Comments by "PNH 6000" (@PNH-sf4jz) on "Jake Broe"
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"the ones flying -Sovier- Soviet flags on their John Deere tractors."
It would seem that this is another form of insurrectionist activity, fomented by Russia, as was done in 2013-14 in Crimea and the Donbas region, prior to Russia's military actions against Ukraine, commenced in 2014.
A search of the influence of the Russian, Igor Girkin/Strelkov will provide information about the influence of the Russian military and the GRU/FSB in the Eastern regions of Ukraine.
I believe that the current "protests and blockades" are extremely unlikely to be a reflection of popular sentiment in Poland. However, they are having the desired effect, from the Russian perspective, of creating division, disharmony and antagonism between countries such as Poland and Ukraine as well as in and between other countries. All according to the usual and well known Russian "modus operandi".
{"The term "modus operandi" is a Latin term that describes an individual or group's habitual way of operating, which represents a discernible pattern. A modus operandi (commonly abbreviated as "M.O.") is mainly used to discuss criminal behavior and is often used by professionals to prevent future crimes."}
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@tvp8501 The Southern US border is not insecure, but porous. The issue is not security of the border, because there is no-one and no country attempting to alter the location of the border, as is occurring in Ukraine.
The question to be addressed is the degree of porosity, between totally open, O% restriction, to 100% restriction, implying "absolutely no flow". I do not believe that the Republicans calling for "border security", even know precisely what they want, or the level of restriction. I have seen absolutely no indication that those specific Republicans, such as Greene, Gaetz and even Johnson, have actually and clearly defined anything other than shouting "Border Security" with no clarity about their expectations.
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@ciberzombiegaming8207 Your position is really understandable. Unfortunately, I am inclined to think that concerns about Russia's wish to recover more of the previously held territories and countries, if it is successful in Ukraine, are realistic. Therefore I can also understand the desire of people in Lithuania and other countries, in similar situations, to wish to support Ukraine. I believe that the Ukrainian people are really doing a mighty job, not only for themselves, but also for others. With Best Wishes to the Ukrainians with a huge salute.
Jūsų pozicija yra tikrai suprantama. Deja, aš linkęs galvoti, kad susirūpinimas dėl Rusijos noro susigrąžinti anksčiau laikomas teritorijas ir šalis, jei pasisekė Ukrainoje, yra realūs. Todėl aš taip pat galiu suprasti Lietuvos ir kitų šalių žmonių norą, panašiomis situacijomis, norėdamas palaikyti Ukrainą. Manau, kad Ukrainos žmonės iš tikrųjų dirba galingą darbą ne tik sau, bet ir kitiems. Su geriausiais linkėjimais ukrainiečiams su didžiuliu sveikinimu.
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Right from the start of the WAR waged by Russia against Ukraine, first in 2014 and in the full-scale 2nd offensive by Russia, the Ukrainians have stood their ground against overwhelming odds. Gradually, as the Ukrainians demonstrated their determination, courage and capacity to use sound tactics, the Ukrainians have been offered ever increasing military and humanitarian support by more than 60 countries of the Free World. Some say that support has been too slow. I disagree. Had massive support been offered, the WAR waged by Russia would likely have been much "hotter" with a greater loss of life of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel and even more devastation and destruction.
There are two main reasons for the Ukrainians not advancing more rapidly. They are:
--- that the attrition of the Russian weapons and resources is imperative to allow for the least possible number of Ukrainian casualties in the advance
--- to not cause a disproportionate escalation that may otherwise initiate a greater response by the Russians. This has been a main consideration of Ukraine and their supporters. Again, with the intention of costing fewer lives of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel and less destruction of infrastructure and property than may otherwise have been precipitated. This is despite the obvious Russian attempts to take as many lives and cause as much physical damage and destruction as they can.
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. From ORYX website.
Russia: Total hardware and equipment losses and Tanks 24 Feb 2022 to 3 Oct 2023
Total - 12311, of which: destroyed: 8474, damaged: 499, abandoned: 457, captured: 2882
Tanks - 2329, of which destroyed: 1518, damaged: 129, abandoned: 134, captured: 550
Ukraine: Total hardware and equipment losses and Tanks 24 Feb 2022 to 3 Oct 2023
Total - 4510, of which: destroyed: 3045, damaged: 345, abandoned: 162, captured: 958
Tanks - 656, of which destroyed: 429, damaged: 53, abandoned: 32, captured: 142
Had Ukraine undertaken a full-on offensive in February-March 2022, the Russians would have had a better than 3:1 advantage in hardware, equipment and personnel. Neither would the Ukrainians, by their courage, determination and tactics, have shown that they were serious and earned the respect, support and assistance that has been offered to date by more that 60 countries. Consequently, the Russian invasion and WAR may well have been successful if a full-scale response had been mounted by the Ukrainians. Much as it is desired that bad events end quickly, speed is not always advantageous or beneficial.
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine, Absolute Victory 🇺🇦
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Absolutely agreed and supported. It is certainly unusual to be tested quite so strongly and severely, particularly by people whom we would otherwise believe "to be our own {kith and kin}". However, with calm deliberation and firm action, I believe that the allied countries will get through this issue.
I make my comment inclusive, because I believe that all of our Free World countries are going through a similar process. In the US, it is more public and the consequences are more dire. However, all of us need to reflect on what is happening and why and take notice of what is happening in our own countries.
These events are not static and any 'solutions' are not permanent. We must stay alert, responsive to, and ever prepared for such events in our communities, cities, and countries, and even at the level of our personal relationships.
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@richardarriaga6271
Had to look up the reference, not having heard it before, in order to understand your appropriate comment.
"What does it mean to go back to Monke?
This is something known as Anarcho-primitivism , a political ideology that advocates de-industrialisation, abandoning all established social structures, and returning to a more "primitive" way of life. In other words,“return to monke”."
What does it mean to go back to Monke?
This is something known as Anarcho-primitivism , a political ideology that advocates de-industrialisation, abandoning all established social structures, and returning to a more "primitive" way of life. In other words,“return to monke”.
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@andresilvasophisma
It is interesting, in the videos shown on the The Enforcer, that nothing is clear in those videos, which were taken at night. Yet people simply believe what the speaker, very loudly and animatedly claims to describe and own as "their own discovery and reality".
It is apparent that the A-50 crew had released flares and presumably "chaff" long before any missile was fired, or jet aircraft took off from near the location from which the video was taken. Therefore the A-50 aircraft crew were apparently aware that a missile, targeting them, was in flight long before there was any action, on the ground, from near where the video was taken.
The assumption may be that the missile or afterburners of a jet aircraft could have accounted for the bright light on the lower right side of the video. Either of these could have been a response by ground air defense crews or a jet plane, to an urgent request from the A-50 crew to support them with a much more agile jet aircraft {Su-34/35}, acting as a decoy, to take the heat off the A-50. Or to fire missiles intended to intercept what the A-50 aircrew already knew was in the air.
Hence, I would be more inclined to accept the Ukrainian claim to have hit the A-50, even though it is still possible, though unlikely, that the Russians, again, shot another of their planes down. It would hardly be reassuring to Russian pilots and crew members to know that they were just as likely to be shot down by their own air-defense, or even their own planes, as they were to be shot down by the Ukrainians.
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Agreed.
Threat to oil and gas supplies,
threat of use of missiles fitted with nuclear war-heads,
threats to Finland and Sweden regarding their accession to NATO,
threats against Lithuania regarding their imposition of EU sanctions on goods to Kaliningrad,
threats against some identified and other unspecified "unfriendly countries".
These threats sound very much like the type of behaviour in which school bullies indulge. Those same bullies likewise, when they fear the odds are against them attempt to hide behind the protection of adults, often by lying about their own behaviour, and maliciously accusing the victims of their attacks, as though the victims were the perpetrators.
Big, bad, bold, tough Russia, wanting to hide behind the petti-coats of Ukraine for their protection. Absolutely pathetic.
And to achieve their goal, they have no qualms about the murder and destruction that they cause.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY TO UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Sometimes, I get so caught up with the events of the moment, the latest developments, the progress or otherwise of the day to day movements of this WAR, that it is easy to lose sight of the beginning. The false assertions of the pro-RuZZian bots, trolls, shills, sympathisers and supporters just leave those lingering, nagging questions --- "Are they right or wrong or somewhere in between ?" I have compiled these thoughts, information and references about 2013/2014, that may help dispell some, if not all of those doubts.
==== The Maidan Uprising ====
In the protests that occurred in Ukraine during November 2013, the protesters were responding to:-
: The sudden decision, by then President Yanukovych, not to sign a political association and free trade agreement with the European Union (EU), instead, choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union. In other words, he was acting in a manner that was inconsistent with the intent and desire of the democratically elected government of Ukraine, and more consistent with the behaviour and actions of the Belarusian, Putin's puppet "leader", Lukashenko.
: In February of that year (2013), the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) had overwhelmingly approved finalizing the agreement with the EU.[26]
: Protesters opposed, and were attempting to address, what they saw as widespread
-- government corruption
-- abuse of power
-- the influence of oligarchs
-- police brutality
-- violation of human rights in Ukraine.
All the characteristics and occurrences for which Ukraine is still being constantly criticised by others, particularly pro-RuZZian bots, shills, trolls, supporters and sympathisers. Presumably, such people are among those who believe that Ukraine should be cleansed and purified by the overlordship of RuZZia. The RuZZians need to address the issues in their own camp, before throwing rocks at others.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_of_Dignity
---- "In November 2013, a wave of large-scale protests (known as Euromaidan) erupted in response to President Yanukovych's sudden decision not to sign a political association and free trade agreement with the European Union (EU), instead choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union.
"In February of that year, the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) had overwhelmingly approved finalizing the agreement with the EU.[26] Russia had put pressure on Ukraine to reject it.[27]
"These protests continued for months; their scope widened, with calls for the resignation of Yanukovych and the Azarov Government.[28] Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption and abuse of power, the influence of oligarchs, police brutality, and violation of human rights in Ukraine.[29][30] Repressive anti-protest laws fuelled further anger.[29] A large, barricaded protest camp occupied Independence Square in central Kyiv throughout the 'Maidan Uprising'.
" The comments that I offer, I like to finish with this banner as a symbol of my support.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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This is diplomacy, Russian style.
1st Chechen War. Battle of Grozny (1994 to 1996)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1994%E2%80%931995)
"During the First Chechen War, Grozny was the site of an intense battle lasting from December 1994 to February 1995 and ultimately ending with the capture of the city by the Russian military. Intense fighting and carpet bombing carried out by the Russian Air Force destroyed much of the city. Thousands of combatants on both sides died in the fighting, alongside civilians, many of whom were reportedly ethnic Russians; unclaimed bodies were later collected and buried in mass graves on the city outskirts. The main federal military base in Chechnya was located in the area of Grozny air base.[citation needed]"
"Chechen guerrilla units operating from nearby mountains managed to harass and demoralize the Russian Army by means of guerilla tactics and raids, such as the attack on Grozny in March 1996, which added to political and public pressure for a withdrawal of Russian troops. In August 1996, a raiding force of 1,500 to 3,000 militants recaptured the city in a surprise attack. They surrounded and routed its entire garrison of 10,000 MVD troops, while fighting off the Russian Army units from the Khankala base. The battle ended with a final ceasefire and Grozny was once again in the hands of Chechen separatists. The name was changed to Djohar in 1997 by the President of the separatist Ichkeria republic, Aslan Maskhadov. By this time most of the remaining Russian minority had fled.[46] "
2nd Chechen War. Battle of Grozny (1999–2000)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1999%E2%80%932000)
"The 1999–2000 battle of Grozny was the siege and assault of the Chechen capital Grozny by Russian forces, lasting from late 1999 to early 2000. The siege and fighting left the capital devastated. In 2003, the United Nations called Grozny the most destroyed city on Earth.[10] Between 5,000[8] and 8,000 civilians[9] were killed during the siege, making it the bloodiest episode of the Second Chechen War."
The following details give some insight into the way that RuZZians wage WAR against other countries and states. There is definitely an identifiable trend in their methods; mainly murder and destruction. It appears to be the way that RuZZians do diplomacy.
List of wars involving Russia since dissolution of USSR in 1991
1991–1993 Georgian Civil War
1992 Transnistria War
1992 East Prigorodny Conflict
North Ossetia-Alania
1992–1997 Tajikistani Civil War
1993 Russian spillover into Azerbaijan
1994–1996 First Chechen War
1999 War of Dagestan
1999–2009 Second Chechen War
2008 Russo-Georgian War
2009–2017 Insurgency in the North Caucasus
2014–present Russo-Ukrainian War
2015–present Russian military intervention in the Syrian Civil War
2018–present Central African Republic Civil War
https://www.britannica.com/event/Soviet-invasion-of-Afghanistan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War
"The Soviet–Afghan War (1979–1989) was a conflict wherein insurgent groups known collectively as the Mujahideen, as well as smaller Maoist groups, fought a nine-year guerrilla war against the military occupation of the Soviet Union and their satellite state, the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (DRA), throughout the 1980s, mostly in the Afghan countryside.
"The Mujahideen were variously backed primarily by the United States, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, and the United Kingdom; the conflict was a Cold War-era proxy war. Between 562,000[47] and 2,000,000 Afghans were killed and millions more fled the country as refugees,[51][52][48][49] mostly to Pakistan and Iran. Between 6.5%–11.5% of Afghanistan's 1979 population of 13.5 millions is estimated to have perished in the conflict. The war caused grave destruction in Afghanistan, and it has also been cited by scholars as a contributing factor to the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.[53][54] "
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Agreed and Supported. It is amazing how many of the supporters and sympathisers of the RuZZian regime twist that story around to suit their own purposes. When the USSR became the Russian Federation, I always thought that it was not a change of political perspectives, but rather a case of "the emperor changing clothes."
RuZZia refers to the RuZZian Nazi-Fascist regime that appears to be acting against the interests of their own population and those of other countries, particularly Ukraine at the present time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism
Fascism is a far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement,[1][2][3] characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for the perceived good of the nation and race, and strong regimentation of society and the economy.[2][3]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazism
Nazism is a form of fascism,[2][3][4][5] with disdain for liberal democracy and the parliamentary system. It incorporates fervent antisemitism, anti-communism, scientific racism, and the use of eugenics into its creed. Its extreme nationalism originated in pan-Germanism and the ethno-nationalist neopagan Völkisch movement which had been a prominent aspect of German nationalism since the late 19th century, and it was strongly influenced by the Freikorps paramilitary groups that emerged after Germany's defeat in World War I, from which came the party's underlying "cult of violence".[6]
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Fascism is a far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement,[1][2][3] characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for the perceived good of the nation and race, and strong regimentation of society and the economy.[2][3]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism
Nazism is a form of fascism,[2][3][4][5] with disdain for liberal democracy and the parliamentary system. It incorporates fervent antisemitism, anti-communism, scientific racism, and the use of eugenics into its creed. Its extreme nationalism originated in pan-Germanism and the ethno-nationalist neopagan Völkisch movement which had been a prominent aspect of German nationalism since the late 19th century, and it was strongly influenced by the Freikorps paramilitary groups that emerged after Germany's defeat in World War I, from which came the party's underlying "cult of violence".[6]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazism
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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US Lt Col Daniel Davis was interviewed by Cyrus Janssen, a well known apologist for the Russian position. Consequently, I would consider each of their positions worth noting but no worth basing my opinion on.
Possibly in the same category as Douglas MacGregor, Scott Ritter, Larry Johnson, Patrick Lancaster, Graham Phillips, Eva Bartlett, Anne-Laure Bonnel , Sonja van den Ende , Adrien Bocquet , Christelle Néant , Alina Lipp, The Duran with Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris, Redacted with Natali and Clayton Morris and others.
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Yes it seems like a rocky and unstable boat. Certainly, based on previous performance and the snake's usual desire and capacity to slither through any perceived loopholes that he can engineer, I don't like the chances of Russia's compliance. However, I would like to see Turkey step up to the plate and honour their commitment. Here's hoping.
Really, I am more concerned about weapons being slipped onto ships, by pro-Russian operatives, before they leave Ukrainian ports, with the aim of setting the Ukranians up for the invalid and untrue accusation of weapons smuggling, for sale on the black market. Just another way the Russians could manage, in their usual style, to muddy the waters a bit more.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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@moffig1
Rapid End to WAR & Attrition of Military Resources.
Many people are saying, "There has been too little progress" and "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed".
What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is what is demonstrated in just a few categories of hardware and equipment, as can be seen on the "ORYX equipment losses in Ukraine" website:
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here.
Russia: Total recorded hardware and Tank losses 24 Feb 2022 to 20 Oct 2023
Total - 12656, of which: destroyed: 8760, damaged: 524, abandoned: 477, captured: 2895
Tanks - 2404, of which destroyed: 1571, damaged: 137, abandoned: 146, captured: 550
Ukraine: Total recorded hardware and Tank losses 24 Feb 2022 to 20 Oct 2023
Total - 4604, of which: destroyed: 3125, damaged: 349, abandoned: 172, captured: 960
Tanks - 668, of which destroyed: 439, damaged: 54, abandoned: 33, captured: 142
#** February 2022 Russia had nearly 3 times as many tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
-- Russia 3,400 tanks
-- Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
-- Russia 990 tanks
-- Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
-- Russia 2,200 Artillery/Heavy guns
-- Ukraine 1,900 Artillery/Heavy guns {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
-- Russia 773 Artillery/Heavy guns
-- Ukraine 1,100 Artillery/Heavy guns {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
-- Russia 1,100 MLRS
-- Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the numbers of MLRS are:
-- Russia 354 MLRS
-- Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of nearly 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware. That may well have been greater because of Russian levels of preparedness, training of military personnel on the various platforms, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads and bridges that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
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@cadennorris960 During all ages and among all peoples {except in Edgar Allan Poe's stories} people have transmitted information about recent and past events to each other, their children and grand-children. Often those stories were intended to be educational and cautionary. The stories often contained elements that were intended to engender, among other sensations, the feelings of happiness, sadness, enthusiasm and fear. Because those sensations are often cautionary, and do not have attached to them any concept of distance or proximity, it is sometimes difficult to disassociate from the more negative feelings, even when there appears to be no immediate threat.
However, during the cold war of the 1960's and 70's, there was an immediate and ever present threat; that being the possibility of nuclear war that could easily have engulfed the whole world, if not by its direct effects, even by the indirect effects of blanketed sunlight.
Since the end of the so-called cold war, 12 March 1947 – 26 December 1991, and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, that existential threat has diminished, despite the declared existence of ICBMs with ranges up to 18,000 km. Our World community seemed to be progressing peacefully.
The WAR in Ukraine has, again, raised the threat of nuclear missiles being used as a form of offense. Any where in Europe is within the range of missiles from Russia. And in the USA, Seattle is about 7,200km from Vladivostok and Atlanta is about 10,000 km.
As such, it is reasonable for people to be concerned about the real possibilities and the existential threat(s). I do not believe that it is realistic to simply tell people to turn off or look away. Far better to inform ourselves and face the possibilities and realistically consider probabilities.
Certainly, we should appreciate the fact that the war is not happening in our "immediate backyard", but we also need to consider what assistance, if any can be offered to those people for whom the WAR is real and present. If we do not feel anything, we cannot empathise with others whose positions are worse than our own. Furthermore, without feelings, it is unlikely that we will be able to prepare for our own safety if or when the need arises.
{An existential threat is a threat to a people's existence or survival on an individual level or a wider community, national or World-wide perspective}
As of March 2022, Russia still fields 46 SS-18 missiles, each with 10 warheads, on top of its other deployed ICBMs, an estimated 320 in all, according to the Arms Control Association.
Of the stockpiled warheads, the U.S. stated in its March 2019 New START declaration that 1,365 were deployed on 656 ICBMs, SLBMs, and strategic bombers.
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It is to be hoped that neither Ukraine, Poland nor any other country will have to suffer the outcome of Putin's temper tantrums and the ill-conceived imposition of the will of the Russian political and military establishment and their military forces, by any future attacks made by Russia's military forces, on any other country.
It is amazing that Big, Bad, Bold, Tough Russia led by the Big, Bad, Bold, Tough leader Poo-tin is so afraid of the Big, Bad Wolf which is the mutually defensive alliance called NATO. Russia thinks that it has to hide behind the petti-coats and hang on to the apron-strings of its little sister, Ukraine, as a "buffer-zone".
All this despite knowing that a land mass the size of Ukraine is no longer going to be a distance barrier to modern weapons fired to, or from Russia.
How Absolutely Pathetic???
And with all the lies, broken agreements and game playing. How Absolutely Farcical????
It would be reason for laughter if the whole situation were not so serious.
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It looks as though the Russian propagandists are trying to act as "concerned friends", in the comments, with their concessions followed by commiserations. They are becoming like the "Trojan Horse", creeping in with subtle gestures and overtures, as if with goodwill, but really with under-LYING malevolence and guile.
Seeding positive minds and hearts with self-doubt, anxiety and regret. Please do not be fooled. If Putin still thinks that "everything is going according to plan", it is definitely not going to plan for him and the rest of the political and military establishment of Russia. However, for ukraine and the 54 countries assisting and supporting Ukraine, there is definitely a sound and solid plan, and it is unfolding with the least loss of Ukrainian lives possible.
Needless to say, the massive majority of us, as observers, are not privy to, or aware of the finer details of the plan, but it is unfolding appropriately.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Hi Tim, I think that you may have intended saying "tactical" nukes. We can all be worried about negative possibilities, but where does that take us, or get us. I do not like the expression because it normally seems dismissive, but "it will either happen or it will not". I believe that the question is "do we capitulate or prepare". If we decide not to capitulate or surrender, the other option is to go about our business and take what time is needed to prepare. It is absolutely no good worrying if we do not know what it is about which we are worried.
In order to consider options, we first need to know what it is that we are dealing with. The following extract is from the website:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon
---- "A tactical nuclear weapon (TNW) or non-strategic nuclear weapon (NSNW)[1] is a nuclear weapon which is designed to be used on a battlefield in military situations, mostly with friendly forces in proximity and perhaps even on contested friendly territory. Generally smaller in explosive power, they are defined in contrast to strategic nuclear weapons, which are designed mostly to be targeted at the enemy interior away from the war front against military bases, cities, towns, arms industries, and other hardened or larger-area targets to damage the enemy's ability to wage war.
---- "Tactical nuclear weapons include gravity bombs, short-range missiles, artillery shells, land mines, depth charges, and torpedoes which are equipped with nuclear warheads. Also in this category are nuclear armed ground-based or shipborne surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and air-to-air missiles."
If we happen to be at the impact end of a conventional weapon, or a nuclear weapon, the effect is probably going to be much the same. We die. What we need to do prior to the anticipated possibility of a conventional or nuclear strike is the same thing, that is to prepare. However, If we are no-where near any possible target, we should simply be prepared to support any civilians or military personnel who may be effected by such a strike.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Agreed. For both the EU and NATO, there is a process, as we have seen with regard to Finland and Sweden. Ukraine has a slightly longer road to travel to achieve those goals. At the same time, I share and support your wish for Ukraine, ultimately, to join NATO and the EU, should they so desire. With regard to any offers previously made with regard to Ukraine not joining NATO {March 2022}, because they were either declined or ignored by Moscow, I would consider them null and void.
The future regarding Moscow and Russia is, at the present time, somewhat blurred. I would think that "white-boarding" options for the future may include some form of rapprochment with the "west" that could be considered. If the Russian economy is truly destabilised, this may be of some appeal to the Kremlin. Conditional of course. Russia may attempt to remain as a Federation, or allow the different political, cultural and ethnic groups to divide into separate independent nations. Presumably, there are many more options. A lot also depends on the response of other nations, in particular, that of China, to the outcomes of the WAR.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Any proposal that sanctions be lifted as part of a peace deal involving the continuation of the occupation of Ukranian territory by Russia, which would only be a "win" for Russia, no-one else, particularly Ukrainians, for whom such an agreement would constitute a huge "loss" and be infruriatingly insulting to Ukranians.
{if the terms "win" and "loss" are even relevant in such a situation}.
Concessions to Russia's advantage will only give them reason to believe that whatever method they have applied has worked and will work again in the future.
Ukraine is being supported because they have a right to their own land, the borders of which have been co-agreed to by Russia, in its present political form. Not a previous version of Russia. Russia has attempoted to attack the capital city of Ulkraine, Kyiv. Russia has aerial bombed and artillery bombarded the cities of the Donbas and others throughout the east and west, north and south of Ukraine. The Russians have killed thousands of civilians and made the survivors homeless and destitute. They have driven millions into the situation of being refugees. They have induced or co-erced thousands to be transported to Russia, some voluntarily, but many are believed to have been involuntarily shipped to Russia. All of this with the cost of thousand of lives of military personnel on both sides, in addition to immense hardware losses. All on the pretext of "supporting and protecting those poor Russian speaking members of the population."
What a farce? What a pack of lies? What is the value of any agreement with Russia, that is just as liable to be "torn up" and disregarded, as Russia has done in the not so distant past. And that, on one pretext or another, possibly a week later, or sooner?
The Ukrainians appear to me to have a clear sense of sovereignty and identity. The correlation between the intentions and actions of the upper echelons of the Russian political and military establishment and those of Hitler and the Nazi party is apt
I believe that the Ukrainian separatist movement was initiated, fomented and actively supported by Russian regular army forces from as early as 2013, possibly before. That method fits right into the way that Russia has created similar situations in Chechnya, Georgia, Transnistria, Ukraine and others. You may care to look at the following reference:
List of wars involving Russia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia
If you look at the circumstances preceding many of these wars, the early events are similar to what we have seen in Ukraine since 2013. Subsequent events, during the other conflicts have often included wholesale destruction of complete cities, such as Grozny in Chechnya and in Syria. The same as is now happening in Ukraine. This process, applied in Ukraine, is no less devastating.
The Ukrainians can never see a win while Russia occupies their land, including Crimea. Ukraine has invested everything that they have in resisting the Russian aggressor and invader.
Russia will have an enormous debt, in terms of reparation, after this war, or that, to whatever level Russia proceeds to escalate the war, in the future.
I am conscious, as are so many others, that this conflict may expand to countries other than Ukraine because of Russia's determination to have its own way. If the "west" is prepared to assist Ukraine in its defence of territory, how do you think the "west" will respond to further aggression into other allied countries?
🇺🇦💛💙❤ 🇺🇦✌🏻❤🇦🇺🕊{Graphics borrowed}
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That potential for instability is the concern, and very likely the reason why western aligned countries will possibly be inclined, I believe, to institute something akin to the "Marshall Plan", that was used to support European countries following the 2nd world war. That may only occur if/when Russia is defeated or concedes.
Here is a hypothetical that I have written about the possible outcome of Russia's WAR waged against Ukraine:
The Russians may have massive underground or 'in the side of mountain' caches, like other countries, such as Iran are said to have, of military and air-force weapons that they have accumulated over the previous recent years. It may be intended to bring this military hardware out at the "last minute" and spring a very unpleasant surprise. While I do not believe this is necessarily so, I believe that, at least, some attention must be given to the possibility, so that if the trap is sprung by the Russians, the Ukrainian military and their supporters will be adequately prepared.
I most certainly hope that the Russians are reduced now, to using older, almost antiquated weapons and transport, such as post 2nd WW T55 and T54 tanks. However, I find it difficult to believe that Russia would have allowed their weapon stocks to be reduced to that level. That is particularly so, when the one area that the Russians should, in reality {not their imaginations}, be least concerned about is the defensive alliance of countries in NATO. Surely, simple logic would not have allowed them to rely, as a last resort, on their nuclear weapons. That should be especially so, given that if any of the Russian nuclear weapons were to be fired, Russian targets will receive a barrage by conventional weapons, that will annihilate the targets at which they would be fired. That would occur before the US, the UK, France, Germany or any other country fired any of their nuclear weapons.
As I was thinking about the possibility of Russia ending up requesting NATO for assistance in their defence, another possibility occurred to me. Such a situation could occur if, about ten years ago, Russia decided that taking Ukraine was an all or nothing gambit. They realised that their oil and gas was only going to be a profitable market commodity for a limited number of years, given the push to "go green". So with an ever decreasing income, ageing manufacturing capacity and limited sea ports for distribution of their products, the acquisition of Ukraine, with its population, resources and the means of distributing products by sea, might have seemed to be a way of solving the Russian dilemma. This situation would mean that they could attempt to take Ukraine and, if unsuccessful, could throw themselves on the mercy of what they refer to as the "west" which I prefer to call the "western aligned nations" or "free world" {More inclusive}.
In the situation that I have outlined, the Russians could step, militarily, right up to the point of using nuclear weapons. They would know that there would be no chance of other countries striking their territory, as has been demonstrated in this WAR. They would also feel safe and assured that no nuclear weapons would be fired unless the Russians did so pre-emptively. At the point where they saw that their weapons had been exhausted and their bluff, in terms of a nuclear weapons attack, had been "called", they would then have to concede defeat and rely on the "free world" for their protection. The Russians would also know that the "free world" would not want to see the uncontrolled collapse of the Russian Federation. The countries of the “free world” would then, in some ways, feel bound by their own concerns to support Russia. This could be accomplished by something akin to the "Marshall Plan" that was instituted, in Europe, following the second world war. In this way, the "free world" also has a positive outcome. However, during the time up until Russia's success {which I do not believe will happen} or defeat, Ukraine will have had to endure the agonies of war.
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I have supported your comment, though I think there may be some differences I would make to the wording. I hope that I have stated your intended meaning correctly. Please let me know if I have not.
"I couldnt watch the end of the video, when the Ukrainian soldiers were explaining what gives them strength. I enjoy watching Jake's videos, but as an American, republican and supporter of democracy and Ukraine, I truly am disappointed in our government to support an autocracy {Russia} over a democracy {Ukraine} or cow down to threats and bullying by a person such as trump or a country such as Russia."
"I am a republican from a state where my congessman is a supporter of trump, a person who is not the incumbent of the presidency, but is running for the position. Trump, an obstuctionist and a bully with no spine. I have sent correspondence stating my position to my congressman, but as you can expect, have received no answer."
With Best Wishes, PNH
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@sanfander Thank you for your reply. Unfortunately, people who do not think the way he used to, very likely, most often ignored him. However, if we look at his YouTube stats, there are undoubtedly many who not only think like him, but also act like him, taking direction and "honing" their styles from his guides.
I have seen quite a few comments from people who have not heard of him; they are fortunate, but he still existed. And there are a slew of people out there of his ilk.
So we have a range of people who who do or do not relate to him and others like him;
-- Unknown
-- Source of Humour
-- Alike and share/swap notes on styles.
I first knew of him about mid-2022 and my opinion of him has not changed, or rather, has only diminished.
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@gregoryadair3223 Your comment "... it is not asking too much {to wish for and expect "..... steady leadership in the US"}. US politics throughout my lifetime was stable and boring."
I agree with and support your comment. Like NATO, many Free World countries had, I believe, slipped into a state of slumberous semi-hibernation that may indeed have seemed boring. However, recent events, particularly in Ukraine have awakened the US, the UK, Europe and many other Free World countries to the ever present danger of lethargy and assumed political and military safety.
Even the negatives, as we see and perceive in relatively close structures, such as our own parliaments, the EU and the NATO Defensive Alliance, such as Hungary, Slovakia and other countries and institutions, have a purpose in keeping us alert and on our toes. Their existence in the present format, also keeps individuals more alert and aware of negative influencers and influences.
Some say that these countries and organisations, including Russia in the UN Security Council, should be dismissed or removed. I think that it is far better to keep the "snakes" in our national and international structures and organisations in plain and clear sight, so that "they cannot slither off into a corner, behind a cupboard", from where they can strike unexpectedly and unpredictably.
To me, it is always a concern when someone, who states that they are "not pro-Russia" or that they "haven't got a dog in the fight" or live far away from the area of conflict, then proceed to talk down our countries and institutions of the Free World. It is then that I question the veracity of their statement of presumed "non interest" or "non involvement", particularly with regard to the enemy or opposition.
🇺🇦 Victory to Ukraine, Absolute Victory 🇺🇦
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@Julei_ Hello Julei, Thank you for your reply.
I live in Australia and am just becoming familiar with the US system of government to a point where I can offer comments in support both for Ukraine and, as it appears, support for people in the US and the US economy.
I understand that the $US value of military hardware is the current depreciated and written down "book value" of the military vehicles and munitions being sent to Ukraine, some of which is close to its "use by date". It still seems, due to deliberate propaganda and dis-information, that many people believe "suit cases of $US are being sent to Ukraine", which could not be further from the truth.
It is my understanding that the financial $US "book value" of the hardware and equipment that is being sent to Ukraine is instead appropriated and used for the purchase and production of new major weapon systems funded in the FY 2024 President's Budget, {FY2024_Weapons.pdf} organized by Mission Area Categories.
This development and production, in the US, of new updated hardware in the form of vehicles, including tanks and APCs, artillery, planes, ships and ammunition is undoubtedly included in purchase orders placed with companies, many of which will be in the regions where Republican party members have constituents.
Those members of government who are opposing the transfer of hardware to Ukraine are penalising there own constituents, and the constituents of other elected members, by delaying the purchase and production of that new military hardware and equipment in the US.
Despite the fact that we would prefer not to see Ukraine having to defend themselves against Russian forces, by sending older hardware and equipment to Ukraine, it is being used for the purpose for which it was intended. In addition, there is no cost associated with the dismantling and destruction of obselete hardware and munitions if they remained in the US. A significant cost saving to the US government and therefore, the population.
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@h.a.9880 Thank you very much for your response H.A.
I share your concern about the way some of the people of the world apparently think, act and speak about their own activities, those of others, or even what they may contemplate. I also understand the angst and anguish felt on behalf of the people treated in such fashion, whoever they are and wherever they may be.
As I mentioned above though, I do not believe that such consideration absolves anyone of responsibility for the actions of their government, particularly Russians at the present time.
While I have attempted to add support for Ukraine and Ukrainians, in the ever so small way that I can, through the comments sections {possibly even to only a miniscule extent}, I remind myself of the expression, {that I may poorly paraphrase}, about the ocean being made of countless trllions of drops of water, without which there would be no ocean. So we each add what we can in whatever way that we can, in droplets size or as parts of bucketsful.
Having trained in the military as an APC driver, I wish that I were able to contribute in more practical ways, but all that was a long time ago and I am literally a world away, with other physical issues that may mean that my presence would likely be more of a hindrance or liability than of any use.
However, I also believe that we each somehow contribute, through our thoughts wishes and prayers, towards the most appropriate conclusion to this WAR and hopefully to a much brighter, cleaner and more productive future for Ukraine. And with those who have died or been injured, physically and mentally, being offered the recognition and honour that they so well merit. That parents, spouses, partners and children will remember those who have died while fighting so valiantly for their families, communities, towns, cities and country.
At the risk of ending on a negative, I add the following reference that shows how, right from the start, the Ukrainians fought, each in their own way. It is also a discrediting reflection on the invaders, the Russians and others fighting on their behalf.
"the-real-role-of-pro-russian-chechens-in-ukraine"
{Full website references seem to merit removal of my posts, so I offer as much as I can without incurring the wrath of YouTube.}
With Best Wishes to You and Those for Whom You Care, PNH
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Sometimes, I get so caught up with the events of the moment, the latest developments, the progress or otherwise of the day to day movements of this WAR, that it is easy to lose sight of the beginning. The false assertions of the pro-RuZZian bots, trolls, shills, sympathisers and supporters just leave those lingering, nagging questions --- "Are they right or wrong or somewhere in between ?" I have compiled these thoughts, information and references about 2013/2014, that may help dispell some, if not all of those doubts.
==== The Maidan Uprising ====
In the protests that occurred in Ukraine during November 2013, the protesters were responding to:-
: The sudden decision, by then President Yanukovych, not to sign a political association and free trade agreement with the European Union (EU), instead, choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union. In other words, he was acting in a manner that was inconsistent with the intent and desire of the democratically elected government of Ukraine, and more consistent with the behaviour and actions of the Belarusian, Putin's puppet "leader", Lukashenko.
: In February of that year (2013), the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) had overwhelmingly approved finalizing the agreement with the EU.[26]
: Protesters opposed, and were attempting to address, what they saw as widespread
-- government corruption
-- abuse of power
-- the influence of oligarchs
-- police brutality
-- violation of human rights in Ukraine.
All the characteristics and occurrences for which Ukraine is still being constantly criticised by others, particularly pro-RuZZian bots, shills, trolls, supporters and sympathisers. Presumably, such people are among those who believe that Ukraine should be cleansed and purified by the overlordship of RuZZia. The RuZZians need to address the issues in their own camp, before throwing rocks at others.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_of_Dignity
---- "In November 2013, a wave of large-scale protests (known as Euromaidan) erupted in response to President Yanukovych's sudden decision not to sign a political association and free trade agreement with the European Union (EU), instead choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union.
"In February of that year, the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) had overwhelmingly approved finalizing the agreement with the EU.[26] Russia had put pressure on Ukraine to reject it.[27]
"These protests continued for months; their scope widened, with calls for the resignation of Yanukovych and the Azarov Government.[28] Protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption and abuse of power, the influence of oligarchs, police brutality, and violation of human rights in Ukraine.[29][30] Repressive anti-protest laws fuelled further anger.[29] A large, barricaded protest camp occupied Independence Square in central Kyiv throughout the 'Maidan Uprising'."
The comments that I offer, I like to finish with this banner as a symbol of my support.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Your comment, those of others and mine appear to agree. It is really up to each of us to continue to support Ukraine through our communities, states and countries, individually and collectively, to the extent that we can and, within reason, as far as our capacity allows.
When the countering "Special Military operation" by Ukraine, against RuZZian forces and the political and military establishment of RuZZia, that i refer to as the Moscow menagerie, be successful and completed as we hope, Ukraine wil go through individual and national grieving processes. It will be during those times that they will very likely need the most support.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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It is, in military terms, a huge waste of the use of available ammunition in the form of artillery rounds. They are not intended for use in deestroying the use of land and making it unusable for the future, unless the military firing the ammunition is not intending to be around to use the land for agriculture, which is what your interpretation suggests.
On the other hand, that may possibly be the intention of the Russian political and military establishment; to destroy land, residential, civil, cultural, education and health, commercial and industrial infrastructure, which is exactly what they have done. consequently, leaving the Ukrainians with the results of the Russian efforts. That intended outcome would be in line with your argument.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Yes. I agree. I appreciate and value the contributions offered by Jake and by Georgijs of Ukraine Matters.
However, the predominent circumstances, perceptions and perspectives, held ten or more years ago, were very different from what subsequently existed in February 2022. Since Russia's secondary full-scale invasion following the initial insurgency in 2014, Ukraine has positively changed the minds of the majority of people in more that 60 Free World countries. That change of minds, through the demonstrations of courage, determination, sound military tactics and other attributes, has earned the Ukrainians the admiration, support and assistance of those countries.
I likewise question the idea that "the war was preventable". Any war can be said to have been preventable, if we postulate any of the inumerable possible conditions and ways in which any war could have been prevented. "Hindsight is normally viewed as if with 20/20 vision.
{The word hindsight refers to looking back or reflecting on things in the past, and 20/20 refers to perfect vision. So when we look back on situations in the past, we see things clearly that were not clear to us at the time.}
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While I am inclined to agree, I believe that Ukraine should be able to use the same munitions that russia is using, except Nuclear weapons, In their own territory and against all legitimate military targets on Russian territory. However, I am a proponent of the "non escalation by Ukraine" perspective.
Many people are saying, "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed". What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is that:
#** February 2022 Russia had nearly 3 times as many tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
Russia 3,400 tanks Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
Russia 990 tanks Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
Russia 2,200 Artillery/Heavy guns Ukraine 1,900 Artillery/Heavy guns {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
Russia 773 Artillery/Heavy guns Ukraine 1,100 Artillery/Heavy guns {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
Russia 1,100 MLRS Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the numbers of MLRS are:
Russia 354 MLRS Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of nearly 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware, not including jet fighter air-craft, SU-95 heavy bombers and ships in the caspian and Black Seas, from which Kalabr and Cruise missiles are fired. That advantage may well have been greater because of levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in all the land-based hardware categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads and bridges that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
💙💛 🇺🇦 💛💙
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BS.
On 19 February 1954, the oblast was transferred from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR jurisdiction, on the basis of "the integral character of the economy, the territorial proximity and the close economic and cultural ties between the Crimea Province and the Ukrainian SSR".
The transfer of the Crimean oblast in the Soviet Union in 1954 was an administrative action of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet that transferred the government of Crimea from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR.
Background
See also: History of Crimea and Crimea in the Soviet Union
Prior to being incorporated into the Russian Empire, the Crimean Peninsula was independent under the Crimean Khanate. The Muslim Turkic Crimean Tatars were under the influence of the Ottoman Empire, while also bordering Russian Empire. In 1774, following the Russo-Turkish War of 1768–74, the Russian and Ottoman empires agreed to refrain from interfering with the Crimean Khanate through the Treaty of Küçük Kaynarca. In 1783, following the increasing decline of the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire annexed the Crimean Khanate.
Within Russia, the peninsula was transferred between multiple internal administrations. Through its time in the Russian Empire and the Russian SFSR, up to its transfer to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954, Crimea was administered by 14 administrations.
Throughout its time the Soviet Union, Crimea underwent a population change. As a result of alleged collaboration with the Germans by Crimean Tatars during World War II, all Crimean Tatars were deported by the Soviet regime and the peninsula was resettled with other peoples, mainly Russians and Ukrainians. Modern experts say that the deportation was part of the Soviet plan to gain access to the Dardanelles and acquire territory in Turkey, where the Tatars had Turkic ethnic kin, or to remove minorities from the Soviet Union's border regions.[1]
Nearly 8,000 Crimean Tatars died during the deportation, and tens of thousands perished subsequently due to the harsh exile conditions.[2] The Crimean Tatar deportation resulted in the abandonment of 80,000 households and 150,000 hectares (360,000 acres) of land.
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My observation is to consider Russia's possiible next moves.
Following the attack on Moldova {not a member country of the NATO Defensive Aliance}, via the lower reaches of the Danube, and connecting with the Russian troops in Transnistria, I expect that Russia would then attempt to take control of Romania and Bulgaria. Those countries would be difficult for the West to assist and support because of the Carpathians and the Pyrenees Mountains, especially in winter. Since Russia has effectively hobbled Georgia, the only other country with a Black Sea border, while Russia maintains control of the eastern portions of Ukraine, would then be Turkey. If Russia controlled the rest of the Black Sea, I wonder what the response of Turkey would be to Russian pressure.
I would consider the Suwalkii Gap between Belarus and Kaliningrad would be the next target after control of the Black Sea. Then Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The more control of Western Europe that Russia acquires, the less safe are the countires to the East of Russia and within Central Asia.
"Central Asia is a subregion of Asia that stretches from the Caspian Sea in the southwest and Eastern Europe in the northwest to Western China and Mongolia in the east, and from Afghanistan and Iran in the south to Russia in the north."
Russia appears to regard the sovereignty of Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and other countries, even those in Western Europe, with equal disdain. They are, according to him, not sovereign states, having no rights other than those granted and controlled by Russia. In other words he tolerates their present state of existence with barely concealed dismissiveness.
TASHKENT, Dec 22
"Uzbekistan's foreign ministry has summoned the Russian ambassador over a call by a Russian politician to annex the former Soviet republic, it said late on Thursday."
"Russian nationalist writer Zakhar Prilepin, who is co-chair of the "A Just Russia - For Truth" party, said this week he believed Russia should annex Uzbekistan and other countries whose citizens travel en masse to Russia for work."
Zakhar Prilepin is an upstart, but dangerous all the same. Prilepin is also connected with Igor Girkin/Strelkov and others in what I would call an extremely unholy alliance. Both Prilepin and Girkin/Strelkov have alluded to future potential Russian attacks on Kazakhstan. Both were involved in Crimea and the Donbas Region. Girkin/Strelkov claims responsibility for initiating the WAR waged by Russia against Ukraine.
Russia already has tacit control of most of the countries to the East of the Black and Caspian Seas {Central Asia}. Uzbekistan is neither in what is considered Eastern Europe nor on the Black and Azov Seas, or on the Caspian Sea. However, I am concerned about all countries over which Russia may have a menacing and malevolent influence.
The following test relates to the attitude of Putin and the political, military and media establishment of Russia towards other countries, possibly all other countries. Please Be Aware.
"Putin's 2013 comments on Kazakh statehood
"In 2013, President Vladimir Putin raised controversy when he claimed that “Kazakhs had never had statehood”, in what seemed to be an apparent response to growing nationalism among Kazakhstanis.[15][16][17][18][19][20] "Putin's remarks on the matter led to a severe response from President Nazarbayev, who announced that the country would celebrate the 550th anniversary of the Kazakh Khanate, which effectively refutes Putin's claim that a Kazakh nation has never existed. He also threatened to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union, saying that the independence of the country is his "most precious treasure" and that Kazakhs "will never surrender" their independence.[21][22][23]
"In December 2020, Putin's derogatory comments were repeated by at least two Russian lawmakers.[24]
"Kazakhstan–Russia relations deteriorated greatly upon the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Kazakh leadership including Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tleuberdi did not condemn the Russian invasion and abstained on the UN vote to condemn it, but at the same time they refused to recognize the Russian states of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic.[32]
"In addition to sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine, the Kazakh military increased spending and training.[33] Although Russia never showed any particular interest for Northern Kazakhstan, a region with a sizeable Russian minority, there is still the fear the same arguments used in Ukraine can be used to bolster Russian irredentism in the North."
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Hi Jake and others in this site, during the last six months, it has become increasingly apparent to me how easy it is to "allow the sales operator to "stick the toe of their boot in the door." An old door-to-door sales technique that has many newer versions and applications in this more recent age of technology.
It is through the information that you and others offer, that I, and I hope other viewers and participants in these sites, become more aware of sly, snake-oil styles, techniques and tactics, that are used by various characters in the social media web space. I am slowly becoming more aware of the things that I do, such as continuing to engage and debate with such operators, in spite of the fact that I have been, albeit unknowingly, contributing weight to their cause and increasing their apparent and real public exposure. My education is developing, so that I get caught less often and consequently give away less and less of my time and resources, and therefore waste less of other people's time, by responding to these tricksters and hucsters.
Some of the tactics are similar to what you describe, such as
----Offering information that is marginal and which, at first, seems inoffensive and relatively innocuous, even if just a tad challenging. In this way, the operator engages the hapless responder, {unfortunately, me at times} into what appears to be a logical debate, but which is in essence just a ploy to gain increased exposure through numbers on the algorithms.
----As you have described, another tactic is to appear to be "calling the responder out", either as a coward, or as being "unable or unwilling to provide facts" to support the responders own arguments, thereby sucking the responder into a carefully baited trap.
----An easy trick to fall for is when events are retold in ways that directly contradict or challenge information that has been reported in "western" media as being, in some way, incorrect. Obviously, in such situations, there can be no counter argument with regard to information offered by Russian media, because all such information is clearly in accordance with and does not deviate from Kremlin rules and direction.
----Another is to Invite a "thumbs down"👎from responders, by making a confrontational statement. I understand that even a "thumbs down" adds numbers to their algorithm rating. (please correct me if I am wrong on that)
----And when someone challenges you with a comment, such as "Dude… you really call “Z” a swastika…", that is totally irrelevant to or a false connection between statements made in the topic being discussed, or at the very least, not a true reflection of information offered, with the obvious desire to draw a response refuting the statement proferred.
In these ways, the number of interactions, with each "thumbs up👍" , "thumbs down👎" or subscription recorded on their site/s increases, as a result of which, so does their exposure.
