Comments by "Golag Is watching you" (@golagiswatchingyou2966) on "Good Times Bad Times"
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This is a pretty good video with some details missing or let out.
For starters it was the German empire during ww1 that revived the Polish and central European states from Russian rule.
Secondly the term "from Lisabon to Vlodivostok" is not a core part of European or even French policy making but rather a phrase of optimism and potential of closer economic ties with Russia, this was said before the 2022 invasion, during that time Russia was becoming more economically tied with the west and was showing signs of modernisation, all of that progress has now pretty much been swept away, thus making the phrase useless.
Third France has been most vocal of trying to tie both German and French national security and economic interests together, anyone who has studied European history knows that Europe destroyed itself because of wars and national interest conflicting with eachother, the primary goal of the EU and Franco-German alliance has been to centralize power and policy to act in a collective interest for Europe as a whole with mixed results, the question is will Europe fall apart again into minor spheres of influence? Or can they solidify into something stronger? While many say it can't there are some signs of cooporation and development on this front, sadly these processes take time and effort in a world that's suddenly changing very quickly and with big players who already cleared this phrase on easy mode, mostly the US, China, India and Russia to a less degree.
There has to come a change in Europe, the question is from who and how, the USA can't be fully trusted, their loyalty only lies in how it benefits their national interest which is balanced by needing both a strong Europe but divided enough to not act against it's interests, despite their big military support for central Europe, it's in economic ties where long term interest of these nations lie, after Russian defeat the defence spending will drop and US interest will shift to other fronts, leaving only Germany and France to fill the void.
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@sblbb929 by that logic you would think the USA as a nation can't exist or Brazil, or India or even China, differences don't matter that much anymore, in the past levels of technology and the people themselves tore apart the established orders because they did not feel represented, most of these nations weren't democratic, they weren't liberal or even understanding of national interests.
a Federation of European nation states does not mean an erasing of cultures, languages or people, it means a defending of these things on a pan European scale, people in germany are effected by migration through greece, Poland is threatened by Russia which effects the baltics, Finland might be next if Ukraine or Hungary gets puppeted, the USA might abandon Europe at some point, what then? what if France wants to take over all of Europe? who could stop them then? Germany? all these issues can be solved through a federation of European nations, so that each national interest becomes the pan-national interest of this new federation, this is how the USA became a superpower, they were first seen as ''these united states'' and over time (and a civil war) they became ''the united states'' it is not inevitable but thinking it can't work just means you have not tried hard enough.
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@tonyhawk94 the thing is many of them have actually worked, just that they got destroyed by outside forces or they failed to evolve beyond the point they were created.
The nation of Germany for example was created by first loose confederation and then federalization, the whole ww1 and ww2 conflicts were about it working so well and expanded the reach of the nation that other powers feared it, same with France, same with the Hastatic league.
The reason why the USA became a federation ironically is because they had few enemies around them and because France helped them to secure their independence, thus they could expand and expand without much fear of anyone trying to wage a massive war to try and stop them which thus far has been the case for most of Europe.
There is also the issue that before, Europe was already expanding all around the world, the need for federalisme did not exist because they were the rulers of the world and thus federalization was not nessisary, untill Germany came to be and changed the dynamics of geo-politics.
Make no mistake if the EU becomes a federation it will most likely have massive effects on geo-politics, will that outcome be good or bad? Who knows? However doing nothing or reverting back to 20th century nation states in the 21th century is bound to cause stagnation, decline and frankly humiliation for all of Europe, not just the EU.
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I think the only way for the EU to become a federation and to justify it, is if the leaders of these nations can convince the people that doing so will bring them more security, freedom, wealth, prestige and a greater sense of identity.
however, both the leaders and people don't seem that keen on being more free, they don't always act in ways that bring about more wealth, the identities are somewhat fragmented and they fear eachother sometimes more than greater threats that loom beyond their borders, as for prestige, most people don't find this motivating at all but the elites most certainly see the value and abilities possible in doing so.
Europe is at a crossroads, is it going to try and embrace the future, shape it's own destiny and work for it's own self interest or is it going to collapse, stagnate and decline into nothing while being the play things of other powers more concerned with their great game instead of paying attention to European civilization, only time will tell but I do think and hope we can create a federal Europe that can lead us to a better future.
