Comments by "Plato\x27s Cave alum" (@platoscavealum902) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics"
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🇷🇺 @QuizmasterLaw …
In fact, emigration from Russia is now much greater than official statistics show: only those who unregistered from their place of residence before leaving the country are counted as gone. To leave Russia, is enough to get an entry work visa or become an investor who applies for citizenship. For the most part, these are highly educated and skilled people. In particular, it is estimated that 200,000 scientists leave Russia every year. It is widely believed that the real volume of emigration is three to four times higher than shown by official data.
Many in Russia want to emigrate. Surveys conducted by the independent sociological agency Levada-Center note a gradual increase in the wish to emigrate among people aged 18-24 years, on the rise since 2014. In September 2019, more than half of the respondents (53 percent) of this age group expressed a desire to move abroad permanently. The trend is also visible among the middle-aged population, although to a lesser extent.
Answering the question “What makes you want to leave your country most of all?” people most often answered: a desire to provide their children with a decent future abroad; poor economic conditions in Russia; better medical services abroad; and the political situation in Russia.
[…]
One of the factors that discourage migrant workers from coming to Russia is the instability of the ruble against major world currencies. From 2014 to 2020, the ruble depreciated against the U.S. dollar by more than 2 times. As a result, the incomes of migrant workers who transfer money to their home country, most often in dollars, have also decreased.
The shortage of low-skilled labor, in turn, further exacerbates the problems of the Russian economy, which is not being restructured in favor of more modern high-tech industries with high labor productivity.
This situation may be aggravated by the accelerating emigration of young, educated Russians to North American and European countries, as well as to Australia and New Zealand.
Russia’s demographic issues have become acute enough to prompt President Vladimir Putin to state that the “problem has acquired a systemic economic character due to the lack of the required number of workers in the labor market. … Our losses are approximately 1.1-1.2 GDP percentage points per year. For humanitarian reasons, and in terms of strengthening our statehood, and for economic reasons, the demographic problem should be addressed as a major issue to be solved.”
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