Comments by "Golag Is watching you" (@golagiswatchingyou2966) on "Is Russia Becoming Irrelevant?" video.
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@craigkdillon pretty over simplification but there is some truth in it, as Russia came from the former USSR they and their puppet states suffered greatly and lost a lot of capitalistic minded people, Putin sought to change that in his first few terms, creating a large growth in the economy and improving relationships with other countries, right now Russia exports a lot of gas, raw resources, oil, weapons, fighter aircrafts, food and lumber.
Russia however suffers a lot still from corruption, is less free than western nations in terms of market and still has an authoritarian government, combine this with the USA being more hostile towards them, sanctions on their main markets, low oil prices and collapsing population growth and it's easy to see why Russia is not doing so good.
Fact is there is very little they can do about it, USA and the west will remain worried about what they do, China keeps rising in economic power, their population will keep shrinking and few new business will grow in Russia.
Best bet for them is to get closer to the European sphere and finding new ways to trade with nations like China.
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@craigkdillon well yes and no, Putin is not an idiot from the perspective of someone who wants to stay in power, however he is a crook and an idiot in trying to create the best country Russia could be but seeing as Russia used to be the USSR that little progress he did do were leaps from what they used to be.
as for Russia itself, it's a different type of country than say the netherlands or germany, where both have stable cultures, governments, low corruption and access to sea lanes and trade routes, Russia is huge, very difficult to move goods to or from, frozen ports for most of the year and has multiple ethnic groups and cultures who in a more democratic and western style situation would likely move towards independence and seperatist nationalism.
Russia is a bit of a relic in a new age trying to find it's place while wanting to hold on to the old ideas of being a super power, Putin is keeping the country down but his replacement might do so as well, there realy is no easy solution for Russia, at some point they have to bite the bullet and accept the world has changed and get a public as well as elitist movement to change the country and make peace with the west but since that is also at the cost of military security is very hard to pull off.
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@craigkdillon yeah I agree, though Stalin did suppressed and killed many more people than the tsar his rule were about the same, except perhaps replacing the orthodox church with himself.
Yes Putin has recreated the orthodox church but even further he has been trying to embrace islam as well as they are a growing demografic which clashes with more nationalistic people like Nevalny (the western media likes to display him as some pro democratic, anti authoritarian politician but he is realy a ultra nationalist)
Everyone can pass through the sea lanes but what can they sell? Cars? Microchips? Bikes? I have no idea and the USA can blockade any progress they make with sanctions, because resources are so nessisary for western nations these lines of flow are less likely to be targeted with sanctions and can be used as political bargaining chips for other issues, it's why Nord stream 2 with Germany is a big deal because it makes Germany less energy independent.
Further Russia has so many problems all at once, demografics, corruption, military security, distrusted by other nations, seperatist movements, all at once and Putin as a authoritarian leader is more focused on staying in power, it's very delicate and balanced between reform and holding on to power, once Putin is gone you could see some major changes or a repeat of his policies, who knows for sure?
As for Xi, im not sure actualy how he compares, he's an authoritarian leader for sure, basicaly a bit like Hitler in terms or totalitarian government but China's economy is still growing right? Also demografics problems but in terms of growth still very strong I believe.
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@craigkdillon not sure if that's fully accurate since China has gotten sanctions and trade war with USA due to China's actions yet the same was applied to Europe to a lesser degree, Russia has no warm water ports except the one in Cremea which due to them annexing it in full caused the sanctions to begin with, you also have some trade in the far east but again the distance from western Russia to eastern Russia is huge.
Russia does make things and exports them to European markets but those same markets are in competition with eachother, the US and China, not all countries can make micro chips or smart phones and even if they could they would get out competed with other companies, Russia can only stick with what they are good at which is basic things like food, oil, gas, weapons and so on, the only way for them to diversity their economy would be for their people, economy and government to be stable with stable property rights, the way Russia works just does not support this.
Wealth creation is all about possibilities, capitalism, trade lanes, stable property rights and innovation and Russia has almost non of these things and simply changing the leader won't fix that overnight.
I do wonder what you think would happen if say Russia became more of a legit democracy, had more western values, property rights and perhaps become part of the EU, I know the EU itself does not want Russia to join it but if it by some miracle did would that be possitive for Russia or would it harm both Russia and the EU? Love to hear your thoughts on this.
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@craigkdillon I did not know about the Niger river or Congo river but you are misunderstanding what I mean, I mean water lanes, via rivers or shores gives access to greater trade routes from which civilizations can grow and can create multigenerational wealth, most of Africa is one giant land mass with only few large rivers and no interal shorelines, it's hard to explain but when you look at a map of Europe you see a relatively small land mass with many shorelines with interwoven river systems and canals to give greater access to the seas, the Netherlands is a good example, as is the UK both of which became sea focused trade empires, while countries like Germany and Russia are more land based, though Russia used to have access to the baltic countries and even learned boat building from the Dutch thanks to Peter the great.
The west of Russia is where most of the people are because most early russian civilizations settled near the rivers, it's also where most of their trade takes place, however the north east of Russia is the Frozen Tundra of Siberia and the vast boreal forests beyond, compare that to the USA which habitat and sea access is far more easy to access and is located in a perfect location for trade with asia to the west and Europe and west Africa to the east, along with south america to the south, made even easier with the panama canal.
What im trying to say is sea lanes are the lifeblood of trade which generates wealth, it's not only that of course but it's a measurement of potential of wealth, Kasakstan or western part of China are never going to be as wealthy as the eastern part which is closer to the sea.
Likewise Russia has huge amount of land but very little shoreline which they can use, which limits their access to trade, they could solve this issue by investing in better trains and gaining better access to western markets which would then give oppertunity to invest in new Russian products produced in their countries, though not all western nations would like this as well, it's complicated but in most cases easier trade and free markets does produce more wealth.
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