the road as possible, by design, and if they wanted him to look like a robber baron, they could have easily done so. Yet the closest we got was a dashing Wario.
You can't say the Bee is at a 6.5 toward a perfect 10 on the Conservative spectrum when they literally ask you to accept Christ as their final, mic-drop, end of show finale.
Elon handled it well. Waffled a bit, remembered who the audience was, and said "Yeah, sure, why not" to appease the zealots.
What a slimy way to ambush your guests. These guys do not walk with Christ. They are no more virtuous than televangelists. They abuse their positions as providers of kind lies to bilk the masses and it's shameful.
... went off a bit there, didn't I?
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Lucid never called themselves a Tesla killer, or like Tesla but better... and also, there isn't enough factory footage from Lucid to actually do the work. :(
I actually believe in Lucid. While I think their 2012-Tesla-style approach is going to be difficult in the current EV environment, I don't know what a better path forward would be. I respect their apparent honesty and I understand their plan. Nikola, however, was founded as a fraud and now that Trevor is gone the new management is trying to find a path to the future, but I just can't imagine there is one.
And also, there's an absolute gaggle of angry, hateful investors who were duped by a YouTube investment "guru" in Korea who convinced them to pour their money into Nikola. Whenever I mention Nikola, they flood in with sheer rage, but I track their comments back and see that most of that guy's subscribers admit to having lost a fortune on Nikola. These are honest folks who've been hoodwinked, and the more they know, the more likely they are to make the best decisions for themselves.
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Freaking WHAT?!? COLA is already included, so inflation is mitigated. The members CAN NOT vote on the agreement until Shawn lets them. He is the ONLY one holding any cards. The workers are entirely at his mercy, and his objective is to boost himself, not anyone else.
The $500/week is bankrupting workers. The UAW launched the strike with almost a billion in the bank, and they're not striking company-wide. They can afford more, but I guess I care more about workers than some people.
The "record profit" is on internal combustion cars, which are already being phased out worldwide. They lose money on EVs and this is making it worse. If someone can't live on $84k per person in Michigan, they don't need a raise, they need basic financial literacy courses.
If workers believe in their products, they should demand stock. If they don't want to own a piece of the company, that tells me they don't believe in it.
This is an unmitigated disaster. Anyone who still supports Fain after this will watch in confusion as the Midwest manufacturing powerhouse continues to falter.
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I get that you're playing a character here who can only be described a whole dumbass, but you need to keep the silliness to a believable level.
There is only one EV on the market that has a transmission, and it's the Taycan. There is NO regular maintenance on an EV, and besides not having oil changes or any of that nonsense, the brakes last 2-3x longer due to regenerative braking.
If you actually watched the video before spouting off molten cuckoo live a volcano of crazy, Karen, you'd know that your claim about battery degradation is pants-on-head stupid, because if a battery loses more than 30% of it's capacity over 8 years and 100,000 miles, (or longer in many states,) you get a new one FOR FREE.
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Oh man, that's a big ask. I will think about it, but no guarantees. You and I find value in such exercises (like when I counted worker cars, porta-potties, giga-castings, etc,) but they take a lot of hours and result in very low traffic since everyone on social media just posts the final number rather than sending folks over to watch, subscribe, or support.
What's crazy to me is to see how many publications have used my numbers without so much as saying the name of the channel. I wasn't expecting to get hired or be invited on as an expert guest, though I'm abundantly qualified for either, but at least a link or a mention of where the information came from would have been... something?
/rant
;)
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It's truly impossible to know. The foundations look sufficient for a gigacasting, though they've already got two spots for that on-site, and both are much bigger. The building strikes me as too small for battery production, but we don't yet know the full efficiencies of the Road Runner line, so it could be. Then there's the massive spans, which are curious, and lead me to think MAYBE it's GigaCasting, but in a whole separate building like that? No way. I just don't know.
I'm reasonably confident it isn't offices, because it would be way overbuilt for that in terms of structural integrity.
Thanks for sharing your ideas on it, sorry mine aren't more helpful. I usually have pretty good ideas, but this building is a head scratcher to me.
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I've literally never shared my politics on this channel, and routinely shut down those trying to politicize it. Technology itself has no political leaning. This interview was not political, and my response to it wasn't either.
Not so much Elon, but a lot of the people using "woke" as an insult are looking for a justification for being awful people. It's used in response to people who bash folks of different religions or demographics, or highlight systemic inequalities. Better funding for urban schools and a move to lower pollution are frequently called woke, but those are just good policies.
I think Elon is referring to it from the perspective of being attacked simply because he's rich. I entirely agree that those attacks are without merit, and the fury surrounding how he got there generally relies on red meat rage and outright lies. Bashing Elon for the success of his companies is ridiculous, and I believe that's what he's referring to.
The anger on this video is because I called out the Bee for their lazy, lackluster, wasted opportunity. The Bee is first and foremost a religious organization, followed by a partisan one, with humor reserved for third place, while the first two priorities are immutable. Uncompromising humor is fantastic. That's not what they do. At one point they even made a joke about Answers in Genesis not liking Elon's comment that the earth is older than 6,000 years, but THEY CUT THEIR OWN MIC for it because, again, comedy is not their objective and they dare not upset the young earth creationists. That's a big part of their audience, apparently.
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Hey Clarence. I have not heard anything about EMP protection, and I would bet money they are not including it, because hardening electronics against that is very difficult and costly.
It's not just a binary situation, but against what level of EMP? A nuke puts off 30-50k volts/meter, but it falls off according to the inverse square law, so if something (a car, phone, etc,) is hardened against it, to how many volts?
Many of the hardened electronics bought by military will fail if they're too close, and many consumer grade products with no protection will be unaffected (or minimally affected) at a reasonable distance.
Hope this helps.
And FYI, Now You Know doesn't write back to me either, but I still think they're pretty awesome. :/
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The sheer anger was a bit unexpected, but the biggest backlash was from the Babylon Bee video. The literal threats of harm to me and my family forced me to shelve the remainder of that series, even though it was already recorded and mostly edited.
What's disappointing is that this video, which is hopeful, factual and as well put together as anything on the channel, has absolutely fizzled. The small number of viewers seem to like it, but it's just not getting views. The channel is just too small to put outsized efforts into topics that don't resonate with viewers, no matter how passionately I feel about them.
The Tesla Bot video is already written, and it's too good not to finish. So that's still going to happen, but we'll see if it's the second, or the final installment. :|
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Thanks for the kind words. Berlin is trickier because we don't have a solid understanding of what the factory will cost, nor what it's actual capacity is. It's substantially bigger than Shanghai, so I would expect the fully ramped production to be double that of Shanghai's first phase, but I would also expect the price to be at least double, as in $4B.
It's further complicated by the fact that they'll be starting with the Model Y instead of the Model 3, so it's a higher priced model, and with the structural 4680 battery pack, the cost may wind up being lower, with a higher profit per unit.
I can run these numbers next year once we start seeing what the factory actually costs, what it's capable of, and what the profit margins look like. Back of the napkin math at this point says it would likewise be about a year to 18-months to pay for itself, before taxes.
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I ran some numbers on another reply, but you're right. Let me paste them here too.
You can swap 15 batteries in an hour, but can you also charge 15 batteries in an hour? If each station only has one stall for the swap, that 4-minutes is slower than a charging station that takes 30-minutes, but has 8 open stalls.
This would work great on off-peak times, but over a busy holiday travel weekend, 4 cars ahead of you means it would be quicker to just fast-charge somewhere else.
They already had 1,200 swap stations as of last year, with another 1,000 announced, plus whatever number was built in between.
At a minimum, that's 2,200 locations with 21 batteries on stand-by, so 46,000 spare batteries. That's $500m-1b in capital tied up for very limited benefit, and 46,000 cars they can't build.
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A factory doesn't need to be 100% utilized to be complete. Tesla didn't use the vast majority of the Fremont factory during their first seven years of ownership, but you'd be hard pressed to argue it wasn't a complete factory.
Completion is a moving target. You could argue that Shanghai still isn't finished since construction is still underway, but you have to choose benchmarks to have a tracker at all.
When the tracker first launched, the scale of Giga Texas was smaller than what we now see. The design keeps changing. The scope keeps expanding.
And like others have said, it would be dishonest to change the math this late in the game to fit a narrative. The objective is to create better metrics for the next one and allow a buffer for variables that are more difficult to anticipate, like bureaucracy, weather, and design creep.
The bottom line is they began producing cars in December, which is in line with many of the predictions along the way. At some point you have to call it done, even though Tesla factories are constantly under construction and expansion.
I've asked viewers for benchmarks for completion many times in the past, and very few have suggested it has to look "pretty" to be complete.
As we inch closer to the 100% mark, which will be mid-March, it will look increasingly nicer, but it will never be finished.
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@Mark Holland They already had 1,200 swap stations as of last year, with another 1,000 announced, plus whatever number was built in between.
At a minimum, that's 2,200 locations with 21 batteries on stand-by, so 46,000 spare batteries. That's $500m-1b in capital tied up for very limited benefit, and 46,000 cars they can't build.
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Ha ha, thanks! And while I do go the extra mile for effort, YouTube tends to be a lagging indicator for quality, and they still have almost entire control over how many of you clever robots see my stuff. Can't get subscribers if no one sees your stuff, and no one will see your stuff until you have more subscribers. Still, it is growing nicely, so thanks for being here!
I think there are two reasons Nevada isn't growing. The first is that their tech has improved so rapidly, they no longer need nearly as much space to produce the capacity needed to feed the production, but the second one is harder to ignore... they're out of talent. Reno is a very small market and they already employ thousands of employees. The amount of qualified, competent staff you can find in a market like that is limited, and it's entirely possible that they've already capped out.
A lot of us won't relocate to the desert just for a job, even if it's for a company we love to our very core, like Tesla.
Stick around, my friend. I've got a Patreon-requested CyberTruck video coming up in the next day or two that might be pretty interesting to a few folks. ;)
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Depends on the final price. A Corolla has a lot more utility, so I'm not sure it's a fair comparison, but if we're just looking at economics, 150,000 miles in a Corolla is likely to run $15,000 in gas plus another $1,500 in oil changes. At $21-26k, it's not the bargain it used to be, but it's also a lot more car than it used to be.
