Comments by "tooltalk" (@tooltalk) on "Bloomberg Television" channel.

  1.  @lordbendtner7021  : sure, China sell more units, but less value. The avg price of a new vehicle in China $20K vs. US $50K. Even if China sells twice more cars, the US market is still greater in value.
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  2. ​ @kmax4668  sure, wumao.
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  3.  @xinyiquan666  : >> not all of them, many are from qinghua university of beijing, << Actually, no. many of them are from either the US or Taiwan. Take the leading Chinese chip companies, such as YTMC and Biren chips, for instance. >> 6 post doct out of 10 in US are chinese, most of them are from china university, also US have no good enough universty now, compared to china << You claim that 6 post-doc out of 10 in the US are Chinese; then claim that there are no good enough US universities -- so which is it? If US universities are no good, why is that Chinese has to send the highest number of international students to US universities? LOL And why do you think all the key TSMC executives (and SMIC) all have US graduate degrees and are still sending their kids to US universities as they did 4-5 decades ago? >> US has no top technology in chips, bear that in mind, you are buying from taiwan and south korea, , << This is hilarious. South Korea is largely specialized in memory chip (and displays) production and really not much else; Taiwan likewise is all about chip fabrication and really not much there either; Japan in mostly chip-making equipments and electro chemicals; the chip industry as a whole has transitioned from running their own fabs -- "real men have fabs" models -- to contracting model over the past decade. Most of South Korea/Taiwans' customers are US tech companies like Apple, nVidia, Intel and other US chip companies who contracted or farmed out their manufacturing business b/c of capital-intensity and increasing environmental risks of chip manufacturing in the US. In fact, TSMC's fairly recently rise has mostly to do with Apple's decision to switch from Samsung's US operation to TSMC's taiwan operation which then was a fairly obscure, relatively unknown to the public until fairly recently with much smaller presence in the IC industry (in terms of sales). Sure, every industry has boom and bust, there is nothing special about the US chip manufacturing being at bust stage, which as a result, most leading US chip companies, fabless or otherwise, farmed out their manufacturing to Samsung or TSMC, whose 15-minue I suspect won't last too long.
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  4.  @xinyiquan666  >> and its having its own DUV 100% domestically made by end of this year ( mass production), and first EUV has been developed << LOL You mean SMEE"s 28nm which has not yet been mass-produced after announcing it two years ago? Let's all thank Japan's precision machineries and optics + their engineering assistant for that! >> first EUV has been developed , and mass production is in next 2 years with EUV, << I guess it's easier to copy and steal something that developed over almost 30+ years. A group of Chinese employees of ASML already has stolen their software and is now doing business as usual in China. Perhaps you've heard of XTAL? LOL
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  5.  @jctai100  >> 'Native talent'???? At what point do you consider it native talent << What credit? SMIC's cutting edge nodes are developed by former TSMC engineers who were educated/trained at various US universities and tech companies decades ago. There is hardly anything developed natively in China wrt SMIC's 7nm.
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  6. And Americans had to "liberate" the Chinese from the Imperial Japan.
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  7. Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson said that despite their success, Chinese automakers are still some distance behind Tesla when it comes to the underlying technology that powers EVs
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  8.  @natn41r  : First, it just means that you have no idea what a subsidy is. Second, China filed a WTO dispute accusing the US of limiting access to local market a few months ago - so if "most Chinese cars" are made for their local market, why cry about the US's local production/sourcing requirement? Third, China's loss -- the US is the most lucrative auto market in the world.
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  9. they are damned if they do; dmaned if they don't.
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  10.  @anti-bullingjames  : China's chip industry accounts for only about 8% of all chips produced globally. Their domestic market is only about 20% -- vs 25% in the US. China imports most of their chips b/c they are assembled/packaged/tested in China -- the key word here is "imported." Samsung's bread and butter is in DRAM and it's really all they know how to do. South Korea's fabless industry isn't all that and Samsung isn't ready to take over the logic chip market.
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  11.  @ASK-ko9qx  : why are you worried so much about American chips? Most chip manufacturing is already outsourced in the first place to deal with this kind of downturn in business cycle. In the short run, it means less business, but their potential loss is minimized since there is no idling factory or forloughed employees -- the cost of scaling up/down their manufacturing is zero and is born by the contract manufacturers in Asia (and many more millions employed in assembly/packaging/testing in China). The US accounts for only about ~15% of all chips produced globally and there is enough market to absorbe domestic production. Further, China was never the major factor driving down chip production cost or retail prices, and the chip costs/prices have been in steady decline for the past 40+ years with/without China.
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  12.  @cocamilo22  : China accounts for about 20% of all chips consumption.
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  13. diabetic since 2008 and never had anything that worked this well before.
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  14.  @superfluous5162  >> china literally control all essential metal or rare earth processing and supply chain . << That was about 14 years ago when China had 95+% of the rare earth metal supply-chain and weaponized it against Japan to settle a political dispute in 2010. It's down to about 65% as the world diversified away as China risk became clear after that incident.
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  15. >> In a 1.4billion population, apple is going to take a huge slump << That's what they said about Samsung too.. To this date, Samsung is #1 in global smartphone sales!