Suggestion:
It may be useful for others to offer information about the types of challenges they have seen, fallen for {such as I have described having done myself} or knowing of through other sources. Most of my computer experience has been on the hardware side and the last six months in the "interactive media space", particularly with regard to the Invasion by Russia and the continuing WAR waged by Russia against Ukraine, has been a steep learning curve for me.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Absolutely Agreed and Supported. Very pleased, also, that President Zelensky and President Andrzej Duda met in Poland. All respect to the way that Polish people have responded with the immense support offered and provided to the people of Ukraine.
Such criticisms, about dress and attire, simply show that those people have no idea that protocols and arrangements are made hours, { and days or weeks, in some cases } before any such meetings take place. Representatives do not just turn up in what ever attire they may wish or have simply taken out of the cupbourd that morning.
It would, in the case of the meeting between the two presidents in the US, on this occasion, presumably, as all such meetings are arranged, have been the topic of discussion and considered part of the appropriate protocols well before these meetings took place.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Reasons for "Measured and Proportional Response."
There is, effectively, a conference of countries of which the UK, the US {by virtue of their commitment given to Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan under terms of the Budapest Memorandum}, Ukraine of course, Poland, Germany, and approximately 50 other countries, are members. The decisions made are arrived at by consensus among the participating countries, with Ukraine having the deciding voice. One of the issues that appears to have been clear is the concept of "Measured and Proportional Response".
Issues to be considered in the provision of hardware and resources are: logistics, supply lines, facilities for repair - {Repairing tanks is not like taking the SUV to the local repairer for brake disc and pad replacement}, combinations of other support vehicles and even aircraft; consideration of how the hardware is to be used and, probably most important of all, adequate training and experience for the personnel who will be operating the hardware and equipment.
While I acknowledge and understand the frustration that millions of people are experiencing, the consequences of escalating beyond what is referred to as a "proportional response", may be even greater devastation and hardship for Ukrainians than they are already experiencing.
Such a possibility may be difficult to conceive, but Ukraine would be the first likely target if the RuZZians decided to really test the resolve of the "west" or "free world". And if the RuZZians were to fire a small number of tactical nuclear weapons against the major eastern cities of Ukraine, I leave it to you to web-search information about the possible consequences.
The article, in the website below, provides some details on what the response, by western nations, but specifically by the US, to the firing of a nuclear weapon by RuZZia would be. You may wish to read and consider the details, as the possibilities concern us all.
What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?
A look at the grim scenarios—and the U.S. playbook for each
By Eric Schlosser June 20, 2022
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/
{RuZZia refers to the RuZZian Nazi-Fascist style regime that appears to be acting against the interests of their own population and those of other countries, particularly, but not only, Ukraine at the present time.}
====== Russian Nuclear Weapons Targets.======
Russia, through Putin and others, claims that it has numerous city targets around the world that it can attack with nuclear weapons.
However, the "Achilles' heel" for Russia, particularly because of the immense size of the country, is that there are only two cities to target, Moscow and St. Petersburg. If both of those cities were to be annihilated, it would decimate the Russian Federation.
The country currently identified as the Russian Federation would simply revert to being controlled by the ethnic and national identities and groups, of which the current federation is comprised.
Then Putin, if he survived and could find a horse, would need the horse to help him hunt for food. His capacity to exercise power would no longer exist, except in a very limited region, and he would be the focus of recrimination and responsibility for the devastation that would have been exacted on Russia with western conventional weapons because of the Russian pre-emptive strike. The "west" are most UN-likely to respond with nuclear weapons, but neither would they need to.
Putin would have to be aware of the high probability of this outcome, which would most likely be the only reason that would matter to him.
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Agreed and Supported.
RuZZia refers to the RuZZian Fascist-Nazi regime that appears to be acting against the interests of their own population and those of other countries, particularly Ukraine at the present time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism
Fascism is a far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement,[1][2][3] characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for the perceived good of the nation and race, and strong regimentation of society and the economy.[2][3]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazism
Nazism is a form of fascism,[2][3][4][5] with disdain for liberal democracy and the parliamentary system. It incorporates fervent antisemitism, anti-communism, scientific racism, and the use of eugenics into its creed. Its extreme nationalism originated in pan-Germanism and the ethno-nationalist neopagan Völkisch movement which had been a prominent aspect of German nationalism since the late 19th century, and it was strongly influenced by the Freikorps paramilitary groups that emerged after Germany's defeat in World War I, from which came the party's underlying "cult of violence".[6]
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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No!!! Giving the US mineral rights in Ukraine is
DEFINITELY NOT ANY FORM OF SECURITY GUARANTEE
There were Americans working in Ukraine, and at the embassy in Kyiv on both occasions when Ukraine was invaded, in 2014 and in 2022. Neither the presence of Americans nor of the ohchr UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) which was deployed in March 2014 : --
**** at the invitation of the Government of Ukraine. {UN Human Rights in Ukraine} ***
or staff of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, which started its activities on 21 March 2014 : --
**** at the request of Ukraine’s Government and a consensus decision by all 57 OSCE participating States. ***
And, discontinued its operations on 31 March 2022. The presence of American nationals and these two prominent organizations had any effect in preventing the Russians from beginning and escalating their WAR against Ukraine.
Indeed, the Russians accused the US (America) of sedition, incitement to insurrection, orchestrating a coup and fomenting the WAR, waged by Russia against Ukraine. It is, therefore, highly unlikely, even inconceivable, that the presence of Americans in Ukraine would deter the Russians from their WAR. The Russians are constantly indicating by their statements that "peace" can only be on their terms - nothing else will be considered. This is not an ambit statement, it is all that they will accept.
Because of the buildup of Russian troops in Belarus, US Embassy staff and foreigners had to be evacuated in 2022.
TIMELINE
11 Feb 2022 — The US State Department ordered US embassy staff to leave Ukraine as Western intelligence officials warned that a Russian invasion was imminent. Foreigners urged to leave Ukraine, US to evacuate embassy amid warnings Russia could invade before end of Winter Olympics.
12 Feb 2022 — US evacuated diplomats, troops from Ukraine amid 'war zone' warnings. The US evacuated its diplomats and troops in the country and urged private American citizens to leave immediately, according to the State Department
13 Feb 2022 — US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the "imminent" threat of Russian military action in Ukraine justifies evacuating the US embassy in Kyiv. US defends evacuating embassy as Zelenskyy urges calm.
14 Feb 2022 — US relocated embassy from Kyiv. The US State Department said Monday it was temporarily relocating its embassy in Ukraine from the capital, Kyiv, to the city of Lviv in the west of the country.
15 Feb 2022 — U.S. moving Ukraine embassy from Kyiv to Lviv amid Russian buildup. Most embassy staff have already been ordered to depart Ukraine, and U.S. citizens have been advised to leave the country by commercial means.
1 Mar 2024 — State Department Personnel Stationed in Ukraine Return to US. Several U.S. diplomats stationed in Ukraine have returned to Washington after first relocating from Kyiv to Lviv and then from Lviv.
The role of the HRMMU was to monitor and publicly report on the human rights situation in the country, with a particular focus on the conflict area in eastern Ukraine and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, occupied by the Russian Federation.
Since 2014, HRMMU has maintained a comprehensive record of conflict-related civilian casualties in Ukraine, with data disaggregated by sex, age, place of incident, and type of incident or weapon involved. Since 24 February 2022, HRMMU has increased the frequency of its public updates on civilian casualties.
As of 31 August, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) had verified that conflict-related violence had caused the deaths of 11,743 civilians and injured 24,614 in Ukraine since 24 February 2022.
The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine and
the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine
were both established to monitor human rights in Ukraine. The UN mission focuses on protecting human rights, while the OSCE mission focused on implementing the Minsk Protocol. The OSCE mission has since closed.
The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) started its activities on 21 March 2014 and discontinued its operations on 31 March 2022.
The SMM was deployed following a request to the OSCE
**** by Ukraine’s Government and a consensus decision by all 57 OSCE participating States. ***
The SMM was an unarmed, civilian mission, operating on the ground 24/7 in Ukraine. Its main tasks were to observe and report in an impartial and objective manner on the security situation in Ukraine; and to facilitate dialogue among all parties to the conflict.
The decision to discontinue the operations, and to close the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), follows the lack of consensus at the OSCE Permanent Council on 31 March 2022 to extend the Mission’s mandate.
“This is not an easy decision to take. We have explored all possible options through political dialogue with participating States to achieve the renewal of the Special Monitoring Mission’s mandate, but --
**** the position of the Russian Federation left us with no choice but to take steps to close down the Mission,” ***
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@A_Derpy_NINJA Absolutely agreed and supported. I believe that all your points are valid. I am at a loss as to the reason that more people do not recognise those issues. Re your comment beginning "first of all that(s) not a given that Ukraine could have found a work around."
The last point carries the most weight, I think. "They got a good deal at a time when WE all thought a new Russia was being born." Ukraine had been assured that it would be safe from attack, invasion and WAR waged against them. While, at the time, they had some misgivings about relinquishing the nuclear weapons, it seemed, on balance, the reasonable thing to do, both from national and international perspectives. If Ukraine had retained the nuclear weapons, they would also have increased the possibility of being attacked with nuclear weapons. Russia's unprovoked WAR against Ukraine, commenced in 2014, demonstrates that possibility and high probability.
I think that most people are not aware that Ukraine also relinquished to Russia, on the basis of promises made by Russia, most of their military hardware. That included all the Tu-95 heavy bombers. Much, if not all of this hardware has been used against Ukraine since Russia's insurgency, invasion, incitement to insurrection and WAR waged by Russia against Ukraine, since 2014.
As a result of the transfer of Ukraine's military hardware to Russia, and despite Russia's claim to "need to demilitarise Ukraine", the Russian political and military establishment and Putin, in particular, as the signatory to the agreements, knew that Ukraine had, between 1991 and 1997, been militarily emasculated or neutered. Not only did Ukraine have no wish to attack Russia, but they could not do so, without being aware that Ukraine would simply bring great harm on themselves.
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine, Absolute Victory 🇺🇦
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How does anyone, including Jake, explain the un-explainable? If any-one or any group, institution, national or international entity, does not wish to do something, or chooses not to do so, it is only they that can explain their reasons why, if they even know the reasons for their decisions and actions. And if those reasons are deliberately clouded with subterfuge and obfuscation, it is likely that no justifiable reasons, for the positions held, will ever be clearly apparent or stated.
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Antonio Alvir, I really like the way that you have condensed a lot of historical and contemporary information into a relatively brief and significant report.
To state the obvious, no country is perfect and no country's actions are perfect. However, there are countries that endeavour to serve their own citizens with honour and also the citizens of other countries in the best ways that they can.
Unfortunately, The Russian political and military establishment and the military forces that they control, seem to have decided on a path that is devisive and destructive, not only for the people of other countries, but also the people of Russia.
One of the most sobering and concerning references, that I have read recently, is on the site:
"Russia under Vladimir Putin" in a paragraph near the end of the article entitled:
"Militarism and wars outside Russian territory"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_under_Vladimir_Putin
---- "In Andrey Piontkovsky's opinion, Vladimir Putin feels the frustration towards Soviet Union’s defeat in {the} Cold war (which Piontkovsky calls Third world war) and wishes to get a revanche revenge, defeating the West in {a} Fourth world war. In fact, Putin has started this war in 2014 with {the} annexation of Crimea, more specifically since 20 February 2014 – this date is specified in the Medal "For the Return of Crimea".[252] Piontkovsky believes that {the} geopolitical thinking of Putin and his close circle was reflected in the 2018 “Zavtra” magazine article by Alexander Khaldey:[253]
---- "Piontkovsky considers that Putin’s strategical purposes are following:
1) the installation of Russian military and political control under over post-Soviet area {era states and countries} and, perhaps, Central Europe;
2) the discrediting of NATO as unable to protect its members;
3) the entrenching Russia's sphere of interest in Europe through new "Yalta Agreement" with humiliated USA. These goals should be achieved through 3 elements:[255]
Gerasimov doctrine of hybrid war
Patrushev doctrine of nuclear blackmail
Russian traditional despising an {of their} own citizens lives that provides an advantage over “hedonistic West”
---- "The Gerasimov doctrine[256] enunciates wide use of so-called non-linear warfare and reflexive control (propaganda, cyberattacks, diplomatic actions, economic instruments, bribing foreign public officials, etc.); specifically fighting are carried out by special forces and mercenaries under the guise of local partisans. This doctrine declares that non-military tactics are not auxiliary to the use of force but the preferred way to win; that they are, in fact, the actual war.[257] The difference between Gerasimov doctrine and Western views of hybrid conflict is that Russian doctrine combines both low-end, hidden state involvement with high-end, direct, even braggadocio superpower involvement.[258] Russian hybrid warfare conduct aims to create a "hallucinating fog of war" and consistent deception that aims not to paralyze the West's intelligence and anticipatory capabilities, but to alter Western analytical end-results and perceptions of Russia's strategic intentions.[259] The Gerasimov doctrine has been directly applied by Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War.[260]"
---- "The essence of the Patrushev doctrine boils down to “de-escalation through nuclear escalation”. Russia would cause a direct military conflict against NATO in any region outside Russian territory, for example in the Baltic States, avoiding the use of weapons of mass destruction. At first, Russia would succeed, using an element of surprise, but later a turning point in the war would be achieved to the benefit of NATO. At that time, Russia would threaten to use nuclear weapons, and if the threats do not succeed, Russia would launch a limited nuclear strike on targets in Europe. If the West decide to make a limited nuclear retaliatory strike, then Russia would make a larger nuclear strike on targets in Europe and USA. Kremlin strategists believe that the West would flinch first, giving up to “strong-willed Russia”, and would agree to end the war on Putin’s terms.[261] American response to Russian Patrushev doctrine has been so-called Pompeo doctrine,[262] the major standpoints of which were set out in the 2018 US National Defense Strategy, in which for the first time since the end of the Cold war Russia was designated as a global power and principal opponent of the USA. The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review declared that the key objective of U.S. nuclear policy is to dissuade Russia from its mistaken impression that a first-use of nuclear weapons by Russia in a conflict would de-escalate the conflict with terms favorable to Russia.[263] As in the Cold war times, the Arctic can be the area of potential NATO-Russia conflict.[264]" {End Quote}
---- Russian traditional despising an {of their} own citizens lives seems to have been apparent in the way that Russians have been directed to and have fought in the Russo-Ukraine war
Two other sites of interest and relaevant to past and recent events are:
Russo-Ukrainian War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War
Putin's Palace
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putin%27s_Palace_(film)
All words in brackets like this {have been added to the text by me} and also deleted words for clarity by me.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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"Igor Vsevolodovich Girkin {Strelkov} (Russian: И́горь Все́володович Ги́ркин, IPA: [ˈiɡərʲ ˈfsʲevələdəvʲɪdʑ ˈɡʲirkʲɪn];[a] born 17 December 1970),[1] also known by the alias Igor Ivanovich Strelkov (Russian: И́горь Ива́нович Стрелко́в, IPA: [ˈiɡərʲ ɪˈvanəvʲɪtɕ strʲɪlˈkof]), is a Russian army veteran and former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer who played a key role in the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation, and later the war in Donbas as an organizer of militant groups {insurgents and insurrectionists} in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).[2][3][4]
"While leading a group of separatist militants into Ukraine in the 2014 Siege of Sloviansk, Girkin gained influence and attention, being appointed to the position of Minister of Defense in the Donetsk People's Republic, a puppet state of Russia.[4][5][6]
Girkin was also convicted by a Dutch court, and has admitted responsibility for shooting down of Flight MH-17 over the Donbas region, with a Russian supplied Buk surface to air missile. This event caused the loss of all 298 lives on board and is considered murder of those people.
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Why do you not demand that Russia and the Russian political and military establishment come to their senses and withdraw from Ukrainian territory. The WAR, waged by Russia against Ukraine, would end as soon as Russia ceased their military assaults on Ukraine and Ukrainians, and agreed to withdraw from all of Ukraine. The number of people in Russia supporting the Russsian offensive is definitely not a reason for Ukraine to capitulate.
If someone came into your home and raped your sister, beat your wife and killed your brother, would you sue for peace based on the offender demanding that they will stop the assaults if you allow them to occupy the main bedroom and retain the use of the kitchen, bathroom and laundry. I think not.
Correspondingly, based on Russia's refusal to accept any conditions that are not in their favour, we can reasonably assume that they will continue their offensives, or recommence them in the not so distant future. But, it will not just be Ukraine, but other countries that will be attacked, if the precedent, that is represented by my allegorical story about your family, is allowed to occur.
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You are absolutely correct. Russia and Putin are acting like the spoilt brats and the bullies in the school-yard.
First, with its enormous landmass and endowment with immense natural resourses, Russia wants to take what belongs, legitimately and by numerous national and internationally recognised agreements, to another country.
Secondly, despite that enormous landmass, within which a satisfactory "buffer-zone" could be established, Russia uses the stated reason for its invasion and WAR against Ukraine, to be that it needs a "buffer-zone" outside its own borders.
This is Big, Bad, Bold, Tough Russia, with the Big, Bad, Bold, Tough, President Poo-tin wanting to hide behind the petti-coats and hang on to the apron strings of its little sister, Ukraine, because its afraid of the Big, Bad, Wolf that is the defensive alliance, NATO. And then, falsely accuses the victim of its malevalent actions and atrocities.
How Absolutely Pathetic !!!!! A Complete Farce and a pack of lies.
If you care to read the following websites, they will give some insight into the world of Poo-tin and his association with the Russian establishement and people, and his stated intentions with regard to other countries in Europe and the world:
Russo-Ukrainian War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War
Russia under Vladimir Putin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_under_Vladimir_Putin
Putin's Palace
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putin%27s_Palace_(film)
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Russia, through Putin, claims that it has numerous city targets around the world that it can attack with nuclear weapons.
However, the "Achilles' heel" for Russia, particularly because of its immense size, is that there are only two cities to target, Moscow and St. Petersburg. If both of those cities were to be decimated, it would annihilate the Russian Federation.
The country currently identified as the Russian Federation would simply revert to being controlled by the ethnic and national identities and groups, of which the current federation is comprised.
Then Putin, if he survived and could find a horse, would need it to help him hunt for food. His capacity to exercise power would no longer exist, except in a very limited region, and he would be the focus of recrimination and responsibility for the devastation that would have been apparent in Russia.
Putin would have to be aware of the high probability of this outcome, if it even matters to him.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?
A look at the grim scenarios—and the U.S. playbook for each
By Eric Schlosser June 20, 2022
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/
{RuZZia refers to the RuZZian Nazi-Fascist regime that appears to be acting against the interests of their own population and those of other countries, particularly Ukraine at the present time.}
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Yes. Uranium and its variation, depleted Uranium, is 1.7 times more dense than lead. Therefore, it is useful in applications that require the greatest mass {weight on Earth at sea level} in the smallest possible space. Useful on the keels of boats and as counter balancing ballast in planes.
The health effects of natural and depleted uranium are due to chemical effects and NOT to RADIATION. Uranium's main target is the kidneys. Kidney damage has been seen in humans and animals after inhaling or ingesting uranium compounds.
Is depleted uranium still radioactive?
Depleted uranium is a dense by-product left over when uranium is enriched for use in nuclear reactors or nuclear weapons. The depleted uranium is still radioactive, but has a much lower level of the isotopes U-235 and U-234 - way less than the levels in natural uranium ore - reducing its radioactivity.
What is the difference between natural uranium and enriched uranium?
Natural Uranium has 99.3% Uranium-238 ( ) and 0.7% radioactive isotope U-235 ( ). On enrichment of the naturally occurring uranium, the percentage of U-235 is raised up to 3-5%. Thus, the efficiency of Uranium as a nuclear fuel is enhanced on its enrichment.
Is depleted uranium less radioactive than natural uranium?
Natural uranium is a naturally occurring chemical substance that is mildly radioactive. Depleted uranium is an adjusted mixture of natural uranium isotopes that is less radioactive. Everyone is exposed to low amounts of uranium through food, water, and air. {by the natural contact of these plants and animals with the earths crust}
Enriched Uranium is the product when the radioactive isotope, U-235, is extracted, raised or increased to produce enriched Uranium. The depleted Uranium being the considerably less radioactive metal product {Less U-235 than the original ore}. Down from 0.7% U235 to less than one third at 0.2%
Enriched Uranium 3% to 5% U-235
Natural Uranium ore: 0.7%
Depleted Uranium: 0.2%
Typically, the percentage concentration by weight of the uranium isotopes, in Depleted Uranium used for military purposes, is: U-238: 99.8%; U-235: 0.2%; and U-234: 0.001%.
Uranium can be found in soils and waters due to the breakdown (weathering) of rocks containing it. Once it is in the soil and water, it can be taken up by plants and consumed by people or grazing animals, or it can dissolve in the water to be consumed by any organism.
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A Purely Hypothetical Projection
The Russians may have massive underground or 'in the side of mountain' caches, like other countries, such as Iran are said to have, of military and air-force weapons that they have accumulated over the previous recent years. It may be intended to bring this military hardware out at the "last minute" and spring a very unpleasant surprise. While I do not believe this is necessarily so, I believe that at least some attention must be given to the possibility, so that if the trap is sprung by the Russians, the Ukrainian military and their supporters will be adequately prepared.
I most certainly hope that the Russians are reduced now, to using older, almost antiquated weapons and transport, such as T55 and T54 tanks. However, I find it difficult to believe that Russia would have allowed their weapon stocks to be reduced to that level. That is particularly so, when the one area that the Russians should, in reality {not their imaginations}, be least concerned about is the defensive alliance of countries in NATO. Surely, simple logic would not have allowed them to rely, as a last resort, on their nuclear weapons. That should be especially so, given that if any of the Russian nuclear weapons were to be fired, Russian targets will receive a barrage by conventional weapons, that will annihilate the targets at which they would be fired. That would occur before the US, the UK, France, Germany or any other country ever fired any nuclear weapons.
As I was thinking about the possibility of Russia ending up requesting NATO for assistance in their defence, another possibility occurred to me. Such a situation could occur if, about ten years ago, Russia decided that taking Ukraine was an all or nothing gambit. They realised that their oil and gas was only going to be a profitable market commodity for a limited number of years, given the push to "go green". So with an ever decreasing income, ageing manufacturing capacity and limited sea ports for distribution of their products, the acquisition of Ukraine, with its resources and the means of distributing products by sea, might have seemed to be a way of solving their dilemma. This situation would mean that they could attempt to take Ukraine and, if unsuccessful, could throw themselves on the mercy of what they refer to as the "west" which I prefer to call the "free world" {More inclusive}.
In the situation that I have outlined, the Russians could step, militarily, right up to the point of using nuclear weapons. They would know that there would be no chance of other countries striking their territory. They would also feel safe and assured that no nuclear weapons would be fired unless the Russians did so pre-emptively. At the point where they saw that their conventional weapons had been exhausted and their bluff, in terms of a nuclear weapons attack, had been "called", they would then have to concede defeat and rely on the "free world" for their protection {possibly from the Chinese}. The Russians would also know that the "free world" would not want to see the uncontrolled collapse of the Russian Federation. The countries of the “free world” would then, in some ways, feel bound by their own concerns to support Russia. This could be accomplished by something akin to the "Marshall Plan" that was instituted, in Europe, following the second world war. In this way, the "free world" also has a positive outcome. However, during that time, Ukraine will have had to endure the agonies of war.
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Yep Russia should most certainly declare war. I am in full agreement with you "Brian". Along with, as you described, the lack of manpower in the military and its significant logistical problems, despite being the offensive army with the benefit of most of the advantages in terms of more hardware, larger available rail network support, advantage of docks for resupply, eg Mariupol.
But then there is the low morale which is unlikely to change by throwing a few more apples into the barrel, poor co-ordination and control, poor communication between elements, lack of respect for officers, poor resupply of daily essentials such as food and munitions. Yeah!!! Sure mobilise all your conscripts, removing them from their day jobs, see how long the population enjoys martial law restrictions without wanting to know why, because there are a limited number of police and security staff, reduce production, thereby further reducing your GDP.
Disconnect linking units in the production work flow, imposing more restrictions on finance, etc, etc....... Yeah. Please do, go on and declare war, mobilise your conscripts, transfer your manpower from the workforce where they are productive to the military where they are deductive and if they die - no return to the workforce, meaning additional losses using employees as trainers, making them nearly as unproductive as their assigned trainee....... Yeah!!! Go right ahead and declare a war. Good thinking "Brian."
Or were you simply making a cynical remark?
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It really is a mystery why an alarming number of prominent and powerful western business, media, and political figures seem to be pro-Russian.
Why did/ were/ does:
-- the former President of the United States repeatedly express his admiration for Putin and never criticize him?
-- he surround himself with people who previously served Russian interests?
-- he publicly ask for Russian help in undermining his political opponents?
-- were members of his inner circle meeting with Russian operatives?
-- he state that he believes Putin over his own intelligence agencies?
-- he not permit American translators or journalists to attend his closed door meetings with Russian officials or Putin?
-- does Tucker Carlson consistently repeat Russian propaganda?
-- Carlson continually try to influence his millions of viewers towards a pro-Russian direction by making statements such as “Why do I care what is going on in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia?, I’m serious. Why do I care? Why shouldn’t I root for Russia? Which I am.”?
Various members of Congress are very suspect, including a former member from Hawaii and another in California. And now it looks like Elon Musk can be added to the list.
Why did Musk, who you would think has his hands full with other extremely difficult and time consuming endeavours, decide now is a great time to divert his efforts and purchase Twitter and then promptly try and return suspended communication privileges to Trump and Russian propagandists?
My theory is that during the Soviet Union, Russia used the Communist ideology to gain influence and recruit spies and useful idiots in the western world. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, they lost this ability, and they needed a new ideology to serve the same function.
It is possible that this new ideology is "Christian white supremacy", and Russian supremacy is being "sold" as a means to that end. The Russians see this ideology as a means of accomplishing their goals of divide and conquer. Consider interviews between Vladimir Solovyov and Alex Jones, and then the other connections of Jones in the US.
Russia is attempting to cultivate the image within their targets that it is the sole remaining bastion of "white conservative Christians" in a decadent, gender ambiguous and woke world where proponents are steadily losing ground, and with it their political power in democratic societies. Some religious denominations and conspiracy theorists are particularly receptive to these ideas and actively disseminate and distribute the philosophy and ideas.
It is of note that the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church, Kiril, like Putin have both been operatives of the FSB/formerly KGB, and I believe are still so. Kiril's predecessor, Alexeii II {now dec'd} was also a member of the KGB.
I believe the Russians {and Chinese} have been infiltrating the United States with operatives who are quietly contacting and subtly influencing powerful figures, who they have identified as possibly sympathetic to such an ideology with the goal that they will begin to serve Russia’s interests.
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Agreed and supported. However, President Zelenskyy, having completed his training in law, is likely to know the appropriate course of action, and or, to know the people around him who can give him best qualifying advice. Who would have thought that such a difference, in favor of Ukraine, could have been achieved between the projected and completed "minerals deal", that had changed so much in a period of two weeks? There were definitely strong negotiating skills, on the Ukrainian side, for that to have occurred.
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The issue has always been that the Russians should not be trusted because of their own actions, not simply the ideas or perceptions of peoples and governments of other countries. The actions of the Russians, during WW11, were the same as those perpetrated during the last ten years in Ukraine, where there have been a disproportionately high number of murders, rapes and other forms of torture, existence of concentration or so-called "filtration camps" {begging the question, "Who or what was being filtered, for what purpose and with what consequences ?"} and acts amounting to genocide.
Despite the fact that, during WW11, "This was for a good cause,", even then, the other allied nations were not trusting of the motives or actions of the Russian political and military elements. However, the Russians were, then, genuinely fighting Nazis and were, consequently, allies of the western aligned countries.
It was as a result of the concerns of western aligned countries that the NATO Defensive Alliance was formed on the 4 April 1949. An excerpt from a NATO information website follows:
https://www.nato.int/wearenato/why-was-nato-founded.html
"The North Atlantic Alliance was founded in the aftermath of the Second World War. Its purpose was to secure peace in Europe, to promote cooperation among its members and to guard their freedom – all of this in the context of countering the threat posed at the time by the Soviet Union."
The threat posed by the Soviet Union has been extended in time, and now exists because of the actions of Russia, the child of the Soviet Union.
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Are you saying that "everyone who does think that putin is a nice guy is 'normal' (i.e. not insane)"? I definitely do not believe that is the idea that Jake is intending to convey.
Quoting President Zelenskyy;
"We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence, and we remember the moment when things changed, when President Trump provided Ukraine with Javelins. We are grateful for this.
{Are you happy, JD Vance? (Asked rhetorically by Jake)}
Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way that it was supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right. We would like future co-operation and communication to be constructive.
Regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to sign it in any time and in any convenient format. We see this agreement as a step toward greater security and solid security guarantees, and I truly hope it will work effectively."
{Quoting Jake,
"We have to remind everyone in the world who is not insane, this is the reality, ruZZia is the aggressor, rusZZa started this WAR. ruZZia, even today, is continuing this WAR, with daily attacks. They are still trying to grab and steal more Ukrainian territory, more land."
"So, for donald tRump and "MAGA" to be blaming Zelenskyy, blaming Ukraine and offering cover for the ruZZians; this is reprehensible, this is inexcusable, this is offensive."}
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As discussed by Jake, Ukraine is already producing much of their own military needs - at timestamp 10:30 min, the news headline, "US provides 30% of Ukraine's weapons, domestic production (in Ukraine) covers 40% ....". Germany and other countries have already set up manufacturing facilities in Ukraine, in conjunction with the government of Ukraine and private investors and contractors.
Ukraine is the largest country in Europe. Looking at the map of Europe. The area of:
Poland is 322,575 sq km, area of
France is 591,695 sq km, area of
Ukraine is 603,628 sq km,
Ukraine is about 12,000 sq km larger than France and nearly twice the size of Poland. That is a lot of area within which to have manufacturing facilities that can be suitably camouflaged to ensure, as far as possible, the security and protection of those manufacturing facilities.
We might also note, although Russian refineries were said to be protected by air-defence during and following the Cold War, Ukraine has effectively attacked and severely damaged a majority of those refineries during the last twelve months.
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Reason for Proportional Response
* While I acknowledge and understand the frustration that you and millions of others are experiencing, the consequences of escalating beyond what is referred to as a "proportional response", may be even greater devastation and hardship for Ukrainians than they are already experiencing.
* Such a possibility may be difficult to conceive, but Ukraine would be the first likely target if the RuZZians decided to really test the resolve of the "west" or "free world". And if the RuZZians were to fire a small number of tactical nuclear weapons against the major cities of Ukraine, I leave it to you to web-search information about the possible consequences.
* The article, in the website below, provides some details on what the response, by western nations, but specifically by the US, to the firing of a nuclear weapon by RuZZia would be. Please read and consider the details carefully, as the possibilities concern us all.
* What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?
A look at the grim scenarios—and the U.S. playbook for each
* By Eric Schlosser June 20, 2022
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/
* {RuZZia refers to the RuZZian Nazi-Fascist regime that appears to be acting against the interests of their own population and those of other countries, particularly Ukraine at the present time.}
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Russian Nuclear Weapons Targets.
Russia, through Putin and others, claims that it has numerous city targets around the world that it can attack with nuclear weapons.
However, the "Achilles' heel" for Russia, particularly because of its immense size, is that there are only two cities to target, Moscow and St. Petersburg. If both of those cities were to be decimated, it would annihilate the Russian Federation.
The country currently identified as the Russian Federation would simply revert to being controlled by the ethnic and national identities and groups, of which the current federation is comprised.
Then Putin, if he survived and could find a horse, would need it to help him hunt for food. His capacity to exercise power would no longer exist, except in a very limited region, and he would be the focus of recrimination and responsibility for the devastation that would have been exacted on Russia for their pre-emptive strike.
Putin would have to be aware of the high probability of this outcome, which would probably be the only reason that would matter to him.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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WOW !!! The Russian "2nd strongest military in the world" {since disproved} and "There has been virtually no change in the borderline in two years" Even though Ukraine was a "sitting duck", ready for the taking, according to the Russians, and also politicians and others in the Free World.
{This is a long post, if you are interested, you are welcome to read and to use any material if you wish. If not interested, please move on.}
Most people commenting on the WAR waged by Russia against Ukraine may be, reasonably and realistically, not aware of the information in the following text and references.
Ukraine had been militarily emasculated {neutered} by Russia, the US and NATO and the organised "Arms reduction program" {separate from nuclear arms reduction}, between 1991 and 2011. All based on, what has since been shown to be glib, beguiling and false promises by the Russians, during those years {1991-2011}, to respect Ukraine's sovereignty, her borders and independence. Ukraine was left with the few Soviet weapons Russia did not want, and that had not otherwise been destroyed under the "arms reduction program". {see (2) below}
Most of the old stocks of weapons and ammunition remaining in Ukraine were destroyed in what was called "the world’s largest demilitarisation project through international assistance." in an especially co-ordinated "Arms reduction program"(2). This is despite subsequent claims, by Putin, that Russia's aim was to demilitarize Ukraine. It had already been accomplished and Russia, NATO and the US were party to that process, and directly involved.
Consequently, it is ludicrous to assert that Ukraine warehoused and had significant stocks and stores of Soviet weapons remaining for use after 2011. Russia was fully aware of and participated in the "Ukraine/NATO/Russian Arms reduction program" that was well publicised in the free press. As such, Russia's claims to "need to demilitarize Ukraine" have been shown to be equally false, as Russia was fully aware of the compromised capacity of Ukraine, even to defend its own territory, much less mount any attack on a neighbouring country, particularly Russia.
But Russia had always been manipulating Ukraine through Viktor Fedorovych Yanukovych and others, just as Russia has been doing with Belarus and Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko for the past 30 years.
Most of Ukraine's serviceable and useful Soviet era weapons were transferred to Russia prior to the "Arms reduction program", including the majority of the fighter jets and all the Tu-95 and Tu-160 heavy bombers (1). Ukraine was left with what Soviet weapons Russia did not want, and that provided only an extremely limited Ukrainian military capacity, that could be used for internal security and military training. The majority of these aircraft and land-based weapons, that had been transferred to Russia, have -presumably- been used against Ukraine since 2014.
The 31 NATO defensive Alliance member countries, and the ~30 other countries assisting and supporting Ukraine, have provided Ukraine with sufficient numbers and types of weapons to almost match and make a "fair fight" of the WAR waged by Russia against Ukraine. Ukrainians have made up the difference with their independent and sole military personnel contribution {boots of no other countries on the ground}, and their highly regarded courage, determination, tenacity and sound military tactics.
References: {easily web-searched for additional details and information}
(1) Russia-Ukraine war, Russia using Ukrainian weapons sent in goodwill to Russia (1991–2011) on the front line {against Ukraine.} "During a disarmament campaign after the fall of the Soviet Union, Moscow received weapons as payment for Kyiv’s natural gas debts."
{My note: Given Russia's continued involvement and "interference" in the political, military, social, cultural and other affairs of Ukraine, I would question how these debts had been accumulated, especially given the lifestyles of some of the Putin-puppets, such as Yanukovych and others in Ukraine between 1991 and 2013. Subjective on my part, but given other information that has been hidden, diminished and obscured by Russian supported shills and trolls, probably very reasonable}
'White swan' air tankers
{Photo: {Description} "A Russian Tu-160 aircraft, MiG-31 fighter jets and an Il-78 air tanker fly in formation over central Moscow during a rehearsal for a military parade marking the anniversary of the Allied victory over Nazi Germany in World War II on May 4, 2022"
[File: Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters]} By Mansur Mirovalev Published On 11 Jan 2023
"Kyiv, Ukraine – (description) Called the White Swan, the Tu-160 is the world’s heaviest and fastest supersonic bomber."
"The Soviet-designed 'flying fortress' can circle half the globe, fly as high as 20km (12.4 miles) above Earth and carry 45 tonnes of bombs – or a dozen Kh-55 nuclear weapons"
"Moscow has 16 White Swans and has been using them as 'trump cards' in its renewed confrontation with the West."
"In recent years, they have flown over the North Pole to violate US and Canadian airspace, landed in Venezuela and launched cruise missiles at Syria."
"Russia has used the Tu-160 strategic bomber, centre, in attacks on Ukraine, which once had far more of the aircraft than its larger neighbour, Russia.
[File: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters]" "Since last March, the White Swans have rained hell on Ukraine. "They take off from an airbase near the Volga River city of Saratov and launch non-nuclear missiles without entering Ukraine’s airspace."
"And in what may come as a surprise, half of Russia’s White Swans once belonged to Kyiv {Ukraine} – just like hundreds of missiles they carry."
(2) Avoiding tragedy: NATO and Ukraine destroy aging weapons and ammunition, 07 Oct. 2011
English French Russian Ukrainian
In Ukraine, huge surplus stocks of small arms and light weapons (SALW) and tonnes of aging ammunition could threaten the public’s safety should they fall into the wrong hands or accidentally explode. But with NATO’s help, Ukraine is destroying its excess stocks, having embarked on the world’s largest demilitarisation project through international assistance. A ceremony at NATO Headquarters marked the launch of the project’s second phase on 21 September 2011.
Cooperation vital
"After Ukraine’s request for assistance nearly ten years ago, the Alliance launched the largest NATO Trust Fund project to date. “Ukraine highly appreciates NATO assistance in solving this problem,” said Dr Victor Korendovych, Deputy Head of Ukraine’s Mission to NATO, at the Phase II signing ceremony. He added that the project helps Ukrainians “recognise the value of cooperation with NATO.”
"Since 2006, the (NATO Defensive) Alliance has helped the country destroy 1000 Man-portable Air Defence Systems (MANPADS), 15 000 tonnes of conventional ammunition (including small arms ammunition, artillery shells, cluster munitions and mortar rounds) and 400 000 small arms and light weapons (SALW)."
"Steve Costner, Deputy Director of the US State Department’s Office of Weapons Removal and Abatement, said the issue is well known at the highest levels of US Government. In 2005, then Senator Barack Obama visited Ukraine’s stockpiles and watched the destruction process at work."
“The hopes [for the arms destruction programmes] are that we can start using our resources to dismantle these arms and create a more peaceful and safe future for the people of Ukraine and for people all around the world,” Senator Obama was quoted as saying in the Chicago Tribune."
Strengthening demilitarising capacity
"At an estimated cost of 25 million euros, the project’s second phase aims to destroy 366 000 SALW, 76 000 tonnes of conventional ammunition and 3 million PfM-1 (anti-infantry high-explosive) antipersonnel mines. In addition, some 80 Ukrainians will be employed in the coming years."
"The destruction of the munitions follows an industrial process that recycles as much material as possible to offset the cost of the process, explained Dr Frederic Peugeot, NATO Trust Fund Project Manager at the NATO Maintenance and Supply Agency (NAMSA), the Trust Fund’s implementing agent. The project has so far recycled 7500 tonnes of iron, copper, brass, aluminium, explosives and gun propellant from ammunition and 400 tonnes of iron from SALW."
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Veel van wat Zack heeft gezegd bevestigt wat we al wisten. Alle mensen in Rusland worden gehersenspoeld met het nieuws dat ze elke dag worden gegeven, door het Russische politieke en militaire regime. De Russen willen nu dat de wereld gelooft dat het de Amerikanen zijn die de slechteriken zijn. Het Russische politieke en militaire establishment is zelfs zover gegaan als ze zeggen dat het de Amerikanen en de NAVO zijn die vechten en Oekraïne verdedigen. Integendeel, we weten dat de Oekraïners het militair personeel, de moed, de vastberadenheid, de kracht, de veerkracht en voor velen hun leven aanbieden. Aanvankelijk gebruikten de Oekraïners Sovjet -tijdperkwapens, en nu worden ze geleverd met actuele NAVO -wapens. Tot op zekere hoogte, de nieuwere wapens, zelfs de kansen voor de Oekraïners tegen de Russische militaire kracht.
Hoewel het gek klinkt, kunnen we ons ook bewust zijn, dat als we onder dezelfde omstandigheden leefden als de Russen, we waarschijnlijk ook worden gehersenspoeld en op dezelfde manier denken als ze.
We zijn ons er ook van bewust dat, als de oorlog vandaag eindigt, de gevolgen van de Russische oorlog tegen Oekraïne al vele jaren grote moeilijkheden zullen opleggen aan de Russische economie en bedrijven. Elk geloof en geloof in de Russen, de natie en de politieke en bedrijfscultuur, opgebouwd in de afgelopen twee tot drie decennia, is bijna volledig uitgehold. Zozeer zelfs dat het waarschijnlijk een regime -wijziging vereist en generaties zal nemen voordat enig geloof, door de meeste andere landen, zal worden hersteld. De toekomst ziet er erg slecht uit voor de Russen.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Much of what Zack has said confirms what we already knew. All the people of Russia are brainwashed with the news that they are given everyday, by the Russian political and military regime. The Russians now want the world to believe that it is the Americans who are the bad guys. The Russian political and military establishment have even gone as far as saying that it is the Americans and NATO who are fighting and defending Ukraine. On the contrary, we know that the Ukrainians are offering the military personnel, the courage, tenacity, fortitude, resilience and for many, their lives. Initially, the Ukrainians were using Soviet era weapons, and now they are being supplied with up to date NATO weapons. To some degree, the newer weapons even the odds for the Ukrainians against the Russian military strength.
While it sounds crazy, we may also be aware, that if we lived under the same conditions as the Russians, we would probably also be brainwashed and think the same way that they do.
We are also aware that, if the war ended today, the consequences of the Russian WAR against Ukraine will impose great difficulties on the Russian economy and businesses for many years. Any belief and faith in the Russians, as a nation and political and business culture, built up over the last two to three decades, has been almost totally eroded. So much so, that it will probably require a regime change and take generations before any faith, by most other countries, will be restored. The future does look very bad for the Russians.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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RuZZia has fought at least 13 wars since 1991. However, always against, what they apparently assessed as opponents, weaker from a military perspective, than their own. It seems, from various reoports, that they also judged the Ukrainian military to be weaker than their own. Surprise, surprise. What a shock. When they attempt to project lies to people outside their own borders, inevitably, they become the self-imposed believers and victims of their own unbalanced, lieing, scathing rhetoric and falsehoods. The Battle of Grozny, described below, could almost be viewed as RuZZia's training exercise for their invasion and WAR waged against Ukraine.
Battle of Grozny (August 1996)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(August_1996)
Battle of Grozny (1999–2000)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1999%E2%80%932000)
The 1999–2000 battle of Grozny was the siege and assault of the Chechen capital Grozny by Russian forces, lasting from late 1999 to early 2000.
The siege and fighting left the capital devastated. In 2003, the United Nations called Grozny the most destroyed city on Earth.[10] Between 5,000[8] and 8,000 civilians[9] were killed during the siege, making it the bloodiest episode of the Second Chechen War.
List of wars involving Russia since 1991
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=list+of+wars+involving+russia
1991–1993 Georgian Civil War
1992 Transnistria War
1992 East Prigorodny Conflict
North Ossetia-Alania
1992–1997 Tajikistani Civil War
1993 Russian spillover into Azerbaijan
1994–1996 First Chechen War
1999 War of Dagestan
1999–2009 Second Chechen War
2008 Russo-Georgian War
2009–2017 Insurgency in the North Caucasus
2014–present Russo-Ukrainian War
2015–present Russian military intervention in the Syrian Civil War
2018–present Central African Republic Civil War
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Here is an estimate of numbers of deleted personnel required before one or other "cuts their losses". I am supporting Ukraine as the Victor.
Some figures regarding the relative strengths of Ukraine and Russia.
44 million total population of Ukraine
67% of population are 15-64 years of age = 29.48 million men and women
46.3% M/F 53.7% = 13.65 million men
144 million total population of Russia.
67% of population are 15-64 years of age = 96.48 million men and women
46.5% M/F 53.5% = 44.8 million men
Another way of calculating Ukrainian fighting men available is based on remaining population in Ukraine (the statistics being somewhat variable by virtue of movements to and from regions)
Ukraine population as at 8 Mar 2023 = 36.3 million after subtracting refugees to other countries
67% of population are 15-64 years of age = 24.32 {possibly higher %age}
46.3% M/F 53.7% = 11.19 {will be higher %age}
Adjustment for refugees to men remaining = 13.56 million men {44/36.3}
A reasonable estimate of able bodied Ukrainians to able bodied Russians would be approximately 15 million Ukrainians to 45 million Russians.
While the same figures are not likely to be maintained across all front lines and in all scenarios, the relative losses in the Bakhmut front are reported to be 7 Russian military personnel KIA to each Ukrainian member KIA. There appear to be similar number and ratios occurring in Avdiivka, and again in Vuhledar and even Bakhmut. Even if the ratios balance out between 7:1 and 3:1, the total losses are going to be 45 million Russians to 15 million Ukrainians. Let's hope that the Russians decide that enough is enough, long before those figures are reached. The Ukrainians most certainly will not stop, they have nothing else to lose.
Relative positions as at 8 November 2023.
Russia is advancing backward, by retreats, withdrawals and routs from Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson. And at present, desperately clinging to trench, "dragon's tooth" and mine networks, to which their attachment is getting weaker by the day. Great achievement Ukraine. The Russians have attacked Avdiivka, Vuhledar and Bakhmut (again) and other areas along the front lines, with virtually no success.
From the illegal occupation of 28% of Ukraine's territory by March 2022, after its full-scale invasion, to less than 15% in November 2022. This figure is constantly diminishing as is Russia's hardware, land, sea and air-force assets. Likewise, the senior officers and rank and file personnel of the Russian military.
With no navy, Ukraine has damaged or destroyed the following navy assets {and possibly more}:
Naval Ships and Submarines (16, of which destroyed: 11, damaged: 5)
1 Project 1164 Slava-class guided missile cruiser: (1, Moskva, sunk)
1 Project 636.3 Improved Kilo-class submarine: (1, B-237 'Rostov-na-Donu', damaged beyond economical repair)
5 Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged)
1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 640 small patrol boat: (1)
1 Project 1171 Tapir-class landing ship: (1, BDK-65 'Saratov', destroyed)
3 Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship: (1, 'Minsk', damaged beyond economical repair) (1, damaged) (2, 'Olenegorsky Gornyak', damaged)
1 Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 22870 rescue tug: (1, SB-739 V'asily Bekh', destroyed)
1 Project 266M Natya-class minesweeper: (1, damaged)
Russia, with the "2nd strongest military in the world" has made no progress in the last twelve months, despite their meat grinder approach to waging war. The only exception being the Pyrrhic victory of Bakhmut, not taken by the Russian military forces, but by the Wagner PMC.
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of more than 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware. That advantage then, may well have been considerably greater for Russia, because of respective levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms being used, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its land-based hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops {at least half of the much acclaimed VDV} and massive amounts of ammunition, a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads, bridges, fuel stocks and storages, that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
The figures above do not include the areas where Russia retains superiority; jet fighter air-craft, Tu-95 heavy bombers, ships and submarines in the Black and Caspian Seas. However, since February 2022, Russia has lost; 315 air-craft, 310 helicopters, 18 Ships and boats, including the flagship, Moskva.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
{VDV - Russian Airborne Forces
The Russian Airborne Forces is the airborne forces branch of the Russian Armed Forces. It was formed in 1992 from units of the Soviet Airborne Forces that came under Russian control following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Wikipedia}
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Hi Kate, Jake, being ex military, is very likely to be aware of requirements for sensitivity and the limitation of information about allied movements. When I look around the web-net for further information on events that Jake reports, it is apparent that he gathers information from various sources that are already "out there". Consequently, he is not informing the enemy of any sensitive information that they don't already know, {particularly when it has just landed on their heads}. The value of Jake's reports is that he provides a summary of the most recent and relevant events.
