Comments by "" (@EbenBransome) on "the dramatic irony in the sinking of the Bayesian" video.

Actual marine architects have already analysed this, and put forward credible explanations based on the design of the yacht and conditions in the Med as to why the boat sunk and why the crew almost all survived. There's no need for conspiracy theories. So far, the only credible criticism levelled at the captain is that perhaps he should have got the passengers on deck as soon as he was aware of the storm severity - but under those conditions there may not have been time. As one sailor said, most of the time things happen on boats quite slowly but when they go wrong they can go wrong extremely fast. One of the saddest things about this for me is all the people complaining about excessive publicity being given to the sinking. They probably just have no idea how important Lynch was in the computing world. We always seem to know the names of American equivalents but not British ones. They also probably have no idea that when a San Francisco academic disappeared on his small boat in the Bay, the search and rescue attempts were also very large and were funded by the computing industry in the area. It was all over the computing and IT press - but the mass media weren't interested because there was no "exciting" background story.
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Bayes's theorem states that the probability of an event A given an event B is true is equal to the probability of B if A is true, multiplied by the probability of A and divided by the probability of B. P(A|B) = P(B|A)*P(A)/P(B). - Bayes's Theorem is of great importance in the fields of medical trials, experiment design and testing. An example is this: Suppose you have a group of people one in a hundred of whom are criminals. You have a lie detector which is correct 90% of the time. So most people think that if you tested 100 people, you would have a 90% chance of detecting the criminal. Wrong. The one time in 10 that the test is wrong could well be an equal chance of a false negative (guilty person found innocent) or a false positive (innocent person found guilty). Therefore if you run the lie detector on 100 people, you will find 5 people guilty who were not - i.e. 1 in 20. This is relevant to both the Post Office scandal and the Lucy Letby case.
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No. Karma is the Buddhist concept of the accretion of the world-illusion (maya) preventing liberation from the Wheel of being. There is no good or bad karma, there is just karma. It's a concept totally misunderstood by most Westerners. Your comment is actually pretty disgusting.
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Lynch's work has provided well paid employment to a lot of people in this country.
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There were no sails on it.
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It's a boat designed to get the maximum out of sails. How is that not responsible?
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@RadioJonophone Fair enough, post edited.
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@moblet That was already done when the small sailboat owned by a well known San Francisco data scientist went missing in fog in the Bay. Sadly he was never found, but I believe that the analysis carried out led to some promising approaches in future to missing vessels and aircraft.
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@christopherspavins9250 In sail days the RN regularly captured French and Spanish ships and renamed them without problems.
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@Humanity101-zp4sq So is St. Paul's Cathedral. So are the Pyramids, La Scala and the Bol'shoi. Where in your utilitarian world do you stop?
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@Humanity101-zp4sq Yes. They were built as an expression of pride and power by the upper classes in society. I excluded the Duomo in Firenze because that was actually built by the civis and used as a public meeting place. But the others were foci for the rich and powerful. And what has "when" got to do with it? Human nature doesn't change.
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They were moored and the adjacent yacht which was nearly as big weathered the storm.
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Lynch wasn't a billionaire. He got about £500 million from Autonomy - which he actually founded, unlike Musk with Tesla and Twitter - and was then prevented from starting up a new company by the trial.
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Marine architects already discounted this. That keel is designed for use when high winds are blowing against an enormous sail. There were no sails.
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The US government was purely and simply out to get Lynch to cover up the incompetence of the poorly managed but iconic HP company. The CEO of HP who arranged the deal was pushed out barely two months after it took place: his other disastrous decision was to abandon the mobile phone industry, which gives you some idea. The fact that a jury was not taken in speaks volumes.
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It isn't to show anybody anything. How many corrupt Popes died of old age? Same for the "Reverend doctor" Ian Paisley. Evangelical Christianity is possibly the biggest irrational conspiracy theory out.
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How about academics who have a brilliant idea, build up a large company, employ lots of people on high salaries? I object to people walking in (e.g. to top job at HP or IBM) to existing companies and being paid telephone numbers. But when someone builds up a company from scratch, that's a very different matter. The fact that HP screwed the pooch is neither here nor there. Lynch's work was important and it added value to society. It is childish to confuse someone like him with a leech like Musk who got rich off other people's work.
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