Comments by "Cross Link" (@crosslink1493) on "The Failure of Chinese Real Estate || Peter Zeihan" video.

  1. But fortunately in the West we don't have 'tiered cities', so if you can't find employment in your current city or you feel housing costs are too high, you can move to another city with lower-cost housing and/or more employment opportunities without government restrictions. And as for the USA specifically, its not that hard to switch job fields (relative to China) so with a little bit of 'due diligence' and 'skills transfer' a person can find new employment. Free market economics, not centrally-planned like in China.
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  2. If you pay attention to finance you'd see they (the CCP) are starting to get more desperate, putting stricter capital controls in place (especially for outflows), subsidizing exports to keep production up and products flowing out to the world, not trying to shift the economy/rebalance it (even though its a communist-style centralized government), and their stock markets are unpredictable ( vs western stock market). Its not going to be a rapid drop, buts its a slow and steady decline. And I wouldn't rule out a "black swan" event occurring that could accelerate the decline.
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  3. A lot of companies that relied on China for assembly/production have already started moving out since the COVID years, so any disruption would be minimal; some higher prices, but no serious effect on the USA economy. I recently bought some electronic products that I assumed would have been made in China but the labels on them say 'Vietnam" and 'Malaysia'; maybe some internal part made in China, but the final assembly and packaging appears to be done elsewhere.
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  4. China's cars are not that old, so don't judge their "quality" based on subjective reviews of all the software and bright LED displays in them as they come out of the factory. The only data I've seen on drivability is some from Australia and the actual driving components seem to be pretty mediocre and lots of nagging problems with drivetrains/steering/handling/corrosion within the first 20,000K miles/30,000km.
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  5. Trump's border wall will suddenly turn from being overrun by Central/South Americans to Chinese people. 😉 If Xi is still in power I could see an invasion of Taiwan just to instill nationalism and divert attention from the economic collapse.
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  6. The USA's financials and financial markets are open and transparent to the world (including the $35T debt), that's why the USA dollar is looked at as the 'standard'. Chinese finances are considered very 'opaque', controlled, and highly 'fudged'. Example I've heard a few times is the CCP mentions national debt is only about $10T (in USD), but outside financial observers estimate that leaves out provincial debt which would take it up to about $30T (also USD).
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  7. You're going to have to look it up yourself if you want specifics. He does make a few admissions in the video that he looked at a variety of sources beyond official CCP data but they all varied from that data so some of what he says is somewhere between a 'best estimate' and a wild-a$$-guess.
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