Comments by "PNH 6000" (@PNH-sf4jz) on "The Russian Dude"
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A positive result of the steady provision of Western weapons is that over the period of nearly 2 years the majority of people have had the gradually developing opportunity to see Russia in its true colours.
At the beginning of 2022, there were still people who believed that Russia was just another maligned country that was having a difficult time.
During the intervening 18 months to two years, the majority of people in the Free World have had the opportunity to see exactly how vile, vitriolic and malevolent the speech and actions of the Russian political, military and media establishment really are.
Russia's insurgency, invasion and incitement to insurrection in Crimea and the Donbas region in 2014 was inexcusable and totally without justification, except to satisfy Russia's own greed, and desire and intention of imperialist expansion. The Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022 simply compounded an already indefensible atrocity.
I am pleased that the WAR waged by Russia did not culminate more quickly. I believe that many lives of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel have been saved and even greater destruction has been avoided. Had the WAR, waged by Russia against Ukraine, been fought more quickly and aggressively, the Russian response, at each stage, would likely have been hotter and more devastating.
All the Russians from Putin, Lavrov, Peskov, Russian ambassadors Kelin {UK} and Antonov {US}, the media entities, Simonyan, Solovyov, Skabeyeva, Mardan and other media "hosts" and their "guests" and "panelists" have shown and demonstrated how devoid of positive principles and values are the Russian political, military and media establishment, and presumably, a significant proportion of the Russian population.
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine, Absolute Victory 🇺🇦
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During the last two years Putin was changing generals every 3 to 6 months. Most of the Commanders have served in Chechnya, Syria, Georgia, the Transnistrian conflict in Moldova, among others.
-- Alexandr Dvornikov 'The Butcher of Syria'
-- Surgey Surovikin ‘General Armageddon’
"During his short time overseeing the troops in Ukraine, Surovikin was credited with strengthening coordination and reinforcing control.
"But he also announced a withdrawal in November from Kherson, one of the biggest and most important cities Russian forces had captured during the conflict.
Surovikin's demotion signalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin was not fully satisfied with his performance.
-- Valery Gerasimov
"The move not only made Gerasimov directly accountable for the fate of the campaign but also in effect demoted General Sergey Surovikin, nicknamed “General Armageddon” by the Russian media for his reputed ruthlessness.
"Surovikin’s demotion came after only three months on the job, and he becomes Gerasimov’s deputy along with two other generals
– Oleg Salyukov and
-- Alexey Kim.
-- Gennady Zhidko
The Russians claim "The only rule of WAR is the outcome". See the reference below to bombing hospitals.
"The 1999–2000 battle of Grozny was the siege and assault of the Chechen capital Grozny by Russian forces, lasting from late 1999 to early 2000. The siege and fighting left the capital devastated. In 2003, the United Nations called Grozny the most destroyed city on Earth. Between 5,000 and 8,000 civilians were killed during the siege, making it the bloodiest episode of the Second Chechen War."
It is really amazing that we see the same types of events statements and aggressive military action from and by Russia, time and time again.
https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia
List of wars involving Russia since dissolution of USSR in 1991
1991–1993 Georgian Civil War
1992 Transnistria War
1992 East Prigorodny Conflict North Ossetia-Alania
1992–1997 Tajikistani Civil War
1993 Russian spillover into Azerbaijan
1994–1996 First Chechen War
1999 War of Dagestan
1999–2009 Second Chechen War
2008 Russo-Georgian War
2009–2017 Insurgency in the North Caucasus
2014–present Russo-Ukrainian War
2015–present Russian military intervention in the Syrian Civil War
2018–present Central African Republic Civil War
A web-search of "Russian bombing of hospitals" returns the following results
{Adding the name "Syria" generates even more results also in different countries}:
-- Russian strikes on hospitals during the Russian invasion of ... Wikipedia
-- Russian bombings of hospitals and healthcare - Ukraine ReliefWeb 10 Mar 2022
-- Revealed: how Russia deliberately targeted Kherson's ... The Guardian 20 Sept 2023
-- Russia's 226 attacks on health-care targets in Ukraine are ... NPR 16 Mar 2022
-- Ukraine: Over 700 recorded attacks on health facilities and ... BMJ by E Mahase · 2023
-- WHO says 64 hospitals attacked since Russian invasion of ... Al Jazeera 24 Mar 2022
-- Report: Nearly one in every 10 hospitals in Ukraine have ... CNN.com 21 Feb 2023
-- Destruction and Devastation: One Year of Russia's Assault ... Physicians for Human Rights 21 Feb 2023
-- Syrian and Russian forces targeting hospitals as a strategy ... Amnesty International 3 Mar 2016
-- Russia's Long History of Bombing Hospitals New Lines Magazine 11 Mar 2022
-- At Least 707 Attacks on Health Care in Ukraine During One ... Physicians for Human Rights 21 Feb 2023
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@spicesmuggler2452 The Russian military fighting for Bakhmut for how many months ? Russian forces have been trying to take the city for over six months.
There is no need to divert attention; six months of fighting for Bakhmut is enough. And enough is enough. Russia has gained the huge distance of 20 milles {32 km}, from Popasna to Bakhmut, in six months, at the cost of many hundreds of lives each day.
Another consideration is the routing of the Russians from Kyiv, many Ukrainian people fighting with only improvised weapons like "Molotov cocktails". To be generous we may say that the Russians retreated or withdrew. The same applied to Kharkiv and Kherson where the Russians magnanimously, with a "gesture of goodwill" retreated from major portions of those oblasts.
I would think that the Russians would want to forget all about Bakhmut, since they have gained so little ground at the cost of so many lives. However, if the Russians do not care about their military personnel or the mobilised prisoners or the members of Prigozhin's private military company, the Wagner group, then those lives really don't matter to the Russians, Those lives were expendable to achieve the goal, the military objective.
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No, the transcript of what T.R.Dude said, reads as follows:
"And then he claimed that all these western sanctions had absolutely no effect against the Russian economy, which is absolutely prevailing right now.
"The effect of the sanctions was so negligible, according to him, that even the most common people of Russia, they didn't feel anything whenever their yachts and palaces were taken away.
"And, yes, you heard it right; regular people, yachts and palaces. I have no idea in which world he lives when the regular average salary is about $800.00 per month, but this is what he said, literally."
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@nicolaasstempels8207
In an attempt to speed up the culmination of the WAR in Russia's favour, Russia apparently put their military trainers into the field last year, 2022. Very likely, that is the reason why their recruits and mobilised personnel are considered to have very limited and inadequate training for combat.
Consequently, they use and conserve what remains of their best troops as blocking and backing troops, while sending the less trained personnel to the front. It is said that more than than half of their elite VDV {paratroops} have been eliminated.
The Russians started out with fresh troops and more than three times the numbers and higher quality of land-based hardware, than the Ukrainians, in their 2nd and full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The Russians also had overwhelming air superiority with helicopters, fighter jets and heavy bombers. The Russians had sunk or commandeered all of Ukraine's navy boats and ships.
The Ukrainians had some older soviet style tanks, a few planes and helicopters, shoulder mounted anti-tank weapons and the civilians were fighting with Molotov-cocktails hurled into the air-intakes and turrets of the tanks. This was after Russia had demilitarised Ukraine by Agreements, Memoranda and Treaties between 1991 and 1997. However, it is interesting to see how things have changed.
Apparently, Russia and Ukraine are presently at about parity with their land-based hardware and weapons. Russia still has large numbers of aircraft, though we know that their Black Sea fleet has had to sail from Sevastopol, East to the Port of Novorossiysk.
The following figures provide some perspective on losses. Ukraine had less to lose at the start, but Russia has lost three times as much as Ukraine to the present.
"This list only includes {confirmed} destroyed {hardware} vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
Source: ORYX website "Hardware Losses in Ukraine" {Confirmed}
** Ukraine ** Total Hardware & Tank Losses 24 Feb 2022 to 1 Oct 2023
Total - 4786, of which: destroyed: 3274, damaged: 373, abandoned: 186, captured: 953
Tanks - 695, of which destroyed: 466, damaged: 56, abandoned: 40, captured: 133
** Russia ** Total Hardware & Tank Losses 24 Feb 2022 to 1 Oct 2023
Total - 13285, of which: destroyed: 9241, damaged: 597, abandoned: 542, captured: 2905
Tanks - 2513, of which destroyed: 1649, damaged: 140, abandoned: 176, captured: 548
Russian Naval Ships and Submarines (19, of which destroyed: 12, damaged: 7) {now probably more}
1 Project 1164 Slava-class guided missile cruiser: (1, Moskva, sunk)
1 Project 22800 Karakurt-class corvette: (1, B-802 'Askold', destroyed)
1 Project 636.3 Improved Kilo-class submarine: (1, B-237 'Rostov-na-Donu', damaged beyond economical repair)
5 Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged)
1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 640 small patrol boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 1171 Tapir-class landing ship: (1, BDK-65 'Saratov', destroyed)
3 Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship: (1, 'Minsk', damaged beyond economical repair) (1, damaged) (2, 'Olenegorsky Gornyak', damaged)
2 Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft: (1, destroyed) (1, damaged)
1 Project 1176 Ondatra-class landing craft: (1, damaged)
1 Project 22870 rescue tug: (1, SB-739 V'asily Bekh', destroyed)
1 Project 266M Natya-class minesweeper: (1, damaged)
🇺🇦 Victory to Ukraine 🇺🇦
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I believe that the supply of ATACMS at this time has been timely and neither too soon nor too late. The Russian military hardware has been reduced to a stage where their responses are now severely limited. Had the ATACMS been supplied sooner, the Russians may have "pulled out all stops", and attacked with even greater ferocity than that with which they are now capable. The consequence would inevitably have been even higher numbers of Ukrainian lives, both of civilians and military personnel lost, and greater destruction and devastation.
The Russians have surely shown, right from their initial invasion in 2014, that they adhere to absolutely no laudable principles when waging WAR. For this reason, it was imperative that Russian military capability, including their navy, should be diminished as far as possible before, what we hope to be, Ukraine's final major strikes.
Russian Naval Ships and Submarines (16, of which destroyed: 11, damaged: 5) February 2022 to October 2023
1 Project 1164 Slava-class guided missile cruiser: (1, Moskva, sunk)
1 Project 636.3 Improved Kilo-class submarine: (1, B-237 'Rostov-na-Donu', {Rostov-on-Don} damaged beyond economical repair)
5 Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged)
1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 640 small patrol boat: (1)
1 Project 1171 Tapir-class landing ship: (1, BDK-65 'Saratov', destroyed)
3 Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship: (1, 'Minsk', damaged beyond economical repair) (1, damaged) (2, 'Olenegorsky Gornyak', damaged)
1 Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 22870 rescue tug: (1, SB-739 V'asily Bekh', destroyed)
1 Project 266M Natya-class minesweeper: (1, damaged)
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Russia has taken no meaningful area of land in the last twelve months after losing half of what they had illegally occupied in March 2022 when they retreated, withdrew and were routed from Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson. And Russia is still losing hardware, including land-based hardware and equipment, aircraft and even ships of their Black Sea fleet as well as tens of thousands of their future posterity in terms of the personnel that are dying on the fronts.
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here.
Russia - Total hardware and Tank losses 24 Feb 2022 to 1 Nov 2023
Total - 12863, of which: destroyed: 8911, damaged: 554, abandoned: 498, captured: 2900
Tanks - 2437, of which destroyed: 1591, damaged: 139, abandoned: 157, captured: 550
Ukraine - Total hardware and Tank losses 24 Feb 2022 to 1 Nov 2023
Total - 4666, of which: destroyed: 3179, damaged: 354, abandoned: 172, captured: 960
Tanks - 682, of which destroyed: 451, damaged: 55, abandoned: 35, captured: 141
Russian Naval Ships and Submarines (16, of which destroyed: 11, damaged: 5)
1 Project 1164 Slava-class guided missile cruiser: (1, Moskva, sunk)
1 Project 636.3 Improved Kilo-class submarine: (1, B-237 'Rostov-na-Donu', damaged beyond economical repair)
5 Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged)
1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 640 small patrol boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 1171 Tapir-class landing ship: (1, BDK-65 'Saratov', destroyed)
3 Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship: (1, 'Minsk', damaged beyond economical repair) (1, damaged) (2, 'Olenegorsky Gornyak', damaged)
1 Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 22870 rescue tug: (1, SB-739 V'asily Bekh', destroyed)
1 Project 266M Natya-class minesweeper: (1, damaged)
Russia: Total aircraft losses - 539, of which: destroyed: 369, damaged: 36, captured: 134
Combat Aircraft (82, of which destroyed: 78, damaged: 4)
Strategic Bombers (3, of which destroyed: 1, damaged: 2)
Command And Control Aircraft (2, of which destroyed: 1, damaged: 1)
Transport Aircraft (6, of which destroyed: 5, damaged: 1)
Helicopters (131, of which destroyed: 101, damaged: 28, captured: 2)
Ukraine: Total aircraft losses - 325, of which: destroyed: 231, damaged: 4, captured: 73
Combat Aircraft (71, of which destroyed: 70, damaged: 1)
Jet Trainers (2, of which destroyed: 2)
Transport Aircraft (4, of which destroyed: 3, captured: 1)
Helicopters (37, of which destroyed: 33, damaged: 1, captured: 3)
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All the B52's have been rebuilt and upgraded, a number of times, in accordance with contemporary requirements and specifications. They are most certainly not the same B52's that existed during the 1950's and 60's. Details of the upgrades are easily accessible by websearch. All of the information shown below is freely available on the WEB. Any comparrison between the current B-52's and the T12 or E12 anti-tank gun is absolutely ridiculous and ludicrous.
The Boeing B-52 Stratofortress is an American long-range, subsonic, jet-powered strategic bomber. The B-52 was designed and built by Boeing, which has continued to provide support and upgrades. It has been operated by the United States Air Force since the 1950s. Wikipedia
What is the youngest B-52 bomber?
The youngest B-52 left Boeing's Wichita factory in 1962, meaning the 76 B-52Hs that remain in service are, technically, at least 59 years old.
The B-52H is the only version still in service. The U.S. Air Force contracted 62 B-52H Stratofortresses, serial numbers 60-0001 through 60-0062, on 6 May 1960.
Will the B-52 ever be retired?
Image result for why is the b-52 still in service
Many believe the B-52 will still be in service for its 100-year milestone; the long-range, subsonic bomber used by the United States Air Force is expected to remain in service through the 2040s.
A new computer-generated rendering from Boeing offers a window into what the U.S. Air Force's fleet of B-52H bombers will look like after receiving a host of upgrades in the coming years. The company had previously revealed that the next iteration of the B-52 – which may ultimately receive the designation B-52J or B-52K – would feature noticeably larger underwing engine pods to accommodate new Rolls-Royce F130 turbofans. But the new rendering goes well beyond that, offering a freshened-up, more streamlined, reworked Stratofortress.
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The Russian "2nd strongest military in the world" has proved itself to be otherwise. Consider the retreats, withdrawals and routs from Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson. All this when Russia was at its highest strength.
Kherson, where Putin and the Russian political, military and media establishment said "Russia would be forever." A few weeks later, the Russians withdrew from the city of Kherson and retreated to the left bank of the Dnieper River, where they are now being pursued by the Ukrainians.
{The Russian Armed Forces, which had occupied the city since 2 March 2022, withdrew and retreated to the Left-Bank of the Kherson Oblast over the course of 9–11 November 2022.}
And all of this occurred before most of the more advanced NATO specification hardware was supplied to Ukraine in 2023 and NATO training of Ukrainian military personnel had been completed. Some may question why there have not been greater advances by the Ukrainians. As one commenter wrote, "Why move when the enemy simply keeps running into your fist". A fairly graphic illustration of attritional warfare.
Russia may have greater numbers of men to fill their ranks, but they would hardly be referred to as "superior" when matched against Ukrainian, NATO Defensive Alliance trained personnel. As much as half of Russia's better trained VDV {paratroops} (1)(2)(3) have already been eliminated in the WAR against Ukraine. Russia has even gone to the extent, in desperation last year, of sending their military trainers to the front lines. Consequently, the reason that most of the recently mobilised personnel are considered to have only very basic and limited preparation for combat. The more experienced and qualified personnel are favoured as backing troops, while recent conscripts, particularly from the outer ethnic regions of the Russian Federation, are used in "meat-wave attacks". Another example of Russian genocide.
The producers and manufacturers of the so-called Russian "modern military hardware" appear to be approaching the stage where they will accomplish very few sales in the future, because so much of their hardware has failed in it primary function. For example, air-defense systems that are annihilated by the very missiles that they are supposed to intercept. The same applies to their tanks {Amata, T-90 and 72's, etc.}. In addition to hardware performance issues, Russia's WAR against Ukraine has created logistical problems in being able to manufacture and supply military hardware for other countries.
"India and Russia have had a long-standing security cooperation partnership, with India relying heavily on Russian weapons and equipment for its armed forces. However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the Make in India initiative in 2014 {interesting to note the year, 2014} to develop the country’s defense industry and reduce dependence on imports. The war in Ukraine has caused India to accelerate this process and end negotiations or cancel agreements with Russia on several weapon system acquisitions."
Source: Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs.
(1) The heavy losses of an elite Russian regiment in Ukraine By Mark Urban Diplomatic and defence editor, Newsnight 2 April 2022 Russia-Ukraine war
Image caption, Some of the 39 Russian soldiers from the 331st regiment who are known to have died
"In any war, there are units that distinguish themselves and others that become symbolic of failure. The 331st Guards Parachute Regiment had high hopes of being the first, but now represents the disintegration of Russia's plan for a quick war.
"The regiment's commanding officer, Col Sergei Sukharev, was killed in Ukraine on 13 March, and was posthumously awarded the Hero of the Russian Federation medal. At his funeral, deputy defence minister Gen Yuri Sadovenko said the colonel "lived for the future, for the future of our people, a future without Nazism". {Possibly he died because of Russian Nazism}
Colonel Sergei SukharevImage (source, GTRK-Kostroma)
Image caption, Col Sergei Sukharev, commander of the Kostroma 331st regiment, was also killed
"Casualties among Russian forces are not widely reported in Russia itself, but using open source material, the BBC has pieced together the story of their advance, and found that at least 39 other members of the elite 331st regiment have died."
"The men were part of a column that advanced into Ukraine from Belarus, led by Russia's airborne forces, known by the acronym VDV. Their presence underlined the priority of their objective - advancing on the capital, Kyiv." "That advance swiftly got drawn into a destructive stalemate in districts on the outskirts of Kyiv which soon became synonymous with the viciousness of the war: Bucha, Irpin, and Hostomel."
"Videos that emerged online from these battles showed combat vehicles used by Russian airborne forces with "V" signs painted onto them."
(2) "A top Russian general's rare admission that his elite paratroopers suffered heavy casualties in Ukraine was mysteriously removed"
Jake Epstein Aug 4, 2023, 2:52 AM GMT+8
Image caption: Russian paratroopers during celebrations on Paratroopers Day and Saint Ilyas' Day in front of the Spasskaya Tower on Red Square in Moscow on Wednesday. AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko
--- A top Russian general admitted his elite paratroopers suffered thousands of casualties in Ukraine.
--- But shortly after his disclosure went public, it was mysteriously removed from the internet.
--- Acknowledgment of war losses is rare in Russia, and Moscow often downplay its casualty figures.
"A top Russian general admitted this week that his elite paratroopers suffered thousands of casualties while fighting in Ukraine, only for his disclosure to then be mysteriously removed from the internet."
"It's a rare admission from a senior figure in Moscow's military leadership, which often goes to great lengths to avoid acknowledging or to conceal its battlefield failures, setbacks, and overall losses. "
"Col. Gen. Mikhail Teplinsky, commander of Russia's VDV Airborne Forces, disclosed Wednesday that at least 8,500 of his troops had been wounded in Ukraine since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion more than 17 months ago. The number could actually be significantly higher. The Moscow Times reported on Thursday that Teplinsky's video remarks were initially published to Zvezda, a broadcaster run by the Russian defense ministry."
(3) "Ukraine’s army commander claims 3 elite Russian brigades ‘crushed’ in east"
"Ukraine’s ground forces commander General Oleksandr Syrskyi claims three Russian brigades left with no combat capabilities after fighting in east around Bakhmut."
Image Caption: "An assault unit commander from the 3rd Assault Brigade who goes by the call sign 'Fedia' raises the Ukrainian flag as a symbol of liberation of the frontline village of Andriivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023."
"The 3rd Assault Brigade announced Friday they had recaptured the war-ravaged settlement which lies 10 kilometers (6 miles) south of Russian-occupied city of Bakhmut, in the country's embattled east.
(AP Photo/Alex Babenko)
"The general in command of Ukrainian ground forces said his troops have routed three of the best Russian brigades fighting on the front lines in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine.
"General Oleksandr Syrskyi also said on Monday that the recapture of two eastern Ukrainian villages in recent days – Klishchiivka and Andriivka, both of which are located on higher ground near the destroyed town of Bakhmut – was an important breakthrough."