Unless you meant a used Corolla, then it's tough to say. ICE cars are likely to depreciate quicker than EVs in coming years, so there may be some nice discounts available in the 2nd hand market.
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You're scared and I get it, but no amount of magical thinking or attacking the messenger is going to fix their terrible road map.
I was right about Arcimoto, Lucid, Nikola, and Vinfast, but sure, this is the ONE time I'm wrong.
You're obviously not a regular, so I'll save you some time. My analyses are highly respected because I always cut through the PR and hype. I stick to the facts, even when I don't like them, which frees me up to say unpopular things, sometimes to some really nasty people.
You're free to dislike me, but if you dislike objective reality, your opinion is meaningless.
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It's a great question. The problem you're getting at is valid, that we don't KNOW what engineering obstacles remain.
The structural battery pack is a solved problem, since they're already introducing it for Texas made Model Ys.
The biggest-ever front/rear castings are likely solved as well, but if not, they could substitute a joined pair like they did on the rear of early Model Ys.
The added tech, which as far as I can see is just the rear steering, could be put off for later builds just to get it into production. I don't see this impacting early demand. I know very few truck owners who would want this, let alone be willing to pay extra for it.
This leaves the origami stainless shell. Sandy Munro doesn't consider this a likely obstacle, describing it as only an engineering problem, and one that can be solved with existing methods and technology. I think of it like a factory that makes custom sandwiches. That doesn't exist today, but it can. You'd need some new methods and software, but all the pieces exist. You'd just need to get them all together. There's no reason it can't, it just hasn't, and it can take some time to iron out the wrinkles.
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I read your comment four days ago and wrote a reply that took way too long, got way too involved, and took way too much research. No biggy, I'll just whip out a quick video about it. Easy peasy, right?
I grossly underestimate the amount of work it would take to competently respond, but I feel like the end result was well worth the journey.
All your points are valid, and only "wrong" in the same way mine are, which is that we don't know what we can't know, and are largely left guessing.
We'll know more as the month go by, but whichever way this goes, I'm giddy to watch it unfold.
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Don't be a clown. Last week you dips were telling me I was paid to hate the Big-3. I know you have to have a mind before you can make it up, but at least pretend to think things through before interrupting the adults.
Executive pay isn't negotiated by the union, and the union has never requested otherwise. You know that terrible contract you have now? The UAW gave you that. All your complaints have only one thing in common, and it's the UAW's failure to do anything but enrich themselves at YOUR expense.
Yet here you are attacking a stranger over it. The longer your strike drags on, the better my stocks perform. You'd think I'd want it to continue, but I don't, because I'm not a ghoulish jackal hell-bent on seeing others suffer for a tiny bit of self-enrichment.
You bitter, angry, aggressive monsters get harder to defend by the day, but I still haven't stopped supporting you. I mean you personally, no, you can take a hike, but the workers more generally. I won't let your decision to lash out in a fit of childish rage color my opinion of your coworkers. I've known too many UAW members to think of them as being anything like you.
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The tone IS better this time. The last one was the one-year anniversary 10 months ago, and I was having a tough time because revenue was so much lower that I was burning through my savings at a rate that left me little runway.
There were no visible catalysts on the horizon. I'd reached out to about a dozen YouTubers (many of whom I'd talked with before the channel,) for collaborations or interviews or anything at all, and they just never responded. Small channels get lost in the mix. I've since gotten confirmation that many of them just never saw them, and others saw them and chose not to respond. A lot of them are still doing that.
In October of '21 I was still 4-months from my ambush interview with Sandy Munro that finally earned me the cred to secure quality guests. I'd visited a bunch of factories, but had yet to be let inside of one apart from Arcimoto, and even then they set me up with a salesman rather than an engineer or executive.
Today, while things are still challenging, I've finally earned a modicum of respect from my peers, recognition from experts outside of YouTube, and the path forward looks promising, however difficult it may be. There is light at the end of the tunnel, and I'm finally confident that it isn't a freight train.
Thank you for being with me so long. It's you, man. You're the reason I'm able to get through the tough months to get to the good ones. Thank you for that.
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You don't have to wonder, you can just ask. No one I've ever met or even heard of gets any financial compensation from Tesla. Not even in an indirect way like all expense paid trips to see new cars or other products.
It's even more extreme than that though. Very few of us even get in to these events. Apart from Cyber Rodeo (which had attendance of 20,000) most YouTubers don't get in to most events. Literally zero got in to the Semi Delivery event in Nevada, including a few who had tickets that were revoked.
Despite years of effort, I've never heard from anyone at Tesla corporate, and never seen the inside of a factory. I've been to Giga Texas twice, Giga Nevada twice, and Fremont, but I've never been allowed past the security gate.
We make these channels because we're all passionate about the company, and when we share our passions, viewers show up to watch what we have to offer. I've never seen a company with investors this engaged and knowledgeable about the finest details of how everything works and what it all means.
When I meet people at these events, they ask questions showing a curiosity and understanding deeper than nearly all of the analysts. It's a different company with a different kind of investors than anything I've ever seen. It's Apple times ten.
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A huge chunk of the equation comes down to what they're paying for power now. When researching this I found a lot of sites claiming rosey returns based on power rates very few consumers pay, and likely zero industrial customers pay.
One site said a single panel can produce 2kWh per day which would "save you $0.36 every single day!" That's 18-cents/kWh. Looks like Austin is under 9-cents kWh, so it's more like $0.18 per panel, per day.
If the panels are $200, that's about 3 years to break even, which is fantastic. Free money, baby. At $600/panel (don't know which they're using or what they pay) including installation, it becomes a 10-year prospect.
The fact that they face west instead of south suggests they're optimized for afternoon sunlight, likely because they have time-of-use pricing, and that's when the juice is sufficiently expensive that the lower generation will be offset by the higher cost during those hours. This may improve the numbers further.
If the breakeven is anywhere under 6-years, I imagine they'll jam as many on the roof as they possibly can. If it's over that, they might wait a year or two for panel prices to further decline.
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Okay! So I am currently uploading the 6-months "all sites, side-by-side" video, and per your request, I've included an overlay from satellite images to show the three sites at the same scale, on top of each other. This provided a great level of insight, so thank you for the suggestion.
Not sure what your expectation was in terms of sizes per site, but Shanghai Phase 1 was pretty dang small compared to Berlin & Texas, but comparing Texas to Brandenburg and Shanghai Phase 2 was a lot more interesting.
Forgive my absurdly slow internet connection. This video should be available in 3-4 hours (yes, for real, it's really that slow,) assuming all goes well. I may have a better internet connection on the way though. Rumor has it I recently got a StarLink beta invitation, and completed my purchase. These are just rumors though, so take them with a grain of salt. ;)
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Hey man, when I make mistakes, I fix 'em!
As for Tesla employees knowing about this channel, yes, they absolutely do, but it's the ground-level folks. Nobody in corporate knows I exist, or if they do, they must despise me for some reason, because my only experience with them (apart from the one time I got a +1 to a shareholder meeting,) was to be escorted off-site by security.
Yeah, I'll be moving the channel away from the Tesla name in the new year. It closes every door except for one, and the one door it should keep open, isn't. Not even remotely. They're the most hostile organization I've ever covered in my 23 years as a journalist, and I've been sued by Van Morrison.
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The US is big enough that flights are often the only way to connect some places, but Europe isn't much smaller than the US, and I've never needed a car to get into cities, around cities, between cities, or even between countries. It can be done, it's just very expensive to make it work in ways that people like us would consider meaningful.
Where I live, there's a pretty effective bus line through town, but it stops running before 7pm. If I want to take transit to the airport (a one hour drive) it would involve two buses, a train, and then another bus. It would also take about 3-hours, assuming everything goes to plan, which is a very big assumption.
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ONE car is not a reliable source of power for the grid, but a million cars is. It all comes down to averages. Anyone who works from home already has their car plugged in, so it can draw power at night, and feed it back in during the day when it's needed.
And we're not talking about the whole battery, but whatever portion of it you set aside. With an LFP pack, you charge it to 100% and tell the app you're willing to sell maybe 10% of it, that's no skin off your back. You still have a 90% charge if you need to (or want to) go somewhere.
10% of your charge likely wouldn't even register, but even at a markup of 50-cents/kWh (still cheaper than a peaker plant,) that's $2.50/day, or $912/year, or $7,300 over the course of the 8 year warranty. Bump it up to 30% of your battery and you're getting closer to "free car" territory, especially since you can still sell it at the end.
If only 20% of a million cars offers just 20% of their packs, that's a million kilowatts available. That's a whoooooole lotta juice, my friend.
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@thomasklein4265 Totally fair. Quick question: 118 years in business, how many EVs has Ford sold? Tesla's a noob with only a couple million, so Ford has to be at, what, 10x that? I mean, they sell millions of cars a year, so...
Good news, the full $7,500 EV tax rebate is still available on every EV Ford sells. You know, because they have yet to sell 200k in the US.
I kid. The reality is, and I'm sure you know this, being a competent vehicle manufacturer is very different from being a competent EV manufacturer. That's why GM has struggled so much, despite pouring billions into it. They're a very serious company, but EVs is not yet among their core competencies.
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That's the good news. Everything new is expensive out of the gate, but it quickly comes out to the mainstream.
Safety and efficiency innovations created in Formula One don't take long to get to the masses, even if none of us will ever drive an F1 car. I couldn't afford an iPhone when they first came out, and I still don't consider the latest one remotely affordable, but I can buy an older iPhone for cheap, and those early adopters made them more affordable for the rest of us.
Hyundai, VW, Tesla, and a bunch of Chinese EV makers are already working to create compelling entry level vehicles at prices at or below their 'splodey juice counterparts. Factor in the savings from not buying petrol/gas and you're way ahead of the game.
There are already a number of serious EVs priced below the national average for cars in the US, and while they won't work for every use case, they're quickly growing in popularity.
If your concern is that the national average of $43-49k for a new car is too high, I share that opinion. That's too damn much. But if someone is concerned is that $25k is STILL too high, they are not in the market for a new vehicle, but a second hand one, and will need to wait for prices to fall.
