Comments by "" (@advancetotabletop5328) on "Reventure Consulting" channel.

  1. But the administration and Fed says everything is wonderful! Why would the government lie, right?
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  2. Six more stages to go, I bet. :/
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  3. Would like to see more videos of the deflationary crash, maybe once a month tracking it vs. the previous months? Keep up the good work!
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  4. Democrats have raise the cost of living for the poor through inflation: Food inflation at the grocery store, higher costs of doing business passed onto customers, and increased taxes on gasoline. But, at least you and your now unemployed friends are going to get a free block of cheese as you stand in the food line. Anyone remember the 1980’s.
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  5. Follow the CNN Fear and Greed Index. Sell when VIX is below 20 (like it is now) or when the Index is in Greed / Extreme Greed territory. Buy when the VIX is above 30/35, or when the Index is in Fear / Extreme Fear. Also, watch Sentiment Trader’s Smart Money and Dumb Money charts. Right now, Dumb Money is entering the market, while Smart Money is leaving. Sign of a market downturn, though not overnight.
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  6. Pro-tenant laws are driving out “mom and pop” landlords, who are more interested in preserving capital and good tenants (ie. no headaches). When “mom and pop” go out, corporate comes in, and corporate has got to make them profits. Corporate has more units than “mom and pop”, so can spread risk over mulitiple tenants. Conversely, if you’re the only renter, you have more leverage over your landlord. Unlike corporate, once the “mom and pop” landlord passes away, the step-up in basis for a property means Junior can sell the house without paying capital gains taxes. Who‘s going to buy that house? Yep, corporate.
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  7. Agreed. SVB and First Republic can‘t be the only banks who made risky decisions. And, with interest rates going up, “zombie companies”, who relied on cheap interest rates to stay afloat, are also going to be bankrupt. This may have a domino effect as companies whose clients are bankrupt themselves go bankrupt and can‘t pay those they owe money to — not to mention their employees who now find themselves out of a job. Maybe the government can spend spend spend spend spend and buy out these commercial RE holdings, rezone to residential, and convert. Of course, the commerical RE industry would profit from this (not to mention pols with RE ties), at the taxpayer’s expense.
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  8. Commenters are calling for vacancy taxes, but this may have the perverse effect of decreasing the amount of RE available when the economy returns. Companies can also create shell companies whose sole purpose is to “rent” space to go around any vacancy taxes. The worst case is that a commercial RE company goes out of business (and bankruptcies are increasing), and abandons the property, leaving the banks in a more precarious position.
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  9. See also: Millenium Tower, SF.
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