Comments by "Geoff Challis" (@Geffo555) on "Channel 4 News"
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@johnathanpearson3203 . What someone said? Consider this simple chronology.
1980, October-December: British intelligence and civil service officials enter into talks with representatives of the Irish Republican Army. The backchannel communications are led by the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS or MI6) – chiefly the veteran intelligence officer Michael Oatley – and members of the Northern Ireland Office (NIO).
1981, March-April: British intelligence and civil service officials step up talks with representatives of the Irish Republican Army. The communications are now shared with the Prime Minister’s Office in Number 10 Downing Street.
1981, May-July: The UK premier, Margaret Thatcher MP, personally approves the aims and wording of the negotiations. The principal backchannel link is the Derry businessman Brendan Duddy, codenamed “Soon”.
1982, October-November: Backchannel communications are frozen.
1983, February: British Labour Party politician Ken Livingstone visits the Sinn Féin MP, Gerry Adams, in Belfast.
1983, July: Gerry Adams MP invited to London by UK Labour’s Ken Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn MP.
1984: Gerry Adams MP invited to the Palace of Westminster, London, by Ken Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn MP.
1989: With the approval of prime minister Margaret Thatcher MP, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Peter Brooke MP, and senior civil servants in the Northern Ireland Office begin work on a new negotiations’ policy with Sinn Féin and the Irish Republican Army, to be implemented the following year.
1989, December: In a carefully coded message to the Republican Movement, Peter Brooke MP admits that a “military defeat” of the IRA would be difficult to envisage, during an interview with the Press Association.
1990, June-August: Backchannel contacts between the UK and the Republican Movement are renewed.
1990, September 19: Following the Irish Republican Army’s attempted assassination of Sir Peter Terry, a former Air Chief Marshal of the British Armed Forces and Governor of Gibraltar, the British premier Margaret Thatcher MP admits in an unprecedented interview that the IRA was engaged in “guerrilla warfare” and was “acting under what they regard as rules of war”.
1990, October: Businessman Brendan Duddy arranges a meeting between Michael Oatley, the SIS/MI6 officer, and Martin McGuinness, a senior member of Sinn Féin and the Irish Republican Army in the city of Derry.
1990, November 9: Under the direction of Margaret Thatcher MP and the Cabinet Office in London, Peter Brooke MP delivers the “Whitbread speech”, a copy of which was passed in advance to Sinn Féin and the Irish Republican Army. Made in London, the speech stated that “the British Government has no selfish or strategic or economic interest in Northern Ireland“. This was the UK’s most public overture to the Republican Movement in two decades and judged by many to be the beginning of the Irish-British Peace Process of the 1990s.
1991-1993: The Derry backchannel is joined by two other interlocutors: Denis Bradley, a former local priest turned community leader, and Noel Gallagher, codenamed “Tax”. The latter is a trusted friend of Derryman Martin McGuinness, GOC of the IRA’s Northern Command, a member of the GHQ Staff and Army Council, and vice-president of Sinn Féin (Gallagher also acts as an intermediary for the Irish government in Dublin and Taoiseach, Albert Reynolds TD). The UK Security Service, the SS or MI5, strongly opposes the contacts with the IRA when they are revealed within the British government, in particular the involvement of the SIS-MI6. They are later joined in this opposition by the Royal Ulster Constabulary’s Special Branch and the British Army’s Intelligence Corps.
1991, April: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1991, June: Michael Oatley, the SIS/MI6 officer, is replaced by an individual calling himself “Fred”, but whose real name may have been Colin Ferguson or Robert McLarnon (or McLaren). He identifies himself as an intelligence officer with Britain’s Security Service or MI5 acting on behalf of Peter Brooke MP, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, and the UK’s new Conservative Party Prime Minister, John Major MP.
1991, August: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1991, September: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1991, October: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1991, November: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1992, January: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1992, January 11: The establishment Times newspaper in London publishes a leaked document offering a “depressingly realistic” assessment of the Irish Republican Army by General Sir John Wilsey, the General Officer Commanding British Forces in Northern Ireland. In a secret presentation to colleagues and officials the British commander admitted that the “defeat of the IRA is not on the horizon” and that it was better led, equipped, resourced and more secure than at any time in its history. The newspaper article went on to state that the organisation was a “highly disciplined and political, motivated guerrilla army”, rubbishing government claims to the contrary as simplistic “propaganda”. The leak was widely assumed to be another overt signal from London to the leadership of the Republican Movement indicating a genuine change of policies in Downing Street and Whitehall.
