Comments by "Walter Burton" (@WalterBurton) on "" video.

You're assuming that OPEC is capable of increasing output, that they'll be capable of replacing all of that Russian oil and natgas. The evidence suggests that they're essentially pumping at capacity right now.
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@DIYwithDave : China reopening (getting out from under their "zero COVID" policy) is the wildcard. OPEC is betting they will (sooner rather than later). That would smooth out the inputs markets, even if we go into a technical recession. But it also means that the meager spare capacity (which might not actually exist, because they haven't been able to hit preset targets, but maybe that's down to COVID, who knows?) it's gone. Then, after inputs, we have to look at the actual refined products. We're at gasoline refinery capacity. There's nuance in the crude grades and transportation and whatnot, but I don't see how we get meaningfully lower fuel prices without a massive demand shock. No, I won't be surprised if we see $2 pump prices again, but I will be surprised if we see this within the next 2 decades. Huge qualification: This assumes the current world order holds. I wouldn't take that bet. I'm pretty much at the point where I'd comfortably bet against that premise. What's that curse about living in unprecedented times? :-)
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