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Thanks for the feedback! The views have been decent, but nothing too earth shattering. The tone of the comments, however, has shifted dramatically, and it's not because the skeptics aren't watching it. I'm sure I'd get more comments if I was angry and insulting, but life's too short for that, and it really doesn't reflect my feelings on the matter.
I think there's room to be informative without being abrasive. It costs me nothing to be kind to the people lashing out, and it seems to be more effective than insulting them. You can't know what you don't know, I figure, and as long as I'm citing my responses, I figure I'm on the right track.
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This was requested a while back, and the more I looked into it, the less it made sense. The problem is that it would add confusion and uncertainty. The interior track is more about averages, and I suspect that if I started calling a square "fully counted" viewers would look for clues as to whether or not any particular section is genuinely at 100%, without considering that others hit 100% weeks or months ahead of time.
My math says completion around the end of December, and that's likely to slip significantly, since 100% can't be hit until months after the last wall goes up. Will work still be underway inside in January or February? Yeah, probably, but the way Tesla works, it's as likely to be undergoing constant change for years to come. We will start seeing models rolling off the line before my tracker says it's done, but that's because of the ocean of difference between "done" and "done enough".
Hope this makes sense.
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If you paid more than about $9/share, you didn't buy their current roadmap, but the wildly speculatively one Trevor Milton offered. If you've watched my videos, you know I believe in their vision, and regularly praise companies for the progress they make.
Nikola has no progress. They only have regress. They now offer fewer vehicles than any time since going public, have admitted they have no unique technology, and they're going to face an uphill battle. Their current share price does not yet reflect the reality.
If you're holding stock, be aware that there's still a LOT of downside potential, and while there MAY be upside potential, I can't see it. Can you? And no, "it's a good idea" doesn't count. Everyone has that idea. The question is if they can execute.
If someone has been telling you to buy NKLA, I would question why they did that.
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The stated objective remains 20M by 2030, so high factory utilization is critical. If each plant could only do a half million, they'd need 40 factories, and that would be nearly impossible to reasonably manage in terms of construction logistics.
At a million a factory, they'd need twenty, and we're only at four once these two come online. More reasonable, but adding another 16 by 2030 still looks desperately unlikely.
At 2M/factory, they only need another six. We expect two-ish to be announced within the next year, leaving only 4 more needed over the following 5ish years. Some of that would likely be addressed with expansion in Texas and/or Berlin.
Considering Shanghai is already close to a million run-rate, and Texas is a next-gen factory, I'd be awfully surprised to see capacity below 2M. The number of GigaPresses the factory is designed to hold in the existing space will support in excess of 2M units/year.
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Some of the biggest automotive markets will ban dino burner drivetrains by 2035. Toyota's costly R&D in hybrids will have been money entirely flushed down the drain.
The S-curve is not only evident, but mandatory. This transition has more to do with legislation than fandom. While ICE & Hybrids may be around in 20 years, they will not be sold in high dollar markets. There isn't a lot of profit to be had in Africa, and once there is, those buyers will also choose EVs because they already make sense, and the numbers get better every year.
While Toyota still makes of 4 of the top 5 models sold globally, the Model Y generates more profit than the other 4 combined. Model Y production is still ramping aggressively in Texas and Berlin, with manufacturing costs falling accordingly. They will have room to reduce retail prices due to efficiency gains and economies of scale, to say nothing of the new markets regularly being added. Model Y sales have not reached their peak just yet.
When the affordable Tesla compact is released, Toyota will find themselves in a pretty big pickle unless they have a comparable EV with which to compete, and a factory capable of producing them in substantial quantity. We have yet to see them suggest they've made a move in that direction, but time will tell. I hope they're finally able to read the writing on the wall, but they've been busy ignoring it for the last 10-15 years, and their Hybrid-heavy approach is every bit as likely to bite them in the ass.
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I think it really will be a matter of seeing is believing. For now, there is no electric truck you can get from any company at any price. In the next 2-3 years, we'll likely see Rivian, CyberTruck, Lightning, eHummer, and maybe another one or two.
Even under the most optimistic assumptions, these few models will not be anywhere close to satisfying total US pickup truck demand. If 90% of truck buyers refuse to get a CyberTruck, that still leaves 250,000 sales per year.
Like you, I don't believe CT will only capture 10% of the market. Can Tesla actually build more than 750 per day? Fremont makes 1,000ish each of Models Y and 3, but they're doing it on multiple production lines.
I believe they can hit 1,000/day of CyberTruck once fully ramped due in large part to the simplicity of the design. Front & rear casting eliminate hundreds of parts and steps. Single piece exoskeleton similarly reduces complexity. No time or bottleneck in the paint shop speeds things up further. The only constraint I see is battery supply, which they are clearly working to resolve already with the construction of a cell production area on site.
If this works out the way the engineers believe it can, these will be coming off the line faster than the Jeeps (GPs at the time) during WW2.
And if it fizzles after the first million sales, so be it. Tesla will be in a better position to make a more traditional truck than the competition due to what experts like Sandy Munro consider their sizable technology advantage.
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This is exactly it. Tesla sells every car they build, and almost always before they even build them, and as more factories come online, they'll sell that many more. Take the rampant factory expansion pace, which only VW seems interested in trying to match, plus the premium brand bonus, plus the fact that they aren't selling at a loss, and you've got an easy path forward.
If you buy a battery, you get a price. If you buy ten you get a better price, and so on towards the millions. NOBODY is buying more of EVERYTHING related to what Tesla builds than they are. Not only are they profitable today, but they will continue to reduce their manufacturing costs for the next ten years.
This isn't stopping any time soon and I'm just glad to be along for the ride.
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The whole market it down, but tech stocks especially. Elon sold oceans of Tesla stock over the past year, in part to cover his tax bill, and also to fund the Twitter acquisition. Both create a drag to some extent, but how much is unknowable.
His prolonged absences from Tesla this year while dealing with Twitter may have had an impact, but again, unknowable.
The bottom line is that SpaceX and Tesla are well oiled machines at this point, and they do not require the sort of do-or-die attention they've needed in the past. Elon feels Twitter needs that attention now, and I'm sure he's confident it will normalize in the not too distant future.
As I've said before, I think he'll be there for another 2-4 weeks, then head to Texas to focus on Starship for a while, then over to Giga Texas to get the CyberTruck launched. I think those would represent the best use of his focused energy, but only he can see how each project is progressing.
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Upon completion, the heavy rains won't be an issue. Tornados are quite another matter, but Austin isn't in "tornado alley". They do get the occasional twister, but they are rare, and not as powerful as in other places.
To follow this, earthquakes aren't a serious concern in Texas, and the site is high enough above the river that flooding is unlikely to be an issue unless the entire city is also flooded, which is very unlikely. There's enough clearing around the building that wildfires shouldn't be able to cause damage. Power outages can be an issue, as we learned from the deadly ice storm last year, but if anyone can manage onsite power solutions, it's Tesla.
Natural disasters are unlikely to be an issue at Giga Texas.
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They also think he got rich by exploiting his workers, crushing the competition, getting free government money, and ripping off customers.
1. His workers average over $104k/year at Tesla, and about the same at SpaceX, so that ain't it.
2. The competition used to own big chunks of Tesla, but exited their positions while knowing exactly what Tesla is up to, so that ain't it.
3. The "free money" claim drives me batty enough I've made videos about it. No, no, and no. Buyers got the same EV incentives available on every car, and prices have gone up since they went away. SpaceX gets money because they're the best AND cheapest option, meaning the government saves money. And the half-billion DOE loan was paid back early, with interest, and a pre-payment penalty. The handful of millions on other fronts came with massive strings attached, and could not have made him a billionaire.
4. Customers seem happier with their Teslas than with other cars they buy, and SpaceX is the best deal in the world in launch services. Regrets are few.
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That's the big thing. If the shifting regulations meant every car was a compliance car, people would hate it. It isn't though, they're actually more fun to drive.
I'm old enough to remember people saying emissions and fuel economy standards meant the end of muscle cars, but that was only briefly true in the early 80s until the tech improved. My minivan has almost as much horsepower as my Lexus SC 300 from the 90s. It also gets better gas mileage, despite being almost 1,000 pounds heavier.
Same with EVs. The Leaf, Bolt, and other early (non-Tesla) EVs were expensive and uninspiring. We're past that now. Bolts and Leafs may still be boring, but they're more affordable, and truly fun cars can be had for less than the average price of new cars ($43k as of January, according to Kelly Blue Book.)
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@kingcarlobossio7067 No, it's an abundance of caution. The concerns are known and valid, their ad agency sought clarification to offer peace of mind, and no assurances were made.
We don't know what the coming months will look like. Elon has the best idea of anyone, and when asked, the answer he gave led advertisers to pause their spending.
They'll be back. The investors are not looking for a one-week return on their investment. Normally a business tries to grow first, and then make demands later, but Elon's been so good at delivering in the past that promises usually come true, even if they do so a bit late.
When it comes to breakfast cereal, they don't want the PR headache that comes with accidentally showing up alongside objectively vile content, which the trolls provided in spades since the handoff.
Pfizer has no morality. They're pure business and they're weighing the risks. If zoom out and look at it in that light, it's understandable.
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I've never owned a vehicle of any type that could do 500-miles without a stop. They exist, but they're rare, and few buyers have a reason to seek them out.
I'm like most drivers where, after 4 hours, I want to use the bathroom, grab food, and stretch my legs before getting back on the road. Unlike gas, you don't have to stand there and babysit the pump, so those first 5 minutes don't really count against it. It's an extra 15-minutes to get you enough juice to finish your whole day of driving.
I'm road tripping 1,000 miles to San Luis Obispo with Herbert from Brighter w/ Herbert later this month. We're taking his Model 3, and looking forward to it. Maybe I'll make a video about it.
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24mpg combined EPA rating when new. It's likely below that now. A low-end driver is doing 10,000 miles a year, so you're paying $1,666/yr in gas at $4/gallon average.
Average US power rate is 16.1-cents/kWh, so a much bigger, safer, nicer Model 3 would run you $402/year.
Your fueling cost is $1,267 more a year, or $12,670 over ten years.
That doesn't sound cheap to me, to say nothing of the difference in safety and overall experience.
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There's a headspace limit you reach when building out factories. We know they can manage two, but we don't know the effective maximum.
