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@tammyscott3706
Harris leads by four points in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, a one-point decline from her standing in its two previous polls.
Trump trails Harris 51% to 49% in a Harvard CAPS/Harris survey of registered voters released Monday, after the two were tied in the groups’ September survey.
Trump and Harris were tied at 48% in a new NBC poll of registered voters released Sunday, while an ABC/Ipsos poll, also released Sunday, shows Harris with a two-point (50%-48%) advantage among likely voters, within the ABC poll’s 2.5-point margin of error—a shift after both ABC and NBC showed Harris with a roughly five-point lead last month.
A third poll out Sunday from CBS/YouGov showed Harris leading Trump 51%-48% with likely voters—slightly tighter than Harris’ 52%-48% lead last month—while Harris has a narrower 50%-49% edge in the seven battleground states.
Other polls show the vice president with a larger edge, though the race has tightened in recent weeks: Harris is up four points over Trump, 49% to 45%, in an Economist/YouGov poll of likely voters released Wednesday, after leading him by five points (49% to 46%) in the groups’ Sept. 30 survey.
Harris is up 49% to 46% in a New York Times/Siena poll out Oct. 8, the first time she’s led Trump in the groups’ polling since July.
Three other polls over the past month—a Quinnipiac survey released Sept. 24, a New York Times/Siena poll out Sept. 19 and a CNN/SSRS poll released Sept. 24—showed Trump and Harris tied, while virtually all other polls show Harris ahead.
Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her edge has decreased slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.
WHO IS FAVORED TO WIN THE ELECTION, HARRIS OR TRUMP?
Harris is favored to win 53 times out of 100, compared to 47 for Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver puts Harris’ odds at 52.2/47.6, writing he’s “never seen an election in which the forecast spent more time in the vicinity of 50/50.”
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