Comments by "Peter" (@peter65zzfdfh) on "Technology Connections"
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There's not really such a thing as 'exceeding grid capacity' on a national level. There has ALWAYS been times and locations where a specific area may end up exceeding its local capacity, usually at a peak time (when everyone is getting home from work/school usually), and there's been a lot of excessive building to avoid that. EVs are actually somewhat of an answer to the problem, as there's no reason they need to be charged at that peak time, there's no reason they need to have any negative impact to the grid at that time. If managed right they can actually reduce strain on the grid by charging from those intermittent renewables or when base load has surplus overnight, and have it available for use during peak events.
Heat pumps use much much less power than resistive electric heaters, so the overall impact of them is likely a reduction in electricity usage for heating, even if some people are switching from gas. Peak heating demand just isn't at the same time as peak electricity demand. That's more often peak cooling demand (eg, people get home from work in the middle of summer and the house is all hot). So air conditioners are the biggest culprit for grid capacity demands, not so much during the day when solar is probably around, but on very overcast hot days or just after sunset. Most of trying to address capacity is really just dealing with an hour or two of that 'peak' demand, something that tends to rely on batteries / hydro etc to get through.
If you snapped your fingers tomorrow and literally EVERYONE had an EV, then maybe they could be a problem. But in reality they are still a small % of the vehicle fleet and that's not likely to change dramatically for the better part of a decade unless you're in Norway.
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The velocity of the air out of the gas furnace is higher, thus it needs to be hotter to not feel cold. The air out of my heat pump barely moves, it's a light puff, and because it throttles down rather than turns on/off, that light puff of warm air is way way more than enough to keep the place hot, inaudibly, vs a noisy roaring fire beast of a furnace that's clicking loudly on and off and cycling between too hot and too cold. Basically slow warm air all the time > noisy fast hot air for a brief period. I have mine set to 22ºC (71.6F.) It's inaudible, you can't tell it's running at all unless you put your hand up next to it, and the place is that constant temperature all day long. I have 'cold' elderly relatives that make me work up a sweat just sitting when I visit them, and you still can't hear or feel their heat pump working.
You can get pretty hot air out of a heat pump, they just run more efficiently at lower temperature differences, thus the short cycling of an oversized unit with too high a minimum operating range will be a) noisier and b) less efficient. Thus it's even more important not to oversize a heat pump.
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A 60,000 BTU gas furnace running 6 hours is going to produce 360,000 BTU of heat, at a cost of 180,000 BTU of energy. A 20,000 BTU heat pump running 24 hours is going to produce 480,000 BTU of heat at an input cost of energy equivalent to 80,000 to 160,000 BTU worth of input energy (depending on a number of factors including outside temperature and requested inside temperature). Heat pumps have inverters, and the smaller the change the pump is trying to make, the less energy it uses, one heat pump running 50% of the time doing the same work as another running 100% of the time will probably use about 25% more energy to do it. Bigger heat pumps can scale down their usage, so oversizing isn't the end of the world, but they have certain minimums, which will be larger for the larger unit, so while the larger unit may even be more efficient on the coldest day, on average it will be less efficient.
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You need to experience a decent, modern, inverter unit. They throttle down and do not need to blow air that fast, also one of the reason for larger ducts is so that the air velocity can actually be lower, so there's less of a breeze than with a gas furnace. Gas furnaces need to be warmer to avoid what you get for free with a larger heat pump vent (or a split system). Also more oversized units (as Alec points out) will have a higher minimum flow rate, thus probably lead to more colder air, vs a right sized unit that doesn't need to push as much are at a minimum, but can fill it with more heat per unit volume at the more efficient setting.
Gas here increased in price about 10x over the last 10 years. I saved a heap switching away from it. It's a white elephant here, a massive cost saving to go to heat pumps.
Also the irony in you believing if there was a dire threat we'd be moving away while noting the unstoppable impact of companies and governments pushing the responsibility onto you so they don't have to take any? Yeah, that's why we've not made major moves.
People whined about 'paid bags' at stores here for all of 2 months before 99% of people brought their own reusable bags they bought once for $1 then used for the next 5 years, and everyone else got on with it. I get it change feels hard, but it's honestly not. Hope you get better from your depression. Things are not as bad as you think, the solutions are easy and convenient, once people swore they'd never use computers, then never use mobile phones, then never use the internet, now those people are swearing off whatever else on that internet they swore they'd never use.
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Because modern units are designed to ramp down, they don't need to run at 100% all the time, they are very quickly at 25% and operating more efficiently, and much quieter, they use a heap less power than old units that cranked on to 100% then off, and it's much less noticeable than a start/stop, what little noise there is constant. You can get units that are basically inaudible, even ductless units, once you have a ducted system you *absolutely cannot hear them*, the noise floor is below a whisper. Cheap units are bad, good units are good.
Never seen a house with heat strips, not for 20 years here. Just simply not required.
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Yes, they'll run 100% of the time easier than they will turn off and on, it's more on/off cycles of the compressor than duty cycle of the compressor that will lead to wear. They have onboard logic that ramps down the speed they run at when not needed as to be more efficient, this also leads to longer life vs turning the whole thing on and off. Also, this is for the one coldest day of the year, if it was running at 100% flat out, all day for weeks, then it's probably undersized. But a day or two, no problem. I've run mine for weeks and weeks and weeks continuously for over a decade, it just manages its own compressor based on what's the most efficient, they have logic to keep them from doing anything silly like short cycling too hard.
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This isn't actually true with modern AC units, they use less power per unit of heat/cool at lower utilization, as they have inverters and ramp down to lower settings that allow them to more efficiently exchange the heat. They also tend to have a 'minimum' they can run at based on the size of the unit. So a very small unit will 99.9% of the time actually use less power for the same result as a larger unit, assuming the outdoor exchanger is the same size (there are several breaks in indoor sizes where they share the same outdoor unit).
Because they ramp down, and are more efficient, the air temperature exiting the ducts doesn't need to be much warmer than the indoor air at all. Yes, if you have a horrifically insulated home, you might feel it needs to be, but any bare minimum modern standard home, you do not want 140 degree air, you will have a boiling hot part of the room and a freezing part of the room when what you want is the whole room being warm.
The 'resistive backup' if you watched the video is in case the entire system fails so that pipes don't freeze, not to be used on 99.8% of days. Here we don't get freezing pipes, we wouldn't need any backup. But if you're running a 'resistive backup' for only a couple of hours a year, a smaller system for most of the year will save you money as most of the time it will run in a more efficient zone. Also if you watched the video the ducts are inside, so any heat escaping them is entering the house anyway, more evenly than a furnace blasting it out the vent before shutting off a few seconds later or overheating the whole room.
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