Comments by "Walter Burton" (@WalterBurton) on "DIY with Dave" channel.

  1. I think you're right. Even if something happens due to the different negotiating posture vis transportation, that's only going to cause a minimal price shift. Which could go in either direction, honestly. That's the only thing I can think of. Seems like this is going to be an upgrade.
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  2. You're assuming that OPEC is capable of increasing output, that they'll be capable of replacing all of that Russian oil and natgas. The evidence suggests that they're essentially pumping at capacity right now.
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  3.  @DIYwithDave  : 100%. Both of y'all. 👍👍👍
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  4. Bold prediction. Look forward to revisiting this. 👍
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  5. 👍👍👍
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  6. The copper input (price) will come down near-to-middling term because of relatively straightforward supply realignment; the petro input will swing back up as Russian crude comes off the market and China gradually reopens. What I don't have is any sense of how scarcity of the end product is going to shake out. That is, it's not clear to me how cratering demand (for wire) in China (they do NOT need any more housing!) balances against the upward demand pressure in the US. 🤔
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  7. 👍👍👍
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  8. Every commodity market is essentially trying to land a 747 in the same hurricane. Trying to modulate. All of us, really. It's going to be a bumpy landing, even if it doesn't crash.
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  9. 👍👍👍
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  10. 👍👍👍
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  11. 👍👍👍 (I suspect you meant to put "bfm" on the chart, or just "bf.")
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  12. 👍👍👍
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  13.  @DIYwithDave  : China reopening (getting out from under their "zero COVID" policy) is the wildcard. OPEC is betting they will (sooner rather than later). That would smooth out the inputs markets, even if we go into a technical recession. But it also means that the meager spare capacity (which might not actually exist, because they haven't been able to hit preset targets, but maybe that's down to COVID, who knows?) it's gone. Then, after inputs, we have to look at the actual refined products. We're at gasoline refinery capacity. There's nuance in the crude grades and transportation and whatnot, but I don't see how we get meaningfully lower fuel prices without a massive demand shock. No, I won't be surprised if we see $2 pump prices again, but I will be surprised if we see this within the next 2 decades. Huge qualification: This assumes the current world order holds. I wouldn't take that bet. I'm pretty much at the point where I'd comfortably bet against that premise. What's that curse about living in unprecedented times? :-)
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  14. 👍👍👍
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