I hope that Jake will not mind a reference to Denys Davydov's site, where, in todays report, {30 August} he qualifies the situation regarding sensitive information:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVEaRRuTP_A
The following news report was posted on the "tsn.ua" website:
"Battle for the South: Ukrainian Armed Forces Have Started Counteroffensive Operation in Kherson Region: All Available Details at 18:16, on the 29.08.22"
https://tsn.ua/en/ato/battle-for-the-south-ukrainian-armed-forces-have-started-counteroffensive-operation-in-kherson-region-all-available-details-2145877.html
Scrolling down the "tsn.ua" page, you will see other reports. {Caution: Some of the reports were certainly very unsettling for me. (understatement)}
"TSN" is an initialism for Television Service News, I believe.
Another from the Guardian
"Zelenskiy tells Russian forces to flee as Ukraine counteroffensive begins in Kherson
President vows to push Russia’s military back to the border as advisers claim Ukrainian troops have breached frontline in several places" by Isobel Koshiw in Kyiv,
Tue 30 Aug 2022 16.37 AEST
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/30/zelenskiy-tells-russian-forces-to-flee-as-ukraine-counteroffensive-begins-in-kherson
The following Firefox add-on is one that I have found particularly useful for translating full pages of text from Ukrainian and Russian to English:
"TWP - Translate Web Pages - Translate your page in real time using Google or Yandex. It is not necessary to open new tabs" {as occurs with Google Translate}. "Now works with the NoScript Extension. Rated 4.8 out of 5, 573,253 Users, 2,139 Reviews, Filipe Ps" I have found this add-on is extremely easy to use and with which to become familiar; consequently, I only use Google Translate when I wish to know the specific language that is being translated so that I can write text responses in English and then translate back into the other language.
Any difficulty, please leave a note, if you wish, and I will respond.
Cheers, PNH
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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It would take years to re-equip the Russian military, to prepare new tactical and logistic policies and procedures and then to prepare manuals and trainers for the training required to pass on those principles and procedures to all of their military personnel. Such an extensive exercise is definitely not a short term project. However, it is the reason that Ukraine is adamant about not agreeing to a ceasefire, since that plays into Russia's hands, allowing them the opportunity to do just as you have said. That is particularly so if the ceasefire is allowed to extend for years.
Ukraine actually had some advantage in early 2022. Despite being militarily neutered, with regard to weapons, under the agreements following their independence in 1991 and the Budapest Memorandum signed on the 5 December 1994, the Ukrainians had over the years between 2014 and 2022, undertaken exercises and training with NATO military troops. Combined with their heroic defensive stand and the use of mainly shoulder mounted RPGs, and with the grand assistance of incompetence on the part of the Russian military, the Ukrainians still fought hard against the best troops that Russia could offer, to retain the capital of Kyiv and force the Russians to retreat.
The Russians, feeling the pressure early in 2022, started to use their trainers as troops in the field. Presumably they thought that the additional inclusion of specialist personnel in the field would turn their results in their favour. Even if the idea of a three day operation has been challenged, mainly by pro-Russian stooges in the form of shills, trolls, sympathisers and supporters, there has been evidence, with documents, of the existence of a 10 day plan to take over Ukraine.
https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/seized-russian-docs-reveal-moscows-10-day-plan-to-annex-ukraine-and-kill-top-leaders-articleshow.html
Written By Saumya joshi Last Updated: 2nd December, 2022 11:11 IST
In the Ukraine-Russia war, the details of Moscow's pre-invasion plan for Ukraine have surfaced, revealed by RUSI, a British defense and security think tank.
Needless to say, the Russians were becoming seriously concerned about their failures to take Ukraine after 30 days and then 3 months. Consequently, while I and many other people may be wrong, it appears that Russia has thrown "everything that they have in the toolbag" into the WAR waged by them against Ukraine. Unless we are all very mistaken, the Russian "patriotic" parade is further evidence of their diminished capability, both in terms of personnel, hardware and equipment.
While Russia's offensive and defensive capacity appears to be diminishing rapidly, the opposite is happening for Ukraine. Their inventory of hardware and equipment is increasing both in volume and capacity. The more oif this equipment that becomes available, the better the chances of Ukraine stayin in the fight and gradually reducing Russia's capacity.
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Yes, it seems that many countries, in particular, the US, and institutions, such as the UN are having their structures, constitutions and Articles of Charter & Association severely tested at the present time. This process may be productive in the sense that "what does not kill us makes us grow stronger".
We can hope, wish and contribute through our own means and efforts, however insignificant those efforts may seem at times, that those structures and institiutions not only survive but grow stronger.
{Sometimes our, otherwise seemingly insignificant means and efforts are encouragement in comments spaces such as these. I am at an age where that is really as much as I can contribute}
Unfortunately, during such testing times, there are challenges, losses and stalling of progress. We can only hope that the various structures and institutions are strong enough, not only to withstand the challenges, but to benefit and grow by resisting the pressures and responding appropriately.
By saying that, I am espressing confidence that the foundations of democratic and Free World institutions, organisations and constitutions, while they may seem cumbersome at times, will demonstrate their inherent strength, resilience, fairness, deference and respect for human rights, of which the qualities, characteristics and styles of operation practiced, shown and adhered to by dictatorships and authoritarian regimes are antithetical.
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Some people, particularly those cheering for the Russian position, are claiming the relinquishing of Bakhmut, by the Ukrainians, as a significant victory for Russia. However, I would offer a few points for consideration in order to bring this "capture" of territory into some sort of perspective.
The capture of the place where the city of Bakhmut stood has been referred to as a pyrrhic victory; that is, a victory with little or no value to the "victor" and at a an immensely disproportionate cost in terms of the lives lost to the "victorious" army.
"A Pyrrhic victory is a victory that inflicts such a devastating toll on the victor that it is tantamount to defeat. Such a victory negates any true sense of achievement or(, it) damages long-term progress. Wikipedia"
Perhaps, as said elsewhere, Bakhmut has, in this way, served the Ukrainians well from a military perspective, and protected other towns and cities further away from the front lines.
When viewed in relation to the retreats, withdrawals, and routs of Russian forces from Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson, which some seem to have conveniently forgotten or deliberately overlooked, the location of Bakhmut was always of relatively little value except, possibly, to the people who once lived there. There certainly appears to be nothing of value to the victors where the city of Bakhmut once stood. In fact, it may even be considered a liability and a sponge for resources.
All these retreats occurred despite Russians and their insurgent and insurrectionist, so-called "separatists", holding Crimea and much of the Donbas region since 2014.
POPULATIONS: Bakhmut Population: ~70,000; Kyiv Population: 2.884 million (2017)
Kharkiv Population: 1.419 million (2017) Kherson Population: 289,697 (2017);
Sumy Population: 264,753 (2017)
** KYIV, ** 4 April 2022
With heavy losses and the inability to make further progress, Russia withdrew its forces from Kyiv and Zhytomyr oblasts in April 2022, and Ukrainian forces retook control.
Kremlin officials have announced plans to withdraw troops from the Kyiv region in what is widely being seen as tacit recognition of Russia’s failure to seize the Ukrainian capital. The Russian retreat from Kyiv is the strongest signal to date that Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine War is not going according to plan.
Speaking on March 29, and in an apparent attempt to spare Putin’s blushes, Fomin said the move was aimed at “increasing mutual trust, creating the right conditions for future negotiations, and reaching the final goal of signing a peace deal with Ukraine.” What an absolute parody of the real situation that Russia had created and continues to pursue.
** SUMY, ** 4 April 2022
The Battle of Sumy was a military engagement which began on 24 February 2022, during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, as part of the Northeastern Ukraine offensive, and ended on 4 April 2022 when Russia withdrew all of its forces from Sumy Oblast.]
** KHARKIV, ** 13 September 2022
Russian forces have been 'ordered to retreat' from Kharkiv and the advancing Ukrainian troops, as some Russians leave weapons behind in ‘apparent panic’.
The Russian troops are to focus instead, on defending their position in the eastern Donbas region, according to western intelligence sources.
Ukrainian forces have reclaimed more than two thousand square miles of territory as they continue their counter-offensive, the country’s president Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday, regaining key locations in the Kharkiv region.
** KHERSON, ** 9 November 2022
After Russian troops seized Kherson in March, they were ordered to retreat from Kherson in face of Ukrainian advance. Loss of the only regional capital captured by Moscow since invasion began will come as significant blow to Vladimir Putin.
The retreat occurred only weeks after a high-profile ceremony in Moscow in which he announced the “forever” annexation of the Kherson region, along with three others.
Even before they pulled off their jaw-dropping counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region, Ukrainian troops had thrashed Russian forces in the Kherson region 600 kilometers to the southwest, aided by powerful and precise Western weaponry.
The powerful and precise weaponary, that Ukraine has in inventory and available within other countries, has increased massively in quantity and qualitative value since November last year. While I do not think it is possible to accurately evaluate what is Russia's present military strength, their strength is, most likely now, significantly less than it had availavble in the fourth quarter of 2022. While Ukraine's capacity is increasing, I believe that Russia's capacity is decreasing at an unsustainable rate.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
A short hypothetical essay.
The Russians may have massive underground or 'in the side of mountain' caches, like other countries, such as Iran are said to have, of military and air-force weapons that they have accumulated over the previous recent years. It may be intended to bring this military hardware out at the "last minute" and spring a very unpleasant surprise. While I do not believe this is necessarily so, I believe that at least some attention must be given to the possibility, so that if the trap is sprung by the Russians, the Ukrainian military and their supporters will be adequately prepared.
I most certainly hope that the Russians are reduced now, to using older, almost antiquated weapons and transport, such as T55 and T54 tanks. However, I find it difficult to believe that Russia would have allowed their weapon stocks to be reduced to that level. That is particularly so, when the one area about which the Russians should be least concerned, in reality {not their imaginations}, is the defensive alliance of countries in NATO. Surely, simple logic would not have allowed them to rely, as a last resort, on their nuclear weapons. That should be especially so, given that if any of the Russian nuclear weapons were to be fired, Russian targets will receive a barrage by conventional weapons, that will annihilate the military targets at which they would be fired {as distinct from the civilian areas that the Russians attack with air and ground launched missiles and artillery rounds}. That conventional weapons barrage would occur before the US, the UK, France, Germany or any other country, apart from Russia, ever fired any nuclear weapons.
As I was thinking about the possibility of Russia ending up requesting NATO for assistance in their defence, another possibility occurred to me. Such a situation could occur if, about ten years ago, Russia decided that taking Ukraine was an all or nothing gambit. They realised that their oil and gas was only going to be a profitable market commodity for a limited number of years, given the push to "go green". So with an ever decreasing income, ageing manufacturing capacity and limited sea ports for distribution of their products, the acquisition of Ukraine, with its resources and the means of distributing products by sea, might have seemed to be a way of solving their dilemma. This situation would mean that they could attempt to take Ukraine and, if unsuccessful, could throw themselves on the mercy of what they refer to as the "west" which I prefer to call the "free world" {More inclusive}.
In the situation that I have outlined, the Russians could step, militarily, right up to the point of using nuclear weapons. They would know that there would be extremely limited chances of other countries striking their territory. They would also feel safe and assured that no nuclear weapons would be fired unless the Russians did so pre-emptively. At the point where they saw that their conventional weapons had been exhausted and their bluff, in terms of a nuclear weapons attack, had been "called", they would then have to concede defeat and rely on the "free world" for their protection {possibly from the Chinese}. The Russians would also know that the "free world" would not want to see the uncontrolled collapse of the Russian Federation. Those “free world” countries would then, in some ways, feel bound by their own concerns to support Russia. This could be accomplished by something akin to the "Marshall Plan" that was instituted, in Europe, following the second world war. In this way, the "free world" also has a positive outcome. However, during that time, Ukraine will have had to endure the agonies of war.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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While you mention the 32 NATO countries, it is worth being aware that there are at least 21 other countries also supporting and assisting Ukraine. While these countries, because of location and other reasons, may not be part of the NATO Defensive Alliance of countries, they share similar values and principles on which their support for Ukraine and imputed alliance with NATO countries is founded.
According to the latest data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German think tank, at least 32 countries have provided Ukraine with military assistance including weapons, equipment or financial aid for the army.
Twenty-five of the 32 nations providing military assistance are part of NATO – the world’s largest military alliance with 30 member states. Notably missing from this list is Hungary, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has close relations with Russia.
Countries which have supplied Ukraine with weapons and military equipment include: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, South Korea, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The list above does not include countries providing non-lethal aid or fuel. Some nations may have also kept their transfers secret.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Putin's 2013 comments on Kazakh statehood
"In 2013, President Vladimir Putin raised controversy when he claimed that “Kazakhs had never had statehood”, in what seemed to be an apparent response to growing nationalism among Kazakhstanis. Putin's remarks on the matter led to a severe response from President Nazarbayev, who announced that the country would celebrate the 550th anniversary of the Kazakh Khanate, which effectively refutes Putin's claim that a Kazakh nation has never existed. He also threatened to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union, saying that the independence of the country is his "most precious treasure" and that Kazakhs "will never surrender" their independence."
"In December 2020, Putin's derogatory comments were repeated by at least two Russian lawmakers.
2022 anti-government protests." Source: Wikipedia
"Quite aware that Ankara seeks to increase its presence in Central Asia – a region that has traditionally been in Moscow’s geopolitical orbit – Russia aims to preserve its influence in countries such as Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. It is, therefore, not surprising that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first trip abroad since the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for him on March 17 over alleged crimes amid the invasion of Ukraine, was to Bishkek where he attended the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit on October 13.
"Four weeks later, the Russian leader flew to Kazakhstan, where he met with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Prior to the meeting in Astana on November 9, Tokayev stressed the importance of the Russian language as a “unifying factor in the CIS space.” He also emphasized that negotiations are underway on the creation of joint Kazakh-Russian educational organizations in the southern regions of Kazakhstan. It was a symbolic message that the authorities in Astana do not plan to implement a Ukraine-style derussification of the country, since such a move could have severe consequences for Kazakhstan’s relations with Moscow." Source: thediplomat.com
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* Given the contribution of the US so far and their continuing support and allocation of weapons, I would be extremely loath and hesitant to criticise them for any tardiness. I am not a citizen of the US, so I am speaking as a relatively impartial observer.
There is a coalition or conference of nearly 60 countries assisting and supporting Ukraine, with military hardware, equipment and ammunition of various types. Those countries, to the extent of their relative and respective capacites, offer Ukraine support with logistical, tactical and intelligence provision and planning. Ukraine has the deciding voice on decisions. So, people on the "outside" cannot know what information is being provided, how it is being used or the plans that are developed, confirmed and, subsequently, put into action.
Had "everything been offered up front", say 12 or 18 months ago, the Ukrainians would have been facing the following additional Russian military resources, over and above the currently operating Russian military equipment and hardware that the Russians still retain. {according to Ukrainian sources} The Russian hardware and equipment, detailed below, have been destroyed, damaged, or captured and now used by Ukrainians:
"252,200 Military personnel; 315 Aircraft; 313 Helicopters; 4278 Tanks; 8303 Armoured Combat Vehicles; 5028 Artillery Systems; 469 Air Defence Systems; 711 Multiple Rocket Launchers; 7495 Vehicles and Fuel Tankers; 18 Ships and Boats; 4179 Tactical unmanned aircraft; 1,377 Cruise Missiles; 746 Special vehicles and other equipment."
Consequently, the Ukrainian forces may, at some earlier time, 12 or 18 months ago, have been completely overwhelmed. By depleting Russia's resources while gradually increasing the quality and quantity of Ukraine's resources, Russia's capacity has gradually been diminished without the threat of a Russian "all out" offensive, or their ever present threat of use of nuclear weapons being acted on. I believe that the process has been approached strategically and methodically since last year, and in a fashion that has not elicited a reactive nuclear or overwhelming response by the Russians.
🇺🇦 Victoy for Ukraine 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 Real Peace, Not Appeasement 🇺🇦
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I do not agree with you. Jake has clearly indicated that he is fully aware of the intentions of members of the 'MAGA' cult and their infamous leader. Since the inauguration, Jake has given them the benefit of the doubt. Their leader and members have, in the past few days, shown themselves not to be worthy of that consideration. Jake has, in this video, made clear that his recent (last few weeks) conciliatory approach and consideration has been in vain.
It is difficult, if not impossible, to see how Jake could possibly have, "thought longer and harder about MAGA's true intentions before, ....". Jake was very clear about his views before the inauguration, but since, has shown that he was prepared to have been proved wrong. And would have wished that he could have been proved wrong.
tRump proved himself true to form.
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People are suggesting "diplomatically negotiated peace". Are they suggesting peace at any cost? it is all very well to constantly call for "peace by diplomatic negotiation". However, without any reference to the possible "diplomatically negotiated TERMS of PEACE", the words, "peace by diplomatic negotiation" are just vacuous and hollow.
The RuZZian political and military establishment have shown no indication that they are sincere about working toward a peaceful settlement. Indeed, at each stage, where opportunities may have existed, the Moscow menagerie have escalated their WAR footing. Their stated reasons for the WAR have been shown, by the RuZZians themselves, to be a web of obfuscation, untruths and lies. Because of this, there are no "hooks" on which Ukraine or any other country can begin to pursue peaceful settlement. Even Turkey's President Erdogan seems to have found it difficult to establish preliminary points on which discussions with RuZZia may be based. It appears to me that RuZZia, according to Putin's own words, is bent on their goal of complete subjugation and subordination of the countries within the pre-Russian Federation borders, in other words those borders of the former USSR.
In March of this year (2022), President Zelensky offered a number of concessions, including the agreement not to join NATO. { web-search "Ukraine not to join NATO" for details } However, the offer was declined or ignored by Moscow. It therefore appears that what RuZZia was stating they wanted, was a lie among so many other lies. Following the crimes perpetrated in Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel and other villages, towns and cities, Zelensky, having discusssed with Ukrainian troops, civilians and the government, hardened Ukraine's position.
If RuZZia is successful in gaining the "land bridge" to Odesa, the countries of Moldova, where RuZZia already has its "separatist" state Transnistria, between Ukraine and Moldova, and Romania may well be subject to assault and invasion by RuZZia on pretexts similar to those that RuZZia has used for the invasion of Ukraine. If RuZZia is successful in subjugating Ukraine completely, the countries in addition to Moldova and Romania, being Slovakia, Hungary, Latvia, and Estonia, will have land borders with RuZZia. Finland already has a land border of 1340 km with RuZZia. Poland and Lithuania already have a border with Russia, by being adjacent to Kaliningrad. Poland also has a 420 km border with Belarus, as do Lihtuania of ~680 km (~420 mi) and Latvia of ~173 km (~107 mi)
If Ukraine concedes defeat, or even peace by appeasement with significant concessions, it is likely that RuZZia will again wage WAR against what is left of Ukraine. If RuZZia is again successful, the remainder of the former Soviet Bloc, including all the countries mentioned above, is likely to be at risk of attack and invasion by RuZZia. RuZZia claims to feel threatened by the collective "west" and NATO, yet it appears that the threat is in the opposite direction, and rather by RuZZia against other countries. It has been shown by Putin's own words that the former Soviet Bloc countries are most at risk.
It may also be of interest to readers, to consider the crimes committed during the initial assault on Kyiv and alledged crimes associated with the presence of certain troops in the Donbas. A letter has been sent to the kremlin regarding sexual attacks on the wives and daughters of Russian service personnel based in the Donbas region. It may be useful, in view of recent events, to assess the RuZZian style of operation, by reading the following article. The information relates specifically to Ramzan Kadyrov and Chechen forces in the first attacks on Kyiv and the assaults in the Donbas:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/18/the-real-role-of-pro-russian-chechens-in-ukraine
Better to die with honour than to live in shame, as submissive serfs and slaves in a vassal state, dominated by the RuZZian Federation, which is itself in a state of decline.
{The term RuZZia refers to the RuZZian Fascist-Nazi style regime that appears to be acting against the interests of their own people of Russia and the people of other countries, in particular, but not only Ukraine, at the present time.}
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Unfortunately, the likelihood of invasion by a nuclear armed neighbouring country is increased by the development of nuclear arms. Such development and the potential implications, I believe, do not act as a detterent, but rather as a reason for invasion.
We have seen ruZZia drawing so-called "red lines" supported by their presumed significant nuclear arsenal - said to be the largest in the world. However, even ruZZia's nuclear weapons have not deterred Ukraine from defending their own territory, even to the extent of occupying a part of ruZZian territory.
Invasion of ruZZian territory was stated by ruZZia as the ultimate "red line". Yet, Ukraine has demonstrated it has not been effective as a deterrent to such invasion, as in the case of ruZZia. When an existential threat to the existence of a nation, such as Ukraine, is faced, nothing is an effective deterrent. What have they got to lose? In victory, they lose some for the whole. In defeat or capitulation, they lose everything.
Had Ukraine retained the nuclear weapons, I believe that ruZZia would have been likely to have attacked sooner, in order to gain or recover control of those weapons. It is also likely, given ruZZia's attacks on civilian infrastructure and people, that they would have had no hesitation in fighting a quicker, hotter WAR against Ukraine that would have resulted in the quicker defeat of Ukraine.
Because the WAR has become attritional, I believe Ukraine has a significant chance of victory, albeit with incredible losses. But those sacrifices would be in the cause of the retention of Ukrainian sovereignty.
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Then you would be erasing an important harbour and docking infrastructure that is used for military, commercial and pleasure craft. The Port of Sevastopol is not simply defined as a Russian port, but is Ukrainian, following the transfer of Crimea to Ukraine in 1954.
"Sevastopol Marine Trade Port is a port in Sevastopol. It is located mainly at the Bay of Sevastopol, and at smaller bays around the Heracles peninsula. The port infrastructure is fully integrated with the city of Sevastopol and naval bases of the Russian Navy and the Black Sea Fleet.
"Mostly the port belonged to the national government of Ukraine, while portions of it are controlled by the private sector. [not verified in body]. The port came under full Russian control when the Crimean peninsula, then under Russian military occupation, {ostensibly} joined Russia, after a highly criticized {illegal} referendum on March 16, 2014, known as the 2014 Crimean status referendum, which was soon followed by the {illegal} annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation."
"Strategic value
The Port of Sevastopol is considered a key hold [clarification needed] for maritime routes between the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara, and, therefore, the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. The port is one of the few warm deepwater ports available to Russia in the Black Sea. Russia leased the port from Ukraine, until its {illegal} annexation in 2014. Access to the port is considered one of the main factors that sparked the 2014 Crimean crisis between Ukraine and Russia, and Russia's subsequent military intervention on Crimea."
Wikipedia
{Words in brackets added by me, PNH}
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Als antwoord op uw vraag
"WAAROM VRAAGD HET INTERNATIONALE GERECHTSHOF NIET OM UITLEVERING VAN OORLOGSCRIMINEL PUTIN OF ZITTEN DAAR ALLEEN MAAR PRAATJESMAKERS MET EEN DIK SALARES?"
Ik begrijp dat:
Om een persoon uit te leveren die wordt beschuldigd van criminele handelingen of gedrag, zoals Poo-Tin, moet er een overeenkomst zijn en de verwachting van naleving, tussen het land waar de crimineel woont en het land waar het verzoek om uitlevering wordt geïnitieerd. Zonder een dergelijke overeenkomst en, met name met betrekking tot Poo-Tin en Ruzzia, is er weinig of geen kans dat een verzoek zelfs wordt erkend of overeengekomen, ongeacht de salarissen die mensen ontvangen in het verzoekende land of organisatie.
In response to your question:
"Why doesn't the International Court of Appeal ask for extradition of war criminal Putin or are there just talk makers with thick salaries?"
It is my understanding that:
To extradite a person accused of criminal acts or behaviour, such as Poo-tin, there needs to be an agreement and the expectation of compliance, between the country where the criminal lives and the country where the request for extradition is initiated. Without such an agreement and, particularly with regard to Poo-tin and RuZZia, there is little or no chance of a request even being acknowledged, or agreed to, irrespective of the salaries that people receive in the requesting country or organisation.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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I don't think that the RuZZians care. If the fellow had no ID, he is just another target, presented on the battlefield, for the purpose of expending Ukrainian bullets on (cannon fodder). When or if he is killed, he will not need to be recovered by RuZZians, because he will not be identifiable { No ID }. That also means that he, and many others like him, will be casualties and fatalities, unrecorded in the RuZZian documentation and who will be buried as an unknown combatant. There will be no record for his family of where or how he died; just one of the people who disappeared after they went to Russia. This fellow ( 15:50 ) is likely to be one of the fortunate few who is likely to see his family in Uzbekistan again { probably not returned through Russia }.
They are using the quizling separatists in the Donbas in the same way, being what I might consider just reward for traiterous, treasonous, seditious activities that they have participated in during the last eight years. The separatists have worked in conjunction with the RuZZian regular military forces that have been active with the separatists since RuZZia initiated the movement and unrest. RuZZia used the civil unrest in 2013/2014 which lead to the Revolution of Dignity * (see below) as reason for generating the separatist movement in favour of Russian interests.
Unfortunately the RuZZian military and separatists make no distinction between separatists and Ukrainian citizens when they have mobilised for the purpose of increasing troop numbers. I do feel a great deal of sympathy for such people, who had not been involved in the separatist activities, and their families. Neither will any of these people be recorded in the RuZZian casualty and fatality lists.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_of_Dignity
* The Revolution of Dignity(Ukrainian: Революція гідності, romanized: Revoliutsiia hidnosti, Russian: Революция Достоинства, romanized: Revolyutsiya Dostoinstva) also known as the Maidan Revolution or the Ukrainian Revolution,[2] took place in Ukraine in February 2014[2][1] at the end of the Euromaidan protests,[1] when deadly clashes between protesters and the security forces in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv culminated in the ousting of elected President Viktor Yanukovych, the overthrow of the Ukrainian government, and the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War.[1][2].
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Your comment seems somewhat confusing to me. In principle, I agree with the elements of what you have said. The last sentence appears to contradict the previous two sentences. I understand you to mean:
-- Ukraine wasn't anywhere near NATO membership until the 2014 Russian invasion.
-- Nato advisors assisted Ukraine following the 2014 Russian invasion.
-- NATO assistance was offered to assist a weaker, less well equipped nation to defend itself from an illegal and unlawful invasion in the form of Russian colonialist and imperialist aspirations.
Then the sentence: "Helping a smaller, weaker nation achieve sovereignty and self determination prompted the Russian invasion." Are you saying that assistance provided, prior to the Russian invasion of 2014, by the EU and the US to help Ukraine in achieving sovereignty and self determination, was what precipitated the invasion.
If my view of what you have said is correct, I agree with what you have said. A look at the Wikipedia article on the "Revolution of Dignity" which began in Kyiv shows:
"In November 2013, a wave of large-scale protests (known as Euromaidan) began in response to President Yanukovych's {Putin-puppet} sudden decision not to sign a political association and free trade agreement with the European Union (EU), {that had been negotiated in 2012} instead choosing closer ties to Russia."
"Earlier that year, the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) had overwhelmingly approved finalizing the agreement with the EU.[26] Russia had put pressure on Ukraine to reject it.[27] The scope of the protests widened, with calls for the resignation of Yanukovych and the Azarov government.[28] "
"Protesters opposed what they saw as
-- widespread government corruption and
-- abuse of power, the
-- influence of oligarchs,
-- police brutality, and
-- human rights violations.[29][30]
"Repressive anti-protest laws fuelled further anger.[29] A large, barricaded protest camp occupied Independence Square in central Kyiv throughout the 'Maidan Uprising' "
The Russian political and military establishment got angry, and the invasion officially occurred in 2014.
{Words in {xyz} brackets have been added by me, in the quoted text above}
💙💛 🇺🇦 !!! 🇺🇦 💛💙
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Diplomatically Negotiated Peace
* Some people are suggesting "diplomatically negotiated peace". Are they suggesting peace at any cost? it is all very well to constantly call for "peace by diplomatic negotiation". However, without any reference to the possible "diplomatically negotiated TERMS of PEACE", the words, "peace by diplomatic negotiation" are vacuous and hollow.
* The RuZZian political and military establishment have shown no indication that they are sincere about working toward a peaceful settlement. Indeed, at each stage, where opportunities may have existed, the Moscow menagerie have escalated their WAR footing. Their stated reasons for the WAR have been shown, by the RuZZians themselves, to be a web of obfuscation, untruths and lies. Because of this, there are no "hooks" on which Ukraine or any other country can begin to pursue peaceful settlement. Even Turkey's President Erdogan seems to have found it difficult to establish preliminary points on which discussions with RuZZia may be based. It appears to me that RuZZia, according to Putin's own words, is bent on their goal of complete subjugation and subordination of the countries within the pre-Russian Federation borders, in other words those borders of the former USSR.
* In March of this year (2022), President Zelensky offered a number of concessions, including the agreement not to join NATO. { web-search "Ukraine not to join NATO" for details } However, the offer was declined or ignored by Moscow. It therefore appears that what RuZZia was stating they wanted, was a lie among so many other lies. Following the crimes perpetrated in Bucha, Irpin, Hostomel and other villages, towns and cities, Zelensky, having discussed with Ukrainian troops, civilians and the government, hardened Ukraine's position.
* If RuZZia is successful in gaining the "land bridge" to Odesa, the countries of Moldova, where RuZZia already has its "separatist" state Transnistria, between Ukraine and Moldova, and Romania, may well be subject to assault and invasion by RuZZia on pretexts similar to those that they used for the invasion of Ukraine. If RuZZia is successful in subjugating Ukraine completely, the countries, in addition to Moldova and Romania, being Slovakia and Hungary, will then have land borders with RuZZian controlled territory. Finland already has a land border of 1340 km with RuZZia. Poland and Lithuania already have a border with Russia, by being adjacent to Kaliningrad. Latvia and Estonia both have land borders with Russia of 214 km and 294 km respectively. Poland also has a 420 km border with Belarus; Lithuania ~680 km and Latvia of ~173 km, respectively.
* If Ukraine concedes defeat or even peace by appeasement with significant concessions, it is likely that RuZZia will again wage WAR against what is left of Ukraine. If RuZZia is then successful, the remainder of the former Soviet Bloc is likely to be at risk of attack and invasion by RuZZia.
* It may also be of interest to readers, to consider the crimes committed during the initial assault on Kyiv and alleged crimes associated with the presence of certain troops in the Donbas. While I definitely do not support the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine, it is of interest to note that a letter has been sent to the kremlin regarding sexual attacks on the wives and daughters of Russian service personnel based in the Donbas region. It may be worthwhile, in view of recent events, to assess the RuZZian style of operation, by reading the following article. The information relates specifically to Ramzan Kadyrov and Chechen forces in the first attacks on Kyiv and the sexual assaults in the Donbas:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/18/the-real-role-of-pro-russian-chechens-in-ukraine
* Better to die with honour than to live in shame, as submissive serfs and slaves in a vassal state, dominated by the RuZZian Federation, which is itself in a state of decline.
* {The term RuZZia refers to the RuZZian Fascist-Nazi style regime that appears to be acting against the interests of their own people of Russia and the people of other countries, in particular, but not only Ukraine, at the present time.}
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Your comment is particularly true, despite Putin's claims to wish to disarm Ukraine. At the same time as the Budapest memorandum, signed in 1994, by which Russia, the UK and the USA guaranteed and assured Ukraine protection if Ukraine was ever attacked by any country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum
By this and other agreements, Ukraine passed back to the Russian Federation, not only the Nuclear armaments, but also many air force planes and other significant military equipment. Consequently, Putin and the rest of the political and military establishment knew that Ukraine had very limited supplies of even defensive military equipment. This is, I believe, why Putin thought that Ukraine would be a 3 day or 10 day pushover.
https://rusi.org/news-and-comment/in-the-news/ukraine-war-captured-russian-documents-reveal-moscows-10-day-plan-take-over-country-and-kill-its
Ukraine war: Captured Russian documents reveal Moscow's 10-day plan to take over the country and kill its leaders 1 December 2022
Russia planned to start the invasion with a "massive missile and airstrike campaign" against Ukrainian military targets, RUSI says, with a list also showing who should be killed, who would be intimidated and who would be targeted as a collaborator. Read the Special Report: Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022 - by Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi, Dr Jack Watling, Oleksandr V Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds - 30 November 2022
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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World War Two - Specific Bombing Events
* Some dates for consideration: {each extract is from the Wikipedia reference except the extract regarding the commencement of the war for the US that has a separate reference.}
1940 - 1941 "The Blitz was a German bombing campaign against the United Kingdom, in 1940 and 1941, during the Second World War. The term was first used by the British press and originated from the term Blitzkrieg, the German word meaning 'lightning war'. Wikipedia" Dates: 7 Sept 1940 – 11 May 1941"
1941 "The attack on Pearl Harbor was a surprise military strike by the Imperial Japanese Navy Air Service upon the United States against the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor in Honolulu, Hawaii, just before 8:00 a.m. on Sunday, December 7, 1941."
The US had resisted being actively involved in the 2nd WW until the Japanese bombing attack. Prior to the active involvement of the US, they had been providing supplies to allied forces, particularly under the Lend-Lease Program.
https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/united-states-history-primary-source-timeline/great-depression-and-world-war-ii-1929-1945/world-war-ii/
1941 "On December 7, 1941, following the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor, the United States declared war on Japan. Three days later, after Germany and Italy declared war on it, the United States became fully engaged in the Second World War."
1945 "The bombing of Dresden was a joint British and American aerial bombing attack on the city of Dresden, the capital of the German state of Saxony, during World War II. In four raids between 13 and 15 February 1945 ....."
1945 "On 6 and 9 August 1945, the United States detonated two atomic bombs over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. The aerial bombings together killed between 129,000 and 226,000 people, most of whom were civilians, and remain the only use of nuclear weapons in an armed conflict. Wikipedia"
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@zeffster2
Thank you for your response. You and I seem to share thoughts and ideas that are based on very similar foundations and concepts.
I likewise do not like the words or idea of "demanding help", as distinct from placing a request with another person, institution, organisation or country who, or that may have the capacity to assist, and appreciating the response when they do.
I live in Australia, so am somewhat physically removed from the centres of activity. I have had the time to research and keep up to date with the unfolding events. As in so many situations, ranging from challenging to desperate, we often see the best and worst displayed by many individuals, institutions and countries.
From your name, I believe that you and your country are uncomfortably close to the unfolding events in Ukraine. I can say that the majority of people in Australia, judging by my own circle of contacts and associates, are keenly aware of the magnitude of threats posed by Russia. Also, the impact on peoples' lives and the many deaths, particularly in Ukraine.
Our supportive thoughts, concerns, sentiments and prayers are extended to and for all those in Ukraine and Europe who are affected by the physical WAR, waged by Russia against Ukraine. And also the less obvious WAR of subversion and intimidation being imposed on the European community by the Russians.
Best Wishes, PNH
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Russia's revanchist ideas about re-establishing the USSR or the same by any other name, clearly indicate that Putin and the Russian political, military and media establishment would attack NATO countries. It would be necessary to do so in order to achieve the stated goals and objectives of Putin and the Russian establishment.
Russia is highly unlikely to display maps of its future plans to invade any country in advance. With regard to Russia's invasion and WAR, waged against Ukraine, Russia even stated, right up to the day, that there was no reason to invade Ukraine {a second time} and that Russia would not do so. Yet that is exactly what Russia did, with less than 24 hours notice.
In the following treatise, I have referred to the Google "Map Of Europe."
The countries to the East of Russia are not the only ones at imminent risk, but also the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and Poland, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. Given the current political situation in Hungary and Slovakia, either or both of those countries could possibly capitulate following successful attacks, by the Russians, on Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria.
It is not a matter of what Russia is ABLE to do. It is really a question whether Russia, delusionally {in the strict sense of the word, to my way of thinking}, or in spite of Russia's apparent ignorance of their real and inadequate military capacity against that of the NATO Defensive Alliance {32 countries} and other supporting countries {about 30 at present}, believe that Russia (Putin and the political and military establishment) can achieve their stated goals and objectives of re-instituting the former USSR, by that or any other name. And we know that the intended "revanchism" has been stated by Putin and others in Russia, directly and implicitly.
To accomplish Russia's goals and objectives, Russia would have to attack NATO Defensive Alliance member countries. First, Moldova, {not an NATO Alliance member country}, then connecting with Transnistria, on the long {approx 200 km} North-Eastern border between Ukraine and Moldova, where ~500 or more {OGRF} Russian military personnel are said to be stationed. Then Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO Alliance member countries, but difficult to support from the West because of the Carpathian Mountains and, if they chose to support Russia, Hungary and Slovakia to the North-West.
This portion of the {possible} Russian plan would have to be completed by surprise and with guile, subterfuge and speed, which we know to be one of the trade-marks of the Russian style. At this stage, with the Eastern portions of Ukraine illegally occupied and controlled by the Russians; Georgia, on the Eastern side of the Black Sea, effectively hobbled; Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria secured; the only other country with a Black Sea coastline is Turkey. The question would then arise as to how much soft economic, or hard military pressure Russia would have to impose to make Turkey compliant to Russia's wishes and intentions. At which time, the Azov and Black Seas become, effectively, a Russian Azov/Black Sea lake.
NATO Defensive Alliance, Article 5.
The key section of the NATO Defensive Alliance treaty is Article 5. Its commitment clause defines the "casus foederis". It commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state, in the areas defined by Article 6, to be an armed attack against them all.
The Russians, having accomplished their goal of control of the Black Sea, will have effectively covered the Southern flank of any possible attack against them as they proceed East via the Suwałki Gap, through Belarus. Though, by this time, the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries will have been fully mobilised, under NATO Article 5, as a result of attacks on Romania and Bulgaria. Troops from NATO member countries would then be free to cross and operate within the Polish and Ukrainian borders {with the permission and approval of each country} against the Russians. It is not surprising that Poland has strengthened their defenses on their Northern and Eastern borders.
The Suwałki Gap traverses the Northern portion of the Polish border, which is also adjacent to the Lithuanian border. It may be considered and has been referred to as the "THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE ON EARTH. In a showdown between Russia and NATO, the 'Suwałki Gap' would likely be the first point of contact. By Matthew Karnitschnig in Druskininkai, Lithuania".
The Russians would then likely mount an assault on the 100 km {~60 mile} Suwałki Gap, between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, on the Baltic Sea. The Russians have conventional and, it is generally believed, nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad. Russia is also understood to have moved nuclear weapons into Belarus. With the Suwałki Gap secured, Russia will have successfully divided the Southern European countries from the Northern Baltic and Scandinavian countries. Russia will also have carved a direct route from Russia to the Baltic Sea.
Then the very small countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. In Russia's attempts to accomplish these goals and objectives, and irrespective of their success or failure, Russia could be the cause of hundreds of thousands {possibly millions} of deaths of civilians and military personnel and massive levels of destruction. All of which we have already seen, as a result of Russian military actions in Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and other countries. However, future outcomes of Russia's aggression could be on a very much larger scale, without any compunction or moral scruple, of any sort, on Russia's part.
Russia's claim is, "The only rule of WAR is the outcome", which is a direct counter to, and repudiation of all the international agreements to which Russia is signatory. But, we have already seen, on numerous occasions, that Russia has no regard for Agreements, Memoranda and Treaties when they do no match with Russia's immediate perceived needs or wishes.
The issue is not whether Russia can subjugate, subordinate and dominate other countries, but instead, the death and destruction that Russia will cause in attempting to achieve those goals and objectives. All the death and destruction in Ukraine is intended to intimidate, not only Ukrainians, but also the populations of Western Europe. This is, presumably, in an effort to "encourage" or "persuade" Europeans to sacrifice Ukraine {and possibly other smaller countries} with the intention of saving themselves from a similar fate to that imposed by the Russians on Ukraine. However, such a sacrifice will not save Western Europeans, but rather, will just postpone the inevitable future attacks by Russia. Particularly as Russia gets stronger with each conquest.
We have also seen that Russia seems oblivious to the difference between the combined resources (latent or active) of the NATO Defensive Alliance of 32 countries, and the 30 additional countries assisting and supporting Ukraine, with respect to Russia's own resources as well as other resources available to Russia from Iran, North Korea, possibly China and any other countries that may support Russia.
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@alexeystulevich3744 No, I did not say "make it safe", I said "make themselves safe." There are areas in the west of Kherson City that are higher ground and will not be reached by flood water.
Needless to say, I hope that your family and many others will remain safe. It will make it very much easier for them to stay safe if the dam is not broken, which I also hope will not happen.
Do you think that it would also be a good idea to remove your name from your comment. This is another way that you may be able to help your family stay safe. To do so, you can delete your comment, which is what I would suggest that you do by clicking the three dots at the top right corner of the comment and click "delete" and "delete" again. It's up to you, obviously.
Our discussions are as readable in Kherson City, as anywhere else, by others whom you may not wish to draw attention to the situation of your family.
With My Best Wishes to You and all those for Whom You Care , PNH
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No !!! It is not just you !!! I had thought, early in the Ukraine minerals discussion, that trumpf might get the concessions from Ukraine, and sell them to the ruZZans, possibly, on the justification of "achieving a peace deal". Continuing my thoughts; he would sell the concessions to the ruZZians for his own advantage. The Ukrainians may get SOME peace out of the arrangement, but would still have to endure ruZZian interference in their social, political, military, economic, etc., issues. This would mean that they would have been back to much the same situation as during and prior to the time of Yanukovych, between 1991 to 2013-14.
Thankfully, at least for the time being, the concerns that you and I had, and millions of other people, are, for the time being, relieved. Now we continue to the next stage.
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People think of the NATO Defensive Alliance as if it were an individual person. It is definitely not any such thing. It is an alliance of 33 countries and there are, in addition to the 33 countries of the Alliance, another 20+countries, all assisting and supporting Ukraine. The least we can do is to have faith in our own country and the allied countries of other people throughout the world.
We, as "armchair generals", and equally "qualified diplomats and administrators" can easily afford to offer and make kneejerk reponses and decisions. The people actually responsible for the outcomes that have affect on us all, have to take into consideration all the factors that may effect those outcomes and then make informed, knowledgeable and intelligent decisions based on real experience and the information that they have available.
Let us, let them do their work.
If Ukraine had been given "far more, far earlier", they would have faced a better trained and equipped enemy. Consequently, even if they had "won" the WAR, waged against Ukraine by Russia, Ukraine would have sufferd far greater losses of lives of civilians and military personnel. And far greater loss of military hardware and civilian infrastructure.
Be careful about what you may want and wish for. Quicker is definitely not always better, nor does quicker necessarily provide a preferable outcome.
The following statistics have been extracted from the ORYX website by web-search: "oryx, hardware losses in Ukraine". About half of the category headings are shown in this comment.
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here.
🇷🇺Russian & 🇺🇦Ukrainian Hardware Losses 24 February 2022 to 7 September 2023
🇷🇺Total - 12004, of which: destroyed: 8206, damaged: 479, abandoned: 446, captured: 2873 {captured by Ukrainians}
🇺🇦Total - 4375, of which: destroyed: 2946, damaged: 334, abandoned: 149, captured: 946 {captured by Russians}
🇷🇺Tanks - 2290, of which destroyed: 1482, damaged: 129, abandoned: 132, captured: 549 {by 🇺🇦Ukrainians}
🇺🇦Tanks - 642, of which destroyed: 415, damaged: 53, abandoned: 31, captured: 143 {by 🇷🇺Russians}
🇷🇺Command Posts And Communications Stations 🇷🇺(250, of which destroyed: 163, damaged: 2, abandoned: 2, captured: 83)
🇺🇦Command Posts And Communications Stations 🇺🇦(16, of which destroyed: 12, captured: 4)
🇷🇺Radars 🇷🇺(45, of which destroyed: 29, damaged: 4, captured: 9)
🇺🇦Radars And Communications Equipment 🇺🇦(75, of which destroyed: 57, damaged: 7, abandoned: 1 captured: 11)
🇷🇺Engineering Vehicles And Equipment 🇷🇺(340, of which destroyed: 168, damaged: 9, abandoned: 38, captured: 125)
🇺🇦Engineering Vehicles And Equipment 🇺🇦(79, of which destroyed: 42, damaged: 8, abandoned: 4, captured: 25)
🇷🇺Self-Propelled Anti-Tank Missile Systems 🇷🇺(41, of which destroyed: 17, damaged: 1, abandoned: 4, captured: 19)
🇺🇦Self-Propelled Anti-Tank Missile Systems 🇺🇦(21, of which destroyed: 8, abandoned: 1, captured: 12)
🇷🇺Artillery Support Vehicles And Equipment 🇷🇺(107, of which destroyed: 53, abandoned: 2, captured: 52)
🇺🇦Artillery Support Vehicles And Equipment 🇺🇦(23, of which destroyed: 10, captured: 13)
🇷🇺Towed Artillery 🇷🇺(296, of which destroyed: 169, damaged: 26, abandoned: 5, captured: 96)
🇺🇦Towed Artillery 🇺🇦(157, of which destroyed: 87, damaged: 50, abandoned: 2, captured: 18)
🇷🇺Self-Propelled Artillery 🇷🇺(512, of which destroyed: 368, damaged: 30, abandoned: 7, captured: 107)
🇺🇦Self-Propelled Artillery 🇺🇦(213, of which destroyed: 143, damaged: 47, captured: 23)
🇷🇺Multiple Rocket Launchers 🇷🇺(262, of which destroyed: 192, damaged: 16, abandoned: 2, capt'ed: 52)
🇺🇦Multiple Rocket Launchers 🇺🇦(50, of which destroyed: 32, damaged: 9, captured: 9)
🇷🇺Anti-Aircraft Guns 🇷🇺(17, of which destroyed: 3, captured: 14)
🇺🇦Anti-Aircraft Guns 🇺🇦(4, of which captured: 4)
🇷🇺Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns 🇷🇺(25, of which destroyed: 14, damaged: 1, abandoned: 2, captured: 8)
🇺🇦Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns 🇺🇦(6, of which destroyed: 2, damaged: 1, captured: 3)
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As I understand the Ukrainian position, there is absolutely no chance of Ukraine entering into "negotiations" with Russia while Russian military forces and administrative personnel remain of Ukrainian internationally recognised territory and within the Ukrainian borders so defined.
Russia stated, right up to the day, that that there was no reason to invade Ukraine and that they would not do so. Yet that is exactly what they did. The Russian form of "diplomacy" is fired from the barrels of machine-guns, by tanks, artillery, fighter jets and from the bellies of Tu-95 heavy bombers.
Not just the countries to the East of Russia are threatened, but also the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, as well as Poland, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. Hungary and Slovakia would possibly capitulate with the attack by the Russians on Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria.
It is not a matter of what Russia is ABLE to do, in terms of their goals, objectives and aspirations. It is really a question as to whether they, delusionally {in the strict sense of the word, to my way of thinking}, or in spite of Russia's total ignorance of their real and inadequate military capacity, believe that they can achieve their stated goals and objectives of re-instituting the former USSR, as a Union, such as currently exists between Belarus and Russia, or any other name.
And yes, the intended "revanchism" has been stated by Putin and others, directly and implicitly.
To accomplish those goals, Russia would have to attack other NATO Defensive Alliance member countries. First, Moldova, {not a Defensive Alliance member country}, then connecting with Transnistria (1), on the long {aprox 200 km} North-Eastern border between Ukraine and Moldova, where ~500 Russian {OGRF} military personnel (2) are said to be stationed. Then Russia would possibly attack Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO Defensive Alliance member countries, but difficult to support from the West because of the Carpathian Mountains and also the positions of the recalcitrant countries, Hungary and Slovakia to the North-West.
