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With this current virus, “we don’t have all the answers yet,” says Dr. Juan Dumois, a pediatric infectious diseases physician at Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital in St. Petersburg, Florida.
This lack of clear knowledge is an ongoing concern for many, who are trying to find the best way to both treat and prevent COVID-19 infections. Anna Giuliano, founding director of the Center for Immunization and Infection Research in Cancer at the Moffitt Cancer Center in Tampa, says that it’s too soon to speculate on whether this particular virus will impart immunity.
For one, it appears that some people who get COVID-19 may not develop antibodies to the virus. Additionally, there are still many other uncertainties related to the body's immune response to this particular pathogen.
“What I can say is that we desperately need research to answer a series of questions," she notes.
Sumit Chanda, director and professor with the Immunity and Pathogenesis Program at Sanford Burnham Prebys Medical Discovery Institute in La Jolla, California, concurs. “The key is going to be (answering) two things," he says.
How long do the antibodies provide protection?
And two, does the virus mutate to avoid the defense of antibodies?
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@Andy_Paris We used to believe that. That theory was abandoned by the 70's.
A challenge to the law of declining virulence
A talented young Australian mathematician named Robert May came across the work of his compatriot Charles Birch, an eminent ecologist working on the regulation of animal populations. Together with epidemiologist Roy Anderson, May went on to pioneer the application of mathematical modelling to the ecology and evolution of infectious disease. By the late 1970s, May and Anderson had developed the “trade-off” model for the evolution of virulence – the first conceptual framework in 100 years to challenge the Smith’s general law of declining virulence.
The trade-off model recognizes that pathogen virulence will not necessarily limit the ease by which a pathogen can transmit from one host to another. It might even enhance it. Without the assumed evolutionary cost to virulence, there is no reason to believe that disease severity will decrease over time. Instead, May and Anderson proposed that the optimal level of virulence for any given pathogen will be determined by a range of factors, such as the availability of susceptible hosts, and the length of time between infection and symptom onset.
This last factor is a key aspect of the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. The long time period between infection and death (if it occurs) means that SARS-CoV-2 has a significant window in which to replicate and spread, long before it kills its current host.
The trade-off model is now widely accepted. It emphasizes that each host-pathogen combination must be considered individually. There is no general evolutionary law for predicting how these relationships will pan out, and certainly no justification for evoking the inevitability of decreased virulence.
There is little or no direct evidence that virulence decreases over time. While newly emerged pathogens, such as HIV and Mers, are often highly virulent, the converse is not true. There are plenty of ancient diseases, such as tuberculosis and gonorrhoea, that are probably just as virulent today as they ever were.
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@thelight2230 Not in deaths per thousand people they do not. That is why the population and nations matter.
Mortality rate, or death rate,[3]:189,69 is a measure of the number of deaths (in general, or due to a specific cause) in a particular population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time. Mortality rate is typically expressed in units of deaths per 1,000 individuals per year; thus, a mortality rate of 9.5 (out of 1,000) in a population of 1,000 would mean 9.5 deaths per year in that entire population, or 0.95% out of the total.
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@demef758 I hate long posts, but at least this way you can't straight up deny reality again.
Extreme heat, strange storms, and climate change set the stage for California’s fires
The lightning storm around the San Francisco Bay Area that sparked many of the current California fires was a rare event.
“The last time we had something like this was over a decade ago, actually,” said Bennett. The fact that lightning started these fires is also noteworthy. The vast majority of wildfires in California are ignited from human sources — power lines, arson, neglected campfires, and so on.
But the fires wouldn’t have been so bad were it not also for the extreme heat that’s been baking the state for weeks.
“This is a big, big, prolonged heat wave characterized not only by hot daytime temperatures but also record-warm overnight temperatures and an unusual amount of humidity,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Los Angeles and a researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “It turns out increased humidity plays a role in why there are so many fires right now.”