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine, Absolute Victory 🇺🇦
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@Ni999 Totally agreed and supported.
I generally ignore comments offering simplistic solutions to complex problems; as if no-one in Ukraine or the 60 plus countries supporting and assisting Ukraine, would not have thought of or, at the very least, be considering solutions to the problems being faced. I particularly avoid those where there is antagonism, derision and ridicule involved. With the millions of people on the internet, it is usually not worth responding. However, I acknowledged your post and will add a few of my ideas.
In addition to addressing the immediate problem of planning design and construction of such defensive weapons, is the issue of how many can be or should be made, how they will be disbursed and who will have control of them. They would need to be linked with a radar system and then have the people distributed across all the possible areas where the drones might be targetted, in a country of 44 million people and area of 603,628 km² {10% greater area than France}. And after all that the enemy upgrades their drone weapon with a small jet engine, adding a new diectional control {GPS or similar}, increasing the speed and possibly the height, plus or minus, at which they may fly. Then that whole process has to be undertaken again to address a new set of parameters. The manufacturing facility in which the original defensive weapon was produced may be adapted or may be of no use for an upgraded iteration of the original concept.
Some people have questioned the use and cost of "cardboard drones". Interestingly, suitability for purpose aside, it is the drive engine, directional and stabilising functions of the drone that are the most costly. But they are all wrapped in waxed cardboard - difficult for radars and other identifying instruments to pick up and difficult to shoot down other than a chance hit on a critical internal part. If not used as a suicide drone but as a delivery drone, they can be recovered and used again. One is supposed to have made 60 return trips. I found it interesting to search information on that drone which also led me in a few other directions.
One of my own earlier suggestions was to have blimps supporting a string or rack of chains to act as protection of sensitive infrastructure, such as water and power facilities. That was offered as a suggestion, without any derision or unpleasant "put downs", in the hope that if it was considered useful, the idea may be picked up and utilised. Or possibly, the principle may be developed in other ways that would serve the purpose. The intention is to "white board" ideas and distill from the collective mass, till a logical and practical solution is developed.
However, antagonism, derision and ridicule add nothing to the conversation apart from making it unpleasant.
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Russian occupation “authorities” reportedly began leaving the city of Tokmak as the Ukrainian army approaches by Bohdan Ben 29/08/2023
"That’s according to the information of locals reported by Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Melitopol, which is the next occupied Ukrainian city in the area."
“The occupiers are being smoked out of Tokmak. Almost daily explosions and the liberation of settlements in the Melitopol direction transform Tokmak, which is still occupied, to a completely front-line city,” Fedorov said."
"While the initial distance from the Russian-occupied city of Tokmak to the frontline was about 31 km, it is now less than 20 km as the Ukrainian army advanced, taking Robotyne and areas around it. The Ukrainian army has reached the second line of Russian defense in the area."
"According to Fedorov, the local occupying authorities are being transported to another city. It is not yet known which one exactly."
================================
Ukraine closing in on Russia's southern supply lines as Putin's troops 'starting to crumble' By Europe bureau chief Steve Cannane and Riley Stuart in London
Posted Mon 4 Sep 2023 at 3:10am
"A Ukrainian soldier surveys the damage to one of the country's tanks on the road to Robotyne.(Reuters: Viacheslav Ratynskyi)
"When Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba last week told critics of his country's counteroffensive to "shut up", accusing them of "spitting in the faces" of frontline soldiers, it was obvious who his fury was directed at.
Key points:
Ukraine is closing in on Russia's supply lines in the country's south
Attacks on those lines could prove to be a turning point in the war
And experts say there's evidence Russian soldiers are "starting to crumble"
On Friday, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby was upbeat in his latest assessment.
"We have noted over the last 72 hours or so, some notable progress by Ukrainian armed forces ... in that southern line of advance coming out of the Zaporizhzhia area," he said.
"We are opening the way to Tokmak and, eventually, Melitopol and the administrative border with Crimea," he said.
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Russian Special Services Start Fleeing From Tokmak
19.09.2023, 8:17 9,212
"The town is within the range of the AFU's artillery."
"Deputy of Zaporizhzhia regional Council Askad Ashurbekov noted that Tokmak is already in the zone of reach of the AFU barrel artillery."
"Tokmak is one of the key centres for the occupants. The enemy used the town as a base to accumulate ammunition and manpower. The advance of the AFU in the south already allows to hit the logistics centres and the accumulation of the occupants. The evacuation of Russian special services and some so-called authorities has already begun from Tokmak. Despite Tokmak has not been liberated yet, our military have already solved an important strategic task," Ashurbekov emphasised."
"According to him, Tokmak is being used less and less by the occupants as a base for large numbers of military personnel and ammunition."
"Tokmak is already in the range of the AFU's barrel artillery. And this significantly reduces the enemy's defence capabilities. The Russians can no longer accumulate large quantities of ammunition close to the front line. The enemy's logistical chains are increased and the defence line is weakened. Given the military tactics, the AFU may not need to fight to liberate the town. Perhaps the Defence Forces will outflank the town and force the occupants to retreat from Tokmak," Ashurbekov said.
🇺🇦 Best Wishes to all people supporting Ukraine 🇺🇦
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RuZZia's stated reasons for aggression against Ukraine
Agreed. The RuZZians have murdered civilians with their aerial and artillery bombardments, made the survivors homeless and destitute, displaced persons in their own country and refugees in the surrounding countries supporting Ukraine.
-:- So much for protecting the poor Russian speaking population of the Donbas region.
-:- The right leaning element {RuZZia may refer to as Nazis} in Ukraine, in terms of the percentage of the population, are probably on par with other "free world" countries and lower than exist in Russia and in RuZZia's own military forces.
-:- If RuZZia thought that achieving the capitualation and subjugation of Ukraine would be a 3 day exercise, how do the RuZZians account for their intention to de-militarize Ukraine. Given the RuZZian apparent perceptions, it would have to be assumed that theRuZZian's would have considered the Ukrainian military capacity to have been negligible.
-:- NATO was the other RuZZian concern. It seems incredible, in this day and age, where inter-continental ballistic missiles can be fired to the other side of the world, that Russia and Pootin have to hide behind the petti-coats and hang on to the apron-strings of little sister, Ukraine. Another characteristic of a bully when issues and events are not going his and their way.
How absolutely preposterous, ridiculous and pathetic ?
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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You are free to watch other channels that might suit you better. Maybe videos offered by Solovyov, Skabeyeva, Mardan, Simonyan and others. Alex Jones may appeal to you, Tucker Carlson, Eva Bartlett, Scott Ritter, Patrick Lancaster, Gonzalo Lira, if he is still around, Douglas MacGregor, The Duran with Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris, The New Atlas with Brian Berletic, Redacted with Clayton and Natali Morris ........ So, there is plenty of scope for you to find information that will appeal to you. And it will save us from having to put up with a lot of whinging and whining.
Good Luck.
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Rapid End to WAR & Attrition of Military Resources.
Agreed and supported. Many people are saying, "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed". What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is that:
#** February 2022 Russia had nearly 3 times as many tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
Russia 3,400 tanks Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
Russia 990 tanks Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
Russia 2,200 Artillery/Heavy guns Ukraine 1,900 Artillery/Heavy guns {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
Russia 773 Artillery/Heavy guns Ukraine 1,100 Artillery/Heavy guns {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
Russia 1,100 MLRS Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the numbers of MLRS are:
Russia 354 MLRS Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of nearly 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware. That may well have been greater because of levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads and bridges that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
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@nivek-x8x
The so-called "Russian Black Sea Fleet" has had to sail from Crimea to the port of Novorrosysk. That was because the Russians were losing too many ships around Sevastopol, in the Western Black Sea, to the Ukrainians who do not even have a navy.
The Russians most certainly "f*cked up", as is demonstrated by being in the 637th day of their 3 to 30 day "operation".
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here.
Details from the ORYX websites.
Russia: Total Hardware and Tank Losses 24 Feb 2022 to 22 Nov 2023
Total - 13152, of which: destroyed: 9139, damaged: 576, abandoned: 534, captured: 2903
Tanks - 2472, of which destroyed: 1616, damaged: 139, abandoned: 169, captured: 548
Ukraine: Total Hardware and Tank Losses 24 Feb 2022 to 22 Nov 2023
Total - 4725, of which: destroyed: 3228, damaged: 364, abandoned: 178, captured: 954
Tanks - 688, of which destroyed: 461, damaged: 56, abandoned: 37, captured: 134
Russian Naval Ships and Submarines (19, of which destroyed: 12, damaged: 7)
1 Project 1164 Slava-class guided missile cruiser: (1, Moskva, sunk)
1 Project 22800 Karakurt-class corvette: (1, B-802 'Askold', destroyed)
1 Project 636.3 Improved Kilo-class submarine: (1, B-237 'Rostov-na-Donu', damaged beyond economical repair)
5 Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged)
1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 640 small patrol boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 1171 Tapir-class landing ship: (1, BDK-65 'Saratov', destroyed) 3 Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship: (1, 'Minsk', damaged beyond economical repair) (1, damaged) (2, 'Olenegorsky Gornyak', damaged)
2 Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft: (1, destroyed) (1, damaged)
1 Project 1176 Ondatra-class landing craft: (1, damaged)
1 Project 22870 rescue tug: (1, SB-739 V'asily Bekh', destroyed)
1 Project 266M Natya-class minesweeper: (1, damaged) Russian
Total aircraft Lost
Russia - 539, of which: destroyed: 369, damaged: 36, captured: 134
Piloted aircraftLost:
Combat Aircraft (82, of which destroyed: 78, damaged: 4)
Strategic Bombers (3, of which destroyed: 1, damaged: 2)
Command And Control Aircraft (2, of which destroyed: 1, damaged: 1)
Transport Aircraft (6, of which destroyed: 5, damaged: 1)
Helicopters (131, of which destroyed: 101, damaged: 28, captured: 2)
Ukraine Total Aircraft Lost
Ukraine- 325, of which: destroyed: 231, damaged: 4, captured: 73
Piloted aircraft lost:
Combat Aircraft (71, of which destroyed: 70, damaged: 1)
Jet Trainers (2, of which destroyed: 2)
Transport Aircraft (4, of which destroyed: 3, captured: 1)
Helicopters (37, of which destroyed: 33, damaged: 1, captured: 3)
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine, Absolute Victory 🇺🇦
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@michaeldunham3385
Absolutely agree with and have supported your comment.
Putin and the ruZZian political, military and media establishment will just continue doing this, and they won't stop at Ukraine.
Once ruZZia has Ukraine, then the smaller western Black Sea countries, Moldova (not a NATO Alliance country), Romania and Bulgaria, are at risk. Both Romania and Bulgaria are difficult to support from the West. Then, with the support of Victor Orbán in Hungary and Robert Fico in Slovakia, Poland and Czechia have ruZZia on their Eastern borders.
But, I do not believe ruZZia will move further West from Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. It is more likely, once they have created the Russian Azov and Black Seas Lake, they will then concentrate on the Suwałki Gap, between Poland and Lithuania. Capturing the Suwałki Gap would give ruZZia a clear route via Belarus to Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea. ruZZia will then have divided the Baltic and Scandinavian countries from the Southern European countries. Next Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
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I think that you need to check both your time-stamp {12:07} and the highlighted text from which Artem is reading. I think that you will find your interpretation is incorrect. Following is a transcript of Artem's presentation and the highlighted text to which he referred, between 11:50 and 13:07 . Given Shoigu's figures, most of what Shoigu said was ludicrous, no matter which figure was referred to.
11:51 Since the beginning of the month, Kiev {Kyiv} has lost over 13.7 thousand men {when the Ukrainians spoke of Just several hundred crossing} 12:10 and some 1,800 units of arms and equipment.{in just one month in one small direction} "Many Ukrainian servicemen realize the senselessness of attempts to break through our defense and surrender" 12:20
12:20 The Supplies of missile and artillery arms to the troops have increased 4.9 times since the beginning of the year, of armor - over three times, of unmanned aerial vehicles -16 times, and destructive means - 12. 12:30
Artem: "I mean he absolutely leads in a separate, completely different world from the rest of us guys. It looks like because these numbers he's getting is just absolutely from nowhere. 12:43 But the good news is that as soon as Shoigu acknowledges the total defeat of Ukrainians and absolutely victorious Russians,it actually means good news, it means that Ukrainians are winning. 12:55 And this is pretty good. Well, there you have it. Guys, if you do like this type of daily updates, can you please subscribe to my channel? It only takes one click. 13:05 thank you so much my patreons for your support and see you tomorrow. 13:07
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@davidhowse884 Thanks for your response, David.
I would not be at all surprised to hear that either or both Prigozhin and Utkin were still alive and opening up a new operation in an African or another countrry somewhere else.
While Prigozhin was the face of Wagner PMC in Ukraine, the other operations in Mali, Lybia and elsewhere still continued to function in the way that Wagner is known for. That means that there are possibly a number of command echelons operating independently, while responding to and responsible to a centralised command centre of operations. Hence, I believe, the value of Prigozhin and Utkin to the Kremlin.
Some months before Girkin/Strelkov was imprisoned, he was talking of his possible assignment and involvement in a possible insurgency in Kazakhstan. If it is believed that Prigozhin and Utkin are both dead, they cannot be charged with crimes by the ICC. This means that they are still free to travel under alias's without fear of being arrested on charges initiated by the ICC, in the way that Putin and Lvova-Belova now are confined to only a few countries.
Consequently, I think it unlikely that there will be any change in the Mali, Libyan, the Central African Republic and any other operations.
Best Wishes PNH Peregrine
==================================
The following extracts are offered in date order, from oldest to most recent. They give some indication of the Extent and type of Wagner PMC activities and operations.
"Wagner was rewarded by its allies with access to natural resources. In 2020, a Wagner-linked company, Midas Resources, gained control of the Ndassima mine in the Central African Republic, whose previous owner estimated that it might contain as much as $2.7 billion in gold. {4 days ago}"
"Colonel Sadio Camara (Camara), a Malian national, is Mali’s Minister of Defense. Colonel Camara planned and organized the deployment of the Wagner Group in Mali. In 2021, Camara made several trips to Russia to solidify the agreement between the Wagner Group and the Malian transition government to deploy the Wagner Group to Mali."
In late December 2021, Wagner PMCs took part in a large-scale military operation against ISIL cells in the Syrian desert.
"Written Submission {PDF format} on Wagner’s Activities in Libya Submitted by
[Organisation name redacted] (WGN0014)
Note from the Foreign Affairs Committee: The details of the organisation that provided this evidence have been redacted on request, prior to publication. May 2022
"On 31 May 2022, Human Rights Watch stated that information from Libyan agencies and demining groups linked the Wagner Group to the use of banned landmines and booby traps in Libya. These mines killed at least three Libyan deminers before the mines' locations were identified."
How many soldiers does the Wagner Group have? White House officials estimate the private mercenary group employs around 50,000 soldiers - most of them believed to be assigned to Ukraine. Of those, 40,000 are thought to be convicts who have been employed from prisons in Russia.
24 June 2023
Mali: "Since then, Wagner — a paramilitary group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former hot dog vender turned warlord — has been implicated in hundreds of human rights abuses alongside the country's military, including a 2022 massacre that killed 500 civilians. Human Rights Watch's new findings add to the grim toll. 24 July 2023"
"Wagner Group personnel have engaged in an ongoing pattern of serious criminal activity, including mass executions, rape, child abductions, and other brutalities in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali.
26 July 2023"
"In early 2023, the Biden Administration designated Wagner a Transnational Criminal Organization (TCO), citing, in part, abuses in Africa. U.S. officials have accused Wagner of using gold from Africa to finance operations in Ukraine, and of seeking to move weapons via Mali for use in Ukraine. 3 Aug 2023"
"The United Nations reported that Malian troops and their foreign security partners, believed to be part of the Russian Wagner mercenary group, are using violence against women and other human rights abuses to spread terror as part of the decade-long conflict between the government and insurgency groups. 11 Aug 2023"
"The Polish government is reported to have said there are between 3,500 and 5,000 Wagner mercenaries in Belarus. They are thought to be based at military camps in the south of the country, at Tsel and Brestsky. The Belarusian defence ministry says they are training the country's territorial forces.
6 Sept 2023"
"Wagner was rewarded by its allies with access to natural resources. In 2020, a Wagner-linked company, Midas Resources, gained control of the Ndassima mine in the Central African Republic, whose previous owner estimated that it might contain as much as $2.7 billion in gold. 4 days ago"
The Elusive Figure Running Wagner’s Embattled Empire of Gold and Diamonds.
Following Prigozhin’s death, business school grad Dmitry Sytii is working to preserve the group’s multibillion-dollar African operations.
By Benoit Faucon and Gabriele Steinhauser
Updated Sept. 21, 2023 10:58 pm ET
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Ukraine has sunk more than a fifth (20%) of Russia's reinforced and supposedly "invincible" Black Sea Fleet. Before the large-scale invasion, it contained 70 ships.
In the spring of 2022, the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation consisted of 70 ships; since then, Ukraine has destroyed 15 ships and a submarine, plus other smaller ships and boats, and the Black Sea fleet headquarters building. Russian propaganda, with the usual expansiveness and propensity for using superlatives, called the Black Sea fleet "invincible," but after the destruction of the cruiser Moskva, it "forever departed from the shores of Ukraine." and has since retreated from Sevastopol to the Russian port of Novorossiysk, 400 km East of Sevastopol.
Russian Naval Ships and Submarines (29, of which: destroyed: 15, // damaged: 7, // to be identified: 7)
-- 1 Project 1164 Slava-class guided missile cruiser: (1, Moskva, sunk)
✅>> "Moskva"
-- 1 Project 22800 Karakurt-class corvette: (1, B-802 'Askold', destroyed)
✅>> "Askold"
-- 1 Project 21631 The Buyan-M-class corvette (1, 'Velikiy Ustyug', “significant” damage)
✅>> "Velikiy Ustyug"
-- 1 Project 636.3 Improved Kilo-class submarine: (1, B-237 'Rostov-na-Donu', damaged beyond economical repair)
✅>> "Rostov-na-Donu"
-- 1 Project 1171 Tapir-class landing ship: (1, BDK-65 'Saratov', destroyed)
✅>> "Saratov"
-- 5 Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship: (1, 'Minsk', damaged beyond economical repair) (2, 'Novocherkassk', destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, 'Olenegorsky Gornyak', damaged) {'Caesar Kunikov', sunk}
✅>> "Minsk"
✅>> "Novocherkassk"
✅>> "Olenegorsky Gornyak"
✅>> "Caesar Kunikov"
-- 1 Project 22870 rescue tug: (1, SB-739 V'asily Bekh', destroyed)
✅>> "V'asily Bekh'"
-- 1 Project 12411 Tarantul-III-class corvette: (1, R334 'Ivanovets', destroyed)
✅>> "Ivanovets"
-- 1 Project Natya-class minesweeper: (1, 'Ivan Golubets', "slightly damaged
✅>> "Ivan Golubets"
-- 1 Project Yury Ivanov-class intelligence ship (1, 'Ivan Khurs', "slightly" damaged)
✅>> "Ivan Khurs"
-- 1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat: (1, destroyed)
-- 2 Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft: (1, destroyed) (1, damaged)
-- 1 Project 1176 Ondatra-class landing craft: (1, damaged)
-- 5 Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged)
-- 1 Stenka-class patrol boat
-- 1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat: (1, destroyed)
-- 1 Project 640 small patrol boat: (1, destroyed)
https://www.youtube.com/s/gaming/emoji/7ff574f2/emoji_u1f499.pnghttps://www.youtube.com/s/gaming/emoji/7ff574f2/emoji_u1f499.pnghttps://www.youtube.com/s/gaming/emoji/7ff574f2/emoji_u1f499.png
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Russian Initiated Wars or Those in Which They Participated
Afghanastan
Afghan_War 1979 to 1989. Afghanastan
Between 562,000[49] and 2,000,000 Afghans died in the war, while millions more fled from the country as refugees
The war contributed to the fall {and dissolution} of the Soviet Union:
-- undermining the image of the Red Army as invincible,
-- undermining Soviet legitimacy, and by
-- creating new forms of political participation in Russia
Battle_of_Grozny
The 1999–2000 battle of Grozny was the siege and assault of the Chechen capital Grozny by Russian forces, lasting from late 1999 to early 2000. The siege and fighting left the capital devastated. In 2003, the United Nations called Grozny the most destroyed city on Earth. Between 5,000 and 8,000 civilians were killed during the siege, making it the bloodiest episode of the Second Chechen War.
It is really amazing that we see the same types of events, statements and aggressive military action, time and time again.
