Comments by "tooltalk" (@tooltalk) on "PolyMatter" channel.

>> One of top reasons EV becomes more popular in China is that the charging cost is much much lower than fuel. << the electricity in China is cheaper b/c it's heavily subsidized and it's 60% coal.
20
how many 350+KWh charging stations?
2
@saltymonke3682 : >> That's why most of your EV drivers are taxi driver. BYD do the same tactics in London and Australia. << That's also what Vinfast is apparently doing -- about half of their EVs are sold to a taxi company owned by its parent Vingroup.
2
a lot of wishful thinking.
2
China makes cheap, "good-enough" EVs. They are able to sell their EVs oversea b/c others are still supply-constrained (eg, EV batteries).
2
@matthewlipton2998 : the BYD Atto 3 are entry-level EVs.. It's not that difficult to make "good enough" EVs -- China is fully capable of making "good-enough" EVs cheaply with their cheap "good enough" LFP batteries.
2
@JuntaoLi-l9e >> ,They are BYD Tesla and Aion,which are top3 sales in China << Tesla is the only known EV company with profit. BYD makes money from its vertically integrated businesses -- especially mining and refining where their margins are much higher, or as much as 55+% and 15+% respectively.
2
Musk says he doesn't like subsidies.... that his competitors also receive.
2
the video should start from the reign of General Ziad and how socialism destroyed Somalia in the 70's. The country never recovered from the failure.
1
@extrem8475 >> Also most of those will probably burn up randomly as far as im aware. Chinese Batteries face serious problems << Absolutely. They stick in tiny LFP batteries and operate them at 5+C-rates -- then they wonder they go up in flames.
1
@dliu115 >> How many of these EVs exploded? Do you have that number? I can guarantee you that it's over 25% << We won't know for sure since most BYD EVs are in China and EV fires in China are rarely covered by international media, but in one recent highly publicized incident, a local judge in Cenxi, China was trapped and burnt alive in a BYD Han (with blade LFP) on April 05. There are also dozens of BYD PHEVs operating at very high C-rate going up in flame every year.
1
@JC-PSC we are talking a completely different ball game. The Chinese gov't spends over $270+B in fossile fuel subsidies alone every year to support cheap energy and overcapacity -- it's also the largest consumer of coals with 55% of global coal consumption. Not everyone is endowed with hydro or thermal. The US is also a net exporter of oil now and far superior to Canada's sand oil.
1
@JC-PSC LOL. Canada is not subsidizing the US oil consumption. Canada's oil is sold at discount compared to WTI because it's heavy crude, expensive to refine, difficult to market this elsewhere.
1
@xunqianbaidu6917 >> that change will take decades.<< Not decades, a few years.
1
@directxxxx71 >> No EV makers are profitable yet in the whole world except Tesa and BYD . << Is BYD's EV business really profitable? I thought their profit comes from mining and refining where margin is as high as 55+%, not from EV making.
1
@Hhhh22222-w >> stress test by flooding the market << except that the CCP doesn't believe in market. Remember that all foreign EV/batteries companies were required to give up their IP rights (ie, the right to assert IP ownership against local Chinese companies infringing on their invention) in exchange for access to China's NEV market since 2015. Once they were let in after making that concession, the CCP make sure that NEV subsidies were given only to EVs with battery from domestic companies to ensure that no foreign battery companies could compete and only few chosen (eg, BYD/CATL) could survive in their "market."
1
@yerri5567 >> The rest simple dont have the infrastructure ready to produce EVs at mass scale, at least not within the next 5 years << In the US, there will be at least 400+GWh new battery production capacity coming online by 2025-2026. Also consider that China's EV sales look greater b/c their EVs are much smaller in battery capacity and range. >> even if they made a decision today, China would have another 5 years to mass produce their cars to further bring down their costs, which is another advantage.<< The decisions have already been made the past 18 months. It usually takes between 30 to 36 months from a EV OEM signing a contract with EV battery makers (and other supply-chain) to mass-production. As I said, by 2025-2026, expect 500+GWh in total production capacity when batteries at much lower price and steady supply become available in the US and another 300-400GWh in the EU. Some forecast even potential oversupply by 2027 or so. >> Other advantages being another 5 years of R&D. R&D is crucial when it comes to battery tech. While others are focused on Lithium batteries, China is now focused on Sodium batteries << Japan and South Korea have been at this for the past 30 years -- and are far ahead of China in technology. China's strength is in mass-manufacturing in, not in the underlying tech. The development and testing cycles for any new battery tech are much longer; anything fresh out of lab now isn't going to be available for mass-adoption for at least 5-7 years, if and only if they are truely meritorious and backed by enough industry players. I do hope mass-volume sodium for low-end EVs takes off, so it could free up lithium for high-energy batteries.