"Thursday, 18 January 2024. At a meeting held on 18 January, the Moldovan delegation to the Joint Control Commission (JCC) demanded an investigation into Russian military exercises held on 22 December near the administrative border between the right and left banks of the Dniester. The Joint Control Commission is a joint military command structure from Moldova, Transnistria and Russia that operates in the demilitarised zone on the border between Moldova and Ukraine."
Hungary and Slovakia may capitulate, or even support Russia from the North-West, if Russia attacks Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. This portion of the {possible} Russian plan would have to be completed by surprise, and with subterfuge and speed, which we know to be the predominant style for Russian attacks.
At this stage, with the Eastern portions of Ukraine illegally occupied and controlled by the Russians, Georgia effectively hobbled, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria secured, the only other country with a Black Sea coastline is Turkey. How much pressure would Russia have to impose to make Turkey compliant to Russia's wishes and intentions. At which time, the Azov and Black Seas become, effectively, a Russian Azov/Black Sea lake.
Having accomplished control of the Black Sea, Russia will have effectively covered the Southern flank of any possible attack against them as they proceed East, through Belarus and via the Suwalki Gap. Though, by this time, the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries will have been fully mobilised, under article 5, and free to cross Polish and Ukrainian borders {with the permission and approval of each country} against the Russians. No wonder Poland has strengthened their Northern and Eastern borders. Poland shares a border with Lithuania through which the Suwalki Gap passes.
{Article 5. The key section of the {NATO Defensive Alliance} treaty is Article 5. Its commitment clause defines the "casus foederis". It commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state, in the areas defined by Article 6, to be an armed attack against them all.}
Next would likely be an assault on the 100 km {~60 mile} Suwalki Gap between Belarus and Kaliningrad, where the Russians have conventional and, it is generally believed, nuclear weapons. Russia has apparently moved nuclear weapons into Belarus. With the Suwalki Gap secured, Russia will have successfully divided the Southern European countries from those in the North, and have carved a direct route from Russia, via Belarus, to the Baltic Sea.
Then the very small countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. In Russia's attempts to accomplish these goals and objectives, and irrespective of their success or failure, Russia can be the cause of hundreds of thousands {possibly millions} of deaths of civilians and military personnel and massive destruction. All of which we have seen in Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and other countries, but this will be on a very much larger scale, without any compunction or moral scruple of any sort on Russia's part. Russia's claim is, "The only rule of WAR is the outcome", which is a direct counter to, and repudiation of all the international agreements to which Russia is signatory.
The issue is not whether Russia can subjugate, subordinate and dominate other countries, but rather, the death and destruction that Russia will cause in attempting to achieve those goals and objectives. And all the death and destruction in Ukraine is intended to intimidate, not only Ukrainians, but also the populations in Western Europe, presumably, in an effort to "encourage" Europeans to sacrifice Ukraine to save themselves from a similar fate. However, such a sacrifice will be in vain and will not save Western Europeans, but rather, will just postpone the inevitable future attacks by Russia.
We have also seen that Russia seems oblivious to the difference between the combined resources of the 31 NATO Defensive Alliance countries and the 30 additional countries assisting and supporting Ukraine, and Russia's own resources and any other resources available to Russia from Iran, North Korea, possibly China and any other countries.
If you are not already familiar with the videos on Julia Davis' "Russian Media Monitor" YouTube website, it may be worth your while web-searching them. They are extracts from material presented to the Russian population through Russian TV broadcasts, with very clear and understandable English language subtitles. Some of the material could variously be described as horrifying, unbelievable, comical in its absurdity, confronting and numerous other descriptive words. Please do check them out.
Another website, that may be of interest, consists of interviews with 'ordinary' Russians in the street about their views on a wide range of topics, including the WAR, waged by Russia against Ukraine. Those videos can be seen on Daniil Orain's YouTube website, "1420".
References from Wikipedia:
1) "Lying between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, Transnistria is 200 kilometres in length, and in some places only two kilometres wide. This strip of land is officially called the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), and has a population of around 500,000."
2) "The Operational Group of Russian Forces {OGRF} in Transnistria is a sizable overseas military task force of the Russian Armed Forces."
"The OGRF ostensibly remains in Transnistria to guard the ammunition depot at Cobasna. It also provides additional support to the Armed Forces of Transnistria. Today, around 350–400 troops with the operational force report directly to the JCC and can be assigned to it at any given time."
3) The {JCC} Joint Control Commission (Romanian: Comisia Unificată de Control, COC; Russian: Объединенная контрольная комиссия, (ОКК) is a tri-lateral peacekeeping force and joint military command structure from Moldova, Transnistria, and Russia that operates in a demilitarized zone on the border between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine. The disputed territory between the two is controlled by the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (Transnistria, PMR)."
Other Sources:
Atlantic Council
Putin’s dreams of a new Russian Empire are unraveling in Ukraine By Mark Temnycky Ukraine Alert April 25, 2023"
"Putin revives Soviet-sized ambitions in Europe"
By Ned Temko Correspondent January 6, 2022 | London"
"Georgia at risk amid Putin’s push to restore USSR
EURACTIV Media network. By Roman Rukomeda 6 Sept 2022"
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It is so indescribably distressing to see what is occurring in Ukraine. To note that an apparently strong man can be moved to tears, in public, following a missile attack on a residential apartment building in Uman, is indicative of the terrorism being perpetrated by the Russians. Yes, not only the people giving the orders but those actually involved on the planning, process and implementation of these inhuman attacks, and aggression perpetrated, by the Russians, against the civilian citizens, mostly women and children of Ukraine, since many of their menfolk are very likely fighting on the front lines against the Russians.
Unfortunately, I believe these are only the effects that we see. We have been spared everything but the bland knowledge of the trauma and deaths of those Russian and Ukrainian speaking peoples, of places like Mariopol and other cities in the east of Ukraine. Many are people whose rights and freedoms Russia claimed to be protecting by their attacks and invasion of Ukraine, not only since February 2022, but since 2014.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Vladislav's Story
On the edge of Cherkasy, there is a cemetery with a long line of recent graves. They're for the men of all ages from the town who've died fighting since Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the order to invade.
Ukraine honours the dead as heroes, but it's left to their families to grieve.
Each grave is decorated with national flags and heaped with wreaths and flowers. There are images, fixed to crosses or etched into marble headstones, of the soldiers in military uniform.
Photograph: A woman stands next to her son's grave in Cherkasy
Image caption, "Inna's son was killed when a mine exploded"
Inna can't bear to put her son's photo on his grave yet. The image that she used for his funeral is still at home. She's not ready to let go.
Vladislav Bykanov was killed last June by a mine explosion near Bakhmut. He was about to turn 23 and already a deputy commander.
"I believe my son died doing the right thing," Inna says firmly, as her daughter cries quietly beside her.
"I'm a teacher and I always tell the children this: we are right, we are defending our country and our children. My son was defending us. He believed in this cause. And I believe," Inna says before pausing to take in the flags and faces all around.
She hasn't visited the cemetery for a little while and the row of soldiers' graves has grown.
"Do you think my son wasn't afraid? I was afraid too, when he went. Everyone's afraid of dying," she answers, when I wonder what she thinks of those who avoid signing up to fight.
"But maybe being enslaved by Russia is more frightening? Now we see death. It's very difficult. Very difficult. But there is no way back. We can't give up."
Additional reporting by Anastasiia Levchenko and Paul Pradier
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I can very much appreciate and understand the sentiment expressed in your comment. It is coming to a time where NATO must surely become involved. It is, I believe, RuZZia's intention to escalate their actions to a point where NATO must become involved.
Some people would consider that NATO should already have entered the WAR in order to "pacify" RuZZia. It is certainly apparent, should NATO enter directly into the WAR, that the consequences could be worse for Ukraine, since they would likely be the first target of any nuclear attack. It would also be little consolation to know that RuZZia would quickly be annihilated, because Ukraine and the countries around it would already be likely to have suffered massive casualties and devastation. {Even much greater than is now being caused by conventional weapons}
If 1) Russia's non-nuclear resources are mostly expended, 2) they become aware of the future consequences of killing their most productive people, both in terms of future lineage and with regard to rebuilding their economy, and 3) their economy is "trashed";
it would seem to me that there would then be little advantage in the use of nuclear weapons.
The Ukrainian military intelligence and the contemporary sectors in other countries, no doubt, are carefully weighing up the possible scenarios in order to achieve the best possible outcome from a terrible and disastrous situation.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Some other insights into Russia's invasion, the WAR being waged against Ukraine, the deportation and ill-treatment, abuse, rapes, summary executions and murders being committed under the auspices of the Russian political and military regime. The following details, headings, and websites offer material that further qualifies this RuZZian soldier's story:
The real role of pro-Russian Chechens in Ukraine {Some of the behaviour stems from Chechen WARs} I have extracted the following details from the site article.
---- The apparently harrowing, unprovoked and erratic violence committed by them and other Russian servicemen directly stems from the two wars between Chechen separatists and federal forces.
---- Both sides have committed war crimes such as summary executions, mutilation, torture and rape.
---- “The Chechen wars were not only a traumatic experience both for Russians and Chechens, they also brutalised Russian society,” Ivar Dale, a senior policy adviser with the Norwegian Helsinki Committee, a rights watchdog, told Al Jazeera.
---- “Some of that violence and brutality that was normalised by this experience contributed to the horrific violence we are seeing in Ukraine today,” he said.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/18/the-real-role-of-pro-russian-chechens-in-ukraine
Russia’s Mass Abduction of Ukrainians Explained. {Including the abduction of an estimated 260,000 children}
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/russias-mass-abduction-of-ukrainians-explained/
Are the Putin-backed dictators of Belarus and Khazakstan in his corner for the Ukraine WAR?
{Additional pertinant stories on this site}
https://www.grid.news/ukraine-russia/
Kyiv accuses Russia of mass adoption of Ukrainian children
https://pledgetimes.com/kyiv-accuses-russia-of-mass-adoption-of-ukrainian-children/
Russia’s “Filtration” Operations, Forced Disappearances, and Mass Deportations of Ukrainian Citizens
https://www.state.gov/russias-filtration-operations-forced-disappearances-and-mass-deportations-of-ukrainian-citizens/
‘Ukraine as It Was Can’t Continue to Exist’
As its brutal invasion drags on, Russia targets Ukrainian identity and Ukrainians themselves.
https://thedispatch.com/p/ukraine-as-it-was-cant-continue-to?triedSigningIn=true
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Agree with all of the above, though the total number of deaths as a result of the shooting down of Flight MH-17 was 298. They included 283 passengers and 15 crew members.
The Russian political arena is fast becoming an infamous "band of war criminals, murderers, child abductors, torturers, rapists and thieves" and perpetrators of other crimes.
Putin and Putin’s commissioner for children’s rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, have both been charged and had arrest warrants issued by the ICC, for war crimes and child abduction. Igor Girkin/Strelkov {uses both names}, who has admitted responsibility for the shooting down of Flight MH-17, aspires to join the Russian political ranks. Others, such as Aleksandr Dvornikov, "the Butcher of Syria", and General Surovikin, "General Armageddon" {both infamous for their actions in Syrian and other wars}, Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin and Ramzan Kadyrov, are all intimately connected with the Russian political and military establishment.
Maria Lvova-Belova claims to be the “saviour” of children caught up in the war in Ukraine. However, her compassionate rhetoric conceals a sinister plan to deport Ukrainian children from territories occupied by Russia’s invading forces..
The following extracts are from the Wikipedia site "Malaysia Airlines Flight MH-17"
"The incident is the deadliest airliner shoot-down incident to date. All 283 passengers and 15 crew died. By 19 July (2014), the airline had determined the nationalities of all 298 passengers and crew. The crew were all Malaysian, while over two-thirds (68%) of the passengers were Dutch."
"Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17/MAS17)[a] was a scheduled passenger flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur that was shot down by Russian-controlled forces[4] on 17 July 2014, while flying over eastern Ukraine. All 283 passengers and 15 crew were killed.[5] Contact with the aircraft, a Boeing 777-200ER, was lost when it was about 50 km (31 mi) from the Ukraine–Russia border, and wreckage from the aircraft fell near Hrabove in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 40 km (25 mi) from the border.[6] The shoot-down occurred during the war in Donbas over territory controlled by Russian separatist forces.[7]
"On 17 November 2022, following a trial in absentia in the Netherlands, two Russians and a Ukrainian separatist were found guilty of murdering all 298 people on board flight MH17. The Dutch court also ruled that Russia was in control of the separatist forces fighting in eastern Ukraine at the time.[4]"
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No it is not (just) you. The majority of people who have made it to the top in the Russian government, I believe, are likely to have been members of that select and august body, the KGB and later the FSB. These members belong to a "club" where they provide each other with mutual and reciprocal, financial and physical support.
Unfortunately, I cannot say that I believe that all members of government in democratic countries are untainted by political nepotism, corruption and coercion, and are motivated by mostly altruistic ideals, however, there are more checks and balances in those systems to ensure, as far as is possible, that those governments serve the people and not the people used to serve those in government.
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Reasons for "Measured and Proportional Response."
* I believe that Olaf Scholz, and the German government, may be the subject of unfair criticism. There is, effectively, a conference of countries of which the UK, the US, Ukraine of course, Poland and Germany, among approximately 50 other countries, are members. The decisions made are arrived at by concensus among the participating countries. One of the issues that appears to have been clear is the concept of "Measured and Proportional Response".
* Issues to be considered in the provision of hardware and resources are logistics, supply lines, facilities for repair - {Reparing tanks is not like taking your SUV to the local repairer for brake disc and pad replacement}, combinations of other support vehicles and even aircraft; consideration of how the hardware is to be used and, probably most important of all, adequate training and experience for the personnel who will be operating the hardware and equipment.
* While I acknowledge and understand the frustration that you and millions of others are experiencing, the consequences of escalating beyond what is referred to as a "proportional response", may be even greater devastation and hardship for Ukrainians than they are already experiencing.
* Such a possibility may be difficult to conceive, but Ukraine would be the first likely target if the RuZZians decided to really test the resolve of the "west" or "free world". And if the RuZZians were to fire a small number of tactical nuclear weapons against the major cities of Ukraine, I leave it to you to web-search information about the possible consequences.
* The article, in the website below, provides some details on what the response, by western nations, but specifically by the US, to the firing of a nuclear weapon by RuZZia would be. Please read and consider the details carefully, as the possibilities concern us all.
* What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine? A look at the grim scenarios—and the U.S. playbook for each
By Eric Schlosser June 20, 2022
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/
* {RuZZia refers to the RuZZian Nazi-Fascist style regime that appears to be acting against the interests of their own population and those of other countries, particularly Ukraine at the present time.}
====== Russian Nuclear Weapons Targets.======
* Russia, through Putin and others, claims that it has numerous city targets around the world that it can attack with nuclear weapons.
* However, the "Achilles' heel" for Russia, particularly because of the immense size of the country, is that there are only two cities to target, Moscow and St. Petersburg. If both of those cities were to be decimated, it would annihilate the Russian Federation.
* The country currently identified as the Russian Federation would simply revert to being controlled by the ethnic and national identities and groups, of which the current federation is comprised.
* Then Putin, if he survived and could find a horse, would need it to help him hunt for food. His capacity to exercise power would no longer exist, except in a very limited region, and he would be the focus of recrimination and responsibility for the devastation that would have been exacted on Russia, with wesstern conventional weapons, for their pre-emptive strike. The "west" are most unlikely to respond with nuclear weapons, but neither would they need to.
* Putin would have to be aware of the high probability of this outcome, which would probably be the only reason that would matter to him.
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Hello #yamisa8059 I hope that the following information may be supportive and reassuring to you and to others also.
🇧🇾 🇺🇦 🇰🇿
Jake Broe was not saying that he believes that Belarus is not a country in its own right. He was paraphrasing the comment by Margarita Simonyan. Simonyan is an exceptionally vocal spokesperson for the Russian political and military establishment, for Putin and the Kremlin. I believe that Jake Broe and I, with millions of others, share a distinct dislike for Simonyan and many others in her media group and occupation.
🇧🇾 🇺🇦 🇰🇿
Portion of Simonyan's statement was,
"...... it is the first war in our history, in which we have no allies at all ...." at about min 15:30
The corollary or extention of her statement, despite the support that Lukashenko has given to the Russians, is that the Russians do not see Belarus as a country, in its own right.
🇧🇾 🇺🇦 🇰🇿
What is the myth? "Myth 11: ‘The peoples of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia are one nation’ "
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/05/myths-and-misconceptions-debate-russia/myth-11-peoples-ukraine-belarus-and-russia-are-one
"The claim that the peoples of Ukraine and Belarus are sub-nations of a single community known as the ‘triune’ or all-Russian nation (триединый/общерусский народ) is an ideological construct dating back to imperial times. It builds on the idea that a pan-Russian nation with roots in the medieval Kievan Rus’, the cradle of Orthodox Christianity for Eastern Slavs, developed and flourished from the 14th century onwards around the principality of Muscovy. The problem with attributing an exclusive Kievan inheritance to the Muscovite princes – and thus giving credence to what is a founding myth of Russian statehood to this day – is that it distorts history and is used for justifying Russia’s current irredentist ambitions towards its western neighbours."
🇧🇾 🇺🇦 🇰🇿
BY ANDREI BABITSKY
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraine-not-russia-neither-belarus
"Ukraine is not Russia, and neither is Belarus. Before Russia invaded Ukraine in February, I thought it was obvious and not in need of further examination. It didn't strike me that a person who disagreed with this simple observation and who had an army at his disposal would be willing to bet thousands of lives and the future of his own country just to prove himself right. But failing to proclaim this simple truth—Ukraine is not Russia, and neither is Belarus—loudly, publicly, and often turned out to the wrong decision, and I regret my personal lacking in this respect. If many like me had broadcast it daily, it might have helped avoid this insane war.
"I’m not going to talk about Ukraine, as Ukrainians are every day proving their separate, independent existence beyond a reasonable doubt.
"But Belarus is another matter. Many people in Russia, in the United States, and in Europe still treat Belarus and Russia as if they were one and the same. And for many refugees from Belarus who fled to Ukraine during the last couple of years, this confusion is not only unfair but dangerous, as they are not considered among the “usual” refugees, who are granted protected status.
"So let me elaborate, as the political struggles of Belarus have important moral and political consequences.
🇧🇾 🇺🇦 🇰🇿
The same applies to Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakh_Khanate
"In 2013, President Vladimir Putin raised controversy when he claimed that “Kazakhs had never had statehood”, in what seemed to be an apparent response to growing nationalism among Kazakhstanis. Putin's remarks on the matter led to a severe response from President Nazarbayev, who announced that the country would celebrate the 550th anniversary of the Kazakh Khanate, which effectively refutes Putin's claim that a Kazakh nation has never existed. He also threatened to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union, saying that the independence of the country is his "most precious treasure" and that Kazakhs "will never surrender" their independence.
"In December 2020, Putin's derogatory comments were repeated by at least two Russian lawmakers.
🇧🇾 🇺🇦 🇰🇿
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Any idea that Poo-tin had any concerns about the Russian speaking and ethnic population went out the window, years ago with mines planted, residential areas bombed and decimated with grenades, mortar attacks, artillery bombardment and random armed attacks that caused collateral casualties among civilians.
Then, turning the story around and attributing the blame for all the approximately 14,000 military and civilian deaths and casualties, that were caused as a result of the Russian invasion, back onto Ukraine. That really angered me. The responsibility for those deaths and casualties, to my way of thinking, rests squarely at the head of the Russian establishment.
The follow through military activity has caused further civilian and military deaths, survivors left homeless and destitute, dislocations, relocations; enforced or voluntary, refugee movements and destruction to the point of decimation. All this on the spurious pretext that he and his establishment were concerned about the welfare of the Russian speaking population, the majority of whom he has killed or made homeless, and "de-Nazifying" Ukraine. What an absolute and criminal farce.
I agree with you and others Troy, that this whole exercise is about acquisition of territory, resources and access to the means of transporting them through the Azov and Black Seas.
My personal wish is that this whole farce is somehow turned on its head for him and his establishment cronies, and that they see absolutely nothing for their efforts. But at what a terrible cost, mostly in terms of lives, but also in terms of residential and commercial buildings, Industrial complexes and the means of production, lost farm production, etc. In addition to that the cost to his own people, both in lives and economically.
And all of this, when reading the reports of Grozny in Chechnya and Georgia, just reads like the same story repeated, almost "word for word", in these three events, Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine.
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I don't agree, Joshua. Russia, at the present time, occupies little more land than its Russian regular military troops supporting the separatists, have held since 2014. That is despite the opportunity, during those years, to stockpile caches of supplies and hardware, including small arms at various locations in the Donbas region. Oh, yes!!!! all those areas have been bombed and bombarded, making recovery of materials very difficult, including simple food items. With all that dislocation, death and destruction, they have made so little progress.
Russia has made several unsuccessful advances all with a massive loss of military resources, both human and hardware. I really do not call that winning. We all generally believe that Poo-tin will not back down. A point on which are more likely to agree. However, we know nothing about what may happen tomorrow or any day following that.
Furthermore, to say that "no-one is helping the Ukraine" (sic) is to state a fallacy.
And, to be honest I cannot interpret the meaning of "......like with South Korea, and the Germans had the British and the Commonwealth and Americans against them."
It is my belief that you are likely to be a Poo-tin-bot or a gremlin-cremlin-creep, who {if you are human} that {if you are a machine} is pedalling a soft negative narrative.
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I believe that there is an increasing majority of people who are seeing Russsia for what it is. Indeed the word "monstrous" seems most applicable and appropriate. It is because of Russia's own actions and rhetoric, over the last ten years, but more particularly, the last two, that many people have changed from "sitting on the fence", giving Russia and Russians the benefit of the doubt and even considering them somehow maligned, to "getting off the fence" {a foot in both camps} and standing firmly on the side of Ukraine.
Even those who consider that Western nations should look after themselves, and stay out of the conflicts involving other countries, contribute to the discussions by offering other points of view. I believe that such discussions are important, whether we agree with the point of view or not. Those discussions challenge us to seriously think about and consider the implications and possible outcomes of our collective decisions. They also keep the topic in view and keep the discussion "on the boil", instead of us gradually withdrawing into apathy, mental fatigue and losing sight of the issues at hand, whether near or far.
During the last two years, I have followed what has been happening in Ukraine and also researching the background, the impact and influence of and effects, current and potential, on the other countries involved and participating in the assistance and support being provided to Ukraine, by 60 or more other countries, about half of which are members of the NATO Defensive Alliance.
Like you, #paulbrowne6087 , and I hope, millions of others, "all this talk of Western fatigue doesn't apply to me us.
🇺🇦 Slava Ukraine 🇮🇪🇺🇦 Heroyam Slava 🇺🇦
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Rapid End to WAR & Attrition of Military Resources.
Many people are saying, "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed". What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is that:
#** February 2022, Russia had nearly 3 times as many tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
-- Russia 3,400 tanks
-- Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
-- Russia 990 tanks
-- Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022, Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
-- Russia 2,200 Artillery/Heavy guns
-- Ukraine 1,900 Artillery/Heavy guns {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
-- Russia 773 Artillery/Heavy guns
-- Ukraine 1,100 Artillery/Heavy guns {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022, Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
-- Russia 1,100 MLRS
-- Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the numbers of MLRS are:
-- Russia 354 MLRS
-- Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here.
Russia: Total hardware and Tank losses 24 Feb 2022 to 30 Oct 2023
Total - 12863, of which: destroyed: 8911, damaged: 554, abandoned: 498, captured: 2900
Tanks - 2437, of which destroyed: 1591, damaged: 139, abandoned: 157, captured: 550
Ukraine: Total hardware and Tank losses 24 Feb 2022 to 30 Oct 2023
Total - 4666, of which: destroyed: 3179, damaged: 354, abandoned: 172, captured: 960
Tanks - 682, of which destroyed: 451, damaged: 55, abandoned: 35, captured: 141
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of nearly 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware. That advantage may well have been greater because of levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads and bridges that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine 🇺🇦
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Whether we like it or not, there is little about war in films or the media in Australia. People from other countries can easily access our news sources to verify what I am saying is correct. There is most certainly no "increasingly prevalent propaganda" that would otherwise, if it were true, be priming and grooming people for more widespread war, particularly in Australia.
Naturally, the media does give us generalised insights into developments in Ukraine, the Middle East, China, Taiwan, the Philippines and other regions. However, I see absolutely no indication about the fomenting of a war-like footing or mentality in Australia.
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People believe that Russia would not attack NATO Defensive Alliance member countries. I think that belief is simply naive.
No !! Unfortunately, I am not joking. Anything but joking.
What difference does it make to Russia whether it is Ukraine or any of the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries? Putin and the Russian political, military and media establishment have clearly stated their intention to re-acquire and re-integrate the former USSR.
We, in the Free World, may reasonably have faith in the purpose, intentions, integrity and capacity of the NATO Defensive alliance to perform the role for which it was initially established on 4 April 1949.
{The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was created in 1949 by the United States, Canada, and several Western European nations to provide collective security against the Soviet Union. NATO was the first peacetime military alliance the United States entered into outside of the Western Hemisphere.}
However, do we really believe that Russia, by delusion, ignorance or sheer brazenness, is really worried or concerned about the NATO Defensive Alliance? Quite apart from the reality, they may even believe their own propaganda, in which case, the answer would very likely be an emphatic, "NO !!!"
No matter what we may believe. I think the Russians, unless completely defeated in Ukraine, including Crimea and the Donbas, are likely to attempt to attack other countries, NATO Defensive Alliance member countries or otherwise.
If Ukraine falls, despite the assistance and support of 60 or more countries, Russia will consider that the present 31 NATO Defensive Alliance member countries will also be as weak in defending other NATO Defensive Alliance countries, particularly the smaller ones. Indeed, I see Ukraine as a test, by Russia, of the resolve of the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries and the rest of the countries of the Free World.
As of 2023, NATO consists of 31 member countries spanning across North America and Europe. These nations have forged a collective commitment to mutual defence and security, fostering cooperation in military, political and strategic realms.
8 Nov 2023
Russia would perform their usual actions, in attacks on other countries, of infiltration by unidentified military troops, as they did in Crimea, followed by regular military units. At present the Russians already illegally occupy Transnistria, between Moldova and Ukraine. We surely cannot believe that Russia will play by the Free World rule book.
Consider the map of Europe.
First Moldova {not yet a NATO Defensive Alliance member}, then Romania and Bulgaria {both NATO Defensive Alliance members.} and control of both would enlarge and enhance Russia's control of the Black Sea.
Part of the reason that Ukraine is important to Russia is that it provides relatively easy access for military formations from the West to reach Russia. And, therefore, for Russia to use as that "buffer zone" of which the Russians regularly speak, within which they can fight off any "invading" troops from the West, offensive or defensive.
South of that access route between Poland in the West and Russia to the East of Ukraine, the Russians are protected by mountains that would make it especially difficult for any defending Western troops to reach Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria, in a timely fashion with sufficient troops, hardware and munitions.
The Tatra Mountains (pronouncedⓘ), Tatras, or Tatra, are a series of mountains within the Western Carpathians that form a natural border between Slovakia and Poland. They are the highest mountains in the Carpathians. The Tatras are distinct from the Low Tatras (Slovak: Nízke Tatry), a separate Slovak mountain range further south.
In the northern Balkans are the Carpathian mountains, which reach quite great heights in Transylvania, the western part of Romania. There are many other smaller ranges of mountains and hills as well.
Then, on the Black Sea, with Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria, in the West, and Georgia, in the East, controlled by Russia, Russia will have control of the Black Sea, except for the Northern coastline of Turkey.
How much pressure would Russia put on Turkey and which direction do you think Turkey may turn with regard to access to the Bosphorus Strait, if Russia controls the Azov Sea and the rest of the Black Sea?
Then, with a compliant Ukraine and Belarus, the next target would be the Suwalki Gap, between Belarus and Kaliningrad. The objective would be to physically connect Russia with Kaliningrad via the Suwalki Gap. There is just 65 km {or 40 miles} across the gap between Kaliningrad and Belarus.
Until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Poland's only eastern and northern neighbour was the USSR, thus, as in the interwar period, the region mattered little in military terms.
This changed after 1991, when Kaliningrad Oblast became a semi-exclave of Russia, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, both of which are neighbours with Belarus, but neither Poland nor Lithuania has a direct border with the "mainland" part of Russia
{until Russia establishes control of both Belarus and Ukraine}.
The immediate neighbours of the Kaliningrad Oblast, Poland and Lithuania, both entered the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Defensive Alliance, but at the same time, only 65 km (40 mi) of Polish territory separates two areas of the rival {to NATO} Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Union State of Belarus and Russia. We may also recall that Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine were signatories, with the "protectors", Russia, the UK and the US, to the Budapest Memorandum of 1994.
{ The Union State, or Union State of Russia and Belarus, is a supranational union consisting of Belarus and Russia, with the stated aim of deepening the relationship between the two states through integration in economic and defence policy.}
The former Estonian President, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, claims to have come up with the name "Suwałki Gap" before his meeting with Ursula von der Leyen, then serving as the defence minister of Germany, in April 2015, to highlight the vulnerability of the area for the Baltic states.
The next steps would be North to take Lithuania, Latvia and then Estonia. This would give the Russians significant influence in the Baltic Sea again.
It would be interesting to know what is stored in the massive concrete bunkers, built by the Nazis in WW2, in what is now Kaliningrad. It is also generally understood that the Russians have some type of nuclear weapons housed at Kaliningrad.
Unfortunately, No, I am not joking.
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@mikecrooks8085
Hello Mike, Thank you for your reply and qualification. Though I had not understood the nuance of your comment, I understood the general drift. I now follow your allusion to the idea of "making them into good Russians".
Yes, I have seen the pictures of deserted and abandoned camps and the terrible way that the RuZZian forces evidently live while they occupy any ground and the condition in which they leave the ground when they depart. Similar observations, made by you and others, add weight to the visual images.
Such images also indicate the lack of discipline among individuals and the RuZZian troops collectively. A reflection on the reason that Pootin and the Moscow political and military establishment seem to be relying on overwhelming numbers, instead of the actions of disciplined and well co-ordinated troop movements to achieve their goals.
It seems that the same may also be said of the people who are pro-RuZZian supporters and sympathisers in the comments sections following various videos. Their comments often seem to be just a parroting of the "official RuZZian line" and other standardised responses, rather than a reasoned discussion of the issues at hand.
The reason for the collection {stealing} of various electrical and electronic goods, for the recovery of components scavenged for the purpose of using them in domestic weapons production, by RuZZians, also appaears to be an indication of the incapacity of RuZZia to develop and integrate their own technology for the purpose of producing their own goods for military or peaceful applications.
I am aware of a TV program where one of the panel members suggested negotiating with the forces in Afghanistan, in exchange of training provided by the RuZZians, for American equipment and arms that were left after the withdrawal. Unless such comments are deliberate and choreographed attempts to confuse and muddy the information stream, such actions appear to be significant signs of desperation in the RuZZian 'camp'.
With Best Wishes to You and Yours, PNH
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Hi Ya FF, We can all be worried about negative possibilities, but where does that take us, or get us. I do not like the expression because it normally seems dismissive, but "it will either happen or it will not". I believe that the question is "do we capitulate or prepare". If we decide not to capitulate or surrender, the other option is to go about our business and take what time is needed to prepare. It is absolutely no good worrying if we do not know what it is about which we are worried.
In order to consider options, we first need to know what it is that we are dealing with. The following extract is from the website:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon
---- "A tactical nuclear weapon (TNW) or non-strategic nuclear weapon (NSNW)[1] is a nuclear weapon which is designed to be used on a battlefield in military situations, mostly with friendly forces in proximity and perhaps even on contested friendly territory. Generally smaller in explosive power, they are defined in contrast to strategic nuclear weapons, which are designed mostly to be targeted at the enemy interior away from the war front against military bases, cities, towns, arms industries, and other hardened or larger-area targets to damage the enemy's ability to wage war.
---- "Tactical nuclear weapons include gravity bombs, short-range missiles, artillery shells, land mines, depth charges, and torpedoes which are equipped with nuclear warheads. Also in this category are nuclear armed ground-based or shipborne surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and air-to-air missiles."
If we happen to be at the impact end of a conventional weapon, or a nuclear weapon, the effect is probably going to be much the same. We die. What we need to do prior to the anticipated possibility of a conventional or nuclear strike is the same thing, that is to prepare. However, If we are no-where near any possible target, we should simply be prepared to support any civilians or military personnel who may be effected by such a strike.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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We can all be worried about negative possibilities, but where does that take us, or get us. I do not like the expression because it normally seems dismissive, but "it will either happen or it will not". I believe that the question is "do we capitulate or prepare". If we decide not to capitulate or surrender, the other option is to go about our business and take what time is needed to prepare. It is absolutely no good worrying if we do not know what it is about which we are worried.
In order to consider options, we first need to know what it is that we are dealing with. The following extract is from the website:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon
---- "A tactical nuclear weapon (TNW) or non-strategic nuclear weapon (NSNW)[1] is a nuclear weapon which is designed to be used on a battlefield in military situations, mostly with friendly forces in proximity and perhaps even on contested friendly territory. Generally smaller in explosive power, they are defined in contrast to strategic nuclear weapons, which are designed mostly to be targeted at the enemy interior away from the war front against military bases, cities, towns, arms industries, and other hardened or larger-area targets to damage the enemy's ability to wage war.
---- "Tactical nuclear weapons include gravity bombs, short-range missiles, artillery shells, land mines, depth charges, and torpedoes which are equipped with nuclear warheads. Also in this category are nuclear armed ground-based or shipborne surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and air-to-air missiles."
If we happen to be at the impact end of a conventional weapon, or a nuclear weapon, the effect is probably going to be much the same. We die. What we need to do prior to the anticipated possibility of a conventional or nuclear strike is the same thing, that is to prepare. However, If we are no-where near any possible target, we should simply be prepared to support any civilians or military personnel who may be effected by such a strike.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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I am not in agreement with the assessment, that you and others suggest, for the following reasons. There could have been a great deal more death and destruction for Ukrainians.
Rapid End to WAR & Attrition of Military Resources.
There will be no military stalemate or frozen conflict "at close to the current lines". Neither will there be a ceasefire before the RuZZian military and administrative personnel have been ejected from internationally recognised Ukrainian territory. Those who have been charged and found guilty of crimes, including war crimes will be sentenced appropriately for the crimes committed.
The current conference/coalition of nearly 60 countries will continue to support Ukraine until the primary objective has been achieved. There will be no peace in this world until those goals have been achieved and Russia is, in some way, restrained from attacking other countries as it has so regularly done in the recent and distant past.
Many people are saying, "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed". What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is that:
#** February 2022 Russia had nearly 3 times as many tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
Russia 3,400 tanks Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
Russia 990 tanks Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
Russia 2,200 Artillery Ukraine 1,900 Artillery {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 the Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
Russia 773 Artillery Ukraine 1,100 Artillery {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
Russia 1,100 MLRS Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 the numbers of MLRS are:
Russia 354 MLRS Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of significantly more than 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware. That may well have been greater, for Russia, because of their respective levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms being used, and the elements of logistics and supply at that time.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its land-based hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops {VDV, Wagner and others} and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads, bridges and fuel stocks and storages, that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
The figures above do not include the areas where Russia retains superiority; jet fighter air-craft, Tu-95 heavy bombers, ships and submarines in the Black and Caspian Seas. However, since February 2022, Russia has lost; 315 air-craft, 310 helicopters, 18 Ships and boats, including the flagship, Moskva.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
"This {following} list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
Hardware - Russia
Total - 13105, of which: destroyed: 9100, damaged: 570, abandoned: 534, captured: 2901
Tanks - 2485, of which destroyed: 1628, damaged: 140, abandoned: 167, captured: 550
Aircraft - Russia
Total Aircraft - 539, of which: destroyed: 369, damaged: 36, captured: 134
-- including the following piloted aircraft:
Combat Aircraft (82, of which destroyed: 78, damaged: 4)
Strategic Bombers (3, of which destroyed: 1, damaged: 2)
Command And Control Aircraft (2, of which destroyed: 1, damaged: 1)
Transport Aircraft (6, of which destroyed: 5, damaged: 1)
Helicopters (131, of which destroyed: 101, damaged: 28, captured: 2)
Naval Ships and Submarines (19, of which destroyed: 12, damaged: 7)
1 Project 1164 Slava-class guided missile cruiser: (1, Moskva, sunk)
1 Project 22800 Karakurt-class corvette: (1, B-802 'Askold', destroyed)
1 Project 636.3 Improved Kilo-class submarine: (1, B-237 'Rostov-na-Donu', damaged beyond economical repair)
5 Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged)
1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 640 small patrol boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 1171 Tapir-class landing ship: (1, BDK-65 'Saratov', destroyed)
3 Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship: (1, 'Minsk', damaged beyond economical repair) (1, damaged) (2, 'Olenegorsky Gornyak', damaged)
2 Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft: (1, destroyed) (1, damaged)
1 Project 1176 Ondatra-class landing craft: (1, damaged)
1 Project 22870 rescue tug: (1, SB-739 V'asily Bekh', destroyed)
1 Project 266M Natya-class minesweeper: (1, damaged)
Hardware - Ukraine
Total - 4736, of which: destroyed: 3227, damaged: 366, abandoned: 179, captured: 963
Tanks - 697, of which destroyed: 462, damaged: 56, abandoned: 38, captured: 141
Aircraft - Ukraine
Total Aircraft - 325, of which: destroyed: 231, damaged: 4, captured: 73
-- including the following piloted aircraft:
Combat Aircraft - 71, of which destroyed: 70, damaged: 1
Jet Trainers (2, of which destroyed: 2)
Transport Aircraft (4, of which destroyed: 3, captured: 1)
Helicopters (37, of which destroyed: 33, damaged: 1, captured: 3)
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine, Absolute Victory 🇺🇦
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I am so pleased that what you have stated appears to also be realised by an ever increasing number of people in the comments following videos. In this respect, the Russians have been their own worst enemy. They have continued to escalate this WAR, waged by Russia against Ukraine, since 2013-14, starting with the incursions and insurgency into the Donbas region and Crimea { See Igor Girkin/Strelkov Wikipedia article. } and major escalation in February 2022. Because of the continual escalation the Russians have clearly "shown their colours" and the contempt with which they view Ukraine and also, the rest of the Free World.
That insurgency, from 2013-14, was fought in the Donbas by Russian military personnel, supporting the so-called "separatists" { traitors and Russians } who were also responsible for the fomenting of insurrection among the Donbas and Crimean populations.
As you have written, "But what are Ukrainians supposed to do?" The Ukrainians either fight to retain their country and identity, or capitulate to the Russians. If they capitulate, Ukraine would, most likely, cease to exist as a country with any recognisable national identity. They would then be subjugated, subordinated, diminished and dominated by the callous and vindictive Russian political and military establishment, as the Russians have amply demonstrated themselves to be.
💙💛 🇺🇦 💛💙
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Rapid End to WAR & Attrition of Military Resources.
There will be no military stalemate or frozen conflict "at close to the current lines". Neither will there be a ceasefire before the RuZZian military and administrative personnel have been ejected from internationally recognised Ukrainian territory. Those who have been charged and found guilty of crimes, including war crimes will be tried and sentenced appropriately for the crimes committed.
The current conference/coalition of nearly 60 countries will continue to support Ukraine until the primary objective has been achieved. There will be no peace in this world until those goals have been achieved and Russia is, in some way, restrained from attacking other countries.
Many people are saying, "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed". What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is that:
#** February 2022 Russia had nearly 3 times as many tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
Russia 3,400 tanks Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
Russia 990 tanks Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
Russia 2,200 Artillery Ukraine 1,900 Artillery {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 the Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
Russia 773 Artillery Ukraine 1,100 Artillery {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
Russia 1,100 MLRS Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the numbers of MLRS are:
Russia 354 MLRS Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of significantly more than 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware and trained personnel. That may well have been greater, for Russia, because of respective levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms being used, and the elements of logistics and supply. Had the WAR been fought more quickly, before Ukrainian troops had been provided the required training on NATO weapons, and then the weapons supplied, the WAR, waged by Russia against Ukraine, may have been "hotter". This would likely have resulted in a far greater number of lives lost, of civilian and military personnel and even greater devastation. And despite greater loss of lives, Ukraine may have lost the WAR to Russia, already.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in most, if not all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its land-based hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads, bridges, fuel stocks and storages, that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
This list {24 Feb 2022 to 10 Oct 2023}, only includes {confirmed} destroyed {military hardware}, vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here.
Russia
Total - 13,728, of which: destroyed: 9,581, damaged: 621, abandoned: 622, captured: 2,904
Tanks - 2,607, of which destroyed: 1,713, damaged: 145, abandoned: 205, captured: 544
Ukraine
Total - 4,969, of which: destroyed: 3,418, damaged: 398, abandoned: 197, captured: 956
Tanks - 731, of which destroyed: 492, damaged: 58, abandoned: 49, captured: 132
Aircraft Losses
Russia:
Total - 539, of which: destroyed: 369, damaged: 36, captured: 134
Piloted aircraft fixed wing and rotary wing:
Combat Aircraft (82, of which destroyed: 78, damaged: 4)
Strategic Bombers (3, of which destroyed: 1, damaged: 2)
Command And C
ontrol Aircraft (2, of which destroyed: 1, damaged: 1)
Transport Aircraft (6, of which destroyed: 5, damaged: 1)
Helicopters (131, of which destroyed: 101, damaged: 28, captured: 2)
Ukraine:
Total - 325, of which: destroyed: 231, damaged: 4, captured: 73
Piloted aircraft fixed wing and rotary wing:
Combat Aircraft (71, of which destroyed: 70, damaged: 1)
Jet Trainers (2, of which destroyed: 2)
Transport Aircraft (4, of which destroyed: 3, captured: 1)
Helicopters (37, of which destroyed: 33, damaged: 1, captured: 3)
Russian Naval Ships and Submarine (27, of which destroyed: 13, damaged: 7, unidentified: 7)
1 Project 1164 Slava-class guided missile cruiser: (1, Moskva, sunk)
1 Project 22800 Karakurt-class corvette: (1, B-802 'Askold', destroyed)
1 Project 636.3 Improved Kilo-class submarine: (1, B-237 'Rostov-na-Donu', damaged beyond economical repair)
5 Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged)
1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 640 small patrol boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 1171 Tapir-class landing ship: (1, BDK-65 'Saratov', destroyed)
4 Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship: (1, 'Minsk', damaged beyond economical repair) (2, 'Novocherkassk', destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, 'Olenegorsky Gornyak', damaged)
2 Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft: (1, destroyed) (1, damaged)
1 Project 1176 Ondatra-class landing craft: (1, damaged)
1 Project 22870 rescue tug: (1, SB-739 V'asily Bekh', destroyed)
1 Project 266M Natya-class minesweeper: (1, damaged)
7 unidentified
The figures above do not include the areas where Russia retains superiority; jet fighter air-craft, Su-95 heavy bombers, ships and submarines in the Black and Caspian Seas. However, since February 2022, Russia has lost; 315 air-craft, 310 helicopters, 27 Ships and boats, including the flagship, Moskva.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
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Rapid End to WAR & Attrition of Military Resources.
There will be no military stalemate or frozen conflict "at close to the current lines". Neither will there be a ceasefire before the RuZZian military and administrative personnel have been ejected from internationally recognised Ukrainian territory. Those who have been charged and found guilty of crimes, including war crimes will be sentenced appropriately for the crimes committed.
The current conference/coalition of nearly 60 countries will continue to support Ukraine until the primary objective has been achieved. There will be no peace in this world until those goals have been achieved and Russia is, in some way, restrained from attacking other countries.
Many people are saying, "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed". What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is that:
#** February 2022 Russia had nearly 3 times as many tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
Russia 3,400 tanks Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
Russia 990 tanks Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
Russia 2,200 Artillery Ukraine 1,900 Artillery {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
Russia 773 Artillery Ukraine 1,100 Artillery {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
Russia 1,100 MLRS Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the numbers of MLRS are:
Russia 354 MLRS Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of nearly 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware. That may well have been greater, for Russia, because of respective levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms being used, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its land-based hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads, bridges and fuel stocks and storages, that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
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@zorankalina4399 Zoran, this is a response / reply that I wrote to another person. It is a statement of my thoughts about and for Ukraine in this WAR waged by Russia. It seems that you and I are in the upper age bracket. I am just over 70 yrears. We have seen a lot in nearly 100 years.
@Ed S In response to your comment:
{"I agree totally that a deal made with Russia is probably worthless. But you can't truly win me over until you offer a better solution. Fewer people would die if Ukr gave up right now, and another day of sweet sweet life is so precious, you would beg for it, even if it is "Russia."}
"....... another day of sweet sweet life is so precious, you would beg for it, even if it is "Russia."
PNH 6000: I don't believe so. Each person fights with a sense of pride and dignity, for their nation, not for themselves. They contribute in whatever they can in the most approprriate way that they can. That may be fighting on the front line, working an administrative role, working at repair and maintenance and, at the risk of sounding sexist, for the women to take the children to safety so that there remains a nation for which to fight.
And that is exactly what we have seen. It is a sign of weakness to capitulate, for another miserable day of life under an oppressive regime.
Why capitulate to an aggressor that has shown their true colours? Why be dominated by a nation that treats you as a mere chattel?
Something to be used, abused and discarded? This is how the Russians have treated the Ukranians.
The Russians have shown themselves, at their top echelons and at the fighting front, to be liars, cheats, murderers and thieves. Why would any nation of proud and strong people lay down their arms to such vaccuous agents of death and their quizzlings.
🙂🍀👍🌞👋I hope that you will not mind me using your grahics.
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@zorankalina4399 Hello Zoran. Firstly, please do not apologise for your English. I only speak one language, so you are more advanced than I am in language knowledge and use.
I understand your concern about people of younger generations, who probably have not experienced the national upheavals caused by war. While I say that I am conscious that people in your country did experience such disruption during the period from 1991 -1995.
In the type of work that I have done, I have had a lot to do with young people. There are times when I have been concerned about their behaviour and activities. However, in general, I have a strong faith in their resilience and capacity to deal with future events. That applies to young people in my own country and other countries also.
The values with which I was brought up were the consequence of two world wars, each before and after the severe worldwide economic depression between 1929 and 1939.
I would be very pleased if the young people of today would be spared those experiences. However, I can understand the concern and, to some degree, the fear that the present conflict in Ukraine has on other countries in Europe. Also, I fear for the welfare and opportunities for guidance for the young people of Ukraine.
A Quote from the website:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-02/russia-invasion-of-ukraine-changes-the-european-order/100872828
"The invasion of Ukraine has shaken the complacency felt by many Europeans who are witnessing war on the continent in a way many thought had been confined to history — and the impacts will be long-lasting."
I was aware of the drone that crashed in Croatia's capital, Zagreb on March 10. I understand that it crashed near a university and in an area of relatively high population. It is certainly very fortunate that, as I understand, there were no casualties or injuries sustained, though nearly 100 cars were damaged.
The Russian population, from the reports that I know of, have been given a very different idea about what is happening in Ukraine, by their government and military. Some people are aware of what is happening, and have been prepared to protest against what they believe to be unjust, in spite of police action and as you say, "strict and heavy control". Many of the protestors have been young people. I would imagine that there is significant concern, by Russians, for relatives and friends in Ukraine.
For now, Best Wishes, PNH
✌👍🖼🍀
P.S. If you would like to reply in your own language, I can use the computer translator.
However, I hope that I have understood what you have written correctly.
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I have followed your YouTube presentations on the WAR waged by Russia against Ukraine since early last year Jake. I extend my thaks and appreciation for thevery clear insights and perspectives that you have offered.
