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Zeihan on Geopolitics
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Comments by "" (@jonlittle5032) on "Ukraine: F-16s, Offensives, and Abject Humiliation || Peter Zeihan" video.

@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 If Zelenskyy escalated, it was in response to the Russian invasion of his country.
17
@Withnail1969 No, they HAVE been firing that much artillery, and gained what? Bahkmut? And most of those shells are North Korean. That well is going to dry up.
8
@haveagoodone5830 Do yourself a favor and get a current calendar. The world (including Ukraine) is not the same as it was 8 years ago.
7
@Withnail1969 They've had 6 months to do FOD walks on those runways, sport.
7
@Withnail1969 Again. 6 months. FOD (foreign object damage) walks. Who says the airfields have not been prepped? You?
7
@Withnail1969 Try harder, friend. No one is partaking of your drinks.
6
@teekay_1 Isolated, Russia needs a century to recover. With international support not equaled since the Marshall Plan, Ukraine will need a decade.
6
@Withnail1969 Ukraine has had trained pilots from before the war. They have been training in Western countries on the F-16 airframe for the past year. Plenty of time.
5
@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 I don't chase pet rabbits.
4
@haveagoodone5830 So, I'm confused. Are you saying nations act in their own best interests? Wow. I'm underwhelmed. Such cognitive ability. And I thought you were just a bridge dweller.
4
@Withnail1969 Wrong. Fighter Jet training lasts about 2 years and starts with Basic Flight School, Basic Tactical Flight school and then Advanced Tactical Training. Only then, do they get specific air frame training.Ukrainian pilots don't need the first three.
4
@teekay_1 LOL. Russia lost the battle for will, men, and logistics long ago. I think we all know it is Putin and Lavrov who have been way over their heads since the start.
4
@haveagoodone5830 You've put ol' comb-moustache in the wrong column
3
@haveagoodone5830 False equivalency, sport. Try again, this time stay on topic.
3
@haveagoodone5830 You can bow out anytime, sport. I'm not holding you down.
3
@teddypicker8799 Do you know what a turn and burn is? Those figures on average hours maintenance, include things like phased inspections. In war, those numbers go way down. You do phased maintenance and non-red X maintenance when the plane isn't scheduled to fly.
3
@karlvongazenberg8398 How many Iranian drones and missiles did it take to create a couple craters?
3
@scottwhitethebest Are we talking Putin's soldiers fighting in the Donbass without identifying markers? What were they called again?
3
@kosta2177 And what air frames are they going up against? If Russian MiGs are so good, why don't they have air superiority, three years later? Russian Air is no better than Russian Navy.
3
@Really250 Given that the Russians do not understand air defense, I understand your confusion.
3
@milesb2111 No. It is because attack postures are intrinsically more exposed.
3
@dougaltolan3017 Don't count on it, Doug. This one is all mouth.
3
@dougaltolan3017 Watch. He'll come up with something he thinks is clever about being all mouth. It is like discussing something with AI. None of it true, most of it nonsensical, but always rabid. My mistake. He'll key off on that last word. Makes for better gut-twists. Right, sport?
3
You wish.
3
@Koz4concern He doesn't hide the fact that he knows demographics and geopolitics. Wrote the book(s) on it, in fact. Also does work for DoD and private companies and industry organizations who want to know what the future might bring. But you hid that info, didn't you, sport?
3
@haraldhardrade7539 It was called 'russia' back then, sport.
2
@spartjovic People need to listen to what he actually said.
2
@Withnail1969 Again. You realize no one is drinking with you.
2
@Withnail1969 You do know both EU and US passed support packages and equipment and material are already being used? Did you not listen to the video? Ukraine has been increasing its barrages. What shortage are you talking about?
1
@waynemasters8673 You are an embarrassment to our side.
1
@gifmesome Yeah! I think Putin called them 'threats' at the time.
1
@Withnail1969 When are you signing up for something you believe in?
1
@teddypicker8799 Air power. Huh. Did you watch the video?
1
@teddypicker8799 Wrong.
1
@teddypicker8799 a dozen? against Russia? Ok, maybe that's a little overkill, but, what the heck.
1
@teddypicker8799 Is it 17? 5? 10? y'alls gotta get your stories straight.
1
@teddypicker8799 During exercises (you know, practicing war conditions) sortie rates go way up.
1
@teddypicker8799 A turn and burn is when a fighter comes down, pulls in, and sits and waits while the ground crew reloads and refuels. 10-15 minutes. It's like a pit stop at the Indy 500. No maintenance. So it is relevant and you need to watch Top Gun again, because they never showed a turn and burn. I know, because I watched it at the base theater when it came out. Dam Navy always gets the good movies; all we get is Iron Eagle. "Chappie? Can I fire a missile on the ground?" Half the theater walked it. NO!
1
@teddypicker8799 LOL. DUDE. I was on a turn and burn pit for 3 years. Do NOT tell me what it is.
1
@teddypicker8799 And there is no 'turn and burn' maneuver. Describe it, if you know.