List of wars involving Russia since dissolution of USSR in 1991
1991–1993 Georgian Civil War
1992 Transnistria War
1992 East Prigorodny Conflict North Ossetia-Alania
1992–1997 Tajikistani Civil War
1993 Russian spillover into Azerbaijan
1994–1996 First Chechen War 1999 War of Dagestan
1999–2009 Second Chechen War
2008 Russo-Georgian War
2009–2017 Insurgency in the North Caucasus
2014–present Russo-Ukrainian War
2015–present Russian military intervention in the Syrian Civil War
2018–present Central African Republic Civil War
Other sites that I check, that may also be of interest are:
History of Ukraine
Transfer of Crimea in the Soviet Union
Transfer of Crimea from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSRU 1954
Ukrainian sovereignty referendum 17 March 1991
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Another typical example of Russian reflection, as if they were looking in the mirror.
It is interesting when I look up a story from memory as an alegorical example comparing stories to real life, in this case, Russian actions and performance, I often find that the story is a Russian folk-tale.
In this case, it was the story of the queen and the mirror, with the mirror only daring to tell the queen what she wanted to hear, that she was "The Most Beautiful Woman in the World: A Russian Folk Tale"
The story immediately came to mind when I read the comment by #bobbybawbager stating that "the West which has been bullying and stealing from Africa for 100s of year's.", which most in the Free World would consider to be a reflection of Russia's own behaviour toward other countries.
Another appropriate Russian folk-tale is the story, reflecting Russia's actions, of the frog and the scorpion crossing the river.
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Anyone using the word "facts" or, even more so the word "FACTS" at the end of their statement is usually a Russian/pro-Russian shill, troll, sympathiser and supporter, speking the russian language of "Vranyo" or even "lozh".
Australian Institute of International Affairs
"Do the Russian people, restricted from the global internet, really trust state media? This is a question we may be able to answer with a proper understanding of the Russian concept of vranyo."
"The Russian Federation initiated its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. By early March, the Russian people had become cut off from the global internet. This was just one part of Vladimir Putin’s effort to return Russia to the days of the USSR, when the only news outlets available were The Truth (Pravda) and The News (Izvestia). Russians over 50 will recall the joke that of these two choices there was no news in The Truth and no truth in The News. Even at the height of Soviet power, the people could still think for themselves. So, what do Russians believe today?"
What is Vranyo?
"Vranyo plays an important role in defining the relationship between the Russian people and their state. The best way to understand vranyo is to contrast it with another Russian term, lozh. Both lozh and vranyo translate as “falsehood,” but there is a meaningful distinction. Lozh is a genuine lie: one party says something recognisably false while expecting to be believed. Vranyo, by contrast, describes a story told that both sides know is untrue but nonetheless is responded to as if it were the truth. In Part Four of Dostoyevsky’s The Idiot, General Ardalyon Ivolgin spins Prince Lev Nikolayevich Myshkin a tale claiming to have convinced Napoleon to retreat from Moscow. Myshkin knows the story is false and Ivolgin is likely aware of this fact, yet Ivolgin tells it with a straight face and Mishkin smiles and plays along."
"Unlike lozh, vranyo is a two-way street. The vrun (liar) does not expect to be believed, just listened to respectfully. Does Ivolgin himself believe what he’s saying? Yes and no. Though the vrun may initially be aware that their vranyo is a falsehood, they can become convinced by their own lie mid-tirade, a phenomenon Russian scholar Ronald Hingley labels as the “take off.”
"Perplexed by the universality of vranyo in Russian society, Dostoyevsky suggests in his 1873 essay Something about Lying that Russians are “afraid of the truth.” Truth can be “insufficiently poetic,” or “too banal,” while fiction is “fantastic and utopian.” Through vranyo, both the vrun and the victim replace truth with fiction. Dostoyevsky also lamented that “wholesale Russian lying suggests that we are all ashamed of ourselves.” The vranyo game can allow the players to throw off this sense of shame. Life becomes better when everybody agrees to replace an unhappy reality with a more agreeable one."
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@glitteringsunshine4306 Unfortunately, I tend to agree with you. I conduct three commemoration services, during the year, for military personnel who have fallen in battle during armed conflicts. One of the expressions I use in the address is "The price of freedom is eternal vigilance" {to whomever it may be attributed}.
The current WAR, being waged by Russia against Ukraine, clearly demonstrates the need for that continuing vigilance. The NATO Defensive Alliance was in virtual hibernation. Many European countries had not maintained their military preparedness. And Russia had successfully lulled most countries into a state of military stupor. It was really only the continuing sabre rattling done by China, partly in the South China Sea and with regard to Taiwan, that seemed to have kept some active alertness and preparedness.
Even though Russia had conducted its insurgency, incitement to insurrection and occupation of Crimea and parts of the Donbas in 2014, they were still able to sail two heavy landing ships, a submarine and other ships from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea prior to their anticipated, second and full-scale invasion of ukraine on the 24 February 2022
Naval News
"6 Russian Warships And Submarine Now Entering Black Sea Towards Ukraine
Montreux Convention
Photograh: Russian Navy landing ship RFS Kaliningrad (102) seen passing through the Dardanelles on February 8th. Photograph copyright Yörük Işık, with permission.
"Russia's military build-up around Ukraine is moving into a new phase. Emerging from under a veil of 'drills', 6 landing ships and a submarine are now sailing into the Black Sea. This brings them ever closer to potential operations in Ukraine.
H I Sutton 08 Feb 2022
"The first part of a Russian Navy amphibious landing ship force, which can carry troops, tanks and supplies, has entered the Dardanelles, connecting the Mediterranean to the Black Sea. This is significant, representing a point of no return in their controversial voyage towards the Black Sea and Ukraine."
"The narrow waterways running through Istanbul connects the Black Sea and Mediterranean. The first is the Dardanelles, followed by the famous Bosporus. Due to traffic regulation ships do not turn around. 6 amphibious warfare ships and a submarine are expected to pass north into the Black Sea over the next few days."
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine, Absolute Victory 🇺🇦
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I agree with your observation, #inaniehaus1598. While not discounting Russia's capacity to produce missiles and to acquire them from Iran and Nth Korea, even those resources are limited and and finite, and may be supplied on the basis of "here, use these while you can for effect, but we can't keep supplying them forever".
The Russians are very likely endeavouring to make the most of what they have and can get, in terms of territory, while they can. I believe that the Russians would wish to culminate the WAR, waged against Ukraine, with as much ground as they already have as soon as possible.
However, I do not believe that it would be wise for Ukraine to accede to any territorial concessions. Russia's complete defeat and removal of all military and administrative personnel from Ukraine's internationally recognised territory is imperative in order to fully recover Ukraine's sovereignty and freedom.
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Yes, and that is what caused the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Despite the costs for the Soviet Union not being overwhelmingly large compared to other commitments, the war left a long legacy in the former Soviet Union and, following its collapse, for the Russian Federation. Along with financial, economic and personnel losses, it brought physical disabilities and widespread drug addiction throughout the USSR and subsequently, to the Russian Federation.
According to scholars Rafael Reuveny and Aseem Prakash, the war contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union by:
---- undermining the image of the Red Army as invincible,
---- undermining Soviet legitimacy, and by
---- creating new forms of political participation.
I can see the same patterns emerging in the Russian WAR against Ukraine.
The WAR that Russia is waging on Ukraine is going to have a far greater impact on the Russian Federation than the Afghanistan WAR had on its predecessor, the Soviet Union.
It may be possible, because of pride, arrogance, hubris and even jealousy, that the Russian Federation believe they have nothing more to lose and will keep fighting till they are beaten to a stand still - Total Defeat.
Afghanistan - Soviet Casualties and losses {in 10 years 1979-98}
Soviet Union:
14,453–26,000
9,500 KIA in combat
4,000 died from wounds
1,000 died from disease and accidents
Ukraine - Russian Casualties and losses {in 18 months, 2022-23}
275,000 KIA
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This is from October last year. However, considering the number of relatively senior people making similar comments, it may still be relevant to recent events.
An article in The Moscow Times states:
‘We Cannot Win’: Russia’s Military Veterans Opposing The Ukraine War
By Leyla Latypova
Oct. 3, 2022
"A Russian Air Force Lt Col, Vitaly Votanovsky expresses his concern saying "... we cannot win"
"After retiring from the Russian Air Force at the rank of lieutenant-colonel, Vitaly Votanovsky got involved in political activism in the southern Russian city of Krasnodar.
"Now, he is a vociferous opponent of the invasion of Ukraine and has been repeatedly detained for photographing the graves of dead soldiers.
“Putin destroyed the country’s military mobilization resources with his own hands and now this idiot has gotten himself into the war with the entire world,” Votanovsky told The Moscow Times.
"He created circumstances in which we cannot win.”
That reality has not changed between now and October last year. We also know, although many have been silenced, that there have been many others who have made the same or similar observations as Russian Air Force Lt Col, Vitaly Votanovsky.
Is "the writing on the wall"?
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It is also interesting that Russia has nuclear weapons installed in the middle of Europe at Kaliningrad. So much for their rants about how the US would feel about nuclear weapons installed in Cuba or Mexico. These days such weapons do not need to be placed within a few hundred kilometres of their target. Russia is just over the Arctic Circle from Alaska, Canada, and the rest of North America. The narrowest distance between Alaska and Russia is only 55 miles, separated only by the Bering Strait. Thus Alaska is closer to Russia than the United States.
"Even if every single US intercontinental ballistic missile silo, stockpiled nuclear weapon, and nuclear-capable bomber were flattened, US nuclear submarines could — and would — retaliate.
According to Schwartz, at any given time, the US has four to five nuclear-armed submarines "on hard alert, in their patrol areas, awaiting orders for launch."
Even high-ranking officials in the US military don't know where the silent submarines are, and there's no way Russia could chase them all down before they fired back, which Schwartz said could be done in as little as 5 to 15 minutes.
The US has strategically positioned the bulk of its nuclear forces, which double as nuclear targets, far from population centers. But if you happen to live next to an ICBM silo, fear not.
There's a "0.0% chance" that Russia could hope to survive an act of nuclear aggression against the US, according to Schwartz. So while we all live under a nuclear "sword of Damocles," Schwartz added, people in big cities like New York and Los Angeles most likely shouldn't worry about being struck by a nuclear weapon."
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Absolutely agreed and supported. So pleased to see that you, #geofwassell and a few other people understand what has been accomplished by the Ukrainians since February 2022.
A few details about how the Ukrainians started out in February 2022 and how they have progressed to date.
The Ukrainians started out with some older soviet style tanks, a few planes and helicopters, shoulder mounted anti-tank weapons and the civilians were fighting with Molotov-cocktails hurled into the air-intakes and turrets of the tanks, APCs and IFVs. This was after Russia had demilitarised Ukraine by Agreements, Memoranda and Treaties between 1991 and 1997. However, it is interesting to see how things have changed.
Apparently, Russia and Ukraine are presently at about parity with their land-based hardware and weapons. Hence the reason that Russia is scavenging whatever it can get from coutries to which it has previously sold weapons. Russia still has large numbers of aircraft, though we know that their Black Sea fleet has had to sail from Sevastopol, East to the Port of Novorossiysk.
The following figures provide some perspective on losses. Ukraine had less to lose at the start, but Russia has lost three times as much as Ukraine to the present. The following numbers of hardware losses of Ukraine and Russia are intersting. Note the numbers of captured hardware in each listing.
"This list only includes {confirmed} destroyed {hardware} vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
Source: ORYX website "Hardware Losses in Ukraine" {All Confirmed} ORYX ceased recording losses early in October.
** Ukraine ** Total Hardware & Tank Losses 24 Feb 2022 to 1 Oct 2023
Total - 4786, of which: destroyed: 3274, damaged: 373, abandoned: 186, captured: 953
Tanks - 695, of which destroyed: 466, damaged: 56, abandoned: 40, captured: 133
** Russia ** Total Hardware & Tank Losses 24 Feb 2022 to 1 Oct 2023
Total - 13285, of which: destroyed: 9241, damaged: 597, abandoned: 542, captured: 2905
Tanks - 2513, of which destroyed: 1649, damaged: 140, abandoned: 176, captured: 548
Russian Naval Ships and Submarines (19, of which destroyed: 12, damaged: 7) {now probably more}
1 Project 1164 Slava-class guided missile cruiser: (1, Moskva, sunk)
1 Project 22800 Karakurt-class corvette: (1, B-802 'Askold', destroyed)
1 Project 636.3 Improved Kilo-class submarine: (1, B-237 'Rostov-na-Donu', damaged beyond economical repair)
5 Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged)
1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 640 small patrol boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 1171 Tapir-class landing ship: (1, BDK-65 'Saratov', destroyed)
3 Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship: (1, 'Minsk', damaged beyond economical repair) (1, damaged) (2, 'Olenegorsky Gornyak', damaged)
2 Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft: (1, destroyed) (1, damaged)
1 Project 1176 Ondatra-class landing craft: (1, damaged)
1 Project 22870 rescue tug: (1, SB-739 V'asily Bekh', destroyed)
1 Project 266M Natya-class minesweeper: (1, damaged)
🇺🇦 👍 🇺🇦
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Putin's revanchist statements about re-establishing the USSR or the same by any other name, clearly indicate that he and the Russian political, military and media establishment would attack NATO countries. It would be necessary to do so in order to achieve the stated goals and objectives. Russia is highly unlikely to display maps of its future plans to invade any country in advance. With regard to Russia's invasion and WAR, waged against Ukraine, Russia even stated, right up to the day, that there was no reason to invade Ukraine and that Russia would not do so. Yet that is exactly what Russia did.
In the following treatise, I have referred to the google "Map Of Europe."
The countries to the East of Russia are not the only ones at imminent risk, but also the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, as well as Poland, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. Given the current political situation in Hungary and Slovakia, either or both of those countries could possibly capitulate following an attack by the Russians on Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria.
It is not a matter of what Russia is ABLE to do. It is really a question as to whether Russia, delusionally {in the strict sense of the word, to my way of thinking}, or in spite of Russia's apparent ignorance of their real and inadequate military capacity against that of the NATO Defensive Alliance and other supporting countries {about 30 at present}, believe that they can achieve their stated goals and objectives of re-instituting the former USSR by that, or any other name. And we know that the intended "revanchism" has been stated by Putin and others in Russia, directly and implicitly.
To accomplish Russia's goals and objectives, Russia would have to attack other NATO Defensive Alliance member countries. First, Moldova, {not an Alliance member country}, then connecting with Transnistria (1), on the long {aprox 200 km} North-Eastern border between Ukraine and Moldova, where ~500 {OGRF} Russian military personnel (2) are said to be stationed. Then Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO Alliance member countries, but difficult to support from the West because of the Carpathian Mountains and, if they chose to support Russia, Hungary and Slovakia to the North-West.
This portion of the {possible} Russian plan would have to be completed by surprise and with guile, subterfuge and speed, which we know to be trade-marks of the Russian style. At this stage, with the Eastern portions of Ukraine illegally occupied and controlled by the Russians; Georgia, on the Eastern side of the Black Sea, effectively hobbled; Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria secured; the only other country with a Black Sea coastline is Turkey. The question would then arise as to how much pressure Russia would have to impose to make Turkey compliant to Russia's wishes and intentions. At which time, the Azov and Black Seas become, effectively, a Russian Azov/Black Sea lake.
Article 5: NATO Defensive Alliance. The key section of the NATO Defensive Alliance treaty is Article 5. Its commitment clause defines the "casus foederis". It commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state, in the areas defined by Article 6, to be an armed attack against them all.
Having accomplished control of the Black Sea, Russia will have effectively covered the Southern flank of any possible attack against them as they proceed East via the Suwalki Gap, through Belarus. Though, by this time, the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries will have been fully mobilised, under NATO article 5, as a result of attacks on Romania and Bulgaria. Troops from NATO member countries would then be free to cross and operate within the Polish and Ukrainian borders {with the permission and approval of each country} against the Russians. No wonder Poland has strengthened their Northern and Eastern borders.
The Suwalki Gap traverses the Northern portion of the Polish border, which is also adjacent to the Lithuanian border. It may be considered and has been referred to as the "THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE ON EARTH. In a showdown between Russia and NATO, the 'Suwałki Gap' would likely be the first point of contact. By Matthew Karnitschnig in Druskininkai, Lithuania"
Next, the Russians would likely mount an assault on the 100 km {~60 mile} Suwalki Gap, between Belarus and Kaliningrad. The Russians have conventional and, it is generally believed, nuclear weapons in the Kaliningrad exclave. Russia is also understood to have moved nuclear weapons into Belarus. With the Suwalki Gap secured, Russia will have successfully divided the Southern European countries from the Northern Baltic and Scandinavian countries. Russia will also have carved a direct route from Russia to the Baltic Sea. Then the very small countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
In Russia's attempts to accomplish these goals and objectives, and irrespective of their success or failure, Russia could be the cause of hundreds of thousands {possibly millions} of deaths of civilians and military personnel and massive levels of destruction. All of which we have seen as a result of the military actions of Russia in Ukraine, Chechnya {Grozny}, Georgia, Syria and other countries. However, future outcomes of Russia's aggression could be on a very much larger scale, without any compunction or moral scruple of any sort on Russia's part. Russia's claim is, "The only rule of WAR is the outcome", which is a direct counter to, and repudiation of all the international agreements to which Russia is signatory.
The issue is not whether Russia can subjugate, subordinate and dominate other countries, but instead, the death and destruction that Russia will cause in attempting to achieve those goals and objectives. And all that death and destruction in Ukraine is intended to intimidate, not only Ukrainians, but also the populations in Western Europe. This is, presumably, in an effort to "encourage" or "persuade" Europeans to sacrifice Ukraine {and possibly other smaller countries} to save themselves from a similar fate. However, such a sacrifice will be in vain for Western Europeans, but will just postpone the inevitable future attacks by Russia.
We have also seen that Russia seems oblivious to the difference between the combined resources of the NATO Defensive Alliance and the 30 additional countries assisting and supporting Ukraine, with respect to Russia's own resources as well as any other resources available to Russia from Iran, North Korea, possibly China and any others.
==================================
Anyone not already familiar with the videos on Julia Davis' "Russian Media Monitor" YouTube website, I recommend web-searching and viewing them. They are extracts from material presented to the Russian population through Russian TV broadcasts, with very clear English language subtitles. Some of the material could variously be described as horrifying {particularly with regard to some of the suggestions made by the "hosts", "guests" and "panellists"}, unbelievable, comical in its absurdity, confronting and numerous other descriptive words. Please do check them out.
Another website, that may be of interest, consists of interviews with 'ordinary' Russians in the street about their views on a wide range of topics. Those videos can be seen on Daniil Orain's YouTube website, "1420".
With Best Wishes, PNH
References from Wikipedia:
1) "Lying between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, Transnistria is 200 kilometres in length, and in some places only two kilometres wide. This strip of land is officially called the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), and has a population of around 500,000."
2) "The Operational Group of Russian Forces {OGRF} in Transnistria is a sizable overseas military task force of the Russian Armed Forces."
"The OGRF ostensibly remains in Transnistria to guard the ammunition depot at Cobasna. It also provides additional support to the Armed Forces of Transnistria. Today, around 350–400 troops with the operational force report directly to the JCC and can be assigned to it at any given time."
3) The JCC. "Following the Transnistria War, the Joint Control Commission {JCC} was established on the initiative of Moldovan and Russian presidents Mircea Snegur and Boris Yeltsin by the signing of a cease-fire agreement on July 21, 1992. It consists of soldiers and officers from Moldovan, Transnistian and Russian military."
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Depends on how far the current US/tRumpf administration leans in the direction of ruZZia.
Once ruZZia has Ukraine, then the smaller western Black Sea countries, Moldova (not a NATO Alliance country), Romania and Bulgaria, are at risk. Both Romania and Bulgaria are difficult to support from the West. Then, with the support of Victor Orbán in Hungary and Robert Fico in Slovakia, Poland and Czechia have ruZZia on their Eastern borders.
But, I do not believe ruZZia will move further West from Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. It is more likely, once they have created the Azov & Black Seas Russian Lake, they will then concentrate on the Suwałki Gap, between Poland and Lithuania. This would give ruZZia a clear route from ruZZia, via Belarus to Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea.
ruZZia will then have divided the Baltic and Scandinavian countries from the Southern European countries. Next Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
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@Sierraone1
Progress in war is not always measured in miles or kilometres.
Rapid End to WAR & Attrition of Military Resources.
Many people are saying, "There has been too little progress" and "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed".
What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is what is demonstrated in just a few categories of hardware and equipment, more of which can be seen on the "ORYX equipment losses in Ukraine" website:
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here.