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@Pincer88 that's a bit untrue to a degree, yes the current organisation how they are today would not exist without NATO but that's not to say organisations like them would not exist, in fact the EU is not much different from Germany's goals in ww1 which was to create a network of nations and create a international body for economic and political matters, it was to be called ''MittelEuropa'' in which Germany would be the main economic and military engine of Europe and then grow, compete and unify the rest of Europe under it's sphere (kind of like the EU is today) in many ways that's even what the nazi's wanted just with a lot more slavery, genocide and settler based colonialism.
the current world order is because of the cold war and the policies set by the USA and the USSR, this destroyed the old order of European nations and thus we were forced to change and adapt to this new reality, now we've all benefited a lot from this new order and it's mostly thanks to the USA but also the invention of nuclear weapons, this made wars much more impossible and working together much more nessisary and profitable but we should not forget how strange this new reality actually is from most of human history and also don't forget it can't last forever, before ww1 no major industrial nation was at war with eachother for over 98 years I believe and then ww1 and ww2 happened, the current long peace can't last forever and when it happens new political systems and governments will be nessisary, it is inevitable.
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@robertkeaney9905 it's more so due to scale of industry, USA dominating after ww2 and kept that edge sharp by not being involved in many wars but maintaining their industrial base and by the luck of having their main rival be the communist USSR which while somewhat competent with its designs quickly fell out of favor and then collapsed.
USA does not need to wage wars or have proxy conflicts to maintain that edge, in fact over the last few decades the USA has been doing exactly that thing that has made them lose that edge which is transfering a lot of industry to China, waging wars on their own dime with little benefit, while ignoring issues at home and lowering the values of a competent military leadership that reduces it's effect on their enemies, Victor David Hanson had a great article a few days ago on why the US military is slipping in it's recruitment numbers, the trust in it's military and those that lead it.
The USA is still the worlds super power but time as of now, is not on their side, the USA needs to change gears if it wants to maintain that edge, I think they will change but that's not inevitable and in the meantime the enemies of the USA will continue to adapt and learn.
The only good news has been the recent Russia Ukraine conflict, lots of weapon deals, F-35 deals, new interest in NATO alliance and two of their potential competition hindering eachothers economies and revealing weakness in the Russian army.
When things get tough for the americans, god throws them a bone it seems, when things get tough for the Europeans, god adds another war to the list.
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I keep seeing people doomposting and repeating the same story of that Trump is somehow anti Ukraine, pro Putin or anti NATO.
there is no evidence for this, on the contrary Trump's actions seems to indicate he will likely be much harder on both Putin and Zelensky.
both sides want to argue for a maximalist positive outcome for their war, Zelensky wants all of Ukraine whole, Putin wanted to destroy Ukraine as a concept but is willing to settle for half of the country, the question is can the west bring both to the table to hammer out some kind of peace deal that leaves both sides unhappy but with some form of peace? or is escalation inevitable?
personally I think escalation is inevitable for a number of reasons but mostly because Russia views this war as existential to them and thus any backtracking on this by their political elites seems impossible, it's also the case that Russia has a number of ''allies'' who are in conflict as well, Iran, China and a number of unstable regions like the Sahel, India-Pakistan region and the wider middle-east.
either the war escalates in the coming years or is postponed for a bit longer but it's inevitable that it will happen, lets hope our leaders are able to not get everything destroyed.
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@stormysavage1677 no nation has ever benefited from prolonged warfare, the US wasted billions, upon billions in foreign wars and it did not improve the middle-east very much or at all, not to mention places in north africa that have become downright third world countries when before they were closer to second or first world, millions upon millions of people have died.
The costs have been huge, though you are correct in terms of arms and material the USA has plenty more to spare, almost a drop in the bucket but what it lost is much more significant and the bane of most empires in their history, the believe in their own nation and most of the goodwill of friends and foes alike, most of Europe after 9/11 were fully on board with supporting the USA and their wars, feeling justified in their actions but now most Europeans outright see the USA as a threat for stability in the world and more of a frenemie than a strong ally, we may work on the same goals to deal with Russia but the love between Europe and the USA has waned quite a bit.
the USA should spend less time waging wars and more time letting other nations fight wars using their weapons, right now the USA is making a killing in the Russian-Ukraine war and actually making NATO stronger and trying to stand up to China but it took a long while to get to this point and many more problems will come once again from the middle-east and africa as a result of bad policies in the early 2000s.