1
@teddypicker8799 DCS?? A video GAME?! Yeah. I'm sorry, dude. 200 hours on a game machine. That beats actual TIG/TIS.
1
@teddypicker8799 Sims do not simulate ground ops.
1
@teddypicker8799 And you accuse me of learning something from a movie that you haven't watched. Classic!
1
@teddypicker8799 You would know, bro.
1
@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 That's the best you got? Day old snark? Black Cat Dung is right.
1
@haveagoodone5830 So why, with a navy and an air force, does the Russia navy retreat while Ukraine ships grain from Odesa and Russian AF cannot attain air superiority when you say Ukraine has neither? Evidence? How about results? or lack thereof.
1
@haveagoodone5830 Lots of words that fail to address the observations that the Russian Navy is in retreat and the Russian Air Force can't hold the sky and, after three years, the Russian Army is sill the second best army in Ukraine. Keep trying.
1
@haveagoodone5830 This verbosity tells me y'alls are terrified of what the Ukrainians can do with the F-16s.
1
@haveagoodone5830 Classic. Declare victory and retreat.
1
@haveagoodone5830 F-16s: Coming soon to a theatre (of operations) very near you.
1
@haveagoodone5830 If y'alls are terrified of the consequences, leave Ukraine.
1
@haveagoodone5830 I like the trademark comma at the start of your posts. Very edgy.
1
@haveagoodone5830 If the Falcons are irrelevant, there is no nuclear scenario. Unless the Kremlin wants one. And they don't, so they won't.
1
@haveagoodone5830 I think your last post got bounced. I saw the count go up, and then back down. Shame on you.
1
@haveagoodone5830 Would it not make more sense to disable the Russian's domesday machine? to prevent irresponsible leaders from using the threat of it as a blunt instrument?
1
@haveagoodone5830 By your logic, F-16s in Ukraine threaten to trigger Putin to strike with a nuclear attack. Why are a couple 'ineffective' F-16s the problem, but Putin's blatant threat to push the button is not the problem?
1
@haveagoodone5830 Russia has the same 'concept'. Don't be disingenuous.
1
@haveagoodone5830 Putin or F-16's: Which is the biggest nuclear threat?
1
@haveagoodone5830 It isn't part of US Military Doctrine either. Again, disingenuous.
1
@haveagoodone5830 Putin has repeatedly threatened European cities with first strike; Deployed F-16s threaten only Russian air defense and Russian air force illegally operating in Ukraine territory: which is more dangerous? Vlad or Falcons?
1
@haveagoodone5830 LOL! I undestand your flight. To say that Putin's threats to 'retaliate' with nuclear weapons is not a first strike is, well, typically Russian. Thank you for clarifying your CONTEXT.
1
@haveagoodone5830 Putin is not threatening mere retaliation; nor is it mere escalation - though both specific actions would be an act of war under international law. What he threatens is first use of nukes. That is a quantum difference from retaliation or escalation, which is the CONTEXT you explained earlier. F-16s are not the nuclear trigger; Putin's finger is.
1
@albertwesker828 One that fires at incoming missiles before they hit their target.
1
If you know what he has said about this in thee past, why do you want to hear it again?
1
@MD97531 Because they aren't. It is all smoke and mirrors on a contract by contract basis.
1
@Coover90210 Wow. A lot to unpack, most not worth my time. If you want to sink your money into a currency with no intrinsic value, please do. Fiat, btw, has intrinsic value. That is why the ruble and yuan have little value compared to any western currency, especially the US dollar.
1
@Coover90210 Bigger answer: why do you care about mine?
1
@Coover90210 1971? and it is now 2024, and that 'writing' is fading? When does it end? 2071?
1
All money from the channel goes to charity. He makes his living providing expert analysis around the world to corporations, industry groups, government agencies. Literally wrote the book(s) on demographics and geopolitical analysis. Try harder, sport.
1
@MotoMatsalleh Yes you did. Innuendo, insinuation, and implication. Try harder, sport.
1
@michaelweaver2627 Given what Russia has to put up against the F-16, I wouldn't be overly concerned.
1
@Withnail1969 Nope. Resurfaced, maybe. Those air fields were serviceable for the planes the Ukrainians already have. The vacuum cleaner of the F-16 requires only a cleanup operation. And the Ukrainians have had nearly a year to get ready. They only need one air field ready to begin operations.
1
@kosta2177 Wrong. On all counts.
1
@Withnail1969 How much TIG/TIS do you have on the F-16 air frame?
1
@Withnail1969 Hey, lil'buddy. Someone take the wind out of your sails?
1
@scottwhitethebest Wot's your point?
1
@Withnail1969 Oldest dodge in the books, my friend.
1
@Withnail1969 You really don't know what a FOD walk is, do you? How much TIG, again?
1
@Withnail1969 Ground attack aircraft are useless without air superiority. TIG?
1
@Withnail1969 Need to secure the airspace before sending in warthogs and other attack aircraft.