Russia 🇷🇺: Total hardware losses and Tanks lost 24 February 2022 to 17 October 2023
Total - 12573, of which: destroyed: 8687, damaged: 521, abandoned: 473, captured: 2892
Tanks - 2389, of which destroyed: 1559, damaged: 136, abandoned: 144, captured: 550
Ukraine 🇺🇦: Total hardware losses and Tanks lost 24 February 2022 to 17 October 2023
Total - 4585, of which: destroyed: 3107, damaged: 349, abandoned: 171, captured: 960
Tanks - 664, of which destroyed: 435, damaged: 54, abandoned: 33, captured: 142
Russian Naval Ships and Submarines (16, of which destroyed: 11, damaged: 5)
1 Project 1164 Slava-class guided missile cruiser: (1, Moskva, sunk)
1 Project 636.3 Improved Kilo-class submarine: (1, B-237 'Rostov-na-Donu', damaged beyond economical repair)
5 Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged)
1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 640 small patrol boat: (1)
1 Project 1171 Tapir-class landing ship: (1, BDK-65 'Saratov', destroyed)
3 Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship: (1, 'Minsk', damaged beyond economical repair) (1, damaged) (2, 'Olenegorsky Gornyak', damaged)
1 Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 22870 rescue tug: (1, SB-739 V'asily Bekh', destroyed)
1 Project 266M Natya-class minesweeper: (1, damaged)
Todays tally as a result of strikes by Ukrainian forces that say they have destroyed Russian military equipment in missile strikes against military airfields in the occupied parts of two regions and reportedly launched a new drone attack on Crimea as Russia again pounded Ukraine with deadly missile and drone strikes.
Ukraine's General Staff said early on October 17 that Ukrainian forces had hit two Russian helicopters, an ammunition depot, and a piece of artillery, without giving details about where the strikes had taken place.
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@Jay.Kellett Apparently, before the GLSDB's were cleared for deployment, they are being tested with x-rays, particularly the older rocket motor sections, for serviceability. Hence the delay. This to ensure each is serviceable and suitable to be sent to Ukraine. I cannot imagine that the US would be any less certain that the ATACM's were serviceable for deployment. As said by #BastianKH {3rd comment down} "they did a pretty good job in Berdyansk and Luhansk."
"GLSDB is based on two combat proven systems; Boeing's Small Diameter Bomb and the Multiple Launch Rocket System. In cooperation with Boeing, Saab is bringing a ground-launched version of the high precision munition."
"The precision of GLSDB is so high it can hit within the radius of a car tire
Since Boeing's SDB works as a standalone airborne solution, all necessary technology lies within the missile
GLSDB is launcher independent, which means any launcher of the M270/M142 interface can be used"
"Boeing, in partnership with Saab, developed an "inter-stage adapter" to connect the SDB to an M26 rocket. Also providing expertise are two Norwegian companies, Nammo (booster rocket) and Nordic Shelter (launchers). The advantage of the M26 is that there is an abundant stockpile of these rockets. Production of these rockets ceased in 2001"
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What an incredible mash up of statistics and sources. The last paragraph of this note paints a totally different picture from that which is presented by #dennis.s.4814 , who conveniently forgot to add the second part of the paragraph referring to a reduction of the area occupied by the Russians from 161,000 km2 to 86,557 km2 and, an area that is continuing to dininish.The area liberated by Ukrainians of 74,443 km2 with the retreats, withdrawals and routs of Russian forces from Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson. 161,000 - 74,443 = 86,557 km2 , remaining to be liberated by Ukraine.
Try comparing apples with apples and oranges with oranges next time, #dennis.s.4814 . {And also "get the seasons for picking the fruit correct as well."}
A classic application of the "Fire-hose of Falsehood" as described at the following website:
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html
Lies, damned lies, and statistics - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of statistics to bolster weak arguments, "one of the best, and best-known" critiques of applied statistics. It is also sometimes colloquially used to {cast} doubt {on} statistics used to prove an opponent's point of view.
"Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on September 1 but made no confirmed advances."
To put the statistics presented by #dennis.s.4814 , into perspective, according to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine which he uses as a source.
"Before 2022, Russia occupied 42,000 km2 (16,000 sq mi) of Ukrainian territory (Crimea, and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk), and occupied an additional 119,000 km2 (46,000 sq mi) after its full-scale invasion by March 2022, a total of 161,000 km2 (62,000 sq mi) or almost 27% of Ukraine's territory.
"By 11 November 2022, the Institute for the Study of War calculated that Ukrainian forces had liberated an area of 74,443 km2 (28,743 sq mi) from Russian occupation, leaving Russia with control of about 18% of Ukraine's territory.
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@johnshite4656
🇷🇺Russia & 🇺🇦Ukraine Hardware Losses 24 February 2022 to 7 September 2023
🇷🇺Total - 12004, of which: destroyed: 8206, damaged: 479, abandoned: 446, captured: 2873
🇺🇦Total - 4375, of which: destroyed: 2946, damaged: 334, abandoned: 149, captured: 946
🇷🇺Tanks - 2290, of which destroyed: 1482, damaged: 129, abandoned: 132, captured: 549
🇺🇦Tanks - 642, of which destroyed: 415, damaged: 53, abandoned: 31, captured: 143
🇷🇺Command Posts And Communications Stations (250, of which destroyed: 163, damaged: 2, abandoned: 2, captured: 83)
🇺🇦Command Posts And Communications Stations (16, of which destroyed: 12, captured: 4)
🇷🇺Engineering Vehicles And Equipment (340, of which destroyed: 168, damaged: 9, abandoned: 38, captured: 125)
🇺🇦Engineering Vehicles And Equipment (79, of which destroyed: 42, damaged: 8, abandoned: 4, captured: 25)
🇷🇺Self-Propelled Anti-Tank Missile Systems (41, of which destroyed: 17, damaged: 1, abandoned: 4, captured: 19)
🇺🇦Self-Propelled Anti-Tank Missile Systems (21, of which destroyed: 8, abandoned: 1, captured: 12)
🇷🇺Artillery Support Vehicles And Equipment (107, of which destroyed: 53, abandoned: 2, captured: 52)
🇺🇦Artillery Support Vehicles And Equipment (23, of which destroyed: 10, captured: 13)
🇷🇺Towed Artillery (296, of which destroyed: 169, damaged: 26, abandoned: 5, captured: 96)
🇺🇦Towed Artillery (157, of which destroyed: 87, damaged: 50, abandoned: 2, captured: 18)
🇷🇺Self-Propelled Artillery (512, of which destroyed: 368, damaged: 30, abandoned: 7, captured: 107)
🇺🇦Self-Propelled Artillery (213, of which destroyed: 143, damaged: 47, captured: 23)
🇷🇺Multiple Rocket Launchers (262, of which destroyed: 192, damaged: 16, abandoned: 2, captured: 52)
🇺🇦Multiple Rocket Launchers (50, of which destroyed: 32, damaged: 9, captured: 9)
🇷🇺Anti-Aircraft Guns (17, of which destroyed: 3, captured: 14)
🇺🇦Anti-Aircraft Guns (4, of which captured: 4)
🇷🇺Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns (25, of which destroyed: 14, damaged: 1, abandoned: 2, captured: 8)
🇺🇦Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns (6, of which destroyed: 2, damaged: 1, captured: 3)
🇷🇺Radars (45, of which destroyed: 29, damaged: 4, captured: 9)
🇺🇦Radars And Communications Equipment (75, of which destroyed: 57, damaged: 7, abandoned: 1 captured: 11)
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A Short Hypothetical Essay on Russia's Future
The Russians may have massive underground or 'in the side of mountain' caches, like other countries, such as Iran are said to have, of military and air-force weapons that they have accumulated over the previous recent years. It may be intended to bring this military hardware out at the "last minute" and spring a very unpleasant surprise. While I do not believe this is necessarily so, I believe that at least some attention must be given to the possibility, so that if the trap is sprung by the Russians, the Ukrainian military and their supporters will be adequately prepared.
I most certainly hope that the Russians are reduced now, to using older, almost antiquated weapons and transport, such as T55 and T54 tanks. However, I find it difficult to believe that Russia would have allowed their weapon stocks to be reduced to that level. That is particularly so, when the one area about which the Russians should be least concerned, in reality {not their imaginations}, is the defensive alliance of countries in NATO. Surely, simple logic would not have allowed them to rely, as a last resort, on their nuclear weapons. That should be especially so, given that if any of the Russian nuclear weapons were to be fired, Russian targets will receive a barrage by conventional weapons, that will annihilate the military targets at which they would be fired {as distinct from the civilian areas that the Russians attack with air and ground launched missiles and artillery rounds}. That conventional weapons barrage would occur before the US, the UK, France, Germany or any other country, apart from Russia, ever fired any nuclear weapons.
As I was thinking about the possibility of Russia ending up requesting NATO for assistance in their defence, another possibility occurred to me. Such a situation could occur if, about ten years ago, Russia decided that taking Ukraine was an all or nothing gambit. They realised that their oil and gas was only going to be a profitable market commodity for a limited number of years, given the push to "go green". So with an ever decreasing income, ageing manufacturing capacity and limited sea ports for distribution of their products, the acquisition of Ukraine, with its resources and the means of distributing products by sea, might have seemed to be a way of solving their dilemma. This situation would mean that they could attempt to take Ukraine and, if unsuccessful, could throw themselves on the mercy of what they refer to as the "west" which I prefer to call the "free world" {More inclusive}.
In the situation that I have outlined, the Russians could step, militarily, right up to the point of using nuclear weapons. They would know that there would be extremely limited chances of other countries striking their territory. They would also feel safe and assured that no nuclear weapons would be fired unless the Russians did so pre-emptively. At the point where they saw that their conventional weapons had been exhausted and their bluff, in terms of a nuclear weapons attack, had been "called", they would then have to concede defeat and rely on the "free world" for their protection {possibly from the Chinese}. The Russians would also know that the "free world" would not want to see the uncontrolled collapse of the Russian Federation. Those “free world” countries would then, in some ways, feel bound by their own concerns to support Russia. This could be accomplished by something akin to the "Marshall Plan" that was instituted, in Europe, following the second world war. In this way, the "free world" also has a positive outcome. However, during that time, Ukraine will have had to endure the agonies of war.
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Je n'aime pas non plus les armes offensives. Cependant, tout différend sur les types d'armes est théorique lors de la défense de votre pays contre un ennemi, qui est prêt à se pencher au niveau le plus bas, dans ses tentatives pour faire capituler le défenseur. Au moins, sur la base de la performance à ce jour, nous pensons que l'Ukraine et les Ukrainiens auront le désir, la capacité et la détermination d'assurer la recherche et la récupération rigoureuses des munitions, de leur territoire après la fin de la guerre. L'intention sera de supprimer toutes les munitions inexplorées, y compris les mines, les bombes et les grenades.
L'Ukraine a progressivement et délibérément diminué la capacité de la Russie à faire la guerre, contre l'Ukraine et contre d'autres pays également. Pour cela, nous, en particulier ceux les plus proches de la Russie, nous serons sans aucun doute reconnaissants.
I don't like any offensive weapons either. However, any dispute over the types of weapons is moot when defending your country against an enemy, that is prepared to stoop to the lowest level, in their attempts to make the defender capitulate. At least, on the basis of performance to date, we believe that Ukraine and Ukrainians will have the desire, capacity and determination to ensure rigourous searching and recovery of munitions, from their territory after the war is ended. The intention will be to remove all unexplode ordnance, including mines, bombs and grenades.
Ukraine has gradually and purposefully diminished Russia's capacity to wage WAR, against Ukraine and against other countries also. For that we all, particularly those closest to Russia, will no doubt, be thankful.
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@avanar5449
Yes, as demonstrated by the Russians in their retreats, withdrawals and routs from Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson.
Kherson, claimed by the Russians where they "were to be forever", with much fanfare and a party given by the Russian mafia style boss, head of the political and military establishment of the Russian Federation.
A few weeks later the invaders, said to be the "2nd strongest military in the world" were retreating to the left bank of the Dnipro River, with tail between their legs. The Russians have since been pushed even further back towards their own internationally recognised borders, where they actually do belong.
Yes it is easy to make a statement that "a few steps" does not constitute a breakthrough so, presumably, you have a specific number of steps that actually qualifies as a breakthrough.
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@geckotimes4598 ("wins every time chechnya, Georgia" & Ukraine ???}
🇺🇦
If you call a continuing pattern of genocide "winning". I don't !!!
"The 1999–2000 battle of Grozny, Chechnya, was the siege and assault of the Chechen capital Grozny by Russian forces, lasting from late 1999 to early 2000. The siege and fighting left the capital devastated. In 2003, the United Nations called Grozny the most destroyed city on Earth.[7] Between 5,000[5] and 8,000 civilians[6] were killed during the siege, making it the bloodiest episode of the Second Chechen War."
🇺🇦
And Ukraine will be Terror-Russia's next "Afghanistan"
🇺🇦
Soviet–Afghan_War
🇺🇦
The Soviet–Afghan War was a protracted armed conflict fought in the Soviet-controlled Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (DRA) from 1979 to 1989.
🇺🇦
The war left a long legacy in the former Soviet Union and following its collapse. Along with losses, it brought physical disabilities and widespread drug addiction throughout the USSR.[427]
🇺🇦
According to scholars Rafael Reuveny and Aseem Prakash, the war contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union by:
-- undermining the image of the Red Army as invincible, {read: Military of the Russian Federation}
-- undermining Soviet legitimacy, and by
-- creating new forms of political participation.
🇺🇦
The Russian Federation has lost more personnel; army, navy and air-force pilots, in 18 months than they lost in 10 years in afghanistan:
Total: 86,470–98,017 Soviet Union:
14,453[13]–26,000[14] killed
9,500 killed in combat[13]
4,000 died from wounds[13]
1,000 died from disease and accidents[13]
53,753 wounded[13]
264 missing
451 aircraft lost (including 333 helicopters)
147 tanks lost
1,314 IFVs/APCs lost
433 artillery guns and mortars lost
11,369 cargo and fuel tanker trucks lost
Afghanistan:
18,000 killed[15]
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@yellowtunes2756
August 04, 2023
By RFE/RL's Russian Service
The figures presented by Mediazona are confirmed by death notices and other documtns available to the public. Hence their figures are confimed independently and, because of the strict parameters used to confirm the names of dead service personnel, will seriously and significantly understate the losses.
"Journalists Identify Almost 30,000 Russian Military Members Killed In Ukraine
The researchers said that the real number of dead could be at least twice as high.
"Journalists from the BBC and Mediazona have identified the names of 29,217 Russian military members killed in Ukraine since February 2022. At least 870 of them died after the Ukrainian counteroffensive began in the spring of 2023. The researchers said that the real number of dead could be at least twice as high. The journalists used open sources, messages, and statements from officials, media, and notifications published by close relatives in their research. The names include several senior Russian Army officials, including two generals, 10 colonels, eight lieutenant colonels, 14 majors, and a lieutenant general, one of the highest ranks in the Russian Army. To read the original story by RFE/RL's Russian Service, click "https://www.ozodi.org/a/32821930.html"
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Now that you mention it, it took Russia's best {at the time}, the Wagner PMC, more than seven months to take control of the single city of Bakhmut.
Russian forces withdrew, retreated or routed from Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson last year. Kherson about which the Kremlin-gremlin had a big party and claimed that "Russia was in Kherson forever". A few weeks later the Russian forces had vacated Kherson and retreated to the left bank of the Dnipro River.
During the past twelve months the "2nd strongest military in the world" has made no significant advances or gains whatsoever against the Ukrainian forces. In fact the Russian forces have taken up defensive positions and are now gradually being squeezed out of their trenches and lines.
In that time, Putin's elite paratrooper squad, known as the VDV, had already been decimated before his mobilisation of 2,000,000 troops in September 2022. {see below} The revelation comes from Mikhail Zvinchuk, a former military press official and creator of the Rybar channel on Telegram, who revealed the news on Russian state TV. 1 Feb 2023
According to BBC News Russian and the Mediazona news website, 1,937 VDV deaths had been documented by the end of August 2023, accounting for 6% of the 31,665 Russian fatalities who had been identified by name (the true total was believed to be several times higher than that), and 8% of those who could identified by both name and service branch.
"A large number of victims among those mobilised, according to the president, will only rally Russian society and strengthen the current regime, and regardless of whether the result will be victory or defeat.’
"Valery Solovey, former professor at Moscow’s prestigious Institute of International Relations, said: ‘The intention [is] to mobilise not 300,000, 400,000, or 500,000 but, with luck, up to two million people, including 300,000 women after the New Year celebrations" {possibly after the "election" 2024}. author Brooke Davies Friday 25 Nov 2022
The situation for the Russian forces does not look good at all 🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine, Absolute Victory 🇺🇦
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It is really easy to be cynical about one event or location, but let's look at a few. It took Eight months for Wagner PMC to take Bakhmut, a city of 70,000 population. That was after the withdrawal, retreats and routs of Russian military forces from Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson. Kherson, where, during a big celebration, it was said "the Russians would be in kherson forever". And those are the accomplishments of the "2nd stronget military in the world". Wow and Yippee.
"Seldom in the history of warfare has so much been said, amid so much death, about a place that mattered so little – but that’s the Battle for Bakhmut for you. For now." "The leader of the Russian mercenary company Wagner claimed Saturday that his men had captured the town from Ukraine after “224 days of fighting.”
"The fall of Bakhmut, where both Russia and Ukraine are believed to have suffered huge losses, would represent Moscow’s first big victory in the conflict in more than 10 months."
"Russia-Ukraine War. Wagner’s Withdrawal From Bakhmut Would Present Test to Russian Army Published May 25, 2023 Updated May 30, 2023
"The mercenary group’s leader said his fighters would hand the ruined city to regular Russian forces, who are already stretched and will have to fill the gap left by the mercenaries. Here’s what we’re covering:
Stretched Russian forces would have to fill the gap if Wagner fighters pull out of Bakhmut.
Prigozhin says his forces have begun withdrawing from Bakhmut.
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The insults were directed toward President Zelenskyy by vance, trump, the jumped up little twerp, brian glenn, latest paramour of mtg (R - Georgia), and others. President Zelenskyy, for the most part, endured insufferable comments by trump and his long rambling, ill-informed, but self-congratulatory and self-aggrandizing monologues. It was trump, vance , glenn and others -who- that deliberately attempted to embarrass President Zelenskyy to satisfy a failing Putin, his and the ruZZian political and military establishment and regime.
President Zelenskyy remained relatively calm during the whole 50 minutes of the comments imposed on him. If you can show any differently, I would be pleased to read your comments. Not just rambling opinions and generalized accusations, but clear quotes.
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@yuribezmenov7608
Thanks for your comment that improves the YouTube status, according to the algorithm for the "The Russian Dude" channel.
However, you are entirely wrong with your assumptions and suppositions about your most enamoured, "Tsar Bomba". Only a fool would ignore the opposing realities. A fool, or someone so inured in the rhetoric of the political and military establishment of the Russian Federation, that they cannot see what is obvious to the people in other countries.
The greater the threat of the firing of any weapons with nuclear warheads, the greater the need for resistance and opposition to that threat, no matter what the possibilities. That is because the possibilities are always going to be greater in the future, when the stakes will be raised even further and the confidence and belligerence of the Russian Federation will have been increased by any capitulation by another country or countries. The world CAN NOT allow Russia to have such an opportunity.
Any response, by other countries, to the use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation, will very likely be with conventional weapons. This will be to reduce the chances of a continued or escalated nuclear WAR. However, Russia has to be assured, as I am certain are Putin, the rest of the Russian political and military establishment and their media hangers-on, that an attack with conventioanl weapons will be more devastating than they might care to believe.
Russia is definitely not doing themselves any favours by their threats. Nuclear threats are also a double edged sword, they cut both ways. Russia is definitely not well enough protected to even defend themselves against a conventional weapons WAR against the Free World countries, let alone a nuclear weapons WAR.
It should be apparent to Russia and their shills, trolls, sympathisers and supporters, that if Western or Free World countries are prepared to support Ukraine in the massive way that they have so far, how much greater will be the response to Russian aggression toward any other country or countries, particularly member countries of the NATO Defensive Alliance, as well as other allied countries.
Russia has itself to blame for waking the NATO Defensive Alliance from its slumber and now the Alliance, as a result of Russia's actions and rhetoric, is going into an ever increasing state of preparedness.
Good luck with any furture threats. They are all but meaningless. The rest of the world does not have to shout about their nuclear weapons, they have more than enough to match those of Russia, and they are all in excellent working order, should they be needed. It may also be wise to consider the implications of Mutually Assured Destruction {MAD}. We all die sometime, it is only those who are afraid of death, who fear dying. Consequently, it is my belief that Putin would be among the people most afraid of dying.
Please write back and let us know your thoughts.
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine 🇺🇦
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Russian Propaganda and the pro-Russian operatives who disseminate disinformation
Russian shills, trolls, sympathisers and supporters often use the expressions, "I do not support any party.", "I've got no skin in the game" or "I am just telling it how I see it". In this way, they are claiming to be neutral parties to the discussion.
These statements are often combined with directives like, "So in my opinion you should shut ur mouth" (sic) or something as simple as the word "stop !!".
The script is often combined with an aggressive tone, "Why keep talking nonsense .... " and potential outcomes stated as though they were already proven fact, "In fact they are going to loose." (sic).
These are all techniques in which members of such "cyber front Z" style "farms" and "factories", from Russian cities like St. Petersburg, are coached and schooled. People employed in these operations are paid and are required to meet quotas of a certain number of comments and responses during their shift.