1992, May: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership. British team now answering to the new Conservative Party Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Sir Patrick Mayhew MP.
1992, October: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1992, December: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1993, January: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1993, February: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1993, April: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1993, May: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1993, June: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1993, July: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1993, August: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1993, September: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1993, December: Covert negotiations between the UK and the IRA leadership.
1994, April 6-8: Temporary cessation of hostilities by the Irish Republican Army as part of secret negotiations with the UK.
1994, August 31: The Irish Republican Army announces its penultimate ceasefire after three years of intense negotiations between itself and the British government.
1996, February 9: The Irish Republican Army ends its 1994 ceasefire, resuming limited military operations in the Six Counties and the UK under a policy known as TUAS (Tactical Use of Armed Struggle). Intermittent communications with the UK government of Conservative Party Prime Minister, John Major MP, follow.
1996, November: Tony Blair MP, the leader of the UK Opposition Labour Party, and Labour’s Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Mo Mowlam MP, use a meeting in London between Sinn Féin and Labour members Ken Livingstone MP, Jeremy Corbyn MP and Alan Simpson MP, to investigate the Republican Movement’s position on future peace talks.
1997, July 19: The Irish Republican Army announces its final ceasefire, to come into effect on July 20, following pre- and post-general election negotiations with the UK Labour Party leader and newly elected Prime Minister, Tony Blair MP.
(2005, July 28: The Irish Republican Army announces a formal end to the conflict.)
Certain people just want to use the IRA connection as a way to discredit Corbyn. But you'd also have to discredit a lot of other people.
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@geniusgeneral02 . One bit..
Oil comprises 95% of Venezuela's exports and 25% of its gross domestic product (GDP),
so high prices provide a boon to the country's economy. The period from 2006 until the first half of 2014, save for a brief dip in late 2008 on the heels of a global recession, saw oil prices mostly hover between $100 and $125 per barrel. During that time, Venezuela used its revenues from high oil prices to fund its budget and wield political power. By providing subsidized oil to as many as 13 neighboring Latin American countries, most notably Cuba, Venezuela extracted political favors and attempted to build a coalition against rival nations, namely the U.S. (For related reading, see
Its oil giveaway program became more of a burden than a boon for the Venezuelan economy as oil prices collapsed toward the end of 2014. Venezuela was giving away over 200,000 barrels of oil per day – half of which goes to Cuba – reducing the amount it had available to export for profit. When oil prices were over $100, Venezuela received enough margin from exporting oil that the lower volume doesn't harm its economy. When oil dropped significantly below that price level, the country's margins were squeezed to the point where it did not meet its spending, resulting in ballooning debt.
In early 2015, Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, facing record low approval ratings brought on by the country's crumbling economy, embarked on a world tour to implore other nations with heavy influence on the oil market to take measures to push the price back to $100 or more. Maduro's desperate actions serve as a testament to oil's grip on the Venezuelan economy.
US oil prices 2014
$93.17
US oil prices 2016
$43.58
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro seems to think so. In a recent interview that appeared in Reuters, Maduro said he thought the United States and Saudi Arabia wanted to drive down oil prices “to harm Russia.”
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the same thing,with a slightly different twist: “The main reason for (the oil price plunge) is a political conspiracy by certain countries against the interests of the region and the Islamic world … Iran and people of the region will not forget such … treachery against the interests of the Muslim world.”
US-Saudi “treachery”? Is that what’s really driving down oil prices?
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It's bigger but look for it if you're genuinely interested.
1. LEAVING ON OCTOBER 31
The Halloween departure date from the EU is not 'to our advantage', the Yellowhammer document states. It falls on a Thursday, meaning banks could be forced to make changes overnight, rather than over a weekend. Friday meanwhile, marks the end of the half-term holidays for some schools so families will be returning from abroad, adding to traffic at border crossings.
