Comments by "Walter Burton" (@WalterBurton) on "Anders Puck Nielsen"
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I enjoy your work, Anders, but your positions on this issue ultimately fall to the unstated major premise that NATO will muster a unified response to the deployment of a "small" weapon. Why is China acting against its best interest, regarding Russia, and, specifically, on this exact point?
You did qualify what you said with the stipulation that RUS won't win the war in Ukraine with a tactical nuke. That it won't deploy it on the battlefield, to take territory. I don't know. Probably not. There are all kinds of crazy area denial scenarios and whatnot, but who knows, whatever, probably not.
What if they hit some reindeer in BFE Finland, and then say, "See? We can do it, and we will do it. Back-off! We want the Donbas and Crimea and the rest of the coast to Odesa, and in exchange, blah blah blah."
Everything has to be balanced against China's actions, and what they express, as regards approval of the Kremlin's behavior. China supports all of this.
I fear we're overestimating our resolve in the face of fuzzy thresholds, and that the Axis of Assholes has figured this out.
EDIT: Corrected my typo that actually wasn't a typo, and then came back to correct the correction. Sorry! ðĪŠ
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