The contemporary Russian model for propaganda is categorised as “the fire-hose of falsehood” because of two of its distinctive features:
a) high numbers of channels and messages and
b) a shameless willingness to disseminate partial truths or outright fictions {lies}. In the words of one observer, “New Russian propaganda entertains, confuses and overwhelms the audience.”
Contemporary Russian propaganda has other distinctive features. It is also rapid, continuous, and repetitive, and it lacks commitment to consistency. Inconsistency in the messages may be seen as favourable to the Russian narrative by creating a sense of confusion and the "burning off" of readers of these messages. In other words, such messages are not generally designed to inform but, instead, to dissemble, obfuscate and "muddy the waters", with the intention of creating confusion and distraction among readers and commenters in the comments list following videos.
Additional characteristics are the use of personal abuse or insults, slander and recrimination towards the presenters of the video, the writer of a comment, or the content of the comment to which the operator is responding.
Specific directives are also used. Often the idea is that no return response may be assumed to have indicated acceptance or compliance by the original writer of the comment to which the response, favouring the Russian position, is written.
The directive may even be designed to discourage any further response. Such discouragement may be elicited because of disgust or simply withdrawal {with a figurative shrug of the shoulders} of the speaker opposing the Russian narrative, thereby seeming to confirm acceptance or compliance with the directive, by default. This implied confirmation or acceptance is designed to negatively affect uncertainty among other readers of the message and induce them to question their own established views on the subject, or the views of others.
Russian Propaganda and the pro-Russian operatives who disseminate disinformation
Russian shills, trolls, sympathisers and supporters often use the expressions, "I do not support any party.", "I've got no skin in the game" or "I am just telling it how I see it". In this way, they are claiming to be neutral parties to the discussion.
These statements are often combined with directives like, "So in my opinion you should shut ur mouth" (sic) or something as simple as the word "stop !!".
The script is often combined with an aggressive tone, "Why keep talking nonsense .... " and potential outcomes stated as though they were already proven fact, "In fact they are going to loose." (sic).
These are all techniques in which members of such "cyber front Z" style "farms" and "factories", from Russian cities like St. Petersburg, are coached and schooled. People employed in these operations are paid and are required to meet quotas of a certain number of comments and responses during their shift.
The contemporary Russian model for propaganda is categorised as “the fire-hose of falsehood” because of two of its distinctive features:
a) high numbers of channels and messages and
b) a shameless willingness to disseminate partial truths or outright fictions {lies}. In the words of one observer, “New Russian propaganda entertains, confuses and overwhelms the audience.”
Contemporary Russian propaganda has other distinctive features. It is also rapid, continuous, and repetitive, and it lacks commitment to consistency. Inconsistency in the messages may be seen as favourable to the Russian narrative by creating a sense of confusion and the "burning off" of readers of these messages. In other words, such messages are not generally designed to inform but, instead, to dissemble, obfuscate and "muddy the waters", with the intention of creating confusion and distraction among readers and commenters in the comments list following videos.
Additional characteristics are the use of personal abuse or insults, slander and recrimination towards the presenters of the video, the writer of a comment, or the content of the comment to which the operator is responding.
Specific directives are also used. Often the idea is that no return response may be assumed to have indicated acceptance or compliance by the original writer of the comment to which the response, favouring the Russian position, is written.
The directive may even be designed to discourage any further response. Such discouragement may be elicited because of disgust or simply withdrawal {with a figurative shrug of the shoulders} of the speaker opposing the Russian narrative, thereby seeming to confirm acceptance or compliance with the directive, by default. This implied confirmation or acceptance is designed to negatively affect uncertainty among other readers of the message and induce them to question their own established views on the subject, or the views of others.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🙏🙏🙏🙏🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Absolutely agreed and supported. So long as the population in those regions legitimately show, by legal and valid elections, that they would prefer to join a country other than Russia. If the land is transferred legally to another country, the minority of people, who wish to remain with Russia, can be given incentives to move to a nearby Russian oblast. Everyone would then be free to make the choice that suited them.
These are the types of options that the Russian political establishment could have offered, between 2014 and 2022, to the minority of Russians in Ukraine who wanted to live in Russia. Instead, the Russian establishment caused many of their deaths, made the majority homeless and refugees, devastated and annihilated their homes and cities.
Was Russia really and genuinely interested in the Russian-speaking minority in Ukraine, the so-called "demilitarization and denazification" of Ukraine. Or, was all this a pretext for conquering and colonizing of an adjacent independent country. I believe in the "pretext" condition.
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@alec1984 Your references and sources are likely to be among the following:
A few other Russian and Western shills and trolls, sympathisers and supporters of Russia are the following characters and sources that are active and prolific distributors of the classic lies and deliberate dis-information that is presented by so many of these shills and trolls, sympathisers and supporters, for the Kremlin and the Russian political, military and media establishment. Many present their ideas and disinformation in slickly presented videos and in comments under videos. All this can be referred to as the "Russian fire-hose of falsehood".
People such as Solovyov, Skabeyeva, Mardan, Simonyan and other "hosts", "guests" and "panellists", on their Russian TV broadcasts.
Among these are the Western pro-Russian entities, who may refer to themselves as independent journalists and geopolitical analysts. These include the likes of Alex Jones, Richard Medhurst, Max Blumenthal, Garland Nixon, Matt Ehret, Tucker Carlson, Eva Bartlett, Scott Ritter, Patrick Lancaster, Gonzalo Lira, {if he is still around}, Douglas MacGregor, Aaron Mate, Sonja ven den Ende, Alina Lipp, and John Meersheimer, The Duran with Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris, The New Atlas with Brian Berletic, Redacted with Clayton and Natali Morris. Michael Flynn, Roger Stone, Patrick Bet-David, Jimmy Dore, Tim Pool, Adam Sosnick, Vincent Oshana, Cyrus Janssen, James Galloway, Jackson Hinkle and others.
Westerners who are used in Russia to promote the Kremlin narrative are:
Thomas Röper, the German conspiracy theorist, who is in reality, a professional journalist in Russian propaganda.
Arnaud Develay, the French lawyer defending Putin and his war.
Andre Chanclu, the far right pro-Russia activist.
Vito Grittani, real diplomat in fake countries.
Kris Roman, too far right for the far right.
Scott Bennett, fake "officer" of the US military.
Media sources may include TASS, RT {Russia Today}, the Hindustan Times, WION, the Timur Tribun ........ So, there is plenty of scope for finding the type of garbage that these people spew out and spread. Disinformation that will appeal to the Russian and pro-Russian scammers in their carefully nurtured little echo chambers.
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Thanks for your comment that improves the YouTube status, according to the algorithm for the "The Russian Dude" channel.
But you are entirely wrong. The greater the threat of the firing of any weapons with nuclear warheads, the greater the need for resistance and opposition to that threat, no matter what the possibilities. That is because the possibilities are always going to be greater in the future, when the stakes will be raised even further and the confidence and belligerence of the Russian Federation will have been increased by any capitulation by another country or countries. The world CAN NOT allow Russia to have such an opportunity.
Any response to the use of nuclear weapons, by the Russian Federation, will very likely be with conventional weapons. This will be to reduce the chances of a continued nuclear WAR. However, Russia has to be assured, as I am certain are Putin, the rest of the Russian political and military establishment and their media hangers-on, that an attack with conventioanl weapons will be more devastating than they might care to believe.
Russia is definitely not doing themselves any favours by their threats. Nuclear threats are also a double edged sword, they cut both ways. Russia is definitely not well enough protected to even defend themselves against a conventional weapons WAR against the Free World countries, let alone a nuclear weapons WAR.
It should be apparent to Russia and their shills, trolls, sympathisers and supporters, that if Western or Free World countries are prepared to support Ukraine in the massive way that they have so far, how much greater will be the response to Russian aggression toward any other country or countries, particularly member countries of the NATO Defensive Alliance as well as other allied countries.
Russia has itself to blame for waking the NATO Defensive Alliance from its slumber and now the Alliance, as a result of Russia's actions and rhetoric, is going into an ever increasing state of preparedness.
Good luck with any furture threats. They are all but meaningless. The rest of the world does not have to shout about their nuclear weapons, they have more than enough to match those of Russia, and they are all in excellent working order, should they be needed.
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine 🇺🇦
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Yes, I'm inclined to agree. the T54/T55s will be used as cover for the supported/following infantry, rather than for their firepower. However, their use will, very likely, give a false sense of security for both the tank crews and the supported/following infantry.
A T-55 is a poor substitute for a purpose-built howitzer, which might fire twice as far as the tank can do, more accurately, faster and for longer. But in a war where both sides are desperately short of artillery and artillery ammunition, an obsolete 70-year-old tank lobbing less-in-demand ammunition a modest distance might be somewhat better than nothing. {Emphasis on somewhat.}
T55 Tank has about half the range of towed Howitzers, though it has a stabilised gun barrel and the gun can be fired on the move.
The main weapon has a maximum range in the indirect fire role of
14,600 m and can fire high-explosive, armor-piercing, and shaped-charge ammunition.
The ammunition reserve of its main gun has been increased, in the T55, to 43 rounds including
22 high-explosive rounds, 15 armor-piercing rounds,, and 6 shaped-charge rounds.
The T54 carries 34 rounds
4 rounds per minute rate of fire.
Service life of gun barrel 200-400 Rounds depending on rate of fire
This table compares Ukraine’s Soviet-era medium caliber towed artillery, the 2A65 MSTA-B, with the comparable U.S. systems, M-777 and M198.
The M-777’s main advantage over the M198 is transportability. It weighs much less than the M198 and is shorter in travel configuration.
Calibre Projectile Range Fire Precision
Unassisted Assisted Projectiles
M-777 156 mm 24.7 km 30+ km Yes
M198 155 mm 22.4 km 30 km Yes
2A65MSTA-B 152 mm 24.7 km 28.9 km No
Service life of Howitzer gun barrel: Usually a barrel on a modern artillery system, like the M777, must be replaced after firing up to 2,500 rounds.
4 rounds per minute rate of fire.
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Agreed with regard to the speed of advance and the delivery of GLSDB's. My understanding was that they would not be delivered before 9 months from the announcement of supply in Feb 2023, making the expected delivery date around November 2023.
The New Voice of Ukraine June 23, 2023 In this article:
Laura Cooper
American public servant
"Ukraine will receive Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) missiles – an alternative to ATACMS missiles — no earlier than autumn, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Laura Cooper said while, giving testimony to the U.S. Congress on June 22."
Interestingly, The EurAsia times has a report, apparently sourced from RIA Novosti, according to the text,
"First Kill! US GLSDB-Guided Missile ‘Shot Down’ By Russian Military In Ukraine, RuMoD Says By EurAsian Times Desk March 28, 2023
"The Russian Ministry of Defense, for the very first time, claimed shooting down an American GLSDB-guided missile in Ukraine."
💙💛
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@hedda2022 Thank you very much for your reply and request for further information from the so-called #Mr_Funnyman273 , -who- that claims. according to a later comment that he is Russian,
about the crew and any "passengers" aboard the IL-76. I would say that it is far more likely to be a case of one oif the following styles of speech in Russia, "Vranyo" or "Lozh".
-- { #Mr_Funnyman273 37 minutes ago Как россиянину читая подобную хуйню мне очень жаль что это не правда.= As a Russian, reading such crap, I’m very sorry that it’s not true} --
-- { #Mr_Funnyman273 55 seconds ago @johnyblazer8597 Funniest part about it that russia can make rockets out of washing machines, but the ukro-cattle can't.} --
Lies, damned lies and Russian "vranyo" and "lozh".
"One of the defining features of Russian propaganda over the past few years has been the endless stream of lies it spews out. These often take the form of “doublespeak”, a term derived from George Orwell’s novel 1984, which distorts or reverses the meaning of words. Thus Russia blames Ukraine for every massacre of its own civilians and even the British for its other war crimes."
"We observe this daily on social media in tweets from official Russian channels, whether from its local embassies, UN representatives or government officials. A simple example is the use of the following phrase in a recent tweet dated 18 April: “West shows total intolerance towards alternative views”. A breathtaking twisting of reality, when as we know Russia has closed down all independent thought. Indeed, one reads it and wonders for which audience it is designed – Russia’s dwindling cohort of aficionados, apologists and appeasers?
What is Vranyo?
"Vranyo plays an important role in defining the relationship between the Russian people and their state. The best way to understand vranyo is to contrast it with another Russian term, lozh. Both lozh and vranyo translate as “falsehood,” but there is a meaningful distinction. Lozh is a genuine lie: one party says something recognisably false while expecting to be believed. Vranyo, by contrast, describes a story told that both sides know is untrue but nonetheless is responded to as if it were the truth. In Part Four of Dostoyevsky’s The Idiot, General Ardalyon Ivolgin spins Prince Lev Nikolayevich Myshkin a tale claiming to have convinced Napoleon to retreat from Moscow. Myshkin knows the story is false and Ivolgin is likely aware of this fact, yet Ivolgin tells it with a straight face and Mishkin smiles and plays along."
"Unlike lozh, vranyo is a two-way street. The vrun (liar) does not expect to be believed, just listened to respectfully. Does Ivolgin himself believe what he’s saying? Yes and no. Though the vrun may initially be aware that their vranyo is a falsehood, they can become convinced by their own lie mid-tirade, a phenomenon Russian scholar Ronald Hingley labels as the “take off.”
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@Mr.Funnyman273
RFE/RL Schemes project identifies crew members’ names of crashed IL-76, confirms 3 deaths
"Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's investigation project Schemes identified the names of the crew members of the Russian Il-76 transport plane that crashed in Russia's Belgorod Oblast on Jan. 24 that was allegedly carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war.
"The Russian Defense Ministry claimed earlier on Jan. 24 that 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) were aboard the plane on its way for a prisoner exchange, as well as six crew members and three accompanying people. Ukraine has not confirmed whether Ukrainian POWs were on the plane.
"Schemes journalists said they had obtained a list of the six-person crew that was supposed to accompany the flight. It included 36-year-old commander Stanislav Bezzubikin, 38-year-old flight engineer Andrey Piluyev, and the ship's navigator Alexei Vysokin.
"According to Schemes, the deaths of Bezzubkin and Piluyev were confirmed by their wives, while Vysokin's death was confirmed to journalists by his cousin.
"Schemes journalists also identified flight radioman Igor Sablinsky as a member of the IL-76 crew.
"In addition, an airborne equipment flight engineer, Serhiy Zhitenyov, was listed as one of the crew members, but it has not yet been possible to confirm his death, Schemes reported.
"According to leaks from Russian databases, all five crew members serve in the 117th Military Transport Aviation Regiment, which maintains military vehicles that transport special cargo for the material support of the Russian army, Schemes journalists said.
"In March 2022, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) included their names in a list of soldiers of this regiment "who deliver weapons and ammunition to kill Ukrainian civilians."
"Following the crash on Jan. 24, Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne analyzed a list that Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan shared with the names of the Ukrainian POWs allegedly killed in the crash, confirming that the list of names are in fact Ukrainian soldiers currently held by Russia.
"Suspilne could not confirm, however, that those on the list were actually on the plane when it crashed, nor that they were potentially part of a prisoner exchange.
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@hedda2022
The Moscow Times {Part of their report}
What Do We Know About the Il-76 Crash in Belgorod?
Kyiv’s reaction
"Ukraine’s military has not taken responsibility for the disaster, but neither has it denied Moscow’s claims.
"In a press release published several hours after the crash, Ukraine’s General Staff said it would “take all measures to protect Ukraine and Ukrainians,” including targeting Russian military planes that it believes are used to transport missiles.
"Ukrainian military intelligence spokesperson Andrii Yusov told the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) news outlet that a prisoner swap was planned for Wednesday, but he could not confirm whether any Ukrainian prisoners were on board the Il-76 aircraft at the time of the crash.
"I can state that the exchange planned for today is currently not taking place," Yusov told RFE/RL.
"Ukraine also said it had no "reliable information" about who was on board the plane.
"We currently do not have reliable or comprehensive information on who was on board the plane or in what number," Ukraine's main intelligence directorate said in a statement.
"Without commenting on whether Ukrainian prisoners of war were on board, the intelligence agency accused Moscow of endangering the lives of its captured soldiers.
"Ukraine was not informed about the number of vehicles, routes and forms of delivery of prisoners," it said.
"It is known that prisoners are delivered by air, rail and road. This may indicate deliberate actions by Russia aimed at endangering the lives and safety of prisoners."
"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia was "playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners."
"It is obvious that the Russians are playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners, with the feelings of their relatives and with the emotions of our society," Zelensky said in an evening address in which he did not confirm or deny Russia's claims but called for an international investigation into what brought down the plane.
International reaction
"The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) declined to comment on the incident, saying that it "is monitoring" the news.
"The Pentagon told the Russian state-run RIA Novosti news agency that it could not comment on the crash, adding that it "has no access to the information" regarding prisoner swaps between Russia and Ukraine.
What analysts are saying
"The independent Russian news outlet iStories, citing Ukrainian open-source investigators, claimed the Il-76 had flown over Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Red Sea and Iran before disappearing from radars, only to later reappear over Russia's Belgorod region.
"It was not immediately possible to verify that report.
"Western military analysts told the BBC’s Russian service that video of Wednesday’s crash indicated the Il-76 aircraft was shot down."
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@hedda2022
It is interesting that our "Funnyman" states with regard to the pilot that "The pilot graduated from the Krasnodar Higher Military Aviation School (KVVAUL). He served in Syria, ...." which means that he was possibly among Russian pilots bombing hospitals in Syria under the direction of Sergei Surovikin, infamously known as General Armageddon. Surovikin's Wikipedia site give some insight into the reasons for his infamy.
Regarding the pilot and crew of the plane, the following information is available:
"Journalists said they had obtained a list of the six-person crew that was supposed to accompany the flight. It included 36-year-old commander Stanislav Bezzubikin, 38-year-old flight engineer Andrey Piluyev, and the ship's navigator Alexei Vysokin."
"The deaths of Bezzubkin and Piluyev were confirmed by their wives, while Vysokin's death was confirmed to journalists by his cousin."
"Journalists also identified flight radioman Igor Sablinsky as a member of the IL-76 crew."
"In addition, an airborne equipment flight engineer, Serhiy Zhitenyov, was listed as one of the crew members, but it has not yet been possible to confirm his death."
"According to leaks from Russian databases, all five crew members serve in the 117th Military Transport Aviation Regiment, which maintains military vehicles that transport special cargo for the material support of the Russian army."
"In March 2022, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) included their names in a list of soldiers of this regiment "who deliver weapons and ammunition to kill Ukrainian civilians."
Another Russian with a similar background and, I would think, of equal infamy is "The Butcher of Syria" Alexandr Dvornikov.
Wikipedia's brief description of him is:
"Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov is a Russian army general who commanded the Russian military intervention in Syria and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. {Also history in Chechnya} After joining the Soviet Army in 1978, Dvornikov rose through the ranks of the Soviet and then Russian army over a period of thirty years. Wikipedia"
🇺🇦 👍 🇺🇦
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@hedda2022
It is interesting that our "Funnyman" states with regard to the pilot that "The pilot graduated from the Krasnodar Higher Military Aviation School (KVVAUL). He served in Syria, ...." which means that he was possibly among Russian pilots bombing hospitals in Syria under the direction of Sergei Surovikin, infamously known as General Armageddon. Surovikin's Wikipedia site give some insight into the reasons for his infamy.
Regarding the pilot and crew of the plane, the following information is available:
"Journalists said they had obtained a list of the six-person crew that was supposed to accompany the flight. It included 36-year-old commander Stanislav Bezzubikin, 38-year-old flight engineer Andrey Piluyev, and the ship's navigator Alexei Vysokin."
"The deaths of Bezzubkin and Piluyev were confirmed by their wives, while Vysokin's death was confirmed to journalists by his cousin."
"Journalists also identified flight radioman Igor Sablinsky as a member of the IL-76 crew."
"In addition, an airborne equipment flight engineer, Serhiy Zhitenyov, was listed as one of the crew members, but it has not yet been possible to confirm his death."
"According to leaks from Russian databases, all five crew members serve in the 117th Military Transport Aviation Regiment, which maintains military vehicles that transport special cargo for the material support of the Russian army."
"In March 2022, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) included their names in a list of soldiers of this regiment "who deliver weapons and ammunition to kill Ukrainian civilians."
Another Russian with a similar background and, I would think, of equal infamy is "The Butcher of Syria" Alexandr Dvornikov. Wikipedia's brief description of him is:
"Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov is a Russian army general who commanded the Russian military intervention in Syria and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. {Also history in Chechnya} After joining the Soviet Army in 1978, Dvornikov rose through the ranks of the Soviet and then Russian army over a period of thirty years. Wikipedia"
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Initially I agreed with your comment, though I do still agree with some of the details you have written.
Ukraine is said to be producing between a third and a half of their military requirements. And that is from a "standing start", three years ago. Some of Ukraine's production is in defined areas, but so are those of other countries. They each compliment one another.
It is clear that Europe's present and projected capacity to meet their own needs, increased because of ruZZia's WAR against Ukraine, and those of Ukraine should not be unattainable already, or within a short period of time - months, not years. Forget the US, if they are not interested in participating in support for Ukraine, and therefore, support for Europe; the US meeting and fulfilling their own previously agreed commitments.