A decaying tropical storm earlier this month in the eastern Pacific Ocean sent a plume of moisture over California. Amid the scorching heat, the moisture formed clouds that generated immense amounts of wind, thunder, and lightning but very little rain. “The humidity was high enough to produce these thunderstorms, but not high enough to produce significant flooding rainfall that would mitigate fire risk,” Swain said.
Local residents sit next to a vineyard as they watch the LNU Lightning Complex fire burning in nearby hills on August 20, 2020 in Healdsburg, California.
Fires like those in the LNU Lightning Complex were ignited by dry lightning, a product of moisture from a decaying Pacific storm. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Much of California’s vegetation was also parched and primed to burn, and concerns that this would be an exceptionally bad fire year started to emerge in February as the state emerged from one of its driest winters on record. This was then followed by an abnormally hot spring. “There were a number of unusually significant early-season heat waves this spring both in Northern and in Southern California,” Swain said.
And California is now experiencing the impacts of climate change, which is manifesting in fires. The weather in California is becoming more volatile. Temperatures are also rising, which is causing the state’s forests, grasslands, and chaparral to dry out even more. The state already has millions of dead trees stemming from years of drought and pests like pine beetles. More heat could stress these ecosystems even further.
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@ImperatorofNonsense Trump has repeatedly said that his decision to impose the travel restrictions on Jan. 31 was made despite objections from most of the experts on containing the spread of infectious disease.
“But we closed those borders very early, against the advice of a lot of professionals, and we turned out to be right. I took a lot of heat for that,” Trump said on March 4.
Asked by Hannity the same day about his rationale at the time he made the decision, Trump said, “I would say everybody said, it’s too early, it’s too soon, and good people, brilliant people, in many ways, doctors and lawyers and, frankly, a lot of people that work on this stuff almost exclusively. And they said, don’t do it.”
Trump repeated this claim at his town hall in Scranton on March 5, saying that as soon as he heard that China had a problem with the coronavirus, he asked how many people the U.S. had coming in from China. “Nobody but me asked that question,” Trump said. Trump added that his decision to impose the travel restrictions was made “against the advice of almost everybody.”
Everybody? Not according to Azar, who said it was the “uniform” recommendation of experts in his department.
“The travel restrictions that we put in place in consultation with the president were very measured and incremental,” Azar told reporters on Feb. 7. “These were the uniform recommendations of the career public health officials here at HHS.”
The World Health Organization cautioned against the overuse of travel restrictions, but stopped short of saying that Trump’s decision in the U.S. — or anyone else’s in other countries — was inappropriate.
“[W]e reiterate our call to all countries not to impose restrictions inconsistent with the International Health Regulations,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told its executive board. “Such restrictions can have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit. So far, 22 countries have reported such restrictions to WHO. Where such measures have been implemented, we urge that they are short in duration, proportionate to the public health risks, and are reconsidered regularly as the situation evolves.”
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@azaleataylor8031 How did Taiwan suppress this wave of COVID-19 transmission, even as Australia, Vietnam, and Singapore are struggling with an uptick of the virus?
First, Taiwan doubled down on longstanding strategies of masking, quarantine measures, and contact tracing. Long before this wave, as early as April 2020, Taiwan had already instituted mask mandates on public transportation. The government extended the mask mandate to everybody on the island and required its citizens to wear a mask outside their home.
Moreover, Taiwan extended its quarantine facilities for those entering the country from abroad to domestic COVID-19 patients. Many local governments began providing options for anyone testing positive to quarantine in a government-provided hotel or facility. The provision of quarantine facilities significantly reduced transmission of the virus within the family, thus reducing the number of cases in the community.
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@harukrentz435 As of February 2020, about 13,000 American troops. 300,000 Afghan soldiers. The United States has spent an estimated $2,261,000,000,000, or more than $2 trillion, on the war effort.
Now what is your point? That 4,500 US soldiers could do what 313 thousand troops could not do?
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