Youtube comments of The Armchair Historian (@TheArmchairHistorian).
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Protect yourself online by using ExpressVPN. Get 3 extra months free by using this link: https://www.expressvpn.com/armchair
Which two nations do you want to see covered next? If you guys enjoyed this video, we can release our battle simulator on our website!
*SPOILERS*
---
BEHIND THE SCENES: https://youtu.be/2VLHW19BIfs
An explanation to the American victory:
You are taking highly trained, freshly equipped, and battle-hardened (Italy & Africa) American troops, against mid-1944 static German infantry in Normandy. These troops don't even have enough supplies to be maneuvered, hence the name static. They were not the disciplined soldiers you would find on the eastern front. Regular infantry in this region comprised of foreign conscripts and wounded Germans. If we were talking about Grenadiers, Waffen SS, Panzergrenadiers, Volksgrenadiers, Fallschirmjaeger, or even just standard German infantry from 1940-1943 we'd probably see a German victory.
Even still, we came to the conclusion these quickly thrown together units would win 46% of the time, which is extremely impressive. In fact, our simulation stated that the Germans would win 55% of the time in rural environments, when the Americans are being engaged at further ranges, negating one of the main advantages of the fast-firing semi-automatic M1 Garand.
---
A note about the simulation:
The team did not blindly depend on the simulation to write the script. The battles included were completely made up and animated by hand to serve as a narrative for a video. There was no church tower or storming of the tower in the simulation program. The engagements were constructed to reflect our research about how the two country's squads behaved. The simulation does take into account for morale, suppression, intelligence, training, etc., however, it does not have any visuals, it just provides data and numbers and was calibrated by our researchers. You can look at our sources for this video - even if we hadn't designed our battle simulator, we would have presented the video in the exact same manner and arrived at a similar conclusion.
There was no actual footage, and I doubt my audience wants to see me present code for 10 minutes. That's something I can show on my side channel if there's interest. At no point did we claim we had scientific information, hence the disclaimer, "this is just our opinion" at the beginning of the video.
Lastly, we make these videos to both inform and to entertain. In real life, these types of engagements would have lasted hours, but we've condensed the battles to make them easier and more interesting to watch and understand...
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Hi Rimmy,
The team did not blindly depend on the simulation to write the script. The battles included were completely made up and animated by hand to serve as a narrative for a video. There was no church tower or storming of the tower in the simulation. The engagements were constructed to reflect our research about how the two country's squads behaved. The simulation does take into account for morale, suppression, intelligence, training, etc., however, it does not have any visuals, it just provides data and numbers and was calibrated by our researchers. You can look at our sources for this video - even if we hadn't designed our battle simulator, we would have presented the video in the exact same manner and arrived at a similar conclusion.
There was no actual footage, and I doubt my audience wants to see me present code for 10 minutes. That's something I can show on my side channel if there's interest. At no point did we claim we had scientific information, hence the disclaimer, "this is just our opinion" at the beginning of the video.
Thanks for the feedback,
Griff
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Thanks again to Sid Meier's Civilization VII for sponsoring this video! Click the link to purchase your copy today for Nintendo Switch, PS5, PS4, Xbox Series X|S, Xbox One, PC, Mac or Linux. https://gsght.com/c/1u7vqn. Don't forget Civilization VII players who link their 2K Account will receive Napoleon Bonaparte's Emperor Persona as an exclusive reward, and if you've played Civilization 6 with that same 2K Account, you'll get Napoleon's Revolutionary persona as well!
2K Account Linking Incentive (Napoleon Emperor) "Requires an internet connection, and a 2K Account linked to the platform account used to play Civilization VII. 2K Accounts are free. One per 2K Account. Reward will be automatically delivered in-game. Void where prohibited. Terms apply.
Loyalty Incentive (Napoleon Revolutionary) "*Requires an internet connection, and the same 2K Account linked to the platform account(s) used to play Civilization VI and Civilization VII. 2K Accounts are free. One per 2K Account. Reward will be automatically delivered in-game. Void where prohibited. Terms apply.
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Wow, I've got a story about this video...
I had hired a freelance animator to animate the video. Two weeks into her work, she had an emergency and was forced to stop working on the project, not her fault. That night, I decided to just animate the thing all at once until morning. With that said, if there are some graphical or audio issues, it's probably because I had to rush a little on this project, so I apologize for that.
*Quick note, I just made a Discord if you want to check it out: https://discord.gg/Ppb2cUd
The next video is going to be focused on Sedan, and the battles leading up to it. As I finished this video I felt like I didn't do the combat enough justice.
If you find mistakes, please post them under this comment!
Thanks for watching guys, I appreciate it!