Personally, I believe Europe is going to have to stand together, because the US is very likely to be dealing with their own internal troubles over the next few years. That may even be with the possibility of civil war.
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Unfortunately, the idea that earlier supply of hardware to Ukraine, "Would decimate Russian forces and bring about a rapid and decisive victory to Ukraine" is, for a variety of reasons, just a figment of your imagination that is shared by many others.
Your comment implies that Russia would have mobilised all their hardware, equipment and personnel at one time, at which time the Ukrainians would have eliminated the lot. That is the only way that would "leave Russian forces so {decimated?} that they couldn’t threaten anyone again!" That is especially so without Ukrainian forces actually entering Russian territory.
Even then, Ukraine is unlikely to have succeeded in significantly diminishing, or even 'decimating' {meaning reducing by one tenth}, Russia's capacity to wage WAR against Ukraine or any other country. It is highly im-probable that the Russians would have launched all of their available resources at one time, or even within a relatively short space of time.
It is only by the continuing attrition of Russian forces, equipment and hardware that your projection of bringing about a "a ...... decisive victory to Ukraine" would have any chance of becoming reality. That is exactly what is being accomplished at the present time, and how it is being achieved.
A war fought more quickly and 'hotter' would very likely have seen the Ukrainians overwhelmed and defeated by the Russians in 2022. In this case there may have been far greater numbers of Ukrainian civilians, military personnel, hardware and equipment 'eliminated', and far greater levels of property destruction throughout Ukraine. The outcome would then, most likely, have been defeat for Ukraine. The majority of commenters would have been absolutely gutted by that outcome. 🇺🇦 👍 🇺🇦
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Some people, particularly those cheering for the Russian position, are claiming the relinquishing of Bakhmut, by the Ukrainians, as a significant victory for Russia. However, I would offer a few points for consideration in order to bring this "capture" of territory into some sort of perspective.
The capture of the place where the city of Bakhmut lay has been referred to as a Pyrrhic victory; that is, a victory with little or no value to the "victor" and at a an immensely disproportionate cost in terms of the lives lost to the "victorious" army.
"A Pyrrhic victory is a victory that inflicts such a devastating toll on the victor that it is tantamount to defeat. Such a victory negates any true sense of achievement or damages long-term progress. Wikipedia"
Perhaps, Bakhmut has, in this way, served the Ukrainians well from a military perspective, and protected other towns and cities further away from the front lines.
When viewed in relation to the retreats, withdrawals, and routs of Russian forces from Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson, which some seem to have conveniently forgotten or deliberately overlooked, the location of Bakhmut was always of relatively little value except, possibly, to the people who once lived there. There certainly appears to be nothing of value to the victors where the city of Bakhmut once stood. In fact, it may even be considered a liability and a sponge for resources. The Russians, early in the full-scale insurgency and invasion of Ukraine, illegally occupied about 28% of internationally recognised Ukrainian territory. They now illegally occupy less than half of what they had previously claimed.
All these retreats occurred despite Russians and their insurgent and insurrectionist, so-called "separatists", holding Crimea and much of the Donbas region since 2014.
POPULATIONS: Bakhmut Population: ~70,000; Avdiivka Population: ~32,436 (2020)
Kyiv Population: 2.884 million (2017) Kharkiv Population: 1.419 million (2017)
Kherson Population: 289,697 (2017); Sumy Population: 264,753 (2017)
** KYIV, ** 4 April 2022
With heavy losses and the inability to make further progress, Russia withdrew its forces from Kyiv and Zhytomyr oblasts in April 2022, and Ukrainian forces retook control.
Kremlin officials have announced plans to withdraw troops from the Kyiv region in what is widely being seen as tacit recognition of Russia’s failure to seize the Ukrainian capital. The Russian retreat from Kyiv is the strongest signal to date that Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine War is not going according to plan.
Speaking on March 29, and in an apparent attempt to spare Putin’s blushes, Fomin said the move was aimed at “increasing mutual trust, creating the right conditions for future negotiations, and reaching the final goal of signing a peace deal with Ukraine.” What an absolute parody of the real situation that Russia had created and continues to pursue.
** SUMY, ** 4 April 2022
The Battle of Sumy was a military engagement which began on 24 February 2022, during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, as part of the Northeastern Ukraine offensive, and ended on 4 April 2022 when Russia withdrew all of its forces from Sumy Oblast.
** KHARKIV, ** 13 September 2022
Russian forces have been 'ordered to retreat' from Kharkiv and the advancing Ukrainian troops, as some Russians leave weapons behind in ‘apparent panic’.
The Russian troops are to focus instead, on defending their position in the eastern Donbas region, according to western intelligence sources.
Ukrainian forces have reclaimed more than two thousand square miles of territory as they continue their counter-offensive, the country’s president Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday, regaining key locations in the Kharkiv region.
** KHERSON, ** 9 November 2022
After Russian troops seized Kherson in March, they were ordered to retreat from Kherson in face of Ukrainian advance. Loss of the only regional capital captured by Moscow since invasion began will come as significant blow to Vladimir Putin.
The retreat occurred only weeks after a high-profile ceremony in Moscow in which he announced the “forever” annexation of the Kherson region, along with three others.
Even before they pulled off their jaw-dropping counter-offensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region, Ukrainian troops had thrashed Russian forces in the Kherson region 600 kilometres to the southwest, aided by powerful and precise Western weaponry.
The same powerful and precise weaponry, that Ukraine has in inventory and available from other countries, has increased massively in quantity and qualitative value since November 2022. While I do not think it is possible to accurately evaluate what is Russia's present military strength, it is, most likely now, significantly less than it had available in the fourth quarter of 2022. While Ukraine's capacity is increasing, I believe that Russia's capacity is decreasing at an unsustainable rate.
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine 🇺🇦
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Totally agreed and supported, but I do not believe ruZZia would be content with simply acquiring and subjugating Ukraine.
Once ruZZia has Ukraine, then the smaller western Black Sea countries, Moldova (not a NATO Alliance country), Romania and Bulgaria, are at risk. Both Romania and Bulgaria are difficult to support from the West. Then, with the support of Victor Orbán in Hungary and Robert Fico in Slovakia, Poland and Czechia have ruZZia on their Eastern borders.
But, I do not believe ruZZia will move further West from Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. It is more likely, once they have created the Russian Azov/Black Sea Lake, that they will then concentrate on the Suwałki Gap, between Poland and Lithuania. This would give ruZZia a clear route via Belarus to Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea. ruZZia will then have divided the Baltic and Scandinavian countries from the Southern European countries. Next Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
There is much more to the aspirations of the ruZZian political and military establishment.
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@annikamyren3026
Combination probably. If everything was "going to plan" for the Ruschists, they would not be worried about what were the mood or whether the feelings of people in Free World countries were positive or negative.
Frankly, I believe that the so-called "negative feelings" in other countries are, to a large degree, appearances created by the Russian propaganda. I really do not think that the mood or feelings in other countries have changed much in the last few weeks; certainly not reduced or diminished.
Over the past few months, the vile, vitriolic and malevolent rhetoric and continued threats of nuclear strikes, by the Russians, have really served to increase the negative feelings toward Russia and the determination of the majority of people to continue to support Ukraine. Not just to continue to support Ukraine, but to increase the provision, in quantity, firepower and range of weapons to Ukraine, for use against the Ruschist military.
The views of the Ruschist media and Kremlin are presented, with English subtitles, by Julia Davis' YouTube videos on the "Russian media Monitor" website. Also, the "1420" YouTube website, by Daniil Orain, shows the views of Russian people interviewed, from a wide range of ages, occupations and backgrounds on a comprehensive range of topics.
The Ruschists are really their own worst enemy. Consider the outbursts, anger and visciousnes of the Ruschist media people, Mardan, Skabeyeva, Solovyov, Simonyan, their associates, guest speakers and panelists. If anything is likely to enrage people in the Free World, it is those operators, the Kremlin-gremlin and all the other speakers for the Russian political and military establishment.
Even in the US, the opposition, by some of the members of government, is likely to increase and cement the likely support for Ukraine among the general population, rather than diminish it.
I certainly hope that I am correct.
🇺🇦 Best Wishes to all people supporting Ukraine 🇺🇦
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@harrymoyes5069
From a web-search of "ORYX hardware losses in Ukraine"
🇷🇺Russia & 🇺🇦Ukraine Hardware Losses 24 February 2022 to 7 September 2023
🇷🇺Total - 12004, of which: destroyed: 8206, damaged: 479, abandoned: 446, captured: 2873
🇺🇦Total - 4375, of which: destroyed: 2946, damaged: 334, abandoned: 149, captured: 946
🇷🇺Tanks - 2290, of which destroyed: 1482, damaged: 129, abandoned: 132, captured: 549
🇺🇦Tanks - 642, of which destroyed: 415, damaged: 53, abandoned: 31, captured: 143
🇷🇺Command Posts And Communications Stations (250, of which destroyed: 163, damaged: 2, abandoned: 2, captured: 83)
🇺🇦Command Posts And Communications Stations (16, of which destroyed: 12, captured: 4)
🇷🇺Radars (45, of which destroyed: 29, damaged: 4, captured: 9)
🇺🇦Radars And Communications Equipment (75, of which destroyed: 57, damaged: 7, abandoned: 1 captured: 11)
🇷🇺Engineering Vehicles And Equipment (340, of which destroyed: 168, damaged: 9, abandoned: 38, captured: 125)
🇺🇦Engineering Vehicles And Equipment (79, of which destroyed: 42, damaged: 8, abandoned: 4, captured: 25)
🇷🇺Self-Propelled Anti-Tank Missile Systems (41, of which destroyed: 17, damaged: 1, abandoned: 4, captured: 19)
🇺🇦Self-Propelled Anti-Tank Missile Systems (21, of which destroyed: 8, abandoned: 1, captured: 12)
🇷🇺Artillery Support Vehicles And Equipment (107, of which destroyed: 53, abandoned: 2, captured: 52)
🇺🇦Artillery Support Vehicles And Equipment (23, of which destroyed: 10, captured: 13)
🇷🇺Towed Artillery (296, of which destroyed: 169, damaged: 26, abandoned: 5, captured: 96)
🇺🇦Towed Artillery (157, of which destroyed: 87, damaged: 50, abandoned: 2, captured: 18)
🇷🇺Self-Propelled Artillery (512, of which destroyed: 368, damaged: 30, abandoned: 7, captured: 107)
🇺🇦Self-Propelled Artillery (213, of which destroyed: 143, damaged: 47, captured: 23)
🇷🇺Multiple Rocket Launchers (262, of which destroyed: 192, damaged: 16, abandoned: 2, captured: 52)
🇺🇦Multiple Rocket Launchers (50, of which destroyed: 32, damaged: 9, captured: 9)
🇷🇺Anti-Aircraft Guns (17, of which destroyed: 3, captured: 14)
🇺🇦Anti-Aircraft Guns (4, of which captured: 4)
🇷🇺Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns (25, of which destroyed: 14, damaged: 1, abandoned: 2, captured: 8)
🇺🇦Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns (6, of which destroyed: 2, damaged: 1, captured: 3)
🇷🇺Radars (45, of which destroyed: 29, damaged: 4, captured: 9)
🇺🇦Radars And Communications Equipment (75, of which destroyed: 57, damaged: 7, abandoned: 1 captured: 11)
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@timur43378 Unfortunately, it is you whose statements are wrong, and repeating them will not change that.
Russian Aggression and contempt shown and demonstrated toward other countries.
Unfortunately, Putin has too high an opinion of himself and his military. The fact that you repeat his dictates, as to how others should act, puts you in the same category. Putin appears to falsely believe that he and his country have the right to tell any other nation how they can or cannot act. This very clearly shows the contempt that he and his menagerie have for the politicians and the populations of other countries.
Given that he has shown that contempt and backed it up with both military aggression and vitriolic verbal rhetoric means that he and his country are soon to feel the results of their vile speech and their viscous behaviour.
It is now the time for the countries, against which Putin and his menagerie have directed that speech and behaviour, to show him and his political and military menagerie, just what those countries think of his verbal diarrhoea and physical tantrums. He can expect a response that reflects back everything that he and the Moscow menagerie have said and done against all other countries. I believe that he and his crew will feel as though they have been more than severely chastised.
If you cannot play fair, and you treat others with derision and contempt, you are liable to have to accept the consequences which may be as unpleasant as your own words and actions.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Putin's revanchist statements about re-establishing the USSR or the same by any other name, clearly indicate that he and the Russian political, military and media establishment would attack NATO countries. It would be necessary to do so in order to achieve the stated goals and objectives of the Russian establishment.
Russia is highly unlikely to display maps of its future plans to invade any country in advance. With regard to Russia's invasion and WAR, waged against Ukraine, Russia even stated, right up to the day, that there was no reason to invade Ukraine and that Russia would not do so. Yet that is exactly what Russia did, with less that 24 hours notice.
In the following treatise, I have referred to the Google "Map Of Europe."
The countries to the East of Russia are not the only ones at imminent risk, but also the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, as well as Poland, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. Given the current political situation in Hungary and Slovakia, either or both of those countries could possibly capitulate following successful attacks, by the Russians, on Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria.
It is not a matter of what Russia is ABLE to do. It is really a question as to whether Russia, delusionally {in the strict sense of the word, to my way of thinking}, or in spite of Russia's apparent ignorance of their real and inadequate military capacity against that of the NATO Defensive Alliance {32 countries} and other supporting countries {about 30 at present}, believe that they can achieve their stated goals and objectives of re-instituting the former USSR, by that or any other name. And we know that the intended "revanchism" has been stated by Putin and others in Russia, directly and implicitly.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
To accomplish Russia's goals and objectives, Russia would have to attack other NATO Defensive Alliance member countries. First, Moldova, {not an Alliance member country}, then connecting with Transnistria (1), on the long {aprox 200 km} North-Eastern border between Ukraine and Moldova, where ~500 or more {OGRF} (2) Russian military personnel are said to be stationed. Then Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO Alliance member countries, but difficult to support from the West because of the Carpathian Mountains and, if they chose to support Russia, Hungary and Slovakia to the North-West.
This portion of the {possible} Russian plan would have to be completed by surprise and with guile, subterfuge and speed, which we know to be trade-marks of the Russian style. At this stage, with the Eastern portions of Ukraine illegally occupied and controlled by the Russians; Georgia, on the Eastern side of the Black Sea, effectively hobbled; Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria secured; the only other country with a Black Sea coastline is Turkey. The question would then arise as to how much soft economic, or hard military pressure, Russia would have to impose to make Turkey compliant to Russia's wishes and intentions. At which time, the Azov and Black Seas become, effectively, a Russian Azov/Black Sea lake.
NATO Defensive Alliance, Article 5. The key section of the NATO Defensive Alliance treaty is Article 5. Its commitment clause defines the "casus foederis". It commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state, in the areas defined by Article 6, to be an armed attack against them all.
Having accomplished control of the Black Sea, Russia will have effectively covered the Southern flank of any possible attack against them as they proceed East via the Suwalki Gap, through Belarus. Though, by this time, the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries will have been fully mobilised, under NATO Article 5, as a result of attacks on Romania and Bulgaria. Troops from NATO member countries would then be free to cross and operate within the Polish and Ukrainian borders {with the permission and approval of each country} against the Russians. No wonder Poland has strengthened their Northern and Eastern borders.
The Suwalki Gap traverses the Northern portion of the Polish border, which is also adjacent to the Lithuanian border. It may be considered and has been referred to as the "THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE ON EARTH. In a showdown between Russia and NATO, the 'Suwałki Gap' would likely be the first point of contact. By Matthew Karnitschnig in Druskininkai, Lithuania"
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The Russians would then likely mount an assault on the 100 km {~60 mile} Suwalki Gap, between Belarus and Kaliningrad. The Russians have conventional and, it is generally believed, nuclear weapons in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Russia is also understood to have moved nuclear weapons into Belarus. With the Suwalki Gap secured, Russia will have successfully divided the Southern European countries from the Northern Baltic and Scandinavian countries. Russia will also have carved a direct route from Russia to the Baltic Sea.
Then the very small countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. In Russia's attempts to accomplish these goals and objectives, and irrespective of their success or failure, Russia could be the cause of hundreds of thousands {possibly millions} of deaths of civilians and military personnel and massive levels of destruction. All of which we have already seen, as a result of Russian military actions in Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and other countries. However, future outcomes of Russia's aggression could be on a very much larger scale, without any compunction or moral scruple of any sort on Russia's part.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Russia's claim is, "The only rule of WAR is the outcome", which is a direct counter to, and repudiation of all the international agreements to which Russia is signatory. But, we have already seen, on numerous occasions, that Russia has no regard for Agreements, Memoranda and Treaties when they do no match with Russia's immediate needs or wishes. The issue is not whether Russia can subjugate, subordinate and dominate other countries, but instead, the death and destruction that Russia will cause in attempting to achieve those goals and objectives.
All the death and destruction in Ukraine is intended to intimidate, not only Ukrainians, but also the populations in Western Europe. This is, presumably, in an effort to "encourage" or "persuade" Europeans to sacrifice Ukraine {and possibly other smaller countries} with the intention of saving themselves from a similar fate to that imposed by the Russians on Ukraine. However, such a sacrifice will not save Western Europeans, but rather, will just postpone the inevitable future attacks by Russia. Particularly as Russia gets stronger with each conquest.
We have also seen that Russia seems oblivious to the difference between the combined resources of the NATO Defensive Alliance of 32 countries, and the 30 additional countries assisting and supporting Ukraine, with respect to Russia's own resources as well as any other resources available to Russia from Iran, North Korea, possibly China and any other countries that may support Russia.
==================================
Anyone not already familiar with the videos on Julia Davis' "Russian Media Monitor" YouTube website, I recommend web-searching and viewing them. They are extracts from material presented to the Russian population through Russian TV broadcasts, with very clear and, I believe, accurate English language subtitles. Some of the material could variously be described as horrifying, unbelievable, comical in its absurdity, confronting and numerous other descriptive words. Please do check them out.
Another website, that may be of interest, consists of interviews with 'ordinary' Russians in the street about their views on a wide range of topics. Those videos can be seen on Daniil Orain's YouTube website, "1420".
References from Wikipedia:
1) "Lying between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, Transnistria is 200 kilometres in length, and in some places only two kilometres wide. This strip of land is officially called the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), and has a population of around 500,000."
2) "The Operational Group of Russian Forces {OGRF} in Transnistria is a sizable overseas military task force of the Russian Armed Forces." The OGRF ostensibly remains in Transnistria to guard the ammunition depot at Cobasna. It also provides additional support to the Armed Forces of Transnistria. Today, around 350–400 troops with the operational force report directly to the JCC and can be assigned to it at any given time."
3) The JCC. "Following the Transnistria War, the Joint Control Commission {JCC} was established on the initiative of Moldovan and Russian presidents Mircea Snegur and Boris Yeltsin by the signing of a cease-fire agreement on July 21, 1992. It consists of soldiers and officers from Moldovan, Transnistian and Russian military."
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When viewed in relation to the retreats, withdrawals, and routs of Russian forces from Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson, which some seem to have conveniently forgotten or deliberately overlooked, the location of Bakhmut was always of relatively little value except, possibly, to the people who once lived there and all Ukrainians. There certainly appears to be nothing of value to the victors where the city of Bakhmut once stood. In fact, it may even be considered a liability and a sponge for resources.
All these retreats occurred despite Russians and their insurgent and insurrectionist, so-called "separatists", holding Crimea and much of the Donbas region since 2014.
POPULATIONS: Bakhmut Population: ~70,000;
Kyiv Population: 2.884 million (2017) Kharkiv Population: 1.419 million (2017)
Kherson Population: 289,697 (2017); Sumy Population: 264,753 (2017)
** KYIV, ** 4 April 2022
With heavy losses and the inability to make further progress, Russia withdrew its forces from Kyiv and Zhytomyr oblasts in April 2022, and Ukrainian forces retook control.
Kremlin officials have announced plans to withdraw troops from the Kyiv region in what is widely being seen as tacit recognition of Russia’s failure to seize the Ukrainian capital. The Russian retreat from Kyiv is the strongest signal to date that Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine War is not going according to plan.
Speaking on March 29, and in an apparent attempt to spare Putin’s blushes, Fomin said the move was aimed at “increasing mutual trust, creating the right conditions for future negotiations, and reaching the final goal of signing a peace deal with Ukraine.” What an absolute parody of the real situation that Russia had created and continues to pursue.
** SUMY, ** 4 April 2022
The Battle of Sumy was a military engagement which began on 24 February 2022, during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, as part of the Northeastern Ukraine offensive, and ended on 4 April 2022 when Russia withdrew all of its forces from Sumy Oblast.
** KHARKIV, ** 13 September 2022
Russian forces have been 'ordered to retreat' from Kharkiv and the advancing Ukrainian troops, as some Russians leave weapons behind in ‘apparent panic’.