Here is a 'hypothetical scenario' that I have written about the possible outcome of Russia's WAR waged against Ukraine:
The Russians may have massive underground or 'in the side of mountain' caches, like other countries, such as Iran are said to have, of military and air-force weapons that they have accumulated over the previous recent years. It may be intended to bring this military hardware out at the "last minute" and spring a very unpleasant surprise. While I do not believe this is necessarily so, I believe that, at least, some attention must be given to the possibility, so that if the trap is sprung by the Russians, the Ukrainian military and their supporters will be adequately prepared.
I most certainly hope that the Russians are reduced now, to using older, almost antiquated weapons and transport, such as post 2nd WW T55 and T54 tanks. However, I find it difficult to believe that Russia would have allowed their weapon stocks to be reduced to that level. That is particularly so, when the one area that the Russians should, in reality {not their imaginations}, be least concerned about is the defensive alliance of countries in NATO. Surely, simple logic would not have allowed them to rely, as a last resort, on their nuclear weapons. That should be especially so, given that if any of the Russian nuclear weapons were to be fired, Russian targets will receive a barrage by conventional weapons, that will annihilate the targets at which they would be fired. That would occur before the US, the UK, France, Germany or any other country fired any of their nuclear weapons.
As I was thinking about the possibility of Russia ending up requesting NATO for assistance in their defence, another possibility occurred to me. Such a situation could occur if, about ten years ago, Russia decided that taking Ukraine was an all or nothing gambit. They realised that their oil and gas was only going to be a profitable market commodity for a limited number of years, given the push to "go green". So with an ever decreasing income, ageing manufacturing capacity and limited sea ports for distribution of their products, the acquisition of Ukraine, with its population, resources and the means of distributing products by sea, might have seemed to be a way of solving the Russian dilemma. This situation would mean that they could attempt to take Ukraine and, if unsuccessful, could throw themselves on the mercy of what they refer to as the "west" which I prefer to call the "western aligned nations" or "free world" {More inclusive}.
In the situation that I have outlined, the Russians could step, militarily, right up to the point of using nuclear weapons. They would know that there would be no chance of other countries striking their territory, as has been demonstrated in this WAR. They would also feel safe and assured that no nuclear weapons would be fired unless the Russians did so pre-emptively. At the point where they saw that their weapons had been exhausted and their bluff, in terms of a nuclear weapons attack, had been "called", they would then have to concede defeat and rely on the "free world" for their protection. The Russians would also know that the "free world" would not want to see the uncontrolled collapse of the Russian Federation. The countries of the “free world” would then, in some ways, feel bound by their own concerns to support Russia. This could be accomplished by something akin to the "Marshall Plan" that was instituted, in Europe, following the second world war. In this way, the "free world" also has a positive outcome. However, during the time up until Russia's success {which I do not believe will happen} or defeat, Ukraine will have had to endure the agonies of war.
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Hi Alexandra, I agree with you, wholeheartedly, about the other site, called 'Redacted', that you mentioned. You described exactly how I also perceived their presentation. There is, I believe, a lot of false information "pushed out" by those presenters, with their cool, very slick style. They often make the people in our communities, whose actions and statements we may abhor, look positively benign. I ensure that I offer nothing on their sites that may make their site more appealing or give them any recognition.
The following sites, from each of which I have extracted the 1st and/or 2nd paragraph, give an indication of the depth of the misinformation problem and parts of the sources from which they are projected into various media outlets. Considering Jake's situation, it is amasing that some of these are given "air time": {some may, or may not be surprising}
https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxneb4/ukraine-patrick-lancaster-journalist
---- by David Gilbert 09 June 2022, 11:06pm
“Unraveling viral disinformation and explaining where it came from, the harm it's causing, and what we should do about it." See More → {A link on the right hand side of the site offers more information and suggestions.}
"Patrick Lancaster seems to have a knack for being in the right place at the right time.
In February, on the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Lancaster seemed to be first on the scene to report that three Russian civilians had been killed when Ukrainian forces set off an improvised explosive device (IED) along the country's eastern border with Russia.”
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/942097830834995203?lang=en
---- Glasnost Gone @GlasnostGone Dec 17, 2017·Twitter Web Client
Russia's (man) in the #Donbas, Patrick Lancaster now in panic mode. Realises planting 52 bone fragments from #MH17 victims under a small stone was about as realistic as Trump stopping tweeting. So the excuse is, someone put them there. And their right, it was PATRICK LANCASTER.
---- Glasnost Gone @GlasnostGone Dec 17, 2017
If Russia's paid propagandists, like Patrick Lancaster using bones from the 298 people killed by Russia, reminds you of US cops, then U need medication. This on-going perverted scam of using #MH17 victims remains to attack official crash investigation, is in a league of its own.
---- Bob Deed @BobDeed Dec 17, 2017 Replying to @GlasnostGone
Until this week I'd not heard of the Kremlin propagandist Patrick Lancaster in #Ukraine's Donbas. Interesting expose from @SamBright_Ltd on
@BBCtrending of Lancaster and his ilk
---- Glasnost Gone @GlasnostGone Dec 17, 2017
In 2014/15 Patrick Lancaster was Graham Phillips camera man/bitch. Like Phillips, in 2016/17 he's now employed by Zvezda, Russia's Military news agency. Works as part of a Russian led military media team in occupied #Ukraine. #Donbas
https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-40647061
---- By Sam Bright BBC Trending 24 July 2017
"Charity donation websites, often used to support victims of violence, are being employed by a number of Westerners to finance their personal war efforts.
Fighting continues in eastern Ukraine, as pro-Russian separatists battle Ukrainian government forces. More than 10,000 people have died since the conflict erupted in April 2014, and recently a rebel leader declared a state called "Malorossiya" (Little Russia) in Donetsk.
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/russian-propaganda-efforts-aided-kremlin-content-creators-research-fin-rcna32343
---- Brandy Zadrozny June 9, 2022·5 min read
"A small network of (western) pro-Kremlin content creators have seen their audiences grow dramatically in recent months while spreading disinformation about the war in Ukraine, evading social media platforms’ efforts to curb Russian propaganda and paving a path to Western audiences, according to research published Wednesday.
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-03-04/ukraine-russia-propaganda-putin-kremlin"
“As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine escalates, the Kremlin is fighting off another perceived threat at home: the truth about the war. With the casualty count mounting in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin is trying to keep the public in the dark.”
++++ Yet there are still some very courageous people who are prepared to state the truth as they see it, in spite of putting themselves at significant risk of severe penalties.
https://www.businessinsider.com/lenta-russian-journalists-anti-war-articles-pro-kremlin-news-site-2022-5
---- "Two Russian journalists working for the popular pro-Kremlin news site Lenta.Ru flooded the outlet's home page on Monday with dozens of headlines criticizing President Vladimir Putin and Russia's invasion of Ukraine."
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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I generally agree with and have supported your comment.
However, by using unidentified pronouns and expressions such as we, "people like me", "you know what happens", "our left", I am not even sure of which country you are from or speaking for. The references, "we have AFD and BSW now" and "your left wing Dem's", appear to indicate, to me, that you are from Germany and referring to the US. However, for those reasons, the meaning of your comment seems to be somewhat blurred and obscure.
I am Australian and the political references to left and right are somewhat different here, from the way they are used in the US and Europe. While we do have extremes, they are nowhere near as apparent or imposed on the wider population and bold, as appears to be the case in the US and even in Europe. There is generally a greater preparedness, in Australia, to negotiate positions and outcomes, than to have correct or incorrect, right or wrong points of view, than appears to be the case in the US and, to a lesser extent, in Europe.
{P.S. I hope that my message is clear and understandable}
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Your observation about the problems of transportation of gas from Russia to India and China appears to be well founded. Given the virtually guaranteed sale of RuZZian gas and oil to Europe through existing infrastructure, for at least the next decade, even until Ukrainian gas would be in production, it is difficult to understand what financial benefit RuZZia would seem to have gained by invading Ukraine and waging WAR against them.
As other commenters have already said, it seems to be a case that is analogous to the bully wanting someone else's sweets or the spoilt child {RuZZia already known to be rich in land and resources} wanting what the other child has and thinking that they have the unchallenged right to take what they want.
My understanding is, while India and China may have a significant and increasing need for gas and oil, that the building of pipelines for transfer of the products will be major engineering undertakings that will take many years. And there would seem to be other political and military issues to deal with as well.
Another intersting aspect for consideration is that RuZZia was quite happy to undertake and complete major gas and oil piplines to European countries, in order to trade oil and gas, yet claim to be afraid of the supposed Big Bad Wolf that is the defensive NATO alliance. The validity of that reasoning has been shown to be absurd during RuZZia's WAR against Ukraine. Now Big, Bad, Tough Poo-tin and the Big, Bad, Tough Moscow menagerie want to hide behind the petti-coats and hang on to the apron-strings of their smaller sister, Ukraine.
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That proposition has been made. But, while he may be Machiavellian, guileful, deceitful, double-dealing, cunning, manipulative, devious and malevolent, among other negative attributes, I do not believe that tRumpf has shown the intelligence to play more complex games, than the like of "snakes and ladders".
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As another Australian, I believe that you should leave the American politics to US citizens such as Jake. And, I certainly believe that your views are not held by the majority of informed Australians. Unless you have credible studies, knowledge and qualifications in international and, or US politics.
Someone has to offer a sound analysis of the US political situation. Jake is the reason that I came, with my interest in Ukraine, to an expanded interest in US politics.
It is interesting to note that even Fox News is questioning statements and actions of trump, musk, members of the "MAGA" cult, and also, members of the Republican Party.
Jake who (in another commenter's words) :) Geologist, military knowledge and experience, Korean speaking - and empathy :) All adding up to your (his) very informative videos.
♥ 🇺🇸 🤍 🌷 💚 🇦🇺 💛
💙 🦘
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Looking at the references in my reply to Ross Tessien comment, directly above, will give some in-sight into how the Poo-tin and the Russian political and military establishment and their armed military forces operate.
From the website: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/sanctions-against-russia-explained/
---- "Why has the EU suspended the broadcasting of five Russian outlets?
"The Russian Federation has engaged in a systematic, international campaign of disinformation, information manipulation and distortion of facts in order to enhance its strategy of destabilising both its neighbouring countries and the EU and its member states.
A journalist presents news on television. He has the logo of Russia Today projected on the screen behind him.
"The broadcasting in the EU of five Russian state-owned outlets is suspended - © AFP
To counteract this, the EU has suspended the broadcasting activities in the EU of five Russian state-owned outlets:
Sputnik
Russia Today
Rossiya RTR/RTR Planeta
Rossiya 24/Russia 24
TV Centre International
Russia uses all these state-owned outlets to intentionally spread propaganda and conduct disinformation campaigns, including about its military aggression against Ukraine.
"The restrictions against Sputnik and Russia Today (together with their subsidiaries, such as RT English, RT Germany, RT France and RT Spanish) have been in place since 2 March 2022. The restrictions on the other three entities have been in place as of 4 June 2022.
"They cover all means of transmission and distribution in or directed at the EU member states, including cable, satellite, Internet Protocol TV, platforms, websites and apps.
"In line with the Charter of Fundamental Rights, these measures will not prevent those media outlets and their staff from carrying out activities in the EU other than broadcasting, e.g. research and interviews.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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I believe that your observations about the possible loss of respect for the Free World are reasonable. However, I believe that the circumstances for that to occur will not be allowed to eventuate. Fear of failure or the possibility of "looking like prats" should not cause us to lose perspective, in terms of timing, resources or objectives. As I have said in other posts, had the Ukrainians mounted a massive offensive 12 or 18 months ago, they would have faced overwhelming odds in terms of TerroRussian numbers of military personnel, hardware and equipment. I do not share your scepticism.
The Russians, in the last 18 months, have lost for their use; 252,200 Military personnel; 315 Aircraft; 313 Helicopters; 4278 Tanks; 8303 Armoured Combat Vehicles; 5028 Artillery Systems; 469 Air Defence Systems; 711 Multiple Rocket Launchers; 7495 Vehicles and Fuel Tankers; 18 Ships and Boats; 4179 Tactical unmanned aircraft; 1,377 Cruise Missiles; 746 Special vehicles and other equipment.
That is compared to far fewer losses of Ukrainian hardware and equipment. Indeed, it is said that the TerroRussians have been among the greatest contributors of tanks to the Ukrainian military, through capture by Ukrainians. And the losses to the Russians are accruing at a far greater rate than the losses to Ukrainians. Web-Search "Losses of hardware in Ukraine". On the Oryx website, confirmed losses for Russia and Ukraine are identified individually. You may find it interesting. The listing provides totals at the start of each item of hardware listed followed by a record of every identified vehicle or piece of hardware, in categories similar to {but not the same as} those shown above.
🇺🇦 Victoy for Ukraine 🇺🇦 🇺🇦 Real Peace, Not Appeasement 🇺🇦
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I hope that, through enlightenment, the Russian people will be equally distressed, angry and prepared to seek retribution against the political perpetrators and guilty members of the Nazi Russian regime and army. Most particularly those in the upper echelons and war criminals. All this, I hope, will be the response when the Russian people come to know of the inhuman dislocations, homelessness, destitution, desolation, death and destruction imposed by their own army on a neighbouring country, where many of the population are family; brothers, sisters, parents, grand parents and children. These thoughts, combined with the grief associated with their own losses.
But was there any upwelling of anger at similar treatment meted out against Grozny in CHECHNYA, described at the following site:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1994%E2%80%931995)
"The initial assault resulted in considerable Russian casualties and demoralization in the Russian forces. It took another two months of heavy fighting, and a change in tactics, before the Russian Army was able to capture Grozny. The battle caused enormous destruction and casualties amongst the civilian population and saw the heaviest bombing campaign in Europe since the end of World War II.[9]"
or GEORGIA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War
The 2008 Russo-Georgian War[note 3] was a war between Georgia, on one side, and Russia and the Russian-backed self-proclaimed republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, on the other. The war took place in August following a period of worsening relations between Russia and Georgia, both formerly constituent republics of the Soviet Union. The fighting took place in the strategically important South Caucasus region. It is regarded as the first European war of the 21st century.[3
and now UKRAINE. The descriptions are SICKENINGLY SIMILAR
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-what-is-the-budapest-memorandum-and-why-has-russias-invasion-torn-it-up-178184
"The unfolding invasion of Ukraine will have far-reaching repercussions that extend way beyond a breach of international law and a violation of the country’s territorial integrity. As American international relations expert David Yost notes, Russia’s actions will weaken the credibility of major power security assurances, undermine the nuclear nonproliferation regime and dampen prospects for future disarmament.
"Putin’s decision to invade is in direct violation of the Budapest Memorandum, a key instrument assuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The memorandum was struck in 1994, following lengthy and complicated negotiations involving the then Russian president Boris Yeltsin, Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma, US president Bill Clinton and the then British prime minister John Major."
These stories have too great a similarity to the current situation in Ukraine. Will nothing come of these events and attacks on civil society, when the Russian people come to know of the inhuman dislocations, homelessness, destitution, desolation, death and destruction imposed by their own army on neighbouring countries and, in particular Ukraine right now, by Russia?
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No. I don't believe that you are correct. There is no 'free energy'. It would just mean that all the energy currency, of each nation, would have accumulated according to where the production of the means of producing the energy was manufactured.
A unit of energy, in whatever form it is produced and distributed, will be made available to the consumer at a specific price. The unit of energy may be obtained by the use of hot springs (in the arctic region and New Zealand), a measure of petrol, a measure of gas, a quantity of water flowing through a turbine, an array of solar panels, etc. Converting energy into a usable form, such as electricity, is what costs the money. That being the case, natural gas and oil should, once the well has been tapped and pipeline laid, be among the cheapest forms in which energy is made available.
I believe that, whoever, in the future, has the design function and then access to the manufacturing capacity of the means of producing electrical energy will accumulate the most "energy currency". That is, assuming that electrical energy becomes the preferred form in which energy is produced and distributed.
However, oil, gas and coal will still be required for manufacturing plastics, fertilisers, steel etc. However, if the cost of extracting these resources increases because of lower volumes required, the price of these items in the form of manufactured commodities will increase.
So, consequently, I do not believe that the uptake of the "climate change concept", 20 years, 50 years ago, or in the future, would have fundamentally changed the overall cost of production and distribution of energy. It may have changed the locations in which that "energy currency" was accumulated. But I don't think that it would have significantly changed the net worth of energy.
There would always be reasons for waging war. The capacity to wage war is not always connected with the reasons. Furthermore, we cannot impoverish countries to simply prevent them from waging war. But maybe we can influence their priorities in how they use the income that they generate. {Pun intended}
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@hg6996
Hello Hermann,
I do hear you about climate and the effects that human endeavour can have with regard to changes and variations. Though I am interested in the discussion, I have, unfortunately, little knowledge about the issues and their underlying factors. Though at the same time I do recognise certain conditions when referred to or described.
Even as a child, I was concerned about the expansion of the population on Earth and its capacity to carry the load. However, as indicated by the present situation in Ukraine, it is probably not the Earth about which we should be concerned, but our fellow creatures.
I, like you, am in the upper years, with about a score more than your age, so I also will not be around to witness the possible cataclysmic events. I guess I am rather more optimistic about the future, while I am here and afterwards. I trust that, given the odds, what I have not been able to accomplish or had the opportunity to do in my own life, a child, grandchild or even great grandchild may have the pleasure and satisfaction of producing and providing at some time in the future. That is not for me to know.
For the rest of the time, it is for me to live as best I can and contribute that for which I still have capacity.
I did look at a reference to Svante Arrhenius at the website: https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/science/leading-figures/svante-arrhenius-the-man-who-foresaw-climate-change/
and will keep it open to read tomorrow.
For now though, I should say goodnight, since it is nearly three after midnight. I will keep my eye open to notice if you post comments to which I may be able to respond.
With Best Wishes to You and the People for Whom You Care, PNH
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Absolutely agreed and supported. Though I would not deny Israel support, I offer the following details for consideration and to balance the merits of support for each country.
Ukraine was militarily emasculated {neutered} by the Russians between the time of Ukraine's Independence in 1991 and the signing of the Russian - Ukraine Friendship Treaty in 1997. Most of Ukraine's military hardware was transferred to Russia under the provisions of these agreements and the Budapest Memorandum of 1994. In return Russia declared recognition of Ukraine's sovereignty and internationally recognised borders.
Russia also, under the provisions of the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, and in conjunction with the UK and the US, declared that they would assist and support Ukraine if Ukraine were to be attacked by any other country. Consequently, with these promises and assurances, Ukraine was {apparently} assured of their continued security and protection. Ukraine could concentrate on building on the country's resources and improving their infrastructure, including health and education services. Putin was a party to and signatory to each of these agreements.
Russia, as we are aware, attacked Ukraine by mounting an insurgency, fomenting insurrection and, with Russian forces and military hardware and equipment, captured Crimea and waged WAR on Ukraine in the Donbas region in 2014. Much, if not all of the military hardware transferred to Russia, including the Tu-95 heavy bombers, has since been used against Ukraine, up to and since Russia's further full-scale invasion in February 2022. This, despite the Russian political, military and media establishment declaring that their intention was to demilitarise Ukraine.
What a farce, as are all the other reasons presented by Russia for their WAR waged against Ukraine.
As a result of the agreements between 1991 and 1997, Ukraine was left essentially defenceless, in terms of military hardware and equipment. Ukraine had a skeleton army, navy and air-force with which to mount a defence. Some of their military personnel had been trained to NATO Defensive Alliance standards since 2014. Ukraine had a few soviet era tanks, a relatively small number of planes and helicopters, and some anti-tank weapons that are carried and fired by infantry personnel.
These are the reasons, to defend their country, Ukraine has required the support of the UK and the US, in accordance with the assurances given under the Budapest Memorandum, the other NATO Defensive Alliance member countries, and about 30 additional countries that share similar principles and values that Ukraine has already demonstrated and aspires to continue building as part of their nationhood.
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#judithbradford9130 and interested others. "Judith", I believe that you are looking at the conduct of military activity only from the point of view of "winning and speed" However, excessive speed can be far more costly, particularly in terms of Ukrainian lives lost, than constant and consistent attrition over a measured period of time.
Reasons for "Considered, Measured and Proportional Response."
There is, effectively, a conference/coalition of countries of which the UK, the US; in accordance with their commitments made under the provisions of the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine of course, Poland, Germany, and more than 50 other countries, are members. The decisions made are arrived at by consensus among the participating countries, with Ukraine having the deciding voice. One of the issues that appears to have been clear is the concept of "Considered, Measured and Proportional Response".
Issues to be considered in the provision of hardware and resources are logistics, supply lines, facilities for repair - {Repairing tanks is not like taking the SUV to the local repairer for brake disc and pad replacement}, combinations of other support vehicles and even aircraft; consideration of how the hardware is to be used and, probably most important of all, adequate training and experience for the personnel who will be operating the hardware and equipment.
While I acknowledge and understand the frustration that millions of people are experiencing, the consequences of escalating beyond what is referred to as a "measured and proportional response", may be even greater devastation and hardship for Ukrainians than they are already experiencing.
Such a possibility may be difficult to conceive, but Ukraine would be the first likely target if the RuZZians decided to really test the resolve of the "west" or "free world". We have all seen the methods and "style" of the Russians in action. And, if the RuZZians, in response to an early, overwhelming show of force by Ukraine and the supporting countries, were to fire a small number of tactical nuclear weapons against the major Western cities of Ukraine, I leave it to you to web-search information about the possible consequences. By design, the Russians have not been faced with, or had to respond to an immediate and apparently overwhelming force.
The article, in the web periodical "The Atlantic" titled as in the quotation marks below, provides some details on what the response, by western nations, but specifically by the US, to the firing of a nuclear weapon by RuZZia would be. You may wish to read and consider the details, as the possibilities concern us all.
"What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine? A look at the grim scenarios—and the U.S. playbook for each"
By Eric Schlosser June 20, 2022 {Web-search the title to access the article}
{RuZZia refers to the RuZZian Nazi-Fascist style regime that appears to be acting against the interests of their own population and those of other countries, particularly Ukraine at the present time.}
====== Russian Nuclear Weapons Targets.======
Russia, through Putin and others, claims that it has numerous city targets around the world that it can attack with nuclear weapons. We are constanly being reminded of and threatened with such possibilities by the likes of Skabeyeva, Simonyan and Solovyov. Their utterances can be viewed, with English subtitles, on the "Russian Media Monitor" YouTube videos.
However, the "Achilles' heel" for Russia, particularly because of the immense size of the country, is that there are only two cities to target, Moscow and St. Petersburg. If both of those cities were to be annihilated, it would decimate the Russian Federation. The country and entity, currently identified as the Russian Federation, would simply revert to being controlled by the ethnic and national identities and groups, of which the current federation is comprised.
Then Putin, if he survived and could find a horse, would need it to help him hunt for food. His capacity to exercise power would no longer exist, except in a very limited region, and he would be the focus of recrimination and responsibility for the devastation that would have been exacted on Russia, with western conventional weapons, because of the Russian pre-emptive nuclear strike. The "west" are most UN-Likely to respond with nuclear weapons, but neither would they need to.
Putin would have to be aware of the high probability of this outcome, which would very likely be the only reason that would matter to him.
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@celestialdragon3989 Thank you very much for your response. I do appreciate the sentiments that you have expressed and am really on your side.
I believe, as I am sure you do also, that Jake endeavours to cover a good deal of "territory" in his videos. Inevitably, we all add a little too much of one thing or too little of another in our discussions. Probably, my concern was that Jake's videos not be just viewed from the perspective of one element. You have acknowledged that already, by saying that you've "unsubbed from creators for lots less!"
In noting that, I also acknowledge and share the value of the sentiments and strong feelings that you have included in both your comments. People who cannot give common courtesies in the conduct of their interactions and representations are anathema to me. Those people to whom you have referred are among them.
You have used a number of words describing attitudes and behaviour that I also abhor, being; insurrection, traitorous, Russian and Trump loving people who we may refer to as backwards, spreading hatred, stealing elections and threatening our democracies in attempts to emulate Russia or the political structure of any other autocratically "governed" country {contradiction in terms}.
With mutually recognised support for the values and principles that we both believe are important for the maintenance of our political, economic, cultural and social structues within our families, communities, cities and countries.
Best Wishes, PNH
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@marresjepie1887
I agree Marre. A great deal is happening for and with people from different regions who should not be involved. For such people and their families I have a considerable degree of sympathy.
The RuZZians are using the quisling separatists in the Donbas in the same way, being what I might consider just reward for traitorous, treasonous, seditious activities and aiding and abetting the enemy, that they have participated in during the last eight years. The separatists have worked in conjunction with the RuZZian regular military forces that have been active with the separatists since RuZZia initiated the movement and unrest.
RuZZia used the civil unrest in 2013/2014 which lead to the Revolution of Dignity * (see below) as reason for generating the separatist movement in favour of Russian interests. Unfortunately the RuZZian military and separatists make no distinction between separatists and Ukrainian citizens when they have mobilised for the purpose of increasing troop numbers.
I do feel a great deal of sympathy for such people, who had not been involved in the separatist activities, and their families. Neither will any of these people be recorded in the RuZZian casualty and fatality lists, since they are not considered members of the RuZZian military forces.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_of_Dignity * The Revolution of Dignity(Ukrainian: Революція гідності, romanized: Revoliutsiia hidnosti, Russian: Революция Достоинства, romanized: Revolyutsiya Dostoinstva) also known as the Maidan Revolution or the Ukrainian Revolution,[2] took place in Ukraine in February 2014[2][1] at the end of the Euromaidan protests,[1] when deadly clashes between protesters and the security forces in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv culminated in the ousting of elected President Viktor Yanukovych, the overthrow of the Ukrainian government, and the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War.[1][2].
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I listened and watched a previous podcast, where you said that russian propaganda is poisoning our elections, not only in the UK or the US but across Europe and recently in Moldova. russian disinformation is not only killing democracy, it's killing the russian people, who think, because of that propaganda, "UKRAINIANS ARE NAZI, WHO STARTED THE WAR, AND MUST BE STOPPED, LUDICROUS IDEAS THAT HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO PROSPER", because of russian propaganda and interference. I refute the ideas distributed by the russians. Sure, we must have our own opinions and be able to discuss differences, but to have russia force-feed their lies down our throats is against the freedoms I believe in. The same applies to propaganda and interference by DPRK (north korea) and china. Nobody wants an @££-whole in charge, least of all trump, zero musk or PUTRID.
I totally agree with the sentiments you have expressed and have supported your comment.
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Your comment does not correlate with what Jake has been saying during the WAR, waged by Russia against Ukraine. It is not Jake who needs to "wake up", but the people in the US government who, despite assurances and commitments made by the US, are preventing the US from honouring those assurances and fullfilling their commitments. As a consequence, the sovereignty and freedom of Ukraine is at risk of being lost. In addition to those possible outcomes, there is increased threat to the sovereignty and freedom of other European countries and, by extention, the interests of the US.
"Wake up" is an expression that should adjured to specific members of the US political establishment. These people are, by attempting to gain a nominal political advantage in one issue, are going to create a much higher cost for the people of the US in general, and also for other countries with which the US claim to be both friends and allies.
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With regard to the following videos such as those excellent presentations by Jake Broe, Denys Davydov, Anders Puck Nielsen, Anna from Ukraine, STG "Ukraine War" {and other significant topics, presented by STG Director, Prof Alexander Stubb}, Vlad Vexler, The Russian Dude, Ukraine News TV, and many others;
Do our comments add any value, at all, to the offense against the Russian economic, political and military structure ?
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Hello John Carroll.
You and I are in the same position regarding knowledge of military tactics and presumably, of the legal implications of any acquisition of the land belonging to another country, however, you have summarised the situation as I also see it. The "conquered land" is just a piece of material which still has value to the original occupants, Ukraine, and is likely to continue to be contested. The land may be of economic value to Russia, because of its valuable resources, but Russia is going to continue to be the occupier, not the owner.
A legal issue that has I have recently seen raised by Brad Slowgrove, appears to be significant, a part of which, in his words follows:
"Putin's problem is that international law e.g the Nuremberg Charter and its modern offspring is in a much more developed state in 2022 than it was at the time of Imperial Russia. The result is only two options for Putin, death and life imprisonment after global humiliation. No peace treaty can bind Ukraine if it cedes territory to Russia as a result of a criminal war of aggression no matter how many diplomatic documents Ukraine signs see e.g. article 53 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties while noting the Nuremberg Charter and its offspring are all preemptory ( ius cogens) norms of international law. Criminal wars of aggression are rare not common and there have only been 3 others and none have ended in a peace treaty especially one where the victim state cedes territory to the aggressor state. Russia must go back as Henry Kissinger said to " the status quo ante" which is the 2014 boundaries because although these boundaries are not legal they are not the result of a criminal war of aggression.Russia will not go back to the " status quo ante" without a secret deal to gain extra territory of Ukraine so this too will be struck down by the preemptory norms and the treaty ceding the territory void and not binding on Ukraine that can take the benefits of Russian withdrawal and legally continue the war to protect all its territory as a lawful ruse of war since it is not a " white flag" of surrender in a combat theatre. Kissinger was unbelievably misrepresented by the stupid media that have been out of tune with what was possible in this war from the outset. Any compromise of the Nuremberg Charter which would require virtually unanimous global support would be the greatest disaster for the future of the world ever. The Soviet Union was one of its creators and always obeyed the Nuremberg Charter so did Mao's China."
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I am sorry that is what you believe. I disagree, and here is why. The statement is a little long, but I cannot offer a reasonable response in just two or three lines.
Rapid End to WAR & Attrition of Military Resources.
There will be no military stalemate or frozen conflict "at close to the current lines". Neither will there be a ceasefire before the RuZZian military and administrative personnel have been ejected from internationally recognised Ukrainian territory. Those who have been charged and found guilty of crimes, including war crimes will be sentenced appropriately for the crimes committed.
The current conference/coalition of nearly 60 countries will continue to support Ukraine until the primary objective has been achieved. There will be no peace in this world until those goals have been achieved and Russia is, in some way, restrained from attacking other countries.
Many people are saying, "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed". What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is that:
#** February 2022 Russia had nearly 3 times as many tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
Russia 3,400 tanks Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
Russia 990 tanks Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
Russia 2,200 Artillery Ukraine 1,900 Artillery {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
Russia 773 Artillery Ukraine 1,100 Artillery {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
Russia 1,100 MLRS Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 the numbers of MLRS are:
Russia 354 MLRS Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of nearly 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware. That advantage may well have been considerably greater for Russia, because of respective levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms being used, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its land-based hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads, bridges and fuel stocks and storages, that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
The figures above do not include the areas where Russia retains superiority; jet fighter air-craft, Su-95 heavy bombers, ships and submarines in the Black and Caspian Seas. However, since February 2022, Russia has lost; 315 air-craft, 310 helicopters, 18 Ships and boats, including the flagship, Moskva.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
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Yes it would be a tragedy. Recently, I saw a video of a Russian couple {husband and wife}, who were offered work, by the Russians, in the Donbas region, possibly Mariupol. The wife looked particularly dejected and unhappy. The husband was quite clear when he said that he estimated 70% of the population did not want the Russians to remain as occupiers of Ukrainian territory. He said, not 50% but 70% as if to be quite clear about his assessment. I was somewhat surprised because I thought the Russians had brought more Russian people from various occupations into Ukraine. Given that this was a Russian person speaking, it is possible that even 70% was a conservative estimate.
🇺🇦
It appears that the Terror-Russians, by their activities, have converted many of the bi-lingual {Russian & Ukrainian language speakers} to speak only Ukrainian. The treatment of the population, by the occupying Terror-Russians, seems to have alienated many of the people who are Russian language speakers also.
🇺🇦
Furthermore, with the number of Ukrainians, adults and children, transported to Russia, and many Russians brought from Russia into Ukraine, particularly in occupations such as teaching and administrative roles, the population numbers have been artificially weighted in favour of Russia. Hence the reason, in part, why the so-called "annexationn referendums" have not been recognised by any counntry other than North Korea.
🇺🇦
"In late September 2022, in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russian-installed officials in Ukraine staged so-called referendums on the annexation of occupied territories of Ukraine by Russia.[1][2][3][4] They were widely described as sham referendums by commentators and denounced by various countries. Currently, the validity of the results of the referendums has only been accepted by North Korea, and no other sovereign state."
Source: Wikipedia. "2022 annexation referendums in Russian-occupied Ukraine"
🇺🇦
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Not everyone in the US, who voted, did so for DJT. I believe it is unfair to cast the net of blame over the whole population for the outcome of the election. Certainly, those who voted for trump and his minions and also those who did not vote are responsible. But most of them could not have foreseen the usurping of the presidential position by musk. In saying that, I am not justifying their positions. It was obvious, even to people outside the US, that another trump presidency would, very likely, be a disaster. So, there is no excuse, but blind ignorance for the portion of the population -who- that voted for trump. That also applies to people voting for mtg, boebert, and others like them. Suffering the consequences of a trump administration will not be restricted to those who voted for that, but will apply to the whole of the population of the US.
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The Russian "2nd strongest military in the world" has proved itself to be otherwise. Consider the retreats, withdrawals and routs from Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson. All this when Russia was at its highest strength in terms of fresh personnel and more than three times the hardware and equipment the Ukrainians had available to them.
Kherson, where Putin and the Russian political, military and media establishment said "Russia would be forever." A few weeks later, the Russians withdrew from the city of Kherson and retreated to the left bank of the Dnieper River, where they are now being pursued by the Ukrainians.
{"The Russian Armed Forces, which had occupied the city since 2 March 2022, withdrew and retreated to the Left-Bank of the Kherson Oblast over the course of 9–11 November 2022."}
And all of this occurred before most of the more advanced NATO Defensive Alliance specification hardware was supplied to Ukraine in 2023 and the NATO Defensive Alliance training of Ukrainian military personnel had been completed. Some may question why there have not been greater advances by the Ukrainians. As one commenter wrote, "Why move when the enemy simply keeps running into your fist". A fairly graphic illustration of attritional warfare.
Russia may have greater numbers of men to fill their ranks, but they would hardly be referred to as "superior" when matched against Ukrainian, NATO Defensive Alliance trained personnel and Ukraine's other committed civilian and military personnel. As much as half of Russia's better trained VDV {paratroops} {(1)(2)(3) see notes below} have already been eliminated in the WAR against Ukraine. Russia has even gone to the extent, in desperation last year, 2022, of sending their military trainers to the front lines. Consequently, the reason that most of the recently recruited and mobilised Russian personnel are considered to have only very basic and limited preparation for combat. The more experienced and qualified personnel are now favoured as backing troops, while recent conscripts, particularly from the outer ethnic regions of the Russian Federation, are used in "meat-wave attacks". Another example, in addition to what Russia is perpetrating in Ukraine, of Russian genocide of the ethnic peoples of the outer regions of the Russian Federation.
The producers and manufacturers of the so-called Russian "modern military hardware" appear to be approaching the stage where they will accomplish very few sales in the future, because so much of their hardware has failed in its primary function. For example, air-defense systems that are annihilated by the very missiles that they are supposed to intercept. The same applies to their tanks {Amata, T-90 and 72's, etc.}. In addition to hardware performance issues, Russia's WAR against Ukraine has created logistical problems in being able to manufacture and supply military hardware for other countries.
"India and Russia have had a long-standing security cooperation partnership, with India relying heavily on Russian weapons and equipment for its armed forces. However, Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi launched the Make in India initiative in 2014 {interesting to note the year, 2014} to develop the country’s defense industry and reduce dependence on imports. The war in Ukraine has caused India to accelerate this process and end negotiations or cancel agreements with Russia on several weapon system acquisitions."
Source: Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs.
Is it possible that India saw the futility of Russia's "all or nothing" attack and WAR against Ukraine as early as 2014.
(1) The heavy losses of an elite Russian regiment in Ukraine, By Mark Urban, Diplomatic and defence editor, Newsnight 2 April 2022 Russia-Ukraine war
Image caption, Some of the 39 Russian soldiers from the 331st regiment who are known to have died
"In any war, there are units that distinguish themselves and others that become symbolic of failure. The 331st Guards Parachute Regiment had high hopes of being the first, but now represents the disintegration of Russia's plan for a quick war.
"The regiment's commanding officer, Col Sergei Sukharev, was killed in Ukraine on 13 March, and was posthumously awarded the Hero of the Russian Federation medal. At his funeral, deputy defence minister Gen Yuri Sadovenko said the colonel "lived for the future, for the future of our people, a future without Nazism". {Possibly he died because of Russian Nazism}
Colonel Sergei SukharevImage (source, GTRK-Kostroma)
Image caption, Col Sergei Sukharev, commander of the Kostroma 331st regiment, was also killed
"Casualties among Russian forces are not widely reported in Russia itself, but using open source material, the BBC has pieced together the story of their advance, and found that at least 39 other members of the elite 331st regiment have died."
"The men were part of a column that advanced into Ukraine from Belarus, led by Russia's airborne forces, known by the acronym VDV. Their presence underlined the priority of their objective - advancing on the capital, Kyiv." "That advance swiftly got drawn into a destructive stalemate in districts on the outskirts of Kyiv which soon became synonymous with the viciousness of the war: Bucha, Irpin, and Hostomel."
"Videos that emerged online from these battles showed combat vehicles used by Russian airborne forces with "V" signs painted onto them."
(2) "A top Russian general's rare admission that his elite paratroopers suffered heavy casualties in Ukraine was mysteriously removed"
Jake Epstein Aug 4, 2023, 2:52 AM GMT+8
Image caption: Russian paratroopers during celebrations on Paratroopers Day and Saint Ilyas' Day in front of the Spasskaya Tower on Red Square in Moscow on Wednesday. AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko
--- A top Russian general admitted his elite paratroopers suffered thousands of casualties in Ukraine.
--- But shortly after his disclosure went public, it was mysteriously removed from the internet.
--- Acknowledgment of war losses is rare in Russia, and Moscow often downplay its casualty figures.
"A top Russian general admitted this week that his elite paratroopers suffered thousands of casualties while fighting in Ukraine, only for his disclosure to then be mysteriously removed from the internet."
"It's a rare admission from a senior figure in Moscow's military leadership, which often goes to great lengths to avoid acknowledging or to conceal its battlefield failures, setbacks, and overall losses. "
"Col. Gen. Mikhail Teplinsky, commander of Russia's VDV Airborne Forces, disclosed Wednesday that at least 8,500 of his troops had been wounded in Ukraine since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion more than 17 months ago. The number could actually be significantly higher. The Moscow Times reported on Thursday that Teplinsky's video remarks were initially published to Zvezda, a broadcaster run by the Russian defense ministry."
(3) "Ukraine’s army commander claims 3 elite Russian brigades ‘crushed’ in east"
"Ukraine’s ground forces commander General Oleksandr Syrskyi claims three Russian brigades left with no combat capabilities after fighting in east around Bakhmut."
Image Caption: "An assault unit commander from the 3rd Assault Brigade who goes by the call sign 'Fedia' raises the Ukrainian flag as a symbol of liberation of the frontline village of Andriivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023."
"The 3rd Assault Brigade announced Friday they had recaptured the war-ravaged settlement which lies 10 kilometers (6 miles) south of Russian-occupied city of Bakhmut, in the country's embattled east.
(AP Photo/Alex Babenko)
"The general in command of Ukrainian ground forces said his troops have routed three of the best Russian brigades fighting on the front lines in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine.
"General Oleksandr Syrskyi also said on Monday that the recapture of two eastern Ukrainian villages in recent days – Klishchiivka and Andriivka, both of which are located on higher ground near the destroyed town of Bakhmut – was an important breakthrough."
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* Russia Is Sending Its Ethnic Minorities to the Meat Grinder
* Chaotic mobilization sparks renewed fears that the pain will not be shared evenly across Russia.
Reports ethnic minorities may be disproportionately affected while protesters in Moscow drafted on arrest
* Ethnic Minorities Hit Hardest By Russia’s Mobilization, Activists Say
* Russia is likely guilty of an abundance of war crimes in the past and now, but here is one that deserves more attention: the crime of abducting children on an industrial scale. By some reports, the number of Ukrainian children forcibly taken to Russia exceeds 200,000.
* At the beginning of May (2022), Russia’s state news agency TASS quoted a senior official as saying that more than one million people, including nearly 200,000 children, had been taken from Ukraine to Russia in the previous two months “without the participation of Ukraine’s authorities”.
Although Russia records these people as refugees, Tanya Lokshina, associate director of Europe and Central Asia for Human Rights Watch, who has interviewed recent Ukrainian arrivals in Russia, says most had no meaningful choice.
Friday, Feb 24, 2023
* 200,000 Kids Among Ukrainians Taken To Russia: President Zelenskyy
He also said 243 children have been killed so far in the war, 446 have been wounded and 139 are missing, adding that it could be more as his government doesn't have a full picture of the situation in areas occupied by Russian troops.
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Absolutely agree with and have supported your comment. In addition to what you have correctly stated, President Zelenskyy completed his studies and degree in law, though he never practiced as a lawyer. I believe that knowledge has given him a considerable edge over the bumbling and chaotic trump, and others of his ilk and cohort.
President Zelenskyy has people around him, I am certain, who can give him reliable, accurate and informed guidance. They may not always agree with each other, but that adds value to their collective reasoning, assessments and decisions.
On the other hand, trump has selected a crowd of sycophants, many of -whom- which appear not to have many brain cells, but are prepared to attack on their master's command. This may help to make trump feel superior, but they add little to his political, cultural and organisational processes. Unfortunately, trump and his followers are diminishing the image of the US in everyone's eyes except those of pootin and his similarly structured menagerie.
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It is not a matter of what Russia is able to do, it is a question as to whether they, to my way of thinking, delusionally {in the strict sense of the word} or in spite of Russia's total ignorance of their real military capacity, believe that they can achieve their stated goals and objectives of re-instituting the former USSR, by that or any other name. To do so, Russia would have to attack other NATO Defensive Alliance member countries.
First, Moldova, not an Alliance member country, then connecting with Transnistria, along the long {aprox 200 km} (1) North-Eastern border of Ukraine and Moldova, where ~500 Russian military personnel (2) are said to be stationed. Then Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO Alliance member countries, but difficult to support from the West because of the Carpathian Mountains. Hungary and Slovakia may capitulate if Russia takes Romania. This portion of the plan would have to be completed by surprise and quickly for Russian success.
At this stage, with the Eastern portions of Ukraine illegally occupied and controlled by the Russians, Georgia effectively hobbled, Romania and Bulgaria secured, the only other country with a Black Sea coastline is Turkey. How much pressure would Russia have to impose to make Turkey compliant to Russia's wishes and intentions. At which time, the Azov and Black Seas become, effectively, a Russian Azov/Black Sea lake.
Having accomplished control of the Black Sea, Russia will have effectively covered the Southern flank of any possible attack against them as they proceed East via the Suwalki Gap. Though, by this time, the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries will have been fully mobilised and free to cross Polish and Ukrainian borders against the Russians. No wonder Poland has strengthened their Northern and Eastern borders. Poland shares a border with the Suwalki Gap, which is itself also adjacent to the Lithuanian border.
Next would likely be an assault on the 100 km Suwalki Gap between Belarus and Kaliningrad, where the Russians have conventional and, it is generally believed, nuclear weapons. Russia has apparently moved nuclear weapons into Belarus. With the Suwalki Gap secured, Russia will have successfully divided the Southern European countries from those in the North, and have carved a direct route from Russia to the Baltic Sea. Then the very small countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
In their attempts to do so, Russia can be the cause of hundreds of thousands {possibly millions} of deaths of civilians and military personnel and massive destruction. All of which we have seen in Ukraine, but on a much larger scale, without any compunction or moral scruple of any sort on Russia's part.
The issue is not whether Russia can subjugate, subordinate and dominate other countries, but rather, the death and destruction that Russia will cause in attempting to achieve those goals and objectives. And all that death and destruction is intended to intimidate, not only Ukrainians, but also the populations in Western Europe, presumably in an effort to "encourage" Europeans to sacrifice Ukraine to save themselves from a similar fate. But, it will not save Western Europeans, but rather, just postpone the inevitable future attacks by Russia.
We have also seen that Russia seems oblivious to the difference between the combined resources of the NATO Defensive Alliance and Russia's own resources and any other resources available to Russia from Iran, North Korea, possibly China and any others.
If you are not already familiar with the videos on Julia Davis' "Russian Media Monitor" YouTube website, it may be worth your while web-searching them. They are extracts from material presented to the Russian population through Russian TV broadcasts, with English language subtitles. Some of the material could variously be described as horrifying, unbelievable, comical in its absurdity, confronting and numerous other descriptive words. Please do check them out.
Another website that may be of interest consists of interviews with 'ordinary' Russians in the street about their views on a range of topics. Those videos can be seen on Daniil Orain's youTube website, "1420".
With Best Wishes, PNH
References from Wikipedia:
1) "Lying between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, Transnistria is 200 kilometres in length, and in some places only two kilometres wide. This strip of land is officially called the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), and has a population of around 500,000."
2) "The Operational Group of Russian Forces in Transnistria is a sizable overseas military task force of the Russian Armed Forces."
"The OGRF ostensibly remains in Transnistria to guard the ammunition depot at Cobasna. It also provides additional support to the Armed Forces of Transnistria. Today, around 350–400 troops with the operational force report directly to the JCC and can be assigned to it at any given time."
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@henrikstenlund5385
Hello Henrik, Thank you for your response.
I realised, from your response, that my original text may not have fully conveyed what I intended. I hope that in the following adjusted text, my thoughts may be clearer.
With reference to the perspectives, as viewed by Russians, who are beguiled by their own media "personalities", and their political and military establishment:-
:- If falsehood is said about every circumstance, then it may be impossible for the Russians to find any truth in all they are told.
:- If the only truth is external to the Russians, it may be impossible for them to recognise "the truth", when the Russians are fed only lies.
:- Even the distributors of the lies, that are conveyed and stated in the Russian media, and by the Russian political and military establishment, no longer know from where "the real truth" may be sought, or what it is, when it is right in front of them, since their vision is so clouded by the multipicity of lies and the type of propaganda that they distribute {thinking the likes of Solovyov, Simonyan, Pestkov, Lavrov, Kelin (Andrei) etc}.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Original text that I wrote:
"If falsehood is said about every circumstance, then it is impossible to find any truth.
If the only truth is external, it will be impossible to recognise by those who are fed only lies.
Even the perpetrators of the lies, no longer know from where truth may be sought."
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I believe that you have incorrect or unreliable sources for your information, Christian Marrero.
According to the Turkish Anadolu Agency website, the following figures, from Ukrainian sources were reported on the 23 June 2022, by Ali Cura and Ali Murat Alhas. It is interesting to note that the conflict is not referred to a "special military operation", as preferred by Russian connections, but as a WAR.
Quote:
----- "KYIV, Ukraine/ANKARA
The Ukrainian General Staff on Thursday said the Russian army has suffered casualties in the direction of the Bakhmut city of Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region as the war marks its 120th day.
The Ukrainian body said in a statement that the Russian side lost a total of 34,430 troops, along with 1,504 battle tanks, 3,632 armored vehicles, 756 artillery systems, 240 multiple-launch rocket systems, 99 air defense systems, and 2,548 private vehicles and tankers.
The statement also said Ukraine's army took down 216 warplanes, 183 helicopters, and 620 unmanned drones, and struck 14 vessels and towing systems.
According to the statement, the Russian army has advanced towards the eastern city of Severodonetsk in the Luhansk region while facing casualties around Bakhmut.
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu announced earlier on March 25 that the count of soldiers lost was 1,351.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Rezkinov confirmed on his Twitter account that the US-made HIMARS multiple rocket launcher systems arrived in Ukraine.