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@emonlevircni4617 that's because all multicultral founded nations are unstable and authoritarian, Russia, Yugoslavia, Brazil.
Diversity is the norm in most civilizations, unity among people is the exception and has a wide range of factors, the biggest of which is property rights and indeed language.
Brazil with it's diversity and history of slavery has made it very difficult for themselves to move beyond, corruption, violence and authoritarianism is the norm there.
In Europe, not so much, yes the language barriers exist but is less of an issue since most nations speak english as a second language, they have pretty firm but not perfect property rights, as such and with changing world they are probably more able to unify than Brazil would be but only time can tell for sure, it depends on what people want of course.
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@whitephoenixofthecrown2099 1. you be surpised at how many babies can be born if the men find wives outside of China and the government takes away most woman's right, western nations with mostly positive policies (like Sweden and France) have gotten it around 2.1/2,2 China could in theory get it up way more and faster.
2. millions of people try and get to Europe every year, there are plenty of people, the main question is if the people want to go to China and if they can assimulate to the culture.
3. yes, China is investing more into automation then many western nations are.
4. depends on what they can get away with and how situations develop around the world, they could easily annex Mongolia, if Russia collapses far east asia, Taiwan, North Korea if that regime starts to become unstable and perhaps meddle in civil wars or proxy conflicts to destabalize regions and give refugees a one way trip to China.
5. ???? you want young people don't you? elderly are a burden but they tend to self delete over time and with automation can reduce burdens on the economy.
China is unlikely to become a superpower overnight just like the USA spend decades being the worlds biggest economy before turning that economic power into hard power, USA might try and start a conflict or sanctions to prevent China's rise further, USA might collapse, China might collapse, world can change, nothing is certain anymore.
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I think this is a rather incoherent pipe dream if im honest.
Like I understand and agree that France and Germany have weak, putinist leaders who don't have the brains or will to see the big picture and are still pretending like this won't end any other way than the collapse of Russia as a state or a complete replacement of the Russian leadership with a weakened and humiliated Russia.
But the idea that the UK of all nations is going to lead some economic and military block/alliance is just a very bad joke, they can barely controle their own borders, aren't economically that connected to any other nation besides the EU and would have to replace the EU which has decades upon decades of further evolved laws, regulations, trade deals, cultural projects and joint military projects all because the current leadership of France and Germany are somewhat out of touch in a conflict between Russia and Ukraine? Really?
France and Germany have already send some heavy weapons, Ukrainian soldiers are getting training with some modern weapons systems in Germany, as well as old weapons systems for Ukraine to use, now is this great? Not really but it's not nothing and sooner or later these nations leaders will have to come to terms that their big investments into Russia and with Putin have failed and were a huge mistake which some people warned about for years and now they have to really come to terms that they need to step up or lose faith on a big scale.
What's shamefull is that it's taking them so long, they should have seen the writing on the walls at least 2-3 months ago, though they might be able to redeem themselves by making Ukraine a potential EU member and esspecialy providing funds for a kind of Ukrainian marshall plan, EU membership within 5-8 years is a bit too fast but within 10 years with proper effort by both the EU and Ukraine should be reasonable.
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AI is most certainly going to change the world and put most people out of a job, more then AI restrictions we need laws based on profits and use of AI to be monitored to see compensation for society in loss in productivity, wealth creation and loss of controle of data, you can't trust the government with it or corporations, we need a firm third party to enforce influence and controle over what AI is used for, who profits from it and redistribute a certain degree of wealth if not letting the AI run free would result in the loss of freedom, wealth and agency.
the idea of free market capitalism works in a world of equal human beings judged by merritocratic means of selection in the market but with AI you can in essence create super human machines that don't tire, that can work for much longer and in ways that humans could never compete with, sometimes for a bargain of the cost, expecting humans to be able to compete with this, is expecting pigs to build a spaceship.
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