Berlin is likely to break ground on Phase 2 in coming months, which absolutely counts as one of the factories, plus Mexico. I expect an announcement for a whole new location/market by the end of the year. That would be 3 factories, though one could be argued as an expansion of an existing factory.
Phase 1 of Berlin will have a capacity in excess of 750k, and Phase 2 will likely be larger, and building a simpler vehicle. I see 2 million in Berlin as the floor.
Texas is adding 2 more Model Y lines, that will get them to 750k as well, plus the Cybertruck, which I see at an easy half million.
My low end thinking looks like this:
- .5m Fremont as it stands
- 1m Shanghai already
- 2m Berlin after expansion
- 1.5m Texas including Y & CT
- 2m Nueva Leon
That's already 8m from plans we know about. Add even one more factory building a compact model and they'll be the biggest automaker in the world.
The path to doubling that gets more complicated, and would require another 4 very big factories at a minimum.
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Oh wow, great job! For those of us actually following it, there were plenty of signs that the stock was undervalued. I made my investment without consideration for CyberTruck or Autonomy. I based my valuation strictly on the strength of Fremont (which I figured was already priced in,) and the progress I could see in the weekly drone footage coming out of Shanghai.
I figured that Fremont + Shanghai (just phase one,) would double my money in 5-10 years, which was better than what I had been getting in my IRA. I had no idea how nuts things were about to get, and if you'd have PROMISED me it would be at $800 today, I'd have been skeptical. And if you'd have said that would be after a 5:1 split (or a 4/20 split, if you're cheeky,) I just wouldn't have believed you.
I think your price targets are reasonable, and I'm cautiously optimistic.
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It's tough to say, since it would be a different car. You could just make the floor another 6"-8" higher, though that wouldn't be ideal for some buyers.
Just stuffing in a bigger battery would change the shape of the car and if it isn't cutting into the cabin, it would eliminate a lot of cargo space. Performance would be significantly impacted due to all the extra weight, and of course the price would be a lot higher too. An extra $15k is my estimate.
I imagine they've run the numbers on what the market would be for a car like this, as every manufacturer has. It sounds like an easy market advantage for someone looking to bite into Tesla's sales. If it was a clear cut sales winner, surely Hyundai, VW, BYD, or someone would have a model like that.
Then they'd also take twice as long to charge. Not as big of a deal at home, but a lot less convenient at the kind of public station you'd be likely to use while making a road trip where a pack that size would really come in handy.
I'm sure we'll see them soon enough. Maybe not in the next few years, but I can't imagine we'll have to wait more than ten to get something like that.
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No problem, Mr. Merwood. When it comes to footage inside the factories, you can find nearly all of them on Tesla's own YouTube channel, though some of them are on their China or Germany channels. You'll see the same footage across tons of our channels because it's the best (and only) B-Roll that's available. Tesla COULD choose to take them down via copyright, but like nearly every auto manufacturer, they don't. Like you said, we're advertising on their behalf.
When they were small, they let all kinds of YouTubers into events. I was one of only two content producers who went to Texas but didn't get into the massive Cyber Rodeo last year. At the recent Investor Day, there were about 3 channels that managed to get in, to the exclusion of the other 2-3 dozen of us in town for it.
It's pretty frustrating for me as a long-time fan an investor, but maddening as a content producer with more than 600 videos since 2020 showing all the amazing things they do. I've covered other companies in my career, and I've never encountered one so averse to supporting those with an audience as Tesla.
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Good question! Short answer is I don't. The calculation is based on 4-months from the time the walls go up in any particular area. This was the best estimate available when I started the tracker, and was based on the rate of interior progress at Giga Shanghai.
While land user permits can add all kinds of unexpected delays, once the structure is complete, there usually isn't the same potential for delay. Giga Berlin has shown this to not always be true, but Giga Berlin can still be basically done while sitting around waiting for final permitting.
In some areas, the interior is surely overcounted, like in the SW section where there are walls, but very little going on inside beyond floors and sprinklers. But in other areas, like the Body In White and Paint Shop, they already had substantial amounts of equipment installed well in advance of the walls. In those areas, it was surely undercounted. The hope is that those two average out over the entirety of the building.
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If you look at the crash of 2008 you'll see premium auto makers like Lexus, BMW, and Mercedes indeed had lower sales, but not catastrophically so. Think 10-15% declines, or about 40-50k units in total at maximum.
Your assumption is flawed on a couple fronts. It ignores the value buyers who would spend more to avoid high maintenance and fuel bills, which we know is a very real consideration. It also pretends that demand is already near equilibrium.
When the 2008 recession hit, those other brands had already reached stable production and delivery levels. They would fluctuate 5-10% a year, but if you wanted to buy one, you could just head down to the dealership and pick one up the same day.
As of September 30th, the backlog for Fremont was 190,000 cars, with Berlin's backlog at 108,000 cars.
If global demand drops 15% (never before seen in a single quarter,) Tesla will still have substantially more orders than they can fill in Q4.
In 2023 the picture changes entirely as the EV credit takes effect, which will reduce buyer costs, as well as producer costs.
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The other leading candidate being discussed is India, which graduates 1.5 million engineers each year from their 6,000+ engineering colleges. The 38 universities in Saudi Arabia are not even a rounding error in comparison. I've done the research. It's a country that doesn't yet have a compelling reason to build a car factory.
For a country to make the short list for the construction of an advanced manufacturing facility, they need to check off a LOT of the boxes.
You're going to want to pick a country that has experience building cars, a large domestic automotive market, abundant labor, an established supply chain, and free trade agreements that open new markets. SA is working to establish free trade with 11 countries at this time for export of manufactured goods, but other countries already have them established.
The Kingdom is working hard to transform to a post-oil economic powerhouse, but this partnership is not ready for primetime. There are a whole lot of moving pieces needed to make a factory work, and they need to be established first.
I've conducted in-depth evaluation of 40 countries for potential factory placement, and none of the gulf states even rose to the level of consideration because they do not yet meet the minimum criteria for consideration based on Tesla's established guidelines for localization.
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Not to worry. Your comments are about a whole, massive, separate topic. If I were to tackle it, I probably wouldn't use your comments (no offense,) but bring on a dealer to offer that side in real time.
I will answer about the initial quality thing though. I've rented a number of Fords over the years, and always found them to be great. That's even considering the people who rented them before me likely beat the hell out of them.
Initial quality fades. Any car company will fix a factory defect, but once it's out of warranty, you're (almost always) on your own. My F150 was a beast and it served me well. My mom's Probe was terrible. My buddy's Taurus was great, but his dad's Mustang was nothing but headaches. All of them did great for the first 3 years.
I feel like Ford's enterprise/fleet vehicles (F-series, Explorer, and Crown Vic) were all built to a higher standard than the passenger vehicles.
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It's so great. You just plug in your destination, no matter how far away it is, and the car tells you everything. Where to stop, suggests alternatives, how long you have to be there, how soon you can go, reroutes if you decide to charge longer or leave early, it's just so painless.
When I was a travel writer working in Montana, there was very real range anxiety in my gas-powered Chevy Venture. You'd realize you're under a quarter tank and start looking at offramps, and they'd all say "No services this exit" and then you find one that doesn't say it, and there's still no services, or at least none you can find.
Never had that experience in the Model Y.
It will warn you if you're driving into a dead zone where charging availability is unknown.
Thanks for sharing your story!
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The emerald mine story doesn't appear real. The only source of it is an interview with Errol Musk, a notorious blowhard, and Business Insider quoted him without even asking so much as a followup to help verify the claim. Other journalists have attempted to validate the story, but haven't been able to find any paper trail that offers support, nor any contemporaneous account. Errol Musk is still alive. If the claim is anything other than pure fiction, it would be effortless for him to provide the details needed to get to the bottom of it, but he won't.
If his family was as wealthy as his father would like everyone to believe, the only advantage it appears to have given him was access to a home computer, since he left with only about a month of survival money, and any connections his family might have had in Africa were of no use in Canada or the US. Plenty of rich Americans got their start because they got into a school they didn't qualify for, had their parents pay for it, then used their parents money and/or connections to create something that got big. Elon did not enjoy such advantages.
A rich upbringing in Pretoria at the time might not have looked noticeably better than a middle class upbringing in the West.
I want to make a part three to this series using complaints from viewers, but this persistent myth feels better suited to its own standalone video.
I would clarify that there is no idol worship from me. It's his companies and the accomplishments of his engineers and executives that make me so passionate about their projects and products. Watching a Falcon Heavy execute a dual landing fills me with inspiration. Elon's just the guy in charge.
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@benhinchliffe7696 I appreciate your perspective, and thank you for sharing at such length.
My investment philosophy is that I'm not a gambler, and I don't pretend to know better than the billionaire fund managers. I've outperformed them, but not because I'm a genius, but because I only follow a very small number of companies, and I follow them VERY closely.
I got gainz on an under-valued stock. To pretend I know better than everyone that it's going to continue rising is beyond my scope of confidence.
If you're certain it's going to 5-10x in a matter of years, you'd be wise to leverage every last dollar you can to invest. Mortgage your house if you must, but a loan on your paid off used car, whatever you must. It's free money, after all.
I have confidence in their ability to execute, but that doesn't always translate to share price and market value. They could do everything right for the next ten years and not see the stock double. The market isn't rational.
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There are new EVs that cost less than comparable gas cars already. If you're talking about the higher price of 2nd hand EVs, that may be because the model you're looking at holds its value in ways gas cars typically don't.
The days of it being a rich mans toy have passed. Affordable EVs are already here even before counting the outrageous cost of gas. My van was $35,000 new and ran 96,000 miles, which is about 4,800 gallons of gas. That's about $19,000 in gas, vs $2,400 an EV would cost. Add in 20 oil changes at $50 each for another $1,000. The van cost $55,000 to operate.
My Model Y cost $52k, meaning this much newer, much nicer vehicle costs less than the 2016 Nissan Quest without even factoring in inflation.
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Then why do they have them in Germany and China? On the scale of a multinational corporation, it's cheap, and it's effective.
There is no one alive outside of Tesla who knows more about the factory in Austin, but I was unable to see it during the CyberRodeo because Elon gets a k'jillion spam messages on Twitter daily, and he has no idea I even exist.
