Comments by "PNH 6000" (@PNH-sf4jz) on "Russia is Not F*u0026%ing Winning This War" video.
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Here is an estimate of numbers of deleted personnel required before one or other "cuts their losses". I am supporting Ukraine as the Victor.
Some figures regarding the relative strengths of Ukraine and Russia.
44 million total population of Ukraine
67% of population are 15-64 years of age = 29.48 million men and women
46.3% M/F 53.7% = 13.65 million men
144 million total population of Russia.
67% of population are 15-64 years of age = 96.48 million men and women
46.5% M/F 53.5% = 44.8 million men
Another way of calculating Ukrainian fighting men available is based on remaining population in Ukraine (the statistics being somewhat variable by virtue of movements to and from regions)
Ukraine population as at 8 Mar 2023 = 36.3 million after subtracting refugees to other countries
67% of population are 15-64 years of age = 24.32 {possibly higher %age}
46.3% M/F 53.7% = 11.19 {will be higher %age}
Adjustment for refugees to men remaining = 13.56 million men {44/36.3}
A reasonable estimate of able bodied Ukrainians to able bodied Russians would be approximately 15 million Ukrainians to 45 million Russians.
While the same figures are not likely to be maintained across all front lines and in all scenarios, the relative losses in the Bakhmut front are reported to be 7 Russian military personnel KIA to each Ukrainian member KIA. There appear to be similar number and ratios occurring in Avdiivka, and again in Vuhledar and even Bakhmut. Even if the ratios balance out between 7:1 and 3:1, the total losses are going to be 45 million Russians to 15 million Ukrainians. Let's hope that the Russians decide that enough is enough, long before those figures are reached. The Ukrainians most certainly will not stop, they have nothing else to lose.
Relative positions as at 8 November 2023.
Russia is advancing backward, by retreats, withdrawals and routs from Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Kherson. And at present, desperately clinging to trench, "dragon's tooth" and mine networks, to which their attachment is getting weaker by the day. Great achievement Ukraine. The Russians have attacked Avdiivka, Vuhledar and Bakhmut (again) and other areas along the front lines, with virtually no success.
From the illegal occupation of 28% of Ukraine's territory by March 2022, after its full-scale invasion, to less than 15% in November 2022. This figure is constantly diminishing as is Russia's hardware, land, sea and air-force assets. Likewise, the senior officers and rank and file personnel of the Russian military.
With no navy, Ukraine has damaged or destroyed the following navy assets {and possibly more}:
Naval Ships and Submarines (16, of which destroyed: 11, damaged: 5)
1 Project 1164 Slava-class guided missile cruiser: (1, Moskva, sunk)
1 Project 636.3 Improved Kilo-class submarine: (1, B-237 'Rostov-na-Donu', damaged beyond economical repair)
5 Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, damaged) (2, damaged)
1 Project 02510 BK-16E high-speed assault boat: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 640 small patrol boat: (1)
1 Project 1171 Tapir-class landing ship: (1, BDK-65 'Saratov', destroyed)
3 Project 775 Ropucha-class landing ship: (1, 'Minsk', damaged beyond economical repair) (1, damaged) (2, 'Olenegorsky Gornyak', damaged)
1 Project 11770 Serna-class landing craft: (1, destroyed)
1 Project 22870 rescue tug: (1, SB-739 V'asily Bekh', destroyed)
1 Project 266M Natya-class minesweeper: (1, damaged)
Russia, with the "2nd strongest military in the world" has made no progress in the last twelve months, despite their meat grinder approach to waging war. The only exception being the Pyrrhic victory of Bakhmut, not taken by the Russian military forces, but by the Wagner PMC.
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of more than 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware. That advantage then, may well have been considerably greater for Russia, because of respective levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms being used, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its land-based hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops {at least half of the much acclaimed VDV} and massive amounts of ammunition, a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads, bridges, fuel stocks and storages, that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
The figures above do not include the areas where Russia retains superiority; jet fighter air-craft, Tu-95 heavy bombers, ships and submarines in the Black and Caspian Seas. However, since February 2022, Russia has lost; 315 air-craft, 310 helicopters, 18 Ships and boats, including the flagship, Moskva.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
{VDV - Russian Airborne Forces
The Russian Airborne Forces is the airborne forces branch of the Russian Armed Forces. It was formed in 1992 from units of the Soviet Airborne Forces that came under Russian control following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Wikipedia}
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I am sorry that is what you believe. I disagree, and here is why. The statement is a little long, but I cannot offer a reasonable response in just two or three lines.