1
@yerri5567 >> Why are you so fixated on "one" race". << Sure, China "won" in China, not in the US or the EU. Why so fixated on one country, especially when the EV growth would be much greater in those regions and China is surely likely to be kept away from them -- ever heard of the IRA, or the EU probe of China's anti-dumping and illegal subsidies?
1
@CheesyMez >> China has a 20 year advantage, and the US is barely getting battery manufacturers up and running. << The US is not really going to compete in the EV battery race. South Korea and Japan are so far ahead that it doesn't make sense to start now -- instead the US is working with them to build their own battery infrastrcture. We are talking around at least 400+GWh new battery production capacity in the US by 2025-2026. Not sure why you have the impression that China is "20 year advantage" in anything when in fact they still years behind SK and JP. >> the race was to get mass market EVs, its over, China has done that, << The world probably needs something like 2-4 TGw to convert all ICEs to EVs in the developed world and we are now at about 200-250Ghw, or not even 1/10 of the way there. But, sure, if that makes you feel better. LOL >> since the Chinese market has much lower standards in terms of car performance compared to somewhere like the US, << I can't speak to their quality, but China's EV policies thus far has been geared towards electrifying low-range, urban driving vehicles, which is what LFP is for. They have much greater challenge converting rural China in sparsely populated regions with lesser power charging infrastructure.
1
@CheesyMez >> In terms of mass producing affordable EVs, China was the first to do that, << I'm a bit confused: first you claim the term "race" is a stupid term, but continue to frame China's NEV policy as a success b/c of being "first." So which is it? >> China was the first to do that, due to a combination of factors. << Yes, that "combinating of factors" included making sure that no foreign EV battery competitors had access to China's EV market since 2015 -- ie, outright ban (no permit) from entering their NEV market and no tax credit/subsidy to EVs with foreign batteries, even if they were made in China to protect China's own champions, eg CATL/BYD, in a market where as much as 40% of initial EV cost was subsidized. >> this includes americans having a very limited pool of options when it comes to EVs, << Contrary to China's EV market whose choice of the EV battery tech was largely limited by the CCP, the US doesn't dictate what to make or buy. The US consumers likewise have access to the best tech determined by the market. >>and that the large tax credits are only available for cars with domestic made batteries.<< See my above comment about re: subsidies/tax credit. You seem to be ok when China does it, but all upset when it's done elsewhere, why double-standard? Now, the irony here is that, the US policy makers are imitating China's "success," by making sure that no Chinese battery company set their foot in the door or their battery receive tax credits. This would ensure that they develop their own self-reliant domestic battery industry/supply-chain with superior battery tech chosen by the market, not by the gov't. The EU's recent probe of China's anti-dumping/subsidies is likewise trying to correct the market distortion created by China's misguided quest for market domination.
1
@yerri5567 >> The future might not be lithium batteries. Sodium batteries might be the new best thing << sodium can't replace high energy dense batteries in EV application -- will possibly replace LFP in ESS and hopefully mass-volume entry-level, low-range EVs.
1
@yerri5567 >> But cars need not to be high density << Sure, cars in Singapore don't need to be high density; EV's aren't just for ctiy dwellers.
1
@emontv9080 >> Its the process of extraction that's hard ... << It's not that the process is difficult, but that the most popular brine extraction method is slow and takes as long as months to a few years.
1
@yerri5567 >> Sodium batteries offer at least 300km range << Sodium is far less efficient with shorter lifespan. It has its uses such as cheap ESS, but not in most EV applications.
1
@yerri5567 if China wants to push sodium EVs domestically, that's fine. That's going to free up precious lithium for high energy batteries for everyone else.
1
@yerri5567 >> Just because you might not doesnt mean others wont. << Just because China wants it, doesn't mean others do too.
1
@yerri5567 : undeveloped countries don't have the electric infrastructure to support EVs at scale.
1
@yerri5567 :>> Just charge at home, simple!<< Yeah, sure, why don't they just charge at a nearby nuclear power generator?
1
@najibyarzerachic : you don't live in an underdeveloped country if the rate of electrification in your country is 100%.
1