Does this impact my coverage? 100% yes. I had the option to go down to hype the earnings call this week, but I wasn't going to go to yet another event I couldn't get into. I've been to Giga Nevada, Giga Texas during Cyber Rodeo, and the Fremont factory, and despite having made hundreds of videos, I've never set foot on any of the properties.
Would they get rosier coverage if I got in? Maybe, I have no idea. They'd definitely get MORE coverage if I was permitted to go, but again, they have literally no idea I even exist, despite covering Tesla as my profession for almost two years.
These jackwads need a PR department. Full stop.
Whether to combat the daily FUD, as outlined in this video, and in greater detail in the full broadcast, or just to get double or triple coverage from their most rabid fans.
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That was the worst, most dishonest nonsense I've come across in a long time.
The Model Y's battery is 77kWh, not 82kWh. He's assuming an average electricity price of 25-cents/kWh, while the US average is 14.4-cents. Already he's off by double. Then he benchmarks it against the 4-cylinder Rav-4, which is by far the least common engine used.
Then he says MOST buyers purchase FSD, which is off by 1,000%. Take rate is estimated to be lower than 10%. So he's comparing the specs of the most advanced tech ever offered, in a a car that could outrace any Supercar built built prior to 2004, against the slowest, most poorly equipped, least popular Rav-4.
Since he's looking at 2022 models, the abuse of math doesn't stop there. He compares MSRP on the Rav-4, which NOBODY GETS TO PAY due to dealer markups.
Then he's ignoring the residual value, which is pants-on-head stupid. Tesla has the highest resale value of any car on the market. If you bought a Rav-4 a few years ago, you could probably sell it for as much as you paid. If you bought a Tesla, you could sell it for MORE than you paid.
Scotty surely knows he's not being honest. This is a bad video.
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Tesla's first gross profit came on the sale of their first car. Every car they've ever sold was at a gross profit. They wanted to sell the Roadster for a whole lot less than they did, but refused to sell any single unit at a loss. Lucid sells every single car at a loss. That creates a perverse incentive where the only way to lose less money is to sell fewer cars.
Tesla's first NET profit took ages because they were reinvesting every penny (and then some) into R&D, factory construction, and all the other expenses that come with running a growing business. You can't hope to reach a net profit when every unit you move is sold at a loss.
When Lucid set out to build a better car, their idea was to build a more expensive car. When Tesla sets out to build a better car, they mean one that's at least as good, but costs less to build.
The first step Lucid needs to take is to get costs under control. My insiders say that is not being addressed. The clock is absolutely ticking, and they are not taking any of the MANY necessary steps.
They can still survive, but their current highest aspiration is to get the Gravity to market, and that market segment is not big enough to save them, even if they could capture 100% of it.
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@callmeishmael7452 Ah ha, gotcha! Okay, the flaw in your math is the assumption that it would have just as many pieces as required if you're using regular steel. You wouldn't. There would be vastly fewer to achieve the same objectives. Add to that the lack of 1,200lbs+ for a motor, transmission, transaxle, and steel frame.
If you look at the prototype, which is likely heavier than what the production model will be since the 4680 cells were not yet available, the tires show virtually no give under the weight. Sure, they are extremely heavy duty, but 12,000 pounds plus another 600-800 for the occupants, you'll expect SOME give at 3,000+ per tire.
Time will tell, but I'm confident in the numbers as presented. Thank you for sharing your thoughts on this, it was helpful for me to do the research for myself. :)
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What are you doing here, Craig? Your understanding of NHTSA rules is bewildering. It borders on performative, but it's hard to say for sure.
Tesla is not limited to 2,500. THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY is limited to 2,500, barring issuance of a waiver. Waivers have already been issued.
You think you know something that Cruise, Waymo, Tesla, Zoox, MobileEye, Comma AI, and ALL THE OTHER players haven't figured out? They'll be everywhere. Even you have to know that.
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Excellent suggestion, thank you for bringing something material to the discussion! I have experience with Scrum and tried using that early on, but found that without inside knowledge of what was actually being scheduled, it wasn't reaching meaningful outputs without the use of the same broad assumptions. The result was a much more complicated method of reaching the same conclusions.
From your suggestion, I'll address this in next week's update. The problem I see is that more data doesn't always produce different or better results. The fat cats on Wall Street are paid more in a month than a lot of Tesla YouTubers make all year, and despite their expertise and vastly more complicated methodologies, still come out with less accurate delivery and financial estimates than us. Garbage in, garbage out.
What I see is a fractal where as much as you zoom in, the pattern repeats, and even with an inside look we wouldn't be able to account for the biggest factors likely to impact the numbers, which are all the externalities. Berlin would be 2 months ahead if it weren't for the dual environmental and pandemic shutdowns. Texas would be further ahead if they stuck with their 3-Phase approach instead of doing them all at once.
So thank you again for this high quality comment. It is not only appreciated, but will improve the information I provide in future installments.
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Turkey was on my list of countries considered. It came in at 23, which sounds bad when you consider there were only 24 on the list, but it's actually not that bad. At least it's ON the list. Saudi Arabia, like all gulf states, were not even under consideration.
Turkey scored well for things like labor cost, tariffs, and likely political will, but took a beating on political stability, domestic resources, domestic auto sales, and domestic auto manufacturing.
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More of a Google question than one for here. I asked Grok:
People’s opinions of Elon Musk are polarizing, and the reasons some don’t like him vary widely depending on their perspectives. Here are some common themes based on public discourse:
Management Style and Labor Issues: Critics often point to his approach at companies like Tesla and SpaceX, where he’s been accused of pushing employees hard—sometimes too hard. Reports of intense work schedules, union-busting allegations at Tesla, and a no-nonsense attitude have rubbed some the wrong way, especially those who prioritize workers’ rights.
Twitter/X Changes: Since acquiring Twitter (now X) in 2022, Musk’s decisions—like reinstating controversial accounts, altering content moderation, and firing a big chunk of the workforce—have alienated users who liked the platform’s old vibe or who disagree with his free-speech absolutism. Some see it as a playground for his ego rather than a public good.
Public Persona: Musk’s brash, unfiltered communication—tweeting memes, picking fights, or making bold claims—can come off as arrogant or reckless to detractors. High-profile moments, like calling a diver in the Thai cave rescue a “pedo guy” or smoking weed on Joe Rogan’s podcast, have fueled perceptions of him as immature or unprofessional.
Wealth and Power: As one of the world’s richest people, Musk embodies inequality for some. His massive influence—shaping industries, markets (like with Tesla stock or Dogecoin), and even government contracts via SpaceX—makes him a lightning rod for those wary of unchecked billionaire clout.
Broken Promises: He’s known for ambitious timelines—like fully autonomous Teslas or Mars colonization—that don’t always pan out as promised. Skeptics call it hype; fans call it vision. Either way, the gap between his predictions and reality frustrates some.
Political Stances: Musk’s shift toward vocal conservative-leaning views in recent years—criticizing “woke” culture, supporting certain politicians, or railing against regulations—has turned off people who see him as pandering to a specific crowd or abandoning earlier progressive ideals tied to green tech.
On the flip side, his supporters love him for disrupting industries, pushing humanity forward (SpaceX’s reusable rockets, Tesla’s electric cars), and rejecting conventional norms. The dislike isn’t universal—context matters, and it often depends on what someone values or expects from a figure like him. What’s your take on him?
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Boring Tunnels are a case study in first principles design.
They are 70% cheaper because the diameter is smaller. They are 4" larger than what they use in London Tube tunnels. That diameter was similarly chosen for cost savings.
Your speed complaint is pretty far off base. The SR99 tunnel in Seattle took 5.5 years to go 2 miles at a cost of $3B. Vegas Loop was a pair of 1 mile tunnels completed in a year and a half for $55 million, and that was during the pandemic. At worst, this was 30x cheaper and 3x faster. You may not know this, but it's already been extended out to the first hotel on the Vegas Strip with tunneling continuing.
The safety factor is misunderstood. Tunnels have numerous escape stairways because the tunnels themselves are dangerous. They either have petrol fumes from a mess of unpredictable vehicles, or high voltage power throughout, all of which are deadly.
Boring tunnels have no third rail, no exhaust, and no unpredictable drivers. That's why the design was approved in the first place.
The Teslas presently used in the tunnels are not ideal for the application, but they don't need to be just yet. Tesla is already working on a RoboTaxi form factor, which presumably will be used in Boring applications.
The Boring Tunnel already meets project requirements as-is, both in terms of cost and capacity, so these improvements will further increase capacity and efficiency, while reducing operational costs.
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Wow, that is a thing of beauty. No real complaints, but as you know, the "perfect" comparison doesn't exist. Everyone can find some variable to make it look better or worse.
One factor I saw was "I can only use public chargers, and only during peak times!" That's rare, but I'm sure it happens. Even jacking up the $/kWh to what those chargers cost, it's STILL a savings, just not quite as big.
Another one is the EV Registration Surcharge, which is how states have begun to offset the loss of gas tax revenue. It's seldom higher than $200/year, which is about what you'd spend on oil changes anyhow. On the flipside is the lack of maintenance, but yeah, getting into the weeds a bit. EVs go through tires quicker? Sure, but that really depends on the driver.
Oh, I would caution the diesel numbers don't work. Diesel is more expensive because you get fewer gallons of it per barrel of oil. It is more energy dense, which also results in greater mileage per gallon. A quick look on Google suggest 25-30% more miles per gallon, which would bring the savings back in line with the other grades of fossil fuel.
Message me if you revise it because I may use this in a follow up video. (Not as a response to this message, I don't get notifications on those. It was pure luck that I found this.)
Also, thanks for the kind words!
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Rivian was unveiled in 2018, so if CyberTruck enters production this year (which is still a big "if") it will be around the same pace. The key difference between Rivian and Tesla is that almost 100% of Rivians focus was on their pickup. Tesla knows they can make tens of billions on Model Y demand, and that's easier to scale, so that's been their focus. I'm disappointed with this decision as a fan and consumer, but as a shareholder, I get it.
The electric F150 (before it got the name Lightning) was confirmed in January of 2019 11-months before the CyberTruck. If CyberTruck comes out by early next year, their pace will be comparable.