The Russian troops are to focus instead, on defending their position in the eastern Donbas region, according to western intelligence sources.
Ukrainian forces have reclaimed more than two thousand square miles of territory as they continue their counter-offensive, the country’s president Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday, regaining key locations in the Kharkiv region.
** KHERSON, ** 9 November 2022
After Russian troops seized Kherson in March, they were ordered to retreat from Kherson in face of Ukrainian advance. Loss of the only regional capital captured by Moscow since invasion began will come as significant blow to Vladimir Putin.
The retreat occurred only weeks after a high-profile ceremony in Moscow in which he announced the “forever” annexation of the Kherson region, along with three others.
Even before they pulled off their jaw-dropping counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region, Ukrainian troops had thrashed Russian forces in the Kherson region 600 kilometres to the southwest, aided by powerful and precise Western weaponry.
The powerful and precise weaponry, that Ukraine has in inventory and available within other countries, has increased massively in quantity and qualitative value since November last year. While I do not think it is possible to accurately evaluate what is Russia's present military strength, the Russian military strength is, most likely now, significantly less than it had available in the fourth quarter of 2022. While Ukraine's capacity is increasing, I believe that Russia's capacity is decreasing at an unsustainable rate.
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Speaking as an Australian observer of events in Ukraine. It will not only be a matter of securing the safety of the civilians in the communities and cities of Ukraine, but also of other European countries. The head and body of the 'ruzzian' political, military and media establishment have clearly stated the intention of advancing militarily past Ukraine to other European countries.
See the 'ruzzian' TV broadcasts, with English subtitles on Julia Davis' "Russian Media Monitor" for actual statements made by 'ruzzian' TV media "hosts", "guests" and "panellists" -who- that spew their Kremlin initiated vile, vitriolic and malevolent utterances. Just three examples from the website "YouTube · Russian Media Monitor" are:
"Top Russian propagandist (Solovyov) claims that Russia is embroiled in a holy war against Ukraine and the West". Another
"Pundit stuns the host by admitting Russia's expansionist goals go beyond Ukraine" and
"Head of RT Margarita Simonyan endorses torture".
Ukraine, with the materiel assistance and support of member countries of the NATO Defensive Alliance and other countries, will stop the 'ruzzians' and evict them from the internationally recognised territories of Ukraine. Alternatively, it will be the troops of member countries of the NATO Defensive Alliance that will be having to fight the 'ruzzians' and respond to 'ruzzian' artillery, tanks, missiles and bombs in their own countries. And those shells, fired by 'ruzzian' artillery and tanks and the missiles and bombs will be hitting the communities, cities and territories of other European countries.
💚🇦🇺Aus💛 - ❤🇬🇧🤍UK💙 - 💛🇪🇺EU💙
❤🇨🇦Can🤍 - 💙🇺🇦Ukr💛 - ❤🇺🇸🤍US💙
🖤🇳🇿NZ❤
🤍
and ~ 30 other countries also.
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Rapid End to WAR & Attrition of Military Resources.
The current conference/coalition of nearly 60 countries will continue to support Ukraine until the primary objective has been achieved. There will be no peace in this world until those goals have been achieved and Russia is, in some way, restrained from attacking other countries.
Many people are saying, "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed". What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is that:
#** February 2022 Russia had nearly 3 times as many tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
Russia 3,400 tanks Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
Russia 990 tanks Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
Russia 2,200 Artillery Ukraine 1,900 Artillery {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
Russia 773 Artillery Ukraine 1,100 Artillery {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
Russia 1,100 MLRS Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the numbers of MLRS are:
Russia 354 MLRS Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of nearly 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware. That may well have been greater, for Russia, because of respective levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms being used, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its land-based hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads, bridges and fuel stocks and storages, that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
The figures above do not include the areas where Russia retains superiority; jet fighter air-craft, Su-95 heavy bombers, ships and submarines in the Black and Caspian Seas. However, since February 2022, Russia has lost; 315 air-craft, 310 helicopters, 18 Ships and boats, including the flagship, Moskva.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
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Considering attrition, I'm not so sure that Russia does have a huge advantage.
Rapid End to WAR & Attrition of Military Resources.
Many people are saying, "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed". What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is that:
#** February 2022 Russia had nearly 3 times as many tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
-- Russia 3,400 tanks
-- Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
-- Russia 990 tanks
-- Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
-- Russia 2,200 Artillery/Heavy guns
-- Ukraine 1,900 Artillery/Heavy guns {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
-- Russia 773 Artillery/Heavy guns
-- Ukraine 1,100 Artillery/Heavy guns {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
-- Russia 1,100 MLRS
-- Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the numbers of MLRS are:
-- Russia 354 MLRS
-- Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of about 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware. That may well have been even greater because of levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads and bridges that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine 🇺🇦
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@heathermccall8015
It is interesting to note that neither #namur-iq6ih , that is a regular Russian troll, appears not to be able to understand the imperative that exists for Ukrainians to defend themselves, their families, communities, cities and country against the insurgency, invasion, incitement to insurrection and subsequent WAR waged by Russia against Ukraine.
The Russian political, military and media establishment have offered absolutely nothing that Ukrainians would want. Instead the Russians have provided, through their speach and actions, every reason for Ukrainians to resist and fight against the continuing presence of the Russians on Ukraine's internationally recognised territory.
How could anyone imagine submitting and capitulating to such a country that has treated Ukraine in the way that Russia has? Russia has attempted to subjugate, subordinate and dominate the Ukrainian people and bring them into servitude of the Russian Federation. It is not only Ukraine that has been treated in this manner, but other European countries in the past. Consequently, on the basis of present experience and the experiences of the other countries, the only option for Ukrainians is to fight for their freedom and sovereignty.
It would be better to fight to the death, than to submit to a country of people that acts in such a barbarous and chillingly malevolent manner, as the Russians have recently, and in the near and distant past. Anyone who cannot see and understand that is willfully blind, literally and metaphorically.
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine, Absolute Victory 🇺🇦
{PS. I have addressed this comment to you #heathermccall8015 , in order that any youtube credit or acknowledgement goes to you and not to any other in a way that would contribute to their "score" of replies by which they may otherwise earn income from their troll-farm activities and management.}
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@EASTSIDERIDER707
Rapid End to WAR
&
Attrition of Military Resources.
Many people are saying, "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed". What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is that:
#** February 2022 Russia had many more than 3 times as many operational tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
-- Russia 3,400 tanks
-- Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
-- Russia 990 tanks
-- Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
-- Russia 2,200 Artillery/Heavy guns
-- Ukraine 1,900 Artillery/Heavy guns {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
-- Russia 773 Artillery/Heavy guns
-- Ukraine 1,100 Artillery/Heavy guns {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
-- Russia 1,100 MLRS
-- Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023
Today, the numbers of MLRS are:
-- Russia 354 MLRS
-- Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of much more than 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware and personnel. That may well have been greater because of levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads and bridges that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
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Reasons for "Considered, Measured and Proportional Response."
There is, effectively, a conference of countries of which the UK, the US; in accordance with their commitments made under the provisions of the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine of course, Poland, Germany, and approximately 50 other countries, are members. The decisions made are arrived at by consensus among the participating countries, with Ukraine having the deciding voice. One of the issues that appears to have been clear is the concept of "Measured and Proportional Response".
Issues to be considered in the provision of hardware and resources are logistics, supply lines, facilities for repair - {Repairing tanks is not like taking the SUV to the local repairer for brake disc and pad replacement}, combinations of other support vehicles and aircraft in operations; consideration of how the hardware is to be used and, probably most important of all, adequate training and experience for the personnel who will be operating the hardware and equipment.
While I acknowledge and understand the frustration that millions of people are experiencing, the consequences of escalating beyond what is referred to as a "proportional response", may be even hhigher lossses of lives of military personnel and civilians, and far greater devastation and hardship for Ukrainians than they are already experiencing.
Such a possibility may be difficult to conceive, but Ukraine would be the first likely target if the RuZZians decided to really test the resolve of the "west" or "free world". If the RuZZians were to fire a small number of so-called "tactical" nuclear weapons {just a smaller version of an intercontinental Balistic missile (ICBM)} against the major western cities of Ukraine, I leave it to you to web-search information about the possible consequences.
The article, in the website below, provides some details on what the response, by western nations, but specifically by the US, to the firing of a nuclear weapon by RuZZia would be. You may wish to read and consider the details, as the possibilities concern us all.
"What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine? A look at the grim scenarios — and the U.S. playbook for each."
By Eric Schlosser June 20, 2022
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Rapid End to WAR
&
Attrition of Military Resources.
There will be no military stalemate or frozen conflict "at close to the current lines". Neither will there be a ceasefire before the RuZZian military and administrative personnel have been ejected from internationally recognised Ukrainian territory. Those who have been charged and found guilty of crimes, including war crimes will be sentenced appropriately for the crimes committed.
The current conference/coalition of nearly 60 countries will continue to support Ukraine until the primary objective has been achieved. There will be no peace in this world until those goals have been achieved and Russia is, in some way, restrained from attacking other countries.
Many people are saying, "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed". What people seem to forget, or simply do not know is that:
#** February 2022 Russia had more than times as many operational tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
Russia 3,400 tanks Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
Russia 990 tanks Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
Russia 2,200 Artillery Ukraine 1,900 Artillery {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
Russia 773 Artillery Ukraine 1,100 Artillery {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
Russia 1,100 MLRS Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the numbers of MLRS are:
Russia 354 MLRS Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of much more than 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware. That may well have been greater, for Russia, because of respective levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms being used, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its land-based hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads, bridges, fuel stocks, fuel refinery production capacity and storages, planes and ships that Russia relies on for military operations, movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
The figures above do not include the areas where Russia retains superiority; jet fighter air-craft, Su-95 heavy bombers, ships and submarines in the Black and Caspian Seas. However, since February 2022, Russia has lost more than; 315 air-craft, 310 helicopters, 25 Ships and boats, including the flagship, Moskva.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
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Russia is advancing backward, by retreats, withdrawals and routs from Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson. And at present, desperately clinging to trench, "dragon's tooth" and mine networks, to which their attachment is getting weaker by the day. Great achievement Ukraine.
From the illegal occupation of 28% of Ukraine's territory by March 2022, after its full-scale invasion in February 2022, to less than 15% in November 2022. This figure is constantly diminishing as is Russia's hardware, land, sea and air-force assets. Likewise, the senior officers and rank and file personnel of the Russian military.
With no navy, Ukraine has damaged or destroyed the following navy assets:
Naval Ships and Submarines (16, of which destroyed: 11, damaged: 5)
1 Project 1164 Slava-class guided missile cruiser: (1, Moskva, sunk)
1 Project 636.3 Improved Kilo-class submarine: (1, B-237 'Rostov-na-Donu', damaged beyond economical repair)
5 Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged)
1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 640 small patrol boat: (1)
1 Project 1171 Tapir-class landing ship: (1, BDK-65 'Saratov', destroyed)
3 Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship: (1, 'Minsk', damaged beyond economical repair) (1, damaged) (2, 'Olenegorsky Gornyak', damaged)
1 Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 22870 rescue tug: (1, SB-739 V'asily Bekh', destroyed)
1 Project 266M Natya-class minesweeper: (1, damaged)
Russia, with the "2nd strongest military in the world" has made no progress in the last twelve months, despite their meat grinder approach to waging war. The only exception being the Pyrrhic victory of Bakhmut, not taken by the Russian military forces, but by the Wagner PMC.
"The 2nd Strongest military in the world" is being beaten by a country that Russia had militarily emasculated by agreements between 1991 to 1997. Yet the Kremlin claims that it intends to de-militarise Ukraine. Russia is using the same military hardware, including all the Tu-95 heavy bombers, transferred at that time to Russia from Ukraine, in this WAR against Ukraine. And yet Russia has not been able to subdue, subjugate, subordinate and drag the Ukrainians into servitude to the Russian Federation.
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I think that this WAR, waged by Russia, was doomed to fail on the 24 February 2022. And possibly even as far back as 20 February 2014. It appears obvious that Putin, either had no idea that the sentiment in Ukraine {the whole of Ukraine} was so anti being dominated by Russia, nor understood the overall sentiment prevailing on Ukraine at that time. Indeed, most other countries had little idea until the "Revolution of Dignity" in Ukraine, in February 2014 at the end of the Euro-Maidan protests 2013-14.
It is apparent, what many believe the Russians should now do, is what happened in Ukraine during the Euro-Maidan protests.
Now Ukraine CAN NOT allow Russia to succeed in their stated or unstated {secret} goals and objectives. If Ukraine permits those objectives to be achieved, in part or in full, it will be the end of Ukraine.
The Free World WILL NOT allow Russia to succeed in their stated or unstated {secret} goals and objectives. If Russia is allowed or permitted to succeed, it will create an incredibly dangerous precedent that will amount to a significant and dangerous destabilization of world political and military conditions.
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A Short Hypothetical Essay on Russia's Future Success or Defeat
The Russians may have massive underground or 'in the side of mountain' caches, like other countries, such as Iran are said to have, of military and air-force weapons they have accumulated over the previous recent years. It may be intended to bring this military hardware out at the "last minute" and spring a very unpleasant surprise. While I do not believe this is necessarily so, I believe that at least some attention must be given to the possibility, so that if the trap is sprung by the Russians, the Ukrainian military and their supporters will be adequately prepared.
I most certainly hope that the Russians are reduced now, to using older, almost antiquated weapons and transport, such as T55 and T54 tanks. However, I find it difficult to believe that Russia would have allowed their weapon stocks to be reduced to that level. That is particularly so, when the one area about which the Russians should be least concerned, in reality {not their imaginations}, is the defensive alliance of countries in NATO. Surely, simple logic would not have allowed them to rely, as a last resort, on their nuclear weapons. That should be especially so, given that if any of the Russian nuclear weapons were to be fired, Russian targets will receive a barrage by conventional weapons, that will annihilate the military targets at which they would be fired {as distinct from the civilian areas that the Russians attack with air and ground launched missiles and artillery rounds}. That conventional weapons barrage would occur before the US, the UK, France, Germany or any other country, apart from Russia, ever fired any nuclear weapons.
As I was thinking about the possibility of Russia ending up requesting NATO for assistance in their defence, another possibility occurred to me. Such a situation could occur if, about ten years ago, Russia decided that taking Ukraine was an all or nothing gambit. They realised that their oil and gas was only going to be a profitable market commodity for a limited number of years, given the push to "go green". So with an ever decreasing income, ageing manufacturing capacity and limited sea ports for distribution of their products, the acquisition of Ukraine, with its resources and the means of distributing products by sea, might have seemed to be a way of solving their dilemma. This situation would mean that they could attempt to take Ukraine and, if unsuccessful, could throw themselves on the mercy of what they refer to as the "west" which I prefer to call the "free world" {More inclusive}.
In the situation that I have outlined, the Russians could step, militarily, right up to the point of using nuclear weapons. They would know that there would be extremely limited chances of other countries striking their territory. They would also feel safe and assured that no nuclear weapons would be fired unless the Russians did so pre-emptively. At the point where they saw that their conventional weapons had been exhausted and their bluff, in terms of a nuclear weapons attack, had been "called", they would then have to concede defeat and rely on the "free world" for their protection {possibly from the Chinese}. The Russians would also know that the "free world" would not want to see the uncontrolled collapse of the Russian Federation. Those “free world” countries would then, in some ways, feel bound by their own concerns to support Russia. This could be accomplished by something akin to the "Marshall Plan" that was instituted, in Europe, following the second world war. In this way, the "free world" also has a positive outcome. However, during that time, Ukraine will have had to endure the agonies of war.
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I would expect that Henry Kisinger prepared copious notes during his time in the diplomatic service and positions held in the US. Undoubtedly, many of the following expressions are copies of his own words, or his own versions and interpretations of statements made and heard during that time.
================
"It is a mistake to assume that diplomacy can always settle international disputes (even) if there is "good faith" and "willingness to come to an agreement"."
"For in a revolutionary international order, each power will seem to its opponents to lack precisely these qualities. [...] In the absence of an agreement on what constitutes a reasonable demand, diplomatic conferences are occupied with sterile repetitions of basic positions and accusations of bad faith, or allegations of "unreasonableness" and "subversion". They become elaborate stage plays which attempt to attach as yet, uncommitted powers to one of the opposing systems."
================
"In some respects the intellectual has never been more in demand; that he makes such a relatively small contribution is not because he is rejected but because his function is misunderstood. He is sought after enthusiastically but for the wrong reasons and in pursuit of the wrong purposes.... All too often what the policymaker wants from the intellectual is not ideas but endorsement."
The Policymaker and the Intellectual, Reporter (March 5, 1959), 30, 33.
================
"Intellectuals are cynical, and cynics have never built a cathedral."
================
"Power is the ultimate aphrodisiac" (Drug)
================
"I think of myself as a(n) historian more than as a statesman. As a(n) historian, you have to be conscious of the fact that every civilization that has ever existed has ultimately collapsed. History is a tale of efforts that failed, of aspirations that weren't realized, of wishes that were fulfilled and then turned out to be different from what one expected.
So, as a historian, one has to live with a sense of the inevitability of tragedy. As a statesman, one has to act on the assumption that problems must be solved."
================
"Before the Freedom of Information Act, I used to say at meetings "The illegal we do immediately. The unconstitutional takes a little longer." … But since the Freedom of Information Act, I'm afraid to say things like that."
================
"The superpowers often behave like two heavily armed blind men feeling their way around a room, each believing himself in mortal peril from the other, whom he assumes to have perfect vision. Each side should know that frequently uncertainty, compromise, and incoherence are the essence of policymaking. Yet each tends to ascribe to the other a consistency, foresight, and coherence that its own experience belies. Of course, over time, even two armed blind men can do enormous damage to each other, not to speak of the room."
================
"Blessed are the people whose leaders can look destiny in the eye without flinching but also without attempting to play God."
================
"Empires have no interest in operating within an international system; they aspire to be the international system. (Hence) Empires have no need (or desire) for a balance of power."
================
"The study of history offers no manual of instructions that can be applied automatically; history teaches by analogy, shedding light on the likely consequences of comparable situations."
================
"Did Henry Kissinger say "it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal"?"
"It was the "then" clause of a conditional statement:
"Word should be gotten to Nixon that if Thieu meets the same fate as Diem, the word will go out to the nations of the world that it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal."
"Kissinger was not the first who said this words, but he repeated them."
"The author of this words was russian (Empire) general-major Aleksey Efimovich Vandam(Edrikhin), the intelligencer, the writer of strategic and geopolitical works. He was a participant in the Boer War on the opposite side to Britain Empire, after Russian-Soviet revolt he switched the side to German, not to Entente. He supported the politic course to an ally between Russian, German and France without Britain."
"The citaite is from the book "Наше положение" {~Our circumstance (situation)} chap XXI(real XXVI-wrong dating) p. 123"
"Наконец наступает очередь и Китая, который после своих разнообразных опытов с англичанами и американцами смело мог бы сказать теперь — «плохо иметь англосакса врагом, но не дай Бог иметь его другом!»."
"Finally, it is the turn of China, which, after its various experiences with the British and Americans , could safely say now — "it is bad to have an Anglo-Saxon as an enemy, but God forbid to have him as a friend!"."
"Kissinger could to (have) known the text, because it is a russian view point on anglosaxons geopolitics. And he made a wording little bit different - "God forbid" changed to "fatal" - in meaning destructive, deadly fate. Or, probably, Edrikhin also used quotes for this phrase, so, probably, the goes is elder then 1912."
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I do not believe that increasing the speed at which the WAR waged by Russia against Ukraine will cause fewer casualties or less destruction and devastation, Particularly if Russia were not to have been totally defeated. I believe that the present course of action has been most appropriate.
Rapid End to WAR & Attrition of Military Resources.
Many people are saying, "There has been too little progress" and "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed".
What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is what is demonstrated in just a few categories of hardware and equipment, as can be seen in the complete list on the "ORYX equipment losses in Ukraine" website:
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here.
Russia: Total recorded hardware and Tank losses 24 Feb 2022 to 9 Oct 2023
Total - 12455, of which: destroyed: 8594, damaged: 511, abandoned: 463, captured: 2887
Tanks - 2362, of which destroyed: 1542, damaged: 132, abandoned: 138, captured: 550
Ukraine: Total recorded hardware and Tank losses 24 Feb 2022 to 9 Oct 2023
Total - 4560, of which: destroyed: 3084, damaged: 349, abandoned: 169, captured: 958
Tanks - 660, of which destroyed: 432, damaged: 54, abandoned: 32, captured: 142
#** February 2022 Russia had nearly 3 times as many tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
-- Russia 3,400 tanks
-- Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
-- Russia 990 tanks
-- Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
-- Russia 2,200 Artillery/Heavy guns
-- Ukraine 1,900 Artillery/Heavy guns {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
-- Russia 773 Artillery/Heavy guns
-- Ukraine 1,100 Artillery/Heavy guns {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
-- Russia 1,100 MLRS
-- Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the numbers of MLRS are:
-- Russia 354 MLRS
-- Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of nearly 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware. The Russian advantage may well have been greater because of levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads and bridges that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
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Despite the costs of the Soviet-Afghan WAR, being for the Soviet Union not overwhelmingly large compared to other commitments, the war left a long legacy in the former Soviet Union and, following its collapse, for the Russian Federation. Along with financial, economic and personnel losses, it brought physical disabilities and widespread drug addiction throughout the USSR and subsequently, to the Russian Federation.