Rapid End to WAR & Attrition of Military Resources.
There will be no military stalemate or frozen conflict "at close to the current lines". Neither will there be a ceasefire before the RuZZian military and administrative personnel have been ejected from internationally recognised Ukrainian territory. Those who have been charged and found guilty of crimes, including war crimes will be sentenced appropriately for the crimes committed.
The current conference/coalition of nearly 60 countries will continue to support Ukraine until the primary objective has been achieved. There will be no peace in this world until those goals have been achieved and Russia is, in some way, restrained from attacking other countries.
Many people are saying, "We could have ended this WAR last year, if Ukraine had been given all they needed". What people seem to forget, or simply do not know, is that:
#** February 2022 Russia had nearly 3 times as many tanks as Ukraine had prior to Feb 2022.
Russia 3,400 tanks Ukraine 1,400 tanks {60% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Ukraine's tank inventory is believed to be considerably better equipped and have greater capacity and firepower than the Russians and they now have more, outnumbering the Russians by ~50%.
Russia 990 tanks Ukraine 1,500 tanks {50% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Russia had 14% more heavy guns and artillery in Feb 2022
Russia 2,200 Artillery Ukraine 1,900 Artillery {14% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 Artillery and heavy guns inventories are:
Russia 773 Artillery Ukraine 1,100 Artillery {42% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
#** February 2022 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems {MLRS}
Russia 1,100 MLRS Ukraine 840 MLRS {25% advantage to Russians}
July 2023 the numbers of MLRS are:
Russia 354 MLRS Ukraine 427 MLRS {20% advantage to Ukrainians} #+++
Had an all out WAR been fought in the early months of 2022, Russia would have had an advantage of nearly 3:1 against Ukraine in terms of military hardware. That advantage may well have been considerably greater for Russia, because of respective levels of training of military personnel on the various platforms being used, and the elements of logistics and supply.
Today, Russia's inventory of military hardware is believed to actually be less than that of Ukraine in all the categories above. Ukraine has depleted Russia of much of its land-based hardware, probably most of the best of the Russian troops and massive amounts of ammunition and also a lot of the infrastructure; railways, roads, bridges and fuel stocks and storages, that Russia relies on for movement of troops, hardware and ammunition. That depletion of Russian military assets continues.
The figures above do not include the areas where Russia retains superiority; jet fighter air-craft, Su-95 heavy bombers, ships and submarines in the Black and Caspian Seas. However, since February 2022, Russia has lost; 315 air-craft, 310 helicopters, 18 Ships and boats, including the flagship, Moskva.
By this gradual process of attrition of the hardware, equipment, ammunition and {unfortunately, from a humanitarian perspective} Russian military personnel, I believe that many lives, particularly of Ukrainian civilians and military personnel, have been saved.
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Don't we often witness exactly that same dynamic in our everyday experiences. The evil gangs take advantage of all the positive aspects of the relatively "GOOD" people and they do so quickly. There is no reason for them to be cautious. They count on speed and surprise. Among people motivated in these ways, there is the mentality of "take the lot, or lose the game" - "quick in and quick out".
The people operating from a "GOOD" perspective are often cautious, in case their actions may hurt another person or people. They often take time to weigh up alternatives, in terms of their legitimate benefit or merit for themselves and others.
Woops, the game is over, the evil doers have already been and gone.
I do not mean this statement to be either cynical or sarcastic. Rather that People operating with GOOD intentions need to have thought out the plan and process, and prepared the implementation of the plan right up front and have contingency plans ready in case another person or group plans to short circuit and or "take the money and run".
This present situation, where Russia claims that it is not waging WAR against Ukraine, but against member countries of the NATO Defensive Alliance, is a prime example. It was Russia that did the planning and lulled the Free World, West aligned countries into a false sense of security. The Free World, for 30+ years were gradually being groomed by Russia. Classic FSB / KGB style of operating. Then Russia sprung the trap. It is Russia that are fighting against the West, the Free World, because that is what they had intended all along.
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