"Thank you to my American colleague and friend (US Secretary of Defense) Lloyd J. Austin III for these powerful tools!" he said. "Summer will be hot for Russian occupiers. And the last one for some of them."
Experts argue that the HIMARS system, capable of performing precision strikes on mid-range, might cause serious attrition for the Russian army and slow down its offensive.
More than 4,600 civilians have been killed in Ukraine since the war began on Feb. 24.
Around 15 million people have been forced to flee their homes, with more than 8 million moving to neighboring countries, according to UN data." {End Quote.}
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY TO UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Yes, those thoughts and ideas have occurred to me and, I presume, others as well. Unfortunatel, the involvement of ruZZia in any such deal, particularly if their oligarch fingers extend into Ukraine, ruZZian controlled or otherwise, sets Ukraine back 20 or 30 years, and will preclude EU and NATO membership. This is apart from the fact that ruZZia is likely, in any event, to militarily come back for more with another invasion. Any such deal leaves Ukraine totally vulnerable.
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If the Ukrainians had been given everything available in 2022, they would have been defeated by an overwhelmingly superior ruZZian military conglomerate.
Since 2022, Russia has lost 20% of its air force, including many irreplaceable reconnaissance and other specialist planes, one third of the reinforced** Russian (invincible) Black Sea fleet, amounting to half their firepower, 40% of their petroleum industry's processing plant, and immense numbers of ground-based hardware, equipment and military personnel.
** (Russia brought a submarine and six heavy landing ships from the Baltic and North Sea fleets to the Black Sea, just weeks/days prior to their invasion)
This means that the military and economic capacity of the Russian Federation (ruZZia) has been brought to a stage where it is feasible to consider the possibility of their defeat.
Without knowing all the information, it is easy to project a different outcome. However, I believe, that the WAR waged by ruZZia against Ukraine, has been fought in a manner that advantages Ukraine. That is with the lowest loss of lives of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel.
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The question is raised about how you define traiterous activity, or is it partisan activity, in support of your own country. I believe that this fellow incorrectly identified those civilians, acting in defense of their country, as "traitors". To my way of thinking and, I hope, that of many others, the activity of such people is correctly recognised as partisan activity in defense of their HOMELAND, not Russia's or Russians'.
It is Terror-Russia that attacked, invaded and incited many of the people to insurrection against the Ukrainian government. That insurrection was generated by the same activities, lies, falsehoods and pressures that we see exhibited in the YouTube comments.
I have no doubt that many of the people, in Crimea and the Donbas regions, who were subject to that pressure by the Terror-Russians, since 2013-14, have since realised that the Terror-Russians are definitely not supporting the interests of the Ukrainian population, whether they speak the Russian or Ukrainian language. Hence the reason that, "not 50%, but 70%" of the population, in the illegally occupied territory, are opposed to the Terror-Russian occupation and are fighting against it. And chances are that the "70%" is actually a conservative estimate of the percenntage of people opposed, given that the figure was presented by a Russian fellow, who falsely considers partisans to be traitors.
In some ways, the Russian fellow and his wife have shown at least some level of empathy, responsiveness and consideration, to the wishes of the local population, by speaking of their experience and observations. On that issue, they have earned at least some recognition for that empathy. I could say that his wife looked angry, but I'd rather believe that she was disappointed and disalllusioned by the difference between what she/they had been told in Russia and the reality that they faced in Ukraine. However, the misstating of activities as traitorous, as distinct from partisan, still identifies them as holding a Russia-centric view of their position and status in Ukraine.
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It frustrates me when people think that the US has the capacity to force an aggressor to the peace conference table.
If only it was that simple.
No country has the power to force an aggressor to the peace conference without an outright defeat or sufficient leverage, where the aggressor feels that they have more to lose than they are prepared to relinquish. They have waged their war with their own interests in mind. It has been clearly shown that Poo-tin {Putin} has used scurrilous and unsupportable reasons for the war. Consequently it can only be assumed that the reasons that he and the Kremlin have stated are, in essence, false and cover another motive. There are numerous suppositions and propositions floating around about what those reasons might be. However, It may be worth looking at some historical events. They all involve similar types of circumstances and scenarios. And all initiated by Russia.
In all of the following reports, it will be seen that there are common themes, such as the unilateral breaking of treaties, invasion and bombing by planes and bombardment by artillery of residential, health, social, cultural, community , commercial, and industrial infrastructure to the point of decimation of the population and near total destruction of the existing infrastructure, as has been seen recently in Ukraine.
The Polish–Soviet War - late autumn 1918 / 14 February 1919 – 18 March 1921
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Soviet_War
Battle of Grozny (1999–2000) in Chechnya
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1999%E2%80%932000)
The 1999–2000 battle of Grozny was the siege and assault of the Chechen capital Grozny by Russian forces, lasting from late 1999 to early 2000. The siege and fighting left the capital devastated. In 2003, the United Nations called Grozny the most destroyed city on Earth.[10] Between 5,000[8] and 8,000 civilians[9] were killed during the siege, making it the bloodiest episode of the Second Chechen War.
The 2008 Russo-Georgian War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War
was a war between Georgia, on one side, and Russia and the Russian-backed self-proclaimed republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, on the other. The war took place in August following a period of worsening relations between Russia and Georgia, both formerly constituent republics of the Soviet Union. The fighting took place in the strategically important South Caucasus region. It is regarded as the first European war of the 21st century.[31]
Russian military intervention in the Syrian civil war
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_intervention_in_the_Syrian_civil_war
Russian involvement in the Syrian civil war
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_involvement_in_the_Syrian_civil_war
Russian–Syrian hospital bombing campaign
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian%E2%80%93Syrian_hospital_bombing_campaign
Russia's Long History of Bombing Hospitals
https://newlinesmag.com/newsletter/russias-long-history-of-bombing-hospitals/
What the ruthless new commander of Russia's military in Ukraine, General Aleksandr Dvornikov signals for the war
https://www.npr.org/2022/04/15/1092882592/russia-ukraine-war-update-butcher-of-syria-putin-dvornikov
Ukraine invasion — explained
The roots of Russia's invasion of Ukraine go back decades and run deep. The current conflict is more than one country taking over another; it is — in the words of one U.S. official — a shift in "the world order."
https://www.npr.org/series/1082539802/russia-ukraine-invasion-explained
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People really do care. I have never seen, in all my life, so many people supporting one enterprize, venture, exercise or topic, or for as long, with no waning of interest or dimished concern, as I have seen supporting Ukraine and Ukrainians. I have been around for 3/4 of a century, so I have seen a lot go by.
In fact, the justification and reasons for expressions of support and concern appear to me to be the models and foundation for support and concern, for a greater number of people, who are experiencing such dire needs and conditions around the world. By saying that, I am not suggesting a reduction in support for Ukraine and Ukrainians, but rather an extension of that support when we hear or become aware of people experiencing such circumstances.
I have shown my impressions of what epotomises my view, and possibly those views and feelings of others, with regard to the political and military establishment of Russia, and the military forces for which they are responsible, and with regard to those people and countries who support the RuZZian attacks and WAR, waged by RuZZia against Ukraine. These attacks and WAR are similar to other WARs waged by RuZZia against other peoples and countries.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
RuZZia and Facist-Nazis:
RuZZia refers to the RuZZian Fascist-Nazi style regime that appears to be acting against the interests of their own population and the populations of other countries, particularly Ukraine at the present time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism
Fascism is a far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement,[1][2][3] characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for the perceived good of the nation and race, and strong regimentation of society and the economy.[2][3]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazism
Nazism is a form of fascism,[2][3][4][5] with disdain for liberal democracy and the parliamentary system. It incorporates fervent antisemitism, anti-communism, scientific racism, and the use of eugenics into its creed. Its extreme nationalism originated in pan-Germanism and the ethno-nationalist neopagan Völkisch movement which had been a prominent aspect of German nationalism since the late 19th century, and it was strongly influenced by the Freikorps paramilitary groups that emerged after Germany's defeat in World War I, from which came the party's underlying "cult of violence".[6]
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Other Wars: Ukraine, Chechen 1 & 2., 13 wars, Afghanistan.
I am another contributor who shares concern and offers support for Ukrainians, through these comments, in their defensive WAR against the RuZZian invaders, and any other country {Iran} that supports the RuZZians.
The sites that I follow, Include Vlad Vexler, Denys Davydov, Jake Broe, Starsky, Joe Blogs, Al Jazeera {English}, STG TV, Artur Rehi, and others.
Other sites that I check, that may also be of interest are:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum,
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/18/the-real-role-of-pro-russian-chechens-in-ukraine
https://military-history.fandom.com/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia
1st Chechen War. Battle of Grozny (1994 to 1996)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1994%E2%80%931995)
"During the First Chechen War, Grozny was the site of an intense battle lasting from December 1994 to February 1995 and ultimately ending with the capture of the city by the Russian military. Intense fighting and carpet bombing carried out by the Russian Air Force destroyed much of the city. Thousands of combatants on both sides died in the fighting, alongside civilians, many of whom were reportedly ethnic Russians; unclaimed bodies were later collected and buried in mass graves on the city outskirts. The main federal military base in Chechnya was located in the area of Grozny air base.[citation needed]"
"Chechen guerrilla units operating from nearby mountains managed to harass and demoralize the Russian Army by means of guerilla tactics and raids, such as the attack on Grozny in March 1996, which added to political and public pressure for a withdrawal of Russian troops. In August 1996, a raiding force of 1,500 to 3,000 militants recaptured the city in a surprise attack. They surrounded and routed its entire garrison of 10,000 MVD troops, while fighting off the Russian Army units from the Khankala base. The battle ended with a final ceasefire and Grozny was once again in the hands of Chechen separatists. The name was changed to Djohar in 1997 by the President of the separatist Ichkeria republic, Aslan Maskhadov. By this time most of the remaining Russian minority had fled.[46]
2nd Chechen War. Battle of Grozny (1999–2000)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Grozny_(1999%E2%80%932000)
"The 1999–2000 battle of Grozny was the siege and assault of the Chechen capital Grozny by Russian forces, lasting from late 1999 to early 2000. The siege and fighting left the capital devastated. In 2003, the United Nations called Grozny the most destroyed city on Earth.[10] Between 5,000[8] and 8,000 civilians[9] were killed during the siege, making it the bloodiest episode of the Second Chechen War."
Added to the details above, the following details give some insight into the way that RuZZians wage WAR against other countries and states. There is definitely an identifiable trend in their methods; mainly murder and destruction. It appears to be the way that RuZZians do diplomacy.
https://ukrainer.net/russian-wars/
2014-2022 – Russian-Ukrainian war
War Russia’s wars for the last 30 years and a few of their developments
March 2, 2022
"Russia constantly claims to be a “peacemaker” who strives for peace. Since the beginning of the military conflict in Ukraine in 2014, there has been a constant narrative about “saving” those whom this country seems to come to protect. This has been happening for decades, but the world has barely noticed it. Only the rebuff of Ukraine and the heroism of the Ukrainian military made the world understand that this is not a local conflict, but a true global war.
"In the spring of 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and tried to create “people’s republics” in the east, south, and center of Ukraine. Russian citizens under the guise of the “independence movement” seized power in Donetsk and Luhansk with the support of Russian troops. Ukraine has launched an anti-terrorist operation. After heavy fighting in 2014 and 2015, the undeclared war in eastern Ukraine went into a state of “frozen”. On February 24, 2022, Russia officially attacked Ukraine, calling it an “operation”.
"In just a few days of this war, more than 5,000 Russian soldiers have already been killed.
"In 2022, Ukraine and the entire civilized world have a chance to put an end to the military aggression of the former empire. Everything that Russia touches turns to ashes and suffering in the international arena. Although they call it “peacekeeping missions” and “special operations” to “protect the Russian-speaking or Orthodox population.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia
List of wars involving Russia since dissolution of USSR in 1991
1991–1993 Georgian Civil War
1992 Transnistria War
1992 East Prigorodny Conflict
North Ossetia-Alania
1992–1997 Tajikistani Civil War
1993 Russian spillover into Azerbaijan
1994–1996 First Chechen War
1999 War of Dagestan
1999–2009 Second Chechen War
2008 Russo-Georgian War
2009–2017 Insurgency in the North Caucasus
2014–present Russo-Ukrainian War
2015–present Russian military intervention in the Syrian Civil War
2018–present Central African Republic Civil War
https://www.britannica.com/event/Soviet-invasion-of-Afghanistan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War
"The Soviet–Afghan War (1979–1989) was a conflict wherein insurgent groups known collectively as the Mujahideen, as well as smaller Maoist groups, fought a nine-year guerrilla war against the military occupation of the Soviet Union and their satellite state, the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (DRA), throughout the 1980s, mostly in the Afghan countryside.
"The Mujahideen were variously backed primarily by the United States, Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, and the United Kingdom; the conflict was a Cold War-era proxy war. Between 562,000[47] and 2,000,000 Afghans were killed and millions more fled the country as refugees,[51][52][48][49] mostly to Pakistan and Iran. Between 6.5%–11.5% of Afghanistan's 1979 population of 13.5 millions is estimated to have perished in the conflict. The war caused grave destruction in Afghanistan, and it has also been cited by scholars as a contributing factor to the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.[53][54] "
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Peregrine,
you have posed a reasonable, extremely pressing and concerning question that needs to be asked. I would not wish my comments to, in any way, be construed as condoning the behaviour of Maria Lvova-Belova, her husband or anyone else complicit in the removal of children from their homeland of Ukraine, following the deaths of one or both parents. However, it can hardly be imagined that the woman's husband, by virtue (ironic use intended) of his profession as a priest, would not have known of innumerable alternative and family oriented people with whom children could be placed, where those children could have been given more personalised attention and guidance.
At least being in one place, as a small community, the seventeen children in this couple's household, would be more easily located and returned to parents or members of their extended families in Ukraine, or from wherever else they may have been abducted. Presumably, during subsequent interviews and "debriefing" (soft) with the children, some of the answers to your questions may be revealed. We can only hope that the children were able to support each other and that the criminal activity connected with the children may have been restricted to their abduction, illegal deportation from their homeland, and illegal "adoption" by this couple. It is unfortunate to realise, statistically, that many of the children deported to Russia from Ukraine may not have been as fortunate.
Given the problems, and consequences, that so many children have growing up under far less challenging circumstances, it is not difficult to comprehend the psychological difficulties that many of these children will have in their future lives, even after being returned to Ukraine and reunited with other members of their extended families.
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Your comment brings to mind a analogies that I wrote about Poo-tin and the Russian political and military establishment,
---- Big, Bad, Bold, Tough Russia and Big, Bad, Bold, Tough Poo-tin {Putin}, hiding behind the petti-coats and clinging to the apron-strings of little sister Ukraine, for protection as their "buffer zone". How Absolutely Pathetic !!!
---- Just like an over-spoilt child or the school-yard bully attacking others and wanting to take what they have. And when their position is revealed, hiding behind someone else and falsely accusing the victim.
---- Depite all their huge land area and abundant natural resources, the Russians want to take and control what another country has, in this case Ukraine. Sheer unadulterated greed and power-gaming.
And Russia has the audacity and arrogance to point accusatory fingers and words at other people and countries.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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The "conquered land" is just a piece of material which still has value to the original occupants, Ukraine, and is likely to continue to be contested. The land may be of economic value to Russia, because of its valuable resources and ports that allow for easy access, as has been demonstrated by the 'food shortage crisis'. However, the land, resources and access are only ever going to continue to be held by Russia as the occupier, not as the country to which it is part and holds sovereignty, being Ukraine.
A legal issue that has recently been raised by Brad Slowgrove, who I know has contributed his knowledge in this thread, a part of his observations, in his words follows:
"Putin's problem is that international law e.g the Nuremberg Charter and its modern offspring is in a much more developed state in 2022 than it was at the time of Imperial Russia. The result is only two options for Putin, death and life imprisonment after global humiliation. No peace treaty can bind Ukraine if it cedes territory to Russia as a result of a criminal war of aggression no matter how many diplomatic documents Ukraine signs see e.g. article 53 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties while noting the Nuremberg Charter and its offspring are all preemptory ( ius cogens) norms of international law. Criminal wars of aggression are rare not common and there have only been 3 others and none have ended in a peace treaty especially one where the victim state cedes territory to the aggressor state. Russia must go back as Henry Kissinger said to " the status quo ante" which is the 2014 boundaries because although these boundaries are not legal they are not the result of a criminal war of aggression.Russia will not go back to the " status quo ante" without a secret deal to gain extra territory of Ukraine so this too will be struck down by the preemptory norms and the treaty ceding the territory void and not binding on Ukraine that can take the benefits of Russian withdrawal and legally continue the war to protect all its territory as a lawful ruse of war since it is not a " white flag" of surrender in a combat theatre. Kissinger was unbelievably misrepresented by the stupid media that have been out of tune with what was possible in this war from the outset. Any compromise of the Nuremberg Charter which would require virtually unanimous global support would be the greatest disaster for the future of the world ever. The Soviet Union was one of its creators and always obeyed the Nuremberg Charter so did Mao's China."
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@mrdisco99
Your response,
"that's not worth much as long as Turkey still controls the way out of the Black Sea.",
implies that there may be some restriction placed by Turkey to access and egress from the Black Sea, of Russian ships. This is not likely as I understand the situation.
With loading of oil in the Azov or Black Sea ports, that Russia already has, even without Ukranian ports, and no reason to expect limitations by Turkey, itself a consumer of Russian oil and gas, on the transport by sea, of Russian oil and even gas in LPG form, it would seem superfluous and equally, if not more dangerous, to take the Iranian route.
I cannot see the advantage, to the Russians, of an overland pipeline to and through the Caspian Sea, then overland through Iran, to Iranian ports on the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Sea.
There is also a huge disparity between the cost of any drones that Russia may purchase and any advantage that Russia may otherwise gain as a result of such an agreement with Iran.
Which then brings us back to the Azov and Black Seas.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY TO UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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@mrdisco99
You hit the nail on the head when you said that "Turkey has already interfered with shipments of stolen grain." That was, presumably, because the grain was stolen. That is just an indicator of Russian ethics on the international arena.
As I said before, there is no reason to believe that Turkey would prevent access and egress to the Black Sea, further corroborated by your own statement that ".... previous agreements would prevent Turkey from interfering with legit oil shipments, .... ". I've replaced the word "prevent", with the words "..... make it difficult for.... "
So why would Russia be making arrangements with Iran? Particularly when, as you allude to in your comment, ".... if they can get a lasting partnership {with Iran} and the infrastructure." Lasting, possibly, being the operative word.
Your arguments regarding the tenuous connection between the purchase of UAV's from Iran and some questionable arrangements for transport and transit rights for Russian oil and gas through Iran, rest on too many suppositions, and appear to me to offer too few benefits, and fragile ones at that, to Russia.
Having cleared land and set sail from an Iranian port, there is also the issue of safety at sea, in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea:
https://safety4sea.com/security-warning-for-the-red-sea-persian-gulf-and-western-indian-ocean-region/
----- {"On 1 September 2021 the US Maritime Administration (MARAD) issued a revised advisory to US flagged commercial vessels operating in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Red Sea, and Western Indian Ocean.
----- "The advisory warns that regional conflict, heightened military activity, and increased political tensions continue to pose threats to merchant vessels operating in these geographical areas.
----- "It further states that threats may come from a number of different sources including, but not limited to, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), limpet mines, explosive boats, and pirates. With little or no warning, vessels operating in these areas may also encounter navigation or communication disruptions, such as GPS interference, AIS spoofing, and bridge-to-bridge communications spoofing."}
https://www.gard.no/web/updates/content/30998194/maritime-security-recommendations-for-operations-in-the-persian-gulf
----- {"On 5 January 2021, the Round Table of Industry Associations and OCIMF jointly published a set of recommended risk mitigating measures for vessels operating in the Persian (Arabian) Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Aden and Red Sea. This was done in response to the 31 December 2020 incident, where a Liberian-flagged tanker identified the presence of a suspicious object, later reported to be a limpet mine, attached to its hull whilst conducting STS operations off Iraq. There is apparently no indication where or when the device was attached to the vessel’s hull or who did this. It is also understood that officials from Iraq safely removed the device."}
I think that ships carrying oil for Russia would not be immune to such operations.
Which again brings us back to the question of control of the Azov Sea and most of the Black Sea.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY TO UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Ukraine has not been de-militerised, de-nazified or cleared of Satanists because none of those elements were likely to have been any more existent within Ukraine than within any other country. And your observation includes reference to the fact that the rolles have been reversed. It is now Putin, the political and military establishement of Russia and, by default, the Russians who are now the laughing stock of the world.
There is presently, and never has been any Justifiable reason for Russia's WAR against Ukraine. The only reason that I can see is a high degree of hubris, pride and greed on the part of Putin and the political and military establishment of Russia. All the reasons, given at the beginning of the war, by Putin and other Russian sources, have been shown to be false:
** Protection of the interests of the Russian speaking civilian population in the east of Ukraine? Thousands have been murdered by the Russian aerial and artillery bombardments, the survivors made homeless and destitute, displaced persons within their own country, and refugees in other countries supporting Ukraine.
** Nazis? -- Ukraine has probably roughly the same percentage of people holding significantly right leaning philosophy and views among their population, as any other "free world" country and probably a smaller proportion of the population than in Russia.
** Demilitarization? -- If the conquest was going to be as easy as the Russians thought, I wonder what level of militarization the Russians thought that the Ukrainians had? The Russians must have been aware that the Ukrainian military, though possibly well trained, would not have had significant quantities of munitions and materiel. Presumably, the reason for believing Ukraine to be an easy target. Most of the military hardware, that the Ukrainians currently have, has arrived in Ukraine since the second invasion of Ukraine's territory, by Russia in February 2022, following their first invasion in 2014.
** NATO "threat"? -- In this day and age of intercontinental ballistic missiles that can be fired to the other side of the world, what reason has Putin and his Moscow menagerie to hide behind the petti-coats and hang on to the apron-strings of little sister, Ukraine. Another characteristic of a bully when issues and events are not going his way.
** De-Satan-ization -- On the 26 October 2022, I have heard that Putin has included desatanization to his list of objectives. Presumably, this WAR with Ukraine has now become a religious WAR.
Indeed there are many other countries that appear, according to comments by Putin and others from the Moscow menagerie, to be at risk of aggressive and offensive invasion by Russia, should Russia succeed in its belligerent offensive, invasion and WAR waged against Ukraine. This is completely the reverse of Russia's claims of feeling threatened by NATO. The comments, by people in the Russian establishment, maintain and support the assertion and belief that Russia should be confined and prevented from proceeding with such attacks on any other countries.
How absolutely Preposterous, Ridiculous and Pathetic is the position of Russia given their stated position, all of which has changed, from time to time, as the war proceeded, and the Russian asserted positions were, at each stage, shown to be false?
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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My response to the following observation by another person:
Quote: >>>>{"Love your work but, don't disrespect Musk hê did not give starlink to Ukraine for military support. It is ment for civilian use.
He can tack it all away and leave Ukraine to it's fate.I don't agree with his comment on that photo, but as hê pays most individual tax in USA i do feel that he can say wat he wants. That is freedom of speech exactly what your country is fighting for." (sic)}<<<< End Quote.
So, because a person "pays most individual tax in USA", he is free to say anything about anyone else, without also being subject to criticism in return. And you say that you "do feel that he can say wat he wants." (sic) That is the very opposite of the free speech that you claim to be supporting. It sounds very much like the conditions of the apartheid regime in South Africa, (1948 to 1994) under the influence of which Musk grew up. Selective and preferential treatment. No !!! I definitely do not agree with you.
Born: 28 June 1971 (age 52 years), Pretoria, South Africa
Net worth: 249.8 billion USD (2023) Forbes
Musk attended Waterkloof House Preparatory School, Bryanston High School, and Pretoria Boys High School, from where he graduated. Musk was a good but not exceptional student, earning a 61 in Afrikaans and a B on his senior math certification. Musk applied for a Canadian passport through his Canadian-born mother, knowing that it would be easier to immigrate to the United States this way. While waiting for his application to be processed, he attended the University of Pretoria for five months.
The Apartheid (1948 to 1994) in South Africa was the racial segregation under the all-white government of South Africa which dictated that non-white South Africans (a majority of the population) were required to live in separate areas from whites and use separate public facilities, and contact between the two groups would be limited. The different racial groups were physically separated according to their location, public facilities and social life.
🇺🇦 Best Wishes to Jake and to all the people supporting Ukraine. 🇺🇦
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* Russia's revanchist ideas about re-establishing the former USSR, or the same by any other name, clearly indicate that Putin and the Russian political, military and media establishment would attack member countries of the NATO Defensive Alliance in order to achieve the clearly stated goals and objectives of Putin and the Russian establishment. Considering that Putin and the rest of the Russian establishment believe that any area of land or country where Russia previously held control is Russian territory by inference, many of those countries are at risk.
Russia is highly unlikely to display maps of its future plans to invade any country in advance. With regard to Russia's invasion and WAR, waged against Ukraine, Russia even stated, right up to the day, that there was no reason to invade Ukraine {a second time, following the 2014 invasion} and that Russia would not do so. Yet that is exactly what Russia did, with less that 24 hours notice.
In the following essay, I have referred to the Google "Map Of Europe." The countries to the East of Russia are not the only ones at imminent risk of attack by Russian military forces, but also the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and also Poland, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. All of these, Russia considers Russian territory; that is "illegally occupied". Hence the reason that Russia claims they will not attack any other European country. "They are all Russia".
Given the current political situation in Hungary and Slovakia, either or both of those countries could possibly capitulate following successful attacks, by the Russians, on Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria.
It is not a matter of what Russia is actually ABLE to do. It is really a question as to whether Russia, delusionally {in the strict sense of the word, to my way of thinking}, or in spite of Russia's apparent ignorance of their real and inadequate military capacity against that of the NATO Defensive Alliance {32 countries} and other supporting countries {~30 at present}, believe that they can achieve their stated goals and objectives of re-instituting the former USSR, by that or any other name. And we know that the intended "revanchism" has been recently and regularly stated by Putin and others in Russia, directly and implicitly.
To accomplish Russia's goals and objectives, Russia would have to attack NATO Defensive Alliance member countries. First, Moldova, {not an Alliance member country}, then connecting with Transnistria (1), on the long {aprox 200 km} North-Eastern border between Ukraine and Moldova, where ~500 or more {OGRF} (2) Russian military personnel are said to be stationed. Then Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO Alliance member countries, but difficult to support from the West because of the Carpathian Mountains and, if they chose to support Russia, Hungary and Slovakia to the North-West.
This portion of the {possible} Russian plan would have to be completed by surprise and with guile, subterfuge and speed, which we know to be trade-marks of the Russian style of operation. At this stage, with the Eastern portions of Ukraine illegally occupied and controlled by the Russians; Georgia, on the Eastern side of the Black Sea, effectively hobbled; Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria secured; the only other country with a Black Sea coastline is Turkey. The question would then arise as to how much soft economic, or hard military pressure would have to imposed by Russia to make Turkey compliant to Russia's wishes and intentions. At which time, the Azov and Black Seas become, effectively, a Russian Azov/Black Sea lake.
"NATO Defensive Alliance, Article 5. The key section of the NATO Defensive Alliance Treaty is Article 5. Its commitment clause defines the "casus foederis". It commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state, in the areas defined by Article 6, to be an armed attack against them all."
The Russians, having accomplished their goal of control of the Black Sea, will have effectively covered the Southern flank of any possible attack against them as they proceed East via the 100 km {~60 mile} Suwalki Gap, via Belarus. Though, by this time, the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries will have been fully mobilised, under NATO Article 5, as a result of Russian attacks on Romania and Bulgaria. Troops from NATO member countries would then be free to cross and operate against the Russians within the Polish and Ukrainian borders {with the permission and approval of each country}. It is not surprising that Poland has considerably strengthened their defenses on their Northern and Eastern borders.
The Suwalki Gap traverses the Northern portion of the Polish border, adjacent to the Lithuanian border. It may be considered and has been referred to as the "THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE ON EARTH. In a showdown between Russia and NATO, the 'Suwałki Gap' would likely be the first point of contact. By Matthew Karnitschnig in Druskininkai, Lithuania".
The Russians would then be likely to mount an assault on the 100 km {~60 mile} long Suwalki Gap, between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. The Russians have conventional and, it is generally believed, nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad. Russia is also understood to have moved nuclear weapons into Belarus.
With the Suwalki Gap secured, Russia will have successfully divided the Southern European countries from the Northern Baltic and Scandinavian countries. Russia will also have carved a direct route from Russia to the Baltic Sea. Then the very small countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
In Russia's attempts to accomplish these goals and objectives, and irrespective of their possible success or failure, Russia could be the cause of hundreds of thousands {possibly millions} of deaths of civilians and military personnel and massive levels of destruction. All of which we have already seen, as a result of Russian military actions in Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and other countries. However, future outcomes of Russia's aggression could be on a very much larger scale, without any compunction or moral scruple, of any sort, on Russia's part. Russia's claim is, "The only rule of WAR is the outcome", which is a direct counter to, and repudiation of all the international agreements to which Russia is signatory.
But, we have already seen, on numerous occasions, that Russia has no regard for Agreements, Memoranda and Treaties when they do not match or coincide with Russia's immediate needs, interests or wishes. The issue is not whether Russia can subjugate, subordinate and dominate other countries, but instead, the death and destruction that Russia will cause in attempting to achieve those goals and objectives.
All the death and destruction in Ukraine is intended to intimidate, not only Ukrainians, but also the populations in Western Europe. This is, presumably, in an effort to "encourage" or "persuade" Europeans to sacrifice Ukraine {and possibly other smaller countries} with the intention of saving themselves from a similar fate to that imposed by the Russians on Ukraine. However, such a sacrifice will not save Western Europeans, but rather, will just postpone the inevitable future attacks by Russia. Particularly as Russia gets stronger and more confident with each conquest.
We have also seen that Russia seems oblivious to the difference between the combined resources of the NATO Defensive Alliance of 32 countries and the ~30 additional countries assisting and supporting Ukraine, with respect to Russia's own resources as well as other resources available to Russia from Iran, North Korea, possibly China and any other countries that may support Russia.
============================
Anyone not already familiar with the videos on Julia Davis' "Russian Media Monitor" YouTube website, I recommend web-searching and viewing them. They are extracts from material presented to the Russian population through Russian TV broadcasts, with very clear and, I believe, accurate English language subtitles. Some of the material could variously be described as horrifying, unbelievable, comical in its absurdity, confronting and numerous other descriptive words. A recent video is entitled: "Vladimir Solovyov wants to nuke Western cities". Duration: 4:24 min. Please do check them out.
Another website, that may be of interest, consists of interviews with 'ordinary' Russians in the street about their views on a wide range of topics. Those videos can be seen on Daniil Orain's YouTube website, "1420".
References from Wikipedia:
1) "Lying between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, Transnistria is 200 kilometres in length, and in some places only two kilometres wide. This strip of land is officially called the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), and has a population of around 500,000."
2) "The Operational Group of Russian Forces {OGRF} in Transnistria is a sizable overseas military task force of the Russian Armed Forces." The OGRF ostensibly remains in Transnistria to guard the ammunition depot at Cobasna. It also provides additional support to the Armed Forces of Transnistria. Today, around 350–400 {Russian} troops with the operational force report directly to the JCC and can be assigned to it at any given time."
3) The JCC. "Following the Transnistria War, the Joint Control Commission {JCC} was established on the initiative of Moldovan and Russian presidents Mircea Snegur and Boris Yeltsin by the signing of a cease-fire agreement on July 21, 1992. It consists of soldiers and officers from Moldovan, Transnistian and Russian military."
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Corruption Perceptions index
https://images.transparencycdn.org/images/CPI2021_Report_EN-web.pdf
Countries scoring equal to or more poorly than Ukraine on the Corruption Perceptions Index of transparency International are:
Equal scoring 32: UKRAINE, Eswatini, {each ranking 122}
scoring 31: Gabon, Mexico, Niger, Papua New Guinea, {each ranking 124}
scoring 30: Azerbaijan, Bolivia, Djibouti, Dominican Republic, Kenya, Laos, Paraguay, Togo, {each ranking 128}
scoring 29: RUSSIA, Angola, Liberia, Mali, {each ranking 136}
Ukraine has a lot of work to do in order to shake off the mantel of corruption that they inherited from the USSR. They have shown, in the period since the invasion and WAR waged against them by RuZZia, that they are committed to their identity, integrity of state, independence and being able to work together as a unified country. I believe that is a demonstration of commitment to the principles of democracy and continuing the move away from that corruption that remained from their period under the USSR and which is still endemic in the present Russian Federation.
"In authoritarian contexts where control rests with a few, social movements are the last remaining check on power. It is the collective power held by ordinary people from all walks of life that will ultimately deliver accountability." statement by Daniel Eriksson Chief Executive Officer, Transparency International Secretariat
Other countries from Higher score to lower {2021}:
88 Denmark, Finland, New Zealand, 85 Norway, Singapore, Sweden, 84 Switzerland, 82 Netherlands, 81 Luxembourg 80 Germany,
** 78 United Kingdom, 74 Austria, Canada, Estonia, Ireland, Iceland, 73 Australia, Belgium, Japan, Uruguay, 71 France,
** 69 United Arab Emirates, 68 Taiwan, 67 United States of America, 62 South Korea, Portugal, 61 Spain, Lithuania,
** 59 Latvia, 57 Slovenia, 56 Italy, Poland 55 Fiji, Georgia, Czech Republic, Malta, Mauritius, 53 Saudi Arabia, 52 Slovakia,
** 47 Croatia, 46 Cuba, 46 Armenia, Greece, Jordan, Namibia, 48 Malaysia, Montenegro, 45 China, Romania, Vanuatu, 44 Jamaica, Tunisia, South Africa, 43 Hungary, Kuwait, 42 Bulgaria, Bahrain, 41 Belarus, 40 India,
** 39 Colombia, Ethiopia, Kosovo, Morocco, North Macedonia, Tanzania, Vietnam, 38 Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, Serbia, Turkey, 37 Kazakhstan, Sri Lanka, 36 Moldova, Panama, Peru, 35 Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Mongolia, Thailand, 33 Algeria, Egypt, Nepal, Philippines, Zambia, 32 Ukraine, 31 Mexico, Papua New Guinea, 30 Azerbaijan, Bolivia, Djibouti, Kenya, Laos, Paraguay,
** 29 Angola, Liberia, Mali, Russia, 28 Myanmar, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, 27 Uganda 26 Bangladesh, Madagascar, Mozambique, 25 Guinea, Guatemala, Iran, Tajikistan, 24 Lebanon, Nigeria, 23 Honduras, Iraq, Cambodia, Zimbabwe, 22 Eritrea, 21 Congo, 20 Haiti, Nicaragua, Sudan, Chad,
** 17 Libya, 16 Afghanistan, North Korea, Yemen, 14 Venezuela, 13 Somalia, Syria, 11 South Sudan
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Your entitled to your point of view.
Personally I think that Ukraine is far more valuable to Europe as a part of Europe, if that is what Ukrainians wish to be a part of, than to be absorbed into the RuZZian Federation. If Ukraine is incorporated into the RuZZian Federation, much of Europe will, with good reason, feel at as much risk as RuZZia claims to be in the reverse situation. I believe that there is far greater risk and chance of other European countries being attacked by RuZZian forces, particularly given RuZZia's performance over the last eight years and more so since February 2022. There appears to be virtually zero risk of Russia being attacked by NATO forces, or those of any other country in Europe or across the Atlantic or the North Pole. From a commercial and financial perspective, there is likely to be a great deal of disruption to and dislocation of trade engagements, if Russia succeeds.
However, no one issue should determine the process by which decisions regarding support for Ukraine are made. Some of the types of issues to be considered are political, social, cultural, commercial and trade, the right of a people to determine their own direction, not having that imposed on them by another counntry.
The world-wide repercussions include the precedent whereby one country can invade and force another country to submit to the will of the invader.
I am sure there are numerous other issues from personal issues to international considerations.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Grozny 1999 - 2000 following the 1994 - 1995 First Battle of Grozny, Chechnya.
The First Battle of Grozny was the Russian Army's invasion and subsequent conquest of the Chechen capital, Grozny, during the early months of the First Chechen War. The attack lasted from December 1994 to March 1995, which resulted in the military occupation of the city by the Russian Army and rallied most of the Chechen nation around the government of Dzhokhar Dudayev.
The Grozny refugee convoy shooting occurred on 3 December 1999, when at least 40 people fleeing the besieged Chechen capital Grozny were reportedly killed by Russian special police units, OMON.
The 1999–2000 battle of Grozny was the siege and assault of the Chechen capital Grozny by Russian forces, lasting from late 1999 to early 2000. This siege and assault of the Chechen capital resulted in the widespread devastation of Grozny. In 2003, the United Nations designated Grozny as the most destroyed city on Earth due to the extensive damage it suffered. The battle had a devastating impact on the civilian population. It is estimated that between 5,000[5] and 8,000[6] civilians were killed during the siege, making it the bloodiest episode of the Second Chechen War.
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine is Victory for the Free World 🇺🇦 Real Peace, Not Appeasement 🇺🇦
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The issue may be that it is just a few bots, always stating the negative position. A few bots can use a lot of pseudonyms to make it look as though there are a lot more people than there really are stating or making comments from the negative view.
I do believe that Jake Broe stated, in the video, he understood that people using English as a second or subsequent language could make similar errors to those that he and I would be likely to make when we were attempting to speak in a language that was not our first, and we sometimes still do in our own first language. So no criticism directed or offence intended in that regard. And definitely no intention to refer to others who are genuinely wishing to speak English as a language which is not their first, as idiots. I use spellchecker a lot, and have to proof-read my own work to avoid errors, even though English is my first language.
However, when you see the same mistake, ostensibly made by a lot of different people, the question arises as to whether it is just a few people or even machines using different names and thus projecting as different people making comments. These are the bots and creeps referred to. In the context of the Ukraine war, I call them putin-bots or cremlin-creeps, emphasising the diminutive.
Normally, I avoid using derogatory terms in my writing, because I do not wish to be critical, without a positive reason and good purpose and do not wish to cause offence. However, some of these -bots and -creeps are there to cause disharmony and inject dis-information. Consequently, If that appears to be their only purpose for existence, I have no qualms about referring to them negatively. On some occasions, where I have made an error in my assessment, the other person and I have engaged in a meaningful, and sometimes enjoyable albeit, brief conversation.
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Budapest Memorandum (1994) the US and UK, AND RUSSIA agreed to security assurances to Ukraine, should they be attacked by any other country. The statement "if Russia invaded." was never included nor directly im[plied in the Budapest Memorandum documents.
Ukraine: The Budapest Memorandum of 1994
The following is the text of the Memorandum on Security Assurances, known as the Budapest Memorandum, in connection with Ukraine’s accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, signed Dec. 5, 1994.
The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,
Welcoming the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a nonnuclear-weapon State,
Taking into account the commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory within a
specified period of time,
Noting the changes in the world-wide security situation, including the end of the Cold War, which have brought about conditions for deep reductions in nuclear forces.
Confirm the following:
1. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE [Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe] Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.
2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
3. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.
4. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.
5. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm, in the case of the Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a state in association or alliance with a nuclear weapon state.
6.The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments.
This Memorandum will become applicable upon signature.
Signed in four copies having equal validity in the
English, Russian and Ukrainian languages.
There were separate Memoranda prepared and signed for Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
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They do not care about each other, it appears that they also do not even care about themselves.
The paraphrased expression from biblical sources comes to mind,
"Love one another as you love yourselves". The corollary of which is, that we need to love ourselves in order to love others, and possibly,
we cannot love others more than we can appreciate and value ourselves.
These are ideas that I endeavour to apply in my own life, not in prideful ways, but in constructive appreciation and value building. If we are of no value, then we are also in the eyes of God, of no value; which I do not believe to be true.
In the present context, it appears that the Russians ascribe no value to their own lives nor to the lives of others.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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The Russian "2nd strongest military in the world" has proved itself to be otherwise. Consider the retreats, withdrawals and routs from Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson. All this when Russia was at its highest strength, during 2022.
Kherson, where Putin and the Russian political, military and media establishment said "Russia would be forever." A few weeks later, the Russians withdrew from the city of Kherson and retreated to the left bank of the Dnieper River, where they are now being pursued by the Ukrainians.
{The Russian Armed Forces, which had occupied the city since 2 March 2022, withdrew and retreated to the Left-Bank of the Kherson Oblast over the course of 9–11 November 2022.}
And all of this occurred before most of the more advanced NATO specification hardware was supplied to Ukraine in 2023 and NATO training of Ukrainian military personnel had been completed. Some may question why there have not been greater advances by the Ukrainians. As one commenter wrote, "Why move when the enemy simply keeps running into your fist". A fairly simple but graphic illustration of attritional warfare.
Russia may have greater numbers of men to fill their ranks, but they would hardly be referred to as "superior" when matched against Ukrainian, NATO Defensive Alliance trained, and other experienced personnel. As much as half of Russia's better trained VDV {paratroops} (1)(2)(3) have already been eliminated in the WAR against Ukraine. Russia has even gone to the extent, in desperation last year, of sending their military trainers to the front lines. Consequently, the reason that most of the recently mobilised personnel are considered to have only very basic and limited preparation for combat. The more experienced and qualified personnel are favoured as backing troops, while recent conscripts, particularly from the outer ethnic regions of the Russian Federation, are used in "meat-wave attacks". Another example, in addition to Ukraine, of Russian genocide.
The producers and manufacturers of the so-called Russian "modern military hardware" appear to be approaching the stage where they will accomplish very few sales in the future, because so much of their hardware has failed in it primary function. For example, air-defense systems that are annihilated by the very missiles that they are supposed to intercept. The same applies to their tanks {Amata, T-90 and 72's, etc.}. In addition to hardware performance issues, Russia's WAR against Ukraine has created logistical problems in being able to manufacture and supply military hardware for other countries.
"India and Russia have had a long-standing security cooperation partnership, with India relying heavily on Russian weapons and equipment for its armed forces. However, Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, launched the Make in India initiative in 2014 {interesting to note the year, 2014} to develop the country’s defense industry and reduce dependence on imports. The war in Ukraine has caused India to accelerate this process and end negotiations or cancel agreements with Russia on several weapon system acquisitions."
Source: Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs.
(1) The heavy losses of an elite Russian regiment in Ukraine By Mark Urban, Diplomatic and defence editor, Newsnight
2 April 2022 Russia-Ukraine war
Image caption, Some of the 39 Russian soldiers from the 331st regiment who are known to have died
"In any war, there are units that distinguish themselves and others that become symbolic of failure. The 331st Guards Parachute Regiment had high hopes of being the first, but now represents the disintegration of Russia's plan for a quick war.
"The regiment's commanding officer, Col Sergei Sukharev, was killed in Ukraine on 13 March 2022, and was posthumously awarded the Hero of the Russian Federation medal. At his funeral, deputy defence minister Gen Yuri Sadovenko said the colonel "lived for the future, for the future of our people, a future without Nazism". {Possibly he died because of Russian Nazism}
Image caption, Col Sergei Sukharev, commander of the Kostroma 331st regiment, was also killed .
Image (source, GTRK-Kostroma)
"Casualties among Russian forces are not widely reported in Russia itself, but using open source material, the BBC has pieced together the story of their advance, and found that at least 39 other members of the elite 331st regiment have died."
"The men were part of a column that advanced into Ukraine from Belarus, led by Russia's airborne forces, known by the acronym VDV. Their presence underlined the priority of their objective - advancing on the capital, Kyiv." "That advance swiftly got drawn into a destructive stalemate in districts on the outskirts of Kyiv which soon became synonymous with the viciousness of the war: Bucha, Irpin, and Hostomel."
"Videos that emerged online from these battles showed combat vehicles used by Russian airborne forces with "V" signs painted onto them."
(2) "A top Russian general's rare admission that his elite paratroopers suffered heavy casualties in Ukraine was mysteriously removed" Jake Epstein Aug 4, 2023, 2:52 AM GMT+8
Image caption: Russian paratroopers during celebrations on Paratroopers Day and Saint Ilyas' Day in front of the Spasskaya Tower on Red Square in Moscow on Wednesday. AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko
--- A top Russian general admitted his elite paratroopers suffered thousands of casualties in Ukraine.
--- But shortly after his disclosure went public, it was mysteriously removed from the internet.
--- Acknowledgment of war losses is rare in Russia, and Moscow often downplay its casualty figures.
"A top Russian general admitted this week that his elite paratroopers suffered thousands of casualties while fighting in Ukraine, only for his disclosure to then be mysteriously removed from the internet."
"It's a rare admission from a senior figure in Moscow's military leadership, which often goes to great lengths to avoid acknowledging or to conceal its battlefield failures, setbacks, and overall losses."
"Col. Gen. Mikhail Teplinsky, commander of Russia's VDV Airborne Forces, disclosed Wednesday that at least 8,500 of his troops had been wounded in Ukraine since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion more than 17 months ago. The number could actually be significantly higher. The Moscow Times reported on Thursday that Teplinsky's video remarks were initially published to Zvezda, a broadcaster run by the Russian defense ministry."
(3) "Ukraine’s army commander claims 3 elite Russian brigades ‘crushed’ in east"
"Ukraine’s ground forces commander General Oleksandr Syrskyi claims three Russian brigades left with no combat capabilities after fighting in east around Bakhmut."
Image Caption: "An assault unit commander from the 3rd Assault Brigade who goes by the call sign 'Fedia' raises the Ukrainian flag as a symbol of liberation of the frontline village of Andriivka, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023."
"The 3rd Assault Brigade announced Friday they had recaptured the war-ravaged settlement which lies 10 kilometers (6 miles) south of Russian-occupied city of Bakhmut, in the country's embattled east.
(AP Photo/Alex Babenko)
"The general in command of Ukrainian ground forces said his troops have routed three of the best Russian brigades fighting on the front lines in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine.
"General Oleksandr Syrskyi also said on Monday that the recapture of two eastern Ukrainian villages in recent days – Klishchiivka and Andriivka, both of which are located on higher ground near the destroyed town of Bakhmut – was an important breakthrough."
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I am over 70 yrs of age and I become more and more distressed by what I hear of the actions and attacks perpetrated by and in the name of Russia. Even my dog can sense my distress. I am nowhere near the areas in which the defence of families, communities and country is being valiantly and courageously fought by the Ukrainians, both on the front-lines, in hospitals and all other places and countries where those most vulnerable are being assisted and supported. However, to be perceived and understood, pain and distress has to be felt.
The recognition of the Holodomor, as a genocide of Ukrainians particularly, despite the unpleasant circumstances for which reason it is presently being recalled, is something about which I am pleased. This WAR has given many of us a time to reflect on the worst and the best in humanity. Let us not, in our anger and distress, forget the best that can be shown and achieved among us humans in our families, communities, countries and internationally.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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The Ukrainians appear to me to have a clear sense of sovereignty and identity. Yes, the correlation between the intention and actions of the upper echelons of the Russian political and military establishment and those of Hitler and the Nazi party is apt
I believe that the Ukrainian separatist movement was initiated, fomented and actively supported by Russian regular army forces from as early as 2013, possibly before. That method fits right into the way that Russia has created similar situations in Chechny, Georgia, Transnistria, Ukraine and others. You may care to look at:
List of wars involving Russia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia
If you look at the circumstances preceding many of these wars, the early events are similar to what we have seen in Ukraine since 2013. Subsequent events, during the conflicts have often included wholesale destruction of complete cities, such as Grozny in Chechnya. The same as is now happening in Ukraine. This process, applied in Ukraine, is no less devastating.