Griff
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@RimmyDownunder Hey Rimmy,
Yeah we already knew what the result we wanted was and kept testing the simulator until it gave us a result that we found reasonable. We were careful though and didn't set it up with an exact percentage it would generate, we just kept putting in more data until the results became more reasonable. It did come out with German victories but when we averaged all of the types of scenarios the Americans had a slight edge. Tests we did for rural environments went as follows:
- US attack, German defend (rural) [German Victory 62%]
- US attack, German attack (rural) [US Victory 66%]
- US defend, German defend (rural) [German Victory 70%]
- US defend, German attack (rural) [US Victory 55%]
On average the Germans actually win more in open environments, which we thought was accurate considering the heavy casualties the Americans faced storming the open beaches in Omaha, and Utah.
We've also got forested terrain and urban terrain, which the Americans fare slightly better in because of the cover it provides against the MG42 and because their weapons are more mobile and geared towards close-range combat. I can release more of this information later on, on my side channel "Behind the Armchair" if you're interested.
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The North American theater was much different than the European one. Because very few troops were fighting in the first place, losing just a thousand men was a massive portion of one's army. In this war, especially early on, just a few hundred troops could turn the tide.
As the war progresses, more men are deployed on both sides, and the battles grow larger and larger. In 1775 and 1776, most of these smaller battles do play a huge role in how the war progresses in the coming years, once tens of thousands of men start enlisting. In the early days of the war, it's all about seizing land as quickly as you can, so that once both sides are fully mobilized, you have enough territory to draw men and supplies from.
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You are taking highly trained, freshly equipped and battle-hardened (Italy & Africa), American troops, against mid-1944 static German infantry in Normandy. These troops don't even have enough supplies to be maneuvered, hence the name static. They were not the disciplined soldiers you would find on the eastern front. Regular infantry in this region comprised of foreign conscripts and wounded Germans. If we were talking about Grenadiers, Waffen SS, Panzergrenadiers, Volksgrenadiers, Fallschirmjaeger, or even just standard German infantry from 1940-1943 we'd probably see a German victory.
Military History Visualized is correct, but taking the initiative and annihilating an American squad is not something these lower-quality troops would be able to do effectively. Even still, our conclusion was that they would win 46% of the time, which is impressive.
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One important thing I forgot to mention was that Russia helped quell the 1848 Revolutions in Austria, and in the German region. They assumed that the rest of Europe would appreciate Russia's help, and simply not get involved in fighting the Ottomans, who weren't explicitly a part of the Concert of Europe. But since Britain wanted to keep the balance of power they went in and interfered. France only joined because Napoleon III was eager to win a war, and what better target than Russia, who Napoleon I lost against famously.
Later, in the Russo-Turkish war, no one interfered with Russia attacking the Ottomans, until the Russians reached Constantinople. Once that happened, Britain and France moved their navies again, and Russia just made the peace treaty. No one wanted to see the Russians gobble up more territory.
Griff
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Hi Gunther.
So if you were to look at the Second World War, you'd recognize that the Soviets lost around 26 million compared to the Nazis, who lost 9 million. The Soviets Won, but at a cost.
In the Russo-Japanese War, the Japanese were much more aggressive, and so took higher casualties, but they were able to oust Russian influence in East Asia, and establish a foothold in Korea and Manchuria. They would later use these locations to launch their invasion into China in the Second World War. For them, the war was a political victory, even if it came at a high death toll.
Hope that helps,
Griff
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Hey Gunther,
If we're discussing the effect of casualties in a war, it seems slightly inappropriate to dismiss the civilian casualties, who make up a country's economic and social support, and therefore sustainability of a war...
Secondly, the fact of the matter is that regardless of if some battles were inconclusive, the Russians were unable to claim victory in any large engagement. This is why they didn't bother to continue fighting, they knew they couldn't win... Though Japan had a smaller population, their losses in the war did not completely destabilize their country.
Third, I think you're correct in that I should have displayed the casualties at some point in the video, but I disagree with your second point. Looking at casualties does not determine the victor of a war at all, there are many examples in history of this. Japan ejected Russia from influencing Asia, and was able to carry out their plans of imperialism in the 20th century because of it, for them the Russo-Japanese war was a huge success. Russia on the other hand was forced to completely withdraw from Manchuria and Korea, stop their railroad in Korea, and give up on their Asian ambitions. For that reason, Japan came out victorious, regardless of their losses in soldiers...
The Allies lost more men on the beach landings at Normandy than the Germans, did this mean the Normandy landings were a failure?
Lastly, The first line of the video says "I'd hesitate to say that Japan defeated Russia," not "Japan had a super victory over Russia." So I don't believe your last point is reasonable...
Griff
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