What matters more to me is how many units each will sell by 2025. The Rivian has SPECTACULAR reviews, but they have serious problems with cost control. If they can solve that as they scale, they'll take a nice fat bite out of ICE truck sales.
Ford is hoping to ramp Lightning production to about 15% of their truck fleet, but they have no clear path to securing enough materials for the batteries, and their ability to maintain the needed margins on non-ICE vehicles is uncertain.
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No. He owns an engineering firm that tears cars apart and analyzes every component all the way down to the type and number of the bolts, the precise alloy of the metals used, and what they're doing right and wrong.
Car companies pay his firm millions for a report on a car, and a typical report is many thousands of pages long. It includes what they did right, what they did wrong, and how it could have been built better.
His company has torn down a Model 3, Model Y, and now they're in the process of doing the Model S. They've also done this with VW, BMW, Ford, and many other cars, as well as aircraft, appliances, and almost anything that can be produced on an assembly line.
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Ha! Yes, I survived, and the improvement was unbelievable. This is easily a step-change, and it handled all the odd corner cases I threw at it. Only one left to try out, and will be shooting for a before & after video soon.
I got a notification on my phone (app) saying a software update was available. When I looked at the release notes, it included v12.3.2.1, while I'd been on 11.6 before.
I clicked to start the update, and when I got in after the shoot, it was ready to rock.
Thank you for your support! When the stock is down, the views are down, so this really helps.
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I understand your frustration, but it's done for a bunch of reasons. I'll try my best to share my thinking on this:
1. Viewers tend to tune out on longer videos. It's much easier for viewers to digest four short videos over time, than one long on.
2. YouTube is more likely to show videos of this length to new and returning viewers. No one knows why, it's just how the algorithm works. If it was full-length, fewer people would have even known that it exists.
3. YouTube prioritizes channels that update constantly. Breaking this up into segments makes the posting schedule more frequent, making it available to more viewers.
4. Different parts of the interview had different topics of focus. Can't fit them all into a title, this approach is more attention grabbing.
5. NEW viewers who just found the 2nd part were awfully likely to go back and watch the first part. That leads to a lot more viewers having access to the information than we'd see from doing it all in one.
6. Spacing them out avoids viewer fatigue.
The revenue factor is secondary to all of these, but still real. My ad rates are above average, but viewers expect me to treat this like a full time job, and I do, but I've never once earned the state minimum wage after expenses, even including all the non-YouTube revenue streams.
I'll keep making these either way, but if I can get my income even equal to what I could make stocking shelves at Walmart, it would allow me to make better content.
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All good my friend! If you didn't know me, I could see how you reached that conclusion. In hindsight, yep, I was again within 2% on production and 0.7% on deliveries (vs Wall Street's 5% miss). I always show my math, and I think that helps viewers see where the errors are and reach their own conclusions.
I avoid clickbait to a degree that has held the channel back. Extreme titles drive clicks, but it's just me running this place, so I make the sort of things I personally want to watch.
Sensational garbage is easy. Real numbers, real sources, and real analysis take a lot more time, but it's worth it. If I don't want to watch something, I sure as hell don't want to make it, and I can't imagine building a fan base out of the kinds of people who love what I hate, and hate what I love.
Thank you for taking the time to come back and clarify. That means a lot to me.
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If you're only looking a quarter or two into the future, they ARE a car company. You and I are looking to 2, 3, 5, 10, 20 years, and we see autonomy, grid and home storage, supplying parts to other companies, software, bots, and chip development, any one of of which could be a $100b to $1T company by itself.
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EV adoption is at all-time highs around the world, and it continued growth even in countries without incentives or mandates. People do want them. People love them. MachE, Rivian, Lightning, and other EV buyers absolutely love their cars with a passion rarely seen outside of marquee sports cars.
No one is saying "unlimited demand". The market is finite, that is well understood. EVs will quickly scale to fill 50% of global auto demand, and continue upward from there. Maybe it will top out at 90%, maybe it will be closer to 99%. We won't know until we see what tech is available in coming years to meet all the edge cases like long-range, heavy-duty towing.
This is happening, Bill. You don't have to get on board. I knew a lady who took an early retirement rather than learning to use email. Pretty silly in retrospect, but it was pretty silly at the time too.
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LOL. I bought Tesla at $13ish/share. I'll be fine. I'm the one who published a detailed explanation of the many reasons the stock could continue to fall. Why make stuff up, Bill?
I bought Arcimoto at $6, and I NEVER told anyone to buy it. Not when it was at $12, not when it was over $20, and certainly not when it fell below $6. I disclosed I was closing my position (apart from a single share for fun,) and did nothing to pump it.
I am transparent and honest, and I've never told anyone to buy any stock.
Climate change is real, man-made, and increasingly urgent. Using EVs is already possible for every light duty application, and heavy duty applications are exempt from the mandates. I'll admit there are people out there dumb enough not to know how to use common, everyday products, but it's their responsibility to figure it out. I knew a woman in her late 30s who didn't know how to pump gas. Same vibe, big Bill.
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In the 90s there were those who bought Microsoft, and those who didn't, and that latter camp were often bitter, angry, an vitriolic. Well, turns out they were right about Microsoft. Sure they made mad stacks of cash, but they did so by harming computing overall, and everyone who used or owned a computer specifically.
Tesla hasn't done that. They haven't bought and crushed their lesser competitors. They haven't offered super-cheap tech to rivals with hidden, crippling defects. They haven't worked to undermine other EV builders.
Yet the broke haters still pretend he's only made his money off the exploitation of (highly paid, highly skilled, highly in-demand) workers, and with the benefit of massive subsidies (which remain available to literally everyone, even you and me, if we could produce electric cars.)
His money didn't come from a salary or company profit, but from stock in the company which people like you and I drive up to the moon because we simply will not sell.
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Bias is a verb or a noun, but you botched it in both cases. A person can BE biased, or HAVE biases, but they cannot BE bias. That's abuse of the language and I have no time for it.
Batteries shouldn't deteriorate. A Tesla recently died and went up for sale for $10,999 because after 304,000 miles, the battery finally failed.
A swappable battery introduces all kinds of weight and other inefficiencies, and for what, because you can't trust Nio to make a battery that doesn't fail in the narrow window between the federal minimum 100k miles, and the likely demise of any vehicle at 150k miles?
Math it out, my friend.
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I hope this isn't your job, because that kind of 2018 fear, uncertainty, and doubt doesn't sell around here. My viewers know the reality.
The grid is capable and sound, and EVs are actually a net benefit.
The China doom thesis has been going strong for 20 years, and they've had their dips, but they remain strong. Regardless of their stability, gas cars are not coming back to China, or Sweden, or Finland, or any of the other countries where adoption has passed 20%.
EVs aren't the future, they're the present. Gas cars are going the way of the horse and buggy, and almost as quickly. You don't have to get on board, but you will eventually, because they're already better, and at some point even you will figure that out.
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I wonder about this. I was just sure that when DVR/TiVo became common, hidden gems on smaller channels would mean the end of network TV garbage. It wasn't, but infinite streaming seems to be doing the job now.
One problem is that they do have real, serious, high quality reporting that you will really struggle to find on YouTube. The biggest Tesla channels typically just read the news or play clips from the news without doing any deeper digging. If the mainstream news is gone, what would their sources even be? I have a pretty expansive network of sources now, but I still rely heavily on news reports.
The thing with quality reporting is that it's expensive, and you can easily invest hundreds of man-hours to come away with only 10-minutes of finished product. They have a 24-hour news cycle to fill, so it gets buried beneath a mountain of talking heads just sharing what they reckon.
Same problem on YouTube. Same problem on this very channel! The construction update videos are very high quality and generally require about an hour per minute of finished footage. They don't perform better than a video I spend an hour researching, 15-minutes recording, and 30-minutes editing.
I used to do the deep edits almost exclusively, but the channel simply refused to grow. Years of that resulted in fewer than 20,000 subscribers. Since switching to daily, the subscribers have almost doubled in about 4 months. Very frustrating.
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I don't think it's fair to cite Tony Seba, since he's pretty obviously a time traveler. ;)
To your example though, "But Ford has computers in their cars, surely they CAN make the best gaming computer ever!" I mean, yeah, maybe. They could certainly throw a ton of money at it. Brand loyalty alone would sell a bunch right out of the gate, but like you suggested, they would be very unlikely to stack up, especially in their first few iterations.
The complaint that Tesla struggles to actually get cars into production compared to legacy companies is entirely valid. They absolutely struggle with this. It's not among their core competencies, and folks like Ford should be damn grateful for it.
If CyberTruck came out this month and began it's ramp, Ford would be at a significant disadvantage. Not just in terms of truck sales, but because it would mean they are already on to tooling for their next vehicle.
I believe that the bottleneck on every upcoming model is batteries. They've got it sorted on the existing models, but the supply is finite and everybody wants them.
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Fantastic comment!
We really don't know how hard it will be to overcome the production obstacles for CyberTruck, and there are many to iron out. The MegaCastings have never been done at this size before, but if Idra says they can do it, I believe them, and that should be an easy one to get past.
Structural battery is easy enough, assuming you have the 4680s, which is still not up to 100%. Rumor says yields at Kato road are 70-80% and climbing, but that's still an obstacle, to say nothing of sourcing enough raw materials.
Then there's the exo-skeleton, which to me is the biggest question mark. Sandy Munro is of the opinion that it's absolutely doable, but that doesn't mean it will be easy. They may already have it entirely sorted out at their pilot line in Fremont, but we don't know what we can't know.
So IF they have the battery production sorted out, AND they can get enough raw materials for them, then I believe your 200k estimate is reasonable, though that would strike me more as the final run-rate at the end of 2022, rather than the total year's production.
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Especially true on the retail cost part. At $200 I'd drop it instantly. There would still be tons of rural customers, but I can't speak to whether or not it would be enough.
Five years sounds short, even to me, and I suspect the V2.0 sats will have more fuel on board, but considering it's only taken 3 years to launch the constellation as it exists today, and the launch cadence has been accelerating, it's not too short of a window.