🇺🇦💛💙❤ 🇺🇦✌🏻❤🇦🇺🕊{Graphics borrowed}
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I have seen it said, if the Ukrainian leadership in Kyiv were to indicate a willingness to concede, in any way, to Russia's demands, that the Ukrainans, despite the privations and difficulties they are currently experiencing, would mount vigorous protests against any such suggestion or decision.
From the majority of comments, on many sites, it appears also, that there would be similar protests from the people of many other countries, to support the Ukrainians in their opposition to such concessions, in favour of continuing their efforts to push the RuZZians out of all internationally recoginsed Ukrainian territory.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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* Some people, particularly those cheering for the Russian position, are claiming the relinquishing of Bakhmut, by the Ukrainians, as a significant victory for Russia. However, I would offer a few points for consideration in order to bring this "capture" of territory into some sort of perspective.
The capture of the place where the city of Bakhmut lay has been referred to as a pyrrhic victory; that is, a victory with little or no value to the "victor" and at a an immensely disproportionate cost in terms of the lives lost to the "victorious" army. "A Pyrrhic victory is a victory that inflicts such a devastating toll on the victor that it is tantamount to defeat. Such a victory negates any true sense of achievement or damages long-term progress. Wikipedia" Perhaps, as has been said, Bakhmut has, in this way, served the Ukrainians well from a military perspective, and protected other towns and cities further away from the front lines.
When viewed in relation to the retreats, withdrawals, and routs of Russian forces from Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson, which some seem to have conveniently forgotten or deliberately overlooked, the location of Bakhmut was always of relatively little value except, possibly, to the people who once lived there. There certainly appears to be nothing of value to the victors where the city of Bakhmut once stood. In fact, it may even be considered a liability and a sponge for resources.
All these retreats occurred despite Russians and their insurgent and insurrectionist, so-called "separatists", holding Crimea and much of the Donbas region since 2014.
POPULATIONS: Bakhmut Population: ~70,000; Kyiv Population: 2.884 million (2017) Kharkiv Population: 1.419 million (2017) Kherson Population: 289,697 (2017); Sumy Population: 264,753 (2017)
** KYIV, ** 4 April 2022
With heavy losses and the inability to make further progress, Russia withdrew its forces from Kyiv and Zhytomyr oblasts in April 2022, and Ukrainian forces retook control.
Kremlin officials have announced plans to withdraw troops from the Kyiv region in what is widely being seen as tacit recognition of Russia’s failure to seize the Ukrainian capital. The Russian retreat from Kyiv is the strongest signal to date that Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine War is not going according to plan.
Speaking on March 29, and in an apparent attempt to spare Putin’s blushes, Fomin said the move was aimed at “increasing mutual trust, creating the right conditions for future negotiations, and reaching the final goal of signing a peace deal with Ukraine.” What an absolute parody of the real situation that Russia had created and continues to pursue.
** SUMY, ** 4 April 2022
The Battle of Sumy was a military engagement which began on 24 February 2022, during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, as part of the Northeastern Ukraine offensive, and ended on 4 April 2022 when Russia withdrew all of its forces from Sumy Oblast.
** KHARKIV, ** 13 September 2022
Russian forces have been 'ordered to retreat' from Kharkiv and the advancing Ukrainian troops, as some Russians leave weapons behind in ‘apparent panic’.
The Russian troops are to focus instead, on defending their position in the eastern Donbas region, according to western intelligence sources.
Ukrainian forces have reclaimed more than two thousand square miles of territory as they continue their counter-offensive, the country’s president Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday, regaining key locations in the Kharkiv region.
** KHERSON, ** 9 November 2022
After Russian troops seized Kherson in March, they were ordered to retreat from Kherson in face of Ukrainian advance. Loss of the only regional capital captured by Moscow since invasion began will come as significant blow to Vladimir Putin.
The retreat occurred only weeks after a high-profile ceremony in Moscow in which he announced the “forever” annexation of the Kherson region, along with three others.
Even before they pulled off their jaw-dropping counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region, Ukrainian troops had thrashed Russian forces in the Kherson region 600 kilometers to the southwest, aided by powerful and precise Western weaponry.
The powerful and precise weaponary, that Ukraine has in inventory and available within other countries, has increased massively in quantity and qualitative value since November last year. While I do not think it is possible to accurately evaluate what is Russia's present military strength, the Russian military strength is, most likely now, significantly less than it had availavble in the fourth quarter of 2022. While Ukraine's capacity is increasing, I believe that Russia's capacity is decreasing at an unsustainable rate. ?
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The Ukrainians appear to me to have a clear sense of sovereignty and identity. The correlation between the intention and actions of the upper echelons of the Russian political and military establishment and those of Hitler and the Nazi party is apt.
It is known that firepower and technology does not outweigh the power of a people who believe in themselves and have a right to hold their own land against the offensive invasion by another country. Whatever "type of stuff Russia have" will not succeed against will-power, particularly when the odds are fairly balanced.
I believe that the Ukrainian separatist movement was initiated, fomented and actively supported by Russian regular army forces from as early as 2013, possibly before. That method fits right into the way that Russia has created similar situations in Chechny, Georgia, Transnistria, Ukraine and others. You may care to look at:
List of wars involving Russia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia
If you look at the circumstances preceding many of these wars, the early events are similar to what we have seen in Ukraine since 2013. Subsequent events, during the conflicts have often included wholesale destruction of complete cities, such as Grozny in Chechnya and in Syria. The same as is now happening in Ukraine. This is not new or perculiar to the aituation in Ukraine, though no less devastating.
🇺🇦💛💙❤ 🇺🇦✌🏻❤🇦🇺🕊{Graphics borrowed}
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* Plan for Russian Invasion of Europe *
{This is a long post. Please move on if not interested.}
Russia's revanchist ideas about re-establishing the USSR, or the same by any other name, clearly indicate that Putin and the Russian political, military and media establishment would attack NATO countries. It would be necessary to do so in order to achieve the stated intentions, goals and objectives of Putin and the Russian establishment.
Russia is highly unlikely to display maps of its future plans to invade any country in advance. With regard to Russia's invasion and WAR, waged against Ukraine, Russia even stated, right up to the day, that there was no reason to invade Ukraine {a second time} and that Russia would not do so. Yet that is exactly what Russia did, with less than 24 hours notice.
In the following treatise, I have referred to the Google "Map Of Europe."
The countries to the East of Russia are not the only ones at imminent risk, but also the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and also Poland, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. Given the current political situation in Hungary and Slovakia, either or both of those countries could possibly capitulate following successful attacks, by the Russians, on Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria.
It is not a matter of what Russia is ABLE to do. It is really a question whether Russia, delusionally {in the strict sense of the word, to my way of thinking}, or in spite of Russia's apparent ignorance of their real and inadequate military capacity against that of the NATO Defensive Alliance {32 countries} and other supporting countries {about 30 at present}, believe that they can achieve their stated goals and objectives of re-instituting the former USSR, by that or any other name. And we know that the intended "revanchism" has been stated by Putin and others in Russia, directly and implicitly.
To accomplish Russia's intentions, goals and objectives, Russia would have to attack NATO Defensive Alliance member countries. First, Moldova, {not an Alliance member country}, then connecting with Transnistria (1), on the long {approx 200 km} North-Eastern border between Ukraine and Moldova, where ~500 or more {OGRF} (2) Russian military personnel are said to be stationed. Then Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO Alliance member countries, but difficult to support from the West because of the Carpathian Mountains and, if they chose to support Russia, Hungary and Slovakia to the North-West.
This portion of the {possible} Russian plan would have to be completed by surprise and with guile, subterfuge and speed, which we know to be trade-marks of the Russian style. At this stage, with the
-- Eastern portions of Ukraine, illegally occupied and controlled by the Russians;
-- Georgia, on the Eastern side of the Black Sea, effectively hobbled;
-- Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria secured;
-- the only other country with a Black Sea coastline is Turkey.
The question would then arise as to how much soft economic, or hard military pressure Russia would have to impose to make Turkey compliant to Russia's wishes and intentions. At which time, the Azov and Black Seas become, effectively, a Russian Azov/Black Sea lake.
NATO Defensive Alliance, Article 5.
The key section of the NATO Defensive Alliance treaty is Article 5. Its commitment clause defines the "casus foederis". It commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state, in the areas defined by Article 6, to be an armed attack against them all.
The Russians, having accomplished their goal of control of the Black Sea, will have effectively covered the Southern flank of any possible attack against them as they proceed East via the Suwałki Gap, through Belarus and the border between Poland and Lithuania. Though, by this time, the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries will have been fully mobilised, under NATO Article 5, as a result of attacks on Romania and Bulgaria. Troops from NATO member countries would then be free to cross and operate within the Polish and Ukrainian borders {with the permission and approval of each country} against the Russians. It is not surprising that Poland has strengthened their defenses on their Northern and Eastern borders.
The Suwałki Gap may be considered and has been referred to as the "THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE ON EARTH. In a showdown between Russia and NATO, the 'Suwałki Gap' would likely be the first point of contact. By Matthew Karnitschnig in Druskininkai, Lithuania".
The Russians would then likely mount an assault on the 100 km {~60 mile} Suwałki Gap, between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. The Russians have conventional and, it is generally believed, nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad. Russia is also understood to have moved nuclear weapons into Belarus. With the Suwałki Gap secured, Russia will have successfully divided the Southern European countries from the Northern Baltic and Scandinavian countries. Russia will also have carved a direct route from Russia to the Baltic Sea, through Belarus and the Suwałki Gap. Then Russia will attack the very small countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
In Russia's attempts to accomplish these goals and objectives, and irrespective of their success or failure, Russia could be the cause of hundreds of thousands {possibly millions} of deaths of civilians and military personnel and massive levels of destruction. All of which we have already seen, as a result of Russian military actions in Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and other countries. However, future outcomes of Russia's aggression could be on a very much larger scale, without any compunction or moral scruple of any sort on Putin's or Russia's part.
Russia's claim is, "The only rule of WAR is the outcome", which is a direct counter to, and repudiation of all the international agreements to which Russia is signatory. But, we have already seen, on numerous occasions, that Russia has no regard for Agreements, Memoranda and Treaties when they do not match with Russia's immediate perceived intentions, needs or wishes.
The issue is not whether Russia can subjugate, subordinate and dominate other countries, but instead, the death and destruction that Russia will cause in attempting to achieve those goals and objectives. All the death and destruction in Ukraine is intended to intimidate, not only Ukrainians, but also the populations in Western Europe. Presumably, in an effort to "encourage" or "persuade" Europeans to sacrifice Ukraine {and possibly other smaller countries} with the intention of saving themselves from a similar fate to that imposed by the Russians on Ukraine. However, such a sacrifice will not save Western Europeans, but rather, will just postpone the inevitable future attacks by Russia. Particularly as Russia gets stronger with each conquest.
We have also seen that Russia seems oblivious to the difference between the combined resources of the NATO Defensive Alliance of 32 countries, and the 30 additional countries assisting and supporting Ukraine, by contrast with Russia's own resources as well as other resources available to Russia from Iran, North Korea, possibly China and any other countries that may support Russia.
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Do you really believe that the issues you have described will change with some additional security against "border porosity". Unfortunately, I believe that there are some in the Republican party who, rather than using negotiation and compromise to achieve their goals, simply want to blackmail the incumbent government and the people of the US.
Consider that this is the same tactic that is being used by the Russians in Ukraine and against other countries in Europe. The effects and consequences for European countries and, to no lesser extent, the US, could be disastrous. The outcomes could make "border porosity", on the Southern border of the US, almost diminish to insignificance by comparrison. And it is wise to remember, that once concessions are given to a blackmailer, whether Republican or Russian, will just be the beginning and lead to a never ending cycle.
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Russia claimed that it waged its “operation” {WAR} for the following reasons:
1. to Protect the Russian speaking Ukrainians – whom the Russians have proceeded to kill, and make the survivors homeless, destitute and refugees. In addition to those people the Russians have attacked civilian infrastructure and property throughout the rest of Ukraine.
2. to de-Nazify Ukraine - Is there a greater percentage of "Nazis" in the Ukrainian population than in any other country, or even in Russia? I very much doubt that there would be such a significantly greater proportion of the Ukrainian population that could be identified as Nazis than in other countries.
3. demilitarise Ukraine - despite Russia knowing that Ukraine had been militarily neutered, or castrated, as a result of Ukraine's compliance with the Budapest Memorandum, signed by Russia, the UK and the US on the 5 December 1994, when all three countries promised to not attack Ukraine {Belarus or Kazakhstan} or exert economic, political or military pressure on Ukraine {Belarus or Kazakhstan}, and that they would come to the aid of Ukraine {Belarus or Kazakhstan} if they were attacked by any country. As we are aware, Russia attacked Ukraine and the UK, the US and more that 50 other countries are presently assisting and supporting Ukraine.
4. concern about the perceived or real encroachment of the NATO defensive alliance into areas where Russia has interests - despite Russia having nuclear weapons at Kaliningrad, virtually in the middle of Europe. Russia is also just over the North pole from Alaska, Canada and the US. Distance is no longer a barrier against attack, by any of the major "nuclear armed countries" on any other country of the world. Least of all Russia, China and the US;
and the greatest furphy of all:
5. the de-satinisation of Ukraine, added on the 22 October 2022 - Russia's WAR has become a holy WAR.
How, with the nebulous objectives that Russia has stated, can there be found any ground on which to discuss achievement or satisfaction of Russia's stated or unstated, perceived or real concerns, aims and objectives in such a way as would lead to an end to this WAR ?
It appeared, right from the start, that Russia had ulterior motives for beginning the WAR against Ukraine. Motives that they have not already stated or have stated in such ways that must be considered practically unachievable and therefore not obvious to people outside the inner circle of the Russian political and military establishment of Moscow.
Given these considerations, there appears to be no grounds on which any other country, most of all Ukraine, can propose conditions by which Russia's stated or unstated concerns may be alleviated and the WAR brought to an end. I believe this is exactly the way that Russia wants it. In this way, Russia can always bleat the lie that "Russia is ready to negotiate, but others do not wish to do so." Catch 22
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Many people are saying, "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed". What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is that:
#** February 2022 Russia had nearly 3 times as many tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
Russia 3,400 tanks Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
Russia 990 tanks Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
Russia 2,200 Artillery/Heavy guns Ukraine 1,900 Artillery/Heavy guns {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
Russia 773 Artillery/Heavy guns Ukraine 1,100 Artillery/Heavy guns {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
Russia 1,100 MLRS Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Today, the numbers of MLRS are:
Russia 354 MLRS Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of nearly 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware. That may well have been greater because of levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in each of the categories above. Ukraine has depleted much of Russia's hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads and bridges that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
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I hear what many people are saying about support from the US and understand many of the sentiments conveyed. However, I also believe it would be irresponsible and dangerous to disregard and isolalate the USA, particularly when they are experiencing their own political turmoil and trauma. Though there have been some deaths, the trauma is mainly experienced by people seeing everything they worked for and believed in being challenged and threatened.
If the "worst political outcomes occur", the fallout will have significant impact, not only in the US, but on the rest of the world. People of the USA also need our support, particularly those who are genuine and prepared to fight to retain responsible govvernment.
Yes !!! It is always a good idea not to rely on -them- others to solve all of our problems. It is fabulous when they are there when their assistance is needed. But let us not simply be "fair-weather friends".
The USA is definitely going through "a time of trial" at the present time. Rather than turn our backs on them, we need to support the people of the USA. I say this as an Australian. It is reassuring to note the appreciation expressed by Americans of the USA when people of other countries offer support and encouragement through comments in these pages. I have no doubt that appreciation is offered by very few MAGA Trump cultists, but mostly by people of the USA who are committed to the principles in the Constitution and the care and maintenance of responsible government.
With Best Wishes,
PNH 🇺🇸 💙 🇺🇦 💛 🇦🇺 {and so many others also}
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@murphy7801 With the "escape" of more than 1 million young men, many accompanied by their female companions, in addition to the losses through conscription, which are compounded by the deaths of so many in this pointless WAR, I conservatively estimate a 12% contraction of the Russian GDP, in the coming year. That loss, I believe, may increase, possibly significantly, during the next 5 to 10 years.
Presumably, the Russian political and military establishment have no qualms about the abduction and relocation of, as many as 200,000 children from Ukraine to recognised Russian territory. These young people may be intended to replace the more ethnically identifiable people who are being conscripted or mobilised into military service, many of whom, the majority even, will die fighting in this WAR waged by Russia against Ukraine.
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Nominal effect. Given that other more significant events, such as the destruction, by Russia, of the NordStream Pipeline have not had more than very short term impact on oil and gas prices. There are sufficient producers in the market to ensure constant levels of supply and therefore price stability.
Some countries, such as Saudi Arabia, have actually purchased Russian oil for storage. This has artificially reduced supply of Russian oil to the wider market. In this way, costs and returns to different countries can be manipulated.
{How do you stabilize oil market?
Security of demand must go hand-in-hand with security of supply as a means of achieving market stability, since, without the confidence that predictable, reliable demand for oil will emerge, the incentive to undertake the necessary investments can be significantly reduced.}
{The kingdom (of Saudi Arabia) has ramped up fuel oil imports from Russia this year following the European Union's ban on Russian products. Saudi's Russian fuel oil imports hit 2.86 million metric tons for the first half of 2023, exceeding the 1.63 million metric tons for all of 2022, the data showed. 12 July 2023}
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I am certain that the US and the UK are in the process of supporting Ukraine. A "feint" does not only exist on the battleground.
The US and the UK are living up to their part of the Budapest Memorandum agreement in aiding Ukraine! 🇺🇦
It just doesn't have to be obvious to everyone, especially the Russians, nor to us, the general public. And anyone knowing what is planned is most certainly not going to air that knowledge out here.
There are 60 or more countries in the coalition/conference assisting and supporting Ukraine. We, on the outside of that coalition/conference, do not necessarily need, and probably should not know what is going on and being planned and discussed in the "WAR ROOM".
I have my own ideas about what the Russians are planning. These ideas may be the same as the ideas of other people. We need to be prepared for a whole range of possiblities and the following is just one of those possibilities.
Russia could gain Odesa, via the Danube back door through Moldova {also not a NATO Defensive Alliance member} and Transnistria {the long beige strip bordering Moldova and Ukraine, along almost the full length of the SouthWestern border of the Odesa Oblast} and the ~1500 Russian troops based there.
Then, onto Romania and Bulgaria, with Moldova, all wedged between the Black Seato the East, and the Pyrenees and the Carpathian Mountains to the West. Those very high mountains, especially in winter time, will need some significant logistics for Free World troops, hardware and equipment, to be able to cross in a timely manner, to defend those countries. Remembering that WAR ships and materials cannot, at this time, be sailed through the Bosporus Strait.
Should Russia gain the so-called land bridge, those three countries, and also Georgia on the Eastern side of the Black Sea, then the Black and Azov Seas would be virtually captive to Russia. How much pressure would it take to force Turkey, with their Northern border to the Black Sea, to open the Bosporus Strait for Russian commercial and navy ships and submarines.
Then the Suwalki Gap between Belarus and Kaliningrad, a distance of just 100 km or 60 miles. Easy to websearch. Said in one article to be "THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE ON EARTH. In a showdown between Russia and NATO, the 'Suwałki Gap' would likely be the first point of contact."
Then Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Europe effectively divided. And Ukraine; at the very least, the Eastern "so-called" land bridge, between Rostov-on-Don and Odesa; is the key to that whole plan. Consequently, I believe Russia will put all their resources into attemting to capture that "so-called" land bridge, possibly placing less military emphasis on the Regions to the North of Rostov-on-Don .
Russia has clearly stated these aims, goals and objectives, through Putin, Peskov, Lavrov and the rest of the Russian political, military and media establishment.
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The potential and possibility of Russia attacking NATO member countries
People believe that Russia would not attack NATO Defensive Alliance member countries. I think that belief is simply naive.
No !! Unfortunately, I am not joking. Anything but joking.
What difference does it make to Russia whether it is Ukraine or any of the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries? Putin and the Russian political, military and media establishment have clearly stated their intention to re-acquire and re-integrate the former USSR.
We, in the Free World, may reasonably have faith in the purpose, intentions, integrity and capacity of the NATO Defensive alliance to perform the role for which it was initially established on 4 April 1949.
{The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was created in 1949 by the United States, Canada, and several Western European nations to provide collective security against the Soviet Union. NATO was the first peacetime military alliance the United States entered into outside of the Western Hemisphere.}
However, do we really believe that Russia, by delusion, ignorance or sheer brazenness, is really worried or concerned about the NATO Defensive Alliance? Quite apart from the reality, they may even believe their own propaganda, in which case, the answer would very likely be an emphatic, "NO !!!"
No matter what we may believe. I think the Russians, unless completely defeated in Ukraine, including Crimea and the Donbas, are likely to attempt to attack other countries, NATO Defensive Alliance member countries or not.
If Ukraine falls, despite the assistance and support of 60 or more countries, Russia will consider that the present 31 NATO Defensive Alliance member countries will also be as weak in defending other NATO Defensive Alliance countries, particularly the smaller ones. Indeed, I see Ukraine as a test, by Russia, of the resolve of the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries and the rest of the countries of the Free World.
"As of 2023, NATO consists of 31 member countries spanning across North America and Europe. These nations have forged a collective commitment to mutual defence and security, fostering cooperation in military, political and strategic realms.
8 Nov 2023"
Russia would perform their usual actions, in attacks on other countries, of infiltration by unidentified military troops, as they did in Crimea, followed by regular military units. At present the Russians already illegally occupy Transnistria, between Moldova and Ukraine. We surely cannot believe that Russia will play by the Free World rule book.
Consider the map of Europe.
First Moldova {not yet a NATO Defensive Alliance member}, then Romania and Bulgaria {both NATO Defensive Alliance members.} and control of both would enlarge and enhance Russia's control of the Black Sea.
Part of the reason that Ukraine is important to Russia is that it provides relatively easy access for military formations from the West to reach Russia. And, therefore, for Russia to use as that "buffer zone" of which the Russians regularly speak, within which they can fight off any "invading" troops from the West, offensive or defensive.
In the countries South of that access route, between Poland in the West and Russia to the East of Ukraine, any Russian offensive against Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria is protected by the Carpathian and Pyrenees Mountains that would make it especially difficult for any defending Western troops to reach Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria, in a timely fashion with sufficient troops, hardware and munitions.
The Tatra Mountains (pronouncedⓘ), Tatras, or Tatra, are a series of mountains within the Western Carpathians that form a natural border between Slovakia and Poland. They are the highest mountains in the Carpathians. The Tatras are distinct from the Low Tatras (Slovak: Nízke Tatry), a separate Slovak mountain range further south.
In the northern Balkans are the Carpathian mountains, which reach great heights in Transylvania, the western part of Romania. There are many other smaller ranges of mountains and hills as well.
Then, on the Black Sea, with Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria, in the West, and Georgia, in the East, controlled by Russia, Russia will have control of the Black Sea, except for the Northern coastline of Turkey.
How much pressure would Russia put on Turkey and which direction do you think Turkey may turn with regard to access for Russian commercial and military ships, to the Bosphorus Strait, if Russia controls the Azov Sea and the rest of the Black Sea?
Then, with a compliant Ukraine and Belarus, the next target would be the Suwalki Gap, between Belarus and Kaliningrad. The objective would be to physically connect Russia with Kaliningrad via the Suwalki Gap. There is just 65 km {or 40 miles} across the gap between Kaliningrad and Belarus.
Until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Poland's only eastern and northern neighbour was the USSR, thus, as in the interwar period, the region mattered little in military terms.
This changed after 1991, when Kaliningrad Oblast became a semi-exclave of Russia, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, both of which are neighbours with Belarus, but neither Poland nor Lithuania has a direct border with the "mainland" part of Russia {until Russia establishes and maintains control of both Ukraine and Belarus}.
The immediate neighbours of the Kaliningrad Oblast, Poland and Lithuania, both entered the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Defensive Alliance, but at the same time, only 65 km (40 mi) of Polish territory separates two areas of the rival {to NATO} Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Union State of Belarus and Russia. We may also recall that Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine were signatories, with the "protectors", Russia, the UK and the US, to the Budapest Memorandum of 1994.
{ The Union State, or Union State of Russia and Belarus, is a supranational union consisting of Belarus and Russia, with the stated aim of deepening the relationship between the two states through integration in economic and defence policy.}
The former Estonian President, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, claims to have come up with the name "Suwałki Gap" before his meeting with Ursula von der Leyen, then serving as the defence minister of Germany, in April 2015, to highlight the vulnerability of the area for the Baltic states.
The next steps would be North to take Lithuania, Latvia and then Estonia. This would give the Russians significant influence in the Baltic Sea again.
It would be interesting to know what is stored in the massive concrete bunkers, built by the Nazis in WW2, in what is now Kaliningrad. It is also generally understood that the Russians have some type of nuclear weapons housed at Kaliningrad.
Unfortunately, No, I am not joking.
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Unfortunately, there are excesses, such as Musk's apparent intervention in the Ukrainian attacks on the Russian Black Sea fleet. However, in our democracies, all people have a right to hold and present their opinions. Some of those opinions may not be palatable to many of us. However, it is better that they remain in the open, rather than "going underground" and being far more difficult to follow.
By going underground, it has been demonstrated that some views and organisations actually become stronger and more virulent in their projection of vile, vitriolic and malevolent speech and behaviours.
In addition to the internal machinations and activities of organisations and bodies, being in the open allows people holding different points of view to be aware of the existence, pervasiveness and types of alternative views held by others, whether friendly and sympathetic, or oppositional and possibly antagonistic, from any perspective.
Therefore, I believe that it is important for people to be able to hold and express, in public, whatever views they believe are appropriate in the circumstances in which they exist. That is unlike authoratarian regimes, where any views that are contrary or different from those of the regime are carefully quashed by punishment of various forms and even death.
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Rapid End to WAR & Attrition of Military Resources.
Many people are saying, "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed". But quicker may be neither advantageous nor save lives and, or infrastructure.
#** February 2022 Russia had nearly 3 times as many tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
Russia 3,400 tanks Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023, Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
Russia 990 tanks Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
Russia 2,200 Artillery/Heavy guns Ukraine 1,900 Artillery/Heavy guns {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023, the Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
Russia 773 Artillery/Heavy guns Ukraine 1,100 Artillery/Heavy guns {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
Russia 1,100 MLRS Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023, the numbers of MLRS are:
Russia 354 MLRS Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Plus the massive advantage of the Russians in air-power and navy assets in Feb 2022, that has been diminished at a less rapid rate.
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of nearly 3:1 against Ukraine, in terms of military hardware and trained military personnel {possibly more for personnel}. That may well have been greater because of levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms, and the elements of logistics and supply. The additional air-power and navy assets would also have been advantageous to the Russians.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories of land-based assets above {though not air-craft and Navy assets}. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops, massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads and bridges that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
Russia's military asset base is diminishing, and likely to continue to do so, despite assistance from other countries.
The military capacity of Ukraine will likely be maintained despite hardware losses which will be repaired or replaced. In some categories, Ukraine's qualitative capacity and numerical quantity of weapons and hardware is likely to increase as scope for improvements are identified.
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Hello Corina King and others reading these comments,
You have offered your thoughts and concerns about the commencement of this invasion and the possible actions of the people involved. Like you, I have admired the Ukrainian response from Pesident Zelensky and the people who inform, support and advise him in this WAR, to the population of Ukraine for their patience, stoicism and determination, and the military personnel both on the front line and the support positions that provide the information for the conduct required to maintain and progress the military defensive and counter-offensive positions.
I also particularly admire the women, who are predominantly the care givers to children and the aged and those who have joined the ground troops and their support echelons. Many of these people have had to leave their homes, and areas that would normally provide them with a sense of support and security, to other centres of population within ukraine and in countries supporting Ukraine. Many have had to leave their fathers, husbands, partners and sons who have remained in situations that are perilous and life threatening.
Your question regarding the initial entry of military vehicles and "machines of war" into Ukraine is a question to which I may be able to offer some insght. I hope that it may be informative.
It is my understanding that there had been military exercises in Belarus, conducted adjacent to the borders with Ukraine, for at least two years before the invasion. This meant that there were continual troop movements to and from the training areas. However, while there had been a continual build up of support vehicles, armoured personnel carriers, tanks and other hardware and equipment that remained in the training areas, it would not have been unusual to see a relatively large number of troops moving to or from the training areas at any given time.
I understand that there was such a movement of troops onto the areas, just prior to the offensive. Prisoners of war, (POW's) have spoken of travelling for two days and more to reach these areas by the time of the offensive. Some POW's have said that they were told they were being transported to an exercise area. They had to hand in any phones or other instruments of communication prior to the time that they had first been informed of the purpose of the travel and for some, they only knew of their destination when they were actually in Ukraine. This was so that, if they became aware of their destination and purpose, they would not be able to call family or friends in Ukraine, to alert them and thereby ruin the element of surprise that was advantageous to the RuZZians. Consequently, many did not know the purpose of the trip, or destination, till they were actually inside Ukraine.
I believe that the initial ground troops entered Ukraine at night and would have taken border guards by surprise and in overwhelming numbers. It was intended that the ground troops would meet with the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) at Hostomel airport, providing them with support and enabling more troops to be airlifted into the airport. I would presume that the intention would have been to create a defended corridor between the airport and the Belarusian border.
Putin had only given a few hours notice by the announcement of the "special military operation" in Ukraine. Thereby, taking as much advantage of the element of surprise as the RuZZians could.
The arrival of the ground troops to support the airborne troops at the airport did not happen as planned, and the initial RuZZian airborne troops were encircled by the Ukrainian troops. The ground troops and their vehicles became caught in a "traffic jam" of their own vehicles:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Kyiv_convoy
"The Russian Kyiv convoy was a large column of Russian military vehicles stretching some 64 kilometres (40 mi) involved in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has been noted for initially threatening Kyiv, but then halting due to unclear reasons."
The desription of the invasion follows in the paragraphs that I have extracted from:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport
"The Battle of Antonov Airport, also known as the Battle of Hostomel Airport, was a military engagement which occurred at the Antonov Airport in Hostomel, Kyiv Oblast, during the Kyiv offensive of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
"On 24 February 2022, a few hours after President of Russia Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of a "special military operation" in Ukraine, Russian troops of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) made an air assault on Antonov Airport with the objective of capturing it. The airport held strategic value as it was located less than 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) outside of the capital Kyiv, which would allow Russian troops to airlift more troops and heavier equipment to directly threaten the city.[6] However, the Ukrainian military responded with a counter-attack which encircled the unsupported Russian forces and repelled the initial attack.[14] The attack resumed on the next day with another air assault by the VDV combined with a ground assault by armored reinforcements coming from the Belarusian border, breaking through the Ukrainian defenses. The airport was then captured by the Russian forces.[14] Despite this, the unexpected Ukrainian resistance foiled the plans of a quick capitulation of Kyiv,[7] and the airport was too damaged to be used as a functional airstrip.[15]
"The Antonov An-225 Mriya, the world's largest airplane, was destroyed in its hangar during the battle.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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The figure of "14,000 Ukrainian deaths" attributed to Ukraine, by those for whom it serves their purposes, include all deaths of both Ukrainian and Russian military personnel and the civilians who have died as a result of the conflict caused by the invasion of Russia into Ukraine in 2014. This was followed by the subsequent "annexation" of Crimea and the military activity since 2014 by separatists who have been supported and urged on by Russian regular military personnel. This culminated in Russia's full and outright attacks in February 2022. Ostensibly a "limited military operation"
The attribution of the 14,000 to Ukraine is, itself, a lie, that certain people are using to support their own ignominious position. People offering such statistics, do so in order to create uncertainty and instability of purpose and resolve. That is part of the topic covered in this analysis by Jake Broe. Also because they believe many may accept such declarations as being true, without them checking references that would confirm or deny such declarations as true or false. {all of the military activity, on whatever pretext the Russians may wish to use, - all totally without credibility, in view of their actions, size and dimension of their military activity}. Indeed, by the same logic, it would be reasonable to attribute all of those deaths to Russia, since it was by their invasion that those deaths occurred.
The costs, in lives, survivors with wounds, devastation and destruction of residential, commercial and industrial property and infrastructure, to both Ukraine and Russia alone, as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, makes farcical any of the so-called reasons that Russia may proffer, "in order to protect the Russian speaking citizens of Ukraine", being one of them. The farce is, in particular, because it is many of those same Russian speaking citizens who have been killed and the survivors made homeless as a result of the almost "blanket bombing" of extensive residential areas by the Russian airforce, navy and military by bombing and artillery bombardment. It is for these reasons that the "West" has provided and continues to provide so much aid to Ukraine for the defence of their country.
Entering any of the following titles into your web browser search bar will provide informed evidenciary reports and statistics, including "on the ground" experiences of observers as recorded by those observers of the OSCE {Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe} Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine. The information can be accessed directly via the links below: "OSCE report on Donbas"
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=OSCE+report+on+Donbas
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OSCE_Special_Monitoring_Mission_to_Ukraine
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=OSCE+Special+Monitoring+Mission+to+Ukraine
https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine
https://neweuropeans.net/article/3638/fake-ukrainophobic-publications-osce-and-russian-propaganda
The following video gives information that probably shows the real reason that Russia is in military conflict with Ukraine and its real objectives:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eo6w5R6Uo8Y
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Don't we often witness exactly that same dynamic in our everyday experiences. The evil gangs take advantage of all the positive aspects of the relatively "GOOD" people and they do so quickly. There is no reason for them to be cautious. They count on speed and surprise. Among people motivated in these ways, there is the mentality of "take the lot, or lose the game" - "quick in and quick out".
The people operating from a "GOOD" perspective are often cautious, in case their actions may hurt another person or people. They often take time to weigh up alternatives, in terms of their legitimate benefit or merit for themselves and others.
Woops, the game is over, the evil doers have already been and gone.
I do not mean this statement to be either cynical or sarcastic. Rather that People operating with GOOD intentions need to have thought out the plan and process, and prepared the implementation of the plan right up front and have contingency plans ready in case another person or group plans to short circuit and or "take the money and run".
This present situation, where Russia claims that it is not waging WAR against Ukraine, but against member countries of the NATO Defensive Alliance, is a prime example. It was Russia that did the planning and lulled the Free World, West aligned countries into a false sense of security. The Free World, for 30+ years were gradually being groomed by Russia. Classic FSB / KGB style of operating. Then Russia sprung the trap. It is Russia that are fighting against the West, the Free World, because that is what they had intended all along.
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I believe that Chancelor Scholz and the German government may have come under possibly unfair but resonable attack given what has appeared to have been the circumstances regarding German military support for Ukraine.
Although there has been a great deal of criticism projected toward Germany, there may have been good reason for their delays in providing weapons and other support for Ukraine untill support had been prepared by other countries, so that the support was provided at a particular time and in an integrated, uniform and timely manner. The delays in provision of weapons by Germany and some others may have been conceived in order to sow reasonable doubt in the minds of the Russians about the uniformity and concensus among the countries offering assistance and support to Ukraine. These have been my thoughts since late last year (2022).
Whatever the reasons may be, Germany certainly seems to have recently contributed, quantity and quality, in line with resources provided by other countries.
Reasons for "Considered, Measured and Proportional Response."
There is, effectively, a conference of countries of which the UK, the US; in accordance with their commitments made under the provisions of the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine of course, Poland, Germany, and approximately 50 other countries, are members. The decisions made are arrived at by consensus among the participating countries, with Ukraine having the deciding voice. One of the issues that appears to have been clear is the concept of "Measured and Proportional Response".
Issues to be considered in the provision of hardware and resources are logistics, supply lines, facilities for repair - {Repairing tanks is not like taking the SUV to the local repairer for brake disc and pad replacement}, combinations of other support vehicles and even aircraft; consideration of how the hardware is to be used and, probably most important of all, adequate training and experience for the personnel who will be operating the hardware and equipment.
While I acknowledge and understand the frustration that millions of people are experiencing, the consequences of escalating beyond what is referred to as a "proportional response", may be even greater devastation and hardship for Ukrainians than they are already experiencing.
Such a possibility may be difficult to conceive, but Ukraine would be the first likely target if the RuZZians decided to really test the resolve of the "west" or "free world". And if the RuZZians were to fire a small number of tactical nuclear weapons against the major eastern cities of Ukraine, I leave it to you to web-search information about the possible consequences.
The article, in the website below, provides some details on what the response, by western nations, but specifically by the US, to the firing of a nuclear weapon by RuZZia would be. You may wish to read and consider the details, as the possibilities concern us all.
What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?
A look at the grim scenarios—and the U.S. playbook for each
By Eric Schlosser June 20, 2022 https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/
{RuZZia refers to the RuZZian Nazi-Fascist style regime that appears to be acting against the interests of their own population and those of other countries, particularly Ukraine at the present time.}
====== Russian Nuclear Weapons Targets.======
Russia, through Putin and others, claims that it has numerous city targets around the world that it can attack with nuclear weapons.
However, the "Achilles' heel" for Russia, particularly because of the immense size of the country, is that there are only two cities to target, Moscow and St. Petersburg. If both of those cities were to be annihilated, it would decimate the Russian Federation.
The country currently identified as the Russian Federation would simply revert to being controlled by the ethnic and national identities and groups, of which the current federation is comprised.
Then Putin, if he survived and could find a horse, would need it to help him hunt for food. His capacity to exercise power would no longer exist, except in a very limited region, and he would be the focus of recrimination and responsibility for the devastation that would have been exacted on Russia with western conventional weapons because of the Russian pre-emptive strike. The "west" are most UN-likely to respond with nuclear weapons, but neither would they need to.
Putin would have to be aware of the high probability of this outcome, which would very likely be the only reason that would matter to him.
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Likewise, however I don't think that the reference was directed toward individuals but rather at certain vested interest groups touting a certain refrain.
In fact there was NO fun made of non-native speakers of English. Jake Broe actually stated that he was not doing so and reflected on his own difference in word usage and pronunciation.
While I might also have said that his pronunciation of the name Vasyukevich was somewhat askew, I live in another part of the world where pronunciation of a lot of words differ from the way an American, Brit or, more particularly, Russian person would say them.
However, it was certainly fun being made of either people or machines, in the troll 'factories' referred to by Garry Bower, in the comment below, that so consistently and repeatedly miss-spelled words as to make themselves and their intentions, or at least those of the 'driver', so conspicuous.
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It is also said that battles are not won by killing the enemy, but by in-capacitating as many as possible, in order to tie up resources used to recover and care for those wounded and dying. Unfortunately, from various reports, Putin appears to be using civilians, as wounded to be cared for, to fill this role of the wounded by Ukrainians.
It appears that Belarus has served as a staging post for Russian troops, missiles and aircraft, both before and after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, but Belarus has not deployed its own forces in active battle. {as at 20 Mar 22} If Russia were to gain access to Lithuania, Latvia and, or Estonia, it would have access to port facilities on the Baltic Sea
If Putin does not wish to have another NATO member country on Russia's border, what will Ukraine end up being - Just a buffer state in which Putin's only interest will be resources and the slave population, and Ukraine simply acting as a buffer zone.
At the present time there are 4 countries having a border with Russia, being Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. Poland has a border through the enclave of Kaliningrad, that isn't connected to the rest of Russia. Turkey, a NATO member country, is also only separated from Russia by the tiny country of Georgia. Turkey also has effective control of the entrance to the black sea, which, I understand is Russia's only winter port.
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Russia is highly unlikely to display maps of its future plans to invade any country in advance. With regard to Russia's invasion and WAR waged against Ukraine, Russia even stated, right up to the day, that there was no reason to invade Ukraine and that Russia would not do so. Yet that is exactly what they did.
The countries to the East of Russia are not the only ones at imminent risk, but also the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, as well as Poland, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. Given the current political situation in those countries, Hungary and Slovakia could possibly capitulate following an attack by the Russians on Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria.
It is not a matter of what Russia is ABLE to do. It is really a question as to whether Russia, delusionally {in the strict sense of the word, to my way of thinking}, or in spite of Russia's apparent ignorance of their real and inadequate military capacity against that of the NATO Defensive Alliance and other supporting countries {about 30 at present}, believe that they can achieve their stated goals and objectives of re-instituting the former USSR, by that, or any other name. And we know that the intended "revanchism" has been stated by Putin and others, directly and implicitly.
To accomplish that goal, Russia would have to attack other NATO Defensive Alliance member countries. First, Moldova, {not an Alliance member country}, then connecting with Transnistria (1), on the long {aprox 200 km} North-Eastern border between Ukraine and Moldova, where ~500 {OGRF} Russian military personnel (2) are said to be stationed. Then Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO Alliance member countries, but difficult to support from the West because of the Carpathian Mountains and, if they chose to support Russia, Hungary and Slovakia to the North-West.
{"Russia deploys large landing ship to occupied Sevastopol, Atesh resistance movement reports The New Voice of Ukraine Wed, January 24, 2024"}
This portion of the {possible} Russian plan would have to be completed by surprise and with guile, subterfuge and speed, which we know to be trade-marks of the Russian style. At this stage, with the Eastern portions of Ukraine illegally occupied and controlled by the Russians, Georgia effectively hobbled, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria secured, the only other country with a Black Sea coastline is Turkey. The question would then arise as to how much pressure Russia would have to impose to make Turkey compliant to Russia's wishes and intentions. At which time, the Azov and Black Seas become, effectively, a Russian Azov/Black Sea lake.
Having accomplished control of the Black Sea, Russia will have effectively covered the Southern flank of any possible attack against them as they proceed East via the Suwalki Gap, through Belarus. Though, by this time, the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries will have been fully mobilised as a result of attacks on Romania and Bulgaria, under NATO article 5. Troops from NATO member countries would then be free to cross Polish and Ukrainian borders {with the permission and approval of each country} against the Russians. No wonder Poland has strengthened their Northern and Eastern borders. The Suwalki Gap traverses the Polish border, which is also adjacent to the Lithuanian border.
{Article 5. The key section of the {NATO Defensive Alliance} treaty is Article 5. Its commitment clause defines the "casus foederis". It commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state, in the areas defined by Article 6, to be an armed attack against them all.}
Next would likely be an assault on the 100 km {~60 mile} Suwalki Gap, between Belarus and Kaliningrad. The Russians have conventional and, it is generally believed, nuclear weapons in the Kaliningrad exclave. Russia is also understood to have moved nuclear weapons into Belarus. With the Suwalki Gap secured, Russia will have successfully divided the Southern European countries from the Northern Baltic and Scandinavian countries, and have carved a direct route from Russia to the Baltic Sea.
Then the very small countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. In Russia's attempts to accomplish these goals and objectives, and irrespective of their success or failure, Russia can be the cause of hundreds of thousands {possibly millions} of deaths of civilians and military personnel and massive levels of destruction. All of which we have seen as a result of the military actions of Russia in Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and other countries. However, these outcomes could be on a very much larger scale, without any compunction or moral scruple of any sort on Russia's part. Russia's claim is, "The only rule of WAR is the outcome", which is a direct counter to, and repudiation of all the international agreements to which Russia is signatory.
The issue is not whether Russia can subjugate, subordinate and dominate other countries, but instead, the death and destruction that Russia will cause in attempting to achieve those goals and objectives. And all that death and destruction in Ukraine is intended to intimidate, not only Ukrainians, but also the populations in Western Europe, presumably, in an effort to "encourage" or "persuade" Europeans to sacrifice Ukraine {and possibly other countries} to save themselves from a similar fate. However, such a sacrifice will not save Western Europeans, but rather, will just postpone the inevitable future attacks by Russia.
We have also seen that Russia seems oblivious to the difference between the combined resources of the NATO Defensive Alliance and the 30 additional countries assisting and supporting Ukraine, with respect to Russia's own resources as well as any other resources available to Russia from Iran, North Korea, possibly China and any others.
==================================
If you are not already familiar with the videos on Julia Davis' "Russian Media Monitor" YouTube website, of which the video clip of the Russian media entity, Mardan, in this video is one example. I recommend web-searching and viewing them. They are extracts from material presented to the Russian population through Russian TV broadcasts, with very clear English language subtitles. Some of the material could variously be described as horrifying, unbelievable, comical in its absurdity, confronting and numerous other descriptive words. Please do check them out.
Another website, that may be of interest, consists of interviews with 'ordinary' Russians in the street about their views on a wide range of topics. Those videos can be seen on Daniil Orain's YouTube website, "1420".
With Best Wishes, PNH
References from Wikipedia:
1) "Lying between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, Transnistria is 200 kilometres in length, and in some places only two kilometres wide. This strip of land is officially called the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), and has a population of around 500,000."
2) "The Operational Group of Russian Forces {OGRF} in Transnistria is a sizable overseas military task force of the Russian Armed Forces."
"The OGRF ostensibly remains in Transnistria to guard the ammunition depot at Cobasna. It also provides additional support to the Armed Forces of Transnistria. Today, around 350–400 troops with the operational force report directly to the JCC and can be assigned to it at any given time."
3) The JCC. "Following the Transnistria War, the Joint Control Commission {JCC} was established on the initiative of Moldovan and Russian presidents Mircea Snegur and Boris Yeltsin by the signing of a cease-fire agreement on July 21, 1992. It consists of soldiers and officers from Moldovan, Transnistian and Russian military."
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@runem5429 I agree with most of what you have written with regard to the Russians and their "Russia, it's simply violence out of uncontrolled rage" or simply total disregard for anything that they believe that they want but have, in some way, been denied.
Your opening "Am I the only one seeing a shift .... " implies that you think that you may be, which actually seems ludicrous given the context. There seems to be no way in which anyone can logically answer your opening and closing {"Am I wrong?"} questions. To me, they appear redundant, and serve no purpose.
If I were trying to establish a difference between the way the Russians have previously fought and any recent changes, I may write the comment as follows:
"There appears to me to be 'a shift in Russian retaliation that looks like they're no longer just cynically responding, brutal and indifferent.
However, now, that gratuitous violence seems to 'no longer serve any real purpose that could even concievably benefit Russia, it seems to be violence out of uncontrolled rage' "
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The following statistics have been extracted from the ORYX website by web-search: "oryx, hardware losses in Ukraine". Only some of the category headings are shown in this comment.
This list only includes, verified and confirmed, destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here.
🇷🇺Russian & 🇺🇦Ukrainian Hardware Losses 24 February 2022 to 15 September 2023
🇷🇺Total - 12147, of which: destroyed: 8327, damaged: 488, abandoned: 454, captured: 2878 {captured by Ukrainians}
🇺🇦Total - 4436, of which: destroyed: 2990, damaged: 342, abandoned: 152, captured: 952 {captured by Russians}
🇷🇺Tanks - 2315, of which destroyed: 1502, damaged: 130, abandoned: 135, captured: 550 {by Ukrainians}
🇺🇦Tanks - 648, of which destroyed: 421, damaged: 53, abandoned: 31, captured: 143 {by Russians}
🇷🇺Command Posts And Communications Stations 🇷🇺 251, of which destroyed: 164, damaged: 2, abandoned: 2, captured: 83
🇺🇦Command Posts And Communications Stations 🇺🇦(17, of which destroyed: 13, captured: 4)
🇷🇺Radars 🇷🇺(45, of which destroyed: 29, damaged: 4, captured: 9)
🇺🇦Radars And Communications Equipment 🇺🇦(77, of which destroyed: 59, damaged: 7, abandoned: 1 captured: 11)
🇷🇺Engineering Vehicles And Equipment 🇷🇺(341, of which destroyed: 168, damaged: 9, abandoned: 39, captured: 125)
🇺🇦Engineering Vehicles And Equipment 🇺🇦(81, of which destroyed: 42, damaged: 9, abandoned: 5, captured: 25)
🇷🇺 Aircraft (89, of which destroyed: 81, damaged: 8)
5 Il-76 transport aircraft: (1 and 2, destroyed on the ground) (3 and 4, damaged beyond economical repair on the ground) (5, damaged on the ground)
🇷🇺 Helicopters (105, of which destroyed: 91, damaged: 12, captured: 2)
🇷🇺 Trucks, Vehicles, and Jeeps (2834, of which destroyed: 2157, damaged: 52, abandoned: 51, captured: 569)
🇷🇺 Naval Ships and Submarines (16, of which destroyed: 9, damaged: 7)
Naval Ships and Submarines (16, of which destroyed: 11, damaged: 5)
1 Project 1164 Slava-class guided missile cruiser: (1, Moskva, sunk)
1 Project 636.3 Improved Kilo-class submarine: (1, B-237 'Rostov-na-Donu', damaged beyond economical repair)
The sub was less than 10yrs old, in dry-dock for routine maintenance.