According to scholars Rafael Reuveny and Aseem Prakash, the war contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union by:
---- undermining the image of the Red Army as invincible,
---- undermining Soviet legitimacy, and by
---- creating new forms of political participation.
I can see the same patterns emerging in the Russian WAR against Ukraine.
The WAR that Russia is waging on Ukraine is going to have a far greater impact on the Russian Federation than the Afghanistan WAR had on its predecessor, the Soviet Union.
It may be possible, because of pride, arrogance, hubris, jealousy and even embarrassment, that the Russian Federation believe they have nothing more to lose and will keep fighting till they are beaten to a stand still - Total Defeat.
Afghanistan - Soviet Casualties and losses {in 10 years, 1979-98}
Soviet Union:
14,453–26,000
9,500 KIA in combat
4,000 died from wounds
1,000 died from disease and accidents
Ukraine - Russian Casualties and losses {in 18 months, 2022-23}
275,000 KIA
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Our old friend and Russian/pro-Russian propagandist #namur_iq6ih providing us with cherry-picked and jaundiced perspectives on so-called Russian achievements and the US political situation.
To read the 27 pages of the ISW report in PDF format, web-search:
"Jan 10 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment PDF_0.pdf"
ISW {Institute for the Study of War Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11, 2024
{Select unedited paragraphs from the ISW report. Items such as this comment in {brackets} have been added by me. Comments not in quotation marks are mine}
"Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated on January 11 that Russian forces have 462,000 personnel in Ukraine and that this represents the entire land component of the Russian military.[1] Skibitskyi stated that most Russian units in Ukraine are manned at between 92 and 95 percent of their intended end strength and that the size of the Russian grouping in Ukraine allows Russian forces to conduct rotations throughout the theater.[2] Skibitskyi stated that Russian forces withdraw units that are at 50 percent or less {in other words, from a 92% full strength, 42 out of 100 have died, are wounded and die or are withdrawn} of their intended end strength to rear areas and return them {units at 92% to 95% full strength} to the front following recovery and replenishment.[3] Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev stated on January 11 that the Russian military has successfully replenished Russian forces in Ukraine through an ongoing crypto-mobilization effort that generated over 500,000 new personnel in 2023.[4] "
If there has been a "crypto-mobilisation of 500,000 new personnel, Presumably that means that the figure of Russian losses of 370,000 casualties are reasonably accurate.
"ISW previously observed routine Russian struggles to conduct operational level rotations from the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 through Ukraine’s summer 2023 counteroffensive.[5] The apparent Russian ability to generate forces at a rate equal to Russian losses likely provides Russian forces the ability to replenish units that the Russian command has withdrawn from the line due to degradation and later return these replenished units to the front.[6] "
"Russian forces have not seized the battlefield initiative in Kherson Oblast, however, and appear to be degrading units and formations operating near the Ukrainian bridgehead on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River without making apparent efforts to conduct operational level rotations (although they do appear to conduct tactical-level rotations).[8] "
"Russian forces have conducted several regroupings during localized offensive operations in the Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Lyman, and Kupyansk directions since early October 2023, which likely provided Russian forces time to conduct the rotations Skibitskyi described.[9] "
"Russia’s ability to conduct operational level rotations will likely allow Russian forces to maintain the overall tempo of their localized offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the near term, but it is unclear if Russian forces will be able to conduct effective rotations in the long term or in the event of intensified Russian offensive efforts or a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive operation."
"Russian operational rotations in principle mitigate the degradation of attacking Russian forces that over time could cause Russian offensive efforts to culminate. Several other operational factors have previously contributed to the culmination of Russian offensive efforts in Ukraine, but constraints on available manpower and combat effective formations have often been a primary factor.[11] "
"The Russian force generation apparatus appears to be replenishing losses in Ukraine with poorly trained and relatively combat ineffective personnel whom the Russian command has deemed to be sufficient for routine attritional frontal assaults.[13] These assaults have yet to result in more than marginal Russian gains in Ukraine since early October 2023, and it is unlikely that Russian forces can continue them indefinitely in a way that will allow the Russians to convert tactical successes into operationally significant results."
Hence the KIA ratios of Russian 3 to as many as 10 KIA to Ukrainian 1 KIA.
"Successful Russian operational-level offensives in Ukraine will require the Russian command to commit relatively combat effective and well-equipped units and formations to offensive operations at scale, and it is unclear if replenishment through these Russian operational rotations will suffice to maintain these units’ combat capabilities. Overall Russian combat capabilities in Ukraine may still degrade over time, therefore, despite the rotations, hindering the Russian military’s ability to sustain several significant offensive operations at once."
"Key Takeaways: {All items in this section of the ISW Report}
-- The reported concentration of the Russian military’s entire combat-capable ground force in Ukraine and ongoing Russian force generation efforts appear to allow Russian forces to conduct routine operational level rotations in Ukraine.
-- Russia’s ability to conduct operational level rotations will likely allow Russian forces to maintain the overall tempo of their localized offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the near term, but it is unclear if Russian forces will be able to conduct effective rotations in the long term or in the event of intensified Russian offensive efforts or a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive operation.
-- Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian efforts to expand Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) have yet to fulfill operational requirements in Ukraine and that munitions shortages will continue to prompt Russia to source supplies from abroad.
-- Freezing temperatures in Ukraine are likely constraining operations along the front but will likely create more favorable terrain for mechanized maneuver warfare as the ground freezes in the coming weeks.
-- Latvia and Estonia announced new military aid packages to Ukraine on January 11.
-- Russia may be setting information conditions for future escalations against Latvia by threatening to punish Latvia for closing a likely base of Russian informational influence in Latvia.
-- European Commission (EC) Defense Industry Spokesperson Johanna Bernsel clarified on January 11 that European Union (EU) member states will be able to produce a million shells per year by spring 2024 but that the delivery of the shells to Ukraine will depend on individual member states.
-- The US Department of Defense (DoD) Office of the Inspector General published a report on January 11 that states that the failure to document certain aid provided to Ukraine in a timely manner is largely due to DoD limitations but that does not suggest that any of the material aid has been misappropriated.
-- Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk announced on January 11 that the Verkhovna Rada withdrew a draft law on mobilization for revisions after discussions between Ukrainian legislators and political and military leadership.
-- A Ukrainian official indicated that the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) may struggle to compensate for the loss of base infrastructure after allocating naval assets away from the BSF’s main base of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea.
-- Ukrainian and Russian forces continued positional engagements along the entire front.
-- Kremlin newswire TASS reported on January 10 that Russian forces will deploy additional aircraft and vessels and increase the production of hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon missiles in 2024.
-- The Belarusian Ministry of Emergency Situations stated on January 10 that it sponsored a trip for 35 Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine to Mogilev for the New Year holiday during which soldiers taught children “the basics of life safety” and how to behave in “extreme situations.”
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@grantcox4764 Your opinion.
Rapid End to WAR & Attrition of Military Resources.
Many people are saying, "There has been too little progress" and "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed".
What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is what is demonstrated in just a few categories of hardware and equipment, as can be seen on the "ORYX equipment losses in Ukraine" website:
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here.
Russia 🇷🇺: Total recorded hardware and Tank losses 24 Feb 2022 to 9 Oct 2023
Total - 12455, of which: destroyed: 8594, damaged: 511, abandoned: 463, captured: 2887
Tanks - 2362, of which destroyed: 1542, damaged: 132, abandoned: 138, captured: 550
Ukraine 🇺🇦: Total recorded hardware and Tank losses 24 Feb 2022 to 9 Oct 2023
Total - 4560, of which: destroyed: 3084, damaged: 349, abandoned: 169, captured: 958
Tanks - 660, of which destroyed: 432, damaged: 54, abandoned: 32, captured: 142
#** February 2022 Russia had nearly 3 times as many tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
-- Russia 3,400 tanks
-- Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
-- Russia 990 tanks
-- Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
-- Russia 2,200 Artillery/Heavy guns
-- Ukraine 1,900 Artillery/Heavy guns {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
-- Russia 773 Artillery/Heavy guns
-- Ukraine 1,100 Artillery/Heavy guns {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
-- Russia 1,100 MLRS
-- Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the numbers of MLRS are:
-- Russia 354 MLRS
-- Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of nearly 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware. That may well have been greater because of levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads and bridges that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
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This list {from the ORYX website} only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here.
Russia:
Total - 12191, of which: destroyed: 8368, damaged: 489, abandoned: 455, captured: 2879
Tanks - 2329, of which destroyed: 1515, damaged: 129, abandoned: 136, captured: 551
Ukraine:
Total - 4443, of which: destroyed: 2995, damaged: 344, abandoned: 152, captured: 952
Tanks - 648, of which destroyed: 422, damaged: 53, abandoned: 30, captured: 143
Russian: A few of the newer tanks destroyed, damaged, abandoned or captured
97 T-80BVM:
5 T-80BVM Obr. 2022:
8 Unknown T-80:
34 T-90A:
1 T-90AK:
41 T-90M:
273 Unknown tank:
Ukraine: A few of the newer taanks destroyed, damaged, abandoned or captured.
2 T-72AMT Zr.2022:
14 Unknown T-72:
52 T-80BV:
7 Leopard 2A4:
9 Leopard 2A6:
1 Challenger 2:
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@nicolamuller9767
Both your comments are acknowledged, agreed and fully supported. I doubt very much that tRump will be an intermediary. He is totally on the nose, and seen as a pootin apologist now, by all parties. I have written a long version and short version, in essay form, of the results for Europe if ruZZia succeeds in Ukraine. The short version follows.
Once ruZZia has Ukraine, then the smaller western Black Sea countries, Moldova (not a NATO Defensive Alliance country), Romania and Bulgaria, are at risk. Both Romania and Bulgaria are difficult to support from the West. Then, with the possible support for Russia, by Victor Orbán in Hungary and Robert Fico in Slovakia, if Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria are defeated, Poland and Czechia have ruZZia on their Eastern borders.
But, I do not believe ruZZia will move further West from Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. It is more likely, once they have created the Azov/Black/Sea Russian Lake, that they will then concentrate on the Suwałki Gap, between Poland and Lithuania. This would give ruZZia a clear route via Belarus to Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea.
ruZZia will then have divided the Baltic and Scandinavian countries from the Southern European countries. Next Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
Though I do not believe all, or necessarily, part of this will happen, it has to be considered a possibility.
Ukraine is not going to capitulate. While I am aware of the "sunk cost fallacy", Ukraine is aware that their whole population will be serfs and vassals and many more will die, if ruZZia succeeds. ruZZia has proved that in so many ways, from Bucha to Donetsk and Odesa. Consequently, despite what anyone from the other side of the Atlantic says, the suffering will be far greater, and more Ukrainian people will die, if the Ukrainians capitulate, than if they continue to fight for and defend their land and people.
The Ukrainians are fully aware of that scenario. If the Free World will not support them now, what chance is there that the Free World will care for Ukrainians under the ruZZian boot.
I believe that the Ukrainians will continue to fight and defend their internationally recognized territory. They have much to gain and little to lose. If they are totally defeated, they will have lost no more than they will by continuing to defend their land. And they are recognized to have fought courageously and valiantly. That is how those who have died will be remembered if they are victorious or if they are defeated. But the Ukrainians will not capitulate and neither will they accept being extorted for their lives and country, as tRumpf evidently wishes to do.
Apologies for the length of my comment. But my utmost appreciation if you have read it through.
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Once ruZZia has Ukraine, then the smaller western Black Sea countries, Moldova (not a NATO Alliance country), Romania and Bulgaria, are at risk. Both Romania and Bulgaria are difficult to support from the West. Then, with the support of Victor Orbán in Hungary and Robert Fico in Slovakia, Poland and Czechia have ruZZia on their Eastern borders.
But, I do not believe ruZZia will move further West from Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. It is more likely, once they have created the Russian Azov/Black Sea Lake, that they will then concentrate on the Suwałki Gap, between Poland and Lithuania. This would give ruZZia a clear route via Belarus to Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea. ruZZia will then have divided the Baltic and Scandinavian countries from the Southern European countries. Next Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
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@HepCatJack
Likewise, another copy of the Hitler brand in the use of the term
"The Afrika Korps" or German Africa Corps (German: Deutsches Afrikakorps, pronounced [ˈdɔʏtʃəs ˈʔaːfʁikaˌkoːɐ̯] ⓘ}; DAK) was the German expeditionary force in Africa during the North African campaign of World War II."
"First sent as a holding force to shore up the Italian defense of its African colonies, the formation fought on in Africa, under various appellations, from March 1941 until its surrender in May 1943. The unit's best known commander was Field Marshal Erwin Rommel."
There may be more relevance to the branding than just the name
"The Afrika Korps was an expeditionary combat force of the German army that fought in North Africa from February 1941 until May 1943. Adolf Hitler ordered the establishment of a German expeditionary force in North Africa in January 1941, following Italian defeats in Tobruk and Benghazi, at the request of the Italians, who had refused an early German offer for military assistance.
"Originally known as Befehlshaber der deutschen Truppen in Libyen (Commander of the German Troops in Libya), from 21 February 1941 the unit was called the Deutsche Afrika-Korps.
"Hitler formed the Korps for strategic reasons; he had planned a campaign against Greece and feared the loss of the eastern Mediterranean and a severe weakening of his Axis ally. In addition, the occupation of North Africa was a major precondition for German supremacy in the Near and Middle East as envisaged in Hitler's long-range plans."
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Caesar Kunikov (BDK-64) was a Project 775 large landing ship (Bol'shoy Desantnyy Korabl) of the Russian Navy that was sunk by the Ukrainian GUR
14 February 2024.
Naval Ships and Submarines (29, of which: destroyed: 15, // damaged: 7, // to be identified: 7)
-- 1 Project 1164 Slava-class guided missile cruiser: (1, Moskva, sunk)
✅>> "Moskva"
-- 1 Project 22800 Karakurt-class corvette: (1, B-802 'Askold', destroyed)
✅>> "Askold"
-- 1 Project 636.3 Improved Kilo-class submarine: (1, B-237 'Rostov-na-Donu', damaged beyond economical repair)
✅>> "Rostov-na-Donu"
-- 5 Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged)
-- 1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat: (1, destroyed)
-- 1 Project 640 small patrol boat: (1, destroyed)
-- 1 Project 1171 Tapir-class landing ship: (1, BDK-65 'Saratov', destroyed)
✅>> "Saratov"
-- 5 Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship: (1, 'Minsk', damaged beyond economical repair) (2, 'Novocherkassk', destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, 'Olenegorsky Gornyak', damaged)
✅>> "Minsk"
✅>> "Novocherkassk"
✅>> "Olenegorsky Gornyak"
✅>> "Caesar Kunikov"
-- 2 Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft: (1, destroyed) (1, damaged)
-- 1 Project 1176 Ondatra-class landing craft: (1, damaged)
-- 1 Project 22870 rescue tug: (1, SB-739 V'asily Bekh', destroyed)
✅>> "V'asily Bekh' "
-- 1 Project 266M Natya-class minesweeper: (1, damaged)
✅>> "Ivan Golubets"
-- 1 Project 12411 Tarantul-III-class corvette: (1, destroyed)
✅>> "Ivanovets"
More than 20% of Russia's reinforced and much vaunted Black Sea fleet destroyed.
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Russia's revanchist ideas about re-establishing the USSR, or the same by any other name, clearly indicate that Putin and the Russian political, military and media establishment would attack NATO countries. It would be necessary to do so in order to achieve the stated goals and objectives of Putin and the Russian establishment.
Russia is highly unlikely to display maps of its future plans to invade any country in advance. With regard to Russia's invasion and WAR, waged against Ukraine, Russia even stated, right up to the day, that there was no reason to invade Ukraine {a second time, following the 2014 invasion} and that Russia would not do so. Yet that is exactly what Russia did, with less that 24 hours notice.
In the following treatise, I have referred to the Google "Map Of Europe."
The countries to the East of Russia are not the only ones at imminent risk of attack by Russian military forces, but also the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and Poland, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. Given the current political situation in Hungary and Slovakia, either or both of those countries could possibly capitulate following successful attacks, by the Russians, on Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria.
It is not a matter of what Russia is ABLE to do. It is really a question as to whether Russia, delusionally {in the strict sense of the word, to my way of thinking}, or in spite of Russia's apparent ignorance of their real and inadequate military capacity against that of the NATO Defensive Alliance {32 countries} and other supporting countries {about 30 at present}, believe that they can achieve their stated goals and objectives of re-instituting the former USSR, by that or any other name. And we know that the intended "revanchism" has been stated by Putin and others in Russia, directly and implicitly.
To accomplish Russia's goals and objectives, Russia would have to attack NATO Defensive Alliance member countries. First, Moldova, {not an Alliance member country}, then connecting with Transnistria (1), on the long {aprox 200 km} North-Eastern border between Ukraine and Moldova, where ~500 or more {OGRF} (2) Russian military personnel are said to be stationed. Then Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO Alliance member countries, but difficult to support from the West because of the Carpathian Mountains and, if they chose to support Russia, Hungary and Slovakia to the North-West.
This portion of the {possible} Russian plan would have to be completed by surprise and with guile, subterfuge and speed, which we know to be trade-marks of the Russian style of operation. At this stage, with the Eastern portions of Ukraine illegally occupied and controlled by the Russians; Georgia, on the Eastern side of the Black Sea, effectively hobbled; Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria secured; the only other country with a Black Sea coastline is Turkey. The question would then arise as to how much soft economic, or hard military pressure Russia would have to impose to make Turkey compliant to Russia's wishes and intentions. At which time, the Azov and Black Seas become, effectively, a Russian Azov/Black Sea lake.
"NATO Defensive Alliance, Article 5. The key section of the NATO Defensive Alliance Treaty is Article 5. Its commitment clause defines the "casus foederis". It commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state, in the areas defined by Article 6, to be an armed attack against them all."
The Russians, having accomplished their goal of control of the Black Sea, will have effectively covered the Southern flank of any possible attack against them as they proceed East via the Suwalki Gap, through Belarus. Though, by this time, the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries will have been fully mobilised, under NATO Article 5, as a result of Russian attacks on Romania and Bulgaria. Troops from NATO member countries would then be free to cross and operate within the Polish and Ukrainian borders {with the permission and approval of each country} against the Russians. It is not surprising that Poland has strengthened their defenses on their Northern and Eastern borders.
The Suwalki Gap traverses the Northern portion of the Polish border, which is also adjacent to the Lithuanian border. It may be considered and has been referred to as the "THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE ON EARTH. In a showdown between Russia and NATO, the 'Suwałki Gap' would likely be the first point of contact. By Matthew Karnitschnig in Druskininkai, Lithuania".
The Russians would then be likely to mount an assault on the 100 km {~60 mile} Suwalki Gap, between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. The Russians have conventional and, it is generally believed, nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad. Russia is also understood to have moved nuclear weapons into Belarus. With the Suwalki Gap secured, Russia will have successfully divided the Southern European countries from the Northern Baltic and Scandinavian countries. Russia will also have carved a direct route from Russia to the Baltic Sea.
Then the very small countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. In Russia's attempts to accomplish these goals and objectives, and irrespective of their success or failure, Russia could be the cause of hundreds of thousands {possibly millions} of deaths of civilians and military personnel and massive levels of destruction. All of which we have already seen, as a result of Russian military actions in Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and other countries. However, future outcomes of Russia's aggression could be on a very much larger scale, without any compunction or moral scruple of any sort on Russia's part.
Russia's claim is, "The only rule of WAR is the outcome", which is a direct counter to, and repudiation of all the international agreements to which Russia is signatory. But, we have already seen, on numerous occasions, that Russia has no regard for Agreements, Memoranda and Treaties when they do not match or coincide with Russia's immediate needs or wishes.
The issue is not whether Russia can subjugate, subordinate and dominate other countries, but instead, the death and destruction that Russia will cause in attempting to achieve those goals and objectives. All the death and destruction in Ukraine is intended to intimidate, not only Ukrainians, but also the populations in Western Europe. This is, presumably, in an effort to "encourage" or "persuade" Europeans to sacrifice Ukraine {and possibly other smaller countries} with the intention of saving themselves from a similar fate to that imposed by the Russians on Ukraine. However, such a sacrifice will not save Western Europeans, but rather, will just postpone the inevitable future attacks by Russia. Particularly as Russia gets stronger with each conquest.
We have also seen that Russia seems oblivious to the difference between the combined resources of the NATO Defensive Alliance of 32 countries, and the 30 additional countries assisting and supporting Ukraine, with respect to Russia's own resources as well as other resources available to Russia from Iran, North Korea, possibly China and any other countries that may support Russia.
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