It's likely that, even with these Falcon-era satellites, they'll become revenue neutral within 3 years of first launch. More markets are coming online all the time, and those do not require additional satellites, just transmission permissions over those territories. I'm confident they could 4-10x today's revenue with today's satellites.
Version 2 WILL be another step change, and I can't wait to see it in action.
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They hadn't begun public sales in the US when this video was recorded, and looking through the comments, you'll see a LOT of people very angry with the assessment. Normally comments slow to a trickle after a few days, but those angry folks didn't let up for ages.
It only got quiet once real world reviews started popping up, and they were almost universally negative, and deeply so. Donut Media published a review recently trying to address and replicate the issues raised by others, and while some of them had been resolved (or were sufficiently rare to not surface,) they did not have good things to say about it.
When it comes time to cycle back around through the carmakers, VinFast is unlikely to receive a better grade. I'm hopeful, and they are plenty motivated to get things sorted out, but as of today, things are not looking great.
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Thanks for the comment, you raise great points!
35,000 pounds is no joke. While I'm sure many EVs could handle the load in terms of torque, the necessary weight, braking, and traction just wouldn't be there. You could do it in a straight line for a demonstration, but I think it would be dangerous to actually try to haul that much weight on a public road.
Your use case is unique, and I'm sure you know that. That's why you see so many 150s and so few 450s on the road.
The very good news is that each year another bunch (of the thousands) of use cases are addressed by some company or another. Rivian getting chargers into National Parks will open up the EV market to a lot of new customers. Lucid breaking 400 miles of range (handily) will make it possible for long-range daily commuters to avoid public charging time and hassle.
Yours may be among the last use cases addressed based on the sheer physics of it, and that's okay, because if 80% of new cars are EVs, your gas is unlikely to be outrageously expensive.
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@The Lone Wanderer You may not have seen the death threats before they were removed. When you call a Christian website lazy, apparently that's an attack on Christ himself, and it brought some truly insane people out of the woodwork. So yes, bad people are unsubscribing.
I can see my stats. Six unsubscribes, which is about normal, versus 170 new subscribers, which is well above average. On balance, more people really, really liked the video than hated it. For perspective, that's comparable to the sub losses on a video about Tesla insurance, or the CyberTruck removing the single-motor variant from the initial launch. It appears some of the people saying they were going to unsubscribe were never subscribers in the first place.
If someone is so angry that I criticized an anti-trans, anti-vax, anti-science website for making the laziest interview with Elon ever produced, that's their choice. The channel won't suffer for that loss. That's a net gain. Onward and upward.
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All fair points, but they boil down to just a couple issues. Let's start with stainless that stains. I have kitchen knives like that. How do they get rust spots if they're stainless? They shouldn't, right?
Too cheap of an alloy. They most likely skimped on the chromium or nickel because it's expensive. You can find Google explanations that blame it on improper care and handling, but that's nonsense. Extra care can make cheap stainless last longer, but a proper alloy won't have any issue. Industrial kitchens use a lot of stainless, and they are absolutely abused with standing muck and harsh chemicals. They do just fine.
The DeLorean is a more complicated matter. They decided to use stainless just to be different. It wasn't a better material for the use case, it was just eye-catching. Stamping stainless steel is really hard on the dies, and in the way those were built, didn't result in better impact resistance.
When "fixing" steel, the question is what kind of damage has been done. A door ding? This will have a ver y thick skin, likely impervious to door dings. Smack it with a claw hammer? Buff it out. If you get a crease across a fold, that's going to be a bigger issue, and may require a larger replacement piece, or maybe you just cut it out and weld a new one in.
It's going to be difficult to cause damage, and if it required Bondo for some reason, you'd probably just wrap the whole truck. While a DeLorean looks strange in any color other than bare metal, we're going to see wrapped Cybertrucks every day of the week.
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Nikola had about as much cash on hand when they broke ground as Tesla did when they started building Giga Shanghai, so I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. Nikola raised capital based on very specific promises and expectations. The company that tricked honest people into giving them billions no longer exists. What we have instead is a small custom coach builder without a single unit sold.
There is no salt. I want ALL the clean vehicle companies to succeed, and Tesla is not my only EV investment. I regularly praise Lucid, VW, Kia, and others for their accomplishments. The approach taken by Nikola was all wrong, and their fans are most often aggressively angry. I might lash out too if they'd stolen my money.
They can still survive, but there is no path to the 10-year growth targets promised when investors poured in their life savings.
Bear's Workshop is showing what's happening on the ground. That is a neutral story. My job isn't to give every company an equal shake, but a shake fair to their prospects. Giving a pass while ignoring red flags is what led investors to lose on Faraday Future, Zenn, and yes, even Nikola.
They are already regrouping and looking at how to survive on their finite cash supply and move forward, but those who invest at the current prices are likely in for a very tough ride. They need to be valued as a low volume coach builder, which is currently their highest aspiration.
And you'll notice I've never once suggested people buy Tesla stock either.
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Thanks for your comment Big H! Most EVs produced worldwide use LFP batteries, including SR models from Tesla. These use lithium, iron, and phosphorus, which exist in every country, and are not conflict minerals.
NCA (high nickel Lithium Ion) batteries use nickel, which isn't produced in every country, but is still readily available from free-trade partners (including Canada,) and cobalt, which primarily comes from truly terrible places.
In 2021 petroleum refineries used 136 metric tons of cobalt. This can be recycled, but it isn't. It's simply consumed. Lost forever. Gotta go dig up another 100+ tons of it every year.
Every internal combustion engine on the road is responsible for cobalt consumption, but only some of the electric vehicles are. More importantly, because cobalt is so valuable, it is recycled from EV batteries and put back into use.
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What an odd thing to say. I'm not suggesting those people don't exist, but they certainly aren't given a voice in this video series. I am attacked relentlessly for just responding to unfounded complaints, but I don't take it personally, and it doesn't make me feel any less about Ford or its vehicles.
People are people, and some of them are weird. Every major brand has its diehard fans, and detractors. My brother was ride or die GM in the 80s and 90s, and I only found out later it was because that was the first car he could afford, so he knew how to work on them. Now he just buys whatever fits best with each use case.
Unfortunately, you're going to have to wait at least another year to get good information about the CyberTruck, since Elon said it will be released "Hopefully next year," and that tells me that IF it happens, it will be in the final seconds of 2023.
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Seems premature, and like a bad idea in terms of attracting new advertisers. If their reputation for stopping ads is advocating consumer punish them for it, they just won't start advertising in the first place.
Their concerns are not without merit. We know a big chunk of the moderation team has been let go, but we don't yet know what "absolute free speech" actually means. Big companies require confidence that their ads are not going to be placed alongside messages that run contrary to their image.
If I was advertising on a website and they decided they're going to start running only pro-gasoline content, I'd pull my ads. If they decide they're no longer going to moderate their comment section, and it results in abuse in harassment of me as an advertiser, I'm going to pull my ads.
If leaks inside the company say this is coming, and I ask them for assurances that these changes aren't coming, but they refuse, what should I do?
I don't believe a hellstorm is coming, but that uncertainty is enough to make advertisers hesitant. They're not under any obligation to continue advertising.
What I think we'll see in a month or two is a big improvement to Twitter, without all the predicted doom and gloom materializing. This will mean more eyeballs, more engagement, and higher quality overall. Advertisers go wherever the customer is. They'll be back.
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The problem with the negotiation is that Shawn Fain started so unrealistically high that it's unclear what the actual objectives are.
If they got all their demands, it would definitely be too high. That would bankrupt the companies. 40-46% increase, OT starting at 32 hours, 8-hours off paid each week, plus defined benefit pension would be sustainable for, what, maybe a year or two?
The underlying problem is that they only make a profit on gas cars, and those are being phased out worldwide. Unless they find a way to command a significant margin on EVs, there's no profit at all.
Everyone is angry that Mary is paid with stock, but the union isn't asking for their members to get stock. When I've asked union workers why, they've told me it's too uncertain and they need a guaranteed check. I get that, but what are they really negotiating?
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@adamsensabaugh1417 Can't tell if you're being serious, but chips are effortless compared to batteries. If they can't keep a suitcase worth of chips flowing, they're going to be destroyed when they try to get fifty trainloads of batteries while competing against literally every car maker on the planet.
Chips are churned out like like popcorn compared to batteries. Chips contain mere milligrams of elements in short supply, while batteries contain 1000x as much. The equipment is every bit as complicated, and the ingredients will remain in limited supply for a decade at least. Tesla invested billions in battery production many years ago, and even they still can't meet demand while also buying from LG, CATL, and others.
You, me, or GM can order ONE battery no problem. If we need billions of them, well, we've got a problem. Not you and me, really, but Ford, VW, and GM. They have a problem.
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Comparing insurance on a Prius vs a Model S is difficult because they are not comparable cars. They're not in the same class. They're not even in adjacent classes.
San Diego is showing average gas price of $4.95. Even if you're paying that super-peak rate of $0.475/kWh exclusively at public chargers, you will enjoy a gas savings of $5,109 on a Model 3 over the course of 100,000 miles.
Switching to Model S, the miles/kWh shows a range of 2.6-3.6 (your S75 shows 2.94, so we'll use that,) but we also need to change which gas cars we're comparing it to. S500 is rated at 24mpg combined (not bad considering its size, weight, and performance) and we come out to a $4,475 savings. That's on your much older vehicle, not the newer, more efficient one.
Actually, since we're comparing a 2016/2017 Tesla, we need to use the same year S500, which got 21mpg combined, so the savings would be $7,421.
It's still substantially cheaper, even in your extreme case.
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Probably not. You'd have to be awfully bad at math to not realize a Trax gets 30mpg, which is about $12k over the first 100,000 miles. The same miles in this car, even assuming you can't get a good overnight rate, is around 15-cents/kWh, which makes the cost of those same 100k miles $8,000 cheaper.
That's before you factor in the oil changes, and the brake job you'd need by then.
If an EV is $16k AND built in the US, it will cost less than $9,000 out the door, and you're likely to save $10,000 over the first 10 years of ownership. It's a free car at that point.
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There's a flipside to this. There are a lot of buyers who can't wait 3-6 months to take delivery, and will only buy a car if it's available more quickly. Impulse buying a Tesla was virtually impossible throughout most of the company's history. I'd have struggled to buy a Tesla because I drive my rigs until they are dead, dead, dead, and I can't spare even a month while awaiting delivery.
There's also another 50,000 orders Hertz is waiting on.
But really, I look at production over deliveries, so my assessment is more about what they can build rather than deliver.
Deliveries go back to demand levers. I've made videos about that in the past. Things like different colors, pricing, and bringing back the referral program were all on my list, and most of my list has come around in one form or another.
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Toyota having the technology and Toyota deploying the technology are two different things.
To me, the first big factor to consider is that they've made this exact promise before, repeatedly, going back 11 years. If they lied every other time, and we have seen the proof, we'd have to lack the first ounce of critical thinking to take them at their word this time.
The second (and easier) factor is the sniff test, and this doesn't pass it. Why would they make a car with 700 miles of range instead of two cars with 350 miles of range that costs $15-20,000 less to produce?
There are buyers who would appreciate 700-miles of range, but the number of drivers who actually need it, and have the capacity to pay essentially double for it, is a sliver of a sliver of the total addressable market.
EVs haven't quite reached the Space Race level of R&D, but it's getting close. Countless companies, countries, universities, and research groups around the world are dedicating vast sums to the pursuit, and it's working.
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I don't know anyone who said it would be sold under any name other than "Model 3", but it was absolutely called Highland internally, and that name even carried over onto schematics provided to the suppliers making the parts. I know this because I've seen them.
The people who most vocally doubted the existence of Highland got nearly everything wrong. This is a significant refresh. The front, back, suspension, tires, wheels, interior, climate control, seats, steering column, glass, and infotainment have all been updated.
You can argue that having the same battery, motors, brakes, doors, and floor mats isn't going as far as you'd like, but this IS the product they've been working on under the code name Highland.
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I appreciate the fact that you took the time to use actual figures in your reply. This sort of comment adds value, regardless of whether or not people agree with you. Great stuff!
And I think we'll have a much clearer picture when both are on the market. Ford has a solid reputation for delivering pretty precisely on their specs, for ICE obviously, but also for the MachE. That's helpful. Tesla doesn't miss their benchmarks either though, and apart from timelines, has more often over-delivered on performance.
When the Lightning was announced in 2019, they said deliveries would begin "next year", which as last year, and now the official word is "Spring 2022," so delays aren't unique to Tesla.
It will be very interesting to see them head to head when the time comes, and I suspect there will be no clear winner among most who actually get to review them both.
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Or, and hear me out, you could actually WATCH the video to see the methodology, and maybe look back at the previous two in the series where even more of the groundwork was laid out.
I mean, yeah, you can just complain about the things you didn't take the time to understand, and I get that that's an easier thing to do, but for real, no joke, you could slow your roll, Sonic, and actually consume the information.
If you think remediating a thoroughly dredged swamp is easy, or that it isn't more work than erecting a single steel column, my friend, you may need to reconsider the scope of the site.
Electrical and plumbing can all be done in series in ways backfilling the site cannot.
Dickn't, my friend. That is to say, be not one.
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I wish them the best, and I'm confident they'll sell thousands before whatever comes next, whether it's for the better or worse. But I have to say the hostility of their "fans" is wildly disproportionate to their number of investors and reservation holders.
This got 10x the backlash as when I called out GM, and they have millions of fans (and that video got twice as many views.) When I call out Rivian I get literally zero pushback. None. Not one comment. Rivian has a lot of fans.
Maybe this is nervous investors terrified after watching the CEO dump $75 million in shares while telling mom & pop to hold steady in their retirement funds. Maybe it's employees going the extra mile after work. It could even be a paid, orchestrated attack, but that strikes me as unlikely on account of how genuinely awful the commenters are. Not in terms of quality, though certainly that too, but in terms of just all of it. The approach, the talking points, the lack of tact or adherence to social norms. That sort of unprofessionalism just reeks of fear to me.
Oh well. The more they comment, the more YouTube shows this to new viewers, so I guess hats off to them. ;)
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You've seen all my videos, so you probably already know I don't think he's a creep. He's damn smart and successful, and I respect him and his work. I'm not his first one-sided internet beef and I probably won't be the last. A lot of us have trademark characteristics that are part of our brand, though not quite what we're like in real life, and that one seems to have served him well.
He's brash and confrontational online, but in person he's very kind and humble. I've only met him a few times at events, but I've seen how he interacts with fans, family, and strangers. I even talked to him briefly in Florida a few weeks ago, and he didn't say or do anything to suggest there was bad blood.
He's not for everyone, but I've defended him a number of times from viewers who don't resonate with his style.
If you ever get a chance to see him give a presentation in person, you should check it out. He's great on his channel, but at Florida TeslaCon, his talk was off the charts.
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@marbatss Fisker sold over 2,000 units, and I'm not sure any reasonable person would consider them a serious company.
I think Lucid is serious, as I've said many, many, many times, but if you're asking, then there you go. Break 2,000 deliveries with an upward trajectory (regardless of profit, that's always tough during launch) and they'll likely be taken seriously beyond meme investors.
The snooping is a necessity since they accost and harass anyone who tries to report on their on-the-ground activities. If you're cool with that, I'm cool with it too.
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@jason jordan A solid point, but one that made more sense in the heyday of horses. You could also say that people would choose to buy cars with better fuel economy, but they weren't available until the law required their creation.
Sure, you could get a Pinto instead of a Torino, but it wasn't until improved fuel economy was mandatory that you saw manufacturers actually invest in creating compelling cars that wouldn't drain your wallet at the pump.
Before Tesla, the few EVs that existed were expensive cars with low range, low performance, and truly boring styling.
There were thousands (millions?) of horse breeders at the dawn of the age of automobiles. Now, at the dawn of the EV age, there are only a handful of mega-conglomerates making the majority of the world's cars, and they are fighting like hell to stop the transition.
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The minimalist interior isn't a compromise but a design choice. Same goes with the exterior styling. We may see that change as a demand lever to be pulled once the massive backlog of orders gets down to a more reasonable level. While no cars are universally beautiful to everyone, this does seem to have pretty broad appeal.
I haven't heard the Models 3/Y called "luxury" so much as "premium", which they definitely are. The panoramic glass was pretty uncommon before they made it a standard feature. The sound system is exceptional, the seats are plenty comfortable, the tech package is top notch, and the performance all qualify well into the realm of premium in my opinion.
My BMW 325ci had leather, decent but not exciting sound, and fair performance. I definitely wouldn't call it luxury, but it would be hard to argue it wasn't premium.
But you'd be right that even "premium" is a pretty wiggly term. I don't know if most people would consider a $100k Ford pickup "premium", but I definitely would, and not just because of the price. Comfort, tech, sound, and performance are all there. That's all I expect.
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The thing with Elon is that he genuinely hasn't paid much in taxes, BUT it's because he borrows against his stock. If the stock collapses, which it has in the past, he's ruined. That's HIS gamble. If we don't like the system, we need to advocate for change, not hate those using it exactly as it's designed.
Yes, Bezos' net worth doubled during the lockdown, but the value of my 2016 Nissan Quest also skyrocketed. Should I be paying tax on that "new wealth"? If we're going to tax net worth, folks who own cars are going to be in for a rude awakening.
Unless, and hear me out, they don't sell those cars because they still have a reason to hold on to them.
Yeah, right back where we started.
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The power required to produce enough hydrogen for a mile of travel (or a thousand miles) remains roughly 3x what's needed with batteries, when using electrolysis. That's the only green method out there. Hydrogen from reformed CNG is cost competitive, but at that point, might as well skip the $100b in R&D and just use diesel trucks with the leftover money invested in reforestation to offset the emissions.
Hydrogen IS a byproduct of many existing industrial chemical processes, but it represents a sliver of what would be needed to drive even 5% of the trucks on the road. When they get to one or two percent, they'll have long exhausted that supply.
Make no mistake, I AM a Tesla fan, but if you go back through my videos on big rigs, you'll see nothing but praise from me for ALL the BEV truck makers. Too heavy? Range too short? Price too high? Doesn't matter to me as long as there are customers willing to buy them. They know their use cases, and for some of them it's good enough while the 2nd and 3rd gen trucks are getting out of the design center and onto the roads. And it's not "out of the lab" because the efficiency gains ahead are evident based on today's proven tech. It's just that those trucks were designed on what was available 5 years earlier, and the industry is still moving quickly.
Thank you for your comment. Was a great thought exercise and I appreciate that.
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Tesla Energy is already a multi-billion dollar business, and its growth is still accelerating with the recent completion of the MegaPack factory in Lathrop. This small but growing number already puts them on the list of the world's biggest energy companies, though admittedly pretty close to the bottom.
The key difference being that they're not only expected to continue growing, since the total addressable market is in the trillions, but it postures them exceptionally well to continue growing their rate of expansion.
That's to say nothing of their other divisions like autonomy, SaaS, insurance, chip design, charging network, commercial transportation, autobidder, and too many more to mention. Any of those are worth at least billions on their own today, and all of them are likely to continue a steep growth curve in the coming years.
Those are the reasons the stock is priced the way it is. Financial statements only tell you about the past. The stock price is an effort to predict what will happen in the future.
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First of all, you're definitely not wrong. Let's get that out of the way.
The way I came up with my dimensions was by taking a rough, very early estimate from measuring stuff within drone footage and doing by best to figure out the sizes based on known items in still frames. That's hardly scientific.
From there I counted the footings from side to side and divided by the known dimensions, but that's where my math broke down because there's a second set of footings along the west side where they're half-width along the loading docks. So counted a whole extra span, which led to a small, but acceptable error.
The next error comes from the fact that they aren't all the same size. Most of them are, but not all. Another small error, but they're starting to compound. Those are risks when broad, sitewide assumptions are made early in the accounting.
At this point I'm not really comfortable making changes that will create massive backwards waves through the timeline, since they could be seen as massaging the numbers in one direction or the other, so I'm just staying the course.
So let me ask your opinion. Should I just remove the "38x38" text, add a note trying to clarify it, or do some other thing to better bring it back toward accuracy? I can do whatever, but if I'm going to state that it's 45x45, it's going to lead to some other misunderstanding regarding the total size of the site.
Thanks for the feedback, and thanks in advance for reading all of this. :/
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