5 Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged)
1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 640 small patrol boat: (1)
1 Project 1171 Tapir-class landing ship: (1, BDK-65 'Saratov', destroyed)
3 Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship: (1, 'Minsk', damaged beyond economical repair) (1, damaged) (2, 'Olenegorsky Gornyak', damaged)
1 Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 22870 rescue tug: (1, SB-739 V'asily Bekh', destroyed)
1 Project 266M Natya-class minesweeper: (1, damaged)
🇺🇦 Aircraft (71, of which destroyed: 70, captured: 1)
🇺🇦 Helicopters (35, of which destroyed: 30, damaged: 2, captured: 3)
🇺🇦 Trucks, Vehicles, and Jeeps (746, of which destroyed: 533, damaged: 18, abandoned: 12, captured: 181)
🇺🇦 Naval Ships (27, of which destroyed: 9, damaged: 1, captured: 17)
1 Krivak III-class frigate: (1, 'Hetman Sahaydachniy', scuttled)
5 Gyurza-M-class gunboat: (1, damaged) (1, Lubny 'P178', sunk but later raised by Russia) (2, Akkerman 'P174', captured) (3, Vyshhorod 'P179', captured) (4, Kremenchuk 'P177', captured)
1 Island-class patrol boat: (1, P190 'Slovyansk', sunk)
1 Stenka-class patrol boat (Operated by the Sea Guard): (1, BG-32 'Donbass' sunk)
3 Zhuk-class patrol boat (Sea Guard): (1, 'BG 108', destroyed) (1, 'BG 118', captured) (2, unknown ID, captured)
1 Sorum-class seagoing tugboat: (1, A830 or P186 'Korets', captured)
1 Project 376 Yaroslavets-class general purpose tugboat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 1258 Yevgenya-class minesweeper: (1, 'Henichesk', sunk)
1 Pr.304 Amur-class command ship: (1, U-500 'Donbas', destroyed)
1 Project 58181 Centaur-class fast assault boat: (1, 'DSHK-1 Stanislav', sunk)
1 UMS-600 patrol boat (Sea Guard): (1, 'BG 721', captured)
5 UMS-1000 patrol boat (Sea Guard): (1, 'BG 22', damaged and captured) (2, 'BG 14', captured) (3, 'BG 24', captured) (4, 'BG 23', captured) (5, 'BG 25', captured)
4 Project 50030 Kalkan-class patrol boat (Sea Guard): (1, 'BG 308', captured) (2, 'BG 311', captured) (3, 'BG 310', captured) (4, 'BG 309', captured)
1 Unknown patrol boat (Sea Guard): (1, unknown ID, captured)
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Yes really!!! The US is, by their own speech and actions, the enemy of Ukraine. And, by extension, the enemy of Europe and the rest of the Free World. It is not Ukraine, Europe or the other countries of the Free World that have made the US an enemy. It is the US themselves. And, particularly against their former friends, allies and economic associates, Canada and Mexico.
If the United States of America wish to change this situation, the US needs to deal with the absolute menace, Donald J. Trump. It is up to the people of America. No threats, just reality.
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I do not think that your concerns are warranted. Russia is making certain that popular support in the West, if not increasing at the rate that it has been, is certainly not diminishing. A stray drone, landing in the wrong place {or was it deliberate ?} is not going to alter perceptions in the Free World by any significant degree.
However, acknowledging a misplaced drone that has not caused casualties or any material damage, may cause significant harm and an expectation that Article 5 should be invoked. It is unlikely that acknowledgement of the location of the misplaced drone could be separated from the invocation of Article 5. It may just be, that doing so would possibly be what Russia may want. They could then claim that counties of the NATO Defensive Alliance were attacking them with "infounded provocation, over an 'accidental' stray drone".
Neither do I believe that there is a significant danger of political change in the Free World that will lead to diminished support for Ukraine. If anything, the opposite affect may occur; that the WAR, waged by Russia against Ukraine, while not determining the outcome of any election, may be an influencing factor in the outcome of any elections. When it is all said and done, it is the "peoples' choice" in the Free World and we need to take that into account also.
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine 🇺🇦
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#watchthe1369 I do not believe that Jake is giving Putin any ideas that Putin does not already have, since it is a film clip of Russians saying these things. I believe that it is important for the people of the US to know what brainless propaganda is being disseminated throughout Russia, particularly when it is aimed at the citizens of the US, and Alaska in particular.
Nothing to do with doing or saying anything "for the sake of clicks." or giving Putin ideas. It is obvious that these
"Ordinary Russians calling themselves "Putin's Squad" {or elsewhere as "Russian Battle Babushkas"} are giving their list of demands",
presumably for the local {national} Russian audience, but directed at the US. All of that is being directed in Russia by the Kremlin, the FSB or any of the other controlling fre*ks in that country.
When you say "I wish you wouldn't give Putin any ideas if you are talking wild and crazy for the sake of clicks.", these are not Jake's words and your complaints sound more like you are supporting the Russians.
I hope that you watch Jake's video again. Needless to say, you are welcome to let me know if you believe I am mistaken, but I hope that you will also let us know if you find that you were mistaken. Cheers, PNH
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Reasons for "Measured and Proportional Response."
* I believe that Olaf Scholz, and the German government, may be the subject of unfair criticism. There is, effectively, a conference of countries of which the UK, the US, Ukraine of course, and Germany, among approximately 50 other countries, are members. The decisions made are arrived at by concensus among the participating countries. One of the issues that appears to have been clear is the concept of "Measured and Proportional Response".
* Issues to be considered in the provision of hardware and resources are logistics, supply lines, facilities for repair - {Reparing tanks is not like taking your SUV to the local repairer for brake disc and pad replacement}, combinations of other support vehicles and even aircraft; consideration of how the hardware is to be used and, probably most important of all, adequate training and experience for the personnel who will be operating the hardware and equipment.
* While I acknowledge and understand the frustration that you and millions of others are experiencing, the consequences of escalating beyond what is referred to as a "proportional response", may be even greater devastation and hardship for Ukrainians than they are already experiencing.
* Such a possibility may be difficult to conceive, but Ukraine would be the first likely target if the RuZZians decided to really test the resolve of the "west" or "free world". And if the RuZZians were to fire a small number of tactical nuclear weapons against the major cities of Ukraine, I leave it to you to web-search information about the possible consequences.
* The article, in the website below, provides some details on what the response, by western nations, but specifically by the US, to the firing of a nuclear weapon by RuZZia would be. Please read and consider the details carefully, as the possibilities concern us all.
* What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine? A look at the grim scenarios—and the U.S. playbook for each
By Eric Schlosser June 20, 2022
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/06/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapon-us-response/661315/
* {RuZZia refers to the RuZZian Nazi-Fascist style regime that appears to be acting against the interests of their own population and those of other countries, particularly Ukraine at the present time.}
====== Russian Nuclear Weapons Targets.======
* Russia, through Putin and others, claims that it has numerous city targets around the world that it can attack with nuclear weapons.
* However, the "Achilles' heel" for Russia, particularly because of the immense size of the country, is that there are only two cities to target, Moscow and St. Petersburg. If both of those cities were to be decimated, it would annihilate the Russian Federation.
* The country currently identified as the Russian Federation would simply revert to being controlled by the ethnic and national identities and groups, of which the current federation is comprised.
* Then Putin, if he survived and could find a horse, would need it to help him hunt for food. His capacity to exercise power would no longer exist, except in a very limited region, and he would be the focus of recrimination and responsibility for the devastation that would have been exacted on Russia, with wesstern conventional weapons, for their pre-emptive strike. The "west" are most unlikely to respond with nuclear weapons, but neither would they need to.
* Putin would have to be aware of the high probability of this outcome, which would probably be the only reason that would matter to him.
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@DanielDEROCKER Thank you for your response, Daniel.
Two very significant changes that I have noticed over the past twelve to eighteen months are:
1) The ever increasing proportion of people, in the comments threads, who have stated their support for Ukraine in defending themselves, their families, communities, cities and country against Russia's aggression and WAR waged against Ukraine.
2) The apparent awareness of people, particularly those discussing the WAR in Ukraine, that there are far wider issues at stake. Our futures, those of our children and those following are likely to be masssively impacted by the decisions that we make with regard to dictatorships and totalitarian states at this time. That includes facing the threat of nuclear weapons used by Russia and, or other countries. Slavery is a sound way to describe the alternative, if we were to concede and capitulate.
Twelve months ago, people were more likely to express fear of the possibility of such a war with the use of nuclear weapons taking place. More recently there seem to have been comments such as: "If it is going to happen, lets get it over with." This response is, I believe, productive because it shows countries such as Russia that people in the Free World are not going to buckle and submit under such threats.
Another positive appears to be the relatively rapid development of unity, purpose, planning and implementation, by more than 60 countries, for Ukraine to have the weapons needed for defense of their country and, by extension, many others also.
As you have said, "Whatever happens, let's stay united and defend our democracies and freedoms."
An article that I found interesting was written for the Atlantic web-periodical entitled:
"What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine? A look at the grim scenarios—and the U.S. playbook for each" By Eric Schlosser June 20, 2022
Best Wishes to You and Support for Ukraine, PNH
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Similar situation on YouTube. I believe that there are people, in the "opposition" who know their way around these sites so well that they use their knowledge to attack, suspend and and have deleted, the comments by genuine channel members and commenters.
It can be exceptionally frustrating, after having put in a good deal of work, research and thought into a post, to have it summarily deleted, with no way of knowing why that has occurred. I have made a practice of keeping a copy of most of what I post, comment on and respond to, in my word processor. In this way, I can either resubmit or alter the content and then repost. Sometimes, I have been able to identify the reason for deletion by "trial and error"
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From this WAR waged by Russia against Ukraine, it appears that there is nothing ".... more treacherous than a Russian." There have been examples, in the not so distant past, of such individual and national treachery, but Russia, at the present time appears to be at the forefront of that list in today's world. No doubt there are other less obvious examples arond the world now.
The very existence of such treachery, recognised now, in a nation thought to have been relatively friendly up until 2014, should make us more alert to its existence in other places throughout the world. Through the more recent events, maybe we can be more alert and aware of what to look for and how to deal with that treachery, in the earliest possible stages, when identified.
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From 1991, until the Revolution of Dignity in 2013, it appeared that Ukraine was just another controlled puppet-of-Russia as we now see Belarus. Yanukovych was in much the same position as Lukaschenko is now.
Yanokovych refused to sign the free trade agreement that had been arranged and approved by the the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) the previous year (2012). Russia had put pressure on Yanukovych not to sign the agreement, but instead to lean toward Russia. That was in part the precipitating reason for the "Revolution of Dignity" though there were certainly other important reasons.
The pro-Russian and pro-Putin shills, trolls, sympathisers and supporters conveniently overlook these details and try to ram the “Victoria Nuland” , “the big bad USA” and “NATO” conspiracy theories into our ears and eyes.
Other reasons for the "Revolution of Dignity" were that protesters opposed what they saw as:
a) widespread government corruption and
b) abuse of power,
c) The influence of oligarchs,
d) police brutality, and
d) human rights violations.
Repressive anti-protest laws fuelled further anger. A large, barricaded protest camp occupied Independence Square in central Kyiv throughout the 'Maidan Uprising'.
Now many of us are saying that Russians should be coming out in protest against the WAR, mobilisation, Putin and all the rest ...... Well the Ukrainians did just that, and the current WAR, waged by Russia against Ukraine, is the product of that action.
Not Russian speakers, NATO, de-militarisation, de-Natzification, or de-Satan-ization. It was simply that Ukraine was moving politically and economically away from Russia. And Putin and the Russian political and military establishment were having none of that insubordination against their wishes. Presumably Putin had thought that he had a live bird in the cage with Yanukovych - just like Lukaschenko. Hence the reason for the rapid departure of Yanukovych following the successful Maidan Revolution.
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Had the nuclear weapons remained on Ukrainian territory, the imperative for Russia to have assumed control of Ukraine sooner would have been even greater. In that circumstance, the Russians would have retained control of the nuclear weapons anyway and they may not have been de-commisioned. Consequently, when some people are saying that Ukraine should have retained the nuclear weapons, I would suggest that the outcome may have been of even greater concern, for Ukraine and the "free world". If Ukraine had retained the Nuclear weapons, it may also have been likely that Belarus and even Kazakhstan may have retained their nuclear arsenals. And possibly still under the control of the Russians.
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It might also be noted that Russia is increasing its control over Belarus at the present time.
https://tass.com/politics/1582461
"MOSCOW, February 28. /TASS/. The Union State of Russia and Belarus is a modern form of integration and 'not' an attempt to revive the Soviet Union, Kremlin Spokesman, Dmitry Peskov told Izvestia."
A rose by any other name is still a rose. It seems that the new words for the USSR are to be referred to by the new modern form that may be called, "Integrated States of Socialist Russia.".{or something similar} And Belarus is intended to be the first of those states that are "integrated" into the Russian "sphere of influence."
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Also to be considered, is Putin's stance and, presumably, that of the Russian political and military establishment, toward the third country to which the Budapest Memorandum referred, that being Kazakhstan {Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan} where statements refuting the statehood of Kazakhstan have been made that are very similar to those refuting the statehood and existence of Ukraine {and very likely Belarus, though I believe that Lukaschenko is probably tamed for Russia}:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakhstan%E2%80%93Russia_relations Putin's 2013 comments on Kazakh statehood
"In 2013, President Vladimir Putin raised controversy when he claimed that “Kazakhs had never had statehood”, in what seemed to be an apparent response to growing nationalism among Kazakhstanis. Putin's remarks on the matter led to a severe response from President Nazarbayev, who announced that the country would celebrate the 550th anniversary of the Kazakh Khanate, which effectively refutes Putin's claim that a Kazakh nation has never existed. He also threatened to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union, saying that the independence of the country is his "most precious treasure" and that Kazakhs "will never surrender" their independence.
"In December 2020, Putin's derogatory comments were repeated by at least two Russian lawmakers.
"Kazakhstan–Russia relations deteriorated greatly upon the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Kazakh leadership including Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tleuberdi condemned the invasion and refused to recognize the Russian states of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic.
"In addition to sending aid to Ukraine, the Kazakh military increased spending and training, in anticipation of possible Russian aggressive invasions."
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Russia's revanchist ideas about re-establishing the USSR, or the same by any other name, clearly indicate that Putin and the Russian political, military and media establishment would attack NATO countries. It would be necessary to do so in order to achieve the stated goals and objectives of Putin and the Russian establishment.
Russia is highly unlikely to display maps of its future plans to invade any country in advance. With regard to Russia's invasion and WAR, waged against Ukraine, Russia even stated, right up to the day, that there was no reason to invade Ukraine {a second time, following the 204 invasion} and that Russia would not do so. Yet that is exactly what Russia did, with less that 24 hours notice.
In the following treatise, I have referred to the Google "Map Of Europe."
The countries to the East of Russia are not the only ones at imminent risk, but also the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, and Poland, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. Given the current political situation in Hungary and Slovakia, either or both of those countries could possibly capitulate following successful attacks, by the Russians, on Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria.
It is not a matter of what Russia is ABLE to do. It is really a question as to whether Russia, delusionally {in the strict sense of the word, to my way of thinking}, or in spite of Russia's apparent ignorance of their real and inadequate military capacity against that of the NATO Defensive Alliance {32 countries} and other supporting countries {about 30 at present}, believe that they can achieve their stated goals and objectives of re-instituting the former USSR, by that or any other name. And we know that the intended "revanchism" has been stated by Putin and others in Russia, directly and implicitly.
To accomplish Russia's goals and objectives, Russia would have to attack NATO Defensive Alliance member countries. First, Moldova, {not an Alliance member country}, then connecting with Transnistria (1), on the long {aprox 200 km} North-Eastern border between Ukraine and Moldova, where ~500 or more {OGRF} (2) Russian military personnel are said to be stationed. Then Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO Alliance member countries, but difficult to support from the West because of the Carpathian Mountains and, if they chose to support Russia, Hungary and Slovakia to the North-West.
This portion of the {possible} Russian plan would have to be completed by surprise and with guile, subterfuge and speed, which we know to be trade-marks of the Russian style. At this stage, with the Eastern portions of Ukraine illegally occupied and controlled by the Russians; Georgia, on the Eastern side of the Black Sea, effectively hobbled; Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria secured; the only other country with a Black Sea coastline is Turkey. The question would then arise as to how much soft economic, or hard military pressure Russia would have to impose to make Turkey compliant to Russia's wishes and intentions. At which time, the Azov and Black Seas become, effectively, a Russian Azov/Black Sea lake.
NATO Defensive Alliance, Article 5.
The key section of the NATO Defensive Alliance treaty is Article 5. Its commitment clause defines the "casus foederis". It commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state, in the areas defined by Article 6, to be an armed attack against them all.
The Russians, having accomplished their goal of control of the Black Sea, will have effectively covered the Southern flank of any possible attack against them as they proceed East via the Suwalki Gap, through Belarus. Though, by this time, the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries will have been fully mobilised, under NATO Article 5, as a result of attacks on Romania and Bulgaria. Troops from NATO member countries would then be free to cross and operate within the Polish and Ukrainian borders {with the permission and approval of each country} against the Russians. It is not surprising that Poland has strengthened their defenses on their Northern and Eastern borders.
The Suwalki Gap traverses the Northern portion of the Polish border, which is also adjacent to the Lithuanian border. It may be considered and has been referred to as the "THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE ON EARTH. In a showdown between Russia and NATO, the 'Suwałki Gap' would likely be the first point of contact. By Matthew Karnitschnig in Druskininkai, Lithuania".
The Russians would then be likely to mount an assault on the 100 km {~60 mile} Suwalki Gap, between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. The Russians have conventional and, it is generally believed, nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad. Russia is also understood to have moved nuclear weapons into Belarus. With the Suwalki Gap secured, Russia will have successfully divided the Southern European countries from the Northern Baltic and Scandinavian countries. Russia will also have carved a direct route from Russia to the Baltic Sea.
Then the very small countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. In Russia's attempts to accomplish these goals and objectives, and irrespective of their success or failure, Russia could be the cause of hundreds of thousands {possibly millions} of deaths of civilians and military personnel and massive levels of destruction. All of which we have already seen, as a result of Russian military actions in Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and other countries. However, future outcomes of Russia's aggression could be on a very much larger scale, without any compunction or moral scruple of any sort on Russia's part.
Russia's claim is, "The only rule of WAR is the outcome", which is a direct counter to, and repudiation of all the international agreements to which Russia is signatory. But, we have already seen, on numerous occasions, that Russia has no regard for Agreements, Memoranda and Treaties when they do no match with Russia's immediate needs or wishes.
The issue is not whether Russia can subjugate, subordinate and dominate other countries, but instead, the death and destruction that Russia will cause in attempting to achieve those goals and objectives. All the death and destruction in Ukraine is intended to intimidate, not only Ukrainians, but also the populations in Western Europe. This is, presumably, in an effort to "encourage" or "persuade" Europeans to sacrifice Ukraine {and possibly other smaller countries} with the intention of saving themselves from a similar fate to that imposed by the Russians on Ukraine. However, such a sacrifice will not save Western Europeans, but rather, will just postpone the inevitable future attacks by Russia. Particularly as Russia gets stronger with each conquest.
We have also seen that Russia seems oblivious to the difference between the combined resources of the NATO Defensive Alliance of 32 countries, and the 30 additional countries assisting and supporting Ukraine, with respect to Russia's own resources as well as other resources available to Russia from Iran, North Korea, possibly China and any other countries that may support Russia.
==================================
Anyone not already familiar with the videos on Julia Davis' "Russian Media Monitor" YouTube website, I recommend web-searching and viewing them. They are extracts from material presented to the Russian population through Russian TV broadcasts, with very clear and, I believe, accurate English language subtitles. Some of the material could variously be described as horrifying, unbelievable, comical in its absurdity, confronting and numerous other descriptive words.
A recent video is entitled: "Vladimir Solovyov wants to nuke Western cities". Duration: 4:24 min.
Please do check them out.
Another website, that may be of interest, consists of interviews with 'ordinary' Russians in the street about their views on a wide range of topics. Those videos can be seen on Daniil Orain's YouTube website, "1420".
References from Wikipedia:
1) "Lying between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, Transnistria is 200 kilometres in length, and in some places only two kilometres wide. This strip of land is officially called the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), and has a population of around 500,000."
2) "The Operational Group of Russian Forces {OGRF} in Transnistria is a sizable overseas military task force of the Russian Armed Forces." The OGRF ostensibly remains in Transnistria to guard the ammunition depot at Cobasna. It also provides additional support to the Armed Forces of Transnistria. Today, around 350–400 troops with the operational force report directly to the JCC and can be assigned to it at any given time."
3) The JCC. "Following the Transnistria War, the Joint Control Commission {JCC} was established on the initiative of Moldovan and Russian presidents Mircea Snegur and Boris Yeltsin by the signing of a cease-fire agreement on July 21, 1992. It consists of soldiers and officers from Moldovan, Transnistian and Russian military."
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Yes, it seems so blantantly obvious that the RuZZians, as distinct from Russians appear quite happy and determined to work in such ways and then lie and obfuscate and point out what they percieve that the "free world" is doing wrong, while ignoring the fact that it is they who are acting in such heinous, objectionable and terrible ways. Unfortunately, even my description of the behaviour does not adequately describe how I feel about the actions of their political and military establishment and the military forces for which they are responsible.
RuZZia and Facism & Nazism
RuZZia refers to the RuZZian Fascist-Nazi style regime that appears to be acting against the interests of their own population and the populations of other countries, particularly Ukraine at the present time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism
Fascism is a far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement,[1][2][3] characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for the perceived good of the nation and race, and strong regimentation of society and the economy.[2][3]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazism
Nazism is a form of fascism,[2][3][4][5] with disdain for liberal democracy and the parliamentary system. It incorporates fervent antisemitism, anti-communism, scientific racism, and the use of eugenics into its creed. Its extreme nationalism originated in pan-Germanism and the ethno-nationalist neopagan Völkisch movement which had been a prominent aspect of German nationalism since the late 19th century, and it was strongly influenced by the Freikorps paramilitary groups that emerged after Germany's defeat in World War I, from which came the party's underlying "cult of violence".[6]
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Your observation may be valid and appropriate if the intention of the those particular Republicans is, indeed, the so called "security of the Southern border" and not another issue. While I acknowledge that negotiation and compromise is an integral part of the democratic parliamentary system, those same negotiations and compromise can quickly be changed, by people lacking integrity, to straight-up blackmail.
The issue is that Ukraine's problem is not just one of "border security", but of full-scale WAR and consequent threat of loss of territory. The two two issues of "border security" and border porosity" are nowhere near equal in consequence and, I believe, are in no way equivalent.
If Russia considers they need a buffer zone, and Ukraine becomes that zone, then Russia is closer to many other countries. The WAR, waged by russia against Ukraine, is not only seriously and adversely affecting Ukraine, but is, and will also seriously and adversely affect many other countries, and their interests, including those of the US. That is if it was simply the "border security" of another country at stake; but it is not. No other country is challenging the sovereignty and location of the borders of the US.
"Border security and sovereignty" and "border porosity" are two entirely different issues, and are dealt with in different ways. It seems the Republicans, having previously had the political advantage and strength, had the opportunity to address border security porosity, in their own country of the US, at various times during the last forty years, and have failed to do so. That makes their claims of border security porosity of the US tied to the immediate, definite and real issue of BORDER SECURITY and SOVEREIGNTY of Ukraine, spurious and fallacious on the part of the Republicans.
Would the people of the US consider the imminent threat of loss of all, or part of Texas or all, or part of Alaska, as a border "security" issue or a border "porosity" issue. The loss of all, or part of my country is, most definitely, a border securiy issue and an absolute threat to freedom and sovereignty of my country. Such an existential existence of invasion, WAR, as waged by the Russians against Ukraine, definitely does NOT come under the classification of "border porosity".
My perspective is that certain Republicans are changing negotiation and compromise into blackmail on behalf of the Russians.
🇺🇦🇺🇦 With Best wishes to All, PNH 🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Although I am not familiar with American politics, it is easy to see where the white ants {termites} are. Marjorie T****or Greene has to be considered one of them, and representative of many, both literally and figuratively. She cannot even bring herself to offer civil courtesies when they are appropriate.
One of the aspects {I avoid saying "faults" because it does represent freedom} of democracy is that people are free to express themselves in the way that they choose, and to elect those people who best reflect their views. Indeed, the presence of people, in our communities and among our elected representatives, who hold and project ideas different from our own, remind us of the necessity to keep informed and to keep an open mind. The "open mind" allowing us, with blinkers off, to consider a wide range of views and to be discerning about those that we adopt.
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I don't know what anyone else has done, but if the character and actions match the definition, presumably, they are defined by their own character and actions.
RuZZia and Fascist--Nazism
RuZZia refers to the RuZZian Fascist-Nazi style regime that appears to be acting against the interests of their own population of Russia and the populations of other countries, particularly Ukraine at the present time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism
Fascism is a far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement,[1][2][3] characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for the perceived good of the nation and race, and strong regimentation of society and the economy.[2][3]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazism
Nazism is a form of fascism,[2][3][4][5] with disdain for liberal democracy and the parliamentary system. It incorporates fervent antisemitism, anti-communism, scientific racism, and the use of eugenics into its creed. Its extreme nationalism originated in pan-Germanism and the ethno-nationalist neopagan Völkisch movement which had been a prominent aspect of German nationalism since the late 19th century, and it was strongly influenced by the Freikorps paramilitary groups that emerged after Germany's defeat in World War I, from which came the party's underlying "cult of violence".[6]
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In the general sense of Europe funding and paying for their defence, I agree. However, there are two other significant considerations with regard to the US. Those being:
1) the existence of the NATO Defensive Alliance and
2) the assurances given by the US, in conjunction with the UK and Russia, to support Ukraine under the provisions of the Budapest Memorandum.
I believe that the US will come through on those assurances and, at the same time, will maintain their integrity within the NATO Defensive Alliance, of which the US was a founding member.
Yes, the current political impasse, within the government of the US, has meant that European countries have had to reconsider their own independent and collective positions. That is a question and position that European countries may not have had to, or would possibly not have chosen to address, if the US delay in provision of arms had not occurred. A favourable outcome, I believe, from a rather negative US political situation. "It is an ill wind that blows no-body any good". "Out of adversity comes strength".
"Adversity tests our resilience, and with each challenge, we become better equipped to handle future obstacles. By developing resilience, we cultivate a sense of inner strength and confidence that enables us to face adversity with courage and determination. Adversity often acts as a catalyst for personal {and collective} growth. 4 July 2023"
Another aspect is that the current political situation in America has given Russia the opportunity to "show their best cards", since the pressure that US provision of arms, would otherwise have imposed, has been reduced. In this respect, the Russians have not faired well against Ukrainian ingenuity, in conjunction with the continued support provided to Ukraine and received from European and other countries.
Consequently, in a best case scenario for Russia, Russia has still continued to lose significantly higher numbers and quantities of hardware, including tanks, towed and self-propelled artillery, ships and planes, than the Ukrainian losses. In addition to these land-based, sea-borne and aircraft weapons, the Russians are continuing to lose their economic infrastructure in the form of oil refinaries and other military production resources on Russian territory. These Russian losses are being continued by the use of imported and Ukrainian manufactured drones. The Ukrainians have not simply relied on other countries to supply military hardware and equipment, but have established industries for production and, at the same time, skills in the use of innovative means of response to the overt Russian aggression.
These losses, even at a time when the US support is stalled {not stopped}, demonstrates that Russia is far weaker than had previously been supposed. And Russia is becoming weaker by the day, while Ukraine is gaining in strength, in human resources as well as produced military hardware and equipment.
Had the WAR, waged by Russia against Ukraine, been fought more quickly and "hotter", it is my belief that far more Ukrainian lives of civilians and military personnel would have been lost and far greater destruction {though that is difficult to imagine} would have occurred.
References from which I took general information:
-- history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/nato
-- NATO Deterrence and defence
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In principle, David, I agree with you. However, sometimes it may be worth letting the enemy know what they are up against, particularly Russia at the present time. Barring the Russia's possible use of nuclear weapons, which I don't think is likely, it is worth letting them clearly understand what they are up against, especially when it is likely that they already know, through their intelligence sources peppered throught-out the free world, what those resources being delivered to Ukraine are going to be.
The idea is to use those resources, not just as the weapons they are intended to be, but also for the demoralising effect that such knowledge has on the enemy, particularly if they know that their own weaposns are inferior in quality and fire-power, and even if they may be more numerous. We can already see examples of "the enemy running away", possibly because they know what is likely to be behind the vehicle or platform that they can see in their immediate centre of awareness.
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It is amazing that Big, Bad, Bold, Tough Russia and Big, Bad, Bold, Tough Poo-tin and their Moscow menagerie, has to hide behind the petti-coats and hang on to the apron strings of their little sister, Ukraine, for protection as a "buffer zone". How Pathetic.
Despite having a huge land mass and being blessed with great natural resources, Russia, just like the spoilt bratt or the school bully, has to try to take what belongs to someone else. Then when they are found out, they hide behind others and attempt to blame the victim. This is what most of the false information and obfuscation {just learned that word a while ago and it is so apt} that the pro-Poo-tin and pro-Russian trolls are trying to spread on Russia's behalf, against Ukraine.
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Your English is fine { unfortanately English is the only language that I speak, so you are ahead of me } and your message is very much acknowledged, appreciated and valued, from a lot further away, in Australia. I like the sentiments that you have expressed and can feel that your ideas, mine and many others are alike. I find it incredible that there has been such a high level of unanimity developed, among such a wide range of people, in so many countries, as a result of this war. That is a very good outcome of a very bad situation. I think that it has also made me more aware of other people in conflict zones around the world and the need to extend support where we can and where it is apropriate to do so.
We hope that this totally unnecessary, futile and wasteful war, with its heavy cost in lives and resources, will end soon. I believe that we hope that Ukraine is successful in retaining its independance and sovereignty, its identity, dignity and freedom. The courage, tenacity and determination demonstrated by the Ukrainian people are qualities that have been and are inspiring.
I really like the statement that you offered, "So the war didn’t even (just) unite our goverments, the war united the citizens like me und You too. In very much (many) countries are amazing people too, thinking like me, fearing like me, hoping like me. Like the song „We are the world“."
With Best Wishes to you and your family and those for whom you most care, PNH
With respect to your message, we can extend those wishes to the "People for Whom WE most Care around the World."
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
I decided that the computer translation would not carry my message as well as in English, so I hope that my message will be clear and easily understood.
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The Soviet Union and the Russian Federation have recognised Ukraine since long before the transfer of Crimea to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic
On 19 February 1954, the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union issued a decree transferring the Crimean Oblast from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.
>>>> Worth web-searching:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Ukraine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_sovereignty_referendum
17 March 1991
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum
1 December 1991
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_Independence_of_Ukraine
24 August 1991
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum
5 December 1994
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-what-is-the-budapest-memorandum-and-why-has-russias-invasion-torn-it-up-178184
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian%E2%80%93Ukrainian_Friendship_Treaty
May 31, 1997
What was the agreement between NATO and Russia?
On 27 May 1997, at the NATO Summit in Paris, France, NATO and Russia signed the Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security, a road map for would-be NATO-Russia cooperation.
Did Putin want to join NATO?
Vladimir Putin wanted Russia to join Nato but did not want his country to have to go through the usual application process and stand in line “with a lot of countries that don't matter”, according to a former secretary general of the transatlantic alliance. 4 Nov 2021
Why does Putin feel threatened by NATO?
Because the NATO Defensive Alliance was perceived by the Russian political and military establishment as a political threat. When a country gets a U.S. military base on its territory, it will not have a Russian base there. 25 Feb 2022 {Note the perceived threat was political rather than military}
What is wrong with the Minsk Agreements?
“The key political provisions are incompatible, in my opinion, with Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign country,” said Duncan Allan, a fellow at Chatham House who specialises in the Minsk Agreements.
"In his analysis, the Minsk plan for the political reintegration of Donbas was put together hastily and contains contradictory points, which has led to the two sides arguing for interpretations that are advantageous to {each of} them.
"Indeed, other analysts suggest that if Kyiv was pressured into implementing Russia’s version of Minsk, there could be a severe backlash from ordinary Ukrainians that could destabilise the country internally.
🇺🇦🇺🇦 Victory. Progress and Development for Ukraine 🇺🇦🇺🇦
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Born: 28 June 1971 (age 52 years), Pretoria, South Africa
Net worth: 249.8 billion USD (2023) Forbes
It sounds very much like the conditions of the apartheid regime in South Africa, (1948 to 1994) under the influence of which Musk grew up. Selective and preferential treatment.
Musk attended Waterkloof House Preparatory School, Bryanston High School, and Pretoria Boys High School, from where he graduated. Musk was a good but not exceptional student, earning a 61 in Afrikaans and a B on his senior math certification. Musk applied for a Canadian passport through his Canadian-born mother, knowing that it would be easier to immigrate to the United States this way. While waiting for his application to be processed, he attended the University of Pretoria for five months.
The Apartheid (1948 to 1994) in South Africa was the racial segregation under the all-white government of South Africa which dictated that non-white South Africans (a majority of the population) were required to live in separate areas from whites and use separate public facilities, and contact between the two groups would be limited. The different racial groups were physically separated according to their location, public facilities and social life.
🇺🇦 Best Wishes to you, Richard and all the poeple supporting Ukraine. 🇺🇦
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Some people believe that Russia would not attack a NATO Defensive Alliance member country(ies). I think that belief is simply naive.
No !! Unfortunately, I am not joking. Anything but joking.
What difference does it make to Russia whether it is Ukraine or any of the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries? Putin and the Russian political, military and media establishment have clearly stated their intention to re-acquire the countries of and to re-integrate the former USSR in a similar way that Russia and Belarus are now a "Union State".
{The Union State, or Union State of Russia and Belarus, is a supranational union consisting of Belarus and Russia, with the stated aim of deepening the relationship between the two states through integration in economic and defence policy.}
We, in the Free World, may reasonably have faith in the purpose, intentions, integrity and capacity of the NATO Defensive alliance to perform the role for which it was initially established on 4 April 1949. Though we are observing the interference and deliberate confounding in the functions and decisions of the NATO Defensive Alliance, the EU and the UN because of the recalcitrance of some countries.
{The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was created in 1949 by the United States, Canada, and several Western European nations to provide collective security against the Soviet Union. NATO was the first peacetime military alliance the United States entered into outside of the Western Hemisphere.}
However, do we really believe that Russia, by delusion, ignorance or sheer brazenness, is really worried or concerned about the NATO Defensive Alliance? Quite apart from the reality, they may even believe their own propaganda, in which case, the answer would very likely be an emphatic, "NO !!!" No matter what we may believe.
I think the Russians, unless completely defeated in Ukraine, including Crimea and the Donbas, are likely to attempt to attack other countries, NATO Defensive Alliance member countries or otherwise. If Ukraine falls, despite the assistance and support of 60 or more countries, Russia will consider that the present 31 NATO Defensive Alliance member countries will also be as weak in defending other countries within the NATO Defensive Alliance, particularly the smaller ones.
Indeed, I see Ukraine as a test, by Russia, of the resolve of the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries and the rest of the countries of the Free World. As of 2023, NATO consists of 31 member countries spanning across North America and Europe. These nations have forged a collective commitment to mutual defence and security, fostering cooperation in military, political and strategic realms.
Russia would perform their usual actions, in attacks on other countries, of infiltration by unidentified military troops and fomenting of insurrection, as they did in Crimea and their insurgency and fomenting of insurrection in the Donbas region, followed by insertion of regular military units. At present the Russians already illegally occupy Transnistria, between Moldova and Ukraine. We surely cannot believe that Russia will play by the Free World rule book.
Consider the map of Europe.
First Moldova {not yet a NATO Defensive Alliance member}, then Romania and Bulgaria {both NATO Defensive Alliance members.} and control of both would enlarge and enhance Russia's control of the Black Sea.
Part of the reason that Ukraine is important to Russia is that it provides relatively easy access for military formations from the West to reach Russia and for Russia to access Western Europe, either in offensive or defensive actions. Russia uses Ukraine as that "buffer zone" of which the Russians regularly speak, within which they can fight off any "invading" troops from the West, offensive or defensive. For Russia, also, to project themselves, with little fear of attack from the flanks, into Western Europe.
South of that access route between Poland in the West and Russia to the East of Ukraine, the Russians are protected by mountains, the Carpathians and the Pyrenees, that would make it especially difficult for any supporting Western countries to reach Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria, in a timely fashion with sufficient troops, hardware and munitions. Remembering too, that with Ukraine under Russian control, the Russian Black Sea fleet would be able operate virtually unfettered in the Black and Azov Seas to support any Russian attacks on Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria.
The Tatra Mountains (pronouncedⓘ), Tatras, or Tatra, are a series of mountains within the Western Carpathians that form a natural border between Slovakia and Poland. They are the highest mountains in the Carpathians. The Tatras are distinct from the Low Tatras (Slovak: Nízke Tatry), a separate Slovak mountain range further south.
In the northern Balkans are the Carpathian mountains, which reach great heights in Transylvania, the western part of Romania. There are many other smaller ranges of mountains and hills as well.
Then, on the Black Sea, with Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria, Belarus and Ukraine in the West, and Georgia, in the East, controlled by Russia, Russia will have control of the Black Sea, except for the Northern coastline of Turkey.
How much pressure would Russia put on Turkey and which direction do you think Turkey may turn with regard to access for Russia to the Bosphorus Strait, if Russia controls the Azov Sea and the rest of the Black Sea?
Then, with a compliant Ukraine and Belarus, the next target would be the Suwalki Gap, between Belarus and Kaliningrad. The objective would be to physically connect Russia with Kaliningrad via the Suwalki Gap. There are just 65 km {or 40 miles} across the gap between Kaliningrad and Belarus.
Until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Poland's only eastern and northern neighbour was the USSR; thus, as in the interwar period, the region mattered little in military terms. This changed after 1991, when Kaliningrad Oblast became a semi-exclave of Russia, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, both of which are neighbours with Belarus, but neither Poland nor Lithuania has a direct border with the "mainland" part of Russia -
{until Russia establishes control of both Belarus and Ukraine}.
The immediate neighbours of the Kaliningrad Oblast, Poland and Lithuania, both entered the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Defensive Alliance, but at the same time, only 65 km (40 mi) of Polish territory separates two areas of the rival {to NATO} Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Union State of Belarus and Russia. We may also recall that Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine were signatories, with the "protectors", Russia, the UK and the US, to the Budapest Memorandum of 1994.
The former Estonian President, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, claims to have come up with the name "Suwałki Gap" before his meeting with Ursula von der Leyen, then serving as the defence minister of Germany, in April 2015, to highlight the vulnerability of the area for the Baltic states.
The next steps would be North to take Lithuania, Latvia and then Estonia. This would give the Russians significant influence in the Baltic Sea, again.
It would be interesting to know what is stored in the massive concrete bunkers, built by the Nazis in WW2, in what is now Kaliningrad. It is also generally understood that the Russians have some type of nuclear weapons housed at Kaliningrad.
Unfortunately, No, I am not joking.
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine is Victory for Europe and the rest of the Free World 🇺🇦
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I believe that it is because of that perceived fragility, that the US retains its strength.
We can consider trees in the wind. If we stake a tree so tightly that it cannot move its branches, the tree breaks easily when the supporting stake is removed. The tree has not developed in a way to remain sturdy against the wind, but will break in a gentle breeze. It is only when the tree is loosely contained between two or more stakes, that it is allowed to move in the breeze and develop the internal strength of the tree, much like weight training of muscles in humans.
To my way of thinking, politics is similar. the governmental and political structure grows in strength by being tested between the vaarious conditions within which and against which it is pressed. As humans, I doubt that we will ever have a perfect political system. However, we can have strong political systems, tested from inside and from outside.
🇺🇦 Victory for Ukraine, Absolute Victory 🇺🇦
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@aggressivecalm Likewise, I very much appreciate your response and believe that I understand your thoughts. We certainly share the same wishes with regard to the maintenance of sovereignty and identity of Ukraine, and recovery of the territory temporarily occupied by Russia. Today, I have read much of the articles from the following sites: {Sorry to add the "P" word in these references}
Russia under Vladimir Putin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_under_Vladimir_Putin
Paragraph:
---- "Militarism and wars outside Russian territory
Piontkovsky considers that Putin’s strategical purposes are {the} following:
1) the installation of Russian military and political control under post-Soviet area and, perhaps, Central Europe;
2) the discrediting of NATO as unable to protect its members;
3) the entrenching {of} Russia's sphere of interest in Europe through new "Yalta Agreement" with humiliated USA. These goals should be achieved through {the following} 3 elements:
Gerasimov doctrine of hybrid war
Patrushev doctrine of nuclear blackmail
Russian traditional despising an of own citizens lives that provides an advantage over “hedonistic West”
Russo-Ukrainian War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War
I thought that I was fairly familiar with the issues. However, in reading these articles many of the disparate thoughts and items of information seemed to some degree to coalesce into some order that brought the background information together with current events. To some degree, that combination was almost more unnerving than the day to day events. However, with knowledge and understanding, hopefully, the elements outside the "axis of evil" will assist Ukraine {and all other European allied countries} to progress in unity.
Like all 'centres of power', as exist in Moscow, there must be elements of fragility, otherwise they would not need to be so well protected. In this situation we can validly hope that the destruction will occur from within, possibly even within the upper echelons of the Russian political and military establishment.
With Best Wishes, PNH
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 VICTORY for UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
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And we can also laugh with mirth, anger and despair at others like him, such as Skabeyeva, Simonyan, Mardan and others, of whom we may become aware through the efforts of the people at "Russian Media Monitor", where Russian media "presentations" are translated and have English subtitles showing what these characters say. At times, frustrating, challenging, unbelievable {literally}, comical and sometimes humerous, frightening and scary, crazy and likely to induce strong feelings of anger.
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I believe that anyone who thinks or believes that Putin is a religious man is totally misguided and deceived. Putin has no 'religious' faith, but rather, uses the Russian Orthodox Church as an extention of his FSB {formerly KGB} manipulation of the people.
The so-called Patriarch Kiril and his predecessor, Alexei II {now deceased}, were, like Putin, members of the KGB/FSB. Kiril and Putin, presumably, are still members of that organisation and agency. Any outward presentation of adherence to Christian faith, by Putin, is merely an outward show or presentation of faith that camouflages his true position. It is complete deception and guile. It is only by understanding this image that he portrays, that his actions can be understood and contextualised.
Web-search the query "Putin's faith" to gain various insights into "his faith" and how he uses the Russian Orthodox Church for his own nefarious purposes.
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@haruruben
You said:
@PNH 6000 "how will the Russians bring in all these people and resources? The region isn’t in a livable condition, they’d have to truck in a lot of resources and we’ve seen the Russians are bad at a lot of things especially logistics."
Yes.!!! You are quite correct, the Russians have made an absolute mess of their "theatre of war". All this they have conveniently blamed on other people.
I wouldn't underestimate the ability of the Russians to create settlements that would suit their purposes. Plenty of people have been housed in temporary accommodation during war times. The accommodation for such satellite towns can be trucked in and erected in a few weeks. All the Russians need for their purposes is a population majority built on compliance or co-ercion. Even the accommodation and facilities need only be rudimentary.
A Response that I wrote to another comment poster:
@Ed S In response to your comment:
{"I agree totally that a deal made with Russia is probably worthless. But you can't truly win me over until you offer a better solution. Fewer people would die if Ukr gave up right now, and another day of sweet sweet life is so precious, you would beg for it, even if it is "Russia."}
"....... another day of sweet sweet life is so precious, you would beg for it, even if it is "Russia."
I don't believe so. Each person fights with a sense of pride and dignity, for their nation, not for themselves. They contribute in whatever they can in the most approprriate way that they can. That may be fighting on the front line, working an administrative role, working in repair and maintenance and, at the risk of sounding sexist, for the women to take the children to safety so that there remains a nation for which to fight. A nation is its people.
And that is exactly what we have seen. It is a sign of weakness to capitulate, for another miserable day of life under an oppressive and aggressive regime.
Why capitulate to an aggressor that has shown their true colours? Why be dominated by a nation that treats you as a mere chattel?
Something to be used, abused and discarded? This is how the Russians have treated the Ukranians.
The Russians have shown themselves, at their top echelons and at the fighting front, to be liars, cheats, murderers and thieves. Why would any nation of proud and strong people lay down their arms to such vaccuous agents of death and their quizzlings.
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In addition to Scott Ritter, a few more Russian and Western shills and trolls, sympathisers and supporters of Russia are the following characters and sources that are active and prolific distributors of the classic lies and deliberate dis-information that is presented by so many of these shills and trolls, sympathisers and supporters, for the Russian political, military and media establishment. Many present their ideas and disinformation in slickly presented videos and in comments under videos. All this can be referred to as the "Russian fire-hose of falsehood".
People such as Solovyov, Skabeyeva, Mardan, Simonyan, Norkin and other "hosts", "guests" and "panellists", on their Russian TV broadcasts. Among these are the Western pro-Russian entities, who may refer to themselves as independent journalists and "geopolitical analysts". These include the likes of Alex Jones, Richard Medhurst, Max Blumenthal, Garland Nixon, Matt Ehret, Tucker Carlson, Eva Bartlett, Scott Ritter, Patrick Lancaster, Gonzalo Lira, {if he is still around}, Douglas MacGregor, Aaron Mate, Sonja ven den Ende, Alina Lipp, and The Duran with Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris, The New Atlas with Brian Berletic, Redacted with Clayton and Natali Morris. Michael Flynn, Roger Stone, Patrick Bet-David, Jimmy Dore, Tim Pool, Adam Sosnick, Vincent Oshana, Cyrus Janssen, James Galloway, Jackson Hinkle. I also include John Meersheimer and Noam Chomsky,
Westerners who are used in Russia to promote the Kremlin narrative are:
Thomas Röper, the German conspiracy theorist, who is in reality, a professional journalist in Russian propaganda.
Arnaud Develay, the French lawyer defending Putin and his war.
Andre Chanclu, the far right pro-Russia activist.
Vito Grittani, real diplomat in fake countries.
Kris Roman, too far for the far right.
Scott Bennett, fake "officer" of the US military.
Media sources may include TASS, RT {Russia Today}, the Hindustan Times, WION, the Timur Tribun ........ So, there is plenty of scope for finding the type of garbage that these people spew out and spread. Disinformation that will appeal to the pro-Russian scammers in their carefully nurtured little echo chambers.
Thanks all the same, but I am aware of these so-called proponents and sources and I strongly believe that I am in the company of the right group of people. They sure ain't perfect, but neither am I. However, I believe that "we" are a heck of a sight better than the alternative Russian brand.
Good Luck.
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