Comments by "Ante Bratinčević" (@antebratincevic6764) on "Why did experts fail to predict Russia's invasion of Ukraine?" video.

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  5. The West underestimated Russia, first expecting a collapse after the introduction of sanctions in 2014. The West armed Ukraine thinking that the Russians were ignorant. The Russians knew that according to the plans of the West, Ukraine refused to implement the peace agreements from Minsk, and that the West prepared Ukraine for an attack on the Donbass. In February 2022, it was concentrated about 110000 soldiers in the Donbass from each side and a frontal attack Ukrainians to Donetsk would have ended with many more dead soldiers on both sides and with many more victims among civilians in the city of Donetsk, which before the war had more than a million inhabitants. The Russians did not make the mistake of WWII and Operation Barbarossa when it was obvious that the German army would enter Russia, but the Russians in February 2022 struck first and created an opportunity for themselves to shape the battlefield. With these maneuvers, the Russians managed to stretch the Ukrainian army across the south and north of Ukraine and easily occupy certain areas north of Crimea, around Kherson, Kharkov and Kiev. When the front lines throughout Ukraine were stabilized, negotiations began in Istanbul, which caused the Russians to withdraw from the vicinity of Kiev as a stimulus to the negotiations, which failed due to the cancellation of the Ukrainian side. After the conquest of Mariopol in the spring of 2022, the Russians no longer had the strength to maintain the front and before the Ukrainian offensive they retreated from the right side of the Dnieper and from the city of Kherson and from the vicinity of Kharkov, which means that the Ukrainian offensive in the fall of 2022 was largely successful. With the end of the Ukrainian offensive, the front line stabilized in the southeastern part of Ukraine, some hundred kilometers from the Russian border and about 1,000 kilometers from the Polish border, where most of the NATO logistics for the Ukrainian army came from. In a few months, the Russians built three lines of defense, the so-called Surovikin line, and the war of maneuver replaced the war of attrition with a much better position for the logistics of the Russian Army. The Ukrainian offensive in the summer of 2023 completely failed and the war of attrition continued with a smaller advance of the Russian army in the Donbass. Russians are not that dumb.
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