1
@Withnail1969 Yes they can.
1
@Withnail1969 You do understand that is all standard doctrine? As in, we got something for that already.
1
@kosta2177 Nope. The ranges are comparable, and the Russians are flying primarily SU-34s, not MiGs. And it is far easier to protect an airbase than a big city. It is much smaller.
1
@Really250 The very good reason they haven't gotten in-country until now is politics, not logistics.
1
@davecohn6407 Uh, you do know that Ukraine has military air bases? They were kind of on the front line of the Cold War, sport.
1
@davecohn6407 Try again, sport. They're right there, on the map even.
1
@davecohn6407 "If they take off from NATO ..." Do you know what a touch n go is?
1
@davecohn6407 You do understand that pretty soon, we are just going to ignore Putin's threats.
1
@davecohn6407 Seriously, try again.
1
@Really250 It does not void Art 5. If Russia responds, it is still an attack on NATO countries. Do you really think lawyers and judges make those decisions?
1
@Really250 Besides, what is with this 'we'? You're Russian.
1
@harleyquinn8202 If Russians hit anything in Poland, it isn't Russia who decides if Art. 5 is invoked. Who do you think makes the determination it would be considered as aggression?
1
@Really250 Really? Nope. Nothing says that would automatically void it.l
1
@harleyquinn8202 NATO, collectively and individually decides. If Putin wanted a nuclear war, he would have started it already. We've discounted him. The point is, those planes will not be attacking Russia, they will attack Russian troops in Ukrainian territory, so if Russia responds, it is an unprovoked attack on NATO.
1
@harleyquinn8202 You misunderstand the dynamics.
1
@harleyquinn8202 Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has repeatedly said the value of nuclear weapons is not in their use, but in the threat they pose. Once you use them, they lose value.
1
@harleyquinn8202 Nice try, sport. No one is pushing any buttons.
1
@harleyquinn8202 If Russia hits Poland, it won't matter what they say they are targeting.
1
@harleyquinn8202 Nice bit of disingenuous bullying. There will be a response.
1
@Withnail1969 Have you personally inspected those runways? I assure you, the Ukrainians have and are resurfacing what needs to be resurfaced.
1
@Withnail1969 I have seen one from the inside out. Have you?
1
@Withnail1969 USAF has been maintaining F-16s for decades, in all conditions. Try not to interpret what others say; you are not good at it.
1
@Withnail1969 The level of angst from the naysayers is palpable. You do understand how dangerous the Fighting Falcons are to Russia, don't you?
1
@spartjovic Not what I said, sport. That's what you are saying. So I'll take a seat and let you perform your seal act a bit more.
1
@Withnail1969 Because they are mostly women and children.
1
@jiridrapal7512 What advance? At what cost?
1
@jamescook7713 If you knew simple math, you'd be able to count. But you don't.
1
@dl6519 Tolerance for casualties equals meat waves. So much for hearts and minds.
1
@jamescook7713 She also knows it is a trolltrap. LOL. Try harder sport.
1
@jamescook7713 Oh, she didn't mention that? I wonder why? Are you not on good relations with your x's? Well. That says a lot.
1
@jamescook7713 Basic Dec 1983, Lacklund AFB. Trained at Chanute AFB 1984. Try again, JUNIOR. What is a 42674?
1
@jamescook7713 You are right. P like you needs to know who he is talking to.
1
@jamescook7713 C'mon, JR. Every AF vet is laughing at you. Any one with 30 years TIS will know the answer to my question without thinking about it. Great line from Ghostbusters them song is coming to mind (yes, I saw it when it was first released. You were probably too young to see it.
1
@jamescook7713 Pilot means officer. 29 years means at least full bird. Retired only a couple years ago. Jacking with someone's name is middle school locker room. Flag Officers don't talk like that, disrespecting the service and all; unless they want to lose their pension. So. Graduate from HS yet? What is the answer to the question that every AF Vet knows? Don't bother with the internet; it is a pre-net thing.
1
@jamescook7713 Little jimmy. Why would a retired USAF flag officer belittle someone defending US foreign policy?
1
@Withnail1969 The level of angst from the naysayers is palpable. You do understand how dangerous the Fighting Falcons are to Russia, don't you?
1
@dougaltolan3017 He may be getting paid, but I'm retired.
1
@dougaltolan3017 He's actually better than most. Actually says something. The others think all it takes is to throw trashy insults. Like I said, I'm retired. Heard it all a dozen times.
1
@dougaltolan3017 Nuts. I scared him off. Gonna take a break. Look up about 10 hours, jamescook7713, I think. He was fun. Teenager pretending to be a retired USAF general. I'm still laughing. Take care.
1
@jiridrapal7512 Drop the snark and explain what a force multiplier is, if you think someone doesn't understand it the way you do.
1
Oh, I'm sorry. You are implying he is a shill. That'd be you, yogi.
1
@Withnail1969 You mean the 1/4 million Russian young men who fled the country last year?
1