2. CHANNEL PORTS
Significant disruption at ports could last for up to three months after a No Deal. The document reveals up to 85 per cent of lorries travelling through main Channel crossings 'may not be ready' for French customs. It states that in a 'reasonable worst-case scenario', the disruption could leave heavy goods vehicles facing delays of 1.5 to 2.5 days, affecting perishable goods such as foods and some medicines. France has said it will impose mandatory EU controls on the first day of No Deal.
3. DRUGS AND DISEASE
The supply of medicines to the UK could be badly disrupted, the document states. It adds that it will 'not be practical to stockpile products to cover expected delays of up to six months'. Diabetes sufferers and children with cancer are among those who could be affected. It could also be harder 'to prevent and control disease outbreak'.
4. FOOD AND WATER
The documents warn that consumers will be hit with food shortages and price rises. Under No Deal the supply of fresh food will 'decrease' and supermarket shelves will have gaps. The biggest risk is a breakdown in the supply chain of the chemicals used to treat water, which could affect 'up to hundreds of thousands' of people. The documents says low-income groups will be 'disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel'.
5. FINANCIAL SERVICES
The document states 'some UK cross-border financial services will be disrupted'. Banks and other institutions will have to switch to new systems for reporting transactions midweek. The City will also have to deal with dramatic shifts in the price of Sterling and other assets.
6. OUR DATA
The digital economy which sees consumers buying and selling goods on websites is underpinned by EU regulations on personal data. As no decision has been made yet on the handling of this data, the document says it 'could take years' to re-establish a relationship. Experts warn the scenario could result in a 'data cliff edge'. The disruption could also affect bank transfers and stop data flow from the EU to Britain.
7. PETROL SUPPLIES
Two British oil refineries could be 'inadvertently' put out of business by government plans to set most import tariffs at zero per cent after a No Deal. This could lead to around 2,000 job losses and could also spark widespread strikes and disruptions to fuel availability in some areas for up to two weeks.
8. NORTHERN IRELAND
Measures to avoid a hard border in the event of No Deal are likely to prove 'unsustainable', the document says. It states there will be 'no new checks with limited exceptions' on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. But it goes on to say that although measures will be introduced to 'avoid an immediate risk of a return to a hard border on the UK side', this is 'likely to prove unsustainable because of significant economic, legal and biosecurity risks and no effective mitigations to address this will be available'.
9. ENERGY SUPPLIES
Consumers in Northern Ireland face 'significant' energy price hikes, the document warns. A rapid 'split' in the single electricity market – put in place after the Good Friday agreement – could occur 'months or years' after Brexit and result in 'significant electricity and price increases for consumers'.
10. GIBRALTAR
The supply of goods, including food, medicine and the shipment of waste will be disputed by the 'imposition' of checks at Gibraltar's border with Spain. If the UK leaves without a deal, the 15,000 workers who cross the border from Spain each day to work in Gibraltar can expect a delay of more than four hours for 'at least a few months'. Prolonged delays 'are likely to adversely impact Gibraltar's economy', the document adds.
11. BRITS IN EUROPE
Embassies across the EU will be inundated with demands for help by confused nationals living on the Continent. There will be 'an increase in consular inquiries, with more complex and time-consuming consular assistant cases for vulnerable UK nationals', the leaked document states.
12. PROTESTS AND POLICE
Violent protests could break out in the event of No Deal, the Yellowhammer document warns. There 'may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions' as civilians deal with the shock of a No Deal departure. Police chiefs have spent months drawing up contingency plans to respond to such unrest.
13. FISHING
EU fishing boats could illegally sail into UK waters, causing clashes at sea and disruption at ports. Nearly 300 foreign boats would be fishing in British waters on day one. This would be 'likely to cause anger and frustration in the UK catching sector', with risk of smuggling and border violations, the document states.
14. SOCIAL CARE
Our already 'fragile' social care system would be hit hard by rising costs, the document warns. In a damning assessment, it says an increase in inflation could lead to providers starting to go bust by the New Year. It states that smaller care providers could start to feel the impact within two to three months, while larger firms would be affected four to six months down the line.
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