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  16.  @jzhng250  : Biden now gets my respect.
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  17.  黃屍  says a insecure wumao who has been brainwashed by CCP.
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  18. >> Won't make the big three more competitive for sure << Tesla is already keeping them busy. The Chinese EV's key advantage is in their low-cost raw material supply-chain and doesn't bring much else to the table.
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  19. a used-car salesman in congress?
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  20. It's called hypermilling -- driving at really really slow speed to achieve max distance, only possible under China's notorious inflated CLTC range.
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  21. The US's trade deficit with China is the lowest since 2010!! It's working!
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  22. Apple are the best company in the world b/c they support oppressive communist regimes, ignore workers' right to protest, and censor freedom of speech -- oh, and Apple complies with all regulation and rules, however immoral.
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  23. Actually it is quite possible. We aren't talking about making illegal copies of MS Windows or iPhones. ASML for instance makes only about ~50 lithography machines per year and cost up to $200M. Most semi conductor equipments aren't that costly, but they are heavily specialized and controlled.
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  24. ​ @chillilover8345  : >>.. going high tech and catching up ASML is just a matter of time Sure, in about 20 years, China might catch up with ASML's EUV tech currently in use. I remember how Japan was once thought to be unstoppable back in the 80's and 90's. Unlike Japan which quickly surpassed American counterparts in a relatively short time, China is yet to get there. China still doesnt' have indigenous chip talent of their own -- take for instance SMIC's 7nm. The man behind SMIC's 7nm and 14nm is Mong Song Liang, a fomer top TSMC engineer -- ie China still has to rely on import talent and supply-chain.
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  25.  @huas5350  There probably won't be one without nVidia.
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  26.  @KayyHong  : China isn't really outcompeting anything. They are still in the bottom wrung of manufacturing supply-chain. Take for instance semiconductors, the vast majority of high-value, high-tech design and chips manufacturing is done in the US, S. Korea, Taiwan; China's role in the supply-chain is mostly in low-value, low-tech assembly/packaging/testing. I know there are very uninformed Chinese who think China makes all those chips in the iPhones, etc -- China accounts for only about 8% of all chips produced globally; the country is the largest importer of chips by far. The same goes for shipbuilding -- much of their orders come from either the gov't or domestic companies for low-value bulk carriers; the majority of lucrative high-value ships are built by S. Koreans.
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  27. That already failed a couple of years back. Apple, America's sweetheart, was a major backer of a Chinese chip company YMTC and helped recruit American engineers to improve their yield -- until about when the company was blacklisted last year.
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  28.  @anthonyhotspot7890  : >> except that its further then US technologies 😂 LOL except that you have no clue what you are talking about. You see the USDOE did all the basic research for EUV in early 90's and licensed it out to ASML -- ASML's Japanese competitors were excluded from this -- guaranteeing their virtual monopoly. In exchange for their use of America's technology, ASML runs their second largest R&D center in Connecticut, US; the company's light/laser supplier, Cymer, is also an American company now acquired by ASML in 2012 and became a subsidiary; then you have ASML's software R&D group in Silicon Valley, US. It's also estimated that slightly less than 25% of ASML's all suppliers are US based. So America's footprint in ASML's dominance is not small and it's not by coincidence.
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  29.  @琉球皇帝  >> No, I think China should ban Apple from selling in China, << the CCP probably doesn't want to do that -- there aren't that many US companies with enough political clout to defend China's ethnic cleansing for instance in Xinjiang and other unsaviory things. Although I must say that I was prety impressed when VW actually built a plant in Xinjiang to up the game!
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  30. >> Lithium batteries are said to be 95% recyclable so in the future this should shift the balance. << That's a bit of wishful thinking. In order to achieve that clean energy vehicle claim that the West wants to project, they have no other choice, but to continuously outsource pollution to China and rely on them.
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  31.  @alangivre2474  >> I do not doubt chinese technological cappabilities << Of course, you shouldn't doubt. These are made by 300 Taiwanese/Korean engineers Mong Sang Liang brought along when he went to went for SMIC several years ago. Let's not forget that 95+% of the equipments on their factory floor are still foreign.
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  32. little or nothing to do with their price level. All it matters is that Chinese EVs overcapacity was funded by the govt to undercut foreign comeptitors in oversea market; or the gov't misused subsidies to cripple foreign competitors in local market.
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  33. How then do you explain that about 100k Japanese die of infectious flu and pneumonia? In 2017, US had only about 55k death -- Japan fatality rate is 6 times greater per population.
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  34.  @NUUYORK  and please stop with your nonsenses - Japan's hygiene or culture doesn't prevent infectious diseases. Japan in fact has the highest infectious flu and pneumonia death rate in the developed world. In 2017, the US had only about 55k such deaths; Japan had nearly 100k - or 6 times the death rate per population of the US. Japan can probably deal with 30k or 40k additional death without stressing their health system or anybody noticing it since there are already 32k elders who die alone unnoticed for weeks and sometimes months every year.
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  35. You mean like China's weaponization of rare earth metal against Japan in 2010?
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  36. LOL. Tesla makes EVs in China and can't no longer import them into Europe.
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  37. Tim Apple is going to recycle this again 4 years from now.
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  38. >>Shifting to other memory chips would take years<< The memory chips are all commodity chips. It doesn't take years, much less days, to replace them. >> there is only a limited amount of Capacity at Samsung.<< Samsung's warehouse is practically overflowing with unsold chips from the recent crash in memory chip demand/price.
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  39.  @jackzhou4813  :>>China also has its own manufacturer of flash memory particles<< South Korean + the US accounts for about 95% of all memory chips. China's own manufacturers are tiny.
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  40.  @TSRHelios  : both. They are in a commodity market where the real differentiator is their volume.
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  41.  @nshon7  (continue) South Korean battery maker Samsung SDI opened a $600 million plant in Xi’an, China, in 2015, but can’t sell locally because they are not on the technology ministry’s list. “We are exporting these batteries to European car makers,” said a company spokesman, who declined to speculate on why it didn’t make the list. Panasonic built a $457 million plant in Dalian, China, and is trying to figure out how to get its newest battery onto the approved list in time for its release in March, a company spokeswoman said."Show less
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  42. >> So European consumers are being asked to pay more by their own governments? Very interesting concept...the tariff thing. << China has it a import tariff on foreign autos. You seem to be ok when China is doing it, but not the EU, why?
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  43. ​ @WalkOverHotCoal  ​ >> The fact that the Chinese export needs to add $22,000 to satisfy the EU, tells me that European cars are far more expensive than << the most expensive component in EVs is batteries which account for up to 40% of their build cost -- and this is one single greatest factor that keeps EVs out from most drivers. China's EV subsidies at least since 2015 likewise evolved around supporting own domestic battery industry and making sure that no foreign competitors had access to their NEV market, which in turn helped accelerate mass-production, commodification of China battery industry -- and, subsequently, lower price. The EU is just playing the same game to keep out Chinese battery powered EVs while they proceed with their battery industry buildout over next few years. So no worries there, European cars would get much cheaper when the battery constrains are relieved. Biden's response, the IRA enacted in 2022, to clean energy was also mostly inspired by and based on China's highly discriminatory and anticompetitive NEV policies to keep out Chinese EV/batteries and ensure no tax rebates/subsidies to anything sourced from China. Yes, do expect the cost of EV batteries in the US to drop by 30%-40% by 2025-2026 there as well. I strongly suspect that the EU Commission knows what they are doing -- they have been carefully observing all the shenanigans China pulled to gain advantage in supply-chain and EV/battery tech, and already warned against it back in 2018 -- see the EU's WTO dispute claim against China (WT/DS549) -- "China — Certain Measures on the Transfer of Technology." They just waited long enough for Chinese EVs to hit their shore for the next move.
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  44.  @WenruiZheng  Sure, no foreign battery companies have access to local EV market in China.
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  45. the EV sales would never take off on its own.
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  46. And it costs $10K/month!
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  47. DUV can be used to make 7nm chips and that's plenty enough for high-performing AI/GPUs. Further EUVs are primarily for mobile and datacenter chips, almost all military applications rely upon older DUV's or 14nm or older -- military is all about reliability and it takes as long as 10 years for chips to be tested and certified for battle use.
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  48.  @nibushishuheihei  : Tesla uses cheap, inferior Chinese batteries for cheap, low-end EVs only; and Japanese/Korean for Long Range/Performance models. This WSJ article explains why foreign EV makers use Chinese batteries: Power Play: How China-Owned Volvo Avoids Beijing’s Battery Rules Car maker is allowed to use high-end foreign technology, while rivals are squeezed into buyingl ocal, Trefor Moss, May 17, 2018, WSJ. "... China requires auto makers to use batteries from one of its approved suppliers if they want to be cleared to mass-produce electric cars and plug-in hybrids and to qualify for subsidies. These suppliers are all Chinese, so such global leaders as South Korea’s LG Chem Ltd and Japan’s Panasonic Corp. are excluded. ..."
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  49.  @nibushishuheihei  (continued) ... Foreign batteries aren’t officially banned in China, but auto executives say that since 2016 they have been warned by government officials that they must use Chinese batteries in their China-built cars, or face repercussions. That has forced them to spend millions of dollars to redesign cars to work with inferior Chinese batteries, they say. ... “We want to comply, and we have to comply,” said one executive with a foreign car maker. “There’s no other option.”
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  50.  @dream-of-ice  Firstly, China's EV subsidies have been around since 2009; extended and renewed every 3-4 years. The last "direct purchase subsidy" ended on Jan 1, 2023, but was extended as "tax credit" in June for another 4 years with a budget of $73B (USD equivalent) slightly less than about 4x the amount spent in the preceeding 10 years. Second, no worries, in addition to the WSJ article cited in my previous comment, there are numerous other public info which are now the basis of the EU/US countermeasure against China's EV policies under Xi's Made-China-Great-Again 2025. Third, some foreign battery makers do actually have plants in China, but they make batteries for "export" and still have no access to "local market." In Tesla's case, most LG in the Long